Summary:

Metropolitan Manila is a highly populated area and lies in the most-active tropical cyclone basin in the world. Tropical cyclones (or typhoons) are strong cyclonic storms that develop over warm ocean waters and when moving across coastal regions can bring immense damage to coastal cities. This report investigates the cascading effects typhoons have had in the past on Metro Manila and looks into possible solution strategies to strengthen the resilience of the urban area. Poverty is one of the most prevalent issues in Manila. Because of improper housing options and poor infrastructure, low-income communities are forced to live in flood-prone areas and therefore highly vulnerable to disaster events that are accompanied by flooding or storm surges. Informal settlements are the part of the urban system most affected by typhoons and in special need for attention in mitigation work. Proposed solution strategies include improvements in urban drainage, inclusive relocation plans, livelihood assistance and capacity building programs, weak solid waste management practices and rehabilitation of the wetland ecosystem.

Keywords: tropical cyclones, typhoon, disaster mitigation, flooding, informal settlements, urban poverty, waste management, livelihood assistance, wetland rehabilitation

1 Case study: Manila Stress: Typhoons Author: Vanessa Schaller

PROBLEM STATEMENT

Metropolitan Manila is a highly urbanized area on the island of Luzon in the Northern Philippines. Due to its geographical location in the Northwest Pacific Ocean it is situated in the most active tropical cyclone basin on Earth (see figure 1a) and is hit by an average of five to seven typhoons every year [1].

Typhoons1 are severe cyclonic storms with wind speeds above 118 km/h.2 They form in the tropical oceans over warm sea surface waters and if wind conditions are favourable grow into large formations of stormy clouds and spiralling winds. Moving at an average speed of about 19 km/h and guided by the main airstreams above them, they usually travel north-westward through the Northwest Pacific Ocean towards the Philippines, China and Japan (see figure 1b). Most typhoons generally last for about 6 days before they reach land, where they dissipate because of increased friction and moisture cut-off. They can however strengthen again when travelling out into the sea and last up to 2 weeks [2]. Nearly 70% of the cyclones in the Northwest Pacific basin develop from July to October, and although there is a minimum chance of occurrence in February there is no specific typhoon season and they regularly occur all year round [3].

Figure 1: a) Map of all tropical cyclone tracks from 1945-2006. Cyan and blue tracks correspond to tropical storms, yellow, orange and red tracks show storms classified as tropical cyclones (maximum windspeed >118 km/h). It can be seen that the Northwest Pacific Ocean (marked by a rectangle) is the basin where most tropical cyclones occur worldwide. b) Tracks of all tropical cyclones of the 2019 Northwest Pacific season. The storms typically form over the ocean and move north-westward towards the coastlines. The points show the location of each storm in 6-hour intervals. The color code corresponds to the one explained in a). The location of Metro Manila is indicated by a red star. Figures adapted from [4] and [5].

1 The terms ‘tropical cyclone’ and ‘typhoon’ are two different names for the same phenomenon. Throughout this text ‘tropical cyclone’ is used for more generic information, while the term ‘typhoon’ is used when specifically referring to a tropical cyclone in the Northwest Pacific basin. (In the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific Ocean tropical cyclones are also referred to as hurricanes.) 2 as defined by the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee [38]

2 Typhoons are one of the most destructive natural disasters and heavily impact coastal areas in the Northwest Pacific basin. They often make landfall in the Philippines and bring heavy rain, strong winds and storm surges with them. With a yearly average of 20 typhoons, the Philippines is the area 3 most affected by tropical cyclones is in the world [3]. The last cyclonic storm that heavily impacted the capital Manila was Typhoon Kammuri4 in December 2019. Almost 450.000 people were evacuated and half a million buildings were damaged in Metro Manila alone [6]. Marina traffic was suspended and Manila’s airport shut down for 12 hours resulting in the cancellation of over 500 flights [7]. Reports like this are not untypical for Manila. In 2009 Typhoon Ketsana5 caused severe flooding in the Metropolitan area [8]. It led to an economic damage of 233 million US dollars and killed over 400 people 6, making it one of the most destructive typhoons in Philippine’s history [9].

Because of the frequent occurrences of typhoons and the city’s location in a seismically active region, Manila was deemed the second riskiest city7 to live in, in terms of natural hazards [10]. And yet, with almost 13 million people8, the Metro Manila area is one of the most densely populated metropolitan areas in the world [11]. Although most of the typhoons that hit Manila on a regular basis are not affecting the city as severely as Typhoon Ketsana did, one can use Ketsana as a case study to infer what possible cascading effects typhoons imply for the Manila area.

Typhoon Ketsana led to widespread flooding as an effect of a record high rainfall event of 455 mm in 24 hours [12]. Flood waters covered almost 80% of the Metro area, ranging from knee-deep up to roof-top- deep water levels. The heavy rain also caused landslide incidents, that together with floodwater led to numerous impassable road sections. Over 4 million people in Metro Manila were affected by the disaster. The economic damage was mainly composed of damaged infrastructure and agricultural loss. In total over 180.000 buildings were destroyed and 300.000 megatons crops lost [9]. Typhoon Ketsana showed the vulnerability of the city to the effects of cyclonic storms, but it also ignited stronger efforts in mitigation works.

In general, the effects of a natural disaster can be categorized into groups of primary, secondary and tertiary hazards. The primary hazards of typhoons consist mainly of heavy rainfall and destructive winds. However, the greatest damage to life and infrastructure is caused by secondary hazards such as storm surges, flooding, landslides and tornados. Tertiary hazards include spikes in food prices and other necessities, but also effects that can follow years after the typhoon.

At sea, typhoons primarily impact shipping logistics by causing distress for vessels and forcing ships to reroute. As a consequence, entire supply chains can be disrupted or delayed. The most significant effects of typhoons however, occur when they cross coastlines. Primary effects are destructive winds, that can damage buildings, bridges, vehicles and trees and turn loose material into dangerous flying projectiles. The heavy rainfall primarily intensifies storm surges, causes flooding and landslides. Storm surges are typically the most dangerous effects of landfalling cyclones to human life and historically caused 90% of all tropical cyclone deaths by drowning [13]. Flooding in combination with destruction of sanitation

3 It is referred to the Philippine Area of Responsibility, the area monitored by the Philippines’ national meteorological agency. 4 Kammuri is the international name, it is also known as Typhoon Tisoy in the Philippines. 5 Ketsana is the international name, it is also known as Typhoon Ondoy in the Philippines. 6 The numbers refer to the damage and casualties in Metro Manila only. 7 ranked by potentially affected people 8 Number of inhabitants of the National Capital Region from the last census in 2015. Likely to be more now.

3 facilities leads to sewage polluted water bodies and, in case of stagnant waters, can cause the spread of infectious water-borne diseases. Secondary effects also include disrupted power lines and communication networks as a result of destroyed utility towers. Additionally, clean water supply can also be a prevalent issue resulting from infrastructure damage, and blocked roads can complicate rescue efforts and transportation of food and medication.

In the aftermath of a typhoon the biggest issues usually are providing enough shelter solutions for the homeless and covering the financial needs for reconstruction. In addition to that, experiencing a disaster and witnessing death or destruction of the home can have psychological consequences for individuals. Mental health issues are often underestimated and don’t receive much attention from public health authorities [14].

Typhoons also impact the coastal wetland ecosystems. Saltwater intrusion induced by storm surges can affect both marine animals and animals living in the coastal wetland. Damage and change of their habitat following a disturbance can lead to a decrease in species diversity. Also, the destruction and loss of mangrove forests by uprooting and other changes in the tree canopy have been observed. Moreover, the effects of typhoons cause extensive beach erosion and thereby reshape the morphology of the coastline [15]. These effects may reduce the future ability of wetland ecosystems to protect the land from storms by dampening the resulting surges.

Like most other weather phenomena, tropical cyclones are expected to become more extreme with climate change. Most experts agree that the number of cyclones will become less, however, their maximum intensity and related rainfall will increase [16]. A study has shown that over the past 37 years landfalling typhoons in the Northwest Pacific have intensified by 12 to 15% and linked this effect to ocean surface warming [17]. Also, a north-westward shift of typhoon tracks after the late 1980s has been reported [18]. Climate model projections of tropical cyclones worldwide predict that a 2°C anthropogenic global warming will lead to an increase of 14% in cyclone precipitation rates, a 5% increase in maximum surface wind speed and a proportional increase of very intense storms by 13%. These changes are mainly connected to rising sea surface temperatures and an expected increase in atmospheric moisture content. For the North-western Pacific Basin specifically, a further poleward expansion of the latitude where the cyclones reach maximum intensity is predicted. Moreover, it is expected that sea level rise over the coming decades will lead to higher average storm surge levels and put additional weight on coastal cities [19].

In addition to climate change, population growth in the urban region around Manila is projected to continue. Rapid urbanization and migration into cities are challenges that Manila also has to cope with. The part of the population most vulnerable to natural disasters like typhoons and climate change are, after all, the urban poor. Low-income communities that live in flood-prone areas along the river systems are exposed to a higher risk of property damage and loss of income. Many of them live in informal settlements with limited access to potable water, electricity, sewage and sanitation facilities. 9 Urban poor communities usually experience most of the devastation caused by floods and storm surges and local governments often fail to provide the necessary infrastructure or to restore and maintain existing ones [20]. Because of their location and socio-economic status, the effects of typhoons and other calamities become magnified for the urban poor and their already low potential for adaption further

9 To learn more about poverty and its effect on Manila’s resilience, please read Valeria Martinez’s trend report

4 diminishes. Thereby natural disasters like typhoons further marginalize poor communities and increase economic inequalities [21].

SOLUTION STRATEGIES

First and foremost, it is important to acknowledge that the resilience of a city against a particular shock or stress can only be strengthened by taking a holistic approach. It is crucial to look at the city as one single socio-technical-environmental system and identify solution strategies that will not favor a certain community while at the same time further marginalize another one.

As a first step to improve disaster management, it is necessary to perform a thorough analysis of the risk and develop an understanding of the hazards in their full complexity. To this end, historical records and scientific models are used to estimate the probability of typhoon occurrence, the recurrence interval and the expected flood intensities in a given area. By creating so called hazard maps, the parts of the city at highest risk can be identified and tailored mitigation strategies can be developed [22].

In response to Typhoon Ketsana in 2009 the Philippine government formulated a 25-year Metro Manila Flood Management Master Plan funded by the World Bank, wherein a set of measures to effectively manage flood events is proposed [23]. It consists of a number of structural and non-structural measures including a multi-purpose dam in the upper catchments of the Marikina river to reduce the river peak flows entering the city during heavy rainfall events. With a total storage capacity of 90 million m 3 and together with a complementary retention basin of 12 million m 3 that is being planned, it would be able to handle the river discharge of a 100-year rainfall event [24]. The construction of these structural measures would boost Manila’s climate resilience and moreover address water shortage problems in the city during the dry season.10 In addition, a watershed management program was proposed consisting of strategies like reforestation and the construction of sediment traps in the upper catchment area giving room to the river and diminishing erosion processes.

While the construction and implementation of large-scale structural measures takes a long time, smaller interventions can be implemented more readily. The Philippine government has started with improving urban drainage by dredging the waterways and modernizing pumping stations. A desilting project along Estero de Tripa de Gallina, the longest creek in Manila, was recently finished, where more than 35.000 m3 of silt was removed from the creek to ensure continuous water flow and increase its water carrying capacity [25].

However, additional drainage problems in Manila arise because of improper solid waste disposal. Creeks and drainage channels are often seen as convenient dumping grounds for all sorts of garbage leading to a hampering of water flow and clogging of the drainage system [26]. So far, the waste collection efficiency in Metro Manila is about 80%, while the remaining 20% are left on the streets, burned or dumped into waterways. While local government units are struggling with providing the necessary infrastructure for waste collection, awareness increase in communities can be an efficient approach to

10 To learn more about drought in Manila, please have a look at Emma Koole’s trend report.

5 mitigate the problem from the bottom up. Community-based programs that are aimed to educate community members and initiatives implementing recycling systems are important factors that contribute to so-called weak solid waste management practices [27]. Also scrap businesses commonly named ‘Junk Shops’ are quite popular in Manila and contribute to waste recovery. They are simple buy and sell businesses that collect recyclable materials from trash scavengers and sell them to recycling centers [28].

Informal settlers living along or sometimes even over drainage channels do not only impede the water flow and make the access to waterways for maintenance difficult, but they are also the part of the population at the highest exposure to natural disasters hazards. Besides poverty, it is simply the lack of housing alternatives that forces people to live in high-risk areas. Relocation efforts undertaken by the government are often criticized because in the past they didn’t take the socio-economic impact on the relocated families into account and moved them to off-city places far from job opportunities. In the framework of the Metro Manila Flood Management Project the World Bank foresees the resettlement of around 2500 households that obstruct the operation and maintenance of new or improved drainage infrastructure. Together with the government they plan to move the informal settlers out of danger areas and provide them with better housing, but also livelihood assistance programs [27]. In general, investment in properly planned urban development with a good connectivity between large relocation sites and economic centers would help to decongest the city center and provide attractive alternatives for Manila’s residents living in high-risk zones [29].

Another important measure that is part of Manila’s Flood Management Plan is the improvement of early warning systems and the strengthening of community-based flood risk management. Residents often have difficulties understanding hazard alerts and generally lack the knowledge about what actions they need to take after receiving an alert. Humanitarian projects like Partners for Resilience 11 try to raise public awareness among the citizens of Manila and help identify how they can proactively respond to warnings and increase their disaster preparedness. Together with community leaders they examine the vulnerability factors on a local scale and develop risk reduction plans and improved evacuation schemes [30]. A recently implemented example is a so-called ‘go bag’, which comprises a portable kit meant to help individuals or families to survive the next 72 hours after the evacuation of their home in response to a storm [31].

During and after a disaster event one of the biggest problems is the lack of temporary shelter solutions. Especially for the urban poor there is an urgent need for safe spaces where they can stay and recover in the aftermath of a calamity. In the framework of Move UP, a project that works with the government on implementing resilience strategies in Metro Manila, an improved alternative temporary shelter program has been developed that provides dignified solutions and helps meeting the survival needs of those affected by a disaster [32]. Additionally, Move UP increases awareness and understanding of the benefits of micro-insurances12 among local communities and connects them to reliable micro-insurance providers [33].

11 Partners for Resilience is a global network of civil society organizations working in partnership with the Dutch government to strengthen people’s resilience in disaster risk areas. 12 Micro-insurance are insurances tailored to low-income households, who don’t have access to regular insurance plans.

6 A study of mortality rates in a Bangladesh cyclone of 1991 showed that children under 10 and woman are at highest risk of dying in a cyclone event. While mortality rates were shown to be lowest for males above 10, the higher vulnerability of woman and children is explained by their smaller size and lack of physical strength and endurance [34]. In addition to that, a study of the International Red Cross showed evidence that gender-based violence tends to increase following a disaster [35]. Especially displacement to temporary shelters and negative-coping strategies of disaster victims seem to put additional burden on women. The humanitarian agency CARE put the empowerment of women and girls as a key point on their agenda and is working towards resilience building with a special focus on promoting gender equality. The organization works on disaster risk reduction and climate change adaption in the Philippines and offers capacity building programs to the urban poor [36]. Moreover, they try to act as mediators between vulnerable communities and decision makers and give advice to the government on how to integrate the needs of the urban poor in development planning. Especially regarding the ‘Manila Bay Sustainable Development Master Plan’13, they try to harmonize the planning process by communicating the concerns of the affected local communities and raising social and environmental issues that the current plan doesn’t take into consideration[37] .

It is important to mention that monitoring and benchmarking disaster risk management strategies is crucial to evaluate the effect and impact of solution strategies. While many of the proposed structural measures, like a newly build dam and reservoir, are still only in their planning phase, improvements in the drainage infrastructure can be continuously monitored by measuring water gauge levels. Moreover, performing drills and exercises helps to assess disaster preparedness within a community and also to maintain awareness over periods without the occurrence of typhoons. Lastly, surveys among the affected population are an important tool to evaluate the effectiveness of the described livelihood assistance and capacity building programs. The concept map shown in Figure 2 summarizes the cascading effects typhoons have on Metro Manila and identifies where in the system the discussed solution strategies intervene to reduce disaster risk and thereby strengthen the cities’ resilience. p s h y t M F h o e i r e g e o e l l a u l u t p o v t ti r r o e w y o e o x s

r n M e t 2 a a . d : n

s i a T n

C t d s h n r

o o c a g e i l a n l t a

r u a e u c e ti e r a g s e r o e p n i n o e n s t d

w s

b

m fl i a o s ( s o i

a x n i s p o n e p e

o d r t s

l e e i c i e ) n n d

o r c a ti g f

ti n e b r n ) n e o r , o g i e n w x n s

c

a e i g o h m ti s w

f i ( n ) l

p e

a e s g s l o .

y e h g t t l

h o u . f h c

r e w ti s a e o e u o a

m m d w s n r i a r

a m h a o s l i e i t n w n t e r r y

a n e e s 13 The Manila Baye Sustainable Development Master Plan is a master plan for the development of the Manila bay

t t c

ff ff p i e

o n t e e o g r

area formulatedn by the Philippine government in consultation with the Dutch government. The planning phase

c c a t i i n n t e h t p

s e ti s e started in 2018( and the plan itself comprises a 22-year implementation period. s

p

c

n o d

s ti a u g f i y s r r o

t s e p c a n y t u

l w e p a s

7 e s m

h , a ( s

e o b e y

t . o l d

g h u f n

r . e e i

o n s

,

m

i n

LINKS FOR FURTHER READING

. Cities and Flooding, A guide to Integrated Urban Flood Risk Management for the 21st century by Abhas K. Jha, Robin Bloch, and Jessica Lamond, The World Bank, ISBN: 978-0-8213-9477-9 https://books.google.nl/books/about/Cities_and_Flooding.html? id=n6NoKiWglh0C&printsec=frontcover&source=kp_read_button&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q= monitor&f=false A book with over 600 pages about flood risk management, discussing in detail how to understand floods and design both structural and non-structural measures. The highlights are case studies from all over the world that substantiate the theory throughout the book. For an introduction into flood management and a summary of the key points please refer to ‘A summary for policy makers’ on page 14.

. Epidemiology of Tropical Cyclones: The Dynamics of Disaster, Disease, and Development by James M. Shultz, Jill Russell, and Zelde Espinel (2005), doi: 10.1093/epirev/mxi011 https://academic.oup.com/epirev/article/27/1/21/520830 An article published in Epidemiologic Reviews investigating the impact of tropical cyclones on public health. After a small introduction into formation and classification of tropical cyclones, different aspects of public health affected by tropical cyclones are discussed. This includes mortality, injuries, infectious diseases and psychosocial consequences.

. A review on impact of typhoons and hurricanes on coastal wetland ecosystems by Xuming Wang, Weiqi Wang and Chuan Tong (2016), doi: 10.1016/j.chnaes.2015.12.006 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1872203215000657 An article from Acta Ecologica Sinica discussing the impact of typhoons on wetland ecosystems, nutrient cycles and water quality. It also identifies the factors on which recovery and ability to adapt depend and names the areas of research that need further understanding. Figure 1 of the article shows a detailed conceptual summary of the study.

. Tropical cyclones and climate change by Thomas R. Knutson, John L. McBride, Johnny Chan, Kerry Emanuel, Greg Holland, Chris Landsea, Isaac Held, James P. Kossin, A. K. Srivastava, and Masato Sugi (2010), doi: 10.1038/ngeo779 https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo779 A review article published in Nature Geoscience giving a good overview and summary on how the occurrences of tropical cyclones will develop under climate change. It also discusses the challenges the scientific community is facing in model prediction. For a very recent assessment of the same topic please refer to this article by the same author: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS- D-18-0194.1

8 REFERENCES

[1] Office for Coastal Management, “National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,” United States Department for Commerce, [Online]. Available: https://bit.ly/34hk08w. [Accessed 3 October 2020].

[2] Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, “GOV.PH,” Phillippine Government, [Online]. Available: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/information/about-tropical-cyclone. [Accessed 26 September 2020].

[3] Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, “GOV.PH,” Philippine Government, 2019. [Online]. Available: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/climate/tropical-cyclone-information. [Accessed 13 September 2020].

[4] Wikiproject Tropical Cyclones, “Wikipedia: Typhoons in the Philippines,” 1 March 2008. [Online]. Available: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoons_in_the_Philippines. [Accessed 27 September 2020].

[5] Wikiproject Tropical Cyclones, “Wikipedia: 2019 Pacific Typhoon season,” 12 29 2019. [Online]. Available: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Pacific_typhoon_season. [Accessed 27 September 2020].

[6] National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council, “ndrrmc.gov.ph,” 22 January 2020. [Online]. Available: http://www.ndrrmc.gov.ph/attachments/article/3969/SitRep_No_21_re_Response_Actions_and_ Effects_of_Typhoon_TISOY_as_of_22JAN2020_6PM.pdf. [Accessed 26 September 2020].

[7] J. Tarabay, “New York Times,” The New York Times Company, 3 December 2019. [Online]. Available: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/03/world/asia/philippines-typhoon-tisoy- kammuri.html. [Accessed 13 September 2020].

[8] I. Tharoor, “Time Magazine,” TIME USA, 29 September 2009. [Online]. Available: http://content.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1926646,00.html. [Accessed 13 September 2020].

[9] National Disaster Coordinating Council, “ndrrmc.gov.ph,” 30 October 2009. [Online]. Available: https://ndrrmc.gov.ph/attachments/article/1543/Update_Final_Report_TS_Ondoy_and_Pepeng_ 24-27SEP2009and30SEP-20OCT2009.pdf. [Accessed 13 September 2020].

[10] Swiss Reinsurance Company, “Swiss RE,” 2014. [Online]. Available: https://www.swissre.com/dam/jcr:1609aced-968f-4faf-beeb-96e6a2969d79/ Swiss_Re_Mind_the_risk.pdf. [Accessed 26 September 2020].

9 [11] Philippine Government, “Philippine Statistics Authority,” 1 August 2015. [Online]. Available: https://psa.gov.ph/content/population-national-capital-region-based-2015-census-population-0. [Accessed 13 September 2020].

[12] NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, “NASA,” 13 August 2010. [Online]. Available: https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2009/h2009_Ketsana.html#:~:text=Th e%20rainfall%20generated%20from%20Ondoy,from%20its%20orbit%20in%20space.. [Accessed 26 September 2020].

[13] J. M. Shultz, J. Russell and Z. Espine, “Epidemiology of Tropical Cyclones: The Dynamics of Disaster, Disease, and Development,” Epidemiologic Reviews, no. 27, pp. 21-35, 2005.

[14] M. Ahern, R. S. Kovats, P. Wilkinson, R. Few and F. Matthies, “Global Health Impacts of Floods: Epidemiologic Evidence,” Epidemiologic Reviews, no. 27, pp. 36-46, 2005.

[15] X. Wang, W. Wang and C. Tong, “A review on impact of typhoons and hurricanes on coastal wetland ecosystems,” Acta Ecologica Sinica, vol. 36, no. 1, pp. 23-29, 2016.

[16] K. J. E. Walsh, S. J. Camargo, T. R. Knutson, J. Kossin, T.-C. Lee, H. Murakami and C. Patricola, “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change,” Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, vol. 4, no. 8, pp. 240-250, 2019.

[17] W. Mei and S. P. Xie, “Intensification of Landfalling Typhoons over the Northwest Pacific Since the Late 1970s,” Nature Geoscience, no. 9, pp. 753-757, 2016.

[18] H. Zhao and L. Wu, “Inter-decadal shift of the prevailing tropical cyclone tracks over the western North Pacific and its mechanism study,” Meteorol Atmos Phys, no. 125, pp. 89-101, 2014.

[19] T. Knutson, S. J. Camargo, J. C. L. Chan, K. Emanuel, C.-H. Ho, J. Kossin, M. Mohapatra, M. Satoh, M. Sugi, K. Walsh and L. Wu, “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment,” American Meteorological Society, vol. 101, no. 3, pp. E303-E322, 2020.

[20] E. Porio, “Vulnerability, Adaptation, and Resilience to Floods and Climate Change-Related Risks among Marginal, Riverine Communities in Metro Manila,” Asian Journal of Social Science, no. 39, pp. 425-445, 2011.

[21] E. Berner, “Poverty Alleviation and the Eviction of the Poorest: Towards Urban Land Reform in the Philippines,” International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, vol. 24, no. 3, pp. 554-566, 2020.

[22] A. K. Jha, R. Bloch and J. Lamond, Cities and Flooding: A Guide to Integrated Urban Flood Management for the 21st Century, The World Bank, 2012.

[23] The World Bank, “Philippines - Flood Management Master Plan For Metro Manila Project (English).,” World Bank Group, Washington, D.C., 2010.

[24] The World Bank, “Pasig-Marikina River Basin Flood Management Project Project Information Document (PID),” The World Bank Group, Washington, D.C, 2020.

10 [25] Philippine Governent, “Republic of the Philippines, Department of Public Works and Highways,” 20 February 2020. [Online]. Available: https://www.dpwh.gov.ph/dpwh/news/18596. [Accessed 19 September 2020].

[26] Metro Manila Development Authority, “GOV.PH,” 25 September 2019. [Online]. Available: http://www.mmda.gov.ph/54-news/news-2019/4106-sept-25-2019-mmda-joins-international- coastal-clean-up-day-tomorrow.html. [Accessed 19 September 2020].

[27] The World Bank, “Project Information Document , Metro Manila Flood Management Project (P153814),” May 2017. [Online]. Available: http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/569821495531675047/pdf/PID-Appraisal-Print- P153814-05-23-2017-1495531642159.pdf. [Accessed 20 September 2020].

[28] Philippine Department of Trade and Industry, “Department of Trade and Industry,” September 2010. [Online]. Available: https://www.dti.gov.ph/wp-content/uploads/e-Library/Business/StartingABusiness/Starting-a- Business-Junkshop-_-Scrap-Business.pdf. [Accessed 27 September 2020].

[29] The World Bank, “Philippines Urbanization Review, Fostering Competitive, Sustainable and Inclusive Cities,” The World Bank Group, Washington D. C., 2017.

[30] M. J. d. Arcilla, “Resilience and Innovation Learning Hub, Partners for Resilience,” Janary 2015. [Online]. Available: https://rilhub.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Inside-Story-Barangay- Potrero-Malabon1.pdf. [Accessed 21 September 2020].

[31] CARE, “Resilience and Innovation Learning Hub,” CARE, 6 August 2020. [Online]. Available: https://rilhub.org/2020/08/06/what-is-a-go-bag/. [Accessed 27 September 2020].

[32] CARE Philippines, “CARE Philippines, Move UP,” 2019. [Online]. Available: https://care- philippines.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/MOVE-UP-Philippines-2-1.pdf. [Accessed 20 September 2020].

[33] J. Casals, “Move UP Evaluation,” 27 November 2017. [Online]. Available: https://www.alnap.org/system/files/content/resource/files/main/Final_MOVEU. [Accessed 27 September 2020].

[34] C. Bern, J. Sniezek and G. M. Mathbor, “Risk factors for mortality in the Bangladesh cyclone of 1991,” Bulletin of the World Health Organization, vol. 71, no. 1, pp. 73-78, 1993.

[35] International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, “Unseen, unheard: Gender- based violence in disasters Global study,” International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Geneva, 2015.

[36] CARE Philippines, “CARE Philippines,” 2019. [Online]. Available: https://care-philippines.org/wp- content/uploads/2019/10/CARE-Philippines-2019-Capacity-Statement.pdf. [Accessed 20 September 2020].

[37] Partners for Resilience, “Resilience and Innovation Learning Hub,” 10 August 2020. [Online].

11 Available: https://rilhub.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/MBSDMP-Chapter-7_Consolidated- Feedback.pdf. [Accessed 27 September 2020].

[38] “Typhoon Committee,” ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee, 2018. [Online]. Available: http://www.typhooncommittee.org/tropical-cyclone-classification/. [Accessed 26 September 2019].

12 UNDERSTANDING QUESTIONS

1. Which typhoon hazard causes the most damage and what measures have been taken in Manila to mitigate the impact? 2. Which part of Manila’s population is most affected by typhoons and why? 3. What change in the Earth climate system causes typhoons to become more intense under climate change? 4. Why have relocation efforts by the Philippine government in the past been unsuccessful? 5. What form of disaster management is more efficient in Manila’s current situation: Centralized and on a national level or localized on a community level?

DISCUSSION QUESTIONS

1. Are structural measures like building a dam or non-structural measures like humanitarian initiatives more important to increase city resilience? 2. Is relocating informal settlers living in low-lying areas against their will a necessity or a violation of human rights? 3. Why do people choose to live in overpopulated disaster-prone cities and how could migration to cities be counteracted?

13