Climate change impact assessment on maize production in Jilin, China
Meng Wang, Wei Ye and Yinpeng Li
1 Backgrounds
APN CAPaBLE project with focus on integrated system development for food security assessment Bio-physical & Economic
Uncertainties: e.g. GCMs, CO2 emission scenarios Adaptation measures (cross multi-scales)
2 SimCLIM model
Greenhouse gas MAGICC emission scenarios
Data Global Climate Projection Scenario selections
Climate and GCM pattern import Local Climate toolbox average, variability, extremes IPCC CMIP (GCMs) (present and future) USER -Synthetic changes - GCM patterns “Plug-in” Models Biophysical Impacts on: Agriculture, Coastal, - Land data Human Health, Water - Other spatial data
Impact Model
3 Case Study: Jilin Province
4 Climate Scenario
Baseline Climate CRU global climatology dataset, 1961-1990 (New, 2000)
Climate change scenarios • Pattern scaling (Santer, 1990; Mitchell, 2003) • 20 GCMs change patterns (Covey et al., 2003) • 6 SRES emission scenarios (IPCC, 2000)
5 DSSAT model – to simulate maize growth
CERES-Maize model (Jones, 1986)
• Site-based, daily time step • Input – weather, soil, cultivating strategies, cultivar parameters • Output – yield, phenological parameters (e.g. growing season, growing phase date), etc.
6 DSSAT – weather generator
SIMMETEO (Geng & Auburn, 1986)
• Input – monthly Tmax, Tmin, Rs, Prec. • Random seed sensitive 9.5 Ensemble 1 (b) 8.5 Ensemble 2
) Ensemble 3 -1 7.5 Ensemble 4 6.5
Yield (t ha Yield (t 5.5
4.5
3.5 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Random seed So, the average result of 100-seed simulations
7 Climate change projections
Precipitation (mm) Baseline
2080 ensemble
8 Climate change projections Mean temperature (degC)
Baseline
2080 ensemble
9 DSSAT – Soil
ISRIC-WISE soil dataset (Batjes, 2006) • 5 × 5 minutes • 14 FAO soil categories
10 DSSAT – cultivating strategies
Scheme Planting manner density: 6 plants m-2 date: controlled by soil temperature Fertilization nitrogen fertilizer (kg ha-1) applied by county Irrigation controlled by the total irrigation quota (350mm) and frequency
11 Calibration – cultivar parameters The initial ranges of 5 gene coefficients (P 1, P 2, P 5, G 2, G3 )
Produce 30 trial geno-types by the uniform design method Cultivar parameters P1, P2, P5 Yield Simulation
G2, G3 Calculate Ie ; Find out the genotypes with the two smallest Ie s
The i -th ranges of gene coefficients
11-site observations If (the differences between the ranges of these two genotypes are smaller than 5% of the initial No yield, upper range) then sowing date, Yes
harvest date The final range of gene coefficients
The coefficients are the average of the final range
12 Calibration – cultivar selection
Late Early
P1 280 270 Late P2 0.3 0.3
Early P5 790 700
G2 720 720
G3 8.5 8.5
13 Calibration – 11 sites (1996- 2000)
Site Cultivar Ysim/Yobs Msim/Mobs Changling Late 0.55 0.94 Nong’an Late 0.92 1.03 Yushu Late 0.87 1.06 Lishu Late 1.05 1.05 Ji’an Late 0.94 0.96 Shulan Early 0.87 1.06 Yongji Early 0.99 0.95 Dunhua Early 1.23 1.13 Liaoyuan Early 1.05 1.01 Meihekou Early 0.94 0.94 Huadian Early 0.90 1.00
14 Validation – Compare with the county census yield (1990-2002)
Average Standard deviation
a b
15 Climate scenarios
Climate change in Jilin Province • Growing season (Apr.-Sept.) • Temp. • Prec.
25 1000 (mm) Prec ) 20 800 ℃ • Prec/PET 15 600 10 400 5 200 0 0 Baicheng SongyuanChangchun Siping Jilin Liaoyuan Baishan Tonghua Yanji
2.0 1.6 1.2 P/PET=1.0
P/PET Temp ( P/PET 0.8 0.4 0 Baicheng SongyuanChangchun Siping Jilin Liaoyuan Baishan Tonghua Yanji
P/PET Prec Temp
16 Results – spatial pattern of yield change
Baseline 2020
2050 2070
17 Results – uncertainties among scenarios
8 8 Baicheng Jilin Baishan 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 2020s 2050s 2070s 2020s 2050s 2070s 2020s 2050s 2070s 1 0 0
) 8 8
-1 Songyuan Liaoyuan Tonghua 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 Yield (t ha (t Yield 3 3 2 2 1 2020s 2050s 2070s 2020s 2050s 2070s 2020s 2050s 2070s 1 0 0 8 8 Changechun Siping Yanji 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 2020s 2050s 2070s 2020s 2050s 2070s 2020s 2050s 2070s 1 0 0 A1B A1FI A1T A2 B1 B2 Baseline Median
18 Results – the probability of yield reduction
5 10 15 20 30 40 50 5 10 15 20 30 40 50
100% 100% 80% Baicheng Jilin 80% 60% 60%
40% 40%
20% 20%
0% 0% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
100% 100% 80% Songyuan Liaoyuan 80% 60% 60% 2020
Probability 40% 40%
20% 20% 2050 0% 0% 2070 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
100% 100% 80% Changechun Siping 80% 60% 60%
40% 40%
20% 20%
0% 0% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Yield reduction %
19 Results – changes in sowing date
Baseline 2020
2050 2070
20 Results – changes in flowering date
Baseline 2020
2050 2070
21 Results – changes in growing season
Baseline 2020
2050 2070
22 Results – yield and growing phase
8 160 8 200 Baicheng Dunhua 7 140 7 180 47 160 6 34 32 120 6 22 28 60 30 29 140 5 100 5 120 4 43 80 4 71 68 61 100 44 41 41 54 3 60 3 80 Yield (t ha-1)Yield (t ha-1)Yield
Duration (days) 60 Duration (days) 2 40 2 40 54 59 56 53 66 67 70 66 1 20 1 20 0 0 0 0 Baseline 2020s 2050s 2070s Baseline 2020s 2050s 2070s 8 160 8 200 Tongyu Huadian 7 140 7 180 160 6 34 120 6 33 30 28 140 30 37 51 65 5 100 5 120 4 43 43 43 43 80 4 100 65 3 60 3 61 55 53 80 Yield (t ha-1)Yield (t ha-1)Yield
Duration (days) 60 Duration (days) 2 40 2 58 56 56 54 40 1 20 1 51 50 51 49 20 0 0 0 0 Baseline 2020s 2050s 2070s Baseline 2020s 2050s 2070s
Sowing - Tasseling begins Tasseling begins - Filling begins Filling begins - Filling ends Auto Irr Control Irr
23 Results – adaptation analysis: irrigation
10 Baicheng 8 ) -1 6 Baseline
4 Yield (t ha (t Yield 2 2020 2050 2070
0 350 450 550 650 750 350 450 550 650 750 350 450 550 650 750 Irrigation quota (mm) 10 Tongyu 8 ) -1 Baseline 6
4 Yield (t ha (t Yield 2 2020 2050 2070
0 350 450 550 650 750 350 450 550 650 750 350 450 550 650 750 Irrigation quota (mm)
25-75th Percentile 10-90th percentile Median
24 Conclusion
Impacts on maize yield west & central areas eastern mountain areas Impacts on phenology shortened growing season in the west and central (especially the reduced grain filling phase) Adaptation measures Increase in total irrigation (20- 50 years) New cultivar with longer growing season (>50 years)
25 Thank You
26