DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC WORKS AND HIGHWAYS THE REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES
THE STUDY OF WATER SECURITY MASTER PLAN FOR METRO MANILA AND ITS ADJOINING AREAS
FINAL REPORT STORMY RAINFALL ANALYSIS IN THE PASIG-MARIKINA RIVER BASIN
MARCH 2013
JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY
NIPPON KOEI CO., LTD. THE UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO GE JR 13-057 DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC WORKS AND HIGHWAYS THE REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES
THE STUDY OF WATER SECURITY MASTER PLAN FOR METRO MANILA AND ITS ADJOINING AREAS
FINAL REPORT STORMY RAINFALL ANALYSIS IN THE PASIG-MARIKINA RIVER BASIN
MARCH 2013
JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY
NIPPON KOEI CO., LTD. THE UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO GE JR 13-057 DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC WORKS AND HIGHWAYS THE REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES
THE STUDY OF WATER SECURITY MASTER PLAN FOR METRO MANILA AND ITS ADJOINING AREAS
FINAL REPORT
STORMY RAINFALL ANALYSIS IN THE PASIG-MARIKINA BASIN
Table of Contents
Abbreviations
Page CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ...... 1-1 1.1 Background of the Study ...... 1-1 1.2 Objectives of the Study ...... 1-1 1.3 Scope of Works ...... 1-1 1.4 Study Area ...... 1-1 1.5 Topography and Precipitation in the Pasig-Marikina River Basin ...... 1-2
CHAPTER 2 REVIEW OF THE EXISTING STUDIES ...... 2-1 2.1 Introduction ...... 2-1 2.2 Stormy Rainfall Analysis ...... 2-1 2.2.1 JICA Preparatory Study (III) ...... 2-1 2.2.2 World Bank Study ...... 2-3 2.2.3 Major Updates Identified ...... 2-5 2.3 Flood Analysis ...... 2-7 2.3.1 JICA Preparatory Study (III) ...... 2-7 2.3.2 World Bank Study ...... 2-14 2.3.3 Major Updates Identified ...... 2-20
CHAPTER 3 THE DESIGN STORMY RAINFALLS ...... 3-1 3.1 Approach ...... 3-1 3.2 Meteorological and Hydrological Observation ...... 3-1 3.2.1 Data Collection ...... 3-1 3.2.2 Data Arrangement and Quality Check ...... 3-4 3.3 Fundamental Items of the Flood Control Plan ...... 3-5 3.3.1 Setting of Design Control Points ...... 3-5 3.3.2 Basin Boundary ...... 3-6 3.4 Setting of Design Rainfall Duration ...... 3-6 3.4.1 Flood Concentration Time ...... 3-6 3.4.2 Observed Rainfall Duration ...... 3-9 3.4.3 Correlation of Observed Rainfall and Water Level ...... 3-10
i 3.4.4 Design Flood Duration ...... 3-11 3.5 Estimation of Basin Mean Rainfall ...... 3-11 3.6 Collation of Statistical Samples ...... 3-13 3.6.1 Homogeneity of Population ...... 3-13 3.6.2 Annual Maxima of Basin Mean Daily Rainfall ...... 3-13 3.6.3 The Causes of the Annual Maximum Daily Rainfall ...... 3-14 3.6.4 Test of the Difference in Populations ...... 3-15 3.7 Annual Maximum Basin Mean Rainfall Depth and Probable Rainfall Depth Considering Type of Weather Disturbance ...... 3-16 3.7.1 Separation of Samples Considering Type of Weather Disturbance ...... 3-16 3.7.2 Probable Rainfall Depth ...... 3-17 3.8 Design Rainfall Patterns ...... 3-22
CHAPTER 4 CLIMATE CHANGE ANALYSIS ...... 4-1 4.1 Projection of Rainfall by GCMs ...... 4-1 4.2 Trend of Observed Rainfall and Projection...... 4-3 4.3 Climate Change Impacts on Basin Mean Rainfall ...... 4-4
CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION ...... 5-1
List of Tables
Table 2.1 Probable Rainfall Intensity and Duration at the Port Area ...... 2-1 Table 2.2 Probable Rainfall Intensity for One-day and Two-day at Port Area ...... 2-2 Table 2.3 Probable Two-day Rainfall Depth in Pasig-Marikina River Basin ...... 2-2 Table 2.4 Kimijima’s Equation for Rainfall Intensity-Duration...... 2-3 Table 2.5 Outline of Design Rainstorm – World Bank Study ...... 2-4 Table 2.6 Adjustment Factor for Probable 2-day Rainfall Depth ...... 2-4 Table 2.7 Stormy Rainfall Analysis - Points of Two Studies ...... 2-6 Table 2.8 Computed Two-day Rainfall Depth by Sub-basin during Tropical Storm Ondoy ...... 2-7 Table 2.9 Computed Probable Two-day Rainfall Depth by Sub-basin ...... 2-7 Table 2.10 Annual Maximum Discharges at Sto. Nino – JICA Preparatory Study (III) ...... 2-8 Table 2.11 Probable Peak Discharges at Sto. Nino – JICA Preparatory Study (III) ...... 2-8 Table 2.12 Probable Peak Discharges at Sto. Nino – JICA Preparatory Study (III) ...... 2-9 Table 2.13 Conditions for Flood Inundation Analysis – JICA Preparatory Study (III) ...... 2-12 Table 2.14 Inundation Area Estimated by Scenario Simulation - JICA Preparatory Study (III) ...... 2-13 Table 2.15 Annual Maximum Discharges at Sto. Nino – World Bank Study ...... 2-14 Table 2.16 Flood Events for Calibration and Validation of Flood Simulation Model in the World Bank Study ...... 2-15 Table 2.17 Results of Calibration – World Bank Study ...... 2-16 Table 2.18 Alternatives of Flood Control Measures – World Bank Study ...... 2-18
ii Table 2.19 Flood Analysis – Comparison between Two Studies ...... 2-21 Table 3.1 Daily and Hourly Rainfall Data in Other Sources ...... 3-2 Table 3.2 Rainfall Intensity–Duration Frequency Analysis Data of Synoptic Stations ...... 3-3 Table 3.3 List of Flood Event Summary Reports ...... 3-4 Table 3.4 Flood Concentration Time with Observed Data Method ...... 3-7 Table 3.5 Velocity of Flood (W) ...... 3-8 Table 3.6 Traveling Time ...... 3-8 Table 3.7 Ranking of Water Level and Rainfall Depth ...... 3-10 Table 3.8 Annual Maximum Basin Mean Daily Rainfall ...... 3-14 Table 3.9 Annual Maximum Basin Mean Daily Rainfall by Different Causes (Left: Monsoon and Others, Right: Tropical Depressions) ...... 3-15 Table 3.10 Estimated Parameters of Populations ...... 3-15 Table 3.11 Frequency Models to be Analyzed ...... 3-18 Table 3.12 Summary of Probable Rainfall Depth (One Day Rainfall) ...... 3-19 Table 3.13 Summary of Probable Rainfall Depth (Two Day Rainfall) ...... 3-19 Table 3.14 Temporal and Spatial Patterns ...... 3-22 Table 3.15 Rainfall Events Used for Expansion...... 3-22 Table 4.1 Annual Maximum Daily Rainfall Depth at the Port Area from 1981 to 2000 ...... 4-2 Table 4.2 Projected Annual Maximum Daily Rainfall Depth at the Port Area for 2046 to 2065 ...... 4-2 Table 4.3 5-Year Average of Annual Maximum Rainfalls [mm] ...... 4-3 Table 5.1 Example of Estimated Flood Discharge ...... 5-1 Table 5.2 Probable Rainfall ...... 5-2
List of Figures
Figure 1.1 Study Area ...... 1-2 Figure 2.1 Hyetograph of Design Rainstorm by the JICA Preparatory Study (III) ...... 2-3 Figure 2.2 Probable 2-day Rainfall Depth by Sub-basins ...... 2-4 Figure 2.3 Examples of Design Storm Hyetograph – World Bank Study...... 2-5 Figure 2.4 Application of Flood Runoff Model in the JICA Preparatory Study (III) ...... 2-9 Figure 2.5 Design Discharge Distribution for Pasig-Marikina River Channel Improvement Project (30-year Return Period) ...... 2-10 Figure 2.6 Design Discharge Distribution – JICA Preparatory Study (III) ...... 2-11 Figure 2.7 Simulated Flood Peak Discharges during Flood Caused by Tropical Storm Ondoy – JICA Preparatory Study (III) ...... 2-12 Figure 2.8 Simulated Flood Peak Discharges with and without River Channel Improvement in the Case of Tropical Storm Ondoy – JICA Preparatory Study (III) ...... 2-13 Figure 2.9 Water Level - Discharge (H-Q) Curves at Sto. Nino ...... 2-14 Figure 2.10 Image of Flood Simulation Model – World Bank Study ...... 2-15
iii Figure 2.11 Simulated Flood Peak Discharges during Flood Caused by Tropical Storm Ondoy – World Bank Study...... 2-16 Figure 2.12 Simulated Flood Peak Discharge for 30-year and 100-year Return Periods – World Bank Study ...... 2-17 Figure 2.13 Alternatives of Flood Control Measures and Design Discharge Distribution – World Bank Study ...... 2-19 Figure 3.1 Basin Boundary of the Pasig-Marikina River ...... 3-6 Figure 3.2 Longitudinal Profile of the Pasig-Marikina River ...... 3-8 Figure 3.3 Histogram of Duration for Heavy Rainfall Events with Equal or More than 100 mm Total Rainfall Depth (Upper: threshold = 1 mm, Lower: threshold = 5 mm) ...... 3-9 Figure 3.4 Correlations of Rainfall Depth and Water Level (Left: 1 day rainfall, Right: 2 day rainfall) ...... 3-10 Figure 3.5 Basin Mean Rainfall with Using Arithmetic Mean and Thiessen Method (Left: one day rainfall, Right: two day rainfall) ...... 3-12 Figure 3.6 Probable Rainfall (by Typhoon Type) ...... 3-20 Figure 3.7 Probable Rainfall (by Monsoon and Others Type) ...... 3-21 Figure 3.8 Temporal Rainfall Patterns (1/3)-(3/3) ...... 3-23 Figure 3.9 Sub-Basin Boundary in the Pasig-Marikina River Basin and Location of Hourly Rainfall Gauging Stations ...... 3-25 Figure 4.1 Scatter Plot of Five-Year Average Annual Maximum Rainfall at the Port Area ...... 4-3
iv List of Annexes
Annex T 3.1 Inventory of Daily Rainfall Data ...... A-1 Annex T 3.2 Inventory of Hourly Rainfall Data ...... A-2 Annex T 3.3 Hourly Rainfall Records of August 2012 Event (1/4)-(4/4) ...... A-3 Annex T 3.4 Inventory of Hourly Water Level Data ...... A-7 Annex T 3.5 Flood Damage Records for the Period of 1993-2000 ...... A-8 Annex T 3.6 Flood Damage Records in Metro Manila for the Period of 2000-2009 ...... A-9 Annex T 3.7 Annual Maximum Water Level Records at Sto. Nino Gauging Station ...... A-10 Annex T 3.8 Availability of Rainfall Records ...... A-11 Annex T 3.9 Stormy Rainfall Events Extracted from Hourly Rainfall Data ...... A-12 Annex T 3.10 Results of Data Check ...... A-13 Annex T 3.11 Property of Stormy Rainfall Events Extracted from Hourly Rainfall Data (1/3)-(3/3) ...... A-14 Annex T 3.12 Correlation of Rainfall Depth and Peak Water Level (One Day Rainfall) ...... A-17 Annex T 3.12 Correlation of Two Day Rainfall Depth and Peak Water Level (Two Day Rainfall) ...... A-18 Annex T 3.13 Comparison of Arithmetic Mean Method and Thiessen Method (One Day Rainfall) ...... A-19 Annex T 3.13 Comparison of Arithmetic Mean Method and Thiessen Method (Two Day Rainfall) ...... A-20 Annex T 3.14 Basin Mean Rainfall Depth with Arithmetic Mean Method and IDW Method ...... A-21 Annex T 3.15 Correlation Analysis of Rainfall (1/2)-(2/2) ...... A-22 Annex T 3.16 Basin Mean Rainfall with Linear Regression Method ...... A-24 Annex T 3.17 Annual Maximum Basin Mean Rainfall Depth ...... A-25 Annex T 3.18 Type of Weather Disturbance (1/4)-(4/4) ...... A-26 Annex T 3.19 Annual Maximum Basin Mean Rainfall considering Type of Weather Disturbance...... A-30 Annex T 3.20 Probable Rainfall Depth considering Type of Weather Disturbance (1/4)-(4/4) ...... A-31 Annex T 3.21 Thiessen Coefficient (1/2)-(2/2) ...... A-32
Annex F 3.1 Index of Collected Topographic Maps ...... A-37 Annex F 3.2 Examples of Typhoon Records (upper: Wikipedia, lower: Digital Typhoon) ...... A-38 Annex F 3.3 Example of EFCOS Flood Summary Reports (1/3)-(3/3) ...... A-39 Annex F 3.4 Location of Rainfall Gauging Station ...... A-42 Annex F 3.5 Hydrograph and Hyetograph of the Top Ten Events of Peak Water Level (1/2) -(2/2) ...... A-43 Annex F 3.6 Channel and Inlet Area ...... A-45 Annex F 3.7 Thiessend Polygon (1/2)-(2/2) ...... A-46 Annex F 3.8 Basin Mean Rainfall with IDW Method (1/3)-(3/3) ...... A-48
v Annex F 3.9 Scatter Plots of Daily Rainfall Depth (1/4)-(4/4) ...... A-51 Annex F 3.10 Examples of Examination of Weather Disturbance Type (upper: Satellite Image, lower: Typhoon Track)-(2/2) ...... A-55 Annex F 3.11 Probable Rainfall (1/4)-(4/4) ...... A-56
vi Abbreviations
BMR Basin Mean Rainfall BRS Bureau of Research and Standards DEM Digital Elevation Model DOST Department of Science and Technology DPWH Department of Public Works and Highways EFCOS Effective Flood Control and Operation System GCM General Circulation Model GEV Generalized Extreme Value Distribution H-Q Water Level – Discharge IDW Inverse Distance Weighted JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency LLDA Laguna Lake Development Authority MCGS Marikina Control Gate Structure MM Metropolitan Manila MMDA Metropolitan Manila Development Authority MMHWL The Mean of The Monthly Highest Water Level MWSS Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System NAIA Ninoy Aquino International Airport NAMRIA National Mapping and Resource Information Authority NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NHCS Napindan Hydraulic Control Structure NPC National Power Corporation NTMS National Topographic Map Series PAGASA Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration PMO-MFCP Project Management Office - Major Flood Control Projects PRBFFWC Pampanga River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Center RIDF Rainfall Intensity – Duration Frequency SCS Soil Conservation Service, United States SLSC Standard Least Square Criterion Sqrt-Et Square-Root Exponential Type Distribution SRTM-3 Shuttle Radar Topography Mission - 3 Seconds STDV Standard Deviation UPLB University of the Philippines at Los Barios WB The World Bank WL Water Level 1D-HD Model 1 Dimensional Hydro Dynamic Model 2D-HD Model 2 Dimensional Hydro Dynamic Model
vii The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the Study The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Metro Manila and its Adjoining Areas (SWSMP) was conducted in February 2012. The objective of this study is to review the existing water resources development plans in Metro Manila and its adjoining areas under the effects of climate change. In the second steering committee meeting held on August 1, 2012, the Government of the Philippines proposed a plan to utilize a part of the Marikina Reservoir for water supply, which was originally proposed to be used for flood control, . In this context, the scope of works was amended to include the study of the Stormy Rainfall Analysis in the Pasig-Marikina River basin (hereinafter referred to as “the Study”) in November 2012. 1.2 Objective of the Study The objective of the Study is to analyze stormy rainfall in the Pasig-Marikina River basin to review its existing flood control plans. 1.3 Scope of Works The scope of works of the Study are as follows: - The recent “Master Plan for Flood Management in Metro Manila and Surrounding Areas” (WB, 2011-2012) and “The Preparatory Study for Pasig-Marikina River Channel Improvement Project Phase III” (JICA, 2010-2011) were completed. The Study examines the differences of both studies; - The Study analyzes stormy rainfall for design rainfall proposal; and - The Study enumerates the influence of climate change to the design rainfall. 1.4 Study Area The study area is the Pasig-Marikina River basin, as shown in Figure 1.1.
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The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
[Legend] Elevation [m] Basin Boundary (SRTM) River Lake
Pasig-Marikina River Basin
St. Nino San Juan River Marikina River
Rosario Weir Pasig River
Mangahan Floodway NHCS
Napindan Channel
Lake Laguna Basin
Source: Prepared by the Study Team Figure 1.1 Study Area 1.5 Topography and Precipitation in the Pasig-Marikina River Basin The Marikina River starts from the west side slope of the Sierra Madre Mountains at 1400 m above mean sea level (AMSL). The river flows 30 km going southwest. The river then significantly changes in direction to west-northwest and flows 20 km before entering the Marikina Valley which stretches in the southwest direction. The river flows 40 km along the valley and changes its direction going northwest to a point 5 km away from the Laguna Lake. The river meets with the Pasig River, and then flows into the Manila Bay. The width of the Marikina Valley is 5 km. The elevation of its upper reach is 50 m AMSL and the elevation around the Laguna Lake is lower than 20 m AMSL. The lower reach closes the basin boundary and the width of the river basin becomes smaller than 3 km. The area of the basin is approximately 640 km2 which includes some parts of Metro Manila. The lower stretch of the basin (20% of the total) is flat alluvial plain. Metro Manila, where the capital of the Philippines is located, is a densely populated and urbanized area. Its adjoining areas including the mountainous areas have also been developed. Because of this, flood 1 - 2 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin control in the Pasig-Marikina River has been one of the key political concerns of the government throughout the years. The Sto. Niño water level gauging station was constructed by the Effective Flood Control Operational System (EFCOS) Office for flood observation, which is located in the middle of the basin 2 km away from the narrow area of the basin. The center of the basin is located at 14.5° north latitude, 121° east longitude. The annual mean temperature is 26 °C, and the basin belongs to a tropical region. The climate in the area can be divided into two seasons, rainy (or wet) season and dry season. Basically, the wet season from May to October is caused by the southwest monsoon, and the dry season from November to April is caused by the northeast monsoon. Tropical depressions are also frequent in the region, mostly in wet season. Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) passes through the region twice a year in the period from the end of June to the beginning of July, and from the end of August to the beginning of September and bring rainfall with high intensity. This works synergistically and forms the climatic characteristics of the region. The annual rainfall of the basin is 2600 mm. About 80% of the total rainfall occurs during the rainy season. Weather turbulences, which generate precipitation, are orographic effects of the southwest monsoon, tropical depression front, and the convective nature of ITCZ. Intensity duration, temporal distribution, spatial distribution, etc. of the precipitation varies depending on its turbulence. Several weather turbulences often cause precipitation at the same time. Monsoon rains last for several days and brings rain in a wide area. In August 6, 2012, a monsoon rain was raised which reached its peak on August 7 and lasted until August 8, 2012. The basin mean daily rainfall of the Sto. Niño basin on August 7 is estimated at 271.7 mm, the largest daily rainfall for a monsoon rain. On the other hand, the largest recorded rainfall by tropical depression was 290.8 mm, caused by Typhoon Ketsana, which the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) named it as “Ondoy”, on September 26, 2009. Front rain and ITCZ convective rain were not analyzed in the Study due to insufficient available data.
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The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas in the Pasig Marikina River Basin
CHAPTER 2 REVIEW OF THE EXISTING STUDIES
2.1 Introduction Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) carried out the Preparatory Study for Pasig-Marikina River Channel Improvement Project (Phase III) in 2010-2011 (hereinafter referred to as “the JICA Preparatory Study (III)”). The study prepared the project implementation plan for Phase III, including the review and validation of the design flood discharges elaborated by the previous studies. Meanwhile, the World Bank also conducted its study on the Master Plan for Flood Management in Metro Manila and Surrounding Areas in 2011-2012 (hereinafter referred to as “the World Bank Study”). This study formulated the flood control master plans for the Pasig-Marikina River basin, and the urbanized drainage basins in Metro Manila and the Laguna Lake basin. The study included a series of analyses, namely; stormy rainfall analysis, flood runoff analysis, river channel hydraulics, and inundation hydraulics in the planning process. The implementation of the Pasig-Marikina River Channel Improvement Project had been initiated since the early 2000s and being implemented at present on the basis of the Flood Control Master Plan established in 1990 (hereinafter referred to as “the 1990 M/P”). The World Bank Study made major updates in the 1990 M/P with due consideration of the flood event for Tropical Storm Ondoy in September 2009. To initiate the study, this chapter describes the clarifications on the major updates done by the JICA Preparatory Study (III) and the World Bank Study. 2.2 Stormy Rainfall Analysis 2.2.1 JICA Preparatory Study (III) The design rainstorm for the Pasig-Marikina River Channel Improvement Project was established on the basis of the records at the Port Area Station from 1903 up to present. Table 2.1 shows the probable rainfall intensity and duration prepared by the JICA Preparatory Study (III).
Table 2.1 Probable Rainfall Intensity and Duration at the Port Area Return Rainfall Intensity Period (mm/hour) (mm/day) (years) 5 min 10 min 20 min 30 min 60 min 120 min 1 day 2 days 30 255.1 207.1 160.7 135.3 92.8 68.2 311.0 239.2 100 298.5 243.7 188.7 159.1 108.9 80.4 377.0 293.3 Source: The Preparatory Study for Pasig-Marikina River Channel Improvement Project (Phase III), Final Report (JICA/DPWH, October 2011) The JICA Preparatory Study (III) updated the probable rainfall intensity for one-day and two-day rainfall duration from those established in the 2002 Detailed Engineering Design of Pasig-Marikina River Channel Improvement Project by the DPWH (hereinafter referred to as “the 2002 Study”). The JICA Preparatory Study (III) estimated the probable rainfall intensity
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The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas in the Pasig Marikina River Basin for one-day and two-day duration periods on the basis of rainfall records up to 2009, while the estimates in the 2002 study had been based on the records up to 1999, as shown in Table 2.2.
Table 2.2 Probable Rainfall Intensity for One-day and Two-day Duration at Port Area Rainfall Intensity (mm/day) Return Period 2002 Study JICA Preparatory Study (III) (years) 1 day 2 days 1 day 2 days 30 315.9 244.5 311.0 239.2 100 383.8 300.7 377.0 293.3 Source: The Preparatory Study for Pasig-Marikina River Channel Improvement Project (Phase III), Final Report (JICA/DPWH, October 2011) The final report on the Study on Flood Control and Drainage Project in Metro Manila (JICA/DPWH, 1990) had applied the two-day duration for the design rainfall. Based on the hourly mass rainfall curves corresponding to past major flood events, the duration of rainstorm causing major flood had been estimated at the maximum of 48 hours. The Pasig-Marikina River Channel Improvement Project also used the probable two-day rainfall depth as the design rainfall. From Table 2.2 prepared by the JICA Preparatory Study (III), the probable two-day rainfall depth at Port Area was recorded at 478.4 mm for a 30-year return period, and 586.6 mm for a 100-year return period. The JICA Preparatory Study (III) converted the probable rainfall depths at Port Area to basin mean rainfall in the Pasig-Marikina River basin. This was done using the adjustment factor prepared by the 2002 Study: 392.3 mm for a 30-year return period and 445.8 mm for a 100-year return period, as shown in Table 2.3.
Table 2.3 Probable Two-day Rainfall Depth in Pasig-Marikina River Basin Return Period Port Area Adjustment Factor Basin Mean (years) (mm) (mm) 30 478.4 0.82 392.3 100 586.6 0.76 445.8 Source: The Preparatory Study for Pasig-Marikina River Channel Improvement Project (Phase III), Final Report (JICA/DPWH, October 2011) In establishing a model hyetograph (which is the temporal distribution of the design rainfall), the JICA Preparatory Study (III) applied a center-concentrated type, which is the same as used in the 2002 study. For the different probabilities, the model hyetographs for the duration of two days were established applying Kimijima’s equation for rainfall intensity-duration as shown in Table 2.4. Constants such as “a”, “b”, and “n” were obtained based on the probable rainfall intensity-duration at the Port Area. The design rainfall hyetograph can be prepared as shown in Figure 2.1 using the model hyetograph adjusted with the application of the probable two-day rainfall depth in the Pasig-Marikina River basin.
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The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas in the Pasig Marikina River Basin
Table 2.4 Kimijima’s Equation for Rainfall Intensity-Duration
Duration upto 120 min. Kimijima’s Rainfall Intensity Equation: Probability a b n r = a / (tn + b) 1/30 1860.6 4.41 0.66 where, 1/100 2193.8 4.45 0.66 r: Rainfall Intensity (mm/hour) t: Duration (minutes) Duration over 120 mim. a, b, c: Constants Probability a b n 1/30 3694.9 18.25 0.75 1/100 4185.7 17.77 0.74 Source: The Preparatory Study for Pasig-Marikina River Channel Improvement Project (Phase III), Final Report (JICA/DPWH, October 2011)
100 100 Return Period 2-day Rainfall Return Period 48-hourRainfall 90 30 years 392.3 mm 90 100 years 445.8 mm 80 80
70 70
60 60
50 50
40 40 Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (mm) Rainfall
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0 6 12182430364248 6 12182430364248 Hours Hours
Source: Prepared by JICA Study Team, based on the descriptions of the Preparatory Study for Pasig-Marikina River Channel Improvement Project (Phase III), Final Report (JICA/DPWH, October 2011) Figure 2.1 Hyetograph of Design Rainstorm by the JICA Preparatory Study (III) 2.2.2 World Bank Study The World Bank Study analyzed hourly mass rainfall curves corresponding to past major flood events (including Tropical Storm Ondoy) on the basis of the hourly rainfall records accumulated by EFCOS since 1994. This study estimated the maximum duration of rainfall that caused major floods in a period of 48 hours. In conformity with previous studies, the World Bank Study also applied the probable two-day rainfall depth accordingly. The probable two-day basin mean rainfall was estimated for each of sub-basin as shown in Figure 2.2. The basin mean rainfall was estimated based on rainfall records in and around the Pasig-Marikina River basin for the period of 1976-2010 (35 years), with the application of Inverse Distance Weight (IDW).
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The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas in the Pasig Marikina River Basin
Probable Basin Mean Two-day Rainfall (unit: mm) Sub-basin 30-year 100-year Return Period Return Period Marilika River SB-01 367 438 SB-01 SB-02 366 441 Marikina SB-31 382 458 SB-31 Whole Basin 367 439 Pasig
Pasig River SB-02 Source: Master Plan for Flood Management in Metro Manila and Mangahan Surrounding Areas, Final Draft Master Plan Report (World Bank, March 2012)
Laguna Lake Figure 2.2 Probable 2-Day Rainfall Depth by Sub-basins The World Bank Study prepared two different types of design rainfall as shown in Table 2.5 below.
Table 2.5 Outline of Design Rainstorm – World Bank Study Type-I : Type-II: Design Storm Tropical Storm Ondoy Pattern Center-concentrated Pattern Target Flood Flash Flood in Pasig-Marikina River Area Total Volume of Design Storm Probable Basin Averaged 2-day Rainfall Ondoy Pattern Distribution in Time Center-concentrated Pattern (each rainfall-runoff catchment) Uniform in Each Rainfall-Runoff Distribution in Space Uniform in Each Sub-basin Catchment Source: Master Plan for Flood Management in Metro Manila and Surrounding Areas, Final Draft Master Plan Report (World Bank, March 2012) Type-1: Tropical Storm Ondoy Pattern The rain gauges operated by EFCOS recorded hourly rainfall brought by Tropical Storm Ondoy on September 25 and 26, 2009 in and around the Pasig-Marikina River basin. Based on these records, the World Bank Study estimated the hourly rainfall hyetograph for a two-day duration in each of the 34 subdivided rainfall-runoff catchments within the Pasig-Marikina River basin through the Thiessen Polygon Method and adjustment by IDW. The World Bank Study prepared the Table 2.6 Adjustment Factor for Probable design rainfall with different probabilities 2-Day Rainfall Depth for each subdivided rainfall-runoff Sub-basin Return Period Return Period catchment. The hourly rainfall hyetograph 30 years 100 years SB-01 0.906 1.082 during Tropical Storm Ondoy was SB-02 0.918 1.105 adjusted in the design rainfall with the SB-31 0.854 1.024 designated probability, multiplying the Source: Master Plan for Flood Management in Metro Manila and adjustment factor for the probable Surrounding Areas, Final Draft Master Plan Report (World Bank, March 2012) two-day rainfall depth as shown in Table 2.6.
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The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas in the Pasig Marikina River Basin
Type-2: Center-concentrated Pattern The World Bank Study prepared the design rainfall applying the center-concentrated pattern distribution as well. Model hyetographs at the Port Area for the duration of two days with the relationship between the rainfall intensity and duration was originally developed by the Study on Comprehensive Flood Mitigation for Cavite Lowland Area in 2007 (JICA/DPWH). The design hyetographs for each sub-basin was established by applying the estimated distribution rates of the total two-day rainfall by the World Bank Study. Based on the methods above, the design storm hyetographs are prepared as shown in Figure 2.3. Type-1: Tropical Storm Ondoy Type-2: Center-Concentrated (Rainfall-runoff Catchment M-1) (Sub-basin SB-01)
100 100 Return Period 2-day Rainfall Return Period 2-day Rainfall 90 30 Years 373 mm 90 30 Years 367 mm 80 80
70 70
60 60
50 50
40 40 Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (mm) Rainfall
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0 6 12182430364248 6 12182430364248 Hours Hours
100 100 Return Period 2-day Rainfall Return Period 2-day Rainfall 90 100 Years 445 mm 90 100 Years 438 mm 80 80
70 70
60 60
50 50
40 40 Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (mm) Rainfall
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0 6 12182430364248 6 12182430364248 Hours Hours Source: Prepared by JICA Study Team, based on the descriptions of Master Plan for Flood Management in Metro Manila and Surrounding Areas, Final Draft Master Plan Report (World Bank, March 2012) Figure 2.3 Examples of Design Storm Hyetograph – World Bank Study 2.2.3 Major Updates Identified The issues on the stormy rainfall analysis elaborated by the World Bank Study and the JICA Preparatory Study (III) are summarized in Table 2.7.
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The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas in the Pasig Marikina River Basin
The methods applied in the JICA Preparatory Study (III) substantially follow the methods that were adopted in the previous studies (e.g., 2002 Study, 1990 M/P). The World Bank Study analyzed the recorded hourly rainfall hydrographs from the different rain gauges operated by EFCOS during the passage of Tropical Storm Ondoy. The design storm hyetograph was established in each of the 34 rainfall-runoff catchments with due consideration of the spatial distribution of rainfall in the Pasig-Marikina River Basin.
Table 2.7 Stormy Rainfall Analysis - Points of Two Studies JICA Preparatory Study (III) World Bank Study Hourly Center-concentrated Type Type-1: Tropical Storm Ondoy Type Rainfall z Model hyetograph based on the z Hyetograph based on recorded hourly rainfall Hyetograph probable rainfall intensity-duration at Type-2: Center-concentrated Type Port Area z Model hyetograph based on probable rainfall intensity-duration at Port Area Basin Mean Multiplying adjustment factor with Type-1: Tropical Storm Ondoy Type Rainfall rainfall depth at Port Area z Thiessen Method and adjustment by IDW Depth z Assumed as uniform for the whole z Estimated for 34 rainfall-runoff catchments river basin Type-2: Center-concentrated Type z IDW method z Estimated for three sub-basins Probable For the whole river basin Type-1: Tropical Storm Ondoy Pattern 2-day Rainfall z 30-year return period 392.3 mm z Recorded two-day rainfall depth multiplied Depth z 100-year return period 445.8 mm with adjustment factor z Estimated for each of 34 rainfall-runoff catchments z Probable two-day rainfall depth by sub-basin (recalculated by the JICA Study Team) Return Probable Two-day Rainfall Period Depth (mm) SB-01 SB-02 SB-31 30-year 368 369 390 100-year 439 444 468 Type-2: Center-concentrated Pattern z Estimate for each of 3 sub-basins Return Probable Two-day Rainfall Period Depth (mm) SB-01 SB-02 SB-31 30-year 367 366 382 100-year 438 441 458
Source: Prepared by JICA Study Team The final report of the World Bank Study presents the estimated hourly rainfall during Tropical Storm Ondoy for 34 rainfall-runoff catchments. Using these data, the two-day basin mean rainfall depth for each of the three sub-basins are computed as shown in Table 2.8: 406 mm in the Upper Marikina River (SB-01), 402 mm in the catchment areas on the right bank of the Manggahan Floodway (SB-02), and 457 mm in the Pasig River basin and San Juan River basin (SB-31). The probable two-day rainfall depth was obtained using the two-day basin mean rainfall depth multiplied by the adjustment factor (refer to Table 2.6) as shown in Table 2.9.
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The computed probable two-day rainfall depths for a 30-year return period were 368 mm in SB-01, 369 mm in SB-02, and 390 mm in SB-03. The computed values were less than the 392.3 mm estimated rainfall depth by the JICA Preparatory Study for the whole river basin. The estimated probable two-day rainfall depth of 445.8 mm by the JICA Preparatory Study (III) for a 100-year return period is larger than the computed values for SB-01 of 439 mm, which is nearly equivalent in SB-02 (444 mm) and less than SB-31 (468 mm).
Table 2.8 Computed Two-day Rainfall Depth by Sub-basin during the Passage of Tropical Storm Ondoy
Sub-Basin: SB-01 Sub-Basin: SB-02 Sub-Basin: SB-31 48-hour 48-hour 48-hour Rainfall-runoff Area Rainfall-runoff Area Rainfall-runoff Area Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Catchment (km2) Catchment (km2) Catchment (km2) (mm) (mm) (mm) M-1 281.62 411 BU-1 3.79 411 P-1 8.77 377 M-2 97.54 391 BU-2 3.23 400 P-2 4.56 385 M-3 70.11 393 CA-1 2.25 386 P-3 0.59 387 M-4 54.40 421 CA-2 5.12 387 SJ-1 21.73 471 M-5 14.82 398 CA-3 6.93 397 SJ-2 10.30 460 M-6 7.76 438 CA-4 1.79 395 SJ-3 2.12 484 M-7 11.83 383 CA-5 7.22 408 SJ-4 9.49 526 CA-6 3.57 401 SJ-5 7.01 450 CA-7 24.44 410 SJ-6 13.14 498 CA-8 3.96 401 SJ-7 4.55 466 CA-9 3.04 395 SJ-8 12.9 445 TA-1 6.32 403 SJ-9 3.43 424 TA-2 4.51 397 SJ-10 3.97 405 TA-3 4.41 389 Sub-Basin 538.08 406 Sub-Basin 80.58 402 Sub-Basin 102.56 457 Source: Prepared by JICA Study Team, based on the descriptions of Master Plan for Flood Management in Metro Manila and Surrounding Areas, Final Draft Master Plan Report (World Bank, March 2012)
Table 2.9 Computed Probable Two-day Rainfall Depth by Sub-basin Sub-basin 30-year 100-year Return Period Return Period SB-01: Upper Marikina River Basin 368 439 SB-02: Catchment Areas on Right Bank of Manggahan Floodway 369 444 SB-31: Pasig River Basin and San Juan River Basin 390 468 Source: Prepared by JICA Study Team, based on the descriptions of Master Plan for Flood Management in Metro Manila and Surrounding Areas, Final Draft Master Plan Report (World Bank, March 2012) 2.3 Flood Analysis 2.3.1 JICA Preparatory Study (III) (1) Probable Peak Discharge For the purpose of project planning, the Pasig-Marikina River Channel Improvement Project adopted the probable peak discharge at Sto. Niño as the design flood discharge. The probable peak discharge was calculated using the design rainfall and flood runoff model. The JICA Preparatory Study (III) estimated the probable peak discharge on the basis of the annual maximum discharges at Sto. Niño, as shown in Table 2.10. This compares the probable peak discharge with the discharge estimated by the runoff model. The annual maximum discharges
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The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas in the Pasig Marikina River Basin were estimated from the corresponding annual maximum water levels using the following equations prepared by the 2002 Study: Q = 32.03 × (H-10.80)2 H < 17.0 Q = 17.49 × (H-8.61)2 H > 17.0 where, Q: Discharge (m3/sec) H: Water Level (El m) The JICA Preparatory Study (III) estimated the peak discharge of 3211 m3/sec at Sto. Niño during the passage of Tropical Storm Ondoy in September 2009. Table 2.11 shows the probable peak discharges estimated by the 2002 Study and the JICA Preparatory Study (III). Based on the comparison, there is no outstanding difference between the two estimates.
Table 2.10 Table 2.11 Annual Maximum Discharges at Sto. Niño – Probable Peak JICA Preparatory Study (III) Discharges at Sto. Recorded Calculated Recorded Calculated Year Year Niño – JICA Water Level Discharge Water Level Discharge (EL m) (m3/sec) (EL m) (m3/sec) Preparatory Study 1958 14.78 507 1978-85 N/A (III) 1959 N/A 2,072 1986 20.92 2,650 1960 18.06 1,562 1987-93 N/A 2002 2011 Return Period 1961 16.82 1,161 1994 16.33 980 Detailed Preparatory 1962 17.10 1,261 1995 18.40 1,676 (years) 1963 16.19 931 1996 16.08 893 Design Study Study 1964 17.45 1,367 1997 17.16 1,279 2 1,350 1,250 1965 15.48 702 1998 18.41 1,680 5 1,870 1,820 1966 19.40 2,036 1999 18.30 1,642 1967 18.20 1,609 2000 19.02 1,895 10 2,210 2,200 1968 16.68 1,107 2001 16.31 972 20 2,550 2,750 1969 17.45 1,367 2002 17.94 1,523 1970 20.48 2,464 2003 17.76 1,464 30 2,740 2,770 1971 14.50 439 2004 19.08 1,917 50 2,980 3,030 1972 18.05 1,559 2005 16.03 876 100 3,310 3,390 1973 13.95 318 2006 16.37 993 1974 13.98 324 2007 16.90 1,192 No. of Sample 28 37 1975 13.70 269 2008 16.74 1,130 Source: The Preparatory Study for Pasig-Marikina River Channel 1976 16.90 1,192 2009 22.16 3,211 Improvement Project (Phase III), Final Report 1977 19.44 2,051 (JICA/DPWH, October 2011) Source: The Preparatory Study for Pasig-Marikina River Channel Improvement Project (Phase III), Final Report (JICA/DPWH, October 2011)
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The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas in the Pasig Marikina River Basin
(2) Flood Runoff Analysis The Pasig-Marikina River Channel Improvement Project employed the rainfall-runoff model consisting of a storage Marilika River function model in the upper Marikina River San Juan River Basin basin and a quasi-linear model in the QuasiLinearModel Marikina River Basin urbanized areas of the Pasig River basin and Storage Function Model San Juan the San Juan River basin, as shown in River Figure 2.4 Pasig River The Study assumed that no natural drainage would occur from low-lying areas to the river channel in the lower reaches of the Pasig Laguna Lake River. Runoff in the low-lying areas could be Source: The Preparatory Study for Pasig-Marikina River Channel discharged through pumped drainage system. Improvement Project (Phase III), Final Report (JICA/DPWH, October 2011) Figure 2.4 Application of Flood Runoff Model in the JICA Preparatory Study (III) The JICA Preparatory Study (III) validated the rainfall-runoff model based on two flood events: Tropical Storm Winnie in late November 2004 and Tropical Storm Yoyong in early December 2004. Sufficient hydrological records were available in the Pasig-Marikina River basin for the two said events. The storage function model was validated to fit the simulated runoff hydrograph with the observed runoff hydrograph at Sto. Niño. The original model parameters adopted in the 2002 Study for time lag (TL) between rainfall and runoff were modified in the validation process. Model parameters given in the 2002 study were adopted for quasi-linear modeling to estimate the extent of inundation in the lower reaches. The JICA Preparatory Study (III) did not Table 2.12 apply the records from the passage of Probable Peak Discharges at Sto. Niño – JICA Preparatory Study (III) Tropical Storm Ondoy for the validation of Location 30-year 100-year the rainfall-runoff model. It was because a Wawa 1,590 1,890 proper flood hydrograph at Sto. Niño could Rodriguez Bridge 2,110 2,500 not be obtained as the water level gauge was Before Nangka River 2,420 2,850 broken during the flood peak. Nangka River 640 730 The JICA Preparatory Study (III) performed Sto Niño 2,740 3,210 simulations using the design rainfall for Manggahan Floodway 1,820 2,100 30-year and 100-year return periods as Before Napindan Channel 920 1,130 shown in Table 2.12. The simulated results Before San Juan River 955 1,155 correspond to the design discharge San Juan River 690 770 distributions in the case of without Marikina Manila Bay 1,200 1,400 Control Gate Structure (MCGS) as shown in Source: The Preparatory Study for Pasig-Marikina River Channel Figure 2.6. Improvement Project (Phase III), Final Report (JICA/DPWH, October 2011)
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(3) Design Discharge Distribution The design discharge distribution for the Pasig-Marikina River Channel Improvement Project had been established in the previous study as shown in Figure 2.5. The result of the hydraulic model test conducted in 1983 indicates diversion of flood through the Manggahan Floodway. The 2002 Study identified the change in the diversion due to capacity reduction in the Source: The Preparatory Study for Pasig-Marikina River Channel Improvement Project (Phase III), Final Report river channel caused by sedimentation, on (JICA/DPWH, October 2011) the basis of the test results. Figure 2.5 Design Discharge Distribution for Pasig-Marikina River Channel Improvement Project (30-year Return Period) The JICA Preparatory Study (III) modified the equation to estimate flood discharges diverted to the Manggahan Floodway through one-dimensional hydrodynamic analysis. With the application of the modified equation in estimating the flood discharges to the Manggahan Floodway, the JICA Preparatory Study (III) reviewed the design discharge distribution as shown in Figure 2.6. It was concluded that the design discharge distribution by the previous study (Figure 2.5) could be applicable for the Phase III project.
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Without MCGS
Marikina Marikina River River Return Period 1,590 Return Period 1,890 30 Years 100 Years 2,110 2,500
Unit: m3/sec Unit: m3/sec Nangka Nangka 2,420 River 2,850 River 640 730
San Juan River 2,740 San Juan River 3,210 Sto. Nino Sto. Nino
690 Pasig River 770 Pasig River
1,210 955 920 1,400 1,155 1,130 Rosario Rosario NHCS NHCS Manila Bay P P Weir Manila Bay P P Weir 0 1,820 02,100 Napindan Mangahan Napindan Mangahan Channel Floodway Channel Floodway
Laguna Lake Laguna Lake With MCGS
Marikina Marikina River River Return Period 1,590 Return Period 1,890 30 Years 100 Years 2,110 2,500
Unit: m3/sec Unit: m3/sec Nangka Nangka 2,420 River 2,850 River 640 730
San Juan River 2,740 San Juan River 3,210 Sto. Nino Sto. Nino
690 Pasig River MCGS 770 Pasig River MCGS
1,160 575 530 1,310 585 500 Rosario Rosario NHCS NHCS Manila Bay P P Weir Manila Bay P P Weir 02,230 02,720 Napindan Mangahan Napindan Mangahan Channel Floodway Channel Floodway
Laguna Lake Laguna Lake
Source: The Preparatory Study for Pasig-Marikina River Channel Improvement Project (Phase III), Final Report (JICA/DPWH, October 2011) Figure 2.6 Design Discharge Distribution – JICA Preparatory Study (III) (3) Flood Inundation Analysis The JICA Preparatory Study (III) carried out a simulation on flood inundation for the passage of Tropical Storm Ondoy as shown in Table 2.13.
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Table 2.13 Conditions for Flood Inundation Analysis – JICA Preparatory Study (III) Calculation Method River Channel: One-dimensional hydrodynamics Flood Plain: Two-dimensional hydrodynamics River Channel Condition Existing / Improved after Phase III Coefficient of Roughness 0.050 (general value) on Flood Plain Resolution 100 m × 100 m Flood Overtopping Dike Honma’s formula Boundary Condition Manila Bay: Model curve for tide level with time, MMHWL of EL 11.4 m Laguna Lake: El 12.2 m; average water level during past flood events Input Simulated flood hydrograph during flood event of Tropical Storm Ondoy Source: The Preparatory Study for Pasig-Marikina River Channel Improvement Project (Phase III), Final Report (JICA/DPWH, October 2011)
The JICA Preparatory Study (III) presented Marikina the simulated flood peak discharges during River Tropical Storm Ondoy the flood caused by Tropical Storm Ondoy 4,500 as shown in Figure 2.7. Unit: m3/sec Nangka The results of the simulation suggested that River the flood discharge exceeding over the original 100-year design flood discharge had San Juan River 3,500 taken place in the upstream reaches of 500 Pasig River
Sto. Niño, which caused river dike breaches. 800 1,300
The spilled water had caused widespread Manila Bay inundation in the eastern side (left bank) of 2,200 Napindan Mangahan the Marikina River and Manggahan Channel Floodway
Floodway. Laguna Lake The JICA Preparatory Study (III) reported Source: The Preparatory Study for Pasig-Marikina River Channel Improvement Project (Phase III), Final Report that the occurrence of the river dike (JICA/DPWH, October 2011) breaches was confirmed and widespread Figure 2.7 inundation through interview survey was Simulated Flood Peak Discharges during Flood conducted. Caused by Tropical Storm Ondoy – JICA Preparatory Study (III) The JICA Preparatory Study (III) carried out the following scenario simulations under the flood event of Tropical Storm Ondoy. z “Without” River Channel Improvement Project of Phase III z “With” River Channel Improvement Project of Phase III z “Without” Manggahan Floodway The results of the scenario simulations are as shown in Table 2.14.
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Table 2.14 Inundation Area Estimated by Scenario Simulation - JICA Preparatory Study (III) Without River Channel With River Channel Without Manggahan Scenario Improvement Improvement (Phase III) Floodway Estimated Inundation Area 86.77 72.93 113.28 (km2) Source: The Preparatory Study for Pasig-Marikina River Channel Improvement Project (Phase III), Final Report (JICA/DPWH, October 2011)
With Phase III Project Without Manggahan Floodway
Marikina Marikina River River Tropical Storm Ondoy Tropical Storm Ondoy After Phase II and III Without Mangahan Floodway 4,500 4,500
Unit: m3/sec Unit: m3/sec Nangka Nangka River River
San Juan River 3,500 San Juan River 3,500
500 Pasig River 500 Pasig River
850 650 1,300 1,000 1,500 Manila Bay Manila Bay 2,100 0 Napindan Mangahan Napindan Channel Floodway Channel
Laguna Lake Laguna Lake
Source: The Preparatory Study for Pasig-Marikina River Channel Improvement Project (Phase III), Final Report (JICA/DPWH, October 2011) Figure 2.8 Simulated Flood Peak Discharges with and without River Channel Improvement in the Case of Tropical Storm Ondoy – JICA Preparatory Study (III) The JICA Preparatory Study (III) reported the following conclusions regarding the effects of Phase III Works and of the Manggahan Floodway: z The main works contemplated by the Phase III cover river dike construction in the lower reaches. As the said widespread inundation has occurred in the upper reaches, flood mitigation works by Phase III seem to be insubstantial. In comparison between “without” and “with” Phase III project, flood mitigation effects can be reduce the extent of inundated areas. z Without the Manggahan Floodway, the flood discharges in the Pasig River and the Napindan Channel will increase. Eventually, the inundated areas will also increase. The Study confirmed that the Manggahan Floodway is effective for flood mitigation in the lower reaches of the Pasig-Marikina River.
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2.3.2 World Bank Study
(1) Estimate of Peak Discharge 5,000 The World Bank Study estimated the 4,500 probable peak discharge on the basis of the 4,000 3,950 m3/sec 3,500 annual maximum discharges at Sto. Niño 3,211 m3/sec as shown in Table 2.15. The World Bank 3,000 Study estimated the annual maximum 2,500 2,000
discharges from the corresponding annual (m3/sec) Discharge 1,500 maximum water levels using the following 1,000 equation: 500 EL 22.16 m (Ondoy ) EL (Ondoy m 22.16 Q = 31.44 × (H-10.95)2 H > 13.0 0 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 where, Water Level (EL m) 3 World Bank Study JICA Preparatory Study (III) Q: Discharge (m /sec) H: Water Level (EL. m) Source: Prepared by JICA Study Team, based on the descriptions of the final reports of the JICA Preparatory Study (III) and the World Bank Study Figure 2.9 Water Level - Discharge (H-Q) Curves at Sto. Niño
The World Bank Study reported that the Table 2.15 equation was developed with the following Annual Maximum Discharges at Sto. Niño – World water levels and discharges: Bank Study Recorded Calculated Recorded Calculated Year Year z The observed discharges are available Water Level Discharge Water Level Discharge for 1958-1986 as described in the (EL m) (m3/sec) (EL m) (m3/sec) 1958 14.78 460 1978-85 N/A Study on Flood Control and Drainage 1959 17.72 1,440 1986 20.92 3,130 1960 18.06 1,590 1987-93 N/A Project in Metro Manila, Final Report 1961 16.82 1,080 1994 16.33 910 (JICA/DPWH, 1990). 1962 17.10 1,190 1995 18.40 1,750 1963 16.19 860 1996 16.08 830 z The annual maximum water level 1964 17.45 1,330 1997 17.16 1,210 1965 15.48 650 1998 18.41 1,750 values have been available since 1994. 1966 19.40 2,250 1999 18.30 1,700 1967 18.20 1,650 2000 19.02 2,050 Based on the observed maximum 1968 16.68 1,030 2001 16.31 900 water levels and the river 1969 14.65 430 2002 17.94 1,540 1970 N/A 2003 17.76 1,460 cross-section surveyed about 50 m 1971 N/A 2004 19.08 2,080 downstream of Sto. Niño, the annual 1972 18.05 1,590 2005 16.03 810 1973 13.95 280 2006 16.37 920 maximum discharges were estimated 1974 13.98 290 2007 16.90 1,110 assuming that Manning’s roughness 1975 13.70 240 2008 16.74 1,050 1976 15.82 750 2009 22.16 3,950 coefficient is 0.033 and hydraulic 1977 19.44 2,270 gradient is 1/1500. Source: Master Plan for Flood Management in Metro Manila and Surrounding Areas, Final Draft Master Plan Report (World Bank, March 2012)
The World Bank Study estimated that the peak discharge of 3950 m3/sec at Sto. Niño during the passage of Tropical Storm Ondoy in September 2009, but did not evaluate its probability.
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(2) Flood Runoff, River Channel, and Inundation Analysis The World Bank Study established a flood simulation model integrating the catchment areas, river channels, and flood plains as shown in Figure 2.9. z Catchment Areas: Rainfall-runoff model (SCS unit hydrograph) z River Channels: One-dimensional hydrodynamic model z Flood Plains: Two-dimensional hydrodynamic model Marikina River
San Juan River Legend
Catchment Area (Rainfall-Runoff Model)
Pasig River River Channel (1D-HD Model)
Flood Plain (2D-HD Model)
Manila Bay Water level Boundary Laguna Lake Source: Master Plan for Flood Management in Metro Manila and Surrounding Areas, Final Draft Master Plan Report (World Bank, March 2012) Figure 2.10 Image of Flood Simulation Model – World Bank Study The World Bank Study calibrated and validated the flood simulation model based on observed records during selected flood events as mentioned in Table 2.16.
Table 2.16 Flood Events for the Calibration and Validation of Flood Simulation Model in the World Bank Study Change in Water Max. Water Level of Laguna Level at Sto. Case Date Lake in two Remarks Niño days (EL m) (m) September Calibration 22.2 1.04 Past maximum flood (Ondoy) 25-26, 2009 November Second highest water level at Sto. Niño Validation 19.1 0.33 29-30, 2004 after 1994 October Second highest change in water level in Validation 18.4 0.86 22-23,1998 the Laguna Lake for two days Source: Master Plan for Flood Management in Metro Manila and Surrounding Areas, Final Draft Master Plan Report (World Bank, March 2012) The World Bank Study reported that the calibration and validation of the flood simulation model were performed in the following manner: z The flood simulation model fit reasonably with the simulated peak discharges at Sto. Niño as well as the highest water levels at the different locations with corresponding available records. The inundation due to the overtopping of the Pasig-Marikina River was simulated quite accurately as compared with the observation.
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The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas in the Pasig Marikina River Basin z Using the calibrated model, two different flood events were simulated for the purpose of validation. The flood simulation model fit reasonably with the simulated peak discharges at Sto. Niño and highest recorded water levels at different locations with available data.
Table 2.17 Results of Calibration – World Bank Study Location Observed Simulated Laguna Lake 13.8 13.8 Montalban Bridge 29.7 29.8 Sto. Niño 22.2 21.8 Water Level (EL m) Rosario 17.9 17.7 Napindan N/A 14.1 Pandacan 13.6 13.6 San Juan 15.9 16.0 Discharge (m3/sec) Sto Niño 3,950 3,900 Source: Master Plan for Flood Management in Metro Manila and Surrounding Areas, Final Draft Master Plan Report (World Bank, March 2012) Resulting from the simulation, the World Bank Study presented the simulated flood peak discharges during flood caused by Tropical Storm Ondoy as shown in Figure 2.11. Results of the simulation suggested that the estimated flood discharge of 4500 m3/s which has exceeded the original 100-year design flood discharge of 3500 m3/sec would have taken place at Sto. Niño. This would result in eventual river dike breaches and widespread inundation along the east (left bank) of the Marikina River and Manggahan Floodway.
Wawa Tropical Storm Ondoy 3,300
Unit: m3/sec Montalban Bridge 4,400
Natural Retarding
San Maeto Bridge 4,200 Nangka River
San Juan River
Inundation 4,600 Overflow along River
Marikina River 700
1,000 Overflow Sto. Nino 3,900 Overflow
Pasig River 200 700
1,400 750 1,400 3,200 Rosario Weir Tributaries Overflow from Overflow Manila Bay Manila Overflow 700 NHCS 2,200 200 2,000 Overflow
600100 2,100 Napindan Mangahan Channel Floodway
Laguna Lake
Source: Master Plan for Flood Management in Metro Manila and Surrounding Areas, Final Draft Master Plan Report (World Bank, March 2012) Figure 2.11 Simulated Flood Peak Discharges during Flood Caused by Tropical Storm Ondoy – World Bank Study
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(3) Simulations Based on Design Rainstorm The World Bank Study adopted two different design rainfall patterns in its simulation, namely Tropical Storm Ondoy Pattern (Type 1) and Center-concentrated Pattern (Type 2). The World Bank Study presented simulated flood peak discharges for 30-year and 100-year return periods as shown in Figure 2.12. Flood peak discharges were simulated under the condition that overtopping from river channels would take place. The estimated flood peak discharges yielded by the design rainfall in Type 1 were larger than those of the design rainfall in Type 2. The World Bank Study selected the estimated flood peak discharges yielded by the design rainfall in Type 1 as the design flood discharges.
Type-I Wawa Type-II Wawa
Return Period 30 Years 3,000 Return Period 30 Years 3,200
Unit: m3/sec Montalban Bridge 4,000 Unit: m3/sec Montalban Bridge 4,000
San Maeto Bridge 3,800 San Maeto Bridge 3,600 Nangka River Nangka River
San Juan River San Juan River
4,100 3,800 Marikina River Marikina River Marikina
850 Sto. Nino 3,600 650 Sto. Nino 3,500 Pasig River Pasig River
1,300 750 1,200 3,100 Rosario Weir 1,200 700 1,100 3,100 Rosario Weir Manila Bay Manila Bay Manila
600 NHCS 2,100 550 NHCS 2,100
Napindan Mangahan Napindan Mangahan Channel Floodway Channel Floodway
Laguna Lake Laguna Lake
Type-I Wawa Type-II Wawa
Return Period 100 Years 3,600 Return Period 100 Years 3,700
Montalban Bridge 4,800 3 Montalban Bridge 4,700 Unit: m3/sec Unit: m /sec
San Maeto Bridge 4,600 San Maeto Bridge 4,300 Nangka River Nangka River
San Juan River San Juan River
5,000 4,500 Marikina River Marikina River Marikina
1,000 Sto. Nino 4,100 750 Sto. Nino 3,900 Pasig River Pasig River
1,300 800 1,300 3,400 Rosario Weir 1,200 700 1,300 3,300 Rosario Weir Manila Bay Manila Bay Manila
650 NHCS 2,400 600 NHCS 2,300
Napindan Mangahan Napindan Mangahan Channel Floodway Channel Floodway
Laguna Lake Laguna Lake
Source: Master Plan for Flood Management in Metro Manila and Surrounding Areas, Final Draft Master Plan Report (World Bank, March 2012) Figure 2.12 Simulated Flood Peak Discharge for 30-year and 100-year Return Periods – World Bank Study
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(4) Design Discharge Distribution The World Bank Study assumed that the adopted 100-year probable flood would cause river dike breaches in the upstream reach of Sto. Niño as well as the widespread inundation of the eastern side of the Marikina River and Manggahan Floodway. Based on these assumptions, the World Bank Study presented four alternative design discharge distribution for the 100-year return period as shown in Figure 2.13. Alternative 3 and 4 assumed the design discharge of 2900 m3/sec, at Sto. Niño, the same design discharge adopted by the previous study, with the proposed Marikina Reservoir and retarding basins between Montalban Bridge and Sto. Niño. The design discharges had become larger than those planned in the previous studies for the river sections of the Lower Marikina River (from Rosario to Napindan) and the Pasig River (from Napindan to Manila Bay), in the cases of Alternative 2 and 3. To cope with the increase of design discharge in these river sections, the World Bank Study proposed the following additional works to the Pasig-Marikina River Channel Improvement Project Phases II and III: z Additional flood walls along the lower Marikina River, and z Riverbed dredging for the Pasig River from the confluence with the San Juan River to the river mouth.
Table 2.18 Alternatives of Flood Control Measures – World Bank Study River Section Alternative-0 Alternative-1 Alternative-2 Alternative-3 Pasig River from Manila Bay Dredging, Widening, Dredging Dredging Dredging to confuence of San Juan and Reconstruction Channel Width 90 Channel Width 90 Channel Width 90 River of Dike m m m Channel Width 130 m Pasig River from confluence Excavation, Existing Condition Existing Condition Existing Condition of San Juan River to Widening and W = 90 m W = 90 m W = 90 m confluence of Napindan Reconstruction of Channel Dike W = 130 m San Juan River Flood Wall Flood Plain Flood Plain Flood Plain Management Management Management Napindan Channel Heightening Flood Heightening Flood Heightening Flood Heightening Flood Wall Wall Wall Wall H = 0.3 to 1.0 m H = 0.3 to 1.0 m H = 0.3 to 1.0 m H = 0.3 to 1.0 m Marikina River from Widening and Flood Flood Wall Flood Wall MCGS confluence of Napindan Wall H = 0.8 to 2.4 m H = 0.8 to 2.4 m Channel to confluence of W = 120 m Manggahan Floodway H = 2 to 3 m Manggahan Floodway Excavation and Removal of Removal of Removal of Widening Sediment Sediment Sediment W = 270 m Marikina River from Excavation, Excavation and Excavation and Excavation and confluence of Manggahan Widening and Flood Dike Dike Dike Floodway to Sto. Niño Wall W = 90 m W = 70 m W = 70 m W = 140 m
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Marikina River from Sto. Small Concrete Small Concrete Small Concrete Small Concrete Niño to Montalban Bridge Wall, Retarding Wall, Retarding Wall, Retarding Wall, Retarding Basin, and River Basin, and River Basin, and River Basin, and River Area Management Area Management Area Management Area Management Marikina River from Flood Plain Flood Plain Flood Plain Flood Plain Montalban Bridge to Wawa Management and Management and Management and Management and River Area River Area River Area River Area Management Management Management Management Small Marikina Large Marikina Large Marikina Dam Dam Dam Project Cost (PHP million) 444,041 202,094 198,435 208,776 Source: Master Plan for Flood Management in Metro Manila and Surrounding Areas, Final Draft Master Plan Report (World Bank, March 2012)
Wawa Wawa Alternative-0 Alternative-1 3,600 1,900
Montalban Bridge 4,800 Montalban Bridge 3,000 Unit: m3/sec Unit: m3/sec
San Maeto Bridge San Maeto Bridge
San Juan River San Juan River
1,800 Sto. Nino 4,600 1,000 Sto. Nino 3,400 Pasig River Pasig River
1,900 850 800 1,500 4,700 Rosario Weir 1,900 850 800 1,300 1,200 3,500 Rosario Weir Manila Bay Manila Bay
1,100 NHCS 3,300 700 NHCS 2,300
Napindan Mangahan Napindan Mangahan Channel Floodway Channel Floodway
Laguna Lake Laguna Lake
Wawa Wawa Alternative-2 Alternative-3 900 900
Montalban Bridge 2,400 Montalban Bridge 2,400 Unit: m3/sec Unit: m3/sec
San Maeto Bridge San Maeto Bridge
San Juan River San Juan River
1,000 Sto. Nino 2,900 1,000 Sto. Nino 2,900 Pasig River Pasig River
1,800 850 800 1,200 1,000 3,000 Rosario Weir 1,700 800 750 700 600 3,000 Rosario Weir Manila Bay Manila Bay
600 NHCS 2,000 300 NHCS 2,400
Napindan Mangahan Napindan Mangahan Channel Floodway Channel Floodway
Laguna Lake Laguna Lake
Source: Master Plan for Flood Management in Metro Manila and Surrounding Areas, Final Draft Master Plan Report (World Bank, March 2012) Figure 2.13 Alternatives of Flood Control Measures and Design Discharge Distribution– World Bank Study
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2.3.3 Major Updates Identified It was recognized that the major updates by the World Bank Study are the application of the design discharges based on the flood caused by Tropical Storm Ondoy. The World Bank Study estimated the flood peak discharge at Sto. Niño during the passage of Tropical Storm Ondoy to be 3950 m3/sec, while the JICA Preparatory Study (III) estimated it to be 3211 m3/sec. The difference between two estimates is attributable to the applications of different H-Q equations. For the Pasig-Marikina River Channel Improvement Project, the H-Q equation for Sto. Niño is one of the fundamental planning conditions applied in previous studies, i.e. the 2002 Study and the JICA Preparatory Study (III). Therefore, there has been a significant reason for the World Bank Study to revise its H-Q equations. Through the review of two studies as described in this chapter, it is presumed that the reason would include the following considerations although the details thereof have not been not identified: z The flood damage survey concluded that there is a high possibility that Tropical Storm Ondoy has caused river dike breaches in the upstream reaches of Sto. Niño and widespread inundation along the east of the Marikina River and Manggahan Floodway; z The hydraulic study concluded that the river dike breaches and succeeding widespread inundation was caused by flood discharge much larger than the design discharge adopted in the previous studies; and z The recorded two-day rainfall depth during Tropical Storm Ondoy was evaluated to be equivalent to a 70-year return period. In the meantime, no outstanding difference was found in the probable two-day rainfall depth between the two studies. The rainfall-runoff model was necessary to be modified to yield a much larger discharge sufficient enough to cause river dike breaches and succeeding widespread inundation. Table 2.19 shows a more detailed comparison of the flood analysis between the two studies.
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The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas in the Pasig Marikina River Basin
Table 2.19 Flood Analysis – Comparison between Two Studies JICA Preparatory Study (III) World Bank Study Probable Peak The annual maximum water levels for 1958-1977, The annual maximum water levels for 1958-1977, Discharge at 1986 and 1994-2009 were converted into the 1986 and 1994-2009 were converted into the Sto. Niño annual maximum discharges annual maximum discharges z H-Q Equation z H-Q Equation Q = 32.03 ×( H-10.80)2 H < 17.0 Q = 31.44 ×( H-10.96)2 H > 13.0 Q = 17.49 × (H-8.61)2 H > 17.0
Flood peak discharge during Tropical Storm Ondoy Flood peak discharge during Tropical Storm Ondoy z 3211 m3/sec z 3950 m3/sec
Probable Peak Discharge z 30-year return period 2750 m3/sec z 100-year return period 3390 m3/sec
Probable peak discharge by previous study z 30-year return period 2900 m3/sec z 100-year return period 3500 m3/sec Flood Analysis Rainfall-runoff model Flood simulation model integrating catchment z Storage function model for mountainous areas, river channels and flood plains catchment areas z Catchment Areas: Rainfall-runoff model (SCS z Quasi-linear model for urbanized catchment unit hydrograph) areas z River Channels: One-dimensional hydrodynamic model z Flood Plains: Two-dimensional hydrodynamic model
Model calibration and validation Model calibration and validation z Simulations for two flood events in 2004 z Simulation for flood caused by Tropical Storm z Simulated hydrograph to be fit with recorded Ondoy (2009) hydrograph z Simulated peak discharge and highest water z Modification of original model parameter for levels at different locations to be fit with time lag between rainfall and runoff recorded data z Simulations for flood events in 1998 and 2004 Probable Flood Simulated discharge at Sto. Niño Simulated discharge at Sto. Niño Discharge z 30-year return period 2740 m3/sec z 30-year return period 3600 m3/sec z 100-year return period 3210 m3/sec z 100-year return period 4100 m3/sec z No overtopping considered z Overtopping and inundation considered z Assuming river dike breaches followed by the widespread inundation along the east of the Marikina River and Manggahan Floodway
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The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas in the Pasig Marikina River Basin
JICA Preparatory Study (III) World Bank Study Design Sole river channel improvement, 100-year return Sole river channel improvement 100-year return Discharge period (refer to Figure 2.6, without MCGS) period (refer to Figure 2.12, Alternative 0) Distribution Section Q (m3/sec) Section Q (m3/sec) Wawa 1890 Wawa 3600 Rodriguez Bridge 2500 Montalban Bridge 4800 Before Nangka River 2850 (Retarding Basin) Sto. Niño 3210 Sto. Niño 4600 Manggahan Floodway 2100 Manggahan Floodway 3300 Lower Marikina River 1130 Lower Marikina River 1500 Napindan Channel 0 Napindan Channel 1100 Pasig River 1155 Pasig River 850 San Juan River 770 San Juan River 1800 Pasig River–Manila Bay 1400 Pasig River–Manila Bay 1900
Proposed river channel improvement (Phase III), Proposed flood control measures for 100-year 30-year return period (refer to Figure 2.6, without return period: Marikina Reservoir, retarding basin, MCGS) and river channel improvement (refer to Figure 2.12, Alternative 2) Section Q (m3/sec) Section Q (m3/sec) Wawa 1590 Wawa 3600 Rodriguez Bridge 2110 Marikina Reservoir 900 Before Nangka River 2420 Montalban Bridge 2400 Sto. Niño 2740 (Retarding Basin) Manggahan Floodway 1820 Sto. Niño 2900 Lower Marikina River 920 Manggahan Floodway 2000 Napindan Channel 0 Lower Marikina River 1000 Pasig River 955 Napindan Channel 600 San Juan River 690 Pasig River 850 Pasig River–Manila Bay 1210 San Juan River 1000 Pasig River–Manila Bay 1800
Source: Prepared by JICA Study Team, based on the descriptions of the final reports of the JICA Preparatory Study (III) and the World Bank Study
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CHAPTER 3 THE DESIGN STORMY RAINFALLS
3.1 Approach In the JICA Master Plan Study of the Pasig-Marikina River 1990, the design stormy rainfall was calculated with the observed rainfall depth taken at the Port Area Rainfall Gauging Station. The Port Area station is located outside of the Pasig-Marikina River basin. In the JICA Preparatory Study (III), the design stormy rainfall was revised using the updated data from the Port Area station. Presently hourly rainfall and water level data observed by EFCOS which started in 1994 are available. Some of the EFCOS stations are located inside of the Pasig-Marikina River basin. In this Study, rainfall analysis was conducted using EFCOS data as well as daily rainfall data. The following items were studied in this chapter: - Design control point, - Design rainfall duration, - Probable maximum rainfall depth, and - Design rainfall pattern. The types of weather disturbances, which bring stormy rainfall in the area were considered in the analysis. 3.2 Meteorological and Hydrological Observation 3.2.1 Data Collection (1) Collection of Daily Rainfall Data Daily rainfall records were collected from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), National Power Corporation (NPC) and Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System (MWSS). In the Water Balance Study, daily rainfall data had been partly collected. Additional daily rainfall data was also collected in this Study. The list of collected daily rainfall data is shown in Annex T 3.1. (2) Collection of Hourly Rainfall Data Hourly rainfall records were collected from the office of the EFCOS and the Pampanga River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (PRBFFWC). Hourly rainfall data from PRBFFWC had been collected in the previous water balance study, while hourly rainfall data from EFCOS was collected in this Study. The list of collected hourly rainfall data is shown in Annex T 3.2. Supplementary hourly rainfall records during the monsoon rainfall in August 4 to 8, 2012 were also provided as shown in Annex T 3.3. EFCOS EFCOS observes and records hourly rainfall data in Metro Manila. The Japanese Financial Cooperation System contributed to the establishment of EFCOS for the transmission of rainfall and water level information to the Rosario Master Control Station for the Manggahan 3 - 1 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Flood Gate operation and flood warning. The station disseminates warning signals to areas along the Manggahan Floodway when it releases water from the river to Laguna Lake. Seven telemetered rainfall gauging stations were originally installed, but only four stations are currently operating. PRBFFWC PRBFFWC is an office center of PAGASA, which is one of the service institutes of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST). PRBFFWC is tasked on the monitoring and forecasts of hydrological situations, and provision of flood warnings to flood-prone areas within the Pampanga River basin and Guagua River basin systems. The center also maintains and operates several rainfall and river gauging stations that are strategically located within the said basin areas. (3) Daily and Hourly Rainfall Data from Other Sources Some efforts were made to collect additional hourly rainfall data to make the study more accurate. The information on hourly rainfall data from other related agencies is shown in Table 3.1. Table 3.1 Daily and Hourly Rainfall Data in Other Sources Authority Station Name Situation PAGASA Infanta Six-hour rainfall records are available from 1951 to 2009. MWSS Ipo Dam Only daily rainfall data is available. PRBFFWC used to operate the hourly rainfall gauge at Ipo Dam, which is now non-operational. La Mesa Dam Only daily rainfall data is available. Pasig City Government - No rain gauges are installed. The city only installed CCTV monitoring system of the Pasig River. Manila Port Port Area PAGASA operates the rain gauge. Ninoy Aquino International NAIA PAGASA operates the rain gauge. Airport (NAIA) Source: Prepared by the Study Team
(4) Collection of Rainfall Intensity Data Annual maximum values of 5-minute, 10-minute, 20-minute, 30-minute, 60-minute, 120-minute, 1-day, and 2-day rainfall records at the Port Area and Science Garden stations are shown in the JICA Preparatory Study (III). Probable maximum rainfall intensity data, which is also called as the Rainfall Intensity-Duration Frequency data (RIDF), of synoptic stations were collected from PAGASA, . Probable maximum values for 10-minute, 20-minute, 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 3-hour, 6-hour, 12-hour and 24–hour rainfall were prepared for 2, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 50 and 100–year return periods. Collected RIDF is shown in Table 3.2.
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Table 3.2 Rainfall Intensity-Duration Frequency Analysis Data of Synoptic Stations Station Name Rainfall Intensity (Return Period = 100 years) Number of Record 6 hours 12 hours 24 hours (years) Port Area 293.4 mm 363.9 mm 415.6 mm 55 Tayabas 368.8 mm 426.2 mm 508.3 mm 41 Sangley Point 259.9 mm 322.8 mm 377.6 mm 19 NAIA 371.7 mm 460.9 mm 529.1 mm 43 Science Garden 370.2 mm 434.4 mm 481.2 mm 41 Ambulong 311.8 mm 376.6 mm 434.3 mm 54 Infanta 321.5 mm 380.9 mm 404.4 mm 40 NAS UPLB 274.1 mm 334.7 mm 383.5 mm 17 Source: PAGASA
(5) Collection of Hourly Water Level Data Hourly water level data of the Pasig-Marikina River basin was collected from EFCOS. The list of collected data is shown in Annex T 3.4. (6) Collection of Topographic Data Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data and topographic maps were collected in the previous water balance study. The map index of the collected topographic maps is shown in Annex F 3.1. Shuttle Radar Topography Mission SRTM was conducted by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) of the United States of America to obtain elevation data on a near-global scale in 2000. Currently, the available data of the Philippines is SRTM3 version 2, which is a digital elevation model (DEM) with a 3 arc-second resolution (or approximately 90 m). Topographic Map in the Scale of 1:50,000 Three types of topographic maps were collected from the National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA). The S711 topographic maps were originally published by the US Army Service, which were compiled from aerial photographs taken in 1947-1953. The S701 topographic maps were produced using the 1979 aerial photographs. The NTMS will eventually replace the S711 and S701 maps. (7) Typhoon Data To estimate the causes of flood events, typhoon data were collected from three available sources. Wikipedia The list of pacific typhoon seasons has been prepared from 1939 to the present. Example of list is shown in Annex F 3.2. Digital Typhoon prepared by National Institute of Informatics of Japan (NII) Typhoon data recorded by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) are archived in a digital database. Satellite images are available from 1978 to the present. Typhoon tracks in 6-hour 3 - 3 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin interval are available from 1951 to the present, which includes date, time, longitude, latitude, barometric pressure, wind speed, and classification. Example of data is shown in Annex F 3.2. PAGASA The Climatological and Agrometeorological Division of PAGASA also archives typhoon records including date, time, longitude, latitude, barometric pressure, and wind speed in 6-hour intervals. (8) Records of Extreme Events To identify representative storm events in the Pasig-Marikina River basin, the records of extreme events were collected from various sources. Flood Damage Flood damage data from 1993 to 2009 were collected from previous reports as shown in Annex T 3.5 and T 3.6. Annual Maximum Water Level Annual maximum water level at Sto. Niño Water Level Gauging Station was collected from the report of the World Bank Study as shown in Annex T 3.7. Summary Report of Flood Event Summary reports of flood events were collected from the office of EFCOS. In the reports, rainfall intensity, water level, and gate operation records were summarized, as shown in Annex F 3.3. The list of collected reports is shown in Table 3.3. Table 3.3 List of Flood Event Summary Reports No. Name of Report 1 Typhoon “Ambo”, June 1-2, 2012 2 Typhoon “Butchoy”, June 17-18, 2012 3 Tropical Storm “Dindo”, June 25-27, 2012 4 Typhoon “Enteng”, July 17-19, 2012 5 Tropical Depression “Ferdie”, July 21-23, 2012 6 Typhoon “Gener”, July 28-August 2, 2012 7 Monsoon Rains “Habagat”, August 4-9, 2012 8 Typhoon “Helen”, August 12-16, 2012 9 Typhoon “Igme”, August 19-25, 2012 10 Typhoon “Julian”, August 23-26, 2012 Source: EFCOS
3.2.2 Data Arrangement and Quality Check (1) Status of Rainfall Data The starting year of records and number of records in each year were examined for all collected rainfall data. The status of rainfall data is shown in Annex T 3.8. Considering the number of available data and location of gauging stations, 20 of the 38 stations were selected for the analysis.
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The locations of rainfall gauges are as shown in Annex F 3.4. (2) Extraction of Heavy Rainfall Events Heavy rainfall events were extracted from hourly rainfall and water level data. Hourly rainfall and water level data were used for the analysis of design rainfall duration, flood concentration time, and design rainfall pattern. Heavy rainfall events were extracted using three criteria: - All seven EFCOS hourly rainfall stations were selected for the analysis. Daily rainfall depth was calculated as the sum of hourly rainfall from 8:00 am to 8:00 am next day. From arithmetic mean of daily rainfall depth, annual maximum to the 5th maximum daily rainfall data were extracted. - From the arithmetic mean of all seven EFCOS hourly rainfall stations, the annual maximum to the 5th maximum hourly rainfall data were extracted. - From the hourly water level data at Sto. Niño station, the annual maximum to the 5th maximum daily water level data were extracted. The extracted events are shown in Annex T 3.9. The abovementioned extracted data were checked using three methods and criterion: - Comparison of hydrograph and hyetograph, - Comparison of each hourly rainfall station, and - Less than 500 mm in daily rainfall depth. The results of data quality check are shown in Annex T 3.10. According to the EFCOS office, part of the hourly rainfall and water level data were manually entered to spreadsheets. Therefore, some typographical errors were found in the data. The characteristics of extracted rainfall events are shown in Annex T 3.11. 3.3 Fundamental Items of the Flood Control Plan 3.3.1 Setting of Design Control Points The design control points should be chosen to have sufficient available hydrological data and serve as locations for hydrological and hydraulic analyses. Moreover, the control points should be closely related to the overall plan. The design control point of the Pasig-Marikina River was set at Sto. Niño, considering the following conditions: - The downstream of Sto. Niño is densely-populated where the capital of the country is located, which should be protected from floods. - Water level gauging at Sto. Niño started in 1958 and is presently operated by EFCOS. In the JICA Preparatory Study (III) and World Bank Study, Sto. Niño was also set as the design control point.
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The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
3.3.2 Basin Boundary The basin boundary of the Pasig-Marikina River is shown in Figure 3.1. The upstream area of Sto. Niño is 517.3 km2, while the upstream area of the confluence of the Pasig River and the San Juan River is 642.3 km2.
[Legend] Elevation [m] Basin Boundary (SRTM) River Lake
Pasig-Marikina River Basin
St. Nino San Juan River Marikina River
Rosario Weir Pasig River
Mangahan Floodway NHCS
Napindan Channel
Lake Luguna Basin
Source: Prepared by the Study Team Figure 3.1 Basin Boundary of the Pasig-Marikina River 3.4 Setting of Design Rainfall Duration In determining the duration of the subject rainfall, it is necessary to consider the size of the river basin, properties of rainfall, pattern of flood runoff, type of project facility, any difficulties in accessing past data, etc. 3.4.1 Flood Concentration Time The flood concentration time was estimated using two methods: the observed data and the empirical formula methods.
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The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
(1) Observed Data Method In the concept of the rational method, flood concentration time can be determined as follows: Tc = 2 * Tl where, Tc : flood concentration time Tl : time lag (difference between runoff peak time and rainfall peak time) Storm events (maximum ten events) were extracted from the EFCOS water level data to determine flood concentration time. Rainfall and water level charts are shown in Annex F 3.5. The arithmetic mean of the hourly rainfall records from five EFCOS stations, which are located in the upstream area of Sto. Niño, is also shown in the charts. EFCOS rainfall data during the August 3, 1999 flood was not available; therefore, the data from PRBFFWC was applied for this event. Flood concentration time was calculated as shown in Table 3.4. Storms showing sharp peak in the hyetograph were selected for the analysis. Table 3.4 Flood Concentration Time with Observed Data Method No Date Peak Water Level Peak Rainfall Time Lag Selection Tc Time WL [m] Time Depth [mm] [hr] [hr] 1 2009.9.25 – 9.27 09/26 18:00 22.16 09/26 11:00 70 7 2 2012.8.3 – 8.9 08/09 06:00 20.42 08/09 00:00 21 6 08/07 15:00 20.33 08/07 06:00 34 9 3 2011.9.25 – 9.29 09/27 18:00 19.13 09/26 17:00 12 25 4 2004.11.28 – 11.30 11/30 02:00 19.08 11/29 21:00 46 5 Selected 10 5 2000.11.1 – 11.3 11/03 13:00 19.02 11/03 08:00 47 5 Selected 10 6 1998.10.21 – 10.24 10/23 21:00 18.41 10/23 14:00 18 7 10/23 08:00 18.06 10/22 18:00 30 14 7 1995.9.29 – 10.1 10/01 10:00 18.40 10/01 03:00 35 7 Selected 14 8 1999.7.31 – 8.4 08/03 11:00 18.30 08/03 12:00 30 -1 9 2011.6.22 – 6.25 06/25 03:00 18.28 06/24 20:00 20 7 10 2000.7.2 – 7.9 07/06 02:00 18.10 07/05 20:00 20 6 07/08 04:00 17.87 07/07 21:00 24 7 Average 11 Source: Prepared by the Study Team As shown in Table 3.4, three floods were selected. The average flood concentration time was calculated to be 11 hours. (2) Empirical Formula Method In Kraven’s formula, the time of concentration is expressed as follows: Tc = inlet time + traveling time Typical value of inlet time is 30 minutes for a 2 km2 inlet area. Traveling time is expressed as follows: Traveling time [hr] = L / W / 3,600 where, 3 - 7 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
L : length of river channel from the downstream end of inlet area to the design control point [m] W : velocity of flood [m/s] Velocity can be determined using the equation below and the conditions as shown in Table 3.5. I = H / L where, I : gradient H : difference between the elevation of downstream end of inlet area and the elevation of design control point [m] Table 3.5 Velocity of Flood (W) I more than 1/100 1/100 – 1/200 less than 1/200 W 3.5 m/s 3.0 m/s 2.1 m/s Source: Technical Criteria for River Works, the Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism The river channel of the Pasig-Marikina River and the inlet area are shown in Annex F 3.6. The longitudinal profile of the Pasig-Marikina River was determined using SRTM, and is shown in Figure 3.2.
800 700
600 Section (A) 500 400 300 Section (B) Elevation [m] 200 100 Section (C) 0 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Distance [m]
Source: Prepared by the Study Team Figure 3.2 Longitudinal Profile of the Pasig-Marikina River Traveling time was calculated as shown in Table 3.6. Table 3.6 Traveling Time I Velocity [m/s] L [m] Time [hr] Section (A) 15 3.5 5300 0.4 Section (B) 102 3.0 31200 2.9 Section (C) 252 2.1 21200 2.8 Total 6.1 Source: Technical Criteria for River Works, the Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Flood concentration time using Kraven’s equation was determined to be seven hours as shown below: Tc = 6.1 + 0.5 = 6.6 ≈ 7
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The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
(3) Determination of Flood Concentration Time As described above, the time of concentration was analyzed using two methods. The time of concentration was estimated at 11 hours using the observed data method, while Tc was estimated at 7 hours with the empirical formula. The empirical formula is applied only for small basins. In the case of the Pasig-Marikina River basin, the observed data method is more appropriate than the empirical formula. Hence, flood concentration time of the Pasig-Marikina River is 11 hours. 3.4.2 Observed Rainfall Duration Stormy rainfall events are shown in Annex T 3.9. The duration of each event was checked in this chapter. The threshold of no rainfall is as follows: - Rainfall with less than 1 mm depth lasts equal or more than 6 hours. - Rainfall with less than 5 mm depth lasts equal or more than 6 hours. Rainfall events with depths equal or more than 100 mm were extracted. The histogram of rainfall duration is shown in Figure 3.3.
>=1mm Duration Number Accumulative % Histogram 1-12 2 5% 20 100% 13-24 5 16% 15 75% 25-36 11 41% 10 50% Samples
37-48 7 57% of 49-60 6 70% 5 25% 61-72 5 82% 0 0% 73-84 5 93% Number Number 85-96 2 98% over 96 1 100% Duration [hr] Accumulative %
>=5mm Duration Number Accumulative % Histogram 1-12 19 43% 20 100% 13-24 15 77% 15 75% 25-36 7 93% 10 50% Samples
37-48 2 98% of 49-60 0 98% 5 25% 61-72 1 100% 0 0%
73-84 0 100% Number Number 85-96 0 100% over 96 0 100% Duration [hr] Accumulative % Source: Prepared by the Study Team Figure 3.3 Histogram of Duration for Heavy Rainfall Events with Equal or More than 100 mm Total Rainfall Depth (Upper: threshold = 1 mm, Lower: threshold = 5 mm) In case of a 1 mm threshold, most events lasted 25-36 hours. In case of a 5 mm threshold, as high intensity rainfall, most events lasted 1-12 hours.
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3.4.3 Correlation of Observed Rainfall and Water Level Annual maximum rainfall events and 15 recorded maximum water level were extracted from EFCOS’s hourly rainfall and water level data for the period of 1994 –2012. The correlation of rainfall and water level were analyzed, and the results are as shown in Figure 3.4 and Annex T 3.12.
1 Day Rainfall 2 Day Rainfall 24.00 24.00
22.00 22.00
20.00 20.00
18.00 18.00
16.00 16.00 Water Level [m] Water Level [m] Level Water
14.00 Annual Maximum Rain 14.00 Annual Maximum Rain Max Water Level Max Water Level 12.00 12.00 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0 Basin Mean Rainfall [mm] Basin Mean Rainf all [mm] Source: Prepared by the Study Team Figure 3.4 Correlations of Rainfall Depth and Water Level (Left: 1-day rainfall, Right: 2-day rainfall) The coefficient of correlation between the 1-day rainfall depth and peak water level is 0.78, and the coefficient between a 2-day rainfall depth and peak water level is 0.57. Besides, the scatter plots in Figure 3.4 shows the higher correlation of the 1-day rainfall and water level. The significant correlation may be attributable to a short flood concentration time, short rainfall duration and high rainfall intensity. One- or two-day rainfall depths of the recorded maximum up to the 15th maximum water level events are shown in Table 3.7. In some cases, ranks of rainfall and water level are reversed; however, one-day rainfall depths show better results than two day rainfall depths. Table 3.7 Ranking of Water Level and Rainfall Depth Water Level 1 Day Rain 2 Day Rain Rank Sto. Nino Date BMR Date BMR Time WL [m] From To 1 2009/09/26 18:00 22.16 2009/9/26 290.8 2009/9/25 2009/9/26 415.3 2 2012/08/09 06:00 20.42 2012/8/8 181.3 2012/8/7 2012/8/8 570.0 3 2011/09/27 18:00 19.13 2011/9/27 141.3 2011/9/26 2011/9/27 242.8 4 2004/11/30 02:00 19.08 2004/11/29 190.2 2004/11/28 2004/11/29 191.4 5 2000/11/03 13:00 19.02 2000/11/2 149.0 2000/11/2 2000/11/3 186.5 6 1998/10/23 21:00 18.41 1998/10/23 124.0 1998/10/22 1998/10/23 358.0 7 1995/10/01 10:00 18.40 1995/9/30 124.0 1995/9/29 1995/9/30 134.1 8 1999/08/03 11:00 18.30 1999/8/2 1999/8/1 1999/8/2 9 2011/06/25 03:00 18.28 2011/6/24 152.0 2011/6/23 2011/6/24 267.8 10 2000/07/06 02:00 18.10 2000/7/5 153.0 2000/7/4 2000/7/5 245.5 11 2004/08/25 14:00 18.02 2004/8/24 138.0 2004/8/24 2004/8/25 274.4 12 2000/10/29 07:00 17.95 2000/10/28 142.0 2000/10/27 2000/10/28 178.0 13 2002/07/08 00:00 17.94 2002/7/7 156.5 2002/7/6 2002/7/7 301.5 14 2003/05/29 00:00 17.76 2003/5/28 127.8 2003/5/27 2003/5/28 317.2 15 2002/07/13 04:00 17.74 2002/7/12 126.5 2002/7/11 2002/7/12 144.5 Note: Cells with inverse rank are colored as orange. Source: Prepared by the Study Team 3 - 10 Final Report
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3.4.4 Design Flood Duration After 1994, hourly rainfall has been recorded by EFCOS; however, the available period of records is relatively short to be used for frequency analysis. Daily rainfall depth observed by PAGASA is necessary to be used for the analysis. Therefore, the design flood duration should be in a daily interval. In the JICA Preparatory Study (III), the design flood duration is for two days. The reason why a 2-day rainfall was employed is because that a 1-day rainfall record could not cover the whole rainfall duration in some events. However, as one of the findings of the Study, the 1-day rainfall depth is closely correlated to water level. The coverage of recorded duration has relatively small problems, and the correlation of rainfall depth and water level is more important. Appropriate design rainfall duration of the Pasig-Marikina River should be for 1-day rainfall considering the available rainfall records and the correlation to peak water level. 3.5 Estimation of Basin Mean Rainfall Rainfall observation in and around the Pasig-Marikina River basin started at the Port Area Rainfall Gauging Station. Presently, the hourly rainfall are being observed and recorded by EFCOS. For the estimation of basin mean rainfall, appropriated methods were employed considering that the available numbers of gauging stations are different in each period. (1) From 1994 to 2012 In the period of 1994-2012, hourly rainfall records gathered by EFCOS are available. There are five EFCOS hourly rainfall gauging stations and two PAGASA daily rainfall gauging stations. The PAGASA Boso-Boso station is adjacent to the EFCOS Boso-Boso station. The period of observation of the PAGASA Boso-Boso station can be covered by EFCOS Boso-Boso station. With that in mind, PAGASA Boso-Boso station was excluded from the analysis. Therefore, only six stations were used in the analysis. Rainfall records up to September 2012 were collected. In 2012, there was no stormy rainfall event from October to December; therefore, 2012 records were used for the analysis. For the selection of basin mean rainfall analysis method, the arithmetic mean and the Thiessen methods were compared. Dates of the annual maximum rainfall were extracted with the arithmetic mean method. Of the extracted date, another basin mean rainfall was estimated with the Thiessen method. Thiessen Polygons are shown in Annex F 3.7, and the estimation of basin mean rainfall is shown in Annex T 3.13. Scatted plots containing the basin mean rainfall from the results of the arithmetic mean and the Thiessen methods are shown in Figure 3.5.
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1 Day Rainfall 2 Day Rainfall 600.0 600.0
500.0 500.0
400.0 400.0
300.0 300.0
200.0 200.0 Thiessen [mm] Thiessen [mm]
100.0 100.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0 Arithmetic Mean [mm] Arithmetic Mean [mm] Source: Prepared by the Study Team Figure 3.5 Basin Mean Rainfall with Using Arithmetic Mean and Thiessen Method (Left: 1-day rainfall, Right: 2-day rainfall) There is no significant difference between basin mean rainfalls resulted from the arithmetic mean and the Thiessen methods. The coefficient of correlation for 1-day rainfall is 0.97 while that for 2-day rainfall is 0.99. Simpler methods may be appropriate because there is no significant difference between the two methods. The arithmetic mean method was selected for estimating the basin mean rainfall. (2) From 1978 to 1993, 1999 There were two PAGASA daily rainfall gauging stations in the upstream basin of Sto. Niño for the periods of 1978-1993, and 1999. The date of the annual maximum rainfall event was extracted using the arithmetic mean of two stations. If records of both stations were available, the arithmetic mean method was employed for estimating the basin mean rainfall. If only one station had available records, the IDW method was employed for rainfall gauging stations out of the basin. Isohyetal maps are shown in Annex F 3.8. The estimated basin mean rainfall is shown in Annex T 3.14. (3) From 1949 to 1977, 2010 There is no available rainfall gauging station in the upstream basin of Sto. Niño for the period of 1949-1977, 2010. Therefore, regressions for basin mean rainfall depths and rainfall depths of the stations out of the basin were employed. Linear regressions were employed for the analysis, from the stations outside the basin to the arithmetic mean of seven stations inside the basin for the period of 1949-2012. The results of the analyses are shown in Annex T 3.15 and Annex F 3.9. Among available stations for the period of 1949-1977, 2010, the stations in the PAGASA Science Garden, Port Area, and NAIA have relatively good correlation with the arithmetic mean of the seven stations. Correlation coefficients for the three stations are as follows: - Science Garden: 0.76, - Port Area: 0.70, and - NAIA: 0.62. 3 - 12 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Therefore, the basin mean rainfall depth was estimated using linear regression from the three selected stations to the arithmetic mean of seven stations, in the order of the Science Garden station, the Port Area station and the NAIA station. The result is shown in Annex T 3.16. (4) Basin Mean Rainfall Annual maximum basin mean rainfall depth estimated in Sections (1) – (3) is shown in Annex T 3.17. 3.6 Collation of Statistical Samples 3.6.1 Homogeneity of Population Planning for flood mitigation measures adopts rainfall with relevant occurrence probability for a design stormy rainfall. This Study concluded to adopt a daily rainfall for the design rainfall as discussed in Section 3.4. The occurrence probability analysis assumed that an annual maximum daily rainfall is a sample taken from the population of stormy rainfalls to estimate the occurrence probability of a stormy rainfall. Stormy rainfalls have occurred in the Pasig-Marikaina River basin, that were caused by several natural phenomenon like tropical depressions (typhoons), monsoons and others. Accordingly, it is often that the annual maxima are not the samples taken from a population. The estimation of the occurrence probability will involve certain errors if the estimation assumes that the annual maxima are the samples taken from a population. Along this line, it is necessary to confirm the uniformity of the population prior to the estimation of occurrence probability. The occurrence probabilities are to be estimated for each population if determined to be not uniform. In case of rainfall, there are two conceivable issues that define a population. One of these issues is the occurrence of natural weather phenomena such as typhoons and monsoons. The other is the variation of rainfall intensity caused by the influence of climate change due to lapses in time. A difference caused by climate change is insignificant and will be ignored if the period of sampling is not long. Most of the climate change analysis focuses on the differences in mean of 20 years. Accordingly, climate change analysis cannot detect the difference in population if the sampling period is within 40 years. The annual maxima in 40 years could be divided into two groups along the time of sampling, particularly, the first 20 years and the last 20 years. The difference between these two groups was assumed to be insignificant because the difference is not attributable to the difference in populations but the difference by chance. The estimated average basin rainfalls from 1978 to 2012 have rather high accuracy because records are available at several rainfall gauging stations. The uniformity of population was examined, availing the annual maxima basin mean daily rainfall in the period. The examination assumed that climate change in the period has not affected the uniformity of population. Subsequently, the differences in the populations were assessed, focusing on the causes of rainfall to estimate the occurrence probabilities. 3.6.2 Annual Maxima of Basin Mean Daily Rainfall Table 3.8 presents the annual maxima of the basin mean daily rainfall estimated for the upstream catchment of the Sto. Niño Rainfall Gauging Station.
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Arithmetic mean of the daily rainfall recorded at Table 3.8 Annual Maximum gauging stations in the basin provided most of the Basin Mean Daily Rainfall basin mean daily rainfall. The former section [mm] discussed the applicability of arithmetic mean. Year Date Depth Only the Boso-Boso Gauging Station recorded 1978 26-Oct 200.8 basin daily rainfall in 1993. The basin mean was 1979 15-Aug 82.5 estimated by IDW that was developed based on 1980 5-Nov 86.0 1981 13-Jun 83.0 the recorded daily rainfall at gauging stations 1982 2-Jul 81.0 nearby but outside of the basin. The estimation 1983 12-Aug 77.6 method for 1999 is the same as that in 1993. 1984 21-Oct 83.7 The recorded data in the basin is not available in 1985 18-Oct 209.7 2010. Records outside the basin are also limited 1986 9-Jul 171.9 1987 18-Aug 96.6 in the same year. Rainfall records at the Science 1988 24-Oct 236.7 Garden Gauging Station are available, although 1989 11-Sep 139.9 the station is outside the basin. Statistical analysis 1990 23-Aug 139.9 indicates that the records of the gauging station 1991 14-Jun 128.3 could represent the basin mean by applying a 1992 20-Aug 116.3 regression index of 0.6. The gauging station 1993 4-Oct 105.1 recorded the annual maximum of 122 mm on 1994 22-Jun 92.1 August 5, 2010. The estimated annual maximum 1995 30-Sep 124.0 of the basin mean daily rainfall is 73.2 mm. 1996 30-Oct 120.5 1997 18-Aug 170.0 3.6.3 The Causes of the Annual Maximum 1998 22-Oct 234.0 Daily Rainfall 1999 1-Aug 218.3 2000 7-Jul 178.0 There are several phenomena such as typhoons, 2001 17-Aug 127.5 monsoons, and weather fronts, including ITCZ 2002 7-Jul 156.5 that have caused storms in the Pasig- Marikina 2003 27-May 189.4 River basin. Monsoons and weather fronts tend to 2004 29-Nov 190.2 occur simultaneously. It is difficult to segregate 2005 15-Sep 111.0 rainfall caused by monsoon from rainfall caused 2006 23-Jul 109.8 by a weather front. Further collection of maps 2007 7-Aug 126.6 showing the locations of past fronts were 2008 20-Aug 85.8 impossible. Under such circumstances, two 2009 26-Sep 290.8 causes were considered in this study, these are; 1) 2010 5-Aug 73.2 2011 24-Jun 152.0 typhoons and tropical depressions, and 2) 2012 7-Aug 271.7 monsoons and others. Source: Prepared by the Study Team The satellite images of clouds caused by typhoons are made available by the Digital Typhoon of NII. Based on the image on the date when the annual maximum basin mean rainfall occurred, the causes of the rainfall were assumed. The assumed cause is typhoon if a typhoon cloud covers the basin on that day. If not, the assumed cause is monsoon and others. Table 3.9 lists the annual maximum basin mean daily rainfalls classified by such manner.
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Table 3.9 Annual Maximum Basin Mean Daily Rainfall by Different Causes (Left: Monsoon and Others, Right: Tropical Depressions) (unit: mm)
Year Date Depth Cause Year Date Depth Cause Name 1979 15-Aug 82.5 M 1978 26-Oct 200.8 T Rita 1981 13-Jun 83.0 M 1980 5-Nov 86.0 T Betty 1982 2-Jul 81.0 M 1985 18-Oct 209.7 T Dot 1983 12-Aug 77.6 M 1986 9-Jul 171.9 T Peggy 1984 21-Oct 83.7 M 1987 18-Aug 96.6 T Cary 1990 23-Aug 139.9 M 1988 24-Oct 236.7 T Ruby 1992 20-Aug 116.3 M 1989 11-Sep 139.9 T Sarah 1993 4-Oct 73.8 M 1991 14-Jun 128.3 T Yunya 1994 22-Jun 92.1 M 1995 30-Sep 124.0 T Sibyl 1996 30-Oct 120.5 M 1998 22-Oct 234.0 T Babs 1997 18-Aug 170.0 M 2000 7-Jul 178.0 T Kai-Tak 1999 1-Aug 218.3 M 2003 27-May 189.4 T Linfa 2001 17-Aug 127.5 M 2004 29-Nov 190.2 T TD 2002 7-Jul 156.5 M 2006 23-Jul 109.8 T Kaemi 2005 15-Sep 111.0 M 2008 20-Aug 85.8 T Nuri 2007 7-Aug 126.6 M 2009 26-Sep 290.8 T Ketsana 2010 5-Aug 73.2 M 2011 24-Jun 152.0 T Meari 2012 7-Aug 271.7 M Mean 166.1 Mean 122.5 STDV 58.4 STDV 54.0 Note M: Monsoon, T: Typhoon Source: Prepared by the Study Team The number of the annual maxima caused by monsoon rains is 18 out of 35 for the period between 1978 to 2012. It should be noted that the mean of the annual maxima caused by typhoons is 166.1 mm, which is larger than the annual maxima of monsoons at 122.5 mm. Furthermore, the variability of the annual maxima caused by typhoons is larger than that caused by monsoons. 3.6.4 Test of the Difference in Populations The 18 annual maxima basin mean daily rainfall samples were taken from monsoonal population. Meanwhile, the remaining 17 annual maxima are samples taken from typhoon population. The most likely estimates of mean and standard deviation of each population are given in Table 3.10. Table 3.10 Estimated Parameters of Populations Parameter Monsoonal Population Typhoon Population Mean (mm) 122.5 166.1 Standard Deviation (mm) 54.0 58.4 Numbers of Sample 18 17 Source: Prepared by the Study Team A significant difference in the means or standard deviations indicates distinction between populations. Mean and standard deviation are variables that depend on the samples. However, the differences in mean and standard deviation are insignificant if the samples are taken from a uniform population. The populations are not uniform if the difference in means or standard
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The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin deviations is significant. The t-test was adopted as a measure for the significance test of means. The difference is insignificant and both populations are considered to be homogenous, if the following inequality is true: |m1 – m2| < t( f, α) s / √n (1) On the contrary, the difference is significant, hence, the two populations are considered to be different if the following inequality is true: |m1 – m2| ≥ t( f, α) s / √n (2) Where m1 : mean of annual maximum caused by monsoon m2 : mean of annual maximum caused by tropical depression f : freedom (n-1) α : confidence ( 0.05~0.01) of judgment s : standard deviation of the population by monsoon to be estimated by the STDV of the sample n : Numbers of samples (n=18) The t-table provides the function t( f, α) for several confidence or reliability for f = 17 as follows: α = 0.1 t( f, α) = 1.740 0.05 t( f, α) = 2.110 0.01 t( f, α) = 2.898 Consequently, the right side of the inequality for equation (2) is as follows: α = 0.1 t( f, α) s / √n = 22.22 0.05 t( f, α) s / √n = 26.98 0.01 t( f, α) s / √n = 37.18 The left side of the inequality is 43.6. Eventually, equation (2) will be effective with a confidence of 99%. The difference between the populations is highly significant. Therefore, the occurrence probability should be estimated separately for the annual maximum series caused by tropical depressions and the series caused by monsoons. 3.7 Annual Maximum Basin Mean Rainfall Depth and Probable Rainfall Depth Considering Type of Weather Disturbance In Section 3.6, the difference of population of rainfall with “tropical depression” and with “monsoon and others” in the Pasig-Marikina River basin was identified as statistically significant. Therefore, annual maximum rainfall depths from “tropical depression” and from “monsoon and others” were estimated. Probable rainfall depths were estimated as well. 3.7.1 Separation of Samples Considering Type of Weather Disturbance (1) Estimation of Type of Weather Disturbance The types of weather disturbance were estimated based on two data sources as follows:
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- National Institute of Informatics of Japan (Digital Typhoon), and - Wikipedia Firstly, the satellite images from the Digital Typhoon of NII after 1978 on stormy rainfall events in the Pasig-Marikina River basin and typhoon tracks were checked. Examples of satellite images and typhoon tracks are shown in Annex F 3.10. The study team visually checked whether the basin is under the extent of the impacts of tropical depressions. Secondly, events which PAGASA determined as tropical depressions were added using the online website Wikipedia, because only events which JMA determined as Typhoon are archived in the Digital Typhoon. The result is shown in Annex T 3.18. (2) Estimation of Annual Maximum Basin Mean Rainfall Depth Annual maximum basin mean rainfall depths of the following cases were estimated, similar to Section 3.5: - Case 1: Annual maximum basin mean for 1-day rainfall depth with tropical depression; - Case 2: Annual maximum basin mean for 1-day rainfall depth with monsoon and others; - Case 3: Annual maximum basin mean for 1-day rainfall depth with all types of weather disturbance (same as Section 3.5); and - Case 4: Annual maximum basin mean for 2-day rainfall depth with all types of weather disturbance (same as Section 3.5) The result is shown in Annex T 3.19. 3.7.2 Probable Rainfall Depth (1) Method Probable rainfall depth was studied with the following procedures using annual maximum rainfall depth estimated in Section 3.7.1. The software Hydrological Statistics Utility version 1.5, which was developed by the Japan Institute of Construction Engineering, was employed for frequency analysis. - Probable rainfall depth was estimated with 13 models as shown in Table 3.11. - Standardized least squares criterion (SLSC) was employed in examining the goodness of fit, with a threshold of “SLSC<=0.04”. Three models with a background in extreme value theory were given priority, namely; Gumbel model, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model, and Square-root exponential type (Sqrt-Et) model. If none of the three models satisfied the threshold, the remaining seven models were employed. - Model stability examination was applied on models which passed the examination on the goodness of fit. The method of examination used for model stability was the Jackknife method. This method was used as one of the resampling methods. The model with the least estimated error was selected for the design. - An unbiased estimator by the Jackknife method was employed for the design.
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Table 3.11 Frequency Models to be Analyzed Name of Model Abbreviation Exponential Distribution Exp Gumbel Distribution Gumbel Generalized Extreme Value Distribution GEV Square-Root Exponential Type Distribution Sqrt-Et Log Pearson type III Distribution (Real Number Calculations) LP3Rs Log Pearson type III Distribution (Logarithmic Calculations) LogP3 Iwai Method Iwai Ishihara-Takase Method IshiTaka Log normal Distribution 3 Population Quantile Method LN3Q Log normal Distribution 3 Population (Slade II) LN3PM Log normal Distribution 2 Population (Slade I, L Moment) LN2LM Log normal Distribution 2 Population (Slade I, Product Moment) LN2PM Log normal Distribution 4 Population (Slade IV, Product Moment) LN4PM Source: Japan Institute of Construction Engineering SLSC SLSC is the criterion in examining the goodness of fit between model and samples. The criterion was proposed by Professor Takara1. Jackknife Method The accuracy in estimating the probability distribution should be increasingly better as more and more samples are becoming available. However, in the case of a catastrophic event, which is larger than recorded maximum event, the estimation of the probability distribution becomes unstable in the extent of small frequency. In flood control planning, stability is very important. Stable probability models should be employed for the analysis. In the Jackknife method2, several datasets are produced from the original dataset. The stability is examined with probability distributions of several generated datasets. In other words, a dataset having N-1 data except for data i among N data is generated for each data i. A total of N datasets are then generated. With N datasets, unbiased value of probable rainfall depth and estimated error are calculated. (2) Results Probable rainfall for a 1-day rainfall is shown in Table 3.12, Figure 3.6 and Figure 3.7. Besides, the probable rainfall for a 2-day rainfall is shown in Table 3.13 as reference. Details of probable rainfall are shown in Annex T 3.20 and Annex F 3.11. In Case 1, tropical depression type probable rainfall for a 100-year return period was 285.5 mm, which is similar to the probable rainfall of 286.5 mm estimated in the JICA Preparatory Study (III). In Case 2, monsoon type probable rainfall for a 100-year return period was 244.6 mm. Typhoon and monsoon events are independent of each other, and both events can happen.
1 Takara, K. and Takasao, T. (1988) Evaluation Criteria for Probability Distribution Models in Hydrologic Frequency Analysis. Preprint, Fifth IAHR International Symposium on Stochastic Hydraulics, University of Birmingham, UK, August 1988, Paper A5, 10 pp. 2 Efron, B. (1982) The Jackknife, the Bootstrap and other Resampling Plans. SIAM Monograph 38, Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Philadelphia, USA. 3 - 18 Final Report
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Therefore, typhoon or monsoon events should be employed for the flood control plan, whichever is greater. Several destructive typhoons such as Tropical Storm Ondoy brought catastrophic damages to the Pasig-Marikina River basin. Consequently, typhoon events should be given priority for flood control plan development. For all of these reasons, the design rainfall depth of the Pasig-Marikina River basin was determined at 285.5 mm for a typhoon type 1-day rainfall depth with a 100-year return period. Probable rainfall depth based on the type of typhoon was analyzed in the Study, which was similar to the probable rainfall depth in the existing JICA Preparatory Study (III). It was assessed that the existing probable rainfall was appropriate. In addition, probable rainfall for all types of weather disturbance was analyzed in Case 3. Probable rainfall for a 100-year return period is 303.6 mm, and the estimated error is 22.4 mm. With this case, the existing probable rainfall of 286.5 mm is also in the margin of error. Table 3.12 Summary of Probable Rainfall Depth (One Day Rainfall) Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 JICA, 2011 WB, 2012 Duration 1-day 1-day 1-day 1-day 1-day Meteorological Type T M All All All Model Gumbel Gumbel Gumbel Gumbel-Chow Gumbel Sample Number 58 61 63 94 35 1/30 Rainfall 232.4 mm 203.3 mm 251.2 mm 255.0 mm 268 mm (Estimate Error) 20.1 mm 16.3 mm 17.4 mm N/A N/A 1/100 Rainfall 285.5 mm 244.6 mm 303.6 mm 286.5 mm 3 344 mm (Estimate Error) 26.1 mm 21.2 mm 22.4 mm N/A N/A N/A: Not Available, T: Tropical depression, M: Monsoon and others Source: Prepared by the Study Team Table 3.13 Summary of Probable Rainfall Depth (Two-Day Rainfall) Case 4 JICA, 2011 WB, 2012 Duration 2-day 2-day 2-day Meteorological Type All All All Model Gumbel Gumbel-Chow Gumbel Sample Number 63 87 35 1/30 Rainfall 410.1 mm 392.3 mm 367 mm (Estimate Error) 31.3 mm N/A N/A 1/100 Rainfall 494.8 mm 445.8 mm 439 mm (Estimate Error) 40.9 mm N/A N/A Selection Not Selected N/A: Not Available Source: Prepared by the Study Team
3 377 mm (100-year probable rainfall at Port Area station) x 0.76 (adjustment factor) = 286.5 mm (100-year probable basin mean rainfall) 3 - 19 Final Report
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1 Day Rainfall Lognormal Probability Paper [Year] Meteorological Type Tropical Depression [%] Sample Type Annual Maximum Rainfall Case 1 Model Gumbel Disturbance: Tropical Depression Sample Number 58 Duration: 1 Day 1/2 100.4 Basin: Pasig-Marikina 1/3 123.8 Point: Sto. Nino 1/5 150.0 1/10 182.8 1/20 214.3 Probable 1/30 232.4 Rainfall 1/50 255.0 1/80 275.7 1/100 285.5 1/150 303.3 1/200 316.0 1/400 346.3 1/2 100.4 1/3 123.8 1/5 150.0 1/10 182.8 1/20 214.3 Jackknife 1/30 232.4 Unbiased 1/50 255.0 Estimator 1/80 275.7 1/100 285.5 1/150 303.3 1/200 316.0 1/400 346.3 1/2 6.6 1/3 8.6 1/5 11.2 1/10 14.7 1/20 18.1 Jackknife 1/30 20.1 Estimate 1/50 22.7 Error 1/80 25.0 1/100 26.1 1/150 28.1 1/200 29.6 1/400 33.0 SLSC 0.022 X-Cor 0.994 P-Cor 0.994
Source: Prepared by the Study Team Figure 3.6 Probable Rainfall (by Typhoon Type)
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1 Day Rainfall Lognormal Probability Paper [%] [Year] Meteorological Type Monsoon and Others Sample Type Annual Maximum Rainfall Case 2 Model Gumbel Disturbance: Monsoon Sample Number 61 Duration: 1 Day 1/2 100.8 Basin: Pasig-Marikina 1/3 119.0 Point: Sto. Nino 1/5 139.3 1/10 164.8 1/20 189.3 Probable 1/30 203.3 Rainfall 1/50 220.9 1/80 237.0 1/100 244.6 1/150 258.4 1/200 268.2 1/400 291.8 1/2 100.8 1/3 119.0 1/5 139.3 1/10 164.8 1/20 189.3 Jackknife 1/30 203.3 Unbiased 1/50 220.9 Estimator 1/80 237.0 1/100 244.6 1/150 258.4 1/200 268.2 1/400 291.8 1/2 5.0 1/3 6.7 1/5 8.9 1/10 11.8 1/20 14.7 Jackknife 1/30 16.3 Estimate 1/50 18.4 Error 1/80 20.3 1/100 21.2 1/150 22.9 1/200 24.1 1/400 26.9 SLSC 0.032 X-Cor 0.989 P-Cor 0.985
Source: Prepared by the Study Team Figure 3.7 Probable Rainfall ( by Monsoons and Other Types)
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3.8 Design Rainfall Patterns Temporal and spatial patterns of subject rainfalls were proposed as shown in Table 3.14. These patterns were determined by expanding the observed rainfall patterns or by using model patterns. Table 3.14 Temporal and Spatial Patterns Expansion of Observed Rainfall Pattern Model Hyetograph Temporal Expansion of Observed Rainfall Pattern Center Concentrated Type Model Hyetograph Distributions (Expansion of hyetograph determined in the JICA Preparatory Study III) Spatial Observed Rainfall Pattern by Thiessen Unique Distribution Distributions Method Source: Prepared by the Study Team The observed rainfall events for the expansion were selected from the annual maximum rainfall events and recorded maximum up to the 15th maximum water level event, as shown in Annex T 3.12. The top ten of these events were selected as shown in Table 3.15. Expansion ratio is also shown in Table 3.15. Hyetographs are shown in Figure 3.8. In Section 3.7, rainfall by typhoon type was determined as the design rainfall, so hyetographs by typhoon type were also selected. Spatial distributions of observed rainfall events were determined by Thiessen method. Thiessen coefficients are shown in Annex T 3.21. The sub-basin boundaries and location of hourly rainfall gauging stations are shown in Figure 3.9. The proposed temporal and spatial rainfall patterns will be examined in the next study phase using runoff model, and the design rainfall pattern will be determined. Table 3.15 Rainfall Events Used for Expansion Event Basin Mean Rainfall (1 Day) No. Date Probability Observed 1/100 Rainfall Ratio Selection Type Name (A) (B) (B/A) 1 2009/9/26 T Ondoy 1/110 290.8 mm 285.5 mm 0.982 Selected 2 2012/8/7 M - 1/200 271.7 mm 244.6 mm 0.900 Not Selected 3 1998/10/22 T Loleng 1/30 234.0 mm 285.5 mm 1.220 Selected 4 2004/11/29 T Winnie 1/10-1/20 190.2 mm 285.5 mm 1.501 Selected 5 2003/5/27 T Chedeng 1/10-1/20 189.4 mm 285.5 mm 1.507 Selected 6 2000/7/7 T Edeng 1/10 178.0 mm 285.5 mm 1.604 Selected 7 1997/8/18 M - 1/10 170.0 mm 244.6 mm 1.439 Not Selected 8 2002/7/7 M - 1/5-1/10 156.5 mm 244.6 mm 1.563 Not Selected 9 2011/6/24 T Falcon 1/5 152.0 mm 285.5 mm 1.878 Selected 10 2000/11/2 T Seniang 1/5 149.0 mm 285.5 mm 1.916 Selected T: Tropical depression, M: Monsoon and others Source: Prepared by the Study Team
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2009.9.26 90.0 Station Status Design Science Garden Out of Basin 60.0 Napindan No Data Observed Mt.Campana No Data 30.0 Aries Fully Av ailable Nangka Fully Av ailable
BosoBoso Fully Av ailable 0.0 Mt.Oro Fully Av ailable 09/25 08:00 09/26 08:00 09/27 08:00 09/28 08:00
2012.8.7 90.0 Station Status Not Selected Design Science Garden No Data 60.0 Napindan No Data Observed Mt.Campana No Data 30.0 Aries Fully Av ailable Nangka Partly Av ailable
BosoBoso Partly Av ailable 0.0 Mt.Oro Fully Av ailable 08/06 08:00 08/07 08:00 08/08 08:00 08/09 08:00
1998.10.22 90.0 Station Status Design Science Garden No Data 60.0 Napindan No Data Observed Mt.Campana No Data 30.0 Aries No Data Nangka No Data
BosoBoso Fully Av ailable 0.0 Mt.Oro Fully Av ailable 10/21 08:00 10/22 08:00 10/23 08:00 10/24 08:00
2004.11.29 90.0 Station Status Design Science Garden Out of Basin 60.0 Napindan Out of Basin Observed Mt.Campana Fully Av ailable 30.0 Aries Fully Av ailable Nangka Fully Av ailable
BosoBoso Fully Av ailable 0.0 Mt.Oro Fully Av ailable 11/28 08:00 11/29 08:00 11/30 08:00 12/01 08:00
2003.5.27 90.0 Station Status Design Science Garden Out of Basin 60.0 Napindan Out of Basin Observed Mt.Campana Fully Av ailable 30.0 Aries Fully Av ailable Nangka Fully Av ailable
BosoBoso Fully Av ailable 0.0 Mt.Oro Fully Av ailable 05/26 08:00 05/27 08:00 05/28 08:00 05/29 08:00
Source: Prepared by the Study Team Figure 3.8 Temporal Rainfall Patterns (1/3)
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2000.7.7 90.0 Station Status Design Science Garden No Data 60.0 Napindan No Data Observed Mt.Campana No Data 30.0 Aries No Data Nangka No Data
BosoBoso Fully Av ailable 0.0 Mt.Oro Fully Av ailable 07/06 08:00 07/07 08:00 07/08 08:00 07/09 08:00
1997.8.18 90.0 Station Status Not Selected Design Science Garden No Data 60.0 Napindan No Data Observed Mt.Campana No Data 30.0 Aries No Data Nangka No Data
BosoBoso Fully Av ailable 0.0 Mt.Oro Fully Av ailable 08/17 08:00 08/18 08:00 08/19 08:00 08/20 08:00
2002.7.7 90.0 Station Status Design Science Garden No Data 60.0 Not Selected Napindan No Data Observed Mt.Campana No Data 30.0 Aries No Data Nangka No Data
BosoBoso Fully Av ailable 0.0 Mt.Oro Fully Av ailable 07/06 08:00 07/07 08:00 07/08 08:00 07/09 08:00
2011.6.24 90.0 Station Status Design Science Garden No Data 60.0 Napindan No Data Observed Mt.Campana No Data 30.0 Aries Fully Av ailable Nangka Fully Av ailable
BosoBoso Fully Av ailable 0.0 Mt.Oro Fully Av ailable 06/23 08:00 06/24 08:00 06/25 08:00 06/26 08:00
2000.11.2 120.0 Station Status
90.0 Design Science Garden No Data Observed Napindan No Data 60.0 Mt.Campana No Data Aries No Data
30.0 Nangka No Data
BosoBoso Fully Av ailable 0.0 Mt.Oro Fully Av ailable 11/01 08:00 11/02 08:00 11/03 08:00 11/04 08:00
Source: Prepared by the Study Team Figure 3.8 Temporal Rainfall Patterns (2/3)
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Model 90.0
60.0 Design
30.0
0.0 0244872
Source: Prepared by the Study Team Figure 3.8 Temporal Rainfall Patterns (3/3)
Sub-Basin Area [km2] M-1 281.4 M-2 96.5 M-3 72.8 M-4 53.7 M-5 12.9 M-6 9.7 M-7 13.3 M-8 5.5 M-9 5.1 Pasig-Marikina River Basin S-1 21.9 S-2 10.0 S-3 2.2 S-4 10.0 S-5 8.3 S-6 14.4 S-7 6.0 S-8 12.4 S-9 3.8 S-10 2.4 Total 642.3
Lake Laguna Basin
Source: Prepared by the Study Team Figure 3.9 Sub-basin Boundaries in the Pasig-Marikina River Basin and Location of Hourly Rainfall Gauging Stations
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CHAPTER 4 CLIMATE CHANGE ANALYSIS
4.1 Projection of Rainfall by GCMs In the Water Balance Study, which is one of the components of the Study, climate change impacts on water resources for Metro Manila and its adjoining areas including the Pasig-Marikina River basin were examined. The projection was conducted under A1B scenario, which is the most popular greenhouse gas emission scenario. Appropriate GCMs for the study area were selected among 24 GCMs. The selected GCMs were as follows: - Csiro-mk3-0, - gfdl-cm2-0, - gfdl-cm2-1, - ingv-ecchm4, - ipsl-cm4, and - miroc3-2-medre. Bias correction and downscaling methods were applied on the GCMs outputs using the observed rainfall data around Metro Manila and its adjoining areas. Daily rainfall depth at the Port Area station was projected using GCM datasets. The periods for the projection were 1981 to 2000 and from 2046 to 2565. Annual maximum daily rainfall projections using GCMs at the Port Area station for the period 1981 to 2000 are shown in Table 4.1. The second column from the left shows the annual maximum daily rainfall records at the Port Area station. The rightmost column of the table shows the arithmetic mean of selected GCMs. Each GCM showed widely different annual maximum rainfalls. The correlation of the observed records and GCMs were obviously low. Table 4.1 also shows the average annual maximum rainfall every five years for the analysis of long-term trend. It can be observed that the five-year averages have an increasing-decreasing succession. However, rainfall values during the 1990s were greater than the values of the 1980s. The projection with gfdl-2cm-1 among six models showed slightly similar trend observations. The other five GSMs showed a decreasing trend, as rainfall values during the 1990s were smaller than values in the 1980s. Therefore, the ensemble mean of six GCMs also showed decreasing trend. Table 4.2 shows the annual maximum daily rainfall projections at the Port Area station for the period 2046 to 2065. Some of the projections with GCMs, such as ingv or ipsl, showed an increasing trend from 2046-2055 to 2056-2065. Other projections, such as gfdlcm2-1 or miroc, showed decreasing trend. The ten-year average of six GCMs ensemble mean decreased from 200.6 mm to 188.7 mm. On the other hand, the 20-year average ensemble mean of six GCMs since 1981 to 2000 was
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149.2 mm, and the 20-year average since 2046 to 2065 was 197.9 mm. The 20-year average observed rainfall data for the period 1981-2000 was 140.4 mm, although the projection was overestimated by approximately 10%. Adjusted 20-year average for 2046-2065 was 178.1 mm and the increasing range for 65 years was 37.7 mm. The increasing rate per year was estimated at 0.58 mm. Table 4.1 Annual Maximum Daily Rainfall Depth at the Port Area from 1981 to 2000 Year Recorded Csiro gfdl-cm20 gfdl-cm21 ingv miroc ipsl GCM mean 1981 67.2 165.6 136.8 65.3 144.7 255.6 229.6 166.3 1982 110.2 147.8 123.7 109.2 180 118.1 258 156.1 1983 70 132.3 132.4 120 109.4 171.9 176.7 140.5 1984 81.2 142.9 175.1 109 175.8 236.9 100.5 156.7 1985 252.8 284.5 278.3 257.1 225.3 146 127.7 219.8 Mean 116.3 174.6 169.3 132.1 167 185.7 178.5 167.9
1986 210.5 185.4 213 200.3 178.9 113.5 124.5 169.3 1987 88.7 114.5 120 149.6 144.1 178 258 160.7 1988 122.7 122.2 210.5 57.4 110.6 234.8 68.5 134 1989 127.5 159.1 108.7 253.9 108.7 141.1 191.5 160.5 1990 201.1 60.6 144 123.6 206.9 157.2 132.9 137.5 Mean 150.1 128.4 159.2 157 149.8 164.9 155.1 152.4
1991 174.8 146 121.5 125.3 73.9 193.1 130.5 131.7 1992 122.2 75.5 147.4 128 164.6 204.1 179.9 149.9 1993 83.4 172.4 184.6 226.9 109.5 164.7 109.1 161.2 1994 117.2 109.4 122.1 187.1 252.7 132.5 99.9 150.6 1995 135.4 103.1 177.1 67.1 160.3 158 107 128.8 Mean 126.6 121.3 150.5 146.9 152.2 170.5 125.3 144.5
1996 105.4 123.6 116.1 113 135.3 153.5 105.2 124.5 1997 241.5 75.5 105.8 126.2 86.4 124.7 107 104.3 1998 128.8 227.9 110.8 141.9 151.8 164.7 226.5 170.6 1999 190.4 75.2 50.6 234.2 211.8 140.6 52.4 127.5 2000 177.5 192.6 171.2 172.6 143.9 130 58.4 144.8 Mean 168.7 139 110.9 157.6 145.8 142.7 109.9 134.3 Source: Prepared by the Study Team Table 4.2 Projected Annual Maximum Daily Rainfall Depth at the Port Area for 2046 to 2065 Year csiro gfdlcm2-0 gfdlcm2-1 ingv miroc ipsl Mean
2046 102.4 110.7 260.1 194.8 271 265.7 200.8 2047 146.2 109.3 238.6 87.9 209 148.4 156.6 2048 309.7 165 185.1 152 81.2 179.6 178.8 2049 795.5 59.4 83.5 187 54.9 167.8 224.7 2050 310.6 113.6 187.5 171.9 132.4 111 171.2 Mean 332.9 111.6 191 158.7 149.7 174.5 186.4
2051 140.7 207.2 260.1 178.3 198.2 269.9 209.1 2052 738.6 230.3 199.3 136.2 67.5 154.8 254.5 2053 134.7 117.7 270 125.4 188.7 323.8 193.4 2054 245.6 370.7 195.9 230.7 121.6 81.8 207.7 2055 265.6 262.8 197.4 191.1 220.9 119.1 209.5 Mean 305 237.7 224.5 172.3 159.4 189.9 214.8
2056 164.9 235.4 45.3 87.8 216.9 196.6 157.8 2057 192.2 125.9 194.2 283.6 123 154.4 178.9 2058 173.6 275 291 190.3 71 250.9 208.6 2059 137.5 68.6 55.6 86.1 123.1 178.1 108.2 2060 559.4 121.8 161.2 142.1 142.9 171.5 216.5 Mean 245.5 165.3 149.5 158 135.4 190.3 174
2061 147.4 52.5 231.7 189.2 120.3 210.8 158.7 2062 197 107.9 178.5 314.3 350.2 348.3 249.4 2063 63.3 106.4 287.3 307.1 135.1 210.1 184.9 2064 795.5 106.8 260.3 107.2 122.9 250.8 273.9 2065 356.8 110.1 64.4 108.5 69.6 191.6 150.2 Mean 312 96.7 204.4 205.3 159.6 242.3 203.4 Source: Prepared by the Study Team 4 - 2 Final Report
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4.2 Trend of Observed Rainfall and Projection Annual maximum daily rainfall records at the Port Area station from 1903 were shown in the Table 4.3 5-Year Average of Annual Maximum Rainfalls [mm] JICA Preparatory Study (III). The collected data was then used to calculate the five-year average rainfall from 1906 to 2060. If one year out of the five-year record is missing, the missing data was filled with the average of the remaining four-year records. If more than two years rainfall data are missing, the missing data was filled with the five-year average of the preceding period. However, if the five-year average of the preceding period is still missing, the missing data was filled with the five-year average of the succeeding period. Time series of the five-year average annual maximum daily rainfall from 1906 to 2010 with above step, as well as the maximum daily rainfall prediction using six GCMs for the period 2046 to 2065 are shown in Table 4.3. Figure 4.1 shows the scatter plot of the time series with temporal axis. Using linear regression, the annual increment for the annual maximum average daily rainfall depth was determined as 0.22 mm per year. Source: Prepared by the Study Team
250.0 y = 0.22x - 268.58
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0 Plot Linear Regression 0.0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 Source: Prepared by the Study Team Figure 4.1 Scatter Plot of Five-Year Average Annual Maximum Rainfall at the Port Area
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4.3 Climate Change Impacts on Basin Mean Rainfall As described in Sections 4.1 and 4.2, the recent increment rate of the annual maximum rainfall at the Port Area rainfall gauging station for the period 1981 to 2065 was 0.58 mm per year. On the other hand, the long-term increment rate for the period 1906 to 2065 was 0.22 mm per year. The reason for this difference might be due to the acceleration of climate change and its impacts. The regression coefficient to estimate basin mean rainfall from point rainfall records at the Port Area station was 0.7. The increment rate for the basin mean rainfall was estimated at 0.15 mm and 0.41 mm.
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CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
Flood control planning, which includes runoff analysis and flood inundation analysis, will be conducted in continuation with this Study. The recommendations by the Study Team for the next stage study are as follows: i) There were several differences between the JICA Preparatory Study (III) and the World Bank Study. The most significant difference between the two studies is the estimated flood discharges at Sto. Niño gauging station. Both studies estimated discharges of annual maximum floods using annual maximum water levels for the period of 1958 to 2009. For example, the two studies estimated the peak discharge of the 1986 flood as shown in Table 5.1. The 1986 flood had the highest flood record before the event of the 2009 flood, when the water level gauge was broken. Table 5.1 Example of Estimated Flood Discharge at Sto. Niño Gauging Station JICA, 2011 WB, 2012Note Year 1986 1986 Peak Water Level (m) 20.92 20.92 Peak Volume (m3/sec) 2,650 3,130 Note: Data in 1970 and 1971 were not used for the analysis. Source: JICA (2011), the Preparatory Study for Pasig-Marikina River Channel Improvement Project (Phase III). WB (2012), the Study on Master Plan for Flood Management in Metro Manila and Surrounding Areas. Same water levels were used for the analysis. However, different discharges were estimated. As described in Sections 2.4.1 and 2.4.3, the difference was caused by the different H-Q curves. Historical floods are fundamental data for flood design and flood study. H-Q curves should also be examined for further study. The Study Team recommends that discharge measurements should be conducted, and that H-Q curves should be examined. ii) In 2009, the annual maximum water level was recorded during the event of Typhoon Ondoy. Both studies reported that large scale flood inundation happened in the upstream area of Sto. Niño during Typhoon Ondoy. Both studies determined the peak water level to be 22.16 m as the recorded maximum water level. Post flood survey of the inundation event is essential for the examination of the H-Q curve, the estimation of flood discharge and the establishment of a flood control plan. The Study Team recommends that actual situation of inundation during Typhoon Ondoy should be surveyed. iii) The area of the Pasig-Marikina River basin is 639 km2, excluding the Mangahan basin of 84 km2. The Marikina River basin, with an area of 538 km2, or 81% of the whole basin is attributable to the flood in the Pasig-Marikina River basin. The flood in the upstream area of Sto. Niño is most influential. Because it has an area of 517 km2 which is located between mountain area and alluvial plain. Its short flood concentration time and short traveling time are influenced by the channel slope of over 1/100 gradient, as well as the channel length of 36.5 km. The estimated lag time has an average of 5.5 hours, as derived from observed water level and rainfall. The estimated flood concentration time was 11 hours. As the results of correlation analysis of peak water levels and rainfall depths, the correlation coefficient of 1-day rainfall was 0.78 and the correlation coefficient of 2-day
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rainfall was 0.57. Historical floods in the basin were mainly brought by typhoons. The duration time of typhoon clouds staying on the basin was approximately under 20 hours, according to satellite images. For all of these reasons, the duration time of the design rainfall was determined to be one day. iv) Most of the floods in the basin were brought by typhoon rainfalls (tropical depressions) or monsoon rainfalls (orographic rainfalls). Using annual maximum daily rainfall after 1978 when the basin mean rainfall could be estimated with good accuracy, the type of weather disturbance was examined and separated into two types, namely, i) typhoon type and ii) monsoon and others type. Significant difference was detected between the two populations. In other words, it was found that the probability density functions of probable rainfall are different, depending on the type of weather disturbance. Therefore, the annual maximum basin mean daily rainfall depths of the two types were estimated. Probable rainfall was also estimated as shown in Table 5.2. Table 5.2 Probable Rainfall Typhoon Type Monsoon and Others Type Return Period 1/30 232.4 mm 203.3 mm Return Period 1/100 285.5 mm 244.6 mm Data Number 58 61 Source: Prepared by the Study Team
The 100-year probable rainfall for typhoon type and 100-year probable rainfall for monsoon and others type are independent of each other and both rainfall events can happen. In the flood control plan, the values in the safe side should be considered. The Study Team recommends to adopt the design rainfall depth of 285.5 mm. v) Observed temporal rainfall patterns were estimated, focusing on typhoon events. The prospective design rainfall patterns were derived from the estimated observed rainfall patterns and the 100-year probable rainfall. The Study Team recommends that the subject rainfall patterns should be examined for runoff analysis in further studies. vi) Daily rainfall depth at the Port Area station for the period of 1981-2000 and 2046-2065 were projected in the climate change analysis. It was projected that the annual maximum rainfall depth would increase by 0.22 mm/yr considering the annual maximum daily rainfall depth by climate change projection and the annual maximum daily rainfall trend for the period of 1906-2010. The basin mean rainfall depth was determined at 0.15 mm. However, the estimated increasing rate was 0.41 mm/yr for the period of 1981-2065. Climate change impacts might be accelerated, although the increasing rate estimation involves numerous errors. The Study Team recommends that stormy rainfalls should be continuously observed. Climate change impacts should be continuously monitored to keep the level of safety of the flood control sector.
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ANNEX
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Annex T 3.1 Inventory of Daily Rainfall Data Data Source Collected 1977 2009 *4, PAGASA 1981 1992 *4 2010 2012 MWSS 2001 2012 *4, MWSS 1961 2011 *4 1986 2011 *4 1976 2009 *4 1985 2006 *4 1992 2010 *4 World Bank Study 1993 2007 Selected 1993 2006 *4, PAGASA 1992 2010 Selected 1987 1995 *4 1971 1997 Selected 1971 1996 PAGASA 1975 2008 1975 20081975 Selected 1996 Selected 1975 2009 1975 *4, PAGASA 1996 PAGASA 1975 20091971 Selected 1999 Selected 1975 1999 *4, PAGASA 1961 2009 Selected 1961 2010 *4, PAGASA 1994 2006 Selected 1994 2011 PAGASA 1976 2010 1976 1996 Selected 1976 1996 *4, PAGASA 1985 2010 1975 2000 1992 2010 water balance study, 2010-2011: PAGASA 7 *3 1961 2010 Selected 1939 2011 *5 3 *3 1975 2010 Selected 1975 2010 PAGASA Elevation Coordinate Lat Lon Source Source From To Analysis From To - 14.9114 121.1650 *2 - 14.9142 121.2547 *2 - MWSS - - - ID Operation Type 05 MWSS - 14.9278 121.3647 *2 254 *2 151 PAGASA Agromet 14.1722 121.2303 *2 21.7 *3 425 PAGASA427 Synoptic PAGASA Synoptic 14.5892429 PAGASA 14.0333 120.9658 *1 Synoptic 121.5833 *1 14.5066433 PAGASA 121.0041434 *1 Synoptic PAGASA 16 *3 Synoptic 158 14.5814 *2 14.7500 121.3692 *2 121.6500 21 *1 *2 1961 1971 2010 Selected 2000 Selected 650 1951 *2 1971 1961 2012 PAGASA 2010 1999 *4 Selected 1951 2012 *4 430 PAGASA Synoptic 14.6458 121.0431 *1 43 *2 1961 2010 Selected 1961 2012 *4 153 PAGASA Agromet 14.3817 121.4767 *1 432 PAGASA Synoptic 14.0833 121.0500 *1 10 *3 1961 2010 Selected 1951 2011 *4,PAGASA 428 PAGASA Synoptic 14.5000 120.9167 *1 06-1 NPC 06-3 NPC 1306 PAGASA Climatic 14.5436 121.0781 *1 0418 PAGASA Climatic 14.5000 121.4383 *1 0415 PAGASA Climatic 14.6417 121.2383 *1 1301 PAGASA Climatic1305 PAGASA 14.4858 Climatic 121.0583 *1 14.5667 121.0833 *1 0408 PAGASA Climatic 14.3667 121.0383 *1 0406 PAGASA Climatic 14.1717 120.9500 *1 0409 PAGASA Climatic 14.2814 121.4128 *1 0417 PAGASA Climatic0424 PAGASA 14.7667 Climatic 121.1833 *1 14.1217 120.9667 *1 1309 PAGASA Climatic 14.7433 120.9450 *1 Name *2 Water this of Balance Study Study PAGASA *3 *4 Collected in the water balance study *5 1939-2000: Feasibility Study of Kanan Hydroelectric power project 2001-2009: (2003, JICA), 6 hour rainfall collected in the 8 Quezon Infanta, 9 Barrio Maitim, Amadeo, Cavite 2 Tayabas, Quezon 3 Sangley Point, Cavite 5 Scienec Garden 6 Ambulong, Batangas 7 Tanay (Radar) 1 Port Area 4 NAIA 23 UPLB, Los NAS, Banos 18 NPP Research, Bu.of Prison, Muntinlupa20 1304 Tipas, Taguig, MM PAGASA21 Polo, Valenzuela, MM Climatic22 Bureau of Soil, Cuyambay, Tanay, Rizal 14.3833 121.0167 *1 22 PAGASA Agromet 14.6117 121.3683 *1 19 Pasig Elem. Sch., Pasig, MM 24 Pakil, Laguna 25 Umiray 26 La Mesa 17 Bagumbayan, Taguig, MM 14 Sitio Rizal Tabak, Montalban, 15 Macasipac, Sta. Laguna Maria, 16 Tagaytay 10 Elem Mabolo Sch., Bacoor, Cavite 0407 PAGASA Climatic 14.4500 120.9333 *1 27 Dam Angat 11 San Pedro, Laguna 12 Sta Cruz, Laguna 13 Boso-Boso, Rizal Antipolo, 28 Matulid No Note: *1 and Surrounding Master Plan for Manila Flood Areas Management in Metro (World Bank) Srouce: Prepared Study by Team
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Annex T 3.2 Inventory of Hourly Rainfall Data Data Source Coordinate World Bank Study Collected Lat Lon Source From To Analysis From To *2 Collected in the water balance study 1 Science Garden2 Napindan3 Mt.Campana4 Aries5 Nangka6 BosoBoso7 Mt.Oro8 Sulipan9 1 dam Ipo EFCOS 3 2 Telemetry EFCOS EFCOS 14.6458 121.0431 *1 Telemetry Telemetry 4 5 8 14.6683 14.5572 EFCOS EFCOS EFCOS 121.2914 121.0669 2003 *1 *1 9 P1 2010 Telemetry Selected Telemetry Telemetry EFCOS P2 PRBFFWC 14.6628 14.6753 2003 14.6400 PRBFFWC Telemetry 2003 2003 121.1689 2010 121.1075 Telemetry Telemetry 121.2231 EFCOS *1 14.9394 *1 2009 *1 2009 Selected Selected 14.8750 14.7633 120.7586 *1 2003 121.1456 2003 121.1578 *1 *1 2008 2008 EFCOS EFCOS 2003 2003 1994 2010 2010 2010 Selected Selected Selected 1974 1974 2009 2003 1994 2003 Selected 1994 2009 2012 2010 2012 Selected 2012 EFCOS Selected EFCOS EFCOS 1973 1974 2009 1994 *2 2009 2012 *2 EFCOS 10 San Rafael P3 PRBFFWC Telemetry 14.9586 120.9647 *1 1974 2009 Selected 1973 2009 *2 No Name ID Operation Type
Note: *1 Master and Surrounding Plan for Manila FloodAreas Management in Metro (World Bank) Srouce: Prepared Study by Team
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Annex T 3.3 Hourly Rainfall Records of August 2012 Event (1/4)
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Annex T 3.3 Hourly Rainfall Records of August 2012 Event (2/4)
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Annex T 3.3 Hourly Rainfall Records of August 2012 Event (3/4)
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Annex T 3.3 Hourly Rainfall Records of August 2012 Event (4/4)
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Annex T 3.4 Inventory of Hourly Water Level Data 2003 2010 2002 2011 1994 2010 1994 2011 1994 2010 1994 2011 1994 2010 1994 2011 2003 2010 2002 2011 1994 2010 1994 2011 1994 2010 1994 2011 19941994 20101994 1994 20071994 2011 1994 2007 2011 1994 2007 2011 1994 2011 World Bank Study Collected Coordinate Lat Lon Source From To From To Lake River/ ID Operation Type Pasig 016 EFCOS Telemetry 14.5969 120.9686 *3 San Juan 007Marikina EFCOS 014 Telemetry EFCOS 14.6097 121.0211 Telemetry *3 14.6381 121.0931 *3 Marikina 005 EFCOS Telemetry 14.6753 121.1075 *3 Lugna 017 EFCOS Telemetry 14.5000 120.9167 *3 Pasig 015 EFCOS Telemetry 14.5939 121.0111 *3 Marikina 013 EFCOS Telemetry 14.7350 121.1275 *3 MarikinaMarikina 001aPasig EFCOS 001bPasig EFCOS Telemetry 002a EFCOS Telemetry 14.6000 002b EFCOS 14.6000 121.0878 *3 Telemetry 121.0878 *3 Telemetry 14.5572 14.5572 121.0669 *3 121.0669 *3 Name *2 side Lake *3 Master and Plan Surrounding for Flood Manila Areas Management in Metro (World Bank) 6 San Juan 7 Montalban 8 Sto. Nino 9 Pandacan 1 Rosario JS *1 2 Rosario LS *2 3 JS *1 Napindan 4 LS Napindan *2 5 Nangka 11 Angono 10 Fort Santiago No
Note: *1 Junction side Srouce: Prepared Study by Team
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Annex T 3.5 Flood Damage Records for the Period of 1993-2000 6,600,000 1,100,000 2,850,000 71,370,000 16,230,000 22,762,000 Costof Damage (PhP) Infrastructure Evacuated ------Affected Casualties Occurence Data From To Dead Injured Missing Families Person Families Person 1997/05/241997/07/30 1997/05/26 1997/08/07 20 1 4 - 2 40,671 - 203,045 1,000 - 50,000 1993/07/23 1993/07/271993/09/301993/12/03 1993/10/07 1993/12/06 - - 1 - - 1 - - 2,754 - 14,067 1,556 4,441 6,585 771 22,418 3,914 419 - 3,596 - 1996/07/141996/07/27 1996/07/14 1996/07/31 3 3 3 - 1 - 2,395 11,482 - - - 1993/08/16 1993/08/19 - - - 2,355 14,130 - - 1994/10/181995/09/27 1994/10/211995/10/30 1995/10/02 1995/11/04 22 - 21 40 253 - 4 7 13,919 - 109,254 62,797 519,030 - - - - - Gloring Rubing Kadiang Monang Katring Mameng Rosing Gloring Huaning Bining Huling and MilingIbiang 1997/08/15 1997/08/20 19 - - 78,953 449,027 18,368 104,968 Name / of Typhoon Tropical Storm Source: The Preparatory Study for Pasig-Marikina River Channel ImprovementProject 2011, DPWH, (Phase JICA III),
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Annex T 3.6 Flood Damage Records in Metro Manila for the Period of 2000-2009 No. Affected Casualties No. Evacuated Total Damage Year Typhoon Family Persons Dead Injured Missing Family Persons (mil. Peso) Seniang 14,818 77,899 3 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2000 Reming 3,691 19,371 7 N.A. N.A. 1,002 6,026 N.A. Juan 1,204 6,020 3 0 0 0 0 N.A. Chedeng 2,227 11,144 0 0 0 3 0 N.A. 2003 Onyok 145 721 1 1 0 145 721 N.A. Winnie 5,873 27,284 1 0 0 0 0 N.A. Florita 244 1,220 1 0 0 0 0 N.A. 2004 Glenda 24,209 121,118 0 0 0 693 3,538 N.A. Milenyo 5,778 24,040 8 48 0 5,649 24,044 N.A. Chedeng and Dodong 1,544 7,317 0 0 0 1,235 5,772 N.A. 2007 Egay 7,304 28,481 0 0 0 1,613 6,269 N.A. 2009 Ondoy 172,287 864,668 238 178 0 56,654 283,334 1,128 Source: The Preparatory Study for Pasig-Marikina River Channel Improvement Project (Phase III), 2011, DPWH, JICA
A - 9 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Annex T 3.7 Annual Maximum Water Level Records at Sto. Nino Gauging Station Water Water Year Day Source Year Day Source Level (m) Level (m) 1958 14.78 10-Sep BRS 1984 N/A 1959 17.72 17-Nov BRS 1985 N/A 1960 18.06 14-Aug BRS 1986 20.92 *1 1961 16.82 22-Sep BRS 1987 N/A 1962 17.10 20-Jul BRS 1988 N/A 1963 16.19 28-Jun BRS 1989 N/A 1964 17.45 30-Jun BRS 1990 N/A 1965 15.48 24-Jun BRS 1991 N/A 1966 19.40 21-Nov BRS 1992 N/A 1967 18.20 8-Jun BRS 1993 N/A 1968 16.68 29-Aug BRS 1994 16.33 25-Jul EFCOS 1969 14.65 6-Aug BRS 1995 18.40 1-Oct EFCOS 1970 N/A 1996 16.08 31-Oct EFCOS 1971 N/A 1997 17.16 19-Aug EFCOS 1972 18.05 1-Aug BRS 1998 18.41 23-Oct EFCOS 1973 13.95 8-Oct BRS 1999 18.30 3-Aug EFCOS 1974 13.98 20-Jul BRS 2000 19.02 3-Nov EFCOS 1975 13.70 10-Aug BRS 2001 16.31 17-Aug EFCOS 1976 15.82 14-Sep BRS 2002 17.94 8-Jul EFCOS 1977 19.44 14-Nov BRS 2003 17.76 28-May EFCOS 1978 N/A 2004 19.08 30-Nov EFCOS 1979 N/A 2005 16.03 16-Sep EFCOS 1980 N/A 2006 16.37 25-Jul EFCOS 1981 N/A 2007 16.90 29-Sep EFCOS 1982 N/A 2008 16.74 25-Sep EFCOS 1983 N/A 2009 22.16 26-Sep EFCOS *1 Detailed Engineering Desing of Pasig-Marikina River Channel Improvement Project, DPWH, 2002 Source: Master Plan for Flood Management in Metro Manila and Surrounding Areas, Final Draft Master Plan Report, March 2012, World Bank
A - 10 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Annex T 3.8 Availability of Rainfall Records Selection 0 0 0 3 8Selected 6Selected 6Selected 61 Selected 40 36 51 Selected 52 Selected 61 12 Selected 61 22 23 49 35 Selected 21 Selected 14 18 25 34 Selected 22 Selected 10 Selected 34 18 12 51 Selected 24 10 Selected 10 Selected 19 Selected 19 Selected 27 Selected 27 Selected 28 Selected
Number of Years
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
1968
1967
1966
1965
1964
1963
1962
1961
1960
1959
1958
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1956
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1954
1953
1952 1951 Basin Whole In/Out of In/Out Basin In/Out of Sto. Nino Sto. Data Type Name Fully available Fully Partly available Not available 1 Port Area2 Tayabas Quezon3 Cavite Point Sangley 4NAIA5 Scienec Garden6 Batangas Ambulong 7 (Radar) Tanay 8 Infanta9 BarrioCavite Amadeo Maitim Daily Out Daily Out Daily Daily Out Out Daily Daily Daily Out Out Out Out Out Out Daily Out Out Out Out In Daily Out Out Out 10 Elem Mabolo Sch.Bacoor Cavite 11 San Pedro, Laguna12 Sta Cruz Laguna13 Boso-Boso Rizal Antipolo 14Rizal Montalban Sitio Tabak 15 Daily Macasipac, Laguna Sta. Maria, 16 Tagaytay17 Bagumbayan MM Taguig Out18 Research NPP Bu.of Prison Muntinlupa19 Pasig Elem. Sch. Pasig MM20 Tipas MM Out Taguig Daily Daily21 Daily Daily DailyM.M. Valenzuela, Polo, 22 Bureau of Soil, Cuyambay, Rizal Tanay, Daily23 Out Out Out In In LosUPLB, Banos NAS, 24 Laguna Pakil, Out Daily Daily25 Umiray Out Out26 Daily Out Mesa La In In 27 Out Out Dam Angat Out 28 Out Matulid29 Daily Daily Science Garden Out Out30 Daily Napindan31 Out Daily Out Mt.Campana Out32 Aries Out33 Out Nangka34 Out Out BosoBoso35 Out Mt.Oro Daily36 Out Sulipan37 Dam Ipo Out38 San Rafael Daily Daily Daily Hourly Out Out Out Out Out Daily Hourly Hourly Out Out Out Out In Out In Hourly Hourly Hourly Out In In In In In Hourly Hourly Hourly Hourly In Out In Out In Out In Out In Out Out No Legend: Srouce: Prepared Study by Team
A - 11 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Annex T 3.9 Stormy Rainfall Events Extracted from Hourly Rainfall Data
Daily Rainfall Extreme Rainfall Date of Extreme Rainfall Number of Number of Year 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Samples Days in a Year 1994 108.5 90.5 88.5 75.0 73.5 1994/6/22 1994/7/25 1994/7/24 1994/10/21 1994/8/2 364 365 1995 166.0 106.0 87.0 84.0 74.5 1995/9/30 1995/7/28 1995/8/29 1995/11/2 1995/7/21 365 365 1996 120.5 89.0 82.0 69.5 57.5 1996/10/30 1996/9/9 1996/9/16 1996/7/25 1996/7/28 366 366 1997 170.0 161.5 112.5 88.5 70.0 1997/8/18 1997/5/26 1997/5/25 1997/8/19 1997/8/4 365 365 1998 234.0 144.0 124.0 78.5 74.5 1998/10/22 1998/9/18 1998/10/23 1998/9/17 1998/12/27 362 365 1999 61.5 55.0 53.0 41.0 33.5 1999/5/9 1999/3/8 1999/3/30 1999/4/13 1999/5/13 151 365 2000 178.0 153.0 149.0 143.5 142.0 2000/7/7 2000/7/5 2000/11/2 2000/5/18 2000/10/28 366 366 2001 127.5 118.0 91.5 87.0 76.0 2001/8/17 2001/7/19 2001/7/18 2001/5/10 2001/8/23 365 365 2002 156.5 145.0 126.5 93.0 79.0 2002/7/7 2002/7/6 2002/7/12 2002/8/13 2002/7/5 365 365 2003 170.4 130.0 121.0 120.1 71.9 2003/5/27 2003/9/2 2003/5/26 2003/5/28 2003/9/28 365 365 2004 172.1 130.9 119.1 73.4 63.3 2004/11/29 2004/8/24 2004/8/25 2004/12/2 2004/8/14 366 366 2005 111.0 96.0 59.7 55.9 53.9 2005/9/15 2005/10/27 2005/7/5 2005/6/4 2005/8/5 363 365 2006 105.7 82.4 66.4 64.1 58.4 2006/7/23 2006/7/24 2006/9/27 2006/7/25 2006/9/9 365 365 2007 132.1 103.1 85.1 67.1 64.6 2007/8/7 2007/8/17 2007/8/8 2007/5/29 2007/8/6 365 365 2008 176.2 95.0 78.6 75.4 73.6 2008/10/27 2008/6/22 2008/8/20 2008/9/25 2008/9/24 366 366 2009 319.6 117.6 75.6 72.4 61.4 2009/9/26 2009/9/25 2009/7/17 2009/5/7 2009/10/2 365 365 2010 67.3 61.0 58.0 53.7 50.0 2010/10/18 2010/8/26 2010/9/2 2010/8/5 2010/9/1 365 365 2011 152.0 141.3 115.8 101.5 80.3 2011/6/24 2011/9/27 2011/6/23 2011/9/26 2011/11/5 365 365 2012 271.7 240.5 181.3 116.3 112.0 2012/8/7 2012/8/6 2012/8/8 2012/7/27 2012/9/15 274 366
Hourly Rainfall Extreme Rainfall Date of Extreme Rainfall Number of Number of Year 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Samples Hours in a Year 1994 28.5 25.0 24.5 23.5 20.0 1994/7/25 13:00 1994/7/25 12:00 1994/8/30 15:00 1994/6/23 5:00 1994/5/7 16:00 8736 8760 1995 35.0 34.0 34.0 33.5 33.0 1995/10/1 3:00 1995/8/16 14:00 1995/8/20 20:00 1995/7/25 16:00 1995/7/9 17:00 8760 8760 1996 30.0 29.5 27.5 27.5 25.5 1996/9/9 15:00 1996/10/14 20:00 1996/7/29 8:00 1996/8/27 16:00 1996/5/11 16:00 8784 8784 1997 42.0 32.5 29.5 26.0 25.5 1997/6/16 17:00 1997/9/30 16:00 1997/9/1 18:00 1997/6/12 16:00 1997/8/18 18:00 8760 8760 1998 29.5 25.0 24.0 21.5 21.5 1998/10/22 18:00 1998/6/17 18:00 1998/6/4 16:00 1998/10/22 21:00 1998/12/16 14:00 8688 8760 1999 27.5 26.5 21.5 19.5 17.5 1999/3/9 8:00 1999/3/31 8:00 1999/4/13 15:00 1999/5/9 18:00 1999/5/9 21:00 3624 8760 2000 65.0 47.0 37.5 37.0 36.0 2000/8/2 18:00 2000/11/3 8:00 2000/5/18 12:00 2000/5/7 17:00 2000/5/18 6:00 8784 8784 2001 45.0 39.0 35.0 34.5 33.5 2001/7/19 19:00 2001/5/10 16:00 2001/7/19 20:00 2001/7/18 19:00 2001/6/9 15:00 8760 8760 2002 53.5 36.5 31.5 29.5 26.0 2002/8/13 11:00 2002/8/9 21:00 2002/9/22 20:00 2002/10/9 15:00 2002/8/30 20:00 8760 8760 2003 26.9 22.4 22.1 21.1 19.7 2003/5/27 13:00 2003/8/16 17:00 2003/9/28 15:00 2003/9/3 6:00 2003/5/28 8:00 8760 8760 2004 40.6 29.6 27.9 26.4 26.1 2004/11/29 21:00 2004/11/29 22:00 2004/8/16 0:00 2004/11/29 20:00 2004/8/14 22:00 8784 8784 2005 25.1 24.6 20.0 19.9 19.6 2005/5/17 19:00 2005/6/23 21:00 2005/9/16 15:00 2005/10/8 14:00 2005/6/4 18:00 8721 8760 2006 24.6 22.4 22.1 19.3 19.3 2006/9/9 21:00 2006/6/10 9:00 2006/7/25 15:00 2006/9/28 7:00 2006/10/2 19:00 8760 8760 2007 26.7 25.7 18.7 18.4 16.6 2007/5/29 20:00 2007/5/29 19:00 2007/8/8 7:00 2007/8/15 9:00 2007/8/8 3:00 8760 8760 2008 50.0 36.2 30.5 28.4 28.0 2008/10/28 6:00 2008/10/28 7:00 2008/7/16 9:00 2008/10/28 8:00 2008/9/24 23:00 8784 8784 2009 70.0 59.6 57.6 35.6 25.8 2009/9/26 11:00 2009/9/26 12:00 2009/9/26 10:00 2009/9/26 13:00 2009/9/7 1:00 8760 8760 2010 24.3 19.3 19.3 18.5 18.5 2010/9/7 18:00 2010/9/1 19:00 2010/8/1 16:00 2010/4/29 21:00 2010/8/8 16:00 8760 8760 2011 32.8 25.5 21.3 20.5 19.8 2011/10/8 2:00 2011/7/27 9:00 2011/8/2 7:00 2011/8/1 16:00 2011/6/24 20:00 8760 8760 2012 41.3 37.8 34.0 31.5 29.7 2012/7/28 20:00 2012/6/25 14:00 2012/8/7 6:00 2012/7/13 19:00 2012/8/8 0:00 6576 8784
Daily Water Level (Maximum in 24-hour) Extreme Water Level Date of Extreme Water Level Number of Number of Year 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Samples Days in a Year 1994 16.3 15.9 15.9 15.5 15.2 1994/7/25 1994/10/21 1994/8/2 1994/6/23 1994/7/24 365 365 1995 18.4 17.9 16.2 15.7 15.6 1995/10/1 1995/9/30 1995/11/3 1995/9/4 1995/8/30 365 365 1996 16.1 15.3 15.0 14.9 14.9 1996/10/31 1996/10/30 1996/9/16 1996/9/20 1996/8/2 366 366 1997 21.5 17.2 17.1 15.7 15.1 1997/4/4 1997/8/18 1997/8/19 1997/5/26 1997/8/20 365 365 1998 18.4 18.1 17.0 17.0 15.9 1998/10/23 1998/10/22 1998/9/19 1998/9/18 1998/10/24 365 365 1999 18.3 17.7 17.7 17.6 17.5 1999/8/3 1999/8/2 1999/10/17 1999/10/16 1999/8/1 365 365 2000 19.0 18.1 18.0 17.9 17.7 2000/11/3 2000/7/5 2000/10/28 2000/7/7 2000/10/29 366 366 2001 16.3 16.0 16.0 15.3 14.7 2001/8/17 2001/7/19 2001/8/23 2001/8/18 2001/7/18 365 365 2002 17.9 17.7 17.2 17.0 16.8 2002/7/7 2002/7/12 2002/7/13 2002/8/13 2002/7/8 365 365 2003 17.8 16.3 15.7 15.4 15.3 2003/5/28 2003/9/2 2003/5/27 2003/9/28 2003/5/29 365 365 2004 19.1 18.0 17.1 16.8 16.3 2004/11/29 2004/8/25 2004/12/2 2004/8/26 2004/11/30 366 366 2005 16.0 15.7 14.9 14.8 14.7 2005/9/15 2005/9/16 2005/8/12 2005/7/5 2005/9/4 365 365 2006 16.4 15.8 15.5 15.2 14.8 2006/7/25 2006/9/28 2006/7/24 2006/7/28 2006/7/23 365 365 2007 16.9 16.5 15.5 15.5 14.8 2007/9/29 2007/8/8 2007/8/7 2007/8/18 2007/8/9 365 365 2008 16.7 15.8 15.0 14.8 14.7 2008/9/25 2008/6/22 2008/9/26 2008/9/24 2008/8/20 366 366 2009 22.2 17.9 17.1 17.0 16.9 2009/9/26 2009/8/4 2009/9/25 2009/7/17 2009/7/16 223 365 2010 22.9 14.6 14.4 14.3 14.1 2010/11/26 2010/11/9 2010/9/2 2010/11/10 2010/10/27 96 365 2011 22.8 19.1 18.3 17.2 16.6 2011/12/21 2011/9/27 2011/6/24 2011/6/25 2011/9/28 343 365 2012 20.4 20.3 19.8 18.8 17.3 2012/8/8 2012/8/7 2012/8/9 2012/8/6 2012/8/10 244 366 Srouce: Prepared by Study Team
A - 12 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Annex T 3.10 Results of Data Check Time Type of Station Name of Station Orginal Data Fixed Data 2008/10/27 Rainfall Aries 881 Error 2004/05/18 18:00:00 Rainfall Sulipan 985 Error 1995/01/01 11:00:00 Water Level Sto. Nino 11..44 11.44 1995/04/23 05:00:00 Water Level Sto. Nino 10..74 10.74 1995/10/03 11:00:00 Water Level Sto. Nino 13..09 13.09 1995/12/03 21:00:00 Water Level Sto. Nino 13..07 13.07 1996/01/02 14:00:00 Water Level Sto. Nino 12..65 12.65 1996/05/13 20:00:00 Water Level Sto. Nino 11..29 11.29 1997/04/04 11:00:00 Water Level Sto. Nino 21.54 Error 1997/04/26 23:00:00 Water Level Sto. Nino 11..00 11 1998/08/09 21:00:00 Water Level Sto. Nino 12..48 12.48 2000/07/27 07:00:00 Water Level Sto. Nino 13.15. 13.15 2001/07/15 06:00:00 Water Level Sto. Nino 12..08 12.08 2001/10/05 01:00:00 Water Level Sto. Nino 12..43 12.43 2005/10/24 12:00:00 Water Level Sto. Nino 12.02. 12.02 2005/11/23 18:00:00 Water Level Sto. Nino 12.02. 12.02 2007/01/01 20:00:00 Water Level Sto. Nino 11..83 11.83 2008/09/30 13:00:00 Water Level Sto. Nino 12..26 12.26 2009/07/29 08:00:00 Water Level Sto. Nino 13.48. 13.48 2009/08/05 02:00:00 Water Level Sto. Nino 17.91 Error 2010/11/26 16:00:00 Water Level Sto. Nino 22.92 Error 2011/12/21 17:00:00 Water Level Sto. Nino 22.83 Error 2012/01/06 06:00:00 Water Level Sto. Nino 12.4812.48 12.48 2012/01/26 19:00:00 Water Level Sto. Nino 12..14 12.14 2012/08/30 02:00:00 Water Level Sto. Nino 13..82 13.82 Srouce: Prepared by Study Team
A - 13 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Annex T 3.11 Property of Stormy Rainfall Events Extracted from Hourly Rainfall Data (1/3) Record at Sto. Nino Sto. at Record Water Level Water Peak 12.54 10:00 1997/04/04 Partly Available 18.3017.67 11:00 1999/08/03 Available Fully 09:00 1999/10/17 Available Fully 11.06 02:00 1994/05/08 Available Fully 16.3315.86 18:00 1994/07/25 Available Fully 13.01 22:00 1994/08/02 Available Fully 15.89 09:00 1994/08/30 Available Fully 12.82 18:00 1994/10/21 Available Fully 13.30 03:00 1995/07/10 Available Fully 13.17 21:00 1995/07/21 Available Fully 23:00 1995/07/25 Available Fully 12.3014.55 16:00 1995/08/16 Available Fully 04:00 1995/08/21 Available Fully 15.71 11:00 1995/09/04 Available Fully 11.54 19:00 1996/05/11 Available Fully 14.69 22:00 1996/07/29 Available Fully 12.8114.12 22:00 1996/08/27 Available Fully 15.04 19:00 1996/09/09 Available Fully 14.90 23:00 1996/09/16 Available Fully 13.09 01:00 1996/09/21 Available Fully 23:00 1996/10/14 Available Fully 12.7612.56 09:00 1997/06/12 Available Fully 14.86 09:00 1997/06/16 Available Fully 20:00 1997/08/04 Available Fully 13.5213.28 00:00 1997/09/02 Available Fully 11.04 23:00 1997/09/30 Available Fully 11.45 04:00 1998/06/05 Available Fully 23:00 1998/06/17 Available Fully 14.28 22:00 1998/12/16 Available Fully 12.2411.69 17:00 1999/03/08 Available Fully 12.04 11:00 1999/03/31 Available Fully 11.59 17:00 1999/04/13 Available Fully 13.61 08:00 1999/05/10 Available Fully 21:00 1999/05/13 Available Fully 12.12 22:00 2000/05/07 Available Fully 15.51 17:00 1994/06/23 Available Fully 15.22 05:00 1995/07/29 Available Fully 15.62 18:00 1995/08/30 Available Fully 16.18 17:00 1995/11/03 Available Fully 14.88 22:00 1996/07/26 Available Fully 14.89 10:00 1996/08/02 Available Fully 16.08 13:00 1996/10/31 Available Fully 15.72 18:00 1997/05/26 Available Fully 17.16 08:00 1997/08/19 Available Fully 17.0218.41 10:00 1998/09/19 Available Fully 21:00 1998/10/23 Available Fully 14.62 15:00 1998/12/28 Available Fully 16.8118.10 20:00 2000/05/18 Available Fully 02:00 2000/07/06 Available Fully WL. [m] Time Partly Availble Fully Available Station Available Available Duration [hour] Duration Rainfall Peak [mm] 1 hour1 hour 6 hour 12 hour 24 >=1.0mm >=5mm Total [mm] To Time From 1 16:00 1994/05/07 17:00 1994/05/07 22.5 20.0 22.5 22.5 22.5 2 1 2 2 12:00 1994/06/22 4516:00 1994/06/23 21:00 1994/08/01 6 15:00 1994/08/30 7 149.500:00 1994/08/03 19:00 1994/10/20 816:00 1994/08/30 17:00 1995/07/09 9 104.513:00 1994/10/22 23.5 16:00 1995/07/21 19:00 1995/07/09 15:00 1995/07/25 28.5 102.502:00 1995/07/22 74.0 9.517:00 1995/07/25 50.0 24.5 16.0 73.5 119.5 46.5 43.0 33.0 28.5 143.5 54.0 20.5 78.0 33.5 50.0 28.5 63.5 65.5 29 98.5 43.0 50.0 28.5 76.0 73.5 43.0 11 50.0 28 73.5 2 43 43.0 11 2 3 11 1 4 3 2 2 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 10:00 1994/07/23 16:00 1994/07/25 214.0 28.5 73.0 100.5 143.0 55 6 2 1011 15:00 1995/07/28 12 13:00 1995/08/16 1304:00 1995/07/29 18:00 1995/08/20 1417:00 1995/08/16 10:00 1995/08/29 15 105.521:00 1995/08/20 13:00 1995/09/03 1615:00 1995/08/30 23:00 1995/09/29 44.01709:00 1995/09/04 26.5 18:00 1995/11/02 67.018 124.017:00 1995/10/01 15:00 1996/05/11 19 34.019:00 1995/11/03 10:00 1996/07/24 62.020 70.0 34.0 187.016:00 1996/05/11 15.0 01:00 1996/07/29 21 107.0 44.019:00 1996/07/26 20:00 1996/08/01 22 103.5 13.0 67.016:00 1996/07/29 35.0 16:00 1996/08/27 27.023 52.0 165.012:00 1996/08/02 21.0 14:00 1996/09/09 24 44.0 105.5 42.017:00 1996/08/27 110.0 08:00 1996/09/16 77.525 67.0 25.5 76.012:00 1996/09/10 13.5 03:00 1996/09/20 76.026 77.0 44.0 137.009:00 1996/09/17 20:00 1996/10/14 46.527 53.0 27.5 14 67.0 121.0 27.019:00 1996/09/20 14:00 1996/10/30 92.028 39.5 10.5 95.0 170.021:00 1996/10/14 90.529 27.5 62.0 52.023:00 1996/10/31 12:00 1997/05/24 52.030 27.0 5 30.0 106.0 59.5 40.5 30 9 16:00 1997/06/12 33.031 4 13.5 136.5 46.523:00 1997/05/26 16:00 1997/06/16 4332 76.0 19.0 27.0 103.0 21 78.017:00 1997/06/12 11:00 1997/08/04 33 72.5 29.5 1 330.0 51.018:00 26 1997/06/16 14.5 04:00 1997/08/18 34 46.5 2 3 77.5 3 45.521:00 1997/08/04 12:00 1997/09/01 27 27.035 84.0 76.0 33.016:00 58 1997/08/20 23.0 15:00 1997/09/30 44.536 58.0 4 2 59.5 46.519:00 1997/09/01 15:00 1 1998/06/04 67.037 48.0 7 26.0 92.0 276.0 16 1 17:00 1997/09/30 113.0 16:00 1 1998/06/17 38 33.0 101.0 42.0 1 86.0 1718:00 19 1998/06/04 09:00 1998/09/16 47.539 13.0 52.0 2 1 27.0 183.519:00 1998/06/17 25.5 15:00 1998/10/21 52.040 2 130.0 33.0 1 23 44.511:00 1998/09/19 12:00 1998/12/16 36.541 9 29.5 10 26 61.5 228.0 104:00 1998/10/24 20:00 1998/12/27 39.542 27.0 2 74.0 32.5 284.5 1715:00 1998/12/16 08:00 2 1999/03/09 43 44.5 24.0 34 2 18.40 374.5 41.014:00 1998/12/28 16:00 1999/03/30 44 67.0 3 2 138.0 25.0 27.0 2 10:00 1995/10/01 52.008:00 1999/03/09 17.5 15:00 1999/04/13 Available Fully 45.0 6045 2 5 44.5 36.514:00 1999/03/31 29.5 17:00 1999/05/09 99.046 47.5 3 211.0 19 67.0 39.520:00 1999/04/13 18:00 2 1999/05/13 27.547 52.0 65.0 21.5 2 102:00 1999/05/10 112.0 19 60.548 36.5 2 12.5 47.5 2 19:00 1999/05/13 39.549 39.5 3 27.5 61 52.0 2 96.5 11 45.0 165.0 2 16:00 2000/05/07 61.550 26.5 36.5 49.5 11:00 2 2000/05/17 32.0 21.5 2 39.5 1 145.5 27.5 274.522:00 2000/05/07 03:00 2000/07/03 45.0 8 19.5 28 1 35.003:00 2000/05/19 73.5 6 3 16.5 39.513:00 2000/07/09 45.5 27.5 4 45.0 263.0 58.0 75 2 62 46.0 4 99.0 7 688.0 32.0 2 2 39.5 37.0 27.5 2 2 37.5 61.5 60.5 2 14 23.5 34 32.0 4 39.5 2 19 44.0 2 99.0 61.5 2 1 95.0 32.0 23 2 45.5 197.0 2 2 3 18 2 6 133.5 10 247.0 45.5 1 1 2 182.5 2 2 2 6 41 2 155 7 2 2 2 21 2 47 1 2 2 2 2 No
Srouce: Prepared Study Team by
A - 14 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Annex T 3.11 Property of Stormy Rainfall Events Extracted from Hourly Rainfall Data (2/3) Record at Sto. Nino Water Level Water Peak 13.89 22:00 2000/08/02 Available Fully 11.5014.66 21:00 2001/06/09 Available Fully 04:00 2001/07/19 Available Fully 14.92 03:00 2002/08/10 Available Fully 13.8514.98 23:00 2002/08/30 Available Fully 13.38 02:00 2002/09/23 Available Fully 21:00 2002/10/08 Available Fully 14.25 00:00 2003/08/17 Available Fully 15.3514.96 20:00 2003/09/28 Available Fully 15.01 02:00 2004/08/15 Available Fully 02:00 2004/08/16 Available Fully 17.0711.55 04:00 2004/12/03 Available Fully 12.71 04:00 2005/05/18 Available Fully 14.65 20:00 2005/06/04 Available Fully 23:00 2005/06/23 Available Fully 14.8814.37 00:00 2005/08/13 Available Fully 14.67 22:00 2005/09/03 Partly Available 22:00 2005/09/04 Partly Available 13.2714.30 23:00 2005/10/07 Partly Available 16:00 2005/10/08 Partly Available 11.34 11:00 2006/06/10 Available Fully 15.1713.89 23:00 2006/07/28 Available Fully 22:00 2006/09/09 Partly Available 14.5113.73 22:00 2006/10/02 Available Fully 13.26 21:00 2007/05/29 Available Fully 21:00 2007/08/06 Available Fully 13.78 11:00 2007/08/15 Partly Available 17.9519.02 07:00 2000/10/29 Available Fully 13.34 13:00 2000/11/03 Available Fully 22:00 2001/05/10 Available Fully 15.9916.31 22:00 2001/07/19 Available Fully 15.99 23:00 2001/08/17 Available Fully 17.94 18:00 2001/08/23 Available Fully 17.74 00:00 2002/07/08 Available Fully 16.16 04:00 2002/07/13 Available Fully 06:00 2002/07/21 Available Fully 16.98 17:00 2002/08/13 Available Fully 17.76 00:00 2003/05/29 Available Fully 16.31 23:00 2003/09/02 Available Fully 18.0219.08 14:00 2004/08/25 Available Fully 02:00 2004/11/30 Available Fully 14.7814.48 19:00 2005/07/05 Available Fully 02:00 2005/08/06 Available Fully 14.08 05:00 2005/10/28 Partly Available 16.37 20:00 2006/07/25 Available Fully 15.78 15:00 2006/09/28 Available Fully 16.51 00:00 2007/08/09 Available Fully 15.49 15:00 2007/08/18 Available Fully 16.90 19:00 2007/09/29 Available Fully WL. [m] Time Partly Availble Fully Available Station Available Available Duration [hour] Duration Rainfall Peak [mm] 1 hour1 hour 6 hour 12 hour 24 >=1.0mm >=5mm Total [mm] To Time From 51 18:00 2000/08/02 01:00 2000/08/03 79.0 65.0 78.0 79.0 79.0 8 2 1 5253 23:00 2000/10/27 54 21:00 2000/11/02 5516:00 2000/10/29 11:00 2001/05/09 5612:00 2000/11/03 14:00 2001/06/09 57 187.010:00 2001/05/11 15:00 2001/07/18 58 178.515:00 2001/06/09 17:00 2001/07/19 59 143.500:00 2001/07/19 17.5 12:00 2001/08/15 6023:00 2001/07/19 47.0 00:00 2001/08/23 47.56123:00 2001/08/18 39.0 14:00 2002/07/05 91.062 61.0 117.016:00 2001/08/23 118.0 17:00 2002/07/11 63 33.5 256.503:00 2002/07/09 04:00 2002/07/20 64 101.0 73.0 34.5 114.5 164.012:00 2002/07/15 45.0 20:00 2002/08/09 65 423.5 47.515:00 2002/07/22 23.0 00:00 2002/08/13 66 149.5 234.0 81.0 86.0 178.500:00 2002/08/10 115.5 22.0 19:00 2002/08/30 67 130.013:00 2002/08/13 23.5 18:00 2002/09/22 68 47.5 71.0 112.0 117.023:00 2002/08/30 23.0 14:00 2002/10/09 59.069 91.0 87.0 42 104.522:00 2002/09/22 23:00 2003/05/25 1670 64.5 9.5 47.5 94.5 117.016:00 2002/10/09 16:00 2003/08/16 42.571 107.0 63.0 36.5 91.007:00 48 2003/05/29 53.5 05:00 2003/09/02 58.572 112.5 13 136.0 31.521:00 2003/08/16 14:00 2003/09/28 14 37.073 114.5 106.0 26.0 420.3 59.009:00 2003/09/03 20:00 2004/08/14 74 2 182.0 95.0 31.5 7 1022:00 2003/09/28 16:00 2004/08/15 45.475 51.5 140.0 3 29.5 171.6 42.501:00 2 84 2004/08/15 26.9 20:00 2004/08/24 76 59.0 102.5 2 17 58.501:00 2004/08/16 10:00 2004/11/29 70.077 22.4 86 79.5 2 37.001:00 5 2004/08/27 21.1 14:00 2004/12/02 61.778 42.5 6 104.5 73.0 92 59.0 2 01:00 15 2004/11/30 18:00 2005/05/17 50.779 58.5 22.1 284.4 45.409:00 9 2004/12/03 16:00 2005/06/04 80 37.0 110.3 55.7 26.1 20 42.5 171.4 6019:00 2005/05/17 19:00 2 2005/06/23 81 2 27.9 13 14 58.5 2 62.122:00 2005/06/04 26.0 00:00 2005/07/05 74.482 45.4 5 182.0 105.6 2 37.0 61.703:00 2005/06/24 40.6 16:00 2005/08/04 29.383 2 39.920:00 2 2005/07/05 129.7 12:00 2005/08/11 52.084 70.0 5 3 140.7 45.4 8.310:00 2 3 2005/08/06 134.6 11:00 2005/09/03 48.785 61.7 5 25.1 81 3 180.019:00 2005/08/12 18:00 2005/09/04 82.186 50.7 3 19.6 70.0 165.621:00 2005/09/03 17:00 2005/09/14 94.387 37.3 24.6 29 61.7 2 2 29.3 214.021:00 2005/09/04 19:00 2005/10/07 79.088 6 2 13.3 30 50.7 4 50.3 171.419:00 2005/09/16 13:00 2 2005/10/08 43.489 57.9 1 45.6 9.400:00 2005/10/08 06:00 2005/10/27 28.690 29.3 9 27 190.4 49.0 7.419:00 2005/10/08 09:00 2 2006/06/10 5491 52.0 6 18.4 3 1011:00 7 2005/10/28 74.4 03:00 2 2006/07/23 21.7 1692 48.7 27.3 12.0 29.312:00 2006/06/10 20.0 14:00 2 2006/07/28 33.193 63.7 27.0 52.0 6 110.0 39.921:00 7 2006/07/25 13:00 2006/09/09 1594 14.4 48.7 47.6 2 28.621:00 2006/07/28 13:00 7 2006/09/27 28.095 2 20 53.0 19.9 9 82.1 39.9 272.300:00 2006/09/10 18:00 2006/10/02 96 43.4 2 8.9 21.717:00 2006/09/28 78.0 18:00 7 2007/05/29 56.397 28.6 7 22.4 7 70.6 31.321:00 2006/10/02 64.3 22.1 11:00 7 2007/08/06 57.098 9 43.4 7 8 103.3 21 43.621:00 7 2007/05/29 11:00 2007/08/07 99 21.7 13.7 28.6 1 124.2 28.001:00 2007/08/07 07:00 2007/08/15 38.1 33.1 43 55.4 24.6 305:00 2007/08/09 19.3 10:00 2007/08/17 66.6 63.3 32 21.7 3 14 11 51.415:00 2007/08/15 7 63.6 28.0 19.3 33.1 216.4 74.6 46.313:00 51 2007/08/18 7 100.4 18 4 43.1 26.7 7 53.3 56.3 12.4 28.0 5 115.4 113.4 38.1 18.7 7 57.0 7 2 6 76.0 66.6 14 7 30 18.4 56.3 7 2 50.4 16.4 38.1 66.4 57.0 67 7 98.0 66.6 4 7 1 47.7 59.1 5 101.1 16 41.7 38.1 2 7 8 66.6 12 53.3 178.7 29 2 63.6 4 61.0 7 2 7 7 4 53.3 5 109.3 3 4 10 16.03 43 7 15 7 03:00 2005/09/16 Partly Available 2 28 7 9 26 7 4 7 9 7 4 6 7 7 7 7 7 100 00:00 2007/09/29 15:00 2007/09/29 89.9 14.3 43.7 77.3 89.9 16 13 7 No
Srouce: Prepared Study Team by
A - 15 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Annex T 3.11 Property of Stormy Rainfall Events Extracted from Hourly Rainfall Data (3/3) Recordat Sto. Nino Not Available Not Available Not Available Not Available Not Available Not Not Available Not Available Not Water Level Water Peak 22.16 18:00 2009/09/26 Partly Available 15.86 18:00 2009/09/09 Partly Available 11.97 09:00 2010/11/26 Partly Available 15.8114.43 19:00 2008/06/22 Available Fully 14.72 17:00 2008/07/16 Available Fully 14.78 17:00 2008/08/20 Available Fully 16.74 01:00 2008/09/25 Available Fully 12.45 00:00 2008/09/26 Available Fully 14.04 20:00 2008/10/28 Available Fully 17.04 08:00 2009/05/08 Partly Available 16.68 09:00 2009/07/17 Partly Available 23:00 2009/08/05 Partly Available 18.28 03:00 2011/06/25 Available Fully 16.0719.13 14:00 2011/08/02 Available Fully 18:00 2011/09/27 Available Fully 14.4013.15 02:00 2010/09/03 Partly Available 13.84 13:00 2010/09/07 Partly Available 14.06 04:00 2010/10/19 Available Fully 14.59 17:00 2010/10/27 Partly Available 14.27 18:00 2010/11/09 Partly Available 20:00 2010/11/10 Available Fully 14.30 19:00 2011/07/26 Available Fully 14.5015.79 04:00 2011/10/08 Available Fully 13.23 12:00 2011/11/06 Available Fully 20:00 2011/12/21 Partly Available 15.56 00:00 2012/07/28 Available Fully 15.15 10:00 2012/09/15 Available Fully 14.0014.17 18:00 2012/06/25 Available Fully 21:00 2012/07/13 Available Fully 15.37 01:00 2012/07/29 Available Fully WL. [m] Time Partly Availble 4 4 Fully Available Station Available Available Duration [hour] Duration Rainfall Peak [mm] 1 hour1 hour 6 hour 12 hour 24 >=1.0mm >=5mm Total [mm] To Time From 102103 09:00 2008/07/16 104 09:00 2008/08/20 10520:00 2008/07/16 22:00 2008/09/24 10613:00 2008/08/20 15:00 2008/09/25 10701:00 2008/09/25 17:00 2008/10/28 52.810802:00 2008/09/26 22:00 2009/05/06 40.210907:00 2008/10/29 07:00 2009/07/17 66.4110 30.503:00 2009/05/08 19:00 2009/08/04 74.2 16.806:00 2009/07/18 01:00 2009/09/07 61.4 28.0 40.817:00 2009/08/05 85.0 18.6 40.202:00 2009/09/10 79.2 16.6 66.4 85.8 52.8 20.6 181.0 59.2 40.2 14.6 37.8 66.4 14.0 52.8 47.8 25.8 74.2 40.2 42.0 50.6 66.4 37.6 58.2 36.0 74.2 12 50.4 61.4 55.4 5 77.4 44.8 4 79.2 12 7 85.8 15 72.0 3 30 3 24 9 4 23 3 74 5 3 5 3 5 2 5 1 5 5 5 5 101 05:00 2008/06/22 08:00 2008/06/23 97.2 12.4111 43.4 18:00 2009/09/25 56.021:00 2009/09/26 95.0 435.8 70.0 28 270.6 320.4 8 420.8 5 28 25 5 112113 18:00 2009/10/02 114 20:00 2010/04/29 11518:00 2009/10/03 15:00 2010/08/01 11621:00 2010/04/29 14:00 2010/08/05 11716:00 2010/08/01 08:00 2010/08/08 74.411821:00 2010/08/05 14:00 2010/08/26 27.811920:00 2010/08/08 13:00 2010/09/01 23.8120 16.420:00 2010/08/26 20:00 2010/09/02 53.3121 18.500:00 2010/09/02 16:00 2010/09/07 34.5122 19.3 34.201:00 2010/09/03 20:00 2010/10/18 59.0123 18.0 27.820:00 2010/09/07 15:00 2010/10/27 48.7124 18.5 23.814:00 2010/10/19 13:00 2010/11/08 49.7 53.0 18.5 40.017:00 2010/10/27 15:00 2010/11/10 33.7 27.8 19.3 28.014:00 2010/11/08 78.3 23.8 14.7 73.0 56.516:00 2010/11/10 19.3 53.3 24.3 27.8 42.3 12.0 33.5 10.3 23.8 49.7 59.0 13.0 5.5 53.3 25 33.7 48.7 34.5 35.3 8.5 49.7 2 59.0 19.3 33.7 2 4.3 48.7 14 63.5 8 12.0 49.7 13 19.3 33.7 2 5.5 7 78.3 12.0 1 12 5 19.3 7 5 6 5.5 12.0 4 5 5 19 4 4 3 3 2 5 5.5 1 2 11 2 3 1 3 2 3 1 4 4 4 128 13:00 2011/08/01 13114:00 2011/08/02 132 14:00 2011/11/05 109.0 15:00 2011/12/21 08:00 2011/11/06 16:00 2011/12/21 21.3 80.3 56.5 4.8 14.8 64.5 2.5 57.3 106.5 4.8 72.5 26 80.3 4.8 6 4.8 19 4 8 2 4 127 21:00 2011/07/26 12913021:00 2011/07/27 05:00 2011/09/26 20:00 2011/10/07 05:00 2011/09/29 88.309:00 2011/10/08 279.0 25.5 73.5 12.0 53.5 32.8 49.0 72.0 54.5 88.0 87.3 68.3 151.0 73.5 25 73 10 14 42 4 6 4 4 126 09:00 2011/06/23 22:00 2011/06/25 286.3 19.8 70.3 112.8 157.5 62 20 4 125 134135 17:00 2012/07/13 15:00 2012/07/27 13720:00 2012/07/13 13822:00 2012/07/27 11:00 2012/08/06 19:00 2012/09/15 58.3 114.810:00 2012/08/09 08:00 2012/09/17 31.5 697.3 25.8 157.8 58.3 34.0 98.3 20.5 132.8 58.3 114.8 80.8 201.0 114.8 58.3 101.8 359.3 135.5 8 4 72 38 7 3 61 13 4 4 2 4 2 20.42 06:00 2012/08/09 Available Fully 133 11:00 2012/06/25 13621:00 2012/06/25 19:00 2012/07/28 53.822:00 2012/07/28 37.8 51.8 50.5 41.3 53.8 51.8 53.8 51.8 51.8 11 5 4 4 1 4 No
Srouce: Prepared Study Team by
A - 16 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Annex T 3.12 Correlation of Rainfall Depth and Peak Water Level (One Day Rainfall) Annual Maximum 1-Day Rainfall Depth 1-Day Rainfall WL Year Date Boso-BosoSitio TabakMt.CampanAries Nangka BosoBoso Mt.Oro BMR Sto. Nino Climatic Climatic EFCOS EFCOS EFCOS EFCOS EFCOS Arithmetic Time WL [m] 1994 1994/6/22 66.7 59.3 94 123 92.1 1994/06/23 17:00 15.51 1995 1995/9/30 78.0 82.0 166 124.0 1995/10/01 10:00 18.40 1996 1996/10/30 70.4 75 166 120.5 1996/10/31 13:00 16.08 1997 1997/8/18 77.1 194 146 170.0 1997/08/19 08:00 17.16 1998 1998/10/22 196.0 271 197 234.0 1998/10/23 08:00 18.06 1999 No_Data 2000 2000/7/7 216.0 221 135 178.0 2000/07/08 04:00 17.87 2001 2001/8/17 225.1 190 65 127.5 2001/08/17 23:00 16.31 2002 2002/7/7 125.1 137 176 156.5 2002/07/08 00:00 17.94 2003 2003/5/27 288.0 248 186 152 231 130 189.4 2003/05/29 00:00 17.76 2004 2004/11/29 14.1 227 149 160 191 224 190.2 2004/11/30 02:00 19.08 2005 2005/9/15 110.1 106 134 114 115 86 111.0 2005/09/16 03:00 16.03 2006 2006/7/23 75.0 83 105 109 106 146 109.8 2006/07/23 23:00 14.77 2007 2007/8/7 90.0 129 144 106 120 134 126.6 2007/08/09 00:00 16.51 2008 2008/8/20 35.0 88 62 101 92 85.8 2008/08/20 17:00 14.72 2009 2009/9/26 128.3 280 269 352 262 290.8 2009/09/26 18:00 22.16 2010 No_Data 2011 2011/6/24 165 197 28 218 152.0 2011/06/25 03:00 18.28 2012 2012/8/7 246 219 350 271.7 2012/08/07 15:00 20.33
Maximum Water Level 1-Day Rainfall WL Rank Date Boso-BosoSitio TabakMt.CampanAries Nangka BosoBoso Mt.Oro BMR Sto. Nino Climatic Climatic EFCOS EFCOS EFCOS EFCOS EFCOS Arithmetic Time WL [m] 1 2009/9/26 128.3 280 269 352 262 290.8 2009/09/26 18:00 22.16 2 2012/8/8 229 0 315 181.3 2012/08/09 06:00 20.42 3 2011/9/27 140 128 152 145 141.3 2011/09/27 18:00 19.13 4 2004/11/29 14.1 227 149 160 191 224 190.2 2004/11/30 02:00 19.08 5 2000/11/2 190.1 170 128 149.0 2000/11/03 13:00 19.02 6 1998/10/23 177.1 161 87 124.0 1998/10/23 21:00 18.41 7 1995/9/30 78.0 82.0 166 124.0 1995/10/01 10:00 18.40 8 1999/8/2 171.0 1999/08/03 11:00 18.30 9 2011/6/24 165 197 28 218 152.0 2011/06/25 03:00 18.28 10 2000/7/5 159.2 130 176 153.0 2000/07/06 02:00 18.10 11 2004/8/24 0.0 157 189 147 125 72 138.0 2004/08/25 14:00 18.02 12 2000/10/28 198.1 155 129 142.0 2000/10/29 07:00 17.95 13 2002/7/7 125.1 137 176 156.5 2002/07/08 00:00 17.94 14 2003/5/28 101.0 109 162 124 107 137 127.8 2003/05/29 00:00 17.76 15 2002/7/12 87.0 182 71 126.5 2002/07/13 04:00 17.74 Srouce: Prepared by Study Team
A - 17 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Annex T 3.12 Correlation of Two Day Rainfall Depth and Peak Water Level (Two Day Rainfall) Annual Maximum 2-Day Rainfall Depth 2-Day Rainfall WL Year Date Boso-BosoSitio TabakMt.CampanAries Nangka BosoBoso Mt.Oro BMR Sto. Nino From To Climatic Climatic EFCOS EFCOS EFCOS EFCOS EFCOS Arithmetic Time WL [m] 1994 1994/7/24 1994/7/25 167.2 77.2 300 58 145.1 1994/07/25 18:00 16.33 1995 1995/9/30 1995/10/1 78.0 90.8 179 134.9 1995/10/01 10:00 18.40 1996 1996/10/30 1996/10/31 88.6 88 193 140.5 1996/10/31 13:00 16.08 1997 1997/5/25 1997/5/26 316.2 305 243 274.0 1997/05/26 18:00 15.72 1998 1998/10/22 1998/10/23 373.1 432 284 358.0 1998/10/23 21:00 18.41 1999 No_Data 2000 2000/5/17 2000/5/18 159.3 108 421 264.5 2000/05/18 20:00 16.81 2001 2001/7/18 2001/7/19 242.1 240 179 209.5 2001/07/19 22:00 15.99 2002 2002/7/6 2002/7/7 257.1 276 327 301.5 2002/07/08 00:00 17.94 2003 2003/5/27 2003/5/28 389.0 357 348 276 338 267 317.2 2003/05/29 00:00 17.76 2004 2004/8/24 2004/8/25 175.0 294 346 305 236 191 274.4 2004/08/25 14:00 18.02 2005 2005/9/15 2005/9/16 160.1 161 185 139 190 128 160.6 2005/09/16 03:00 16.03 2006 2006/7/23 2006/7/24 128.0 135 174 204 159 305 195.4 2006/07/25 20:00 16.37 2007 2007/8/7 2007/8/8 167.0 195 220 193 184 261 210.6 2007/08/09 00:00 16.51 2008 2008/9/24 2008/9/25 126.2 175 186 148 135 161.0 2008/09/26 00:00 16.74 2009 2009/9/25 2009/9/26 200.7 405 375 485 396 415.3 2009/09/26 18:00 22.16 2010 No_Data 2011 2011/6/23 2011/6/24 300 356 45 370 267.8 2011/06/25 03:00 18.28 2012 2012/8/7 2012/8/8 475 665 570.0 2012/08/09 06:00 20.42
Maxim um W ater Level 2-Day Rainfall WL Rank Date Boso-BosoSitio TabakMt.CampanAries Nangka BosoBoso Mt.Oro BMR Sto. Nino Climatic Climatic EFCOS EFCOS EFCOS EFCOS EFCOS Arithmetic Time WL [m] 1 2009/9/25 2009/9/26 200.7 405 375 485 396 415.3 2009/09/26 18:00 22.16 2 2012/8/7 2012/8/8 475 665 570.0 2012/08/09 06:00 20.42 3 2011/9/26 2011/9/27 279 249 295 148 242.8 2011/09/27 18:00 19.13 4 2004/11/28 2004/11/29 63.1 233 149 160 191 224 191.4 2004/11/30 02:00 19.08 5 2000/11/2 2000/11/3 237.1 212 161 186.5 2000/11/03 13:00 19.02 6 1998/10/22 1998/10/23 373.1 432 284 358.0 1998/10/23 21:00 18.41 7 1995/9/29 1995/9/30 118.1 89.2 179 134.1 1995/10/01 10:00 18.40 8 1999/8/1 1999/8/2 522.3 1999/08/03 11:00 18.30 9 2011/6/23 2011/6/24 300 356 45 370 267.8 2011/06/25 03:00 18.28 10 2000/7/4 2000/7/5 213.2 183 308 245.5 2000/07/06 02:00 18.10 11 2004/8/24 2004/8/25 175.0 294 346 305 236 191 274.4 2004/08/25 14:00 18.02 12 2000/10/27 2000/10/28 234.1 186 170 178.0 2000/10/29 07:00 17.95 13 2002/7/6 2002/7/7 257.1 276 327 301.5 2002/07/08 00:00 17.94 14 2003/5/27 2003/5/28 389.0 357 348 276 338 267 317.2 2003/05/29 00:00 17.76 15 2002/7/11 2002/7/12 96.0 204 85 144.5 2002/07/13 04:00 17.74 Srouce: Prepared by Study Team
A - 18 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Annex T 3.13 Comparison of Arithmetic Mean Method and Thiessen Method (One Day Rainfall) 0.44 0.00 0.43 0.460.48 0.50 0.19 0.50 0.00 0.37 0.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.56 0.140.48 0.09 0.09 0.37 0.39 0.22 Aries Nangka BosoBoso Mt.Oro n 0.000.00 0.000.30 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.09 0.13 0.33 Mt.Campa k 0.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sitio Taba Pattern Thiessen Pattern Thiessen BMR Aries Nangka BosoBoso Mt.Oro n Correlation 0.97 Mt.Campa k Climatic EFCOS EFCOS EFCOS EFCOS EFCOS Thiessen Arithmetic Climatic EFCOS EFCOS EFCOS EFCOS EFCOS 2002/7/72007/8/72012/8/72012/8/8 129 144 137 106 176 156.5 120 246 156.6 229 Pattern 3 134 126.6 0 129.5 Pattern 4 219 350 271.7 315 181.3 278.8 Pattern 6 244.9 Pattern 7 2000/7/7 221 135 178.0 177.8 Pattern 3 Pattern 8 2000/7/5 130 176 153.0 153.1 Pattern 3 Pattern 7 2000/11/22001/8/172002/7/122003/5/272003/5/282004/8/242005/9/152006/7/23 2482008/8/20 1092009/9/26 157 1862011/6/24 1622011/9/27 106 189 152 83 124 134 147 170 231 105 190 107 114 125 128 130 182 109 137 88 65 149.0 115 189.4 280 72 127.8 165 127.5 106 71 148.9 189.3 140 Pattern 3 62 Pattern 138.0 4 269 86 126.9 127.2 126.5 Pattern 4 197 Pattern 3 146 128.5 111.0 128 Pattern 4 101 352 126.2 109.8 Pattern 3 105.4 28 Pattern 4 152 112.3 262 Pattern 92 4 218 290.8 145 85.8 152.0 298.6 141.3 Pattern 5 92.0 138.0 Pattern 5 Pattern 5 145.3 Pattern 5 1994/6/221995/9/30 59.31997/8/18 82.0 94 166 123 194 92.1 124.0 146 87.1 Pattern 1 122.5 170.0 Pattern 2 Pattern 1 Pattern 2 169.9 Pattern 3 0.35 Pattern 4 0.52 2000/10/282004/11/29 227 149 155 160 129 142.0 191 141.9 Pattern 3 224 190.2 203.9 Pattern 4 1996/10/30 75 166 120.5 120.7 Pattern 3 Pattern 3 1998/10/22 271 197 234.0 233.8 Pattern 3 Pattern 5 1998/10/23 161 87 124.0 123.8 Pattern 3 Pattern 6 Srouce: Prepared Study by Team Date Sitio Taba
A - 19 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Annex T 3.13 Comparison of Arithmetic Mean Method and Thiessen Method (Two Day Rainfall) 0.43 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.37 0.41 0.50 0.50 0.46 0.19 0.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.480.56 0.09 0.140.22 0.09 0.37 0.39 Aries Nangka BosoBoso Mt.Oro n 0.30 0.14 0.09 0.13 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Mt.Cam pa k 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Climatic EFCOS EFCOS EFCOS EFCOS EFCOS Sitio Taba Pattern Thiessen Pattern Thiessen BMR 0.99 134.1 132.5 Pattern 2 Pattern 2 0.52 134.9 133.3 Pattern 2 Pattern 3 665 570.0 559.1 Pattern 8 88 193 140.5 140.8 Pattern 3 Pattern 4 183 308 245.5 245.8 Pattern 3 Pattern 8 108186 421212240 264.5 170276 161204 265.3 178.0 179 Pattern 3 186.5 327 178.0 209.5 Pattern 7 Pattern 3 85 186.4 301.5 Pattern 3 209.3 Pattern 144.5 3 301.6 Pattern 3 144.2 Pattern 3 305432 243 284 274.0 358.0 273.8 Pattern 3 357.6 Pattern 3 Pattern 5 Pattern 6 300 58 145.1 176.0 Pattern 1 Pattern 1 0.35 179 179 175405300 186279 375475 356 148 249 485 45 135 295 396 161.0 370 415.3 148 150.2 Pattern 267.8 5 428.4 242.8 Pattern 5 238.1 Pattern 5 230.5 Pattern 5 Aries Nangka BosoBoso Mt.Oro n 357294233 348161 346135 149195 276 185 305 174 160 220 338 139 236 204 191 193 267 190 191 159 317.2 224 184 274.4 128 316.3 191.4 305 Pattern 4 260.9 160.6 261 Pattern 4 205.8 195.4 Pattern 4 155.5 210.6 Pattern 4 205.9 Pattern 4 218.7 Pattern 4 Correlation Mt.Campa k Sitio Taba 2000/7/4 2000/7/5 2002/7/6 2002/7/7 2007/8/7 2007/8/8 2012/8/7 2012/8/8 2000/5/17 2000/5/18 2000/11/22001/7/18 2000/11/3 2001/7/19 2002/7/112003/5/27 2002/7/12 2003/5/28 2009/9/252011/6/23 2009/9/26 2011/9/26 2011/6/24 2011/9/27 2004/8/24 2004/8/25 2005/9/152006/7/23 2005/9/16 2006/7/24 2008/9/24 2008/9/25 1997/5/25 1997/5/26 1994/7/24 1994/7/25 77.2 1995/9/29 1995/9/30 89.2 1995/9/30 1995/10/1 90.8 2000/10/27 2000/10/28 2004/11/28 2004/11/29 1998/10/22 1998/10/23 1996/10/30 1996/10/31 Srouce: Prepared Study by Team Date From To Climatic EFCOS EFCOS EFCOS EFCOS EFCOS Thiessen Arithmetic
A - 20 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Annex T 3.14 Basin Mean Rainfall Depth with Arithmetic Mean Method and IDW Method
1 Day Rainfall 2 Day Rainfall Year Boso-BosoSitio Tabak Basin Mean Rainfall DateBoso-BosoSitio Tabak Basin Mean Rainfall Date Climatic Climatic Arithmetic IDW From To Climatic Climatic Arithmetic IDW 1978 1978/10/26 7.6 394.0 200.8 1978/10/26 1978/10/27 16.7 418.0 217.4 1979 1979/8/15 3.0 162.0 82.5 1979/8/14 1979/8/15 5.0 229.0 117.0 1980 1980/11/5 3.0 169.0 86.0 1980/11/4 1980/11/5 10.0 278.1 144.1 1981 1981/6/13 9.9 156.0 83.0 1981/7/3 1981/7/4 26.7 236.2 131.5 1982 1982/7/2 3.3 158.6 81.0 1982/7/14 1982/7/15 4.3 263.3 133.8 1983 1983/8/12 3.0 152.2 77.6 1983/8/14 1983/8/15 13.8 253.3 133.6 1984 1984/10/21 90.9 76.4 83.7 1984/10/20 1984/10/21 171.0 139.4 155.2 1985 1985/10/18 342.4 77.0 209.7 1985/6/27 1985/6/28 62.6 415.7 239.2 1986 1986/7/9 79.6 264.2 171.9 1986/7/9 1986/7/10 128.3 371.4 249.9 1987 1987/8/18 110.7 82.4 96.6 1987/8/17 1987/8/18 174.0 111.6 142.8 1988 1988/10/24 266.0 207.3 236.7 1988/10/24 1988/10/25 336.0 252.3 294.2 1989 1989/9/11 105.6 174.2 139.9 1989/9/11 1989/9/12 132.8 241.4 187.1 1990 1990/8/23 48.4 231.3 139.9 1990/7/27 1990/7/28 80.3 328.1 204.2 1991 1991/6/14 85.3 171.3 128.3 1991/8/15 1991/8/16 221.5 173.8 197.7 1992 1992/8/20 91.0 141.5 116.3 1992/8/19 1992/8/20 143.1 212.5 177.8 1993 1993/10/4 105.1 73.8 1993/10/4 1993/10/5 178.2 150.1
1999 1999/8/1 351.3 218.3 1999/8/1 1999/8/2 522.3 371.0 Srouce: Prepared by Study Team
A - 21 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Annex T 3.15 Correlation Analysis of Rainfall (1/2) 1 Day Number of Data 14571314192022272930313233343536373899 1 Port Area 21557 16175 17592 4024 11477 6154 10993 6839 2986 16734 2711 1874 1986 3436 3215 6424 6438 5389 5253 5569 12514 4 NAIA 16175 17149 13062 4026 7395 5775 7252 6158 2006 12459 1349 876 939 1865 1726 1823 1877 2323 2284 2429 8183 5 Scienec Garden 17592 13062 18435 4034 12138 6902 11655 7377 3017 17280 2712 1874 1986 3405 3184 6393 6408 5824 5675 6012 13175 7Tanay (Radar) 40244026403440344034385239744032193737680000000945100110494034 13 Boso-Boso Antipolo Rizal 11477 7395 12138 4034 12414 6904 11684 7424 3017 12075 2495 1874 1986 2491 2456 5557 5463 5604 5504 5793 12414 14Sitio Tabak Montalban Rizal 6154577569023852690469966907684128636717000009739142229228923716996 19 Pasig Elem. Sch. Pasig MM 10993 7252 11655 3974 11684 6907 11932 7534 3017 11593 2068 1781 1893 2033 2090 5041 4947 5250 5166 5445 11779 20Tipas Taguig MM 683961587377403274246841753476543016736600000109510362441252826167516 22Bureau of Soil, Cuyambay, Tanay, Rizal2986200630171937301728633017301630173015000006395801146119912633017 27 Angat Dam 16734 12459 17280 3768 12075 6717 11593 7366 3015 17711 2664 1871 1983 2941 2732 5970 5927 5790 5641 5977 12685 29 Science Garden 2711 1349 2712 0 2495 0 2068 0 0 2664 2712 1854 1957 2589 2458 2616 2617 1318 1284 1320 2681 30 Napindan 1874 876 1874 0 1874 0 1781 0 0 1871 1854 1874 1856 1871 1870 1871 1873 1102 1069 1104 1874 31 Mt.Campana 1986 939 1986 0 1986 0 1893 0 0 1983 1957 1856 1986 1925 1982 1984 1986 1122 1089 1125 1986 32 Aries 3436 1865 3405 0 2491 0 2033 0 0 2941 2589 1871 1925 3436 3154 3322 3373 1370 1336 1372 3436 33 Nangka 3215 1726 3184 0 2456 0 2090 0 0 2732 2458 1870 1982 3154 3215 3159 3185 1297 1264 1300 3215 34 BosoBoso 6424 1823 6393 0 5557 973 5041 1095 639 5970 2616 1871 1984 3322 3159 6424 6299 3613 3585 3640 6424 35 Mt.Oro 6438 1877 6408 0 5463 914 4947 1036 580 5927 2617 1873 1986 3373 3185 6299 6439 3584 3556 3613 6439 36 Sulipan 5389 2323 5824 945 5604 2229 5250 2441 1146 5790 1318 1102 1122 1370 1297 3613 3584 5824 5401 5617 5639 37 Ipo Dam 5253 2284 5675 1001 5504 2289 5166 2528 1199 5641 1284 1069 1089 1336 1264 3585 3556 5401 5675 5508 5539 38 San Rafael 5569 2429 6012 1049 5793 2371 5445 2616 1263 5977 1320 1104 1125 1372 1300 3640 3613 5617 5508 6012 5828 99 Arithmetic Mean (7 stations) 12514 8183 13175 4034 12414 6996 11779 7516 3017 12685 2681 1874 1986 3436 3215 6424 6439 5639 5539 5828 13483
Correlation Ratio 14571314192022272930313233343536373899 1 Port Area 1.00 0.79 0.83 0.07 0.52 0.65 0.61 0.69 0.46 0.55 0.76 0.73 0.65 0.71 0.71 0.67 0.69 0.52 0.55 0.56 0.70 4 NAIA 0.79 1.00 0.72 0.04 0.42 0.62 0.73 0.75 0.62 0.52 0.67 0.67 0.41 0.55 0.51 0.57 0.54 0.62 5 Scienec Garden 0.83 0.72 1.00 0.08 0.56 0.72 0.59 0.65 0.52 0.57 0.94 0.70 0.65 0.76 0.78 0.71 0.73 0.53 0.57 0.56 0.76 7 Tanay (Radar) 0.07 0.04 0.08 1.00 0.08 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.09 0.07 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.10 13 Boso-Boso Antipolo Rizal 0.52 0.42 0.56 0.08 1.00 0.43 0.46 0.39 0.59 0.47 0.51 0.54 0.65 0.64 0.56 0.79 0.63 0.40 0.47 0.44 0.83 14 Sitio Tabak Montalban Rizal 0.65 0.62 0.72 0.09 0.43 1.00 0.56 0.55 0.54 0.54 0.68 0.79 0.44 0.56 0.46 0.91 19 Pasig Elem. Sch. Pasig MM 0.61 0.73 0.59 0.07 0.46 0.56 1.00 0.77 0.48 0.48 0.50 0.58 0.57 0.58 0.52 0.54 0.50 0.35 0.44 0.40 0.56 20 Tipas Taguig MM 0.69 0.75 0.65 0.05 0.39 0.55 0.77 1.00 0.45 0.47 0.58 0.46 0.42 0.41 0.40 0.54 22 Bureau of Soil, Cuyambay, Tanay, Rizal 0.46 0.62 0.52 0.09 0.59 0.54 0.48 0.45 1.00 0.57 0.27 0.41 0.39 0.48 0.42 0.62 27 Angat Dam 0.55 0.52 0.57 0.07 0.47 0.54 0.48 0.47 0.57 1.00 0.49 0.57 0.66 0.60 0.58 0.57 0.67 0.51 0.74 0.60 0.60 29 Science Garden 0.76 0.94 0.51 0.50 0.49 1.00 0.68 0.63 0.71 0.78 0.70 0.66 0.38 0.49 0.41 0.76 30 Napindan 0.73 0.70 0.54 0.58 0.57 0.68 1.00 0.63 0.67 0.66 0.66 0.63 0.33 0.45 0.33 0.72 31 Mt.Campana 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.57 0.66 0.63 0.63 1.00 0.77 0.64 0.82 0.70 0.35 0.55 0.41 0.88 32 Aries 0.71 0.67 0.76 0.64 0.58 0.60 0.71 0.67 0.77 1.00 0.83 0.86 0.80 0.32 0.54 0.46 0.94 33 Nangka 0.71 0.67 0.78 0.56 0.52 0.58 0.78 0.66 0.64 0.83 1.00 0.73 0.73 0.39 0.58 0.44 0.87 34 BosoBoso 0.67 0.41 0.71 0.79 0.68 0.54 0.58 0.27 0.57 0.70 0.66 0.82 0.86 0.73 1.00 0.70 0.41 0.60 0.52 0.92 35 Mt.Oro 0.69 0.55 0.73 0.63 0.79 0.50 0.46 0.41 0.67 0.66 0.63 0.70 0.80 0.73 0.70 1.00 0.46 0.72 0.57 0.88 36 Sulipan 0.52 0.51 0.53 0.09 0.40 0.44 0.35 0.42 0.39 0.51 0.38 0.33 0.35 0.32 0.39 0.41 0.46 1.00 0.54 0.63 0.50 37 Ipo Dam 0.55 0.57 0.57 0.07 0.47 0.56 0.44 0.41 0.48 0.74 0.49 0.45 0.55 0.54 0.58 0.60 0.72 0.54 1.00 0.64 0.64 38 San Rafael 0.56 0.54 0.56 0.05 0.44 0.46 0.40 0.40 0.42 0.60 0.41 0.33 0.41 0.46 0.44 0.52 0.57 0.63 0.64 1.00 0.55 99 Arithmetic Mean (7 stations) 0.70 0.62 0.76 0.10 0.83 0.91 0.56 0.54 0.62 0.60 0.76 0.72 0.88 0.94 0.87 0.92 0.88 0.50 0.64 0.55 1.00
Slope of Formula (Y=aX) X 14571314192022272930313233343536373899 1 Port Area 1.00 0.85 0.77 0.15 0.60 0.55 0.71 0.68 0.46 0.51 0.68 0.75 0.53 0.72 0.74 0.69 0.67 0.72 0.56 0.73 0.78 4 NAIA 0.77 1.00 0.67 0.12 0.58 0.47 0.82 0.66 0.59 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.49 0.37 0.39 0.57 0.42 0.55 0.71 5 Scienec Garden 0.92 0.82 1.00 0.19 0.70 0.61 0.76 0.71 0.59 0.58 0.99 0.84 0.63 0.89 0.93 0.80 0.79 0.81 0.61 0.79 0.91 7 Tanay (Radar) 0.21 0.17 0.22 1.00 0.24 0.19 0.23 0.16 0.24 0.20 0.35 0.22 0.27 0.27 13 Boso-Boso Antipolo Rizal 0.54 0.37 0.54 0.16 1.00 0.32 0.53 0.34 0.59 0.45 0.48 0.65 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.76 0.64 0.63 0.47 0.60 0.83 14 Sitio Tabak Montalban Rizal 0.86 0.92 0.93 0.24 0.77 1.00 0.88 0.73 0.67 0.68 0.64 0.82 0.85 0.65 0.76 1.29 19 Pasig Elem. Sch. Pasig MM 0.59 0.69 0.53 0.14 0.49 0.42 1.00 0.66 0.47 0.45 0.50 0.62 0.48 0.53 0.50 0.49 0.48 0.53 0.44 0.54 0.58 20 Tipas Taguig MM 0.77 0.89 0.65 0.14 0.57 0.49 0.94 1.00 0.49 0.50 0.41 0.37 0.58 0.35 0.47 0.69 22 Bureau of Soil, Cuyambay, Tanay, Rizal 0.61 0.74 0.58 0.19 0.70 0.54 0.62 0.52 1.00 0.63 0.36 0.60 0.74 0.58 0.66 0.73 27 Angat Dam 0.70 0.70 0.65 0.18 0.62 0.52 0.64 0.54 0.63 1.00 0.54 0.83 0.73 0.67 0.67 0.60 0.69 0.81 0.76 0.82 0.75 29 Science Garden 0.90 0.00 0.91 0.66 0.61 0.54 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.77 0.88 0.74 0.70 0.65 0.54 0.74 0.93 30 Napindan 0.77 0.00 0.63 0.53 0.62 0.46 0.64 1.00 0.52 0.58 0.62 0.59 0.53 0.51 0.44 0.52 0.70 31 Mt.Campana 0.90 0.00 0.76 0.80 0.80 0.67 0.75 0.88 1.00 0.84 0.76 0.89 0.75 0.72 0.67 0.75 1.07 32 Aries 0.77 0.93 0.70 0.78 0.74 0.63 0.72 0.85 0.75 1.00 0.92 0.91 0.77 0.62 0.62 0.79 1.06 33 Nangka 0.75 0.96 0.70 0.66 0.64 0.59 0.74 0.79 0.62 0.79 1.00 0.75 0.68 0.63 0.57 0.68 0.94 34 BosoBoso 0.73 0.52 0.70 0.87 0.83 0.70 0.98 0.38 0.64 0.73 0.82 0.79 0.85 0.78 1.00 0.72 0.71 0.69 0.77 1.02 35 Mt.Oro 0.77 0.82 0.73 0.70 0.83 0.64 0.75 0.41 0.73 0.70 0.86 0.72 0.87 0.85 0.76 1.00 0.78 0.79 0.83 1.01 36 Sulipan 0.44 0.51 0.40 0.11 0.32 0.28 0.30 0.38 0.28 0.38 0.29 0.28 0.21 0.23 0.31 0.30 0.32 1.00 0.40 0.63 0.40 37 Ipo Dam 0.63 0.87 0.62 0.18 0.58 0.58 0.56 0.65 0.52 0.78 0.55 0.56 0.52 0.55 0.68 0.59 0.71 0.83 1.00 0.87 0.77 38 San Rafael 0.49 0.60 0.46 0.11 0.40 0.35 0.38 0.45 0.35 0.50 0.30 0.29 0.29 0.33 0.36 0.41 0.44 0.70 0.52 1.00 0.51 99 Arithmetic Mean (7 stations) 0.69 0.60 0.69 0.20 0.87 0.66 0.64 0.49 0.63 0.57 0.67 0.81 0.75 0.85 0.83 0.84 0.79 0.74 0.60 0.71 1.00 Srouce: Prepared by Study Team
A - 22 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Annex T 3.15 Correlation Analysis of Rainfall (2/2) 2 Day Number of Data 14571314192022272930313233343536373899 1 Port Area 21538 15826 17569 3993 11456 6130 10967 6820 2983 16661 2698 1862 1971 3425 3200 6407 6418 4848 4726 5024 12495 4 NAIA 15826 16814 12724 4001 7100 5761 7013 6147 2001 12105 1048 677 727 1551 1439 1505 1564 2027 1998 2127 7856 5 Scienec Garden 17569 12724 18428 4012 12130 6891 11641 7370 3013 17216 2700 1862 1971 3393 3168 6376 6387 5285 5148 5467 13168 7Tanay (Radar) 399340014012401240123828395040081928373700000008709239754012 13 Boso-Boso Antipolo Rizal 11456 7100 12130 4012 12408 6893 11670 7418 3013 12041 2483 1862 1971 2481 2446 5545 5444 5064 4979 5248 12408 14Sitio Tabak Montalban Rizal 6130576168913828689369876895682928576694000009719071995205521536987 19 Pasig Elem. Sch. Pasig MM 10967 7013 11641 3950 11670 6895 11921 7526 3013 11555 2054 1766 1875 2020 2078 5024 4923 4730 4667 4922 11768 20Tipas Taguig MM 682061477370400874186829752676503011734700000109310292178226523737512 22Bureau of Soil, Cuyambay, Tanay, Rizal298320013013192830132857301330113013300900000636573958101510923013 27 Angat Dam 16661 12105 17216 3737 12041 6694 11555 7347 3009 17652 2641 1857 1965 2906 2704 5923 5873 5234 5098 5416 12633 29 Science Garden 2698 1048 2700 0 2483 0 2054 0 0 2641 2700 1840 1933 2568 2438 2598 2600 1122 1096 1109 2668 30 Napindan 1862 677 1862 0 1862 0 1766 0 0 1857 1840 1862 1834 1856 1854 1856 1860 921 896 908 1862 31 Mt.Campana 1971 727 1971 0 1971 0 1875 0 0 1965 1933 1834 1971 1906 1963 1967 1971 938 913 926 1971 32 Aries 3425 1551 3393 0 2481 0 2020 0 0 2906 2568 1856 1906 3425 3134 3304 3360 1179 1151 1164 3425 33 Nangka 3200 1439 3168 0 2446 0 2078 0 0 2704 2438 1854 1963 3134 3200 3139 3170 1109 1083 1096 3200 34 BosoBoso 6407 1505 6376 0 5545 971 5024 1093 636 5923 2598 1856 1967 3304 3139 6407 6271 3220 3185 3228 6407 35 Mt.Oro 6418 1564 6387 0 5444 907 4923 1029 573 5873 2600 1860 1971 3360 3170 6271 6419 3188 3154 3199 6419 36 Sulipan 4848 2027 5285 870 5064 1995 4730 2178 958 5234 1122 921 938 1179 1109 3220 3188 5285 4870 5058 5101 37 Ipo Dam 4726 1998 5148 923 4979 2055 4667 2265 1015 5098 1096 896 913 1151 1083 3185 3154 4870 5148 4971 5016 38 San Rafael 5024 2127 5467 975 5248 2153 4922 2373 1092 5416 1109 908 926 1164 1096 3228 3199 5058 4971 5467 5285 99 Arithmetic Mean (7 stations) 12495 7856 13168 4012 12408 6987 11768 7512 3013 12633 2668 1862 1971 3425 3200 6407 6419 5101 5016 5285 13480
Correlation Ratio 14571314192022272930313233343536373899 1 Port Area 1.00 0.84 0.87 0.09 0.60 0.74 0.68 0.75 0.56 0.64 0.82 0.79 0.70 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.76 0.61 0.63 0.65 0.77 4 NAIA 0.84 1.00 0.79 0.06 0.48 0.71 0.79 0.80 0.71 0.59 0.75 0.77 0.50 0.68 0.60 0.61 0.59 0.70 5 Scienec Garden 0.87 0.79 1.00 0.11 0.64 0.79 0.67 0.72 0.61 0.65 0.97 0.76 0.71 0.83 0.84 0.77 0.80 0.61 0.65 0.64 0.82 7 Tanay (Radar) 0.09 0.06 0.11 1.00 0.10 0.11 0.10 0.07 0.12 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.07 0.13 13 Boso-Boso Antipolo Rizal 0.60 0.48 0.64 0.10 1.00 0.49 0.54 0.46 0.67 0.54 0.60 0.64 0.75 0.74 0.65 0.84 0.71 0.48 0.53 0.51 0.87 14 Sitio Tabak Montalban Rizal 0.74 0.71 0.79 0.11 0.49 1.00 0.64 0.64 0.62 0.60 0.72 0.80 0.55 0.62 0.53 0.91 19 Pasig Elem. Sch. Pasig MM 0.68 0.79 0.67 0.10 0.54 0.64 1.00 0.81 0.59 0.56 0.58 0.65 0.66 0.66 0.58 0.63 0.59 0.45 0.52 0.51 0.65 20 Tipas Taguig MM 0.75 0.80 0.72 0.07 0.46 0.64 0.81 1.00 0.55 0.56 0.65 0.54 0.51 0.46 0.48 0.62 22 Bureau of Soil, Cuyambay, Tanay, Rizal 0.56 0.71 0.61 0.12 0.67 0.62 0.59 0.55 1.00 0.64 0.34 0.50 0.46 0.54 0.50 0.69 27 Angat Dam 0.64 0.59 0.65 0.08 0.54 0.60 0.56 0.56 0.64 1.00 0.60 0.66 0.73 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.73 0.59 0.76 0.65 0.66 29 Science Garden 0.82 0.97 0.60 0.58 0.60 1.00 0.74 0.69 0.79 0.82 0.76 0.74 0.42 0.55 0.51 0.81 30 Napindan 0.79 0.76 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.74 1.00 0.72 0.74 0.72 0.74 0.70 0.36 0.50 0.41 0.78 31 Mt.Campana 0.70 0.71 0.75 0.66 0.73 0.69 0.72 1.00 0.84 0.72 0.86 0.76 0.35 0.56 0.46 0.91 32 Aries 0.79 0.75 0.83 0.74 0.66 0.69 0.79 0.74 0.84 1.00 0.87 0.89 0.85 0.35 0.55 0.50 0.96 33 Nangka 0.77 0.77 0.84 0.65 0.58 0.66 0.82 0.72 0.72 0.87 1.00 0.77 0.79 0.41 0.61 0.52 0.90 34 BosoBoso 0.75 0.50 0.77 0.84 0.72 0.63 0.65 0.34 0.64 0.76 0.74 0.86 0.89 0.77 1.00 0.75 0.49 0.66 0.60 0.93 35 Mt.Oro 0.76 0.68 0.80 0.71 0.80 0.59 0.54 0.50 0.73 0.74 0.70 0.76 0.85 0.79 0.75 1.00 0.55 0.77 0.66 0.91 36 Sulipan 0.61 0.60 0.61 0.09 0.48 0.55 0.45 0.51 0.46 0.59 0.42 0.36 0.35 0.35 0.41 0.49 0.55 1.00 0.62 0.68 0.58 37 Ipo Dam 0.63 0.61 0.65 0.09 0.53 0.62 0.52 0.46 0.54 0.76 0.55 0.50 0.56 0.55 0.61 0.66 0.77 0.62 1.00 0.71 0.69 38 San Rafael 0.65 0.59 0.64 0.07 0.51 0.53 0.51 0.48 0.50 0.65 0.51 0.41 0.46 0.50 0.52 0.60 0.66 0.68 0.71 1.00 0.62 99 Arithmetic Mean (7 stations) 0.77 0.70 0.82 0.13 0.87 0.91 0.65 0.62 0.69 0.66 0.81 0.78 0.91 0.96 0.90 0.93 0.91 0.58 0.69 0.62 1.00
Slope of Formula (Y=aX) X 14571314192022272930313233343536373899 1 Port Area 1.00 0.91 0.82 0.21 0.67 0.61 0.78 0.73 0.54 0.59 0.75 0.84 0.57 0.79 0.79 0.75 0.74 0.83 0.66 0.87 0.82 4 NAIA 0.81 1.00 0.73 0.17 0.64 0.53 0.87 0.71 0.65 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.57 0.59 0.49 0.52 0.67 0.45 0.62 0.76 5 Scienec Garden 0.97 0.90 1.00 0.25 0.77 0.67 0.85 0.80 0.68 0.68 1.02 0.96 0.69 0.96 0.98 0.86 0.87 0.95 0.72 0.95 0.95 7 Tanay (Radar) 0.29 0.24 0.29 1.00 0.29 0.25 0.31 0.22 0.32 0.27 0.46 0.32 0.41 0.33 13 Boso-Boso Antipolo Rizal 0.65 0.45 0.63 0.22 1.00 0.37 0.64 0.42 0.69 0.53 0.60 0.83 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.83 0.75 0.77 0.55 0.73 0.86 14 Sitio Tabak Montalban Rizal 0.98 1.06 1.01 0.32 0.85 1.00 1.00 0.85 0.77 0.75 0.68 0.87 1.10 0.77 0.95 1.26 19 Pasig Elem. Sch. Pasig MM 0.67 0.76 0.61 0.20 0.57 0.48 1.00 0.71 0.58 0.53 0.60 0.74 0.56 0.61 0.59 0.58 0.57 0.66 0.53 0.67 0.65 20 Tipas Taguig MM 0.82 0.94 0.72 0.20 0.64 0.56 0.97 1.00 0.60 0.58 0.47 0.46 0.70 0.40 0.58 0.76 22 Bureau of Soil, Cuyambay, Tanay, Rizal 0.76 0.88 0.68 0.26 0.78 0.62 0.75 0.63 1.00 0.72 0.44 0.72 0.87 0.68 0.84 0.79 27 Angat Dam 0.80 0.82 0.74 0.24 0.68 0.60 0.74 0.65 0.70 1.00 0.66 0.96 0.79 0.74 0.76 0.67 0.74 0.91 0.78 0.90 0.80 29 Science Garden 0.96 0.00 0.93 0.73 0.68 0.67 1.00 0.91 0.65 0.82 0.91 0.79 0.77 0.77 0.63 0.97 0.94 30 Napindan 0.81 0.00 0.66 0.58 0.65 0.53 0.68 1.00 0.57 0.61 0.64 0.64 0.57 0.59 0.50 0.71 0.70 31 Mt.Campana 0.98 0.00 0.83 0.86 0.90 0.76 0.84 1.03 1.00 0.92 0.86 0.94 0.82 0.82 0.74 0.97 1.07 32 Aries 0.85 1.02 0.77 0.86 0.82 0.74 0.81 0.99 0.81 1.00 0.97 0.95 0.81 0.72 0.65 0.96 1.04 33 Nangka 0.83 1.05 0.77 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.80 0.90 0.68 0.83 1.00 0.78 0.75 0.74 0.62 0.88 0.95 34 BosoBoso 0.82 0.57 0.76 0.91 0.88 0.80 1.07 0.51 0.74 0.81 0.96 0.83 0.87 0.84 1.00 0.78 0.86 0.79 0.93 1.01 35 Mt.Oro 0.86 0.94 0.80 0.77 0.81 0.73 0.83 0.51 0.81 0.79 0.99 0.78 0.93 0.91 0.81 1.00 0.94 0.87 0.98 1.01 36 Sulipan 0.52 0.62 0.46 0.12 0.38 0.33 0.38 0.47 0.33 0.45 0.32 0.30 0.21 0.26 0.32 0.34 0.38 1.00 0.46 0.70 0.45 37 Ipo Dam 0.71 0.98 0.69 0.24 0.64 0.62 0.65 0.74 0.57 0.82 0.61 0.63 0.51 0.58 0.72 0.63 0.74 0.94 1.00 0.98 0.80 38 San Rafael 0.56 0.67 0.51 0.15 0.45 0.38 0.48 0.53 0.40 0.55 0.35 0.34 0.29 0.34 0.39 0.45 0.51 0.73 0.58 1.00 0.54 99 Arithmetic Mean (7 stations) 0.79 0.71 0.77 0.27 0.91 0.68 0.75 0.59 0.72 0.65 0.76 0.95 0.80 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.84 0.90 0.69 0.85 1.00 Srouce: Prepared by Study Team
A - 23 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Annex T 3.16 Basin Mean Rainfall with Linear Regression Method 1 Day Rainfall 2 Day Rainfall Year Selected Station Point Rainfall Date Point Rainfall Date aBMR a BMR Depth From To Depth 1949 Port Area 1949/6/19 66.5 0.69 45.9 1949/6/19 1949/6/20 90.9 0.82 74.5 1950 Port Area 1950/10/2 105.4 0.69 72.7 1950/10/2 1950/10/3 121.7 0.82 99.8 1951 Port Area 1951/7/31 99.1 0.69 68.4 1951/7/30 1951/7/31 134.4 0.82 110.2 1952 Port Area 1952/8/5 156.5 0.69 108.0 1952/8/4 1952/8/5 246.9 0.82 202.5 1953 Port Area 1953/6/4 208.0 0.69 143.5 1953/6/3 1953/6/4 283.7 0.82 232.6 1954 Port Area 1954/6/21 108.7 0.69 75.0 1954/8/14 1954/8/15 147.5 0.82 121.0 1955 Port Area 1955/9/23 177.3 0.69 122.3 1955/9/22 1955/9/23 178.6 0.82 146.5 1956 Port Area 1956/9/7 185.9 0.69 128.3 1956/9/6 1956/9/7 252.7 0.82 207.2 1957 Port Area 1957/8/16 132.3 0.69 91.3 1957/8/16 1957/8/17 178.5 0.82 146.4 1958 Port Area 1958/7/14 239.8 0.69 165.5 1958/7/13 1958/7/14 414.8 0.82 340.1 1959 Port Area 1959/11/17 130.6 0.69 90.1 1959/11/16 1959/11/17 156.8 0.82 128.6 1960 Port Area 1960/5/27 218.2 0.69 150.6 1960/8/13 1960/8/14 271.8 0.82 222.9 1961 Port Area 1961/6/27 236.2 0.69 163.0 1961/6/26 1961/6/27 331.2 0.82 271.6 1962 Scienec Garden 1962/7/19 191.0 0.60 114.6 1962/7/19 1962/7/20 293.6 0.95 278.9 1963 Scienec Garden 1963/6/27 114.8 0.60 68.9 1963/6/27 1963/6/28 169.6 0.95 161.1 1964 Scienec Garden 1964/6/29 193.4 0.60 116.0 1964/6/29 1964/6/30 259.5 0.95 246.5 1965 Scienec Garden 1965/7/26 159.8 0.60 95.9 1965/7/26 1965/7/27 239.3 0.95 227.3 1966 Scienec Garden 1966/11/20 169.9 0.60 101.9 1966/5/19 1966/5/20 282.3 0.95 268.2 1967 Scienec Garden 1967/6/7 334.5 0.60 200.7 1967/6/7 1967/6/8 350.0 0.95 332.5 1968 Scienec Garden 1968/8/28 145.5 0.60 87.3 1968/9/28 1968/9/29 205.0 0.95 194.8 1969 Scienec Garden 1969/8/1 102.8 0.60 61.7 1969/8/1 1969/8/2 172.7 0.95 164.1 1970 Not Available Not Available 1971 Port Area 1971/11/14 99.1 0.69 68.4 1971/11/13 1971/11/14 99.1 0.69 68.4 1972 Port Area 1972/7/18 265.4 0.69 183.1 1972/7/18 1972/7/19 487.9 0.69 336.7 1973 Scienec Garden 1973/6/20 131.3 0.60 78.8 1973/6/19 1973/6/20 145.3 0.95 138.0 1974 Scienec Garden 1974/8/17 214.3 0.60 128.6 1974/8/16 1974/8/17 339.3 0.95 322.3 1975 Scienec Garden 1975/10/18 209.3 0.60 125.6 1975/10/17 1975/10/18 215.9 0.95 205.1 1976 NAIA 1976/8/10 256.0 0.69 176.6 1976/8/9 1976/8/10 299.7 0.76 227.8 1977 NAIA 1977/8/19 199.0 0.69 137.3 1977/9/11 1977/9/12 275.5 0.76 209.4
2010 Scienec Garden 2010/8/5 122.0 0.60 73.2 2010/9/1 2010/9/2 188.2 0.95 178.8 BMR: Masin Mean Rainfall
Srouce: Prepared by Study Team
A - 24 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Annex T 3.17 Annual Maximum Basin Mean Rainfall Depth 1 Day Rainfall 2 Day Rainfall Year Date Depth Type Date Depth Type 1949 1949/6/19 45.9 Regression 1949/6/19 74.5 Regression 1950 1950/10/2 72.7 Regression 1950/10/2 99.8 Regression 1951 1951/7/31 68.4 Regression 1951/7/30 110.2 Regression 1952 1952/8/5 108.0 Regression 1952/8/4 202.5 Regression 1953 1953/6/4 143.5 Regression 1953/6/3 232.6 Regression 1954 1954/6/21 75.0 Regression 1954/8/14 121.0 Regression 1955 1955/9/23 122.3 Regression 1955/9/22 146.5 Regression 1956 1956/9/7 128.3 Regression 1956/9/6 207.2 Regression 1957 1957/8/16 91.3 Regression 1957/8/16 146.4 Regression 1958 1958/7/14 165.5 Regression 1958/7/13 340.1 Regression 1959 1959/11/17 90.1 Regression 1959/11/16 128.6 Regression 1960 1960/5/27 150.6 Regression 1960/8/13 222.9 Regression 1961 1961/6/27 163.0 Regression 1961/6/26 271.6 Regression 1962 1962/7/19 114.6 Regression 1962/7/19 278.9 Regression 1963 1963/6/27 68.9 Regression 1963/6/27 161.1 Regression 1964 1964/6/29 116.0 Regression 1964/6/29 246.5 Regression 1965 1965/7/26 95.9 Regression 1965/7/26 227.3 Regression 1966 1966/11/20 101.9 Regression 1966/5/19 268.2 Regression 1967 1967/6/7 200.7 Regression 1967/6/7 332.5 Regression 1968 1968/8/28 87.3 Regression 1968/9/28 194.8 Regression 1969 1969/8/1 61.7 Regression 1969/8/1 164.1 Regression 1970 Not Available Not Available 1971 1971/11/14 68.4 Regression 1971/11/13 68.4 Regression 1972 1972/7/18 183.1 Regression 1972/7/18 336.7 Regression 1973 1973/6/20 78.8 Regression 1973/6/19 138.0 Regression 1974 1974/8/17 128.6 Regression 1974/8/16 322.3 Regression 1975 1975/10/18 125.6 Regression 1975/10/17 205.1 Regression 1976 1976/8/10 176.6 Regression 1976/8/9 227.8 Regression 1977 1977/8/19 137.3 Regression 1977/9/11 209.4 Regression 1978 1978/10/26 200.8 Arithmetic Mean 1978/10/26 217.4 Arithmetic Mean 1979 1979/8/15 82.5 Arithmetic Mean 1979/8/14 117.0 Arithmetic Mean 1980 1980/11/5 86.0 Arithmetic Mean 1980/11/4 144.1 Arithmetic Mean 1981 1981/6/13 83.0 Arithmetic Mean 1981/7/3 131.5 Arithmetic Mean 1982 1982/7/2 81.0 Arithmetic Mean 1982/7/14 133.8 Arithmetic Mean 1983 1983/8/12 77.6 Arithmetic Mean 1983/8/14 133.6 Arithmetic Mean 1984 1984/10/21 83.7 Arithmetic Mean 1984/10/20 155.2 Arithmetic Mean 1985 1985/10/18 209.7 Arithmetic Mean 1985/6/27 239.2 Arithmetic Mean 1986 1986/7/9 171.9 Arithmetic Mean 1986/7/9 249.9 Arithmetic Mean 1987 1987/8/18 96.6 Arithmetic Mean 1987/8/17 142.8 Arithmetic Mean 1988 1988/10/24 236.7 Arithmetic Mean 1988/10/24 294.2 Arithmetic Mean 1989 1989/9/11 139.9 Arithmetic Mean 1989/9/11 187.1 Arithmetic Mean 1990 1990/8/23 139.9 Arithmetic Mean 1990/7/27 204.2 Arithmetic Mean 1991 1991/6/14 128.3 Arithmetic Mean 1991/8/15 197.7 Arithmetic Mean 1992 1992/8/20 116.3 Arithmetic Mean 1992/8/19 177.8 Arithmetic Mean 1993 1993/10/4 73.8 Inverse Distance Weighted 1993/10/4 150.1 Inverse Distance Weighted 1994 1994/6/22 92.1 Arithmetic Mean 1994/7/24 145.1 Arithmetic Mean 1995 1995/9/30 124.0 Arithmetic Mean 1995/9/30 134.9 Arithmetic Mean 1996 1996/10/30 120.5 Arithmetic Mean 1996/10/30 140.5 Arithmetic Mean 1997 1997/8/18 170.0 Arithmetic Mean 1997/5/25 274.0 Arithmetic Mean 1998 1998/10/22 234.0 Arithmetic Mean 1998/10/22 358.0 Arithmetic Mean 1999 1999/8/1 218.3 Inverse Distance Weighted 1999/8/1 371.0 Inverse Distance Weighted 2000 2000/7/7 178.0 Arithmetic Mean 2000/5/17 264.5 Arithmetic Mean 2001 2001/8/17 127.5 Arithmetic Mean 2001/7/18 209.5 Arithmetic Mean 2002 2002/7/7 156.5 Arithmetic Mean 2002/7/6 301.5 Arithmetic Mean 2003 2003/5/27 189.4 Arithmetic Mean 2003/5/27 317.2 Arithmetic Mean 2004 2004/11/29 190.2 Arithmetic Mean 2004/8/24 274.4 Arithmetic Mean 2005 2005/9/15 111.0 Arithmetic Mean 2005/9/15 160.6 Arithmetic Mean 2006 2006/7/23 109.8 Arithmetic Mean 2006/7/23 195.4 Arithmetic Mean 2007 2007/8/7 126.6 Arithmetic Mean 2007/8/7 210.6 Arithmetic Mean 2008 2008/8/20 85.8 Arithmetic Mean 2008/9/24 161.0 Arithmetic Mean 2009 2009/9/26 290.8 Arithmetic Mean 2009/9/25 415.3 Arithmetic Mean 2010 2010/8/5 73.2 Regression 2010/9/1 178.8 Regression 2011 2011/6/24 152.0 Arithmetic Mean 2011/6/23 267.8 Arithmetic Mean 2012 2012/8/7 271.7 Arithmetic Mean 2012/8/7 570.0 Arithmetic Mean n 63.0 63.0 Max 290.8 570.0 Min 45.9 68.4 Mean 130.1 214.4 SD 53.9 89.4 Skewness 0.9 1.2 Srouce: Prepared by Study Team A - 25 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Annex T 3.18 Type of Weather Disturbance (1/4) Event Name Year Rank Date Satellite Image Typhoon Track Cause International Name PAGASA Name 1951 1 1951/7/31 Not Available Available Tropical Depression LOUISE 1951 2 1951/11/28 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1952 1 1952/8/5 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1952 2 1952/8/7 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1952 3 1952/6/21 Not Available Available Tropical Depression DINAH 1953 1 1953/6/4 Not Available Available Tropical Depression JUDY 1953 2 1953/8/20 Not Available Available Tropical Depression PHYLLIS 1953 3 1953/9/21 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1954 1 1954/6/21 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1954 2 1954/8/14 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1954 3 1954/11/8 Not Available Available Tropical Depression RUBY 1955 1 1955/9/23 Not Available Available Tropical Depression KATE 1955 2 1955/8/6 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1956 1 1956/9/7 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1956 2 1956/8/1 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1956 3 1956/9/21 Not Available Available Tropical Depression GILDA 1957 1 1957/8/16 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1957 2 1957/10/12 Not Available Available Tropical Depression NO-NAME 1958 1 1958/7/14 Not Available Available Tropical Depression BETTY 1958 2 1958/7/13 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1959 1 1959/11/17 Not Available Available Tropical Depression FREDA 1959 2 1959/8/27 Not Available Available Tropical Depression KATE 1959 3 1959/8/14 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1960 1 1960/5/27 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1960 2 1960/10/13 Not Available Available Tropical Depression LOLA 1961 1 1961/6/27 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1961 2 1961/7/12 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1961 3 1961/6/26 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1961 4 1961/8/28 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1961 5 1961/9/21 Not Available Available Tropical Depression RUBY 1962 1 1962/7/19 Not Available Available Tropical Depression KATE 1962 2 1962/7/23 Not Available Available Tropical Depression KATE 1962 3 1962/9/5 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1963 1 1963/6/27 Not Available Available Tropical Depression TRIX DIDING 1963 2 1963/8/6 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1964 1 1964/6/29 Not Available Available Tropical Depression WINNIE DADING 1964 2 1964/8/22 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1965 1 1965/7/26 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1965 2 1965/6/22 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1965 3 1965/8/23 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1965 4 1965/7/27 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1965 5 1965/9/2 Not Available Available Tropical Depression ROSE UNDING 1966 1 1966/11/20 Not Available Available Tropical Depression NANCY 1966 2 1966/5/20 Not Available Available Tropical Depression IRMA KLARING 1966 3 1966/5/19 Not Available Available Tropical Depression IRMA KLARING 1966 4 1966/5/23 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1967 1 1967/6/7 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1967 2 1967/6/2 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1967 3 1967/7/21 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1967 4 1967/6/3 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1967 5 1967/9/3 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1967 6 1967/8/15 Not Available Available Tropical Depression IRIS 1968 1 1968/8/28 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1968 2 1968/9/28 Not Available Available Tropical Depression ELAINE NITANG Srouce: Prepared by Study Team A - 26 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Annex T 3.18 Type of Weather Disturbance (2/4) Event Name Year Rank Date Satellite Image Typhoon Track Cause International Name PAGASA Name 1969 1 1969/8/1 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1969 2 1969/8/2 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1969 3 1969/9/11 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1969 4 1969/8/26 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1969 5 1969/9/7 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1969 6 1969/10/2 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1969 7 1969/8/6 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1969 8 1969/10/1 Not Available Available Tropical Depression FLOSSIE OPENG 1971 1 1971/11/14 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1971 2 1971/10/12 Not Available Available Tropical Depression FAYE DADANG 1972 1 1972/7/18 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1972 2 1972/7/19 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1972 3 1972/7/20 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1972 4 1972/7/31 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1972 5 1972/7/17 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1972 6 1972/8/1 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1972 7 1972/7/30 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1972 8 1972/7/7 Not Available Available Tropical Depression SUSAN EDENG 1973 1 1973/6/20 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1973 2 1973/10/15 Not Available Available Tropical Depression RUTH NARSING 1974 1 1974/8/17 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1974 2 1974/8/29 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1974 3 1974/8/10 Not Available Available Tropical Depression LUCY MIDING 1975 1 1975/10/18 Not Available Available Tropical Depression FLOSSIE 1975 2 1975/8/9 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1976 1 1976/8/10 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1976 2 1976/5/19 Not Available Available Tropical Depression OLGA DIDANG 1977 1 1977/8/19 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1977 2 1977/9/11 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1977 3 1977/11/14 Not Available Available Tropical Depression KIM UNDING 1978 1 1978/10/26 Not Available Available Tropical Depression RITA KADING 1978 2 1978/10/9 Not Available Available Tropical Depression NINA TERING 1978 3 1978/8/13 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1979 1 1979/8/15 Available Monsoon and Others 1979 2 1979/5/30 Available Monsoon and Others 1979 3 1979/7/26 Available Monsoon and Others 1979 4 1979/8/13 Available Monsoon and Others 1979 5 1979/5/14 Available Tropical Depression DOT KATRING 1980 1 1980/11/5 Not Available Available Tropical Depression BETTY ARING 1980 2 1980/11/4 Not Available Available Tropical Depression BETTY ARING 1980 3 1980/7/20 Not Available Monsoon and Others 1981 1 1981/6/13 Available Monsoon and Others 1981 2 1981/7/4 Available Available Tropical Depression LYNN ELANG 1982 1 1982/7/2 Available Monsoon and Others 1982 2 1982/7/15 Available Tropical Depression WINONA EMANG 1983 1 1983/8/12 Available Monsoon and Others 1983 2 1983/8/15 Available Monsoon and Others 1983 3 1983/8/14 Available Monsoon and Others 1983 4 1983/8/11 Available Monsoon and Others 1983 5 1983/10/10 Available Monsoon and Others 1983 6 1983/7/15 Available Available Tropical Depression VERA BEBENG 1984 1 1984/10/21 Available Monsoon and Others 1984 2 1984/8/7 Available Monsoon and Others 1984 3 1984/8/6 Available Monsoon and Others 1984 4 1984/10/20 Available Monsoon and Others 1984 5 1984/10/22 Available Monsoon and Others 1984 6 1984/9/25 Available Monsoon and Others 1984 7 1984/8/16 Available Monsoon and Others 1984 8 1984/6/16 Available Monsoon and Others 1984 9 1984/8/21 Available Monsoon and Others 1984 10 1984/6/21 Available Monsoon and Others Srouce: Prepared by Study Team
A - 27 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Annex T 3.18 Type of Weather Disturbance (3/4) Event Name Year Rank Date Satellite Image Typhoon Track Cause International Name PAGASA Name 1985 1 1985/10/18 Available Available Tropical Depression DOT SALING 1985 2 1985/6/28 Available Monsoon and Others 1986 1 1986/7/9 Available Available Tropical Depression PEGGY GADING 1986 2 1986/9/1 Available Available Tropical Depression WAYNE MIDING 1986 3 1986/10/5 Available Monsoon and Others 1987 1 1987/8/18 Available Available Tropical Depression CARY ISING 1987 2 1987/8/29 Available Monsoon and Others 1988 1 1988/10/24 Available Available Tropical Depression RUBY UNSANG 1988 2 1988/6/2 Available Monsoon and Others 1989 1 1989/9/11 Available Available Tropical Depression SARAH OPENG 1989 2 1989/5/17 Available Available Tropical Depression BRENDA BINING 1989 3 1989/7/20 Available Monsoon and Others 1990 1 1990/8/23 Available Monsoon and Others 1990 2 1990/7/28 Available Available Tropical Depression TASHA EMANG 1991 1 1991/6/14 Available Available Tropical Depression YUNYA DIDING 1991 2 1991/7/26 Available Monsoon and Others 1992 1 1992/8/20 Available Monsoon and Others 1992 2 1992/9/21 Available Available Tropical Depression TED MARING 1993 1 1993/10/4 Available Available Tropical Depression FLO KADIANG 1993 2 1993/10/5 Available Available Tropical Depression FLO KADIANG 1993 3 1993/7/29 Available Monsoon and Others 1994 1 1994/6/22 Available Available Tropical Depression SHARON GADING 1994 2 1994/10/21 Available Monsoon and Others 1995 1 1995/9/30 Available Available Tropical Depression SIBYL MAMENG 1995 2 1995/7/28 Available Monsoon and Others 1996 1 1996/10/30 Available Monsoon and Others 1996 2 1996/9/9 Available Monsoon and Others 1996 3 1996/9/16 Available Monsoon and Others 1996 4 1996/7/25 Available Available Tropical Depression GLORIA GLORING 1997 1 1997/8/18 Available Monsoon and Others 1997 2 1997/5/26 Available Tropical Depression LEVI BINING 1998 1 1998/10/22 Available Available Tropical Depression BABS LOLENG 1998 2 1998/9/18 Available Available Tropical Depression VICKI 1998 3 1998/10/23 Available Available Tropical Depression BABS LOLENG 1998 4 1998/9/17 Available Available Tropical Depression VICKI 1998 5 1998/12/27 Available Monsoon and Others 1999 1 1999/8/1 Available Monsoon and Others 1999 2 1999/8/2 Available Monsoon and Others 1999 3 1999/10/16 Available Tropical Depression EVE RENING 2000 1 2000/7/7 Available Available Tropical Depression KAI-TAK EDENG 2000 2 2000/7/5 Available Available Tropical Depression KAI-TAK EDENG 2000 3 2000/11/2 Available Available Tropical Depression BEBINCA SENIANG 2000 4 2000/5/18 Available Monsoon and Others 2001 1 2001/8/17 Available Monsoon and Others 2001 2 2001/7/19 Available Monsoon and Others 2001 3 2001/7/18 Available Monsoon and Others 2001 4 2001/5/10 Available Monsoon and Others 2001 5 2001/8/23 Available Monsoon and Others 2001 6 2001/8/15 Available Monsoon and Others 2001 7 2001/9/20 Available Monsoon and Others 2001 8 2001/5/9 Available Monsoon and Others 2001 9 2001/7/2 Available Monsoon and Others 2001 10 2001/7/5 Available Available Tropical Depression UTOR FERIA 2002 1 2002/7/7 Available Monsoon and Others 2002 2 2002/7/6 Available Monsoon and Others 2002 3 2002/7/12 Available Monsoon and Others 2002 4 2002/8/13 Available Monsoon and Others 2002 5 2002/7/5 Available Monsoon and Others 2002 6 2002/11/9 Available Monsoon and Others 2002 7 2002/7/20 Available Tropical Depression 13W JUAN Srouce: Prepared by Study Team
A - 28 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Annex T 3.18 Type of Weather Disturbance (4/4) Event Name Year Rank Date Satellite Image Typhoon Track Cause International Name PAGASA Name 2003 1 2003/5/27 Available Available Tropical Depression LINFA CHEDENG 2003 2 2003/9/2 Available Monsoon and Others 2004 1 2004/11/29 Available Available Tropical Depression NAMADOL WINNIE 2004 2 2004/8/24 Available Monsoon and Others 2005 1 2005/9/15 Available Monsoon and Others 2005 2 2005/10/27 Available Monsoon and Others 2005 3 2005/7/5 Available Monsoon and Others 2005 4 2005/9/3 Available Monsoon and Others 2005 5 2005/6/23 Available Monsoon and Others 2005 6 2005/6/4 Available Monsoon and Others 2005 7 2005/8/5 Available Monsoon and Others 2005 8 2005/8/4 Available Monsoon and Others 2005 9 2005/9/16 Available Tropical Depression VICENTE 2005 10 2005/8/11 Available Available Tropical Depression SANVU 2006 1 2006/7/23 Available Available Tropical Depression KAEMI GLENDA 2006 2 2006/7/24 Available Available Tropical Depression KAEMI GLENDA 2006 3 2006/7/28 Available Monsoon and Others 2007 1 2007/8/7 Available Monsoon and Others 2007 2 2007/8/17 Available Monsoon and Others 2007 3 2007/8/8 Available Monsoon and Others 2007 4 2007/8/6 Available Monsoon and Others 2007 5 2007/10/23 Available Monsoon and Others 2007 6 2007/5/29 Available Monsoon and Others 2007 7 2007/11/21 Available Monsoon and Others 2007 8 2007/7/5 Available Monsoon and Others 2007 9 2007/9/29 Available Monsoon and Others 2007 10 2007/9/28 Available Monsoon and Others 2008 1 2008/8/20 Available Available Tropical Depression NURI KAREN 2008 2 2008/9/25 Available Monsoon and Others 2009 1 2009/9/26 Available Available Tropical Depression KETSANA ONDOY 2009 2 2009/9/25 Available Available Tropical Depression KETSANA ONDOY 2009 3 2009/5/7 Available Available Tropical Depression CHAN-HOM 2009 4 2009/10/2 Available Available Tropical Depression PARMA 2009 5 2009/10/30 Available Available Tropical Depression MIRINAE 2009 6 2009/7/27 Available Monsoon and Others 2010 1 2010/8/5 Available Monsoon and Others 2010 2 2010/9/2 Available Monsoon and Others 2010 3 2010/7/25 Available Monsoon and Others 2010 4 2010/10/27 Available Monsoon and Others 2010 5 2010/8/26 Available Monsoon and Others 2010 6 2010/7/13 Available Available Tropical Depression CONSON 2011 1 2011/6/24 Available Available Tropical Depression MEARI FALCON 2011 2 2011/9/27 Available Available Tropical Depression NESAT PEDRING 2011 3 2011/6/23 Available Available Tropical Depression MEARI FALCON 2011 4 2011/9/26 Available Available Tropical Depression NESAT PEDRING 2011 5 2011/11/5 Available Monsoon and Others 2012 1 2012/8/7 Available Monsoon and Others 2012 2 2012/8/6 Available Monsoon and Others 2012 3 2012/8/8 Available Monsoon and Others 2012 4 2012/7/27 Available Monsoon and Others 2012 5 2012/9/15 Available Monsoon and Others 2012 6 2012/8/5 Available Monsoon and Others 2012 7 2012/7/29 Available Monsoon and Others 2012 8 2012/7/21 Available Monsoon and Others 2012 9 2012/7/2 Available Monsoon and Others 2012 10 2012/6/17 Available Monsoon and Others Srouce: Prepared by Study Team
A - 29 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Annex T 3.19 Annual Maximum Basin Mean Rainfall considering Type of Weather Disturbance Case Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4 Duration 1 Day 1 Day 1 Day 2 Day Meteorological Tropical Depression Monsoon and Others All All Type Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall BMR BMR BMR Meteorolo BMR Year Date Depth Date Depth Date Depth Date Depth Type Type Type gical Type Type [mm] [mm] [mm] [mm] 1949 1949/6/19 45.9 Reg 1949/6/19 74.5 Reg 1950 1950/10/2 72.7 Reg 1950/10/2 99.8 Reg 1951 1951/7/31 68.4 Reg 1951/11/28 64.0 Reg 1951/7/31 68.4 Reg T 1951/7/30 110.2 Reg 1952 1952/6/21 95.4 Reg 1952/8/5 108.0 Reg 1952/8/5 108.0 Reg M 1952/8/4 202.5 Reg 1953 1953/6/4 143.5 Reg 1953/9/21 79.4 Reg 1953/6/4 143.5 Reg T 1953/6/3 232.6 Reg 1954 1954/11/8 65.0 Reg 1954/6/21 75.0 Reg 1954/6/21 75.0 Reg M 1954/8/14 121.0 Reg 1955 1955/9/23 122.3 Reg 1955/8/6 54.3 Reg 1955/9/23 122.3 Reg T 1955/9/22 146.5 Reg 1956 1956/9/21 76.9 Reg 1956/9/7 128.3 Reg 1956/9/7 128.3 Reg M 1956/9/6 207.2 Reg 1957 1957/10/12 76.9 Reg 1957/8/16 91.3 Reg 1957/8/16 91.3 Reg M 1957/8/16 146.4 Reg 1958 1958/7/14 165.5 Reg 1958/7/13 120.8 Reg 1958/7/14 165.5 Reg T 1958/7/13 340.1 Reg 1959 1959/11/17 90.1 Reg 1959/8/14 61.1 Reg 1959/11/17 90.1 Reg T 1959/11/16 128.6 Reg 1960 1960/10/13 99.9 Reg 1960/5/27 150.6 Reg 1960/5/27 150.6 Reg M 1960/8/13 222.9 Reg 1961 1961/9/21 58.7 Reg 1961/6/27 163.0 Reg 1961/6/27 163.0 Reg M 1961/6/26 271.6 Reg 1962 1962/7/19 114.6 Reg 1962/9/5 84.4 Reg 1962/7/19 114.6 Reg T 1962/7/19 278.9 Reg 1963 1963/6/27 68.9 Reg 1963/8/6 51.4 Reg 1963/6/27 68.9 Reg T 1963/6/27 161.1 Reg 1964 1964/6/29 116.0 Reg 1964/8/22 77.0 Reg 1964/6/29 116.0 Reg T 1964/6/29 246.5 Reg 1965 1965/9/2 46.2 Reg 1965/7/26 95.9 Reg 1965/7/26 95.9 Reg M 1965/7/26 227.3 Reg 1966 1966/11/20 101.9 Reg 1966/5/23 68.9 Reg 1966/11/20 101.9 Reg T 1966/5/19 268.2 Reg 1967 1967/8/15 61.0 Reg 1967/6/7 200.7 Reg 1967/6/7 200.7 Reg M 1967/6/7 332.5 Reg 1968 1968/9/28 84.9 Reg 1968/8/28 87.3 Reg 1968/8/28 87.3 Reg M 1968/9/28 194.8 Reg 1969 1969/10/1 26.8 Reg 1969/8/1 61.7 Reg 1969/8/1 61.7 Reg M 1969/8/1 164.1 Reg 1970 Not Available Not Available Not Available Not Available 1971 1971/10/12 50.4 Reg 1971/11/14 68.4 Reg 1971/11/14 68.4 Reg M 1971/11/13 68.4 Reg 1972 1972/7/7 66.3 Reg 1972/7/18 183.1 Reg 1972/7/18 183.1 Reg M 1972/7/18 336.7 Reg 1973 1973/10/15 65.6 Reg 1973/6/20 78.8 Reg 1973/6/20 78.8 Reg M 1973/6/19 138.0 Reg 1974 1974/8/10 82.1 Reg 1974/8/17 128.6 Reg 1974/8/17 128.6 Reg M 1974/8/16 322.3 Reg 1975 1975/10/18 125.6 Reg 1975/8/9 84.5 Reg 1975/10/18 125.6 Reg T 1975/10/17 205.1 Reg 1976 1976/5/19 122.7 Reg 1976/8/10 176.6 Reg 1976/8/10 176.6 Reg M 1976/8/9 227.8 Reg 1977 1977/11/14 84.0 Reg 1977/8/19 137.3 Reg 1977/8/19 137.3 Reg M 1977/9/11 209.4 Reg 1978 1978/10/26 200.8 AM 1978/8/13 100.2 AM 1978/10/26 200.8 AM T 1978/10/26 217.4 AM 1979 1979/5/14 57.8 AM 1979/8/15 82.5 AM 1979/8/15 82.5 AM M 1979/8/14 117.0 AM 1980 1980/11/5 86.0 AM 1980/7/20 52.5 AM 1980/11/5 86.0 AM T 1980/11/4 144.1 AM 1981 1981/7/4 79.8 AM 1981/6/13 83.0 AM 1981/6/13 83.0 AM M 1981/7/3 131.5 AM 1982 1982/7/15 74.1 AM 1982/7/2 81.0 AM 1982/7/2 81.0 AM M 1982/7/14 133.8 AM 1983 1983/7/15 44.7 AM 1983/8/12 77.6 AM 1983/8/12 77.6 AM M 1983/8/14 133.6 AM 1984 Not Available 1984/10/21 83.7 AM 1984/10/21 83.7 AM M 1984/10/20 155.2 AM 1985 1985/10/18 209.7 AM 1985/6/28 155.6 AM 1985/10/18 209.7 AM T 1985/6/27 239.2 AM 1986 1986/7/9 171.9 AM 1986/10/5 129.6 IDW 1986/7/9 171.9 AM T 1986/7/9 249.9 AM 1987 1987/8/18 96.6 AM 1987/8/29 88.2 AM 1987/8/18 96.6 AM T 1987/8/17 142.8 AM 1988 1988/10/24 236.7 AM 1988/6/2 85.5 AM 1988/10/24 236.7 AM T 1988/10/24 294.2 AM 1989 1989/9/11 139.9 AM 1989/7/20 80.8 AM 1989/9/11 139.9 AM T 1989/9/11 187.1 AM 1990 1990/7/28 138.7 AM 1990/8/23 139.9 AM 1990/8/23 139.9 AM M 1990/7/27 204.2 AM 1991 1991/6/14 128.3 AM 1991/7/26 123.4 AM 1991/6/14 128.3 AM T 1991/8/15 197.7 AM 1992 1992/9/21 104.2 AM 1992/8/20 116.3 AM 1992/8/20 116.3 AM M 1992/8/19 177.8 AM 1993 1993/10/4 73.8 IDW 1993/7/29 68.6 AM 1993/10/4 73.8 IDW T 1993/10/4 150.1 IDW 1994 1994/6/22 92.1 AM 1994/10/21 85.1 AM 1994/6/22 92.1 AM T 1994/7/24 145.1 AM 1995 1995/9/30 124.0 AM 1995/7/28 103.9 AM 1995/9/30 124.0 AM T 1995/9/30 134.9 AM 1996 1996/7/25 69.9 AM 1996/10/30 120.5 AM 1996/10/30 120.5 AM M 1996/10/30 140.5 AM 1997 1997/5/26 161.5 AM 1997/8/18 170.0 AM 1997/8/18 170.0 AM M 1997/5/25 274.0 AM 1998 1998/10/22 234.0 AM 1998/12/27 74.5 AM 1998/10/22 234.0 AM T 1998/10/22 358.0 AM 1999 1999/10/16 139.2 IDW 1999/8/1 218.3 IDW 1999/8/1 218.3 IDW M 1999/8/1 371.0 IDW 2000 2000/7/7 178.0 AM 2000/5/18 143.5 AM 2000/7/7 178.0 AM T 2000/5/17 264.5 AM 2001 2001/7/5 51.0 AM 2001/8/17 127.5 AM 2001/8/17 127.5 AM M 2001/7/18 209.5 AM 2002 2002/7/20 73.5 AM 2002/7/7 156.5 AM 2002/7/7 156.5 AM M 2002/7/6 301.5 AM 2003 2003/5/27 189.4 AM 2003/9/2 132.4 AM 2003/5/27 189.4 AM T 2003/5/27 317.2 AM 2004 2004/11/29 190.2 AM 2004/8/24 138.0 AM 2004/11/29 190.2 AM T 2004/8/24 274.4 AM 2005 2005/9/16 49.6 AM 2005/9/15 111.0 AM 2005/9/15 111.0 AM M 2005/9/15 160.6 AM 2006 2006/7/23 109.8 AM 2006/7/28 78.2 AM 2006/7/23 109.8 AM T 2006/7/23 195.4 AM 2007 Not Available 2007/8/7 126.6 AM 2007/8/7 126.6 AM M 2007/8/7 210.6 AM 2008 2008/8/20 85.8 AM 2008/9/25 84.3 AM 2008/8/20 85.8 AM T 2008/9/24 161.0 AM 2009 2009/9/26 290.8 AM 2009/7/27 63.3 AM 2009/9/26 290.8 AM T 2009/9/25 415.3 AM 2010 2010/7/13 44.5 Reg 2010/8/5 73.2 Reg 2010/8/5 73.2 Reg M 2010/9/1 178.8 Reg 2011 2011/6/24 152.0 AM 2011/11/5 80.3 AM 2011/6/24 152.0 AM T 2011/6/23 267.8 AM 2012 2012/8/7 271.7 AM 2012/8/7 271.7 AM M 2012/8/7 570.0 AM n 586163 63 Max 290.8 271.7 290.8 570.0 Min 26.8 51.4 45.9 68.4 Mean 109.6 108.0 130.1 214.4 SD 55.6 44.1 53.9 89.4 Skewness 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.2 Reg: Regression, AM: Arithmetic Mean, IDW: Inverse Distance Weighted T: Tropical Depression, M: Monsoon and Others BMR: Basin Mean Rainfall SD: Standard Deviation
Srouce: Prepared by Study Team
A - 30 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Annex T 3.20 Probable Rainfall Depth considering Type of Weather Disturbance (1/4)
Case Case 1 Duration 1 Day Meteorological Type Tropical Depression Sample Type Annual Maximum Rainfall Model Exp Gumbel SqrtEt Gev LP3Rs LogP3 Iwai IshiTaka LN3Q LN3PM LN2LM LN2PM LN4PM Sample Number 58 1/2 91.0 100.4 95.8 97.0 100.2 － 96.8 99.1 98.2 99.4 97.3 97.3 98.7 1/3 115.6 123.8 118.7 119.4 124.5 － 120.0 122.2 120.9 122.6 120.8 120.4 121.9 1/5 146.6 150.0 146.5 146.1 151.3 － 147.5 148.4 147.1 148.7 148.4 147.5 148.3 1/10 188.6 182.8 185.1 182.1 183.9 － 184.3 181.7 181.0 181.9 184.9 183.3 181.6 1/20 230.6 214.3 225.8 219.6 213.9 － 221.7 214.2 214.6 214.0 221.8 219.3 213.3 Probable 1/30 255.2 232.4 250.9 242.5 230.6 － 244.1 233.1 234.4 232.7 243.9 240.8 231.3 Rainfall 1/50 286.2 255.0 283.9 272.6 251.0 － 273.1 257.1 259.7 256.2 272.3 268.4 253.5 1/80 314.6 275.7 315.7 301.7 269.1 － 300.6 279.3 283.3 278.0 299.1 294.4 273.6 1/100 328.2 285.5 331.3 316.1 277.5 － 314.0 289.9 294.7 288.4 312.1 307.0 283.0 1/150 352.8 303.3 360.4 343.0 292.5 － 338.8 309.4 315.6 307.5 336.2 330.4 299.8 1/200 370.2 316.0 381.8 362.8 302.9 － 356.8 323.4 330.7 321.1 353.6 347.3 311.7 1/400 412.2 346.3 435.4 413.1 327.4 － 401.8 357.6 367.9 354.4 397.1 389.3 339.6 1/2 91.0 100.4 95.7 96.9 98.8 － 96.1 99.4 101.2 99.9 97.1 97.1 98.5 1/3 115.6 123.8 119.0 119.5 123.1 － 119.6 123.1 123.9 123.9 120.5 120.2 122.0 1/5 146.6 150.0 147.4 146.3 150.5 － 147.6 149.8 148.2 150.5 147.9 147.3 148.7 1/10 188.6 182.8 186.7 182.6 184.8 － 185.2 183.3 176.9 183.6 184.2 183.1 182.5 1/20 230.6 214.3 228.2 220.1 217.3 － 223.6 215.5 202.5 215.1 220.7 219.0 214.6 Jackknife 1/30 255.2 232.4 253.8 242.9 235.7 － 246.6 234.0 216.2 233.0 242.5 240.3 232.8 Unbiased 1/50 286.2 255.0 287.4 272.7 258.4 － 276.5 257.2 232.5 255.4 270.5 267.8 255.4 Estimator 1/80 314.6 275.7 319.8 301.2 278.9 － 304.8 278.5 246.3 275.9 296.9 293.7 275.8 1/100 328.2 285.5 335.8 315.2 288.4 － 318.6 288.6 252.6 285.6 309.7 306.2 285.4 1/150 352.8 303.3 365.5 341.1 305.6 － 344.1 307.0 263.4 303.2 333.4 329.4 302.5 1/200 370.2 316.0 387.3 360.1 317.7 － 362.6 320.1 270.5 315.7 350.5 346.1 314.6 1/400 412.2 346.3 442.1 407.4 346.2 － 408.9 351.9 286.3 345.9 393.1 387.7 343.1 1/2 5.9 6.6 6.2 7.4 7.4 － 7.3 7.8 7.9 7.8 6.3 6.3 6.5 1/3 7.8 8.6 8.3 9.4 9.5 － 8.8 9.7 9.4 9.7 8.2 8.1 8.3 1/5 10.8 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.8 － 10.9 11.7 10.9 11.7 11.2 10.9 11.0 1/10 15.3 14.7 16.2 14.7 15.0 － 14.7 14.7 15.6 14.7 16.1 15.5 14.9 1/20 19.9 18.1 21.7 19.2 18.6 － 20.0 18.4 24.9 18.4 21.9 21.0 19.0 Jackknife 1/30 22.7 20.1 25.2 22.9 21.1 － 23.7 21.2 32.4 21.1 25.6 24.5 21.4 Estimate 1/50 26.2 22.7 29.9 29.0 24.9 － 29.2 25.2 43.8 25.1 30.7 29.3 24.5 Error 1/80 29.4 25.0 34.6 36.2 28.8 － 34.9 29.6 56.1 29.3 35.8 34.0 27.2 1/100 30.9 26.1 36.9 40.1 30.9 － 37.8 31.9 62.6 31.5 38.3 36.4 28.5 1/150 33.7 28.1 41.2 48.4 35.0 － 43.6 36.3 75.4 35.8 43.1 41.0 30.8 1/200 35.7 29.6 44.4 55.0 38.1 － 48.0 39.8 85.2 39.1 46.7 44.3 32.4 1/400 40.5 33.0 52.6 74.1 46.4 － 59.6 48.9 111.8 47.9 55.9 53.0 36.1 SLSC 0.030 0.022 0.021 0.020 0.029 － 0.020 0.022 0.021 0.023 0.019 0.020 0.021 X-Cor 0.990 0.994 0.992 0.994 0.995 － 0.995 0.996 0.996 0.996 0.996 0.996 0.997 P-Cor 0.978 0.994 0.998 0.997 0.995 － 0.998 0.996 0.997 0.996 0.998 0.998 0.997 Selection Selected Srouce: Prepared by Study Team
A - 31 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Annex T 3.20 Probable Rainfall Depth considering Type of Weather Disturbance (2/4)
Case Case 2 Duration 1 Day Meteorological Type Monsoon and Others Sample Type Annual Maximum Rainfall Model Exp Gumbel SqrtEt Gev LP3Rs LogP3 Iwai IshiTaka LN3Q LN3PM LN2LM LN2PM LN4PM Sample Number 61 1/2 93.5 100.8 97.5 97.5 － 97.7 98.6 98.5 95.0 98.7 －－－ 1/3 112.6 119.0 114.3 114.8 － 115.1 116.2 116.2 113.2 116.5 －－－ 1/5 136.7 139.3 134.4 135.5 － 136.1 136.8 136.9 136.4 137.2 －－－ 1/10 169.3 164.8 161.7 164.0 － 164.6 163.8 164.1 169.7 164.3 －－－ 1/20 201.9 189.3 190.0 194.2 － 194.4 190.9 191.4 205.9 191.3 －－－ Probable 1/30 221.0 203.3 207.2 213.0 － 212.7 207.0 207.6 228.7 207.3 －－－ Rainfall 1/50 245.1 220.9 229.7 238.0 － 236.8 227.6 228.4 259.1 227.8 －－－ 1/80 267.2 237.0 251.1 262.4 － 260.1 247.1 248.0 289.0 247.0 －－－ 1/100 277.7 244.6 261.6 274.6 － 271.7 256.5 257.5 303.8 256.3 －－－ 1/150 296.8 258.4 281.2 297.6 － 293.4 273.8 275.0 331.9 273.4 －－－ 1/200 310.4 268.2 295.4 314.6 － 309.5 286.4 287.7 352.8 285.7 －－－ 1/400 343.0 291.8 331.0 358.6 － 350.5 317.5 319.2 406.3 316.3 －－－ 1/2 93.5 100.8 97.4 97.4 － 97.7 97.2 98.3 88.1 98.8 －－－ 1/3 112.6 119.0 114.3 114.8 － 115.3 115.0 116.6 109.0 117.5 －－－ 1/5 136.7 139.3 134.6 135.7 － 136.2 136.4 138.0 139.9 138.9 －－－ 1/10 169.3 164.8 162.1 164.5 － 164.6 165.1 165.9 189.9 166.4 －－－ 1/20 201.9 189.3 190.7 194.8 － 194.0 194.5 193.5 250.2 193.3 －－－ Jackknife 1/30 221.0 203.3 208.0 213.5 － 211.8 212.2 209.7 290.5 208.9 －－－ Unbiased 1/50 245.1 220.9 230.7 238.1 － 235.2 235.1 230.3 346.9 228.6 －－－ Estimator 1/80 267.2 237.0 252.4 262.0 － 257.6 256.9 249.5 404.7 246.8 －－－ 1/100 277.7 244.6 263.0 273.7 － 268.6 267.4 258.7 434.1 255.4 －－－ 1/150 296.8 258.4 282.7 295.6 － 289.1 287.1 275.5 491.2 271.3 －－－ 1/200 310.4 268.2 297.1 311.7 － 304.1 301.3 287.6 534.5 282.6 －－－ 1/400 343.0 291.8 333.0 352.3 － 342.0 336.9 317.3 649.1 310.2 －－－ 1/2 4.4 5.0 4.8 5.7 － 5.4 5.2 5.8 5.6 5.9 －－－ 1/3 6.1 6.7 6.4 7.2 － 6.8 6.5 7.3 6.6 7.3 －－－ 1/5 8.6 8.9 8.5 9.0 － 8.6 8.5 8.9 8.4 9.0 －－－ 1/10 12.3 11.8 11.7 11.7 － 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.8 12.1 －－－ 1/20 16.2 14.7 15.2 16.2 － 16.5 16.2 16.7 19.8 16.7 －－－ Jackknife 1/30 18.4 16.3 17.4 19.9 － 20.0 19.2 20.3 25.0 20.3 －－－ Estimate 1/50 21.3 18.4 20.4 26.2 － 25.4 23.4 25.6 33.0 25.5 －－－ Error 1/80 23.9 20.3 23.2 33.5 － 31.4 27.8 31.3 41.5 31.0 －－－ 1/100 25.2 21.2 24.7 37.6 － 34.6 30.0 34.2 46.0 33.9 －－－ 1/150 27.5 22.9 27.3 46.1 － 41.0 34.3 40.0 55.0 39.5 －－－ 1/200 29.1 24.1 29.3 53.0 － 46.1 37.5 44.4 61.9 43.8 －－－ 1/400 33.1 26.9 34.2 72.8 － 60.2 46.1 56.1 80.7 55.1 －－－ SLSC 0.027 0.032 0.027 0.025 － 0.027 0.029 0.029 0.031 0.030 －－－ X-Cor 0.991 0.989 0.994 0.994 － 0.994 0.994 0.994 0.990 0.994 －－－ P-Cor 0.982 0.985 0.988 0.989 － 0.989 0.988 0.989 0.991 0.988 －－－ Selection Selected Srouce: Prepared by Study Team
A - 32 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Annex T 3.20 Probable Rainfall Depth considering Type of Weather Disturbance (3/4)
Case Case 3 Duration 1 Day Meteorological Type All Sample Type Annual Maximum Rainfall Model Exp Gumbel SqrtEt Gev LP3Rs LogP3 Iwai IshiTaka LN3Q LN3PM LN2LM LN2PM LN4PM Sample Number 63 1/2 111.8 121.0 117.2 119.6 122.6 － 118.5 121.6 121.3 121.8 120.1 120.1 121.5 1/3 136.0 144.2 140.1 142.4 146.3 － 141.6 144.5 143.8 144.9 143.4 142.9 144.4 1/5 166.6 169.9 167.6 168.4 171.7 － 168.5 169.7 168.6 170.0 169.8 168.7 169.5 1/10 208.0 202.3 205.2 202.2 202.1 － 203.7 200.9 199.4 201.0 203.5 201.4 200.0 1/20 249.4 233.3 244.5 235.7 229.7 － 238.9 230.3 228.7 230.1 236.3 233.3 228.2 Probable 1/30 273.7 251.2 268.5 255.5 244.9 － 259.7 247.1 245.4 246.6 255.4 251.8 244.0 Rainfall 1/50 304.2 273.5 299.9 280.8 263.3 － 286.4 268.0 266.3 267.2 279.6 275.1 263.2 1/80 332.3 293.9 330.1 304.5 279.6 － 311.5 287.0 285.5 285.9 302.0 296.8 280.4 1/100 345.7 303.6 344.8 315.9 287.1 － 323.7 296.1 294.6 294.8 312.8 307.1 288.4 1/150 369.9 321.2 372.3 336.9 300.6 － 346.1 312.5 311.1 310.9 332.5 326.1 302.6 1/200 387.1 333.6 392.4 352.1 310.0 － 362.2 324.2 322.9 322.3 346.6 339.7 312.6 1/400 428.5 363.6 442.7 389.3 332.0 － 402.3 352.5 351.4 349.9 381.2 372.9 336.0 1/2 111.8 121.0 117.1 119.5 121.6 － 117.2 121.9 124.6 122.3 119.9 119.9 121.4 1/3 136.0 144.2 140.3 142.4 145.4 － 140.7 145.3 147.1 145.7 143.2 142.8 144.5 1/5 166.6 169.9 168.2 168.6 171.3 － 168.6 170.7 170.4 171.0 169.5 168.5 169.9 1/10 208.0 202.3 206.4 202.6 202.8 － 205.8 201.8 197.3 201.9 203.0 201.3 200.8 1/20 249.4 233.3 246.3 236.1 231.8 － 243.4 230.8 220.8 230.5 235.6 233.1 229.3 Jackknife 1/30 273.7 251.2 270.7 255.8 248.1 － 265.9 247.3 233.5 246.6 254.6 251.5 245.3 Unbiased 1/50 304.2 273.5 302.6 280.7 267.9 － 294.9 267.6 248.4 266.5 278.5 274.8 264.8 Estimator 1/80 332.3 293.9 333.2 303.9 285.6 － 322.3 286.0 261.4 284.5 300.8 296.4 282.2 1/100 345.7 303.6 348.2 315.0 293.9 － 335.6 294.7 267.3 293.0 311.4 306.7 290.3 1/150 369.9 321.2 376.2 335.2 308.7 － 360.2 310.4 277.6 308.2 330.9 325.6 304.7 1/200 387.1 333.6 396.6 349.6 319.0 － 378.0 321.5 284.6 319.0 344.9 339.1 314.8 1/400 428.5 363.6 447.7 384.6 343.4 － 422.3 348.1 300.7 344.9 379.0 372.1 338.6 1/2 5.7 6.2 6.1 7.4 7.2 － 6.9 7.4 7.0 7.4 6.1 6.1 6.3 1/3 7.2 7.8 7.9 9.0 8.8 － 8.1 8.8 8.5 8.8 7.7 7.6 7.8 1/5 9.6 9.9 10.6 10.5 10.5 － 10.0 10.4 10.0 10.3 10.1 9.9 9.9 1/10 13.3 12.8 14.8 12.8 12.8 － 13.4 12.6 12.9 12.6 13.8 13.3 12.9 1/20 17.2 15.7 19.4 16.5 15.4 － 18.2 15.4 17.6 15.4 17.9 17.2 15.9 Jackknife 1/30 19.5 17.4 22.3 19.5 17.2 － 21.7 17.4 21.3 17.3 20.5 19.6 17.6 Estimate 1/50 22.5 19.5 26.3 24.6 19.9 － 26.7 20.3 27.0 20.2 24.0 22.9 19.7 Error 1/80 25.2 21.5 30.1 30.4 22.7 － 31.9 23.4 33.0 23.1 27.4 26.0 21.7 1/100 26.5 22.4 32.1 33.6 24.1 － 34.6 25.0 36.2 24.7 29.0 27.6 22.6 1/150 28.9 24.1 35.7 40.1 27.0 － 39.8 28.1 42.4 27.6 32.2 30.5 24.2 1/200 30.6 25.3 38.3 45.3 29.2 － 43.8 30.5 47.1 29.9 34.5 32.7 25.3 1/400 34.6 28.2 45.0 59.7 35.0 － 54.2 36.7 59.7 35.8 40.3 38.1 27.9 SLSC 0.040 0.020 0.027 0.022 0.032 － 0.024 0.027 0.026 0.027 0.024 0.024 0.026 X-Cor 0.982 0.995 0.988 0.994 0.995 － 0.993 0.995 0.995 0.995 0.995 0.995 0.996 P-Cor 0.975 0.996 0.996 0.996 0.995 － 0.996 0.995 0.995 0.995 0.996 0.996 0.996 Selection Selected Srouce: Prepared by Study Team
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The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Annex T 3.20 Probable Rainfall Depth considering Type of Weather Disturbance (4/4)
Case Case 4 Duration 2 Day Meteorological Type All Sample Type Annual Maximum Rainfall Model Exp Gumbel SqrtEt Gev LP3Rs LogP3 Iwai IshiTaka LN3Q LN3PM LN2LM LN2PM LN4PM Sample Number 63 1/2 184.8 199.8 194.5 198.5 198.9 － 198.9 － 198.8 196.7 197.9 197.9 － 1/3 224.0 237.1 234.0 235.5 236.6 － 236.5 － 236.2 233.4 235.9 235.8 － 1/5 273.3 278.8 281.8 277.4 278.8 － 278.7 － 277.9 275.4 278.9 278.7 － 1/10 340.3 331.1 347.3 331.0 331.7 － 331.8 － 330.5 329.6 333.8 333.3 － 1/20 407.3 381.2 415.9 383.3 382.4 － 382.8 － 381.0 383.0 387.1 386.5 － Probable 1/30 446.4 410.1 457.8 413.9 411.6 － 412.3 － 410.2 414.2 418.1 417.4 － Rainfall 1/50 495.8 446.2 512.8 452.5 448.1 － 449.4 － 446.9 454.0 457.4 456.5 － 1/80 541.2 479.2 565.6 488.3 481.6 － 483.5 － 480.7 491.1 493.8 492.7 － 1/100 562.8 494.8 591.4 505.5 497.5 － 499.8 － 496.8 509.0 511.2 510.0 － 1/150 601.9 523.2 639.7 536.8 526.6 － 529.6 － 526.2 541.7 543.1 541.8 － 1/200 629.7 543.3 674.9 559.2 547.2 － 550.9 － 547.2 565.3 565.9 564.5 － 1/400 696.7 591.7 763.2 613.7 597.4 － 602.7 － 598.4 623.3 621.9 620.3 － 1/2 184.8 199.8 194.4 198.3 392.7 － 202.6 － 195.7 195.2 197.6 197.6 － 1/3 224.0 237.1 234.7 235.7 466.3 － 239.6 － 234.2 233.9 235.5 235.6 － 1/5 273.3 278.8 283.5 278.1 550.9 － 279.2 － 278.3 278.2 278.4 278.6 － 1/10 340.3 331.1 350.3 332.1 659.9 － 326.3 － 335.0 334.9 333.0 333.4 － 1/20 407.3 381.2 420.3 384.3 766.8 － 369.1 － 390.2 389.8 385.9 386.5 － Jackknife 1/30 446.4 410.1 463.2 414.4 829.2 － 392.8 － 422.3 421.5 416.7 417.3 － Unbiased 1/50 495.8 446.2 519.4 452.0 908.1 － 421.6 － 462.9 461.3 455.5 456.3 － Estimator 1/80 541.2 479.2 573.3 486.3 981.2 － 447.2 － 500.5 497.8 491.5 492.4 － 1/100 562.8 494.8 599.8 502.4 1016.1 － 459.1 － 518.5 515.1 508.7 509.7 － 1/150 601.9 523.2 649.1 531.5 1079.9 － 480.4 － 551.3 546.6 540.1 541.3 － 1/200 629.7 543.3 685.1 551.9 1125.5 － 495.3 － 574.8 569.0 562.7 563.9 － 1/400 696.7 591.7 775.4 600.3 1236.5 － 530.2 － 632.1 623.1 617.8 619.3 － 1/2 9.4 10.3 9.9 11.4 196.1 － 10.4 － 10.1 12.4 10.2 10.2 － 1/3 12.0 13.1 12.4 13.5 233.3 － 12.6 － 11.3 13.8 12.4 12.4 － 1/5 16.5 17.1 16.8 16.4 274.9 － 16.3 － 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.3 － 1/10 23.6 22.6 23.9 22.8 327.4 － 23.3 － 26.5 24.4 22.6 22.7 － 1/20 31.0 28.1 32.2 33.3 378.3 － 32.3 － 40.5 38.5 30.0 30.1 － Jackknife 1/30 35.4 31.3 37.5 41.5 407.9 － 38.5 － 49.7 48.8 34.7 34.8 － Estimate 1/50 41.0 35.4 44.6 53.8 445.5 － 47.3 － 62.4 63.7 41.0 41.2 － Error 1/80 46.3 39.1 51.6 67.2 480.5 － 56.1 － 75.0 79.0 47.1 47.3 － 1/100 48.8 40.9 55.1 74.2 497.3 － 60.6 － 81.2 86.8 50.1 50.4 － 1/150 53.3 44.2 61.7 88.0 528.2 － 69.2 － 93.1 101.7 55.8 56.1 － 1/200 56.5 46.5 66.6 98.6 550.4 － 75.7 － 101.8 113.0 60.0 60.4 － 1/400 64.3 52.1 79.0 127.1 605.1 － 92.4 － 124.1 142.2 70.7 71.1 － SLSC 0.041 0.027 0.030 0.024 0.024 － 0.023 － 0.024 0.032 0.024 0.024 － X-Cor 0.981 0.992 0.991 0.993 0.992 － 0.992 － 0.992 0.993 0.993 0.993 － P-Cor 0.943 0.996 0.996 0.996 0.997 － 0.997 － 0.997 0.996 0.997 0.997 － Selection Selected Srouce: Prepared by Study Team
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The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Annex T 3.21 Thiessen Coefficient (1/2)
Hourly Rainfall No Date Event Name Pattern Science GaNapindan Mt.CampanAries Nangka BosoBoso Mt.Oro 1 2009/9/26 Ondoy Available Available Available Available Available Pattern 9 2 2012/8/7 Monsoon Rain Available Available Available Pattern 6 3 1998/10/22 Loleng Available Available Pattern 3 4 2004/11/29 Winnie Available Available Available Available Available Available Available Pattern 10 5 2003/5/27 Chedeng Available Available Available Available Available Available Available Pattern 10 6 2000/7/7 Edeng Available Available Pattern 3 7 1997/8/18 Monsoon Rain Available Available Pattern 3 8 2002/7/7 Monsoon Rain Available Available Pattern 3 9 2011/6/24 Falcon Available Available Available Available Pattern 5 10 2000/11/2 Seniang Available Available Pattern 3
Pattern 3 Thiessen Coefficient Sub-basin Science GaNapindan Mt.CampanAries Nangka BosoBoso Mt.Oro M-1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.64 0.36 M-5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.74 M-4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.93 0.07 M-3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.32 0.68 M-2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 M-7 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 M-6 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 M-8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 M-9 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 S-9 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 S-8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.99 0.01 S-7 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.49 0.51 S-5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 S-3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 S-4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 S-2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 S-1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 S-6 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.66 0.34 S-10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 Pattern 5 Thiessen Coefficient Sub-basin Science GaNapindan Mt.CampanAries Nangka BosoBoso Mt.Oro M-1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.62 0.35 M-5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 M-4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.53 0.13 0.34 0.00 M-3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.47 0.37 0.01 0.16 M-2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.98 M-7 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 M-6 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 M-8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 M-9 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 S-9 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 S-8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 S-7 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 S-5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 S-3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 S-4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 S-2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 S-1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 S-6 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 S-10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00
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The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Annex T 3.21 Thiessen Coefficient (2/2) Pattern 6 Thiessen Coefficient Sub-basin Science GaNapindan Mt.CampanAries Nangka BosoBoso Mt.Oro M-1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.62 0.35 M-5 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 M-4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.66 0.00 0.34 0.00 M-3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.71 0.00 0.01 0.28 M-2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.98 M-7 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 M-6 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 M-8 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 M-9 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S-9 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S-8 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S-7 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S-5 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S-3 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S-4 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S-2 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S-1 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S-6 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S-10 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Pattern 9 Thiessen Coefficient Sub-basin Science GaNapindan Mt.CampanAries Nangka BosoBoso Mt.Oro M-1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.62 0.35 M-5 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.94 0.00 0.00 M-4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.53 0.13 0.34 0.00 M-3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.47 0.37 0.01 0.16 M-2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.98 M-7 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 M-6 0.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.00 M-8 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 M-9 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S-9 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S-8 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S-7 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S-5 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S-3 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S-4 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S-2 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S-1 0.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.00 0.00 S-6 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S-10 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Pattern 10 Thiessen Coefficient Sub-basin Science GaNapindan Mt.CampanAries Nangka BosoBoso Mt.Oro M-1 0.00 0.00 0.56 0.04 0.00 0.18 0.23 M-5 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.94 0.00 0.00 M-4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.53 0.13 0.34 0.00 M-3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.47 0.37 0.01 0.16 M-2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.98 M-7 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 M-6 0.71 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.00 M-8 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 M-9 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S-9 0.18 0.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S-8 0.62 0.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S-7 0.99 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S-5 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S-3 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S-4 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S-2 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S-1 0.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.00 0.00 S-6 0.99 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S-10 0.01 0.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
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The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Source: Prepared by the Study Team Annex F 3.1 Index of Collected Topographic Maps
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The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Pacific_typhoon_seasons
Source: http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/ Annex F 3.2 Examples of Typhoon Records (upper: Wikipedia, lower: Digital Typhoon)
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Source: EFCOS Annex F 3.3 Example of EFCOS Flood Summary Reports (1/3)
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Source: EFCOS Annex F 3.3 Example of EFCOS Flood Summary Reports (2/3)
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The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Source: EFCOS Annex F 3.3 Example of EFCOS Flood Summary Reports (3/3)
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The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
[Legend] EFCOS MWSS NPC PAGASA PRBFFWC
No Station Name No Station Name No Station Name No Station Name 1 Port Area 11 San Pedro, Laguna 21 Polo, Valenzuela, M.M. 31 Mt.Campana 2 Tayabas Quezon 12 Sta Cruz Laguna 22 Bureau of Soil, Cuyambay, 32 Aries Tanay, Rizal 3 Sangley Point Cavite 13 Boso-Boso Antipolo Rizal 23 NAS, UPLB, Los Banos 33 Nangka (PAGASA) 4 NAIA 14 Sitio Tabak Montalban Rizal 24 Pakil, Laguna 34 BosoBoso (EFCOS) 5 Scienec Garden 15 Macasipac, Sta. Maria, 25 Umiray 35 Mt.Oro (PAGASA) Laguna 6 Ambulong Batangas 16 Tagaytay 26 La Mesa 36 Sulipan 7 Tanay (Radar) 17 Bagumbayan Taguig MM 27 Angat Dam 37 Ipo Dam 8 Infanta 18 NPP Research Bu.of Prison 28 Matulid 38 San Rafael Muntinlupa 9 Barrio Maitim 19 Pasig Elem. Sch. Pasig MM 29 Science Garden (EFCOS) Amadeo Cavite 10 Mabolo Elem Sch. 20 Tipas Taguig MM 30 Napindan Bacoor Cavite Source: Prepared by the Study Team Annex F 3.4 Location of Rainfall Gauging Station
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25 2009.9.26 0.0
Station Status [mm] [m]
20 Not Selected 30.0 Science Garden Out of Basin
Napindan No Data Level
Depth
15 60.0 Mt.Campana No Data Sto. Nino Aries Fully Av ailable Water
Hourly Rain Rainfall Nangka Fully Av ailable 10 90.0 BosoBoso Fully Av ailable 09/22 08:00 09/24 08:00 09/26 08:00 09/28 08:00 09/30 08:00 Mt.Oro Fully Av ailable 2012.8.7 25 0.0
Station Status [mm] [m]
20 Not Selected 30.0 Science Garden No Data Napindan No Data Level
Depth
15 Sto. Nino 60.0 Mt.Campana No Data Aries Fully Av ailable Water Hourly Rain Rainfall Nangka Partly Av ailable 10 90.0 BosoBoso Partly Av ailable 08/03 09:00 08/05 09:00 08/07 09:00 08/09 09:00 08/11 09:00 Mt.Oro Fully Av ailable 2011.9.27 25 0.0
Station Status [mm] [m]
20 Sto. Nino 30.0 Science Garden No Data
Hourly Rain Napindan No Data Level
Not Selected Depth 15 60.0 Mt.Campana No Data Aries Fully Av ailable Water
Rainfall Nangka Fully Av ailable 10 90.0 BosoBoso Fully Av ailable 09/23 08:00 09/25 08:00 09/27 08:00 09/29 08:00 10/01 08:00 Mt.Oro Fully Av ailable 2004.11.30 25 0.0
Station Status [mm] [m]
20 30.0 Science Garden Out of Basin
Napindan Out of Basin Level Sto. Nino Depth 15 Hourly Rain 60.0 Mt.Campana Fully Av ailable Aries Fully Av ailable Water
Rainfall Nangka Fully Av ailable 10 90.0 BosoBoso Fully Av ailable 11/25 08:00 11/27 08:00 11/29 08:00 12/01 08:00 12/03 08:00 Mt.Oro Fully Av ailable 2000.11.3 25 0.0
Station Status [mm] [m]
20 Sto. Nino 30.0 Science Garden No Data
Hourly Rain Napindan No Data Level Depth
15 60.0 Mt.Campana No Data Aries No Data Water
Rainfall Nangka No Data 10 90.0 BosoBoso Fully Av ailable 10/29 08:00 10/31 08:00 11/02 08:00 11/04 08:00 11/06 08:00 Mt.Oro Fully Av ailable Note: Basin mean rainfall was calculated with arithmetic mean. Source: Prepared by the Study Team Annex F 3.5 Hydrograph and Hyetograph of the Top Ten Events of Peak Water Level (1/2)
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1998.10.23 25 0.0
Not Selected Station Status [mm] [m]
20 30.0 Science Garden No Data
Level Napindan No Data
Sto. Nino Depth
15 Hourly Rain 60.0 Mt.Campana No Data
Water Aries No Data
Rainfall Nangka No Data 10 90.0 BosoBoso Fully Av ailable 10/18 08:00 10/20 08:00 10/22 08:00 10/24 08:00 10/26 08:00 Mt.Oro Fully Av ailable 1995.10.1 25 0.0
Station Status [mm] [m]
20 Sto. Nino 30.0 Science Garden No Data
Hourly Rain Napindan No Data Level
Depth
15 60.0 Mt.Campana No Data Aries No Data Water
Rainfall Nangka No Data 10 90.0 BosoBoso Fully Av ailable 09/27 08:00 09/29 08:00 10/01 08:00 10/03 08:00 10/05 08:00 Mt.Oro Partly Av ailable 1999.8.3 25 0.0 Station Status
Science Garden No Data [mm] [m]
20 Sto. Nino 30.0 Napindan No Data Not Selected Hourly Rain
Level Mt.Campana No Data
Depth
15 60.0 Aries No Data
Water Nangka No Data
Rainfall BosoBoso No Data 10 90.0 Mt.Oro No Data 07/30 08:00 08/01 08:00 08/03 08:00 08/05 08:00 08/07 08:00 *PRBFFWC data was applied. 2011.6.25 25 0.0
Station Status [mm] [m]
20 Sto. Nino 30.0 Science Garden No Data
Hourly Rain Napindan No Data Level
Depth
15 Not Selected 60.0 Mt.Campana No Data Aries Fully Av ailable Water
Rainfall Nangka Fully Av ailable 10 90.0 BosoBoso Fully Av ailable 06/20 08:00 06/22 08:00 06/24 08:00 06/26 08:00 06/28 08:00 Mt.Oro Fully Av ailable 2000.7.6 25 0.0
Station Status [mm] [m]
20 Sto. Nino 30.0 Science Garden No Data Hourly Rain Level
Napindan No Data Depth
15 60.0 Mt.Campana No Data
Water Aries No Data
Not Selected Rainfall Nangka No Data 10 90.0 BosoBoso Fully Av ailable 07/02 08:00 07/04 08:00 07/06 08:00 07/08 08:00 07/10 08:00 Mt.Oro Fully Av ailable Note: Basin mean rainfall was calculated with arithmetic mean. Source: Prepared by the Study Team Annex F 3.5 Hydrograph and Hyetograph of the Top Ten Events of Peak Water Level (2/2)
A - 44 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Source: Prepared by the Study Team Annex F 3.6 Channel and Inlet Area
A - 45 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Pattern 1 Pattern 2
Pattern 3 Pattern 4 Source: Prepared by the Study Team Annex F 3.7 Thiessend Polygon (1/2)
A - 46 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Pattern 5 Pattern 6
Pattern 7 Pattern 8 Source: Prepared by the Study Team Annex F 3.7 Thiessend Polygon (2/2)
A - 47 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
1 Day Basin Mean Rainfall with Inverse Distance Weighted Method on October 4, 1993
1 Day Basin Mean Rainfall with Inverse Distance Weighted Method on August 1, 1999 Source: Prepared by the Study Team Annex F 3.8 Basin Mean Rainfall with IDW Method (1/3) A - 48 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
1 Day Basin Mean Rainfall with Inverse Distance Weighted Method on October 5, 1986
1 Day Basin Mean Rainfall with Inverse Distance Weighted Method on October 16, 1999 Source: Prepared by the Study Team Annex F 3.8 Basin Mean Rainfall with IDW Method (2/3) A - 49 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
2 Day Basin Mean Rainfall with Inverse Distance Weighted Method on October 4-5, 1993
2 Day Basin Mean Rainfall with Inverse Distance Weighted Method on August 1-2, 1999 Source: Prepared by the Study Team Annex F 3.8 Basin Mean Rainfall with IDW Method (3/3)
A - 50 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Source: Prepared by the Study Team Annex F 3.9 Scatter Plots of Daily Rainfall Depth (1/4)
A - 51 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Source: Prepared by the Study Team Annex F 3.9 Scatter Plots of Daily Rainfall Depth (2/4)
A - 52 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Source: Prepared by the Study Team Annex F 3.9 Scatter Plots of Daily Rainfall Depth (3/4)
A - 53 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Source: Prepared by the Study Team Annex F 3.9 Scatter Plots of Daily Rainfall Depth (4/4)
A - 54 Final Report
The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
Source: Prepared by the Study Team based on information from http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/
Source: http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/ Annex F 3.10 Examples of Examination of Weather Disturbance Type (upper: Satellite Image, lower: Typhoon Track)
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The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
[%] Lognormal Probability Paper [Year]
Case 1 Turbulance: Tropical Depression Duration: 1 Day Basin: Pasig-Marikina Point: Sto. Nino
Annex F 3.11 Probable Rainfall (1/4)
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The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
[%] Lognormal Probability Paper [Year]
Case 2 Turbulance: Monsoon Duration: 1 Day Basin: Pasig-Marikina Point: Sto. Nino
Annex F 3.11 Probable Rainfall (2/4)
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The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
[%] Lognormal Probability Paper [Year]
Case 3 Turbulance: All Duration: 1 Day Basin: Pasig-Marikina Point: Sto. Nino
Annex F 3.11 Probable Rainfall (3/4)
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The Study of Water Security Master Plan for Stormy Rainfall Analysis in Metro Manila and Its Adjoining Areas the Pasig-Marikina River Basin
[%] Lognormal Probability Paper [Year]
Case 4 Turbulance: All Duration: 2 Day Basin: Pasig-Marikina Point: Sto. Nino
Annex F 3.11 Probable Rainfall (4/4)
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