Issue 2 (20), 2020

MFA VIRTUAL

PROMOTE

REPRESENT INSTRUMENTS BUSINESS CYBER DIGITAL COMMERCIAL PUBLIC COMMUNICATIONS

REALPOLITIK TWIPLOMACY

DIPLOMACYCHALLENGES PRESENCE TRADE

CONVENTIONALEFFECTIVENESS TECHNOLOGIES NNIS

• CONVENTIONAL DIPLOMACY • DIGITAL DIPLOMACY • QUARANTINE DIPLOMACY 5YEARS UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 1

BOARD OF ADVISERS

Dr. Dimitar Bechev (Bulgaria, Director of the European Policy Institute) Issue 2 (20), 2020 Dr. Iulian Chifu Analysis and Early Warning Center) (Romania, Director of the Conflict Diplomacy Amb., Dr. Sergiy Korsunsky (Ukraine, Director of the Diplomatic Academy under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine)

Editors Dr. Igor Koval (Ukraine, Rector of Odessa National Dr. Hanna Shelest University by I.I. Mechnikov) Dr. Mykola Kapitonenko Marcel Röthig (Germany, Director of the Representation of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Ukraine) Publisher: Published by NGO “Promotion of Intercultural (United Kingdom, Head of the Russia Cooperation” (Ukraine), Centre of International James Nixey and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs) of the Representation of the Friedrich Ebert Studies (Ukraine), with the financial support Foundation in Ukraine, the Black Sea Trust. Dr. Róbert Ondrejcsák (Slovakia, former State Secretary, Ministry of Defence) UA: Ukraine Analytica analytical journal in English on International is the first Ukrainian Amb., Dr. Oleg Shamshur (Ukraine, former Relations, Politics and Economics. The journal Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of is aimed for experts, diplomats, academics, Ukraine to France) students interested in the international relations and Ukraine in particular. Dr. Stephan De Spiegeleire (The Netherlands, Director Defence Transformation at The Hague Contacts: Center for Strategic Studies) website: http://ukraine-analytica.org/ e-mail: [email protected] Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze (Ukraine, Head Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ of the Parliamentary Committee on European ukraineanalytica Integration) Twitter: https://twitter.com/UA_Analytica Dr. Dimitris Triantaphyllou (Greece, Director of The views and opinions expressed in the Center for International and European Studies, articles are those of the authors and do not Kadir Has University (Turkey))

Analytica, its editors, Board of Advisors or Dr. Asle Toje (Norway, Research Director at the necessarily reflect the position of UA: Ukraine donors. Norwegian Nobel Institute)

ISSN 2518-7481

500 copies

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS

THE LIMITS OF DIPLOMACY’S EFFECTIVENESS ARE WHERE WE ARE ABLE TO EXPAND THEM...... 3 Interview with H.E. Amb. Dmytro Kuleba, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ukraine

DIPLOMACY IN A WORLD TO COME ...... 6 Sergiy Korsunsky

CONVENTIONAL DIPLOMACY VS. DIGITAL REALITY...... 11 Viktoriia Gulenko

DIGITAL DIPLOMACY: HOW INTERNATIONAL ACTORS TRANSFORM THEIR FOREIGN POLICY ACTIVITY...... 19 Nataliya Pipchenko

CYBER DIPLOMACY: AN INTANGIBLE REALITY OR A FAIT ACCOMPLI?...... 26 Olga Rusova

TIME FOR A NEW DIPLOMACY? ...... 34 Andriy Voynarovsky

PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT IN COMMERCIAL DIPLOMACY ...... 41 Piotr Hajdecki

“SHUTTLE DIPLOMACY” IN THE ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT: RETROSPECT AND REALITIES...... 50 Iryna Zubarenko

2 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 THE LIMITS OF DIPLOMACY’S EFFECTIVENESS ARE WHERE WE ARE ABLE TO EXPAND THEM

Interview with H.E. Amb. Dmytro Kuleba, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ukraine

New challenges of international may help in shaping public opinion, but it relations require new methods is unlikely to succeed in convincing, let us of addressing them. Is diplomacy say, judges of an international court. This is changing today or are its principles where classical paperwork is still very much and instruments still valid? needed. We sit down with our legal teams to thoroughly prepare documented claims. In a broad sense, diplomacy has always been Because we still do believe that international and remains an art of being persuasive. law matters. Despite some countries tending However, a lot has changed recently. Even to ignore it, experience shows they cannot visually. It used to be associated with men in entirely ignore court decisions. black suits and ties. Not anymore. Diplomacy in the modern world equally belongs to women as well as men. Public diplomacy can outweigh negotiations behind closed the general trend of democratisation. This Public diplomacy may help isdoors. how Thisdemocracies is not surprising function. andThey reflects serve in shaping public opinion, «but it is unlikely to succeed interests of the people who become real stakeholders. That is why communication in convincing, let us say, judges takes a central stage in decision-making. As of an international court they say, you win wars by winning hearts.

This is especially important for us right now, as the Russian aggression against Ukraine We also should not forget the much-needed has entered its seventh year. In its military consular protection, which still requires a strategy, Russia pays critical attention to using non-military means. We would simply really help much in protecting rights of our not have been able to survive in the past six citizenslot of traditional abroad. Sometimesfieldwork. Twittera consul will needs not years without gaining muscle in the new, to drive across the entire country to help a modern tools of communication. group of Ukrainian citizens in need.

At the same time, classical diplomacy has As diplomacy changes with the world and not lost its importance. National positions from one generation to another, core ideas need to be developed and outlined. Be it in remain intact. “Represent. Protect. Promote”, a verbal note or a tweet. Public diplomacy as Ukraine’s MFA motto says.

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 3 Can Twiplomacy and informal sidelines, cafes, or online communications. I negotiations be a substitute for think it is not about replacing one with the classical diplomacy? other. We should think about it in terms of added value. Twiplomacy and informal negotiations create extra space for creativity and non- How much money should a state conventional solutions. But they cannot fully spend on diplomacy? replace classical diplomacy. Each hryvnia spent on diplomacy saves There are two schools of thought in Ukraine two hryvnias on defence. Furthermore, representing polar views on the matter. diplomacy helps bring investment into Some say classical diplomacy is not relevant the country and create opportunities for anymore, and only informal channels help Ukrainian companies in foreign markets. cut deals. Others insist there is no room For example, we have now relaunched for informal negotiations, and everything our Investors and Exporters Council at should only be discussed in a formal way. MFA to help create opportunities for Both approaches seem terribly incorrect to Ukrainian businesses abroad and assist me. Decent fact-based and result-oriented foreign investors in entering Ukraine. We diplomacy is a carefully crafted mix of the work closely with Ukrainian companies two. to help them liberalise trade with other countries, establish B2B contacts with foreign partners. At the end of the day, the better they do, the better it is for Ukraine’s The limits of diplomacy’s economy. Businesses will create more jobs, effectiveness are where we pay more salaries and taxes. «are able to expand them. Meaning, practically, they are much Is diplomacy costly? Well, the famous saying, broader than we can imagine “People who don’t want to feed their army, will soon be feeding the enemy’s one,” is fully applicable in this case as well.

We used to say that all diplomatic What are the limits of diplomacy’s documents must be double-checked up to effectiveness in today’s world? the last comma. Because every word and punctuation mark matters. Now I would put The limits of diplomacy’s effectiveness are it this way: “Every tweet must be double- where we are able to expand them. Meaning, checked up to the last emoji.” practically, they are much broader than we can imagine. In the past, verbal notes were read out loud in front of a minister or an ambassador. Now they are forwarded by email or on cases. All others simply do not need WhatsApp. Channels, audiences, protocol, diplomacy.Diplomacy Looking primarily from deals outside, with sometimes difficult and etiquette may all change. But goals it may feel like progress is lacking. In fact, don’t. They are basically about making diplomacy requires a lot of patience. When people abroad admire, respect, and support years of work culminate in just one strategic your country. Be it governments, tourists, move or call. Consistent and focused work is investors, or business. To that end, one can absolutely essential to be able to use those use the UN General Assembly tribune, its opportunities appropriately.

4 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 The role of diplomacy in the post-WWII able to learn and adapt constantly. He or era has dramatically increased. It is not only about new institutions, alliances, Omni-purpose but being himself or herself. and formats. One invention boosted it to Persuasiveshe is flexible but but natural. holds hisThese or herbasic ground. skills unprecedented levels, which was aviation. have only gained value over the past decade Flights became widespread and affordable. and will surely be even more valuable tomorrow. and diplomats gained an opportunity to meetFor the at first any time place in humanand any history, time leaderswithin Dmytro Kuleba, PhD, Amb. is Minister for simply never been possible before. Previous Foreign Affairs of Ukraine. In 2003, Amb. Kuleba global10-15 hourstransportation of flight maximum.models Thisallowed had graduated with honours from the Institute incomparably fewer contact. In my opinion, of International Relations, Taras Shevchenko it is not only due to the existence of nuclear University (Kyiv, Ukraine), where he studied international law, and in 2006, he obtained a for the past 75 years. It is also thanks to Ph.D. in Law. From 2003 to 2013, he worked in thisarms enormous that global increase conflict in has the been volume avoided of different capacities at the Ministry of Foreign diplomacy. Affairs of Ukraine, including at the Permanent Mission of Ukraine to the OSCE. After quitting civil Modern communications are bringing the service in 2013, Dmytro Kuleba chaired the board volume of diplomatic contacts to an even of the UART Foundation for Cultural Diplomacy. higher level. The invention of the internet In 2014, Amb. Kuleba returned to the Ministry surely has had a profound impact on it. I am of Foreign Affairs as ambassador-at-large to introduce the concepts of digital diplomacy, intelligence will change diplomacy. And it is strategic communications, cultural diplomacy, upnow to looking us to make forward this impactto seeing work how for artificial global and public diplomacy into the ministry’s work. peace and stability, not vice versa. In 2016, Amb. Kuleba was appointed Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the Council of Could you describe an ideal diplomat Europe. From August 2019 to March 2020, Deputy of tomorrow? Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration of Ukraine. Since March 2020, he Hopefully, one not wearing a medical face serves as Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ukraine. mask. Dmytro Kuleba is the author of the book “The War for Reality: How to Win in the World of Fakes, An ideal diplomat is a cross-functional, Truths, and Communities.” agile person with principles. He or she is

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 5 DIPLOMACY IN A WORLD TO COME

Dr., Amb. Sergiy Korsunsky Hennadii Udovenko Diplomatic Academy of Ukraine

Radical transformations both in the geopolitical landscape and in the way countries conduct diplomacy are obvious. It is more apparent than ever before that the liberal world order of the post-Second World War era is coming to an end. A new incarnation of realpolitik based on a pragmatic and sometimes rough approach to international affairs demands new diplomacy. It is to be based on understanding the struggle among three competing powers – the US, China, and Russia – for regional and global dominance, deep knowledge of new technologies, analytical and critical thinking, among other crucial skills. And yet the world is not ready for this new reality, as the COVID-19 pandemic has shown.

statesman, Sir Austen Chamberlain, international affairs and economy. There addressingIn March 1936,the anannual influential meeting British of hadterms been of severe both infectious scale and diseases influence before. on Birmingham Unionist Association, spoke of Some of them were even more deadly and the “grave injury” to collective security by many of them had originated in China. But Germany’s violation of the Treaty of Locarno. now, the pandemic is happening in a tightly Sir Austen, who referred to himself as “a interconnected world stitched together very old Parliamentarian”, said: “It is not so by transportation routes, logistical chains, long ago that a member of the Diplomatic communications, and social media as Body in London, who had spent some years never before. Governments were caught of his service in China, told me that there absolutely unprepared either politically or was a Chinese curse, which took the form economically, even in the most developed of saying, ‘May you live in interesting times’. countries. As it turned out, we live in a There is no doubt that the curse has fallen world globalised beyond expectations. And on us”.1 diplomacy is a mirror to this globalisation.

It appears Sir Austen Chamberlain was a real There are different approaches to evaluate visionary. The Chinese curse has been upon the role and place of diplomacy in a world us during all those years and never left this of international politics. Among them, there world, apparently. We do live in interesting are data on diplomatic presence in the world released by the Lowy Institute in Australia aggression, trade wars – and all that right at the end of 2019. Those data are very intimes. the These midst times of the include COVID-19 military pandemic, conflicts, unseen in the history of humankind in China has overtaken the US as the biggest useful. Now it is officially confirmed that

1 A. Chamberlain, Lesson of the Crisis: Sir A. Chamberlain’s Review of Events, “The Yorkshire Post” (British Newspaper Archive), 21 March 1936, p. 11, column 7.

6 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 diplomatic power in the world2. As of this versa. Xi Jinping is not known for his Twitter year, China maintains 276 diplomatic posts, or Facebook use. compared to the 273 of the US, which consist of embassies, high commissions, consulates Those data mean that global Chinese and consulates general, permanent missions, presence is growing following the path of and other representations in countries the “One Belt One Road” initiative, bringing where there is no diplomatic relationship. power even to the smallest countries on The Lowy Institute’s ranking is based on Earth.more And political this is influence, for a reason. soft For (and example, hard) the number of diplomatic networks of 61 countries belonging to the G20 and the embassies: in El Salvador, Gambia, Burkina Organisation for Economic Cooperation Faso,in 2018–2019, Sao Tome Beijing and Principe, opened fiveand newthe and Development. First of all, it indicates Dominican Republic. geographic coverage and geopolitical reach, but also a level of globalisation and interconnectivity. There is an easily seen correlation between the number of people infected with COVID-19 in different There is an easily seen countries and the list of 10 countries- correlation between the leaders in the world in diplomacy by the «number of people infected with number of diplomatic posts. So, diplomacy COVID-19 in different countries and and globalisation go hand-in-hand: China – the list of 10 countries-leaders in the 276, United States – 273, France – 267, Japan world in diplomacy by the number – 247, Russia – 242, Turkey – 234, Germany of diplomatic posts. So, diplomacy – 224, Brazil – 222, Spain – 215, Italy – 209. and globalisation go hand-in-hand There is no surprise that seven out of 10 on this list are former empires maintaining intensive relations with former colonies, and three others – the US, China, and Brazil – are Following a persistent campaign of what playing crucial roles in politics and economy is commonly referred to as “chequebook both regionally and globally. diplomacy”, Beijing has succeeded in picking off a handful of Taiwan’s last remaining Changes in Diplomatic Presence diplomatic partners as well. Most recently,

Those recent data show the rapid rise of – Kiribati and the Solomon Islands – broke China over the past decade. In 2011, Beijing diplomatictwo countries ties in with the PacificTaiwan Islands and regionmade lagged 23 posts behind the United States. But the switch to China, reducing the number six years later it had 271 diplomatic posts of countries recognising Taiwan from around the world – just three fewer than 22 in 2016 to just 15 today.3 For Beijing, the US. And when it comes to China, those this strategy has both tightened Taiwan’s growing political isolation and increased attaches special attention to the formal China’s ability to advance its own economic diplomaticfigures are channels not occasional, of communication since Beijing in and strategic interests promoting the “One China” policy even further. addition to unofficial ones, but not vice

2 A. Ma, The US Is Losing Its Crown to China as the World’s Biggest Diplomatic Power, Think Tank Says, “Business Insider US”, 27 November 2019. 3 B. Bley, The New Geography of Global Diplomacy, “Foreign Affairs”, 27 November 2019.

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 7 All that is happening while the US New Challenges for Diplomacy diplomacy has been frozen, understaffed, The pandemic of COVID-19 is a serious of President Trump. Although the United challenge. But there are other equally deadly Statesand insufficiently still holds fundedits position since ofthe the election most issues diplomacy will be facing in the world popular place for countries to maintain to come. “Liberal world order, as we know it, embassies and consulates, it is clearly losing discredited itself and is coming to an end” – its global outreach to China when it comes to that was the message President Putin sent international presence. to the world in his now famous 24-page interview with Financial Times on the eve of G20 summit in Osaka4 last year. No surprise, when it comes to Putin. But prior to him, Will there be no more alliances dozens of publications by well-established and coalitions of the willing, Western scholars had appeared with similar «universal human rights, trusted conclusions. This is a strange example of agreements, and institutions? unanimity between the East and the West, especially taking into account that President Putin himself did a lot to destroy the good old world order while Western scholars have There are changes in other governments’ done a tremendous job promoting liberal diplomatic activities too. For example, Japan values, freedoms, and democracy.

overtaking Russia. Faced with a shifting But what does all that mean? Will there be no powermoved intobalance the fourth in placeits neighbourhood, in 2019, finally more alliances and coalitions of the willing, including an increasingly assertive China, universal human rights, trusted agreements, Tokyo has been quietly investing in its diplomatic presence for nearly a decade and principles second? Are we moving back now. The addition of seven new posts in toand the institutions? times when Will brutal profit use becomingof force rather first strategically pivotal countries such as than the rule of law was predominant in Cambodia, the Philippines, Seychelles, and international affairs? Vanuatu brings Tokyo’s total posts to 247. There is a broad consensus that a unipolar Brexit resulted in Ireland’s boosting its liberal world order ended in 2007, more network by eight posts. The Netherlands, visibly after Putin’s now famous Munich too, has linked its recent diplomatic push to speech. The war in Georgia, annexation of Brexit considerations, with seven new posts Crimea, invasion of eastern Ukraine, use in two years and more openings expected of military force and covert operations in by 2021. The United Kingdom, by contrast, Syria and Venezuela, constant provocations has closed or downgraded 11 consulates against ships and planes of NATO countries, intrusion via computer networks and from the ninth place three years ago to electronic systems around the globe, theand diplomatic11th today. offices This sinceruns 2016,counter dropping to the powerful disinformation campaigns, and commitments to open three new posts in the direct support to right-wing and populist parties constitute just a short list of the the end of 2020. new reality’s features. We can add violation Pacific and additional 12 posts globally by

4 L. Barber, H. Foy, A. Barker, Vladimir Putin Says Liberalism Has ‘Become Obsolete’, “Financial Times”, 28 June 2019.

8 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 of human rights, suppression of media, the Germans long ago, can be considered and brutal killings of critics of the Russian nowadays in a much wider sense and government both at home and abroad. And scope. The modern version of realpolitik yet, as it is not enough, we have to recognise that there is a crisis of leadership in the of absurdity, attitude toward world affairs, West and there is an unprecedented rise of combinedcan be defined with as information a pragmatic, controlto the point and China. What reality are we going to face in a distortion without any remorse toward couple of years? What can we call this new weaker and poorer nations. There are a lot emerging reality?

Some foreign policy experts say we live of examples to support this definition. in times of chaos; others insist we have succumbed to anarchy. But chaos has its The modern version of realpolitik own rules, while anarchy means that nobody can be defined as a pragmatic, follows an order. In our reality, there are no «to the point of absurdity, rules and major powers are following their attitude toward world affairs, combined with information control and distortion without any remorse own orders. The Russians are fighting tooth toward weaker and poorer nations ago.and nailChina for isa multipolarpromoting model its “One with Belt defined One Road”spheres concept, of influence trying as to it secure was two trade centuries routes from its inner provinces to the EU, extending its “neighbourhood” as far as to Italy. The The world of new realpolitik means you United States is clearly reconsidering its role can have two (or even more) independent in world affairs under the slogan “America and contradictory tracks existing in parallel First”. All three major powers are involved in without intertwining. Yes, Russia is an the construction of the new world. aggressor, but France, Germany, and Italy will trade with it extensively. Yes, Germany supports Ukraine, but Nord Stream 2 will moving from the territory of economy and be built. Turkey is a strategic partner of securityWe must to recognise the sphere that of thisideology fight andis quickly social Ukraine, and yet the TurkStream pipeline values. Russia is the world champion in is built. Turkey is a strategic partner of the creating parallel realities that undermine United States, and yet it has bought S-400 initial beliefs about the existence of truth. surface-to-air missile system from Russia. If there is no truth, then there are no values It is a NATO member refusing to allow but a brutal force of a regime in power. China is trying to control how information spreads despite being threatened by Russia and the militarisationNATO fleet bases of Crimea. in the Black Sea even it denies all wrongdoings, insisting that the Chineseand influence social it modelwith soft best power. suits Of complex course, The modern realpolitik can be characterised modern societies. through several distinctive features. First of all, there is a growing mistrust among The World of New Realpolitik people, between people and governments, between governments and states, states So, what is it? It appears the answer is and international institutions, and between pretty clear – the current order brought institutions themselves. A signature under upon us by three “majors” can be best agreements means much less compared to described as the reincarnation of the world that in the good old times. The leadership of new realpolitik. This term, coined by crisis is immense and widely spread around

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 9 the globe (and the pandemic has proved this That means we will be living in interesting times in the world to come. of strategic vision and understanding, personalagain). Populism, interests, nationalism, and unaccountability insufficiency Diplomats should be smarter, better have become so common that there is no equipped with modern knowledge and need to specify the country or the region technologies, think more critically and where they persist. analyse more deeply than ever before. Diplomacy must be better represented and Recent reports presented at the World much more active in promoting dialogue Economic Forum’s Davos Summits of 2019 and cooperation. Critical thinking should and 2020 screamed about unprecedented become a normal way of thinking, and income and social inequality as a result situation analysis must be included in the of last decade’s developments, whether list of crucial skills for training diplomats. we talk about a particular country or at This is the only way to preserve the culture the global level. Finally, we have to deal of diplomacy and our common future. with virtualisation of literally everything.

will soon rule our lives in both positive Ambassador, Dr Sergiy Korsunsky serves as the andAugmented negative reality manner. and artificial They are intelligence already Director of the Hennadii Udovenko Diplomatic here. That is why the Realpolitik invented Academy of Ukraine since October 2017. His by Ludwig von Rochau in the nineteenth diplomatic postings include: Ambassador of Ukraine to Turkey in 2008–2016, Director-General current realpolitik we live in. of the Economic Department at the Ukrainian century is a very simplified version of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 2006–2008, In this new reality, even such a conservative Minister-Counsellor and Acting Ambassador at tool as diplomacy has to change. Formal and the Embassy of Ukraine in the USA in 2000–2005. Ambassador Korsunsky has extensive experience with one-on-one talks with fewer details in foreign policy, strategic planning, and analysis, availableofficial negotiations to the public. are Twitter now has substituted already including energy, trade, and investment issues. He become an instrument to evaporate notes is a well-known expert on geopolitics and energy and formal proclamations. Social media security, and a prolific speaker and lecturer both tell diplomats more about events and in Ukraine and abroad. Dr Korsunsky has authored tendencies than traditional news outlets more than 300 publications in the Ukrainian and do. Technologies similar to DeepFake are international media. entering the real world while distorting it.

10 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 CONVENTIONAL DIPLOMACY VS. DIGITAL REALITY

Viktoriia Gulenko Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine 1

Rapidly changing environmental conditions, technological development, and the emergence of artificial intelligence inevitably encourage diplomats to seek ways to remain relevant given the volume of information, speedup of the processes, and the need to improve the quality of services and change communication methods. Will diplomacy remain competitive in the era of new threats and opportunities? This article provides a glance at the alternatives to be used along with traditional tools of diplomacy to fulfil complex multifunctional diplomatic tasks for the benefit of foreign policy.

What Is Diplomacy and What Are Its government or one or the other policy Main Functions? direction. Nuances of politics, culture, and worldview based mainly on age-old Diplomacy as an instrument of foreign traditions and sometimes on the religion of policy is seen, in its conventional sense, the receiving state can differ considerably as an art of conducting negotiations from those of the sending state. This makes it between representatives of states who help governments to implement, as well and interests between the two states. as protect, interests of their states abroad. more difficult to search for common grounds According to the Vienna Convention on Promotion of national interests of the Diplomatic Relations of 19612, the main sending state with an eye on policy and functions of a diplomat are to represent a interests of the receiving state may vary state in another state, protect its interests and interests of its nationals, negotiate, generation of alternative scenarios for promote friendly relations between the thesignificantly. promotion This of shouldnational envisageinterests thein states, and develop economic, cultural, and a particular state. A multilateral format provides for negotiation in the interests of the home state. However,scientific relations.the context of diplomatic work is changing constantly. If we take a Negotiation is a dialogue between two bilateral format, there are many cases of or more parties with an aim to reach a transformations in the foreign policy of the state depending on the change of the beneficial outcome. The Oxford Advanced Learners Dictionary defines negotiation as

1 Foreign Affairs of Ukraine. The views expressed in the article are the author’s only and do not necessarily reflect those of the Ministry of 2 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, “United Nations Treaty Collection”, 1961 [https://treaties.un.org/ pages/viewdetails.aspx?src=treaty&mtdsg_no=iii-3&chapter=3&lang=en].

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 11 a “formal discussion between parties who and other authorities, exercising rights are trying to reach an agreement”.3 The UN of supervision and inspection, extending Charter considers it as a “peaceful mean assistance to vessels and aircraft registered 4 At in that state and to their crews, and many the same time, negotiation is a challenging others. ofprocess the pacificand its settlement success depends of disputes”. on the political will of the parties as well as the All these complex processes provide preparedness of the diplomats involved. diplomats with the need to set multifunctional tasks. However, the classic performance of complex diplomatic tasks is facing in the recent decade the fastest ever Global Affairs Canada and the evolution of the information accompanied United Kingdom Foreign and by a change of mindsets of the people, «Commonwealth Office have governments, and the way business is done. been already effectively using geo- coding and social media mapping What the World Looks Like Today in to identify the needs of their the Information Age nationals abroad and to develop the most resonating messages Rapidly changing environmental conditions, technological development, and emergence

need to adapt to new realities. There is an As a general rule, negotiations lead to a urgentof artificial need to intelligence simplify processes, (AI) lead increase to the conclusion of an international agreement that should take into consideration the of information and speeding up of the interests of all parties, leaving a little gap processes,efficiency dueimprove to thethe enormousquality of volumesservices for the parties to approve it at the national in consular protection, and change the way level. However, enforcement of international messages are delivered. agreements requires the goodwill of the governments to respect them due to the AI and Big Data natural sovereignty of states and the lack of international coercive mechanisms. In this One could argue about a disruptive impact context, diplomacy represents a complex of AI applications on our societies, but we tool with a purpose to get an adversary or had better look for opportunities that AI an ally on one’s side at least for some time. can bring to facilitate the management of the increasing data volumes that an The bigger part of diplomatic work also ordinary person cannot cover. AI machines involves providing consular services and are programmed to process big data with protection. This includes facilitating travel, a multitude of algorithms, but they can including disaster and crisis management, be used to spread massive disinformation acting as notary and civil registrar, campaigns and as a tool to predict possible performing other administrative functions, humanitarian crises, forecast election safeguarding the interests of minors results and economic development, design and other persons lacking full capacity, multilevel negotiations, and help to provide representing nationals before tribunals

efficient public services. 3 Oxford Advanced Learners Dictionary, n.d. [https://www.oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com/]. 4 Charter of the United Nations, 26 June 1945 [https://www.un.org/en/sections/un-charter/un-charter-full-text/].

12 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 While some countries are struggling with interests. According to Graham Nelson, the human rights and promotion of democracy, and Russia and Brazil are still depending Source Unit (OSU), “It’s not about what data on foreign internet companies to sustain canfounder do for of diplomacy. the UK Foreign It is how Office’s diplomacy Open the Web, the liberal democratic order is can remain relevant unless we embrace facing a new reality as China is investing in data”.6 AI, intending to be the world leader in AI theories, technologies, and applications by Social Media 20305. Information and data security are at the heart of Chinese national security Social networking is one of the most popular and defense strategies. Facial and voice online activities worldwide. Social media recognition technologies, drones and companies such as Facebook, Twitter, and automated submarines, social networks and payment systems are the main features interaction and targeted messaging. They of its authoritarian governance exercising areWeibo not are only very a influentialtool to connect in terms people; of online all tight control over population. That may of them have their audience, purpose, and be a reason why the United States and outcome. most EU countries are highly opposing the dissemination of 5G on their territories. To understand the tendency and the share of social networks worldwide, one should look Global Affairs Canada and the United at such criteria as the social network itself and the purpose of its creation, country of have been already effectively using geo- usage, distribution by age and gender. A look codingKingdom and Foreign social andmedia Commonwealth mapping to identify Office the needs of their nationals abroad and some differences among major geopolitical to develop the most resonating messages. players.at countries’ profiles can also help reveal Using the good practices of our colleagues from the UK – such as apps that gather Facebook, primarily created as a networking hundreds of thousands of multilingual tool for students, is now the biggest social news sources from around the world and network worldwide with more than 2.5 local publications and translate them into billion global monthly active users that your language, remove extremist behaviour enables a well-targeted space for promoting information and disinformation targeted ideas and interests whether they are campaigns – could ease a huge load of commercial or others. In the beginning diplomatic work, allowing diplomats to of 2020, Facebook accounted for 76% of focus on a more proactive approach to crisis all social media site visits in the United management and promotion of national Kingdom7, just like in India8. Facebook is

5 Mapping the Challenges and Opportunities of Artificial Intelligence for the Conduct of Diplomacy, DiploFoundation,

6 N. Rohaidi, Exclusive: Meet the UK’s ‘Data Diplomat’. Interview with Graham Nelson, Founder of the Open Source Unit January 2019 [https://www.diplomacy.edu/sites/default/files/AI-diplo-report.pdf]. in the Foreign Office, “GovInsider”, 12 March 2019

7 J. Johnson, Leading Social Networks by Share of Visits in the UK as of April 2020, “Statista”, 15 May 2020 [https://govinsider.asia/innovation/uk-foreign-office-open-source-unit-data-diplomat-graham-nelson/]. [https://www.statista.com/statistics/280295/market-share-held-by-the-leading-social-networks-in-the-united- kingdom-uk/]. 8 S. Diwanji, Social Network Penetration India Q3 2019, “Statista”, 07 May 2020 [https://www.statista.com/statistics/284436/india-social-network-penetration/].

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 13 actively used in the United States9 and in Russia10. accounts to make announcements and engageand ministries with the havinggeneral officialpopulation. Twitter US Since its launch in 2005, YouTube has grown President Donald Trump is known to be a from a repository of amateur videos into the 15. In February 2020, biggest online video platform worldwide, Twitter ranked second of all US16 social featuring a wide variety of content that mediaprolific site Twitter visits, user following Facebook. It is ranges from music videos to educational also very popular in the United Kingdom17 clips, political discussions, and journalistic and Russia18. investigations. In 2019, YouTube recorded an estimated 1.68 billion users and is While social networking in the United particularly popular with younger internet States, India, and some European countries users. YouTube is the most active social looks pretty much the same, statistics in network among internet users in the United such countries as China and Russia are a bit Kingdom11, India,12 and Russia13. different.

Ranking behind Snapchat, Instagram is one Although Western social networks have of the most popular social networks among teenagers in the United States and has one tend to display a preference for home-grown billion followers worldwide. Instagram is servicessignificant such user as basesVKontakte in Russia, and Ok.ru, Russians or dominated mostly by younger users below formerly Odnoklassniki19. Ok.ru, created as the age of 3514. was popular among the older rather than Twitter has become an increasingly relevant youngera platform population for finding of formerthe country classmates,20. In tool in domestic and international politics, contrast, VKontakte is used mostly by younger users below the age of 3521.

with many elected officials, governments,

9 J. Clement, Social Media Usage in the United States – Statistics & Facts, “Statista”, 19 May 2020 [https://www.statista.com/topics/3196/social-media-usage-in-the-united-states/#dossierSummary__chapter2]. 10 A. Melkadze, Ranking of Social Media Platforms in Russia Q3 2019, by Users Share, “Statista”, 03 Mar 2020 [https://www.statista.com/statistics/284447/russia-social-network-penetration/]. 11 J. Johnson, YouTube: Share of Social Network Website Visits in the United Kingdom (UK) 2015-2020, “Statista”, 7 May 2020 [https://www.statista.com/statistics/280314/youtubes-social-network-market-share-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/]. 12 Johnson, n7. 13 Clement, n9. 14 J. Clement, Countries with the Most Instagram Users 2020, “Statista”, 24 April 2020 [https://www.statista.com/statistics/578364/countries-with-most-instagram-users/]. 15 J. Clement, World Leaders with the Most Twitter Followers 2020, “Statista”, 06 May 2020 [https://www.statista.com/statistics/281375/heads-of-state-with-the-most-twitter-followers/]. 16 J. Clement, Countries with the Most Twitter Users 2020, “Statista”, 24 April 2020 [https://www.statista.com/statistics/242606/number-of-active-twitter-users-in-selected-countries/]. 17 Rohaidi, n6. 18 Clement, n9. 19 Clement, n9. 20 D. Elagina, Age Distribution of Ok.ru Users in Russia in 2018, “Statista”, 07 November 2019 [https://www.statista.com/statistics/1065018/russia-odnoklassniki-users-share-by-age/]. 21 A. Melkadze, Vk.com Users in Russia 2019, by Age, “Statista”, 09 April 2020 [https://www.statista.com/statistics/990462/vk-users-age-distribution-russia/].

14 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 Due to the Chinese government’s internet The way in which the generation X or baby censorship, Facebook, Twitter, and Youtube, boomers perceive them differs a lot from the leading international social media their view of the world. players, are all blocked in China. However, China’s social media landscape is not incomparable with its Western counterparts. Tencent’s Qzone, one of the best-known Understanding the audience social network sites, microblogging site gives diplomats the power to Sina Weibo, video sharing app Youku Tudou, «manage it and to lead short-form video app Douyin (aka TikTok) in the needed direction are just a few among the most popular Chinese social media examples22.

Today, the delivery of information should In Millennials Rising: The Next Great not necessarily be direct but should be Generation, Neil Howe and William Strauss designated to the right audience. The wrote that millennials “will correct what they youngest Americans will hear a message will perceive to be the mistakes of boomers, delivered not through Twitter but rather by placing positivism over negativism, trust via Instagram; the youngest Russians would over cynicism, science over spiritualism, prefer to receive it through VKontakte; the team over self, duties over rights, honor the Chinese will not hear it through any of over feeling, action over words”. A 2000 Western social networks. And it doesn’t New York Times review of this book, titled matter if one writes a no-name single tweet “What’s the Matter with Kids Today? Not a or if it is one of the famous politicians as Thing”, described millennials as “a cohort of long as one writes the things that people are kids who are smarter, more industrious and better behaved than any generation before”.23 the right platform and language. Today we canworried no longer about ignore in a specificthe presence country, of social using Understanding the audience gives diplomats media in our lives, and that will last for a the power to manage it and to lead in the long time. needed direction.

Mindset of a New Generation Desired Outcomes and Alternatives for Traditional Diplomacy The increasing role of social networks should be owed to the generation of millennials, who The main purpose of diplomacy is to were born at the time of active development of the Information Age. This is a generation between states using peaceful means. No that cannot imagine their life without digital oneestablish would mutuallydisagree that beneficial the traditional cooperation tools technology and social media. At the same of diplomacy like negotiations are effective for this purpose. But today we have to make them foolish but forces millennials to consider that due to the continuous digital betime, critical their about superficial the massive knowledge amount does of notthe transformation of the world and the value of information they receive through the Web. social media in everyday lives, the concept

22 J. Clement, Global Social Networks Ranked by Number of Users 2020, “Statista”, 24 April 2020 [https://www.statista.com/statistics/272014/global-social-networks-ranked-by-number-of-users/]. 23 New York Times Book Review “What’s the Matter with Kids Today? Not a Thing”, 05 November 2000 [https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/books/00/11/05/reviews/001105.05brookst.html?mcubz=3].

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 15 of delivering the message has completely changed. Social media play a prominent consciousness to change certain frameworks role in fostering a true dialogue between ofstrategy worldview to influence and behaviour. the formation of mass decision makers and citizens, diplomats and foreign publics. The promotion of state interests only in the political sphere is ineffective due to the conservatism of some societies, their between governments. Today it appears if nationalist orientation, consideration of youThis want flips to upside reach down out to the your communication counterparts partners through the prism of their interests, reluctance to progressive change, the to deliver your message to the foreign pursuit of stability that is generally normal public,in a foreign which government,will automatically first you ensure have for modern societies. Politics in its purest that your message has been heard. Without form is not interesting to the public, which realising the effectiveness of this process, is not accustomed to compromising the policymakers may lose their advantage in comfort today for a better future imposed on negotiations. them from abroad.

Public diplomacy can be differentiated into two types, according to long-term or short- Today it appears if you want to term desired outcomes. reach out to your counterparts «in a foreign government, A long-standing strategy of promotion of first you have to deliver your national interests includes branding or message to the foreign public cultural communication that is closely linked with the image of a country in the world. It helps to build cultural and social ties with a foreign audience, which would “Public diplomacy”, “cultural diplomacy”, or facilitate long-term cooperation in multiple “strategic communication”, whatever you domains. During the Cold War, for example, call it, is seen today as the most promising the United States used public diplomacy sphere of diplomacy in general. Sometimes to promote freedom and human rights as also called “people’s diplomacy”, it is a direct components of democracy and alternatives communication between government and to the Soviet authoritarian regime. Voice foreign public. The concept was invented by of America broadcasted directly into the a former US diplomat Edmund Gullion in the Warsaw Pact nations of Eastern Europe to mid-1960s to distance Western information dispel myths about the West and to support campaigns from the Soviet propaganda. values of Western democracies among Unlike propaganda, public diplomacy is European states. considered a transparent tool that a state uses to communicate with the foreign public Along with state branding exchanges of schoolchildren, scholars, and students, aiming at promoting national interests and school and university partnerships used implementingto inform and foreigninfluence policy’s overseas strategic audiences, goals. by the US during the Cold War until now have proven their effectiveness and made As experience shows, the formation of millions of people change their attitude a person’s position or change of his/her towards the West. The main objective of opinion on a particular issue is a long and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), created by President in the framework of building a long-term John F. Kennedy in 1961, is “in support of difficult process. Public diplomacy is used

16 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 America’s foreign policy” to “strengthen While searching for opinion leaders, it is democratic governance abroad”, “promote important not to forget religious leaders and American prosperity through investments communities, which may play a very strong that expand markets for U.S. exports, create political and ethical role in a society, as well 24 the receiving state. Othera level playinggood examples field for U.S.of businesses”.foreign cultural as the diaspora, which may be influential in diplomacy are: Institut Français, with its aim to spread the French language and culture, as well as establish long-term partnerships our main job should be to identify the opportunities education, science, culture, and creativity; «that new technologies could Britishwith host-country Council, with actorsa purpose in to the strengthen fields of bring to better serve diplomacy interstate ties in the arts, English, higher and foreign policy goals education, and society; Goethe Institute, aimed at spreading the German language abroad, information about Germany, its cultural, social, and political life, promoting However, using the wrong social network intercultural cooperation and dialogue, or language may lead to serious mistakes supporting the development of civil society that the ministries of foreign affairs are not structures, and promoting global mobility. always informed about. So it is better to be aware and use the opportunities of new The second type of public diplomacy technologies to facilitate better results in includes various policies aimed at fostering promoting national interests. more rapid results, sometimes called political advocacy. Political advocacy Conclusions campaigns are aimed at convincing quickly foreign audiences to support one or the Diplomacy as a tool of foreign policy other policy direction. For these purposes, requires setting multifunctional tasks. the use of social media and opinion leaders Facing rapidly changing environmental should be essential. conditions, technological development,

Whether we like it or not, we should not our main job should be to identify the underestimate the role of social networks opportunitiesand the emergence that newof artificial technologies intelligence, could in shaping the opinion of social groups bring to better serve diplomacy and foreign and encouraging the governments to take policy goals. not. Knowing how to write a note verbale is The urgent need to simplify the processes popularnot enough or unpopularanymore to decisions, be a brother-in-law justified or among the foreign public and to be able to diplomats to seek ways to remain relevant form an opinion. Instead, 280 characters of a and not increase to get confused efficiency given encourages the large tweet cope better with this task and can roll volumes of information. Improvement of the the world upside down. It is amazing how quality of services, as in the case of consular unknown bloggers create a new reality that protection, is a key to securing trust of the governments have to face in their politics. the citizens and may be used for political

24 Mission, Vision, Values, United States Agency for International Development, n.d. [https://www.usaid.gov/who-we- are/mission-vision-values].

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 17 advocacy. There is no need to reinvent the behaviour frameworks of the foreign public. wheel, but it is essential to use the best Public diplomacy gives us effective tools practices of our counterparts and private for competitiveness, self-defence, tackling sector companies. disinformation campaigns, and promoting a positive image of a country abroad. The use of different social media by applying an analytical approach identifying its It is extremely important to convey to foreign purpose, desired outcome, popularity in audiences the diversity of modern Ukrainian the country, language of communication, culture and create a new vision of Ukraine in social and gender distribution could foster a the world. This could be possible by means long-standing dialogue with foreign publics, of a long-term strategy for cultural and social aiming at the promotion of foreign policy cooperation around the world with hidden goals. Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube elements of political messaging that would remain the most popular social networks in expose common grounds between cultures the Western part of the world. Instagram and and traditions of different societies and TikTok are dominated mostly by younger Ukraine and create long-lasting ties between users below the age of 35. In Russia and the people of different states in the future. China, people prefer domestically produced networks such as VKontakte, Weibo, and Youku Tudou. Viktoriia Gulenko is a counsellor in the Directorate General for International Law of the Sustainable Development Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) of Ukraine. She Agenda, the main goal of diplomacy is has been working in the MFA of Ukraine since toAs definedserve future in the generations for better 2007 in different positions, including her posting living. Understanding the needs of new to the Permanent Mission of Ukraine to the United generations and mostly younger people Nations and other International Organizations in gives policymakers and diplomats the true Geneva (2011–2013). Her research interests cover power to reach their hearts and build self- the issues of international law, multinational reliant relationships. and public diplomacy. Gulenko is an alumna of the United Nations International Law Fellowship Change in the way of message delivery Programme (2010) and the Asian Forum on forces governments to compete for wider Global Governance (2020).

influence by changing worldview and

18 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 DIGITAL DIPLOMACY: HOW INTERNATIONAL ACTORS TRANSFORM THEIR FOREIGN POLICY ACTIVITY

Dr. Nataliya Pipchenko Jean Monet Centre of Excellence, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv

Communication technologies have created new opportunities for the promotion of states’ interests, ensuring interactive dialogue with the world. Digital diplomacy has gone beyond foreign policy institutions, reaching more target groups and changing the efficiency of the diplomatic missions’ activity abroad. After the first meeting between diplomats and officials, online technologies enable further communication through devices or social platforms as well as ensure regular receipt of information by potential audiences. As a result, the role of ambassadors is being reviewed, not in legal terms, but in the sense of transforming their activities in the host country. Sometimes diplomats can be transformed into media stars or lifesavers. The article also presents current positive practices of the USA, the EU, and Ukraine in digital diplomacy.

Technologies are changing the traditional nationality, taking into account cultural or understanding of communication in social characteristics of the communities1. foreign policy, which contributes to the transformation of feedback, conversion of Impact of the Internet on Diplomatic one-way communication into interactive Activity conversations, and development of new international ties. The interactive The development of the information components of modern communication space has led to an increase in the number of international participants. The state concepts of “sender” and “receiver” of remains one of the leading actors as the information,technologies haveturning modified them theinto classical active initiator of international communication, political actors. As a result, international which controls and manages the spheres of actors can have intense and unlimited foreign and domestic policy. Transnational corporations expand their external the audience, regardless of its location and informational and political influence on influence through collaboration with

1 This research was supported by the Erasmus+ Programme of the European Union within the Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence Project No. 611625-EPP-1-2019-1-UA-EPPJMO-CoE “Advancing European Studies in Ukraine: Interdisciplinary Approach”. The European Commission’s support for the production of this publication does not constitute an endorsement of

use which may be made of the information contained therein. the contents, which reflect the views only of the authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 19 national media or investment in foreign do not always manage the processes in the global information space and should lobbying the interests of the transnational follow the trends created by leading online owners.regional Global and media local corporations media, efficiently mediate companies. At the same time, the role of between the source of information and the an individual is also growing because each audience, disseminating their corporate person with a minimum of communication interests through news. Civil institutions skills can be a political actor using a social media account. Besides, such “new actors” as alternative political and economic ideology hacker associations, quasi-states, or gaming inor host non-profit states, organisationsprotecting the can interests shape anof communities have an impact on international social groups, supporting human rights, relations and a state’s positioning in the carrying out charitable or environmental world. Using internet communication activities, and promoting social activity. instruments allows non-state international Social and political movements of anti- policy activities as well as demonstrate other groups without formal legal status participants to efficiently conduct foreign interactglobalists, with environmentalists, their members and pacifists, external or and economic processes by attracting audiences mainly through the internet and supportersprivate influence and spreading on international ideas in the political global network. states.2 can influence foreign or domestic policies of instruments, a state’s power is determined byUnder the thepossession influence of ofinformation communication and Technologies are changing communication technologies as well as the traditional understanding the status in the modern information «of communication in space. This leads to a new international foreign policy, which contributes confrontation where a country’s desire to the transformation of for global information domination creates feedback, conversion of one-way resistance and opposition from others.3,4 communication into interactive Internet governance has now become conversations, and development a political context because government of new international ties information infrastructure on increasing internationalofficials are awareinteraction of theand impactnegative of effects of the network for development of As a result, a new model of international the world community. However, the creation politics is emerging on the internet, of double infrastructure at the national level where commercial companies and civil cannot be a counterbalance for the existing organisations, together with states, act as internet system, since states are not ready to spend money on an additional information

political actors; therefore, influential states

2 Управление международной информацией, “Международные процессы” (A. Gumensky, International Information Management, “International Processes”), vol. 8, no. 1(22), 2010 А.[http://intertrends.ru/system/Doc/ArticlePdf/585/Gumensky-22.pdf Гуменский� , access: 15 April 2020]. 3 K. N. Cukier, Internet Governance, National Interest and International Relations, [in:] D. MacLean (ed.), Internet Governance: A Grand Collaboration, “Collection of Papers Contributed to the United Nations Global Forum on

4 M. Ermert, C. Hughes, What Is in a Name? China and the Domain Name System, China and Internet Politics of the Internet Governance”, United Nations: New York 2004, р. 276. Digital Leap, Routledge: London 2003, pp. 134-135.

20 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 infrastructure that is still imperfect and skills. The advantages of digital diplomacy poorly developed. The ideas of Russia include overcoming political, economic, and Brazil on the creation of a separate cultural, and social barriers between national segment of the internet remain countries and nations, even in the face of unimplemented. Therefore, governments asymmetric technological development in should solve current international legal the world. Digital diplomacy furthers the issues in network regulation because key integration of political values and peaceful network resources (domain names, IP dialogue between different countries and addresses, internet protocols, etc.) have could be used as a basis for shaping world public opinion through the interplay of neutral. context and content of online messages. practical political significance and are not Given the prospects of growing impact of the internet on international relations, diplomatic staff should not only use the The essence of digital network as a communication instrument diplomacy is the use of methods, but also understand the mechanism of its «technologies, and instruments operation and foresee the consequences of with a profound soft ideological its use. Knowledge of the basic resources influence on the global public as of the network allows diplomats to manage well as the creation of fundamental political values and ideas or social media for supporting national interestsand efficiently or conducting use online platforms,foreign policy blogs, activity. Also, they have to understand the consequences of using the internet in the A combination of traditional foreign policy area of free speech, security, protection of activities with modern communication intellectual property rights, and privacy. We technologies allows presidents, prime should take into account that the activity of ministers, ministers, ambassadors to ministries of foreign affairs cannot be open actively use social media for communicating to a wide audience, so the rules of external with external and internal public. We can and internal communication help diplomats monitor their impact on international to interact with the target groups, ensuring a political processes. For example, BCW balance between privacy and openness. (Burson Cohn & Wolfe) conducted several studies called the Twiplomacy Study5 for The essence of digital diplomacy is the use of methods, technologies, and instruments and institutions and identifying not only theanalysing number social of mediafollowers accounts but alsoof officials ways on the global public as well as the creation ofwith fundamental a profound political soft ideological values and influence ideas leaders with the audience. According to perceived by people as own beliefs. As BCW,of efficient Twitter communicationis the most popular of platform political a result, we can see the changes in the used by government and foreign policy activities of diplomatic missions and the institutions for communicating and professional training of diplomats, who need informing audiences; Facebook is in the to have special communication tools and second, and Instagram is in the third place.

5 Twiplomacy Study, “Burson Cohn & Wolfe”, 2019 [https://twiplomacy.com/blog/category/studies/ access: 15 April 2020].

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 21 Facebook pages are more popular among Virtual Ambassador, Virtual users than Twitter accounts. Embassy, and Web Portal of Diplomatic Mission: Pros and Cons Such advantages of social media as

interactivity are used by the ministries of DiploFoundation presents the types of foreignmultimedia, affairs, diplomatic personification, missions, and diplomaticNowadays, missions a non-profit on the organisation internet, among titled cultural institutions for disseminating which are: Virtual Ambassador, Virtual Embassy, and Web Portal of Diplomatic activity of different structures, providing Mission abroad. The difference between onlineofficial services, information, and communicating coordinating with the a virtual embassy and a diplomatic online target groups. At the same time, activities platform is that Web portals are additional of the communication departments of means for providing diplomatic activity in the ministries of foreign affairs deal with the host country, while a virtual embassy providing various information on national exists only online.6 Such a virtual embassy interest; the partner with whom diplomats not only provides a full range of diplomatic interact is an independent actor associated services but also plays the role of the with any organisation. The ministry cannot randomly set communication rules and be embassy could be established for7,8: official diplomatic mission abroad. A virtual fully open to the general public. • solving the issues of representation of small or poor countries in the world; Thus, social media platforms are instruments of foreign and domestic political activity that • providing diplomatic and consular can create conditions for developing friendly services to citizens in countries where relations between countries or have a there is a small number of diplomatic missions; and social processes in the country, region, • issuing e-visas; ordestructive the world. influence The use on political,of social economic,media in • supporting low-intensity bilateral foreign policy allows: relations; • to shape ideas on the country, state • developing bilateral economic ties; power, and political leader; • advocating special political interests, etc. • to provide up-to-date information for existing and potential audiences; A virtual embassy should not take over the • to attract the attention of several target functions of traditional diplomatic missions. groups for discussing current topics; The creation of a virtual embassy is necessary in cases when there is a need for interaction • to support direct communication with between the foreign policy institution and different groups (feedback); • embassyhigh-ranking in the officials host country. with the host country’s to increase the volume of quality traffic foreign policy office, and there is no physical on the official Web portal.

6 J. Kurbalija, E-Diplomacy and Diplomatic Law in the Internet Era, “DiploFoundation”, 2013

7 D. Kappeler, J. Kurbalija, A. Matteucci, et al., Virtual Embassies: Different Perspectives, “Second International [https://www.diplomacy.edu/sites/default/files/PeacetimeRegime-JK%20Chapter.pdf access: 15 April 2020]. Conference on Web Management in Diplomacy”, DiploFoundation, 2002. 8 D. Kappeler, Websites as an Instrument of Diplomacy, “Second International Conference on Web Management in Diplomacy”, DiploFoundation, 2002.

22 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 Besides the described virtual diplomatic abroad and enhancing security of Web missions, there is also a Data Embassy9, infrastructure and data sharing based on cloud technologies. In particular, the the state’s territorial boundaries. The MyServices platform now supports the initiativedefined as is the being possession developed of a sinceserver 2017 outside by administrative activity of 95,000 users in 275 the Estonian government for ensuring state US diplomatic missions abroad. In addition, e-services and data continuity as well as it is planned to develop the platforms for avoiding negative effects of natural disasters, service (PaaS) and service infrastructure cyberattacks, power outages, or other crises. (IaaS) that will integrate the US Department Such an “embassy” builds on the principles of State into a common cloud @State system. of cloud technologies, but the state retains complete control and jurisdiction over the data and systems. The Data Embassy will have the same protection and immunity from 2003 to 2011, as a traditional embassy, meaning the approximately 40 virtual Estonian government proposes to apply «US representations were the principles of the Vienna Convention established, but after analysing regarding “physical” embassies and their their activity in 2011, it was decided to discontinue such websites because they were not popular Creatingterritorial virtual affiliation embassies to cyberspace. or virtual task forces allows us to involve experts in several programmes at once. Virtual meetings Virtual Presence Posts (VPP)11 without diplomatic meetings but save time and money.of officials Therefore, do not information replace technologies confidential US diplomatic missions. Such missions are necessary for modern diplomacy and representfull-time employeesthe country belong in a region to the through official allow non-stop interacting with the public, websites for supporting the diplomatic diplomats, and governments. relations or holding public events, while the diplomats make targeted visits as needed. In Current Practices of the USA, the EU, general, from 2003 to 2011, approximately and Ukraine in Digital Diplomacy 40 virtual US representations were established, but after analysing their activity Since the mid-1990s, the US Department in 2011, it was decided to discontinue such of State has been using the internet for websites because they were not popular. In multilingual communication with the international community and has created a virtual diplomatic missions abroad – the separate intranet for secure communication US2019, Virtual the Embassies State Department to Iran (ir.usembassy. retained five with missions abroad. The current Strategic gov) and San Marino (sm.usmission.gov), Plan for 2019-202210 focuses on deepening the US Virtual Consulate in Guinea-Bissau IT modernisation of diplomatic missions (gw.usmission.gov), as well as the US Virtual

9 Data Embassy, Estonian government, 2017 [https://e-estonia.com/solutions/e-governance/data-embassy/ access: 15 April 2020]. 10 IT Strategic Plan for Fiscal Years 2019–2022, United States Department of State, 2018 [https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/FY-2019-2022-ITSP_FINAL-508._with-Signature.pdf access: 15 April 2020]. 11 U.S. Government’s Overseas Presence, Office of Origin: M/PRI, 2 FAM 130, United States Department of State, 2019 [https://fam.state.gov/FAM/02FAM/02FAM0130.html access: 15 April 2020].

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 23 Presence Post in Seychelles (mu.usembassy. YouTube, thematic accounts have been gov) and Comoros (mg.usembassy.gov). opened on national social media (Sina Weibo, Tencent Weibo, Flickr, or Storify), The State Department develops innovative indicating that the EU wants not only to projects and services on the use of social communicate with its audience in native media for promoting US foreign policy languages but also to take into account interests. In particular, accounts have been cultural features of different regions of the created on such media platforms as Twitter, world. For the correct Web presence of the Facebook, YouTube, Flickr, and Instagram. European Commission, the Europa Web Guide,12 Twitter provide information in Arabic, legal, technical, visual, and contractual rules, Spanish,For example, French, seven Portuguese, official Russian, accounts Farsi, on has been which created. defines Within the official the Europeaneditorial, and Urdu. US diplomatic missions have 1,159 Union, digital diplomacy instruments accounts on various social media; therefore, are used for supporting the EU’s political priorities, developing a common position on social media by the US government agencies international events, promoting economic havefor better been management, developed. In official addition, rules separate of using attractiveness of the European region, or online platforms, the Smart Traveler personal and professional communicating. Enrollment Program (step.state.gov) and MyTravelGov (travel.state.gov), have been Among the digital diplomacy tools of the created for travelling Americans. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, there is an online platform “Friend” (friend.mfa. The essence of the EU digital diplomacy is to gov.ua) for registering Ukrainian citizens form a positive media space on the regional and providing support in case of emergency. development of the European community The directorate-general for consular service and foreign policy initiatives of the Union of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine using online tools. In particular, more than developed an online platform “Trip Advisor” 216 accounts open on various social media (tripadvisor.mfa.gov.ua), which together platforms (Facebook, MySpace, Hyves, with “Friend” promotes safe travel of LinkedIn, Twitter, Blip, Flickr, Picasa, Daily Ukrainians abroad, protects their rights and Motion, YouTube, and Vimeo) for numerous interests, as well as seeks to create a positive attitude toward the work of Ukrainian consuls within the idea of #ConsulNearby. placeEU institutions, in the world allow for reachingEuropean the officials audience. and Based on these platforms and accounts of TheEuropean European thematic External projects Actionto keep theService, first Ukrainian diplomatic missions on Facebook, without replacing national foreign ministries, the programme “Protection” has been successfully complements the activity of launched for helping Ukrainian citizens who diplomatic missions of the EU member states were stranded abroad after the closure of through effective communication with the borders and the interruption of passenger world community using social media.

Intraffic the programmesince March of 2020. the Cabinet of Ministers delegations abroad have been created on of Ukraine, among the tasks of the Ministry socialAbout media; 142 official in addition accounts to the of globally the EU of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine attributed to digital diplomacy, there are the following:

popular profiles on Facebook, Twitter, and

12 The Europa Web Guide, European Commission, 2019 [https://wikis.ec.europa.eu/display/WEBGUIDE access: 15 April 2020].

24 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 • the development of existing consular Innovations change the intellectual information systems (Visa, e-Consul, EU parameters of international relations and Visa Information System, “Friend”) for the nature of foreign policy institutions, the purpose of providing online consular shaping global awareness on the course services; • the integration of consular information systems into public registers and the missionsof international abroad. The events location and of a influencingdiplomatic provision of data exchange in “Trembita,” missionthe efficiency during of the the development MFA and diplomatic of ICTs which is developed and implemented is not so important because the access to with the support of the EGOV4UKRAINE the necessary information can be ensured and funded by the EU and its member through diplomatic online platforms. The states (Estonia, Denmark, Germany, beginning of 2020 demonstrated that ICTs Poland, and Sweden); and their skilful use can assist diplomats during organising day-and-night support of • the introduction of e-consular registration citizens abroad, conducting online meetings in Ukraine’s missions abroad. at various levels, creating online platforms The use of social media as an important for diplomatic activity, and disseminating diplomatic tool for informing foreign thematic cultural, economic, or social audiences about Ukraine and its foreign information about the country. policy is carried out through active communication of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Facebook, Twitter, Nataliya Pipchenko, Dr.Sc. (Political Sciences), YouTube, Instagram, and Telegram. is a professor at the Institute of International Since 2014, as a result of the aggravation Relations, Taras Shevchenko National University of Ukrainian-Russian relations, the of Kyiv, and Expert at the Jean Monnet Centre Ministry of Foreign Affairs revised the of Excellence. Since 2017, she is the consultant instruments for supporting Ukraine’s on communication at the Organization for foreign policy interests and initiatives, as Democracy and Economic Development – well as intensified the work of Ukrainian GUAM. Her research interests cover the issues diplomatic missions. The ministry of public and digital diplomacy, international improved information content of its online communication and global development, the platforms, introduced thematic sections activity of EU institutions in communications. She on foreign policy initiatives, carried out a has more than 100 academic articles and books, rebranding, and intensified multilingual among which are textbooks on digital diplomacy. dialogue with the public.

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 25 CYBER DIPLOMACY: AN INTANGIBLE REALITY OR A FAIT ACCOMPLI?

Dr. Olga Rusova Hennadii Udovenko Diplomatic Academy of Ukraine

A constantly changing international environment and a fast-paced advancement of information and communications technologies (ICTs) essentially modify the traditional ways of diplomacy. In the digital age, the use of e-tools has become a daily routine for diplomats, and the developments in the cyber realm define the global political agenda, transforming the mechanisms of multilateral cooperation. Meanwhile, the digitalisation of diplomatic interactions is intrinsically tied with cyber risks. The lack of a solid legal framework for regulation of the virtual space inevitably leads to conflicts. This article highlights new features that cyber diplomacy brings into international relations, raising the issue of online security, appropriate response to cyberattacks, and a right for self-defence.

Theoretical Background and Case of an international society.1 However, Studies before continuing with the analysis of cyber

For many centuries, diplomacy has been a to sort out the sometimes overlapping terms privileged kind of statecraft in the spotlight suchdiplomacy as public, implications, digital, and I would cyber propose diplomacy first. with nation-states and political elites. But ever since information and communications avoid confusions and misunderstandings. technologies (ICTs) began to play a crucial Clear definitions may be useful in order to role in guiding public opinion, diplomacy Let’s start with public diplomacy and its direct link to the soft power of states with the use of Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, a wide range of determinants, among orseems YouTube to havefor communication been simplified with through a vast which are political values, culture, foreign audience. The need to integrate digital policy, and, of course, public diplomacy. It is technologies into the diplomatic process focused on nation branding and at the same gave way to cyber diplomacy. States tend time is a part of a national identity. This is to adopt broad strategies for addressing a strategy of a government aiming to shape various issues and use wide networks of public opinion and attitudes to its country ICTs to express their current views and ideas abroad, which could affect the foreign policy about the future. They incorporate virtual course of other states. Public diplomacy puts reality into their foreign policies and use an emphasis on two-way communication cyber diplomacy to promote their concept and open dialogue.

1 F. T. Burroughs, The Diplomatic Tower of Babel, “Public Diplomacy Magazine” (University of South California, Center for Public Diplomacy), 22, 2019, p. 52.

26 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 As for digital diplomacy, it can be viewed of independence. Through the existence as an extension of soft power and public of private ccTLDs, Kosovo would control diplomacy, and is equipped with a new an essential part of their information and digital toolkit and techniques. It calls technological infrastructure that can affect attention to a broader perspective of the telecommunications, power grids, banking, role of digital technology in diplomacy and electronic surveillance. as not only an instrument or medium of communication but also as a different mode National governments recognise the internet of thinking about and practicing diplomacy.2 domain as a component of their sovereignty. Furthermore, through its domain, Kosovo can lobby for recognition of the country.4 and cyber diplomacy, the latter puts stress On the one hand, this situation leaves little onAnd the finally, use toof distinguishdiplomatic betweentools, and digital the room for manoeuvre on the global stage; diplomatic mindset, to resolve issues arising on the other hand, it stimulates the use of in cyberspace.3 Of course, the number of its soft power and focus on the promotion those matters can be enormous. They vary of Kosovo’s culture and history by means from completely peaceful initiatives such of online tools. In this regard, a matter as multilateral forums or global climate of nation branding is a crucial problem, campaigns to highly damaging ones such as because foreigners view the country as propaganda and espionage. associated with corruption, social unrest, and territorial disputes. However, the primary concern here is not only to draw attention to the wording but also to dwell on the practical examples of cyber diplomacy in action. In this regard, National governments recognise the case of Kosovo is a notable example. the internet domain as a Despite the fact that Kosovo declared its «component of their sovereignty independence from Serbia in 2008 and has been recognised by many countries, including three permanent members of the UN Security Council (the UK, France, and the It is worth mentioning that the MFA of Kosovo US), for most of the EU states and Canada, has elaborated a National Strategy on Digital it still remains an online limbo. To date the Diplomacy, which includes such interesting Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and ambitious projects as App Camp, Wiki and Numbers (ICANN) has been refusing Academy, Digital Kosovo Initiative, Kosovo to grant Kosovo its own country code top- Diaspora Agency, and #InstaKosovo (its level domain (ccTLD). For this reason, diplomats around the world are engaged in propagating the young republic as the New Europe). Kosovo’s political leadership also thirdKosovo countries. has to run Under its internetthese circumstances, traffic either succeeded in being added to the Microsoft aunder ccTLD “foreign is not flags”just aor symbolic route it indicator through list of supported countries and was, so to

2 C. Bjola, Digital Diplomacy 2.0: Trends and Counter-Trends, [https://revistadigital.sre.gob.mx/images/stories/numeros/n113/bjolai.pdf access: 02 May 2020]. “Revista Mexicana de Polí�tica Exterior”, 113, 2018, p. 3 3 S. Riordan, Cyber Diplomacy vs. Digital Diplomacy: A Terminological Distinction, University of Southern California, Center on Public Diplomacy, 12 May 2016 [https://www.uscpublicdiplomacy.org/blog/cyber-diplomacy-vs-digital- diplomacy-terminological-distinction access: 07 May 2020]. 4 M. J. Randazza, Kosovo’s Digital Independence: Time for Kosovo’s ccTLD, “Wisconsin International Law Journal”, 33(4), 2016, p. 670.

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 27 say, “recognised” by Facebook. Today, you A big trend for the de facto states is to create websites from which they espouse digital diplomacy is enforced by YouTube, the virtue of their territories. They claim Flickr,can find and KosovoGoogle+. on In Google2017, a Maps.Twiplomacy Their two things: that they already function as report announced the MFA Kosovo account stable, effective entities and that they are ranked 31st out of 50 “Best Connected World democratic. They seek to attract foreign Leaders” in terms of interconnections with investment and tourists but admit that it is other diplomacies on social media.5 Thus, extremely hard to do so. Skype and Amazon it means that gradually ICTs have enabled do not include these territories, and they Kosovo to move beyond the borders of the do not feature on Google Maps or similar

global processes, and to be perceived by the prevented by the absence of ccTLD. For this widerregional public conflict, as a fully to be sovereign more present state without in the reason,sources. Nagorno-Karabakh And definitely the online usually progress borrows is the unanimous de jure recognition. Armenia’s domain, Somaliland uses .com, and Transnistria – .org.6

One more interesting example is Estonia, relations between states in a small Baltic state that has succeeded in cyberspace may positively making the digitalisation of public life a part «or negatively affect even of its soft power, a driving force of public partnerships established long ago diplomacy, and today sets trends in the cyber

the world to open a Data Embassy in another country.realm. Estonia In 2018, became the Estonian the first Parliament country in The case of such self-proclaimed states as passed an act that allowed it to host critical Transnistria, Northern Cyprus, Somaliland, databases in Luxembourg. This is not an Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia, and embassy in the traditional diplomatic sense, Abkhazia is different. Their “independent” and while the founding agreement does status was gained by means of hard power. take into account the Vienna Convention These state formations succeeded to on Diplomatic Relations, it is something establish governments and courts; they completely new under international law. It control their territories and possess the is fully under the control of Estonia but has other characteristics of statehood without the same rights as physical embassies, such being recognised. However, they are much as immunity.7 Certainly, it is a breakthrough less active in the cyber domain. We are not in cyber diplomacy. even able to talk about any strategic vision in this respect, which could be a backup Yet another signal of interest resides in the means in terms of their international merging of the state and private sectors in recognition. cybersphere. For instance, Data Embassy is

5 A. Visvizi, D. L. Miltiadis (eds.), Politics and Technology in the Post-Truth Era, Emerald Publishing Limited: Bingley 2019, p. 200. 6 N. Caspersen, The Politics of Getting Online in Countries that Don’t Exist, “The Conversation”, 14 January 2014 [https://theconversation.com/the-politics-of-getting-online-in-countries-that-dont-exist-21399 access: 11 May 2014]. 7 Data Embassy access: 08 May 2020]. , e-Estonia Briefing Centre, n.d. [https://e-estonia.com/solutions/e-governance/data-embassy/

28 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 an extension in the Cloud of the Estonian was predominantly resulting in an arms government, designed in collaboration with race, today states possessing technical such companies as Cybernetica, Dell, EMC, capabilities compete in cyberspace. OenNode, Telia, and Ericsson.8 This is a new tendency with the direct implementation of Both strong and weak actors try to control a multistakeholder approach, which can be adopted worldwide. whether setting “the rules of the game” this “battlefield” by various means, From Cyber Diplomacy to Cyber view to defend themselves from malicious Politics actionsor filtering and theeven internet cyberattacks. content But with it is thean outstanding issue: whether cyber threats Today we can spend long hours arguing can or should be perceived as a peril for whether the cyberspace is as virtual as we state sovereignty and what is more – call used to think or has a direct impact on what for a military response. is happening in real life. In this context, I would suggest considering it as another dimension of reality, and contemporary politics is not an exception. All known forms it is an outstanding issue: of political interaction, be it cooperation or whether cyber threats can or «should be perceived as a peril be ready to jump in. Taking into account the for state sovereignty and what is growingconflict, demandnumber offrom people the worldwho have leaders access to more – call for a military response to the internet and advanced technologies, the cyber domain turns into a critical security issue and should be attributed to high politics. Cybersecurity remains a matter of national security and protection of a country’s Cyberspace requires a different level of interests, although governments are address in addition to the other three gradually moving the debates over safe already existing – “human”, “states”, and and stable connectivity infrastructure “international system”, emphasising the ever more toward intergovernmental separation between the “social system” fora and bilateral agreements. Along this and the “natural environment”.9 And this line, the UN has formalised a multilateral new level is characterised by a plethora of interdependent players. It makes diplomacy through the establishment of the UN Group more vulnerable and fragile. In other words, ofapproach Governmental to cybersecurity, Experts (GGE) 10 specifically in 2004, relations between states in cyberspace intended to “advance responsible State may positively or negatively affect even behaviour in cyberspace in the context of partnerships established long ago. If during international security”. The group’s mandate the Cold War, the Soviet-American rivalry covers the following topics:

8 Ibid. 9 S. Abedi, The Priorities of Cyber Diplomacy in the Rouhani’s Government, “Modern Diplomacy”, 02 December 2019 [https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2019/12/02/the-priorities-of-cyber-diplomacy-in-the-rouhanis-government/ access: 10 May 2014]. 10 A. Calderaro, Overcoming Fragmentation in Cyber Diplomacy: The Promise of Cyber Capacity Building, Italian Institute for International Political Studies, 02 April 2020 [https://www.ispionline.it/en/pubblicazione/ overcomingfragm entation-cyber-diplomacy-promise-cyber-capacity-building-25418 access: 04 May 2020].

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 29 • Existing and emerging threats; Security at the UN since 2011. Thus, the • How international law applies in the use two countries demonstrated a concern that of ICTs; information content itself could represent a threat to national security and set out a • Norms (non-binding), rules and series of measures for maintaining sovereign principles of responsible behaviour of control of their “information space”.13 States; • Indeed this contradicted the Western • Capacity building.11 approach to “cyber security”, but what is Confidence-building measures; notable is that it mirrored the situation Basically, the GGE works on the elaboration in the UN Security Council with the of principles that states should obey in voting on important political issues. cyberspace, generating recommendations Thus, a certain ideological split, fuelled that can stimulate further consultations on by the primacy of national interests, their implementation. But one drawback that resulted in the “refashioning” of the GGE format and establishment in 2019 of an the GGE operates on the consensus basis, and Open-Ended Working Group (OEWG). It ifsignificantly at least one slows of its down members the process were against, is that confrontations, but was framed as a forum released, which happened in 2017. whereactually any reaffirmed interested UN the member abovementioned state could a jointly prepared final report wouldn’t be participate, underlining the inclusiveness Previously, in the GGE Report 2013, it was of the recently founded entity. Civil society concluded that the international law and and industry representatives became the the UN Charter should be applicable in new stakeholders in this process, and may cyberspace, but disagreements arose about how to do it. The discussion collapsed around international law and internet governancedefinitely contribute models. to the negotiations ground over the rights of states to respond towhen internationally the group wrongful could not acts find committed common But what gives a cause for concern is that through the use of ICTs and the applicability from now on the work on the future binding of international humanitarian law in norms for cyberspace will be conducted on cyberspace.12 The opposing parties were the two parallel tracks and this may dilute the United States and the Russian Federation, main focus. Under these circumstances, it is which were aggravated by the extremely very easy to massively politicise the problem, unfavourable geopolitical environment connected with the illegal annexation of Crimea. An additional variable in this already and in such a way that the workflow will complicated equation became China, which Thesimply UN get still stuck remains with aterms unique and international definitions. has been the Russian ally in promotion of a Draft Code of Conduct for Information of global issues. It is possible to say with platform for the identification and mitigation

11 Group of Governmental Experts, [https://www.un.org/disarmament/group-of-governme ntal-experts/ access: 12 May 2020]. Office for Disarmament Affairs, United Nations, n.d. 12 S. T. Colatin, A Surprising Turn of Events: UN Creates Two Working Groups on Cyberspace, NATO CCD COE Law Branch, n.d. [https://ccdcoe.org/incyder-articles/a-surprising-turn-of-events-un-creates-two-working-groups-on- cyberspace/ access: 10 May 2020]. 13 D. Stauffacher, UN GGE and UN OEWG: How to Live with Two Concurrent UN Cybersecurity Processes, “ICT4Peace to Jeju Forum”, 30 May 2019 [https://ict4peace.org/publications/un-gge-and-un-oewg-how-to-live-with-two- concurrent-un-cybersecurity-processes/ access: 09 May 2014].

30 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 for rivalry and warfare, where the interests from developing legally binding norms for of states may clash. cyberconfidence domain, that butthe everyworld jointcommunity effort helpsis far building trust between the actors, raising awareness of the coming threats, and enhancing transparency and predictability guidelinesWhen it comes to follow to “offline” (treaties, or customary “classical” among the states. At this point of time, we international conflict, the parties have clear institutions to appeal to (International Court “red lines” in cyberspace, answering the oflaw, Justice, general Internationalprinciples of law, Criminal etc.) or Court).official questionsneed a clear of roadwhat map,is allowed which definesand what the is not, who is responsible, and what the is beyond the threshold of the use of force? punishment for a particular cybercrime OrBut howwhat is should this virtual be done borderless if a cyber spaceconflict – should be. In this case, the pieces of state where vital national interests of states are practices are highly important. infringed upon and the repercussions are noticeable in the physical world – regulated? Publishing of national strategies and This is exactly the discourse in the frame action plans, exchange of experience in repulsing cyberattacks domestically will does not mean that the absence of a cyber- set the precedents that can complement of which the discussion flows. Of course, it international law. Capacity building is leaves the cyberspace uncontrolled. As was an essential component in this regard. mentionedspecific system before, of the international UN Charter legal serves rules as Supporting the establishment of national the basic set of norms, but it does not give structures and internal mechanisms on a comprehensive answer to all emerging countering cyber threats, sharing the lessons questions. learned on resilience measures, organising specialised courses of study, professional Let us explore more precisely the trainings, conferences, and workshops are Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attack not only useful for the bridging of digital against Estonia in 2007 and refer to the UN divides between the parties engaged but Charter Article 51, which says that states also a big investment in their sustainability can legitimately use force in self-defence in relevant to cybersecurity. in proportion to the injury suffered.14 The Security Dilemmas in Cyberspace response to “a significant armed attack” and an armed attack with a cyber one. Against There is no doubt that the internet is the thisfirst pointbackground, at issue islegal whether experts we canadvise equate to most powerful information source, which turn to the measurement of the material not only is used for communication or damage that has been caused. In this case, entertainment but also poses certain security the cyberattacks targeted websites of the risks connected with data protection, human Estonian president, government, parliament, rights violations, and breach of international and prime minister, political parties, media law. Thus, we observe a shifting of focus outlets, and major banks. Some of them were from the societal aspect of information blocked, degraded for days, or slowed down dissemination to its protection. The their work. And despite the fact that the “weaponisation” of data creates a new space functioning of virtual entities was harmed,

14 S. Soesanto, S. F. D’Incau, The UN GGE Is Dead: Time to Fall Forward, European Council on Foreign Relations, 15 August 2017 [https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_time_to_fall_forward_on_cyber_governance access: 03 May 2020].

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 31 the disruptive actions came at a high cost, a use of force”.16 In the commentary to the with an estimated economic impact between rules, the authors note that generally “[a] 27 million and 40 million US dollars.15 In cts that injure or kill persons or damage or view of this, we cannot call it an “attack” destroy objects are unambiguously uses of with non-material effects, but still, was it force” and where cyberattacks have similar enough to apply legally binding norms to the consequences, they are “highly likely” to perpetrator? constitute use of force.17 In reality, these statements echo the main principles of the Another matter of concern is Article 5 of the UN Charter named before but, unfortunately, Washington Treaty. In 2007, Estonia had have no legal power and may be used as a been already enjoying its full membership theoretical basis for future work in this area. in NATO. Legal instruments to prove that the abovementioned cyberattack should be In terms of the ongoing global discussion treated in the same way as a military one on responsible state behaviour and could have enabled the Estonians to trigger international law in cyberspace, the EU is Article 5. However, it did not happen, not an active contributor as well. In June 2017, even because of legal collisions, but most EU ministers of foreign affairs came up with likely due to the unwillingness to start a a joint EU diplomatic response to malicious cyber activities under the title Cyber no civil casualties and the economy of the Diplomacy Toolbox (CDT). The idea is about victimreal-life party military was not conflict devastated when at there large. were the application of sanctions mechanism aiming to develop signalling and reactive To bridge existing legal gaps, an international capacities at the EU and member state level group of experts under the initiative of the Tallinn-based NATO Cooperative Cyber potential aggressors, taking into account Defence Centre of Excellence issued the thewith necessity the aim toand influence proportionality the behaviour of the of Tallinn Manual on the International Law response.18 Of course, the concept is not Applicable to Cyber Warfare in 2013, with an new by itself, because the EU has been using expanded 2nd edition – Tallinn Manual 2.0 it for the past three decades. This kind of – in 2017. The textbooks represent a restrictive measures may become a universal comprehensive study, covering both the remedy to “punish” those who do not play by most severe cyber operations and common the rules. Here the problem also lies in how cyber incidents between states. With to turn sanctions into an effective external regard to the use of force in cyberspace, action (the EU Common Foreign and Security Rule 11 of the Tallinn Manual states: “A Policy), implementing them proportionally cyber operation constitutes a use of force to the committed crime, and this would when its scale and effects are comparable certainly require unanimity among member to noncyber operations rising to the level of states on the Union’s cyber engagement.

15 S. Li, When Does Internet Denial Trigger the Right of Armed Self-Defense?, “Yale Journal of International Law”, 38, 2013, p. 182. 16 M. N. Schmitt (ed.), Tallinn Manual on the International Law Applicable to Cyber Warfare, Cambridge University Press: New York 2013, p. 47. 17 S. Haataja, The 2007 Cyber Attacks against Estonia and International Law on the Use of Force: An Informational Approach, “Innovation and Technology”, 9(2), 2017, p. 166. 18 E. Moret, P. Pawlak, The EU Cyber Diplomacy Toolbox: Towards a Cyber Sanctions Regime?, European Union Institute for Security Studies (Brief Issue), July 2017 [https://www.iss.europa.eu/content/eu-cyber-diplomacy-toolbox- towards-cyber-sanctions-regime access: 09 May 2020].

32 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 Conclusion For this reason, it is urgently needed to keep the dialogue going within the UN GGE and OEWG, despite the substantial differences of will not replace the “old style” practices but opinions. willIn the certainly twenty-first become century, an cyberinalienable diplomacy part of them. While enhancing communication The development of legally binding norms and establishing strong linkages between and international law in cyberspace remains politicians and people, it will further a challenge for global leadership. There is function as an international platform for no certainty about their attribution, the producing new ideas, social movements, and conditions under which countermeasures global trends. This is a moment of transition should be taken, and their proportionality. – an era of rapid change at the intersection It may be reasonable to use sanctions of technology and foreign policy, where the as a tool to constrain those who seek to work of diplomats is to increase the speed compromise international legal principles at which governments can respond to that in virtual reality. But the sanctions change.19 mechanism is rather sophisticated and demands a single approach to cybersecurity and digital policy. Due to this, it is necessary to intensify the collective efforts of the like- The development of legally minded partners (not only states but non- binding norms and international governmental actors as well) in order to «law in cyberspace remains a share their experiences regarding the use challenge for global leadership of cyberspace. Only by expanding their cyber capacity building can the diplomatic channels of communication via the internet be safer and more reliable. In this sense, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic gives an additional impetus to these transformations, pushing the whole Olga Rusova, PhD in Political Science, is a world into cyberspace. It is certain that Chief Specialist at Odesa Regional Office of nobody could predict online diplomacy the Hennadii Udovenko Diplomatic Academy becoming the only possible way to interact of Ukraine. In the 2019/2020 academic year, even for a limited period of time. The she took part in a nine-month post-graduate value of “personal diplomacy” increased diploma programme in the theory and practice of International Relations and European stronger than ever before and accelerating Integration at the Estonian School of Diplomacy. thesignificantly, decision-making making process. reliable partnerships Olga is the author of 12 scientific articles and contributed to one collective monograph; she has It is clear enough that in the post-coronavirus been a participant of more than 20 Ukrainian world, the digitalisation of diplomacy will and international workshops and trainings. continue, facing all the threats coming Her research interests are the foreign policy of from the cyber domain. The protection of Germany and Poland, issues related to the course critical infrastructure will be a primary of European integration process, and the EU task, placing the problem of cyber hygiene security policy. on both domestic and international agenda.

19 21st Century Statecraft, “Diplomacy in Action”, the US Department of State, 20 January 2017 [https://2009-2017.state.gov/state craft/overview/index.htm access: 02 May 2020].

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 33 TIME FOR A NEW DIPLOMACY?

Dr. Andriy Voynarovsky Hennadii Udovenko Diplomatic Academy of Ukraine

This article reflects the impact of economic fallout and the coronavirus pandemic on diplomacy. The paper focuses on the current state of international relations, work of international organisations, and the tools of diplomacy. One of the aspects mentioned is digital diplomacy and how it will change the diplomacy we are used to.

Introduction order) and was brought down by Bismarck’s politics and the Franco-Prussian War The history of diplomacy is usually dated (1871). European diplomacy turned into a back to the fourteenth century BC. In the cold-blooded game of power politics.1 earliest periods, special missions were being exchanged between ancient civilisations of During the twentieth century, diplomacy Egypt and Mesopotamia. Later diplomacy and the world changed very quickly. A new type of diplomacy emerged after World War important event that caused a change in II. It consisted of bilateral or multilateral medievalchanged diplomacy and improved. and developments А particularly in relationships, traditions of protocol and international relations (IR) was the Peace etiquette, and powerful international organisations as a forum for peaceful brought the Thirty Years’ War to end and settlement of disputes and a deterrent establishedof Westphalia a ofnew 1648. system The of treaty IR finallybased to the waging of aggressive wars. This on its fundamental principles – a state’s process opened doors for small and post- sovereignty, collective (European) security, imperial states. The character of diplomatic the balance of power. In essence, it meant interaction between old and new players the birth of new rules of conduct among at different levels was determined by sovereign and “equal” states. This system survived for about three hundred years. new world order. Several key elements of diplomacy had international law as a defining part of the been elaborated: resident ambassadors, Today there is a global international system secret negotiations, ceremonial duties and with 193 member states in the UN. Global protocol, and professional approach to communication has become much easier diplomacy. and faster; humans have become more internationalised. In the nineteenth century, the concept of the balance of power in IR was reconstructed by Digital Diplomacy Austrian chancellor Klemens von Metternich (who opposed the forces of liberalism and “My God, this is the end of diplomacy!” said democratisation and defended the old Lord Palmerston, British prime minister

1 H. Kissinger, Diplomacy, Simon & Schuster: New York 1994, pp. 17, 121.

34 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 and foreign secretary, after receiving the format. Now all of these practical skills are 2. On important in daily diplomatic work, and there is no other way. headsfirst telegraph of government message was in thesent. 1850s Swedish Prime04 February Minister 1994, Carl theBildt first and email US President between Bill Clinton couldn’t have known how quickly communications would change in A new type of diplomacy the near future. On that same day ten years emerged after World War II. later, Mark Zuckerberg founded Facebook, «It consisted of bilateral which has rapidly become one of the biggest or multilateral relationships, social networking sites in the world. On traditions of protocol and etiquette, 21 March 2006, @jack (aka Jack Dorsey, and powerful international organisations as a forum for new platforms have become tools for digital, peaceful settlement of disputes public,Twitter’s and founder) Twitter sent diplomacy. the first tweet. These

“Twitter and other social media tools are a way to abstract foreign policy from state- The United States has cancelled at least two to-state interaction and instead ‘pivot to summits it planned to host in 2020, including the people’,” said Anne-Marie Slaughter, a the meeting of G7 foreign ministers that is former director of policy planning in the now happening online. As the global crisis US State Department (2009–2011).3 These threatens to alter the world balance of are artfully chosen words. Nowadays, when power, NATO’s top diplomats abandoned traditional diplomacy is under quarantine, plans to meet in person; the European the digital diplomatic realm is booming. Union has scaled back its schedule; a major Ministries of foreign affairs have turned international conference on climate change to social media to communicate with in Scotland was called off, and many lower- stakeholders; governments have launched level UN gatherings have been scrapped social media campaigns that feature their entirely.4 On 24 March 2020, Minister of coronavirus-related activities. Digital Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba tools have two big positive effects on real policy. They foster the exchange of ideas minister in Europe.5 Diplomacy at the between policymakers and civil society. madeUnited theNations, first including virtual visit in the by UN a Security foreign Diplomats and public servants’ are using Council, and elsewhere has now moved to the internet to find, analyse, and manage phones, emails, and virtual meetings. With relevant information, react to events, as face-to-face meetings increasingly rare, well as communicate with colleagues diplomacy by teleconference and secure and negotiate draft texts in electronic video has become the norm, offering easy

2 Digital Diplomacy; E-diplomacy; Cyber Diplomacy, DiploFoundation, 2019 [https://www.diplomacy.edu/e-diplomacy access: 19 April 2020]. 3 A. Sandre, Twitter for Diplomats: A Guide to the Fastest Growing Digital Diplomacy Tool, DiploFoundation, 10 February 2013 [https://www.diplomacy.edu/blog/twitter-diplomats-guide-fastest-growing-digital-diplomacy-tool access: 06 May 2020]. 4 M. Lee, E. M. Lederer, Global Diplomacy under the Gun in the Time of Coronavirus, “The Associated Press”, 04 April 2020 [https://apnews.com/d61a53d19d262c3cf604cec6f4e52fad access: 19 April 2020]. 5 Germany to Help to Ukrainians in Distant Countries to Return Home, “Interfax-Ukraine”, 04 April 2020 [https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/649624.html access: 22 April 2020].

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 35 outs for those unwilling or unable to engage diplomatic corps played the leading role in delicate or controversial negotiations.6 in this campaign. “‘Wolf warrior’ Chinese diplomats have sought to outdo each other Particularly in the case of digital diplomacy, by challenging narratives about COVID-19, there are many questions regarding while propagating disinformation about diplomatic protocol, etiquette, and data the origins of the virus,” said Robin Niblett, security of the exchange of information director of Britain’s Chatham House.8 But between parties. There are many examples China’s actions have done more harm than good. The Chinese diplomats used on a country, especially on decision-making Twitter and Facebook (blocked in China) duringof cyberattacks elections. known Virtual for theirreality influence is an for this, and sometimes their publications important part of national security. That is were undiplomatic. In Venezuela, Chinese why platforms used in diplomatic work or online communications of a head of state Caracas should “put on a face-mask and or government must be protected. Effective shutdiplomats up”. That tweeted retort that was thein response officials to in organisation of multilateral summits and Venezuelans referring to COVID-19 as the international conferences online requires “Chinese” or “Wuhan” virus.9 not only high-tech platforms but also new methods of work. Analysts say the pandemic revealed China’s willingness to expand its use of Use of Pandemic in Diplomatic disinformation campaigns – previously Endeavours focused on undermining pro-democracy voices in Taiwan and Hong Kong – to the In the absence of in-person diplomatic wider world. As early as 2015, scholars discussions, some countries, such as Russia from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced and China, seek to exploit the crisis to International Studies predicted that the further weaken international institutions. People’s Liberation Army would use Twitter Russia’s disinformation is designed to to deliver propaganda to new audiences sow distrust among the allies of the West. Russia drafted two UN General Assembly China”.10 This and other similar cases give resolutions aimed not so much at defeating rise“to influence to questions the about global the conversation role of diplomacy about COVID-19, but more at weakening sanctions. in a world where reality and the virtual Those attempts were blocked at the United sphere are combined. Political experts Nations.7 and data scientists are speaking about the importance of new topics on the diplomatic China has been in the coronavirus agenda and features of international disinformation game too. China’s negotiations in areas such as cross-border

6 Lee, Lederer, n4. 7 Ukraine Blocks Another Russian Draft UN Resolution Aimed at Sanction Lift, “UNIAN”, 22 April 2020 [https://www.unian.info/politics/ukraine-blocks-another-russian-draft-un-resolution-aimed-at-sanction- lift-10969064.html access: 30 April 2020]. 8 J. Dettmer, China’s ‘Wolf Warrior’ Diplomacy Prompts International Backlash, “VOA News”, 06 May 2020 [https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/chinas-wolf-warrior-diplomacy-prompts-international-backlash access: 07 May 2020]. 9 S. Bengali, A. Su, ‘Put on a Mask and Shut up’: China’s New ‘Wolf Warriors’ Spread Hoaxes and Attack a World of Critics, “Los Angeles Times”, 04 May 2020 [https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-05-04/wolf- warrior-diplomats-defend-china-handling-coronavirus access: 06 May 2020]. 10 Ibid.

36 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 privacy, e-commerce, and international But some countries use data as a tool to cybersecurity, to name a few. They call it “data diplomacy”.11 and try to spread it to other countries. They areinfluence using cyber and manageforce to citizens’gather intelligence, behaviour, The key will be the accuracy and reliability spread disinformation, or steal research. of the information, provided by combining China sells large-scale surveillance in Africa all aspects of data diplomacy and science and Asia. Russia uses troll armies and diplomacy. Any successful diplomatic hacker collectives as a new face of Moscow’s mission will depend on it. The contemporary international policy.14 Nowadays we see news phase of globalisation, which has created an about hacker attacks on pharmaceutical unprecedented era of technological change, companies, medical research organisations, has led to a revolution in communication, and universities that are working on which requires diplomats to be cautious and COVID-19 vaccine development.15 This factor fast thinkers.12 changes everything related to geopolitics and world economics, but it also sets a precedent Information is received and sent faster for the future upgrade of international law than ever before. Human activities are and world organisations. generating large volumes of data with a big potential, especially for diplomats. Big data which they are most relevant: information The key will be the accuracy and gatheringcould benefit and the reporting; fields and meeting functions the for reliability of the information, expectations of government service delivery «provided by combining all (consular affairs); better understanding aspects of data diplomacy and people’s perceptions and behaviour science diplomacy. Any successful (communication, public diplomacy, and diplomatic mission will depend on it negotiation); tracking programmes and progress over time and space (trade and development); tracking developments over short timeframes (humanitarian affairs and On the basis of this situation, diplomats emergency response); identifying new forms should use diplomatic experience and of evidence and accountability (international negotiating skills to strengthen transatlantic law).13 Countries and governments should digital policy dialogue, especially around 5G, invest in technical infrastructure, cyber protection systems, and training. multilateral diplomacy. artificial intelligence, future of the UN, and

11 B. R. Jacobson, K. E. Höne, J. Kurbalija, Data Diplomacy: Updating Diplomacy to the Big Data Era, DiploFoundation, February 2018, p. 4. 12 K. Mayer, Open Science Diplomacy to Tackle the COVID-19 Pandemic, S4D4C, 17 April 2020 [https://www.s4d4c.eu/open-science-diplomacy-to-tackle-the-covid-19-pandemic/ access: 30 April 2020]. 13 Jacobson et al., n11, p. 6. 14 C. Clüver Ashbrook, From Digital Diplomacy to Data Diplomacy, International Politics and Society, 14 January 2020 [https://www.ips-journal.eu/regions/global/article/show/from-digital-diplomacy-to-data-diplomacy-3993/ access: 05 May 2020]. 15 S. Lyngaas, State-linked Hacking Continues amid Race for Coronavirus Treatments, US and UK Agencies Warn, “Cyberscoop”, 05 May 2020 [https://www.cyberscoop.com/coronavirus-research-hacking-warning/ access: 06 May 2020].

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 37 Quarantine Diplomacy change but also about the emergence of new deadly viruses. The lessons of the In the last two years, economists and Ebola outbreak have not been learned by either leaders of states or international approaching economic crisis and a global organisations. The level of health care recession.financiers But have nobody been could talking say what about would the continues to be inadequate, especially in be the reason behind it. The new coronavirus developing countries. In this situation, the pandemic has become the cause. The world leading place has been taken by medical has changed dramatically in the three months diplomacy, which includes high-level since the last update of the World Economic negotiations between national leaders Outlook. Countries are implementing and international public health actors and necessary quarantines and social distancing their counterparts in the field, including practices to contain the pandemic, while the host country officials, nongovernmental world has been put in a lockdown. April Fitch organisations, private sector companies, Ratings expects world GDP to contract by and the public. The exchange of information 3.9% in 2020, with contractions of 5.6% and on the treatment of the infected, as 7% in the US and Eurozone, respectively.16 All well as obtaining the necessary medical these aspects of economic, social, and medical equipment and personal safety equipment, policy have also instantly changed diplomacy is an important part of diplomats’ work and foreign policy. nowadays.

A striking example of contemporary Ukrainian medical diplomacy was sending the leading place has been taken a team of Ukrainian doctors to Italy to help by medical diplomacy, which combat the COVID-19 pandemic and share «includes high-level negotiations experiences.17 Furthermore, Ukrainian between national leaders and planes “Mriya” and “Ruslan” owned by international public health actors the state-run Antonov Airlines have and their counterparts in the field, been working with several countries and including host country officials, providing air transportation of the crucial nongovernmental organisations, private personal protective equipment from sector companies, and the public Asia to Europe and other destinations. They include Canada, Austria, the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Kuwait, Poland, Portugal, The global coronavirus pandemic has Qatar, Slovakia, Spain, Switzerland, and the demonstrated that globalisation and US.18 The importance of this cooperation human activity are not only about climate with Ukraine during the pandemic has

16 Coronavirus Impact: Research Highlights (Links to a Selection of Fitch Ratings’ Coronavirus Content – Week Ending April 24, 2020), access: 27 April 2020]. “Fitch Ratings”, 24 April 2020 [https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10119870 17 President Signed a Decree on the Assistance to Italy in Combating the Coronavirus Pandemic of Ukraine, 03 April 2020 [https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/prezident-pidpisav-ukaz-pro-dopomogu- italiyi-v-borotbi-z-pan-60489 access: 29 April 2020]. , The Presidential Office 18 C. Miller, Trump Called Ukrainians “Terrible People”. They Are Airlifting Tons of Lifesaving Medical Supplies to the US with the Biggest Cargo Planes in the World, “BuzzFeed News”, 17 April 2020 [https://www.buzzfeednews.com/ article/christopherm51/coronavirus-ukraine-biggest-plane-in-the-world access: 20 April 2020].

38 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 been noted in his video speech by NATO “China is carefully reshaping its image Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.19 damaged by the outbreak, but the fact that the Chinese government delayed a timely But not only Ukraine is using the time of crisis response and led to an international crisis to gain political points on the international will make the mission almost impossible,” stage. Active medical diplomacy is used as said Alfred Wu, associate professor at the a soft power in foreign policy by China, the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the USA, France, and Cuba. Each state has its National University of Singapore.21 own goals. China and the US continue to compete for world leadership, especially in France and Germany make statements on Europe and in relation to the World Health the reform of WHO and try to manage the Organization. situation in the EU on their own. But in a situation prevailing in the world, the EU During March and April, China sent medics, continues to balance between the US and masks, ventilators, and shipments of other China. French President Emmanuel Macron precious protective equipment to the has questioned China’s virus response, countries in the midst of the coronavirus telling the Financial Times, “There are outbreak. But all these actions were coupled clearly things that have happened that we don’t know about”. At that time Britain’s to praise China in public. Observers say Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said it Chinawith diplomatic is embarking request on for“mask foreign diplomacy” officials could not go back to “business as usual” with China.22 the virus around the world to suffering criticismbecause as it the prefers country to where be seen the fightingdisease As for Cuba, this country has still succeeded had begun. This campaign was a success in in playing a key role in the war against some countries, such as Serbia, Hungary, COVID-19. Havana has sent medical teams Cambodia, and others. But most leaders, to 19 countries including Italy, Andorra, experts, and medical professionals remain Angola, Jamaica, Mexico, and Venezuela – a wary of China’s coronavirus data, and total of about 900 doctors and nurses so far. nobody has forgotten its missteps in the The numbers are increasing. It is not a new early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak. They story: For nearly 60 years, Cuba has been include suppressing early warnings and sending health care professionals around hiding information from its citizens and the the world as part of a concerted campaign of rest of the world.20 medical diplomacy.23

19 Ukraine Helps NATO Fight COVID-19, “Corona24.news”, 15 April 2020

20 A. Ma, China Is Attempting to Win Political Points from the Coronavirus with ‘Mask Diplomacy’ – But It Mostly Isn’t [https://www.corona24.news/c/2020/04/15/ukraine-helps-nato-fight-covid-19.html access: 20 April 2020]. Working, “Business Insider”, 18 April 2020 [https://www.businessinsider.nl/analysis-china-coronavirus-political- points-mostly-not-working-2020-4/ access: 23 April 2020]. 21 K. Zhai, H. Wu, Virus Diplomacy: As Outbreak Goes Global, China Seeks to Reframe Narrative, “Reuters”, 06 March 2020 [https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-diplomacy-an/virus-diplomacy-as-outbreak-goes- global-china-seeks-to-reframe-narrative-idUSKBN20T14C access: 18 April 2020]. 22 D. Kang, China’s Diplomats Show Teeth in Defending Virus Response, “The Associated Press”, 18 April 2020

23 T. Fawthrop, Cuba’s Improbable Medical Prowess in Asia, “The Diplomat”, 24 April 2020 [https://apnews.com/11356a590ecee0572545b3ffb7de0d5b access: 19 April 2020]. [https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/cubas-improbable-medical-prowess-in-asia/ access: 26 April 2020].

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 39 Currently, global health programmes experts but also on the international policies continue to ascend the political agenda of the countries, which can be leaning towards protectionism. This is especially initiatives offer open data sources, collecting important for countries where international informationin scale and from influence. various Countlesssources: newThe trade makes up a large share of the economy. Human Coronaviruses Data Initiative, for example, collects patented knowledge about Conclusion the virus; Wikimedians pool all COVID- 19-relevant information and resources in Global lockdown has expedited the digital Wikidata; the Johns Hopkins University transformation process of social life and Center for Systems Science and Engineering the work of diplomacy and government. shares the collected data in Github; the Theory is being put into practice, and this OECD collects open data sources; the Virus provides the framework that will determine Outbreak Data Network of the Go Fair our future. Health issues have become Initiative develops standards and makes increasingly preeminent in the evolving recommendations for infrastructures. The global diplomacy agenda. More leaders are COVID-19 pandemic presents a major test thinking about how to structure and utilise for our science, economic, political, and diplomacy and science in pursuit of global international system, and humanity. The health goals. world must unite the existing initiatives and accelerate the exchange of needed Diplomacy is a conservative substance, information and support science diplomacy which changes as societies develop. History to help address the current crisis. suggests that changes in diplomacy always happen eventually, but it offers no guidance When the pandemic eases and some on how those will unfold or how long it will restrictions are removed, world leaders take. COVID-19 has prompted reactions should discuss ways to live in a new world, similar to that of Lord Palmerston, but this is ways of reforming WHO, and border crossing not the end of diplomacy. This is the time to protocols. adjust to a new reality.

Diplomats play an important role now and will be important in the future, as each Andriy Voynarovsky, PhD, is a senior specialist country will strive to ensure security from at the Professional Development Center of the future similar crises and to preserve the Hennadii Udovenko Diplomatic Academy of rights of its citizens to cross the borders Ukraine at the MFA of Ukraine. His research of other states freely, in accordance with interests include diplomatic history, digital current international agreements. The new diplomacy, and Ukraine’s role in the Baltic-Black criteria for global health programmes will Sea area.

depend not only on qualified doctors and

40 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT IN COMMERCIAL DIPLOMACY

Piotr Hajdecki Ex-commercial diplomat of Poland 1

Commercial diplomacy is an important part of diplomacy. It is likely that in post- COVID-19 times, it will become even more important as a means contributing to faster economic recovery of countries. Performance measurement has been gaining importance in commercial diplomacy practice. It is not only about controlling people, identifying weak points and dysfunctions, and possible repressions, but also serves many positive purposes (e.g. improving operations, building trust with stakeholders, or enabling data-based advocating for higher budgets). The article will discuss what metrics can be used to measure performance in commercial diplomacy.

The recent trend is clear: Commercial concerned about their national economies. diplomacies make greater efforts to measure It will inevitably result in increasing the impact of trade support services and protectionism, promotion of “made in” to use formal performance indicators and products, and preference for domestic targets2. Performance measurement in suppliers and contractors, creating a big commercial diplomacy is on the rise. challenge for commercial diplomats. It will most likely bring in increased importance This trend is accompanied by an increasing of public aid/public support for market role of commercial diplomacy3 and a success. This, in turn, will increase the role shift in expectations of business towards of lobbying, public affairs, and government commercial diplomats4. In post-COVID-19 relations. In diplomatic world, one could times, commercial diplomacy will most hear that some countries have already been likely be appreciated even more as a means preparing additional corpus of commercial to get out of the economic crisis faster. The current situation makes countries more their country in post-COVID-19 times. diplomats to fight for economic interests of

1 The author presents private opinions accumulated by over 15 years’ experience in commercial diplomacy and private sector. The opinions and positions presented in the text are not the opinions of the author’s current or previous employer or any institution he cooperates with. 2 A Guide to Commercial Diplomacy, International Trade Centre: Geneva 2019, p. 5. 3 D. Lee, H. Ruel, Introduction: Commercial Diplomacy and International Business: Merging International Business and International Relations, [in:] H. Ruel (ed.), Commercial Diplomacy and International Business. A Conceptual and Empirical Exploration, Emerald Group Publishing Limited: Bingley 2012, p. xv; O. Naray, Commercial Diplomacy: A Conceptual Overview, Conference Paper at 7th World Conference of TPOs, The Hague, The Netherlands, 2008. 4 Compare: M. Kostecki, O. Naray, Commercial Diplomacy and International Business, Discussion Papers in Diplomacy, Netherlands Institute of International Relations “Clingendael”, April 2007, ISSN 1569-2981, pp. 8-9.

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 41 There is also a shift in expectations of servants, as they are paid not only salary business towards commercial diplomats, but also overseas daily allowance, travel which has been clearly expressed by expenses, cost of residence, etc. As they Arancha González, the executive director at are the most expensive human resource in International Trade Centre, in her foreword public sector, their performance should be to the Guide to Commercial Diplomacy: “In a measured diligently. rapidly changing trade landscape, those who support businesses to trade need new ways of 2) Physical distance between headquarters working, new skills and new partnerships”.5 and diplomatic missions. This makes direct supervision impossible. One can imagine a situation when the ministry is located in Europe and a diplomat is posted In diplomatic world, one could in Australia or North America. Due to hear that some countries have time difference, it is challenging to have «already been preparing additional corpus of commercial diplomats to hours. Performance metrics recorded in fight for economic interests of their aneven electronic a Teams system conversation enable following during office the country in post-COVID-19 times performance of diplomats in foreign posts on an ongoing basis.

3) Increasing public scrutiny requires Another stimulus coming from the business evidence that resources for commercial world is an increasing awareness and diplomacy are well spent. Citizens and assertiveness of business representatives business are increasingly aware and who know what to expect from commercial assertive when it comes to the quality of diplomats and how to assess their work public services. Metrics help to respond to using corporate standards. They are ready such inquiries and critics, and build trust in to complain to the ministry, go to mass public service. media, or express their disappointment on social media if they do not like the standard 4) Need for adequate metrics and reward of commercial diplomacy service. This all criteria. Compensation policies should means that modern, well-designed, objective, motivate staff for good performance and and methodologically valid performance rewards should be granted to those who measurement is a must in today’s commercial make impact and really contribute to diplomacy. And it should not cause any fear achieving organisational goals. This need or resistance among staff if we realise that is illustrated by the following example: Experience in a foreign service has been usually recognised as the criterion for years- potentialWhy Measure benefits outweigh Performance the threats. in in-service allowance. However, in times Commercial Diplomacy? of digitalisation, dynamic development, technological disruptions, and rapidly Commercial diplomacy needs metrics for emerging new business models, it cannot many reasons: be taken for granted that a diplomat with the longest experience brings the most 1) The most expensive resource. Diplomats value. A system using years in service as are the most expensive category of public

a reward criterion does not reflect the 5 A Guide to Commercial Diplomacy, n2.

42 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 actual value of work and contribution of an • To show the results of commercial individual employee. Rewarding a person diplomacy, unit, or a single diplomat to for surviving in the organisation is not citizens, journalists, constituencies, and reasonable. other stakeholders; • To build trust and accountability of 5) Need for accurate response to actual foreign service; business needs. Performance measurement • To motivate and reward the staff more helps to identify actual business needs and effectively based on objective criteria. their geographical patterns and to respond to them accordingly, e.g. by allocation of relevant resources in the global network. Definition of Commercial Diplomacy

Measuring performance is not only about Commercial diplomacy is a governmental controlling people, identifying weak points service for the business community, and dysfunctions, followed by possible which aims at the development of socially repressions, but it also serves many other 7. purposes. A classic article by Robert D. Behn Commercial diplomats perform their of Harvard University names eight purposes beneficialactivities internationalin the host businesscountry venturesand are of measuring performance: evaluating usually staff members of a diplomatic if the agency is doing well, controlling if mission, trade promotion organisation subordinates are doing the right things, (TPO), or investment promotion agency deciding on budget allocations, motivating (IPA). Commercial diplomacy is the work of the staff, promoting achievements and diplomatic missions (and other agencies) impact made by the agency, celebrating to support the home country’s business successes, learning what is working and sector8. Its functions are sometimes what is not, and improving performance6. performed by a trade representative with Translating these general purposes into non-diplomatic status or by local staff, citizens of the host country, with non- performance measurement allows: diplomatic status. the specific commercial diplomacy context, • To follow the process of goal accomplishment, identify problems, and A comprehensive set of potential commercial launch improvements in commercial diplomacy activities has been compiled by 9 diplomacy operations; Shirin Reuvers and Huub Ruel and grouped into four categories: network activities, • To apply for budgets, substantiating intelligence, image campaigns, and support application with relevant quantitative business.10 arguments;

6 R. D. Behn, Why Measure Performance? Different Purposes Require Different Measures, “Public Administration Review”, September/October 2003, vol. 63, no. 5. 7 Kostecki, Naray, n4, p. 1. 8 A Guide to Commercial Diplomacy, n2, p. 12. 9 S. Reuvers, H. Ruel, Research on Commercial Diplomacy, A Review and Implications, [in:] H. Ruel (ed.), Commercial Diplomacy and International Business. A Conceptual and Empirical Exploration, Emerald Group Publishing Limited: Bingley 2012, p. 8. 10

delegationsOliver Naray and provides strategic an alternativeconcerns. See: classification Naray, n3. of commercial diplomacy activities, naming: business intelligence, country image, networking and partner search, conflict handling, support of business and government

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 43 Challenges in Measuring Performance • Need for integrative approach. Commercial of Commercial Diplomacy diplomacy operates in a broader system consisting of diplomats in foreign posts, While designing performance measurement systems, some issues should be considered ministries, public export credit agencies, officials in the headquarters and other below. regional business development centres. and addressed. They are briefly described Commercialexport financing diplomacy institutions, metrics should and • Non-tangible service. Diplomacy offers a optimally be integrated with the metrics of non-tangible service; thus, it is not easy the other agencies to stimulate synergies to measure its performance. rather than cultivating the silo effect. • No overall control. The ultimate outcome • Need for complexity. Metrics focus the of commercial diplomacy’s efforts is attention of the personnel. People do determined by many different factors, what is measured and what they are some of which are out of control of rewarded for: “What gets measured, gets commercial diplomats – commercial done”. Thus, a good measurement system diplomacy service is usually a fraction of should consolidate the entire scope of desired behaviours. • Non-obligatory follow-up from forces determining the final outcome. • Measurement should not be burdensome. companies. Both commercial diplomacy The measurement process should be easy customers and partners in the host and seamless for the staff. Measurement country are not obliged to report the cannot consume the resources for operational activity. service. As a result, it is challenging to trackfinal outcome the impact. (impact) of the diplomatic • Insightfulness. The measurement system should provide a comprehensive insight • Diversity of domains and services. A into commercial diplomacy operations. performance measurement system The metrics reported in an electronic is determined heavily by the domain system should also inform about the of commercial diplomacy services – different metrics can be relevant for topic of inquiry, category of expertise export promotion, inbound investment used,profile follow-up. of the customer, Such knowledge type of service, helps promotion, tourism promotion, or to better plan resource allocations in enhancing R&D cooperation, for the global network and to optimise its certain type of service, or depending operations. on chargeability/non-chargeability/ subsidised-chargeability for services. What to Measure? • Diversity of host countries’ characteristics. The importance of Commercial diplomacy models vary certain commercial diplomacy services depends heavily on the host country which makes copying the performance characteristics; e.g. networking services measurementsignificantly system from country-by-country, one country to (high-value connections) are important another hardly possible. However, some of in such countries as China, Turkey, or the metrics can be universal (or applicable Poland, whereas they have minor value after some adaptation). The article suggests in Scandinavia, where it is relatively easy nine metrics that can be used (after some to access relevant people and initiate adaptations) for performance measurement dialogue. in commercial diplomacy.

44 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 Number of cases served responding to enquiries11. Home country companies expect commercial diplomats to Companies in a phase of foreign expansion identify meaningful business opportunities need information, intelligence, advocacy, in the host country. and lobbying. The number of such cases correlates with desired future outcomes – the more knowledge and efforts diplomats share with the customer, the more likely Commercial diplomacy the customer’s success in the host country models vary significantly «country-by-country, which the number of cases served by a diplomat. makes copying the performance would be. So, the first metric to be used is measurement system from one In order to reduce the risk of creative country to another hardly possible reporting, it is advisable to provide a measurement purposes. Cases are not theclear same. definition There of whatare minor a case cases, means like for However, opportunities themselves are checking records in a national business worthless if they are not attractive for or register; medium cases, like drafting a list addressed by home country companies. That is why the number of opportunities cases, like drafting a market entry strategy forof distributorsthe customer. of That certain is why profile; it is andadvisable large a metric showing if an opportunity that the cases are standardised based on the attractedidentified meaningful should be interest accompanied of at least by time spent into three categories, e.g.: one home country company (of course, • Minor cases – up to 3 working hours, the more activated companies, the better). Meaningful interest of customers should • Medium cases – up to 24 working hours, be recognised based on objective facts, e.g., • Large cases – up to 40 working hours. proposal submission, start of negotiations, signing letter of intent, etc. The number of Standardisation eliminates the risk of activations is a comprehensive measure, as dividing the task into smaller cases in order to get better numeric results. The the offering and interest of the home country above numbers are only exemplary, as each business,it reflects bothvalue the of diplomat’sthe opportunity knowledge for the of diplomacy should consider the time caps company, but also the effectiveness of the for services for one individual company diplomat in communicating the opportunity and annual time spent per one company to the home country companies. regarding, e.g., available resources, volume of demand for its services, and commercial A key for success of this metric is a diplomacy strategy. opportunity” and “activation” as well as Number of business opportunities settingclear definitionsome quality of standard the terms for “businessbusiness activating home country companies opportunities. The basic standard for a business opportunity should require some A recent trend in commercial diplomacy background: actual need of an individual is focusing on proactive work on spotting business, sector, or economy of the host high-value opportunities, rather than only

country; objective facts confirming the 11 A Guide to Commercial Diplomacy, n2, p. 19.

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 45 the walls of the embassy’s premises (if information is available online, it means it business need; relevance for the profile of can be accessed from the home country). If buyer,the home guarantee, country grant, offering; or loan). and In financing order to a diplomat wants to obtain knowledge, he/ meetfeasibility the standard, (sound financial a commercial standing diplomat of the she should “leave the building” and interact should do some business opportunity with experts. Like in the business world, the knowledge should be recorded in a knowledge management system in order to verification work. make it available to the organisation (e.g. CRM, databases, or similar). The number of introductions is a comprehensive Meetings should be methodologically «measure, as it reflects also planned regarding the anticipated needs of the ability and motivation of a the home country’s companies rather than diplomat to build and cultivate be a blind “hunting for business cards” to relationships and connect people record them in a CRM system and to get the score. To ensure that expert meetings are meaningful, the metric should require reporting the meeting in the system and Because a diplomat, being a source of the showing the potential application of the opportunity, has an interest in accounting the business opportunity and activations, he or she can be self-biased. That is why meantknowledge by “expert gained. meeting” Again for the measurement definition: it makes sense to appoint a person in the purposes.It is advisable to define precisely what is

opportunities and activations vis-à-vis Number of media hits objectiveheadquarters criteria who and qualifiesset standards. all business Presence in social media and traditional Introductions media is an important and usually free- of-charge channel for sending a message. One of the most important services of It is also a tool for building the image commercial diplomacy is door opening, of the home country, its achievements, establishing high-value connections cooperation opportunities, etc. Metrics and referrals (as an umbrella term: should incentivise diplomats to be active in “introductions”). Diplomats, due to the media. One metric can be the number of their status, well-established networks, media hits. and reputation are a good source of However, media differ by audience, content, an “introduction” and a quality standard set range, and even reputation, as well as the forintroductions. it helps to avoidAgain, creative a precise reporting. definition The of form of media presence can be different number of introductions is a comprehensive (interview, comment, article, social media post, etc.); thus the metric should be built motivation of a diplomat to build and regarding the characteristics of the media cultivatemeasure, relationships as it reflects and also connect the ability people. and landscape vis-à-vis diplomatic needs. The metric should motivate the diplomats to Number of expert meetings use the right channel to reach the relevant audience. Media monitoring and analytics The key diplomatic asset is knowledge. tools can be used to measure the media Knowledge is usually localised beyond presence.

46 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 Customer satisfaction rate Time spent on a client (electronic timesheet) It is potentially easy to report a lot of cases and a lot of introductions, but they can be One of the possible metrics is a number of of poor quality. Commercial diplomacy is hours spent per customer (specifying type getting more and more customer-centric. of activities). Like in consulting companies, a Customer satisfaction matters. That is why diplomat completes an electronic timesheet it is advisable to put on top of the three at the end of each week, reporting how above metrics an additional one – the level much time he/she spent on certain activities of customer satisfaction. Monitoring and for each customer. Such information can be evaluation that does take place is often used for many purposes: 12 based on customer satisfaction surveys . • It informs which company gets support Depending on methodology and scale and in what amount (which is important adopted, the minimum level can be set, for fair and equal treatment of customers e.g., at 75%. It is advisable that customer and helps to respond to the occasionally satisfaction measurement is based on raised argument that commercial surveying larger numbers of customers in diplomats help only their friends and order to statistically eliminate personal cronies14). antipathy or random mistakes. • It provides evidence showing how Ghost shopping (mystery shopping) much time diplomats spent on helping companies (provided that time is spent Ghost shopping (mystery shopping) is a effectively, it can be helpful for trust- concept taken from marketing, being a tool and image-building of commercial that helps to obtain unbiased information. diplomacy). This procedure is used to measure and • Using a timesheet can also show the assess the quality of actual services relation between the time spent on rendered to customers: A quality controller internal procedures and meetings acts as a regular customer contacting the and the time actually spent on serving service provider and asking for service13. business needs, and can give a clue for Based on this interaction and following a optimisations. script/questionnaire, the quality controller • A timesheet informs what services are assesses the performance and drafts a most time-consuming in the commercial report commenting on key service quality diplomacy network and in certain aspects. Ghost shopping quality control can localisations, which can be an insight for be outsourced to specialised agencies. In the automation or training for diplomats. case of diplomacy, ghost shopping should measure the quality of content and response • time. services are most popular by country, A timesheet helps to find out what

12 J. van Barnevelt, W. Vullings, M. Rijnders-Nagle (ed.), Benchmark Standardisation. Practices from DE, DK, FR and UK, Report by Technopolis Group for the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, April 2014, p. 11. 13 A similar concept, named “Export Support Performance”, has been proposed by Gorazd Justinek; see: G. Justinek, Measuring Export Support Performance, [in:] H. Ruel (ed.), Commercial Diplomacy and International Business. A Conceptual and Empirical Exploration, Emerald Group Publishing Limited: Bingley 2012, pp. 141-150. 14 in: Kostecki, Naray, n4, p. 3. The criticisms for abusing diplomatic power for personal benefit or for that of a diplomat’s cronies has been raised

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 47 region, or globally; what companies use divided by the standard number of working the commercial diplomacy’s service hours in a period. most; and what sectors are most active (which, in turn, can prompt training Home country companies are granted a needs as well). virtual voucher (virtual money limit) that they can spend on commercial diplomacy However, deploying this measure can result services in the global network. in disadvantages and risks. A timesheet does not stimulate increasing effectiveness Example: A home country company is of work (as it focuses on hours instead of granted a virtual voucher amounting the result); it can annoy the personnel and to 5,000 EUR, which can be spent on result in distrust. As commercial diplomats commercial diplomacy services in the are sometimes just public servants and global network in 2020. The hourly rate generalists with no previous experience in of a trade counsellor in a certain location business, the customers – comparing the is 200 EUR, a secretary’s is 150 EUR, an number of hours spent and the output – attaché’s is 120 EUR, and a local advisor’s can criticise commercial diplomacy for is 80 EUR. That means that the company low effectiveness. On the other hand, it can can get five hours of work of a trade motivate a revision of commercial diplomacy counsellor, 20 hours of an attaché’s, and 20 effectiveness and reforms. hours of local staff. If the company expands to a few foreign destinations, it can use a Revenue or virtual revenue part of the voucher amount at any post in the global network. As the company has In the case of diplomacies, which charge for limited resources, it executes an effective their services, the principal metric can be utilisation of the hourly rate. the revenue from services, followed by the customer satisfaction rate. It is easy – if the Provided that the service will be of a quality service is of poor quality, the customer will relevant for the hourly rate, such a virtual not come again or will claim money refund. voucher system has many advantages: • It shows the monetary value of the service to companies; It requires issuing to companies • It shows the monetary value of working a “virtual voucher” for time to diplomats; «commercial diplomacy services. • It focuses staff attention on value- In order to implement the system, creating activities instead of internal/ diplomats should be attributed administrative work; with individual hourly rates based • Different hourly rates incentivise for on the total cost of their work rational delegating and optimal allocation of human resources; • It helps to estimate the cost-value relation The same logic can be used also in commercial in commercial diplomacy. diplomacies not charging for their services. It requires issuing to companies a “virtual The voucher system is associated with a voucher” for commercial diplomacy services. risk that companies, even not prepared for In order to implement the system, diplomats foreign expansion, can request commercial should be attributed with individual hourly diplomacy just not to lose virtual money. rates based on the total cost of their work This challenge can be addressed by pre-

48 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 country institutions (headquarters or regional Piotr Hajdecki is an ex-commercial diplomat of developmentqualification ofagencies) companies15. This in theapproach home Poland and former executive director of Polish- would help to prepare the companies for Lithuanian Chamber of Commerce with over 15 internationalisation and ensure the provision years of experience in public and private sector. of commercial diplomacy services only to Currently, he works as a senior advisor at Business companies ready for foreign expansion. Finland, Europe Central Hub in Warsaw. As a practitioner, he is a guest lecturer in Economic Commercial diplomacy is an important Diplomacy, a post-graduate programme held part of diplomacy. It is likely that in post- at SGH Warsaw School of Economics, where he COVID-19 times, it will become even more teaches Contemporary Challenges Facing Economic important as a means contributing to faster Diplomacy and International Negotiations. He economic recovery of countries. Performance holds a master’s degree in International Trade measurement has been gaining importance from Cracow University of Economics (Poland), a in commercial diplomacy practice, as it master’s degree in Law from Jagiellonian University is not only about controlling people, but (Poland), and an Executive MBA from Stockholm also serves many positive purposes (e.g., University, School of Business (Sweden). Currently, improving operations, building trust with he studies towards a master’s degree in Digital stakeholders, and enabling data-based Transformation at Kyiv School of Economics. He advocating for higher budgets). has published in: Gazeta Samorządu i Administracji (Journal of Local Government and Administration), Even if commercial diplomacy models vary CEO Magazyn Kadry Zarządzającej (CEO Magazine of Top Executives), and Personel i Zarządzanie makes copying performance measurement (Personnel and Management). He specialises systemssignificantly hardly country-by-country,possible, some metrics which can in economic diplomacy, science and technology be universal. The number of cases served, the diplomacy, international negotiation, marketing, number of business opportunities activating and management. home country companies, establishing high-value connections, the number of expert meetings, the number of media hits, customer satisfaction rate, time spent on a client, and revenue are among them.

15 The issue of customer preparedness as a determinant of commercial diplomacy effectiveness has been raised by Huub Ruel and Lennart Zuidema in: H. Ruel, L. Zuidema, The Effectiveness of Commercial Diplomacy. A Survey among Embassies and Consulates, Discussion Papers in Diplomacy, No. 123, March 2012, Netherlands Institute of International Relations “Clingendael”, ISSN 1569-2981, pp. 10-11.

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 49 “SHUTTLE DIPLOMACY” IN THE ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT: RETROSPECT AND REALITIES

Dr. Iryna Zubarenko Odessa I. I. Mechnikov National University

The primary purpose of the article is to demonstrate in retrospect the practical implementation of “shuttle diplomacy” in resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict. Taking into consideration the fact that “shuttle diplomacy”, whose success falls to the first half of the 1970s, exerted the biggest influence on Egypt among all the conflicting parties, the article presents historical facts that can serve to study this phenomenon. The analysis of the US-Egyptian relations in the context of “shuttle diplomacy” is based on striving to crystallise both positive and negative experiences and shows why this model of interaction is limited.

Setting the Scene diplomacy” by focusing on his personal The issue of resolving the Arab-Israeli Some officials blame Kissinger for “shuttle towards Israel.1 Nevertheless, a number territorial problems that were exacerbated sympathiesof factors that and are Washington’s presented officialin the articlepolicy byconflict the Six-Day remains War relevant in 1967 to gave this day.rise to The a indicate his ability to keep balance skilfully series of misunderstandings and, in some in the triangle of ties among the United cases, a hostile relationship between the States, Israel, and Egypt. In this sense, the experience of Kissinger’s “shuttle diplomacy” 1970s, it had become clear that a peaceful may be useful for today’s cases due to the settlementconflicting parties.between By Israel the beginning and the ofArabs the current geopolitical situation in which the would imply a search for new ways of bipolarity of the international relations interaction. The desire of Arab leaders to system has lost its former importance. take revenge through the ensuing war had turned into a failure. It was that moment when the famous “shuttle diplomacy” of Dictionary as “discussions between two or Henry Kissinger, the US national security more“Shuttle countries, diplomacy” in iswhich defined someone by Cambridge travels adviser, was used to mitigate the long- between the different countries, talking to the governments involved, carrying

standing conflict.

1 (M. Heikal, Autumn of Fury: The Story about the Beginning and the End of Sadat’s Epoch, Dar Ash-Sharaf: Cairo 1983, p. 122).

50 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 messages, and suggesting ways of dealing As for practical implementation of “shuttle with problems”. 2 diplomacy” in the 1970s regarding the

The very idea of “shuttle diplomacy” was to hold separate bilateral negotiations put forward in the late 1960s by W. Michael Arab-Israeli conflict, the key point was Reisman, a professor at Yale Law School, who tried in his work The Art of the Possible: agreeingbetween on US the officials most andeffective representatives course of Diplomatic Alternatives in the Middle East to action.of the conflictingThe idea partiesof “shuttle with diplomacy” a view to give it a certain historical and legal basis. By was presented to the Arabs almost as a describing the multidimensionality of this reorientation of the US Middle East policy. region with its various economic systems, ideologies, faiths, and religious trends, concern about it, having contributed in fact Reisman found it impossible to elaborate toOfficial the growing Tel Aviv, intransigence for its part, didof the not Israeli cause a comprehensive approach to resolving position. It was not only a matter of ways how to implement “shuttle diplomacy”, but issues seemed to be reduced to the US- also of who carried it out. President Richard Sovietthe Arab-Israeli confrontation. conflict, “Relations in which betweenall acute Nixon entrusted maintaining contacts with Israel and Egypt, Israel and Syria, Israel and the Israeli government to National Security Jordan and Palestinian people”, Reisman Adviser Kissinger, who was also well known wrote, “are a series of problems and each as a skilful defender of the Rockefellers’ of them requires a special approach and a separate diplomatic strategy”.3 Under interests. the special approach, he meant not a and some other influential Jewish families’ radical solution for the Middle East peace It is worthwhile to mention that political settlement but partial, separate agreements leadership shift in Egypt in October 1970 on certain issues. Reisman proposed to became one of the most favourable factors begin with the establishment of a so-called for conducting “shuttle diplomacy”. The minimum order in the Middle East, the idea of a rapprochement with the United most important component of which, in his States based on their ability to maintain opinion, could be “a project for the Sinai contact with both parties of the Arab- Peninsula comprehensive development” under effective external control. He strongly on Tel Aviv pushed President Anwar Sadat recommended creating an international toIsraeli take conflict radical andsteps. to exertOn 17 some July influence1972, he corporation titled the Sinai Development announced the termination of the mission Trust whose fund would consist of the of 15,000 Soviet military advisers and USA, the Middle East counties, and other specialists in Egypt, who had been assisting interested parties’ contributions. Egypt, in in the reorganisation of the Egyptian accordance with that idea, had to transfer armed forces since 1968. The reaction of the Suez Canal to the trust as a concession American decision-makers to this event was for a period of 50 years while retaining rather ironic. One of the most outstanding sovereignty over its territory. Egyptian scholars, Mohamed Heikal, quoted

2 Shuttle Diplomacy, “Cambridge Dictionary”, Cambridge University Press 2019 [https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/shuttle diplomacy access: 16 July 2019]. 3 W.M. Reisman, The Art of the Possible: Diplomatic Alternatives in the Middle East, Princeton University Press: Princeton 1970, p. 20.

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 51 Kissinger: “If Sadat had informed us about At two secret meetings with Egyptian such his intention earlier, we would have National Security Adviser Hafez Izmail, given him something in return. However, in which took place in Paris (February and politics just like in any other business, no April 1973), Kissinger made it clear that one pays for what has already fallen into his “further concessions expected of Egypt pocket”.4 must be both political and territorial; therefore the Egyptians must cede part of their sovereignty to ensure Israel’s safety”. He persistently imposed the psychology of Shuttle diplomats and mediators the loser on the Egyptian side. Anwar Sadat relied on the psycho-emotional cited this strategic line of Kissinger even in «state of President Sadat, his autobiographical work Soul-Searching who tried, by all means, to prove Story of My Life: “My advice to A. Sadat to the USA that Egypt could play is to be a realist. We live in a pragmatic a role of their Middle Eastern ally world; that is why we cannot build plans on an equal footing with Israel based on desires and illusions. The reality is that you, Arabs, were defeated, however, you demand and command as if you’re winners. You have to make significant Numerous contacts with the Americans, concessions, and then the United States will try to help you”.5 1972-1973 in the context of “shuttle which were considerably intensified in Shuttle diplomats and mediators relied on Cairo that the USA had been adhering to the psycho-emotional state of President thediplomacy”, main six demonstratedprinciples in the to Middle the official East Sadat, who tried, by all means, to prove to policy: the USA that Egypt could play a role of their 1. Elimination of the USSR from the Middle Middle Eastern ally on an equal footing East settlement; with Israel. Taking into account such an 2. Not a comprehensive, but a partial approach, it is clear why the Egyptian president informed pro-Western Arab basis between Israel and Egypt, Israel and leaders about preparations for a secret Syria,settlement Israel ofand the Palestinians; conflict on a bilateral military operation and at the same time hid this information from Libya, which, 4. Explication to the Arabs that a return to according to Heikal, provided Egypt on the the3. Gradual 1967 borders settlement is hardly of the possible; conflict; eve of the war with the most solid military 5. Emphasis mostly on the issue of refugees in the Palestinian problem; and billion US dollars.6 6. Constant coordination of the peace and financial assistance of at least one settlement in accordance with American Also, it is not surprising that the US interests in the Middle East. intelligence service knew about the

4 Heikal, n1, p. 124. 5 A. Sadat, Soul-Searching Story of My Life, Al-Maktab al-Mysriy lil Bahs: Cairo 1998, p. 385. 6 M. Heikal, The Road to Ramadan, Ballantine Books: New York 1976, p. 197.

52 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 preparations for that operation already to circumvent the border issue, which was in May 1973 and immediately started to totally in Israel’s interests. intensify its activities in Egypt in order to collect exclusive military information The agreement of 18 January 1974 on being mediated by diplomats from other the troops’ separation, which obligated US allies there. Kissinger himself admitted: Egypt and Israel to refrain from military actions against each other, became a kind our intelligence service. Due to its efforts, of Kissinger’s “shuttle diplomacy” triumph we“We knew were everything very satisfied that withwas thegoing work on in of and, at the same time, instigated a sharp Egypt and there was not a single clue that deterioration in the relations with the we would not realize”.7 USSR. President Sadat took such a step without consulting the Soviet leadership The fourth Arab-Israeli war, which began notwithstanding that the UN Security on 6 October 1973 and ended 18 days later, Council Resolution 338 provided that clearly summarised the diligence of shuttle negotiations on the Middle East peace diplomacy implementation. Referring to the settlement should be coordinated by all manoeuvres of “shuttle diplomacy”, Harvard stakeholders under the corresponding University professor Edward Sheehan control of the two superpowers. admits that even during the preparation The Egyptian president openly welcomed separation on the Sinai Peninsula, Kissinger Kissinger’s involvement in resolving the handedof the over first to agreement the Israeli on government the troops’ a secret memorandum of understanding. to Albert Einstein and Winston Churchill In accordance with it, the United States andArab-Israeli emphasising conflict that by his comparing Americanism him promised to make every effort to fully meet dominated over his being of Jewish origin. Israel’s long-term weapons needs.8 Tel Sadat wrote that he totally trusted Kissinger Aviv also demanded from Kissinger that and “it is very easy to negotiate with him the given memorandum veto the Palestine because he is a very wise man who sees Liberation Organisation’s participation the problem in all its aspects”.10 It was in the Geneva Peace Conference. Later, obvious that he still sought to turn Egypt the Israeli journalist Matti Gollan stated: into a reliable ally of the United States in the “The purpose of Kissinger’s manoeuvres Middle East on an equal footing with Israel. during the troops’ separation was to avoid negotiations on the border demarcation and From 10 to 15 February 1975, Kissinger 9 Thus, the American toured the capitals of Egypt, Syria, and side, having voted in the UN Security Council Israel, and later, from 8 to 22 March in the thefor Resolution final settlement”. 242, which provided that same year, he made a series of “shuttle the Israeli troops must withdraw from diplomacy” trips between Aswan, Tel Aviv, the occupied Arab territories, at the same and Damascus. The talks were focused on time pursued a behind-the-scenes policy proposals to withdraw Israeli troops from

7 H. Kissinger, Years of Upheaval, Little Brown & Co: Boston-Toronto 1982, p. 378. 8 E. Sheehan, The Arabs, Israelis and Kissinger: A Secret History of American Diplomacy in the Middle East, Reader’s Digest Press: New York 1976, p. 211. 9 M. Gollan, Secret Conversations by Henry Kissinger: Step-by-step diplomacy in the Middle East, Bantam Book, Inc.: New York 1976, p. 8. 10 Sadat, n6, p. 425.

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 53 the Mitla and Gidi mountain passes, as well between Cairo and Tel Aviv with the purpose to reach the next Egyptian-Israeli agreement Peninsula. However, as both the Egyptian on the Sinai. The second Egyptian-Israeli andas from Israeli the Abusides Rudeis were oil quite fields adamanton the Sinai in agreement on the troops’ separation on the pursuing their own line on that issue, the US Sinai Peninsula was signed in Geneva on 4 State Department decided to resort to a new September 1975. In accordance with the manoeuvre. agreement, Israeli non-military ships were allowed to pass through the Suez Canal. On 22 March 1975, Kissinger stated that the Israel announced the return to Egypt a part USA should suspend attempts to help the of the occupied territories, including the Abu

a further peaceful settlement because their misunderstandingsparties of the Middle on East a conflictnumber toof reach key OnRudeis the oil eve fields. of this agreement’s signing, issues had proved excessive. In response, Washington issued a document titled Sadat hastened to reassure the Americans of “Assurance of the US Government to the his full loyalty. The meeting with President Arab Republic of Egypt” (1 September 1975) Ford, which took place on 1-2 June 1975 in that imposed on the US a responsibility for the Austrian city of Salzburg, could serve as a proof. During the meeting, Sadat expressed the view that 99 per cent of Washington’s economicensuring Israel’s development fulfilment of Egypt. of all Despiteobligations the Middle East interests are provided by the doubtsand reaffirmed of the Congress their aid and policy some towards warnings the Arabs, and as for the Israelis, they oppose of his colleagues from the State Department, the US policy in the region every time when Kissinger insisted on providing economic their interests run counter to American aid to Egypt in order to implement further ones. “However, we do not call for Israel to the US plans regarding Sadat’s regime. be thrown into the sea and for the United First of all, he offered the Egyptians help in States to renounce special relations with it,” rebuilding the Suez Canal and clearing it of the Egyptian leader mentioned cautiously.11 mines and wrecks in the aftermath of the The main outcome of this meeting for the fourth Arab-Israeli war. Indeed, 85 million Egyptian side was Washington’s intention US dollars in aid was given to Egypt after the not to allow stagnation in searching for conclusion of the second Sinai agreement on the Egyptian and Israeli troops’ separation. settlement and striving to continue to put itseffective efforts methods as a mediator of the Middle to establish East conflict peace In the same year, the United States Agency between Egypt and Israel. In general, the for International Development (USAID) Americans expressed satisfaction with launched an assistance programme to the Sadat’s constructive approach to the issue of Arab Republic of Egypt. According to the peace and his willingness to accept any form statement of the USAID mission director and method of settlement. in Egypt Donald S. Brown, “From the very beginning the aid program to Egypt has been On 5 June 1975, the Suez Canal was opened for navigation after an eight-year break. Such infrastructure development, technical and a gesture of the Egyptian president gave a directed to reap the full benefits, namely new impetus to the US “shuttle diplomacy” family planning, and improved agricultural scientific expertise, general health, education,

11 Ibid, p. 432.

54 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 productivity”.12 not comprehensive solutions of the peace of the programme were the restoration settlement. Anwar Sadat, who positioned and reopening ofAmong the Suez the first Canal, achievements one of the himself as a pro-Western leader, became the most important waterways for international ideal guide for the implementation of Henry business and the main centre for receiving Kissinger’s “shuttle diplomacy” ideas for a foreign currency for the Egyptian economy. In addition, the programme provided for a In an attempt to take the place of the US allypartial on solutionan equal of footing the Arab-Israeli with Israel, conflict. Sadat was ready to make impulsive decisions. The portsignificant buildings, expansion granaries, of Egypt’s water infrastructure supply. “shuttle diplomats”, headed by Kissinger, Thus,in the the fields second of energy, half of telecommunications, the 1970s marked the beginning of the strengthening of institutional and professional ties between arena;first perceived however, the they new soon Egyptian realised leader that as he a the USA and Egypt, and it happened largely couldrandom interact and short-lived quite successfully figure in the based political on due to the skilful implementation of “shuttle his strivings to distance himself from the diplomacy” by Henry Kissinger. USSR and to draw closer to the United States.

When Jimmy Carter headed the US administration in January 1977, Anwar Sadat was once again convinced that Washington the most significant results of “shuttle diplomacy” – the «Camp David Accords and the Onwould the continueeve of his to presidency, play the role Jimmy of aCarter “first Arab-Israeli Peace Treaty – became fiddle” in the Middle East peace settlement. apparent after he had left office, effective course of US Middle East policy. The it is undeniable that they became startingpromised point to developof this course a more was flexible to conclude and a merit of the US mediation that certain measures of Kissinger’s “shuttle diplomacy” had exhausted themselves by the time. And such a conclusion was quite natural. American researchers Eric Brahm Kissinger did his best to help Egypt and Israel to eliminate the consequences of the fourth Arab-Israeli war. And although the most “shuttleand Heidi diplomacy”, Burgess stateas its that methods high-profile are workingofficial diplomatsonly in cases should when the not parties conduct to the Camp David Accords and the Arab-Israeli Peacesignificant Treaty results – became of “shuttle apparent diplomacy” after he had – direct communication between them is hardlythe conflict possible. are 13so angry and polarised that a merit of the US mediation. left office, it is undeniable that they became Conclusion Nevertheless, the segmental approach in resolving the contradictions between the The main mission of the “shuttle diplomacy” in the Middle East was that it was aimed both achieving a comprehensive peace in the theoretically and practically at bilateral but region.conflicting Despite parties the fact became that aover scourge time the to

12 D. S. Brown, Egypt and the United States: Collaborators in Economic Development, “The Middle East Journal”, 35(1), p. 7. 13 E. Brahm, H. Burgess, Shuttle Diplomacy, “Beyond Intractability”, November 2003 [https://www.beyondintractability.org/essay/shuttle_diplomacy, access 14 May 2020].

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (20), 2020 55 followers of Kissinger managed to bring Egypt and Jordan to a relative mutual Iryna Zubarenko, PhD, is an assistant professor understanding with Israel on most of the at the faculty of International Relations, Political issues, the territorial problems between Science, and Sociology at Odessa Mechnikov Israel and Syria, as well as between Israel National University. Zubarenko graduated from and the Palestinians, remain unresolved the Institute of Social Sciences, Odessa Mechnikov to this day. Thus, “shuttle diplomacy” can National University, and obtained her Ph.D. at A. be considered only an effective method in Krymskyi Institute of Oriental Studies, National collaboration with the political regimes that Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. Zubarenko’s are ready to interact completely following professional and research interests relate to the US US mediation and to accept Washington’s policy in the Middle East, the Arab-Israeli conflict, decisions as an unconditional postulate in relations between Ukraine and the Arab world, issues of domestic political, economic, and social assistance. nature, as well as gender problems in the region. exchange for some concessions and financial

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