The Second Term of the Xi Jinping Leadership: New Economic Team to Start Its Full-Fledged Activities Next March
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2017.11.14 (No. 18, 2017) The Second Term of the Xi Jinping Leadership: New Economic Team to Start its Full-fledged Activities Next March Naoki Umehara Senior Economist [email protected] Emerging Economy Research Department Institute for International Monetary Affairs (IIMA) 1. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (1) Birth of new Xi Jinping leadership The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (hereinafter “CPC”) (the 19th CPC congress) was held for seven days from October 18th to 24th. It was the first congress since the 18th congress held in November 2012 and the next one (the 20th CPC congress) is to be convened after five years in the autumn of 2022. In the morning of the opening day (18th) General Secretary Xi Jinping delivered his political work report1 which lasted for three and a half hours. The state television broadcasted nationwide the entire process of his address. He stressed that the five years starting with the 19th congress would be an important period to enter a “New Era” by securing a decisive victory in building a moderately prosperous society in all respects and striving for the great success of socialism with Chinese characteristics. Although the key player was General Secretary Xi Jinping who was going to take a second term, much attention was also given to the two former General Secretaries, Mr. Jiang Zemin and Mr. Hu Jintao, who sat on both sides of General Secretary Xi. The attitude of Mr. Xi to each of 2 the former secretaries apparently differed, as far as it was seen on the TV. According to the 1 Please refer to the following for a full text of the report Mr. Xi Jinping made in the morning on October 18th. http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/download/Xi_Jinping's_report_at_19th_CPC_National_Congress.pdf 2 Mr. Xi Jinping looked like having an intimate, mutually assessable good relationship with Mr. Hu Jintao, but the relationship with Mr. Jiang Zemin looked like a cool and more formal one. Mr. Xi is a direct successor of Mr. Hu Jintao, and if recalling the last change of the administrations that occurred five years ago, it may seem only the 1 China watchers in Hong Kong, Taiwan and the US, the broadcasting is interpreted to have revealed nationwide the complicated power relationships in the Communist Party, conflicts of their interest, and the existence of covert struggles surrounding them. The recent CPC congress was participated by more than 23 hundreds of national delegates and special invitees3. Before it closed on 24th, the congress elected 204 members and 172 candidate members for the central committee of the party, and 133 members for the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, thus it formally established the reshuffled Central Committee and the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection for the tenure of the coming five years (the 19th session). At the same time, it adopted a resolution on the revised “Constitution of the CPC”. On the following day of the congress (25th), the first Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee (hereinafter “the first Plenary Session”) was held with the participation of 500+ members elected earlier, and the first Plenary Session elected from Central Committee 25 members of the Political Bureau (hereinafter “Central Politburo”) of CPC, and seven members of the Standing Committee of Central Politburo (hereinafter “Politburo Standing Committee”) and the General Secretary to the Central Committee4. In this way, the new leadership was launched for the second Xi Jinping administration. (2) Top echelon of the CPC Central Committee The organizational chart of the CPC Central Committee and the ranks of the top members of the Central Politburo of CPC were listed on the website of the Party after the closing of the congress5. The General Secretary of the Central Committee of CPC is Mr. Xi Jinping (64), and the remaining Politburo Standing Committee members are Mr. Li Keqiang (62, reelected for the second term), M. Li Zhanshu (67), Mr. Wang Yang (62), Mr. Wang Huning (62), Mr. Zhao Leji (60) and Mr. Han Zheng (63) 6. All the members of the Central Committee are in their 60s (also reflection of the close affiliation between the two. But it will be more appropriate to interpret it that this is rather a projection of images carefully staged by the authorities to reflect the intention and message of the current administration. 3 Among 2,354 representatives combined of 2,280 national delegates and 74 special invitees, 2,338 attended the session. 4 Separately nominated and endorsed were seven members of CPC Central Committee Secretariat; members of CPC Central Military Commission, including one Chairman and two Vice-chairman; and 19 Standing Committee members of CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection consisted of one Secretary, eight Deputy-secretaries, and ten Standing Committee members. CPC Central Committee Secretariat is an organization to deal with the works for Politburo Standing Committee and its Standing Committee. Seven secretaries now consist of one of members of Politburo Standing Committee (Mr. Wang Huning), five from Central Politburo members, and one from Central Committee members. 5 The organizational chart of the Party’s main organizations is shown (together with the profile of members on a click) on http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/special/19cpcnc/leadership.htm 6 In the 10 year period under General Secretary Hu Jintao (the 16th and 17th sessions), there were nine Politburo Standing Committee members and relatively balanced policy management was made. For this reason, the management was referred to as “China Nine” by Prof. Homare Endo (Head of International Exchange Center, Tokyo University of Social Welfare, and Honorary professor of Tsukuba University, Doctorate of Science, who writes many books and comments on China). Likewise, the first term of Mr. Xi Jinping administration was often referred to as “China Seven”, but since Mr. Xi Jinping rose in prominence as a “Core” of Central Committee of CPC at the sixth 2 under 67) with no members in the 50s of age. This means that there is a high likelihood that at the 20th CPC congress after five years since 2017, no one can be elected as a new General Secretary of new generation who will lead the Party the following 10 years. This is regarded to have increased a possibility that Mr. Xi Jinping continues to occupy the supreme power as a strongest single leader even after 2022. Focusing on the 25 members of the Central Politburo of CPC, more than half of the committee members (i.e.15 members) are seen to be close or loyal to Mr. Xi (Xi faction)7. In other words, Mr. Xi has succeeded in making an ally of more than half of the Central Politburo members, and if the decision should be taken by majority vote, he will be easily able to suppress the opponents. In this sense, it can be said that the second-term Xi Jinping Leadership has already acquired a high level of stability. If this concentration of power continues, however, there is a risk that the intra-party balance will be disrupted by an ever increased power of only Xi faction, and the diversity of opinions within the party will be lost. Whether an appropriate balance will be maintained or not will be determined in the time ahead by the skills of the members of Politburo Standing Committee including General Secretary Xi Jinping. (3) Amendment of CPC Constitution At the 19th CPC congress the revision of Constitution of CPC drew much more attention than ever. Although it is a normal thing for CPC to revise the constitution at the CPC national congress held every five years8, this year consultations had continued until just before the opening day on how to revise it. On the wish of Mr. Xi, it seemed to have been discussed to insert into the “General Program” of the constitution short phrases like “Xi Jinping Thought” or “Xi’s Idea of Government Management”, but in the end it was settled by writing in it a rather long phrase9 of “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era”10. This was only a product of compromise. In the previous version of the constitution, there had been incorporated guiding principles and ideals of Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin (Theory of Three Represents), and Hu Plenary Session of 18th Central Committee of CPC held in the autumn 2016, there has been a subtle cognitive discrepancy in that naming. 7 The Yomiuri Shimbun reported on October 26th that 15 members out of 25 Central Politburo members are loyal to Mr. Xi, and the Nikkei also demonstrated later the same recognition. In other words, about 60% of the members of the Central Politburo are loyal to Mr. Xi, although there are only three for Xi faction among seven in the Politburo Standing Committee. 8 Please refer to the historical record of revising of the constitution of CPC. http://dangshi.people.com.cn/n/2012/1115/c85037-19587296.html (in Chinese) 9 In Chinese, it is represented by 16 letters of “习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想” and it is unclear whether the noun of Xi Jinping modifies “a new era” or “the thought”. If the former is the case, the phrase will give an image of “a new era that Xi Jinping will unlock” and in the latter case it will mean “new thought advocated by Xi Jinping”. Interpretation among the Chinese people is also unknown or ambiguous. 10 For the full text of revised party constitution, refer to the following URL. http://cpc.people.com.cn/n1/2017/1029/c64094-29614515.html (in Chinese) 3 Jintao (Scientific Outlook on Development), but only “Mao Zedong Thought” and “Deng Xiaoping Theory” had borne personal names other than Marxism-Leninism.