July 2016April 2016
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
This study was funded by State Coastal Conservancy, Bay Area Ridge Trail Council, and San Francisco Bay Trail Study; JULY 2016APRIL 2016 Acknowledgements Funding for this study was provided by the State Coastal Conservancy, Bay Area Ridge Trail Council, and San Francisco Bay Trail Project, with supplemental support from “Silicon Valley Gives.” In-kind technical assistance was provided by the City of San José and the National Park Service “Rivers Trails and Conservation Assistance” Program. Technical and modeling expertise was provided by EcoShift Consulting and the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority, with assistance from the Civic Spark Program (administered through the Local Government Commission). Development of an interactive trip-planning map that calculates carbon and cost-savings was developed by Trailhead Labs. Staff from the Rails- to-Trails Conservancy and Santa Clara County Parks also actively participated on the Planning Team. Study Information Planning Team* Study Partners* Consulting Team Janet McBride Jessica Zenk Tiffany Wise-West, PE, PhD Bay Area Ridge Trail Council City of San José EcoShift Consulting, LLC Moira McEnespy Terry Christensen Nick Wilson Bay Area Ridge Trail Council Friends of the Five Wounds Trail EcoShift Consulting, LLC (Other trail photos are courtesy of N. Wilson) Yves Zsutty Liz Westbrook City of San José Department of Parks Recreation and Peninsula Open Space Trust Jeremy Nelson Neighborhood Services EcoShift Consulting, LLC Bena Chang Will Fourt Silicon Valley Leadership Group Stephen Luther County of Santa Clara Parks and Recreation AmeriCorps CivicSpark Program Leah Toeniskoetter/Ratna Amin Barbara Rice SPUR National Park Service Rivers, Trails, & Conservation Chris Lepe Barry Bergman TransForm Rails to Trails Conservancy Employer Partners Lauren Ledbetter County of Santa Clara Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority Hewlett Packard International Technological University George Naylor Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority A total of 20 employer responses were received (the three above, plus 17 anonymous responses), Laura Thompson which represent 74,910 employees in the region. San Francisco Bay Trail Project Matt Gerhart State Coastal Conservancy *In alphabetical order by organization name Abbreviations and Acronyms AB Assembly Bill ABAG Association of Bay Area Governments AHSC Affordable Housing and Sustainable Communities AREF Auto Running Emission Factor in grams/mile from EMFAC2011 ATSEF Auto Trip Start Emission Factor in grams/trip from EMFAC2011 BART Bay Area Rapid Transit BREF Bus Running Emission Factor in grams/mile from EMFAC2011 CAPCOA California Air Pollution Officers Association CARB California Air Resources Board CEQA California Environmental Quality Act CMP Congestion Management Plan EMFAC Emissions Factor: CARB’s tool used to calculate current and future inventories of motor vehicle emissions as the state, county, air district, air basin or air basin within the county level GHG Greenhouse gas ICP Integrated Connectivity Projects LTR Light Rail MTC Metropolitan Transit Commission MT CO2e Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide equivalent SB Senate Bill SGC Strategic Growth Council SOV Single Occupancy Vehicle US EPA US Environmental Protection Agency TAC Transit and Connectivity TAZ Traffic Analysis Zones TCM Traffic Congestion Management TDM Transportation Demand Management TOD Transit Oriented Development VMT Vehicle Miles Traveled VTA Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority Table of Contents 1.0 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Forecasting GHG Emissions Reduction Potential Under Study Scenarios .................................................................................................. 2 1.2 Additional Modeling Results – The Power of Trails .................................................................................................................................. 5 1.3. Understanding What Prompts a Mode Shift to Trails and Transit ........................................................................................................... 5 1.3.1 Trail-related Recommendations ................................................................................................................................................................. 5 1.3.2 Transit-related Recommendations ............................................................................................................................................................. 5 1.3.3 Transportation Demand Management Program (TDM) Implementation Recommendations .................................................................... 6 1.4 Conclusion Highlights .............................................................................................................................................................................. 6 2.0 Introduction and Study Purpose ................................................................................................................................................ 9 2.1 Study Purpose and Scope ........................................................................................................................................................................ 9 2.2 Role of Local Organizations and Stakeholders ........................................................................................................................................ 10 2.3 Climate Change and Transportation Sector Pollution in California .......................................................................................................... 13 2.4 Policy Context for the Study ................................................................................................................................................................... 14 3.0 Existing and Future Conditions ................................................................................................................................................ 15 3.1 Study Scenarios ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 15 3.2 Trail Infrastructure ................................................................................................................................................................................. 18 3.3 Transit Infrastructure ............................................................................................................................................................................. 21 3.3.1 VTA Light Rail ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 21 3.3.2 Caltrain + Other Regional Rail ................................................................................................................................................................... 21 3.3.3 Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) .................................................................................................................................................................. 22 3.3.4 VTA Bus Service ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 22 3.4 Current and Future Mode Share ............................................................................................................................................................. 23 3.5 Transportation Demand Management Programs .................................................................................................................................... 24 3.5.1 Level of Participation in TDM Programs and Incentives – Current and Anticipated ................................................................................. 24 3.5.2 Effectiveness of TDM Programs and Incentives ........................................................................................................................................ 27 3.5.3 TDM Programs and Incentives Recommended for Emissions Reduction Potential Analysis .................................................................... 28 4.0 Methods to Determine Emissions Reduction Potential ............................................................................................................ 30 4.1 Quantification Methodology Selection ................................................................................................................................................... 30 4.2 Core Study Assumptions ......................................................................................................................................................................... 31 2 | Silicon Valley Trail Loop Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Demonstration Study 4.3 Strategic Growth Council Affordable Housing and Sustainable Communities Method ............................................................................ 32 4.4 Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority Countywide Model ............................................................................................................ 32 4.5 Methodology Comparison .....................................................................................................................................................................