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Bob Dole Still Front Runner for Republicans in 1996, Followed by Dan Quayle and Colin Powell

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Bob Dole Still Front Runner for Republicans in 1996, Followed by Dan Quayle and Colin Powell The THE HARRIS POLL 1995 #1 For Release: Monday, January 2, 1995 BOB DOLE STILL FRONT RUNNER FOR REPUBLICANS IN 1996, FOLLOWED BY DAN QUAYLE AND COLIN POWELL Newt Gingrich in tenth place. By Humphrey Taylor Newt Gingrich may be the Republican man of the moment, the hero of their Contract For America, the architect of their dramatic election victories and the new Speaker of the House of Representatives, but he has not, as yet, managed to translate his celebrity into any significant presidential support; he trails nine other Republicans. Bob Dole, the new Senate majority leader, is still the clear front runner for the GOP nomination in 1996, among Republicans surveyed as part of a Harris Poll of 1,250 adults interviewed between December 9th and 14th. Following Senator Dole, who has the support of 29% of Republicans, are Dan Quayle (20%), Colin Powell (14 %) -- who has not declared himself a Republican let alone a presidential candidate -- and Jack Kemp (10%). No other contender enjoys the support of more than 5%of Republicans, but Rush Limbaugh, Jim Baker, Pete Wilson, Phil Gramm, and Dick Cheney all come ahead of Newt Gingrich who gets the nod from 2% of GOP supporters. It is worth noting that Dan Quayle's numbers have increased from 15 percent in December 1993 to the current 20 percent. Jack Kemp, on the other hand, has declined from 15 percent to 10 percent in a year's time. Hwnphrey Taylor is the Chairman and CEO of Louis Harris and Associates, Znc. Louis Hamis & Associates 111 Fifth Avenue NY C (212)539-9697 FAMILIARITY WITH TEN POSSIBLE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES FOR PRESIDENT Base: Republicans "I am going to read you some names of potential Republican presidential candidates. Are you familiar with (READ LIST), or not?" December August December 1993 1994 1994 % % % Those Familiar with: Dan Quayle Bob Dole Rush Limbaugh Colin Powell James Baker Jack Kemp Dick Cheney Newt Gingrich Phil Gramm Pete Wilson Lamar Alexander NIA: Not asked. TABLE 2 FIRST CHOICE FOR REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE AMONG THOSE WITH A PREFERENCE Base: Republicans who have a first choice "Who is your first choice for the Republican presidential candidate in 19961" December August December 1993 1994 1994 % % % Bob Dole 30 25 Dan Quayle 15 19 Colin Powell 19 18 Jack Kemp 15 13 Rush Limbaugh 6 6 James Baker NIA NIA Phil Gramm 2 3 L Pete Wilson NIA NIA Dick Cheney 7 9 Newt Gingrich * * Lamar Alexander *=less than 5% METHODOLOGY This Harris Poll was conducted by telephone within the United States between December 9 and 14, among a nationwide cross section of 1,250 adults. Three hundred sixty of these interviews were among those people who consider themselves Republicans. Figures for age, sex, race, education and number of adults in the household were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. In theory, with a sample of 1250, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. The sample of 360 Republicans has a statistical precision of plus or minus 5.2 percentage points. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non- response), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is difficult or impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. I COPYRIGHT 1995 CREATORS SYNDICATE, INC. ISSN 0895-7983 .
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