Will Silicon Valley Disrupt Everything? David Moschella, Research Director Generational shifts in IT leadership are the norm
Mainframe Mini PC Mobile Internet IBM Digital IBM Apple Google Sperry IBM Apple Google Amazon Burroughs Data General Intel RIM Facebook Honeywell Wang Microsoft Arm Twitter NCR Prime Dell Samsung eBay CDC HP HP HTC Wikipedia ICL Sun Compaq Motorola Netflix Amdahl Tandem Seagate Nokia Pandora Siemens Oracle Sony Ericsson Kickstarter Fujitsu Honeywell Toshiba Huawei Lending Club Hitachi Olivetti Amstrad Sony Airbnb Cray NEC Lenovo LG Uber HQ in Silicon Valley Leading Edge Forum 2
Silicon Valley wants it all
Technology Disruptions Industry Disruptions
• Cloud, SaaS • Mfg – 3DP, Robots, Food
• Mobility/Apps • Health Care – Retailization
• Social Media • Transport – Cars, Avionics
• New Interfaces • Retail – Same Day Delivery
• Big Data • Banks – Kickstarter, Bitcoin
• IoT, Wearables • Education – MOOCs
• Open Source/DevOps • Insurance?
Dis-intermediation, Peer-to-Peer, Aggregation, Commoditization, Standardization, Re-invention … Leading Edge Forum 3
Vertical disruption varies widely, thus far
High Little Disruption Potential Disruption
• Defense • Banking
• Aerospace • Insurance
• Energy • Professional services
Security/ Regulatory Requirements Significant Disruption Highly Disrupted
• Retail, distribution • Music, books, film, TV
• Electronics, Japan Inc. • Software/publishing • Taxis, hotels • Education/learning
Low Atoms Product Offerings Bits
Leading Edge Forum 4 But vertical disruptors can face major barriers
Laws/ Vested Licensing/ Chicken/Egg Unions/ Regulations Interests Credentials Dilemmas Labor Laws
Monopoly/ Privacy/ Antitrust Permissions
Customer Tariffs/ Inertia Protectionism
Lack of Lack of Cooperation Standards
Patents/ Global Copyrights Differences Liability/ Technology Risk/ Insurance Immaturity Uncertainty
Leading Edge Forum 5 “Disruptive innovation” best explains this pattern
Performance Disruptive innovation
Obvious/
Mainstream Sustaining Threat/ innovation Danger
Joke/ Toy
Time
Leading Edge Forum 6 IT disruptions led by entrepreneurs, risk-takers
Boe Evans, Gene Amdahl, Ross Perot, Seymour • 78% US Born Cray, Ted Codd, Gordon Moore, Robert Noyce, Andy Grove, Ted Hoff, Vint Cerf, Ken Olsen, • 90% US Educated Gordon Bell, An Wang, Larry Ellison, Hasso Plattner, Ray Kurzweill, Bob Metcalfe, Bill Joy, • 78% College Grads
Steve Wozniak, Steve Jobs, Dan Bricklin, Don • 46% Advanced Degree Estridge, Bill Gates, Mitch Kapor, Al Shugart, Rod Canion, Ray Noorda, Michael Dell, Scott • 76% Firm Founder Cook, Ray Ozzie, Leonard Bosack, Tim Berners- Lee, Linus Torvalds, Tom Siebel, Marc • 58% Worked in Andreessen, Steve Case, Mike Lazaridis, Jeff California
Bezos,Shawn Fanning, Pierre Omidyar, Larry • Avg Age, Founder/ Page, Sergey Brin, Marc Benioff, and Elon Musk, Inventor – 32 Janus Friis, Jimmy Wales, Reid Hastings, Mark Zuckerberg, Reid Hoffman, Jack Dorsey. • All Men
Leading Edge Forum 7
Silicon Valley is where ideas “cross-pollinate”
Leading Edge Forum 8 Thank You!