* such statements hollow but charitable with Trump’sof Donald dismissed nor term, gasp last the merely as regarded be cannot 2021 of 6January events Washington The world. of the rest in the also but of course, States, United –in the come to time long minds for avery in our etched remain will Capitol US the to siege laying mob of an incited images The Union European the of © Council 12 January 2021. 12on January ? libre monde du leader le redevenir de position “ Originally published in in published Originally Accord UE-Chine : l’Amérique est-elle encore en en encore est-elle :l’Amérique UE-Chine Accord geopolitical awakening geopolitical European of sign A EU China agreement 2021 MARCH Le Grand Continent Continent Le Grand as as ”, ”, Council on Foreign Relations, the dean of dean the Relations, Foreign on Council of the Haass N. Richard stupefaction. with events these witness elite intellectual US the see to fascinating therefore was It clarity. more and with earlier spiral downward this of note took we world, of the rest In the its not in 2016 decline, of this asymptom was president turned star TV reality The chasms. and racial and social idols, secessionist of glorification theories, conspiracy now, including years for several US the in burgeoning have been that dynamics many by underlying driven d’état was coup attempted This America”. not is “this as cause. *

Luuk van Middelaar Clingendael Alert Clingendael Alert

US foreign policy circles, wrote right after with Xi Jinping, the Chinese president. the Capitol events on Twitter: “No one in the The agreement gives European companies world is likely to see, respect, fear, or depend better access and protection on Chinese on us in the same way again. If the post- markets, but analysts were mainly struck by American era has a start date, it is almost its strategic importance – the EU, on its own, certainly today.” America’s exceptionalism accomplished a geopolitical act. – the manifest destiny deeply anchored in the country’s collective consciousness – has Washington took offence. How could Europe received a fatal blow.” enter into an agreement with the US’s big rival just three weeks before Biden’s And there will be considerable consequences inauguration? Couldn’t it have waited a bit for us in Europe. to arrive at a common position against the “thug” Xi? While the EU seemed to be quite As the first president to have truly begun relieved at Trump’s exit, Jake Sullivan, Biden’s to disengage the United States, Donald national security advisor, said on Twitter Trump has broken with US imperialism. In so that the new administration would have doing, “America First” has accelerated the appreciated “consultation” with its European momentum of European strategic autonomy. allies on China. That is one thing that has Since the election of Joe Biden, there has not changed from the Trump era – the nonetheless been some hesitation and White House continues to send out orders foot‑dragging, not least from Berlin. What if via Twitter. things just went back to the way they were? The European Union did have good reasons The Democratic Redeemer and his staff have for sticking to the timetable. The investment promised to put America back at the “head agreement had been under negotiation of the table”, from the very first day of his with China for the past seven years. administration, making it the leader of the The 31 December 2020 deadline was set at free world once again. This is the mantra the 2019 EU-China summit and reiterated of Biden himself, as well as his secretary solemnly since. In the run-up to the German of state, Antony Blinken, and important presidency of the Council of EU, Chancellor advisors on European affairs, such as Merkel had publicly pledged to meet this Victoria Nuland.1 deadline. So Washington can hardly say it was surprised. Moreover, China had made In the coming months and years, this some major 11th-hour pledges of its own. ambition will generate major transatlantic Any foot-dragging by Europe at this stage tension. We are seeing this already with would therefore have sent a bad signal by regards to China, the greatest geopolitical suggesting to the entire world that it did not challenge. In the last hours of 2020, the have the courage to act on its own, but only European Union reached an agreement in after getting the green light from the US. principle on investment with Beijing. The That would have done great harm to the EU’s European quartet of Michel, von der Leyen, standing on the world stage – with regards Merkel and Macron met via videoconference to Beijing, but also Moscow, Ankara, London and Tehran – eroding the political and economic leverage at Europe’s disposal by standing firm on its own interests and values. 1 Victoria Nuland, incidentally, is the wife of Robert Kagan, a neoconservative ideologue. She briefly It may be useful to remember that the US rose to fame in February 2014, when she was put also entered into “Phase One” of its own in charge of negotiations in Ukraine by President Obama. During a phone conversation with the US trade agreement with China, early in 2020. ambassador to Kiev, she dismissed the Europeans’ In certain ways, the EU-China agreement attempts at mediation with a scornful “Fuck the merely closes the gap, as European EU”. Moscow leaked the conversation shortly companies are obtaining guarantees that thereafter. have already been promised to their US counterparts. It would be hypocritical

2 Clingendael Alert

to deny them to us. In some areas, Organisation’s Forced Labour Convention; Chinese concessions to the EU go further, Xi promised to do his best. Is that enough? concessions that the US could potentially For the European Parliament, which must obtain in turn, thus opening the door to a sign off on the agreement, probably not. subtle new transatlantic cooperation, to Should we therefore cut off all dialogue with which European leaders have already invited China on climate change, human rights, the new US administration. trade and the Middle East? Is Washington doing that? We share the same planet with But Washington had no patience for such China, a country with 1.4 billion people that nuances. In its issue of 6 January, The New is not simply going to go away. York Times called out the EU’s “greed” and “naïveté”. So did the news website Politico, The Capitol events of 6 January show clearly which is widely read in Brussels circles. that we can’t outsource our own security Financial Times columnist Gideon Rachman and tie it to a four-year US election cycle. accused the EU of handing China a “strategic victory” with this agreement, putting it in It is also in the Americans’ interest not the context of Beijing’s recent autocratic to disrupt the dynamics of Europe’s outrages – repression in Hong Kong, geopolitical awakening, but to join with it intimidation of Taiwan, military confrontation in creating a new transatlantic relationship. with India, and economic sanctions against As things now stand, Europe clearly cannot Australia. In his view, Europe is undermining do without US military protection; Angela democratic forces in the world. Merkel and Emmanuel Macron are perfectly aware of this. But our interests and values In this mindset, which harkens to a new cold are not always aligned with those of the war, everything becomes absolute, each US. To be strong and united on essential situation is black and white. And yet, any democratic issues, Europe must possess diplomatic interaction is full of contradictions its own capacity to act. If the US sees and dilemmas. Do we want to buy masks “consultation” as simply blowing a whistle sewn by Uyghur forced labourers? No, and and having Europe fall into line, it is ignoring we won’t do so. That’s why the EU asked the extent of the world’s new balance China to ratify the International Labour of power.

3 About the Clingendael Institute Clingendael – the Netherlands Institute of International Relations – is a leading think tank and academy on international affairs. Through our analyses, training and public debate we aim to inspire and equip governments, businesses, and civil society in order to contribute to a secure, sustainable and just world.

This alert is a publication by The China Platform for European Institutional Investors (CPEII). The Clingendael China Centre acts as its secretariat. www.clingendael.org  @clingendaelorg [email protected]  The Clingendael Institute +31 70 324 53 84  The Clingendael Institute  clingendael_institute  Newsletter

About the author

Luuk van Middelaar is a Senior Research Associate at the Clingendael Institute. He is a political theorist and historian. He is a member of the Advisory Council on International Affairs (Adviesraad Internationale Vraagstukken – AIV), a professor of EU law at Leiden University and a political commentator for NRC Handelsblad.