UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA SAN DIEGO Networks and Insurgency: How Social Relationships Shape Conflict A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science by Dotan A. Haim Committee in charge: Professor Emilie M. Hafner-Burton, Co-Chair Professor David A. Lake, Co-Chair Professor James H. Fowler Professor Branislav L. Slantchev Professor Barbara F. Walter 2018 Copyright Dotan A. Haim, 2018 All rights reserved. The dissertation of Dotan A. Haim is approved, and it is acceptable in quality and form for publication on microfilm and electronically: Co-Chair Co-Chair University of California San Diego 2018 iii DEDICATION To my family. iv EPIGRAPH The cow is of the bovine ilk; One end is moo, the other, milk. —Ogden Nash v TABLE OF CONTENTS Signature Page . iii Dedication . iv Epigraph . v Table of Contents . vi List of Figures . viii List of Tables . ix Acknowledgements . x Vita ............................................. xii Abstract of the Dissertation . xiii Chapter 1 Civilian Social Networks and Credible Counterinsurgency . 1 1.1 Abstract . 2 1.2 Introduction . 3 1.3 Asymmetric Insurgency, COIN, and Social Networks . 7 1.3.1 Social Networks . 11 1.4 Theory: Horizontal Information and Counterinsurgent Credibility . 12 1.4.1 The Credibility Puzzle . 13 1.4.2 Social Networks and the Spread of Credible Information . 15 1.4.3 Horizontal Information and Security . 16 1.4.4 Horizontal Information and Development . 19 1.4.5 Alternative Explanations . 23 1.5 Research Context: Rebellion in the Philippines . 24 1.6 Data and Methods . 28 1.6.1 Dependent Variable: Counterinsurgency Effectiveness . 28 1.7 Economic Development Programs . 32 1.7.1 Counterinsurgency-Specific Development (PAMANA) . 32 1.7.2 Community-Driven Development (KALAHI) . 34 1.8 Family Networks . 34 1.9 Estimating Equation . 36 1.10 Results . 38 1.11 Discussion . 44 1.12 Appendix . 48 vi Chapter 2 Family Matters: Police Social Embeddedness and Citizen Buy-In Under Contested Legitimacy . 54 2.1 Abstract . 55 2.2 Introduction . 56 2.3 Bureaucratic Embeddedness, Citizen Buy-In, and Government Ser- vice Provision . 61 2.3.1 Alternative Argument: Embeddedness Causes Favoritism, Corruption . 64 2.3.2 Hypotheses . 66 2.3.3 Scope Conditions . 67 2.4 The Philippines: Policing Under Contested Legitimacy . 68 2.5 Research Design . 71 2.6 Results: Embeddedness and Citizen Buy-In . 75 2.7 Results: Embeddedness, Corruption, and Favoritism . 77 2.8 Results: Embeddedness and Crime . 81 2.9 Discussion and Conclusion . 85 2.10 Appendix . 88 2.11 Acknowledgements . 88 Chapter 3 Clash of Clans: Local Elections, Political Networks and Conflict in the Philippines . 89 3.1 Abstract . 90 3.2 Introduction . 91 3.3 Background . 94 3.4 Theory . 96 3.4.1 Why Local Politicians Ally with Insurgents . 97 3.4.2 Why Insurgents Ally with Local Politicians . 102 3.4.3 Why Political Clans are the Most Likely Allies . 104 3.4.4 Hypotheses . 107 3.5 Conflict in the Philippines . 109 3.5.1 Outcome Variables: Insurgent Presence and Violent Incidents 111 3.5.2 Explanatory Variable: Local Clan Influence . 114 3.6 Findings . 115 3.7 Discussion . 122 3.8 Appendix . 124 3.8.1 Descriptive Statistics . 124 3.8.2 Estimating Equations . 127 3.8.3 Full Model Results . 130 Bibliography . 131 vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: Theory Overview . 14 Figure 1.2: Toy Example - Security . 18 Figure 1.3: Toy Example - Development . 22 Figure 1.4: Number of Rebel-Influenced Villages, 2010-2015 . 29 Figure 1.5: National NPA Presence, 2011-2015 . 30 Figure 1.6: PAMANA and KALAHI Targeting Based on NPA Affectation . 33 Figure 1.7: Interaction of Family Ties and Military Control in Other Villages . 39 Figure 1.8: Interaction of Family Ties and Military Control in Other Villages . 42 Figure 1.9: Density Plots . 48 Figure 1.10: Interaction of Family Ties and Development Projects in Other Villages . 49 Figure 1.11: Example of Inter-Village Family Networks and PAMANA Implementation 53 Figure 2.1: Village Family Networks . 74 Figure 2.2: Tanod Photo Card . 75 Figure 2.3: Social Distance and Citizen Perceptions of Tanods . 76 Figure 3.1: Rebellion-Related Incidents by Group, 2011-2015 . 110 Figure 3.2: National NPA Presence, 2011-2015 . 113 Figure 3.3: Local Clan Influence and NPA Presence . 117 Figure 3.4: Local Clan Influence and NPA Presence: Raw Data . 119 Figure 3.5: Local Clan Influence and Violent Incidents . 120 Figure 3.6: Local Clan Influence and Development Targeting . 121 Figure 3.7: National NPA Presence, 2010-2015 . 125 Figure 3.8: Local Clan Influence and NPA Presence: Raw Data . 127 viii LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1: Main Results . 38 Table 1.2: Types of Counterinsurgency: Gain vs. Loss . 44 Table 1.3: PAMANA and KALAHI Project Types . 50 Table 1.4: Removal of Influence vs. Threat . 50 Table 1.5: Directly Targeted vs. Influence Only . 51 Table 1.6: Time Decay and Different Lag Structures . 51 Table 1.7: KALAHI vs. PAMANA . 52 Table 1.8: Spatial Regression . 52 Table 2.1: Family Ties and Favoritism . 79 Table 2.2: Tanod Embeddedness and Crime . 83 Table 2.3: Family Ties and Citizen Perceptions of Tanods . 88 Table 3.1: BCMS Incidents by Election Cycle . 114 Table 3.2: Table of Means . 124 Table 3.3: Distribution of Change in NPA Presence . 125 Table 3.4: Unpacking NPA Change . 126 Table 3.5: Full Regression Results . 130 ix ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am immeasurably grateful to a large number of people who supported me as I wrote this dissertation. I am particularly thankful for the advice and comments that I received from the faculty and students of the Political Science Department at the University of California, San Diego. Special thanks goes to my dissertation advisors at UCSD, David Lake, Emilie Hafner-Burton, Branislav Slantchev, Barbara Walter, and James Fowler. Each of these individuals has been extremely generous in their time and advice. Thanks also to my advisor and coauthor, Nico Ravanilla, whose arrival at UCSD during my time here was a tremendous blessing. Finally, thank you to Matt Winters, my very first advisor at the University of Illinois, who inspired my interest in empirical political science. I would also like to thank the members of my graduate class at UCSD, the “Best Cohort Ever,” along with other professors and graduate students whose paths crossed with mine. As classmates, collaborators, critics and friends, you have contributed greatly to this dissertation and to my life. Most of all, my intellectual and personal development have been propelled by Michael Davidson, David Lindsey, and Kelly Matush. Thanks also to my colleagues and friends, Marisa Abrajano, Claire Adida, Chris Brian, Lawrence Broz, Shannon Carcelli, Cesi Cruz, Scott Desposato, Karen Ferree, Erik Gartzke, Clark Gibson, Scott Guenther, Will Hobbs, Alex Hughes, Andy Janusz, Sara Kerosky, John Kuk, Nazita Lajevardi, Dan Maliniak, Scott B. Martin, Brandon Merrell, Sean Morgan, Megumi Naoi, Matt Nanes, Kai Ostwald, Kristy Pathakis, Greg Phillips, Inbok Rhee, Molly Roberts, Phil Roeder, Sebastian Saiegh, Christina Schneider, Paul Schuler, Caleb Scoville, Renard Sexton, Debbi Seligson, Zack Steinert-Threlkeld, Brian Tsay, Abby Vaughn, Alex Verink, Neil Visalvanich, Jason Wu, Jack Zhang. Thank you to Ronaldo Cabral, Paul Escober, Grace Labalan, and Ditas Ravanilla for your tremendous support during my field work in the Philippines. I hope I have not missed anyone. Finally, this dissertation is built on the strength I’ve gained from my family. Thank you to my parents, Dan and Ytje, and my siblings, Yonie and Ilse. x Chapter 2 is currently being prepared for submission for publication by Dotan A. Haim, Matthew J. Nanes and Michael W. Davidson. The dissertation author was a primary investigator and author of this paper. xi VITA 2018 Ph. D. in Political Science, University of California, San Diego 2010 B. A. in Political Science and Philisophy, University of Illinois, Urbana- Champaign PUBLICATIONS “Digit Ratio (2D:4D) and Social Integration: An Effect of Prenatal Sex Hormones”, with Jarom´ır Kova´rˇ´ık, Pablo Branas-Garza,˜ Shannon Carcelli, Michael W. Davidson, and James Fowler. Network Science 5:4, December 2017. “Alliance Networks and Trade: The Effect of Indirect Political Alliances on Bilateral Trade Flows”, Journal of Peace Research 53:3, May 2016. “Using Networks to Combine ‘Big Data’ and Traditional Surveillance to Improve Influenza Predictions”, with Michael W. Davidson and Jennifer R. Radin, Nature, Scientific Reports 5, January 2015 xii ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION Networks and Insurgency: How Social Relationships Shape Conflict by Dotan A. Haim Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science University of California San Diego, 2018 Professor Emilie M. Hafner-Burton, Co-Chair Professor David A. Lake, Co-Chair This dissertation investigates how social networks impact counterinsurgency effectiveness. Drawing evidence from the Philippines, I find that counterinsurgency is more likely to succeed when civilians have social ties to other villages experiencing quality governance (Chapter 1), civilians have direct social ties to government security officers (Chapter 2) and local politicians.