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Technical Report: Road and River Transport in Central Yakutia, East Siberia, Russia

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Technical Report: Road and River Transport in Central Yakutia, East Siberia, Russia Copernicus Climate Change Service D422Lot1.SMHI.5.1.1B: Detailed workflows of each case-study on how to use the CDS for CII production and climate adaptation Full Technical Report: Road and River Transport in Central Yakutia, East Siberia, Russia L. Lebedeva1, D. Gustafsson2, O. Makarieva1,3, N. Nesterova3 1Melnikov Permafrost Institute, 2Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 3St.Petersburg State University REF.: C3S_422_Lot1_SMHI D5.1.1B C3S_422_Lot1_SMHI – D5.1.1B | Copernicus Climate Change Service Summary Mean annual air temperature in Yakutsk has increased from -10.4 °C to -8.7 °C from 1951 to 2012. Reduced winter ice road access and land road stability have numerous negative consequences for communities and the industry sector in Eastern Siberia. Data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service can be used as a basis for producing climate impact indicators (CIIs) for historical and future periods up to 2100 on local scale in combination with impact models and locally observed data. Such CIIs are essential for development of a long-term strategy for adaptation to the climate change in Yakutia. Principal stakeholders on federal, regional and local scale admit urgent need for such strategy in climate- dependent transportation sector. CIIs were produced for the ice roads and ferry at the main local transport hub – Lena River at Yakutsk and seven other official river ice road crossings along the three federal roads. Road stability was evaluated for the federal roads in the most densely populated central part of Yakutia in relation to different permafrost landscape settings. Produced CIIs on thawing depths for 21st century show contrasting response of different permafrost landscapes to expected climate change. Substantial simulated changes of thawing depth by the end of 21st century in some environmental settings could lead to critical modification of road construction and exploitation techniques. In other more resilient landscapes even small deepening of thawing layer could lead to high risk of road damage and collapse due to hazardous cryogenic processes - surface subsidence and thermokarst intensification. River ice thickness have been reduced due to the higher winter temperatures during the second half of 20th century and beginning of 21st century. For future periods, the model simulations show that maximum annual ice thickness is reduced by 36-50 cm a the Tabaga station, and ice cover period may be shortened by 20 or even up to 50 days. Produced CIIs would contribute to development of both short-term adaptation measures for safe construction and exploitation of transportation routes in Eastern Siberia and long-term strategy of adaptation and mitigation to climate change on local and regional scale. C3S_422_Lot1_SMHI – D5.1.1B | Copernicus Climate Change Service Contents 1- Case study description 4 1.1 Issue to be addressed 4 1.2 Decision support to client 4 1.3 Temporal and spatial scale 4 1.4 Knowledge brokering 5 2- Potential adaptation measures 5 2.1 Lessons learnt 5 2.2 Importance and relevance of adaptation 5 2.3 Pros and cons or cost-benefit analysis of climate adaptation 6 2.4 Policy aspects 6 3- Contact 6 3.1 Purveyors 6 3.2 Clients/users 6 4- Data production and results 7 4.1 Step 1: Local data collection 7 4.2 Step 2: Global data collection and adaption 9 4.3 Step 3: Data analysis 10 4.4 Step 4: Local impact model simulations and CII production 12 4.5 Step 5: Communication and Dissemination 29 5- Conclusion of full technical report 30 References 31 C3S_422_Lot1_SMHI – D5.1.1B | Copernicus Climate Change Service 1- Case study description 1.1 Issue to be addressed Rivers are the most important transportation routes in many parts of Siberia due to the absence of railway, bridges and the limited number of roads on land. Many remote settlements and industrial facilities critically depend on delivery by winter and ice roads, that exist only for a limited period from December-January to April. Up to 90% of goods are brought in by trucks during that short winter time. Due to global warming, mean annual air temperature in Yakutsk has increased from -10.4 °C (1951-1978) to -8.7 °C (1979-2012). As a consequence, roads on frozen ground are prone to risks of subsidence and structural weakening as permafrost thaws. Reduced winter ice road access and land road stability have numerous negative consequences for communities and the industry sector. As often winter roads are the only land links around and between remote settlements, a shortened winter road season implies higher costs of goods in these impacted areas. When winter roads fail or close, overland travel may become dangerous or impossible and unless located near a navigable waterway, communities face steep price increases as supplies must be delivered by air. Mining, energy and timber interests face shorter time windows to transport necessary equipments and products; and the coordination of the supply chain is getting complex due to the interannual variability in the winter road season length. 1.2 Decision support to client The Lena River Basin Water Management Administration operates ferry routes and ice crossing at the main regional transportation hub in Yakutsk. This administration plans the construction of seasonal roads and set up strategies for their exploitation. Information on observed and projected durations of navigation season, operation of ice roads and assessment of the stability of roads constructed on permafrost this case study provided, will support the planning of the transportation schemes, including investment into roads maintenance and influence policies. In addition, the department of permafrost engineering at the Melnikov Permafrost Institute (MPI), that develops new technologies for safe construction and exploitation of roads on land, will use the projections of roads stability under climate change in near future to improve their concepts of road development and maintenance. 1.3 Temporal and spatial scale The local impact model simulations and CII production covered a historical reference period (1971-2001) and three future 30-year periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) representing the emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. CIIs were produced for the ice roads and ferry at the main local transport hub – Lena River at Yakutsk. Road stability was evaluated for three main roads in the most densely populated central part of Yakutia. C3S_422_Lot1_SMHI – D5.1.1B | 4 Copernicus Climate Change Service 1.4 Knowledge brokering Interaction with the clients in our attempts to fill the gap between observational data, science and the client needs are organized through official correspondence and personal communication every 1-2 months. Telephone and email communication are used to share information about on-going work, make clarifications and decide details for coming steps. The project outputs were delivered to interested stakeholders through face-to-face meetings and short final report. Client feedback was asked for and considered for quality control and assurance that we provide the decision support that the client actually needs. 2- Potential adaptation measures 2.1 Lessons learnt We evaluated the value of the globally available climate information from C3S_422_Lot1_SMHI for producing local CIIs for transportation in Eastern Siberia for present and future. Mean annual air temperature in Yakutsk has increased from -10.4 °C (1951-1978) to -8.7 °C (1979-2012). River ice thickness at the Lena River near Yakutsk has decreased in March and April for the period 1955-2015 by 27-49 cm, which implies a reduction of safe ice crossing operation season. Although both ground temperature and thawing depth are stable for the period 1982-2012, the projected future climate warming could lead to deepening of thawing depth and cause ground subsidence, road damage and collapse in some environmental settings. Two impact hydrological models Hydrograph and HYPE showed applicability to assess CIIs based on global and local data. Combination of local data and verified impact models contributes to successful usage of the climate service on local scale. CIIs will contribute to decision- making process regarding transportation policy and investment into roads maintenance. Absence of existing long-term strategy of adaptation to climate change on local and regional scale in Yakutia limits, to some extent, the quick practical applicability of produced CIIs but makes them useful for development of such strategy. 2.2 Importance and relevance of adaptation Traditional methods of ground heat stabilization (e.g. thermosyphon) are current adaptation measures for road stability in permafrost regions. They are typically installed without consideration of possible climate-induced changes in the future. Conventional techniques of hydrological forecast are used for assessment of expected navigation period length and river ice thickness. Such methods and techniques were developed solely on historical data although local communities notice climate change influence on their life. In winter 2016-2017 winter roads in North-Eastern Yakutia were opened in March only that didn’t allow accomplishing of Northern Supply plan in full. Long-term adaptation strategies could be developed on the basis of CIIs produced using global climate data from the climate service, impact models and local up-to-date data. C3S_422_Lot1_SMHI – D5.1.1B | 5 Copernicus Climate Change Service 2.3 Pros and cons or cost-benefit analysis of climate adaptation The probable adaptation measure to shortened ice roads seasons and thinner ice conditions is an increased investment into artificial ice freezing at the ice crossings. The most popular and well-known method is ice-building by watering with the Grad (“hail”) sprinkling machine. Another possible measure is to prolong the ferry navigation season to October that is subject to high year-to-year variation and danger of ice formation on the ferry when operating at low temperatures. Longer periods between the end of ferry use due to ice freeze up and formation of ice cover thick enough for driving, imply substantial higher costs for operating hovercrafts for people transportation and delivery of goods by air.
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