THE ASPEN STRATEGY GROUP ON THE OLD & NEW COLD WAR

Over thirty years, the Aspen Strategy Group has shied from no crisis or tense relationship troubling the world, from the Middle East to climate change to cyber theft. But Russia has never been far from its sights—and particularly not now. By Nicholas Burns

hen members of the Aspen Strategy Group consequences of a new time of tension with Moscow. Former assembled this past August at Aspen Meadows, Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd offered insights on Russia’s we returned to a familiar if troubling topic— growing partnership with China. The United Kingdom’s Shadow America’s “long, twilight struggle,” as Foreign Secretary Douglas Alexander described European attitudes WPresident Kennedy so memorably called it, with the Kremlin. in a new era of competition with Russia. Senator Dianne Feinstein During four summer days of debate and discussion, our co- hosted the group for dinner and lent her long congressional chairs, former National Security Advisor Brent Scowcroft and experience to all these questions. Harvard Professor Joe Nye, led us through an in-depth, spirited, We also benefited from the unique experience of former and very frank conference on how the Obama administration Secretaries of State Condoleezza Rice and Madeleine Albright and should cope with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annexation of former Secretary of Defense Bob Gates. In our only public forum Crimea and destabilization of Eastern Ukraine. at Aspen, I interviewed the three before an overflow audience in Around the table was an extraordinarily interesting collection of the Greenwald Pavilion about the extraordinary challenges the Republicans, Democrats, and independents. The largely American United States faces from Russia, the Middle East crises, and China. group spent our time in meetings, over lunch and dinner, and on Behind closed doors, we had the benefit of their advice on how to the hiking trails in pursuit of one overarching question: What are cope with Putin and his “back to the future” outlook. the vital American interests at stake with Moscow, and how can we It is safe to say that all of us emerged from this year’s discussions best defend and advance them? with a palpable sense of just how complex these challenges will be Brookings President and long-time Russia expert Strobe Talbott for the United States and its NATO allies. Putin’s aggression toward opened with a penetrating and insightful Ernest May Memorial Ukraine is, without doubt, the most serious crisis in Europe since Lecture on the roots of Russian policy under Putin. Russia watchers, the end of the Cold War. Having won a democratic peace in Europe such as Georgetown’s Angela Stent, provided insights into Putin’s a quarter-century ago with the collapse of the Soviet Union and mind-set and worldview. Current Assistant Secretary of State Warsaw Pact and the achievement of a unified Germany, dividing Victoria Nuland presented the Obama administration’s policies lines are once again reappearing to separate parts of Eastern and perspectives. Harvard’s Meghan O’Sullivan and former World Europe—Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia—from the West. I came Bank President Bob Zoellick delved into the energy and economic away from the conference with the view that President Obama and Hal Williams

62 THE ASPEN IDEA WINTER 2014/2015 THE ASPEN IDEA WINTER 2014/2015 63 Nye and Rice at an early that the group would be resolutely nonpartisan. They set in place Strategy Group meeting a framework of private, off-the-record discussions to which we still adhere today. We believe this is a key reason for our success and why we continue to attract to Aspen the most senior former government officials from both parties as well as top journalists, businesspeople, and academics. During its first years, the Strategy Group focused principally on defense strategy, arms control, and the US-Soviet debate at the height of the Cold War. After the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact disintegrated, the Strategy Group took on a more global focus, looking, for instance, at the lessons of the 1991 Gulf War. We refocused on establishing close relations with a newly independent Russia in 1993 and again in 1996. In that year, the Strategy Group launched a five-year project known as the US-Russia Dialogue to promote an opportunity for Americans to sit down regularly Ferenc Berko Ferenc

Putin’s aggression toward Ukraine is, without doubt, the most serious crisis in Europe since the end of the Cold War.

with Russian counterparts and to take on the toughest issues that separate the two countries. Burns, Nye, Scowcroft This type of “Track-Two” dialogue is often most valuable when

Hal Williams governments find it difficult to have honest and open conversations with each other. Finding a way to establish more direct personal NATO leaders have been correct in placing stronger sanctions on been far from the group’s minds and its origins three decades ago. contacts is one of the objectives. That occurred in June 2000, Putin to drive up the costs of his actions and by strengthening the The story of the Aspen Strategy Group begins in 1971 with the when American participants met for the first time a little-known NATO alliance to defend its members, especially nearby Estonia, American strategist Paul Doty, who initiated an annual meeting Russian official with a seemingly innocuous title—deputy head of Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. to discuss arms control at the Institute. By the early 1980s, the the presidential administration in Moscow. That man was Dmitry Over the last thirty years, the Aspen Strategy Group has taken on the group had become a nonpartisan forum for discussion among Medvedev, who later became Russian president and who, today, most important global challenges facing America. We’ve examined the university professors, think tank experts, and government officials. serves as Putin’s prime minister. contours and complications of US grand strategy in the Middle East In 1984, former Secretary of Defense Bill Perry, Brent Scowcroft, We would like to think that many of our members have also after the Arab revolutions, the national security implications of energy and Joe Nye formally created the Aspen Strategy Group. The found the Aspen Strategy Group to be a training ground for and climate change, US policy in Asia, and the dangers emanating “founding three,” highly regarded in Washington and around leadership positions in the US government. Ash Carter and from cyber war, cyber espionage, and cyber theft. But Russia has never the world for their thought leadership and public service, agreed Michele Flournoy, who would later both serve as under secretary David Petraeus Dan Bayer

FEB 1994: First Joint US- NOV 1989: Russia Space SEPT–OCT 1990: Fall of Berlin Wall Shuttle Mission MAY 1995: DEC 1987: German DEC 1991: Reunification Dissolution AUG 1994: President Clinton NOV 1985: Mikhail Gorbachev Selected Visits Moscow for Geneva Summit as TIME’s “Man of the Year” MAY–JUN 1988: of USSR Final Withdrawal MAR 2000: Moscow Summit; MAR 1990: of Russian 50th Anniversary NOV 1998: Vladimir MAY 2002: MAY 1984: APR 1986: Ratification of Gorbachev Elected Military Forces Commemoration JAN 1996: MAY 1997: Launch of DEC 1999: Putin Creation of the Soviet Olympic Chernobyl Intermediate-Range President of the from Estonia of Allied Victory US Senate Ratifies NATO-Russia International Boris Yeltsin Elected NATO-Russia Boycott Disaster Nuclear Forces Treaty Soviet Union and Latvia in World War II START II Treaty Founding Act Space Station Resigns President Council

1971: AUG 1984: JUN 1986: JUN 1988: AUG 1991: AUG 1993: MAY 1996: DEC 2001: JANUARY 2002: Paul Doty Aspen Strategy Group Aspen Strategy Group Holds Aspen Strategy Group Examines Aspen Strategy Group ASG Examines Aspen Strategy Aspen Strategy Aspen Strategy Begins a Hosts Inaugural Summer First Meeting with European “The Gorbachev Challenge and Broadens Focus and “Security in the Group Begins Group Meets for Group Launches Series of Workshop on Strategy Strategy Group on “Chemical European Security” with the Hosts Workshop on Former Soviet AUG 1995: Track II Dialogue 10th US-Russia US-India Strategic Workshops and Arms Control Weapons & European Security” European Strategy Group the Gulf War Union” at First Aspen Strategy Group Meeting with Russia Dialogue Dialogue on Arms Summer Focused on US-China Relationship Control Workshop OCT 1995: Aspen Strategy Group Conducts a Track II Dialogue on “The Future of the US-Japanese Security Relationship” 64 THE ASPEN IDEA WINTER 2014/2015 THE ASPEN IDEA WINTER 2014/2015 65 Nuland, Gates, Rice Hal Williams

of defense for policy, were young members of the group when on Russia. We hope it will be of use to students, citizens, and we examined Russia policy in the 1990s. Steve Hadley, President policymakers alike for how the United States should work to George W. Bush’s national security advisor, and Condoleezza shape America’s complicated relationship with Russia in the Rice, who went on to become secretary of state, both participated years ahead. in Aspen Strategy Group meetings as far back as the 1980s. And As the Aspen Strategy Group reflects on the last thirty we have always benefited from the participation of members years, we are more convinced than ever that it is our of Congress, from former Senators Richard Lugar and Sam nonpartisanship that makes us unique and that is so badly Nunn to currently serving members Senator Jack Reed and needed in our national discourse, particularly in Washington. Senator Feinstein. Many of these same people were around the That is the mission we look forward to continuing for many table with us this summer as we discussed the latest challenges years into the future. with Russia. Part of our mission is to identify young leaders who will play a role in the senior levels of our government a decade or two hence and to introduce them to our nonpartisan proceedings. We Nicholas Burns is director of the Aspen Strategy Group and professor at will publish a book in November on this summer’s conference Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. aspeninstitute.org/asg Feinstein Hal Williams

MAR 2012: FEB 2014: JUL 2014: Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych Flees SEPT 2005: MAR 2008: Putin Elected Malaysia Airlines Russia and Germany Sign JAN 2006: NOV 2007: Dmitri Medvedev President MAR 2014: Flight 17 Shot Down Major Gas Pipeline Agreement Russia Putin Suspends Elected President NOV 2011: Russian Federation Annexes Crimea Over Eastern Ukraine Briefly Conventional APR 2010: Georgia and Russia AUG 2012: MAR 2004: Cuts Gas Armed Forces AUG 2008: “New START” Sign Deal Allowing Russia Formally MAY 2014: AUG 2014: Putin Wins Supply to in Europe Russia Invades MAR 2009: Agreement Russia to Join World Joins World Trade Gazprom Signs Gas Deal with Russia Invades Second Term Ukraine Treaty Georgia US-Russia “Reset” Signed Trade Organization Organization China National Petroleum Corp. Southeastern Ukraine TO BE DETERMINED AUG 2004: SEPT 2007: Aspen Strategy NOV 2008: 16 Aspen Strategy SEPT 2009: Aspen Strategy DEC 2010: Aspen Strategy SUMMER 2012: JUN 2013: APR 2014: Aspen Strategy Aspen Strategy Group Group Convenes the 10th Group Members Will Join the Group Revisits Arms Control Group Partners to Host Aspen Strategy Group Aspen Strategy Group Group Launches US-Brazil Hosts Workshop on “The Annual US-India Dialogue Obama Administration Over Dialogue for “2010: A Critical the First China-Europe-US Surpasses 100 Meetings Launches US-China Strategic Dialogue in Sao Paulo Challenge of Proliferation” in Washington, DC Course of Two Terms Year for Arms Control and Trialogue in Beijing Policy Dialogue Non-Proliferation” AUG 2014: Aspen Strategy Group Examines “US-Russia Relationship” at Summer Workshop

66 THE ASPEN IDEA WINTER 2014/2015 THE ASPEN IDEA WINTER 2014/2015 67