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HOTSPOTS ALONG CHINA'S MARITIME PERIPHERY HEARING BEFORE THE U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION ONE HUNDRED FIFTEENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION THURSDAY, April 13, 2017 Printed for use of the United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission Available via the World Wide Web: www.uscc.gov UNITED STATES-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION WASHINGTON: 2017 ii U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION CAROLYN BARTHOLOMEW, CHAIRMAN HON. DENNIS C. SHEA, VICE CHAIRMAN Commissioners: ROBIN CLEVELAND HON. JONATHAN N. STIVERS HON. BYRON L. DORGAN HON. JAMES TALENT HON. CARTE P. GOODWIN DR. KATHERINE C. TOBIN DR. GLENN HUBBARD MICHAEL R. WESSEL DANIEL M. SLANE DR. LARRY M. WORTZEL MICHAEL R. DANIS, Executive Director The Commission was created on October 30, 2000 by the Floyd D. Spence National Defense Authorization Act for 2001 § 1238, Public Law No. 106-398, 114 STAT. 1654A-334 (2000) (codified at 22 U.S.C. § 7002 (2001), as amended by the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act for 2002 § 645 (regarding employment status of staff) & § 648 (regarding changing annual report due date from March to June), Public Law No. 107-67, 115 STAT. 514 (Nov. 12, 2001); as amended by Division P of the “Consolidated Appropriations Resolution, 2003,” Pub L. No. 108-7 (Feb. 20, 2003) (regarding Commission name change, terms of Commissioners, and responsibilities of the Commission); as amended by Public Law No. 109- 108 (H.R. 2862) (Nov. 22, 2005) (regarding responsibilities of Commission and applicability of FACA); as amended by Division J of the “Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2008,” Public Law Nol. 110-161 (December 26, 2007) (regarding responsibilities of the Commission, and changing the Annual Report due date from June to December); as amended by the Carl Levin and Howard P. “Buck” McKeon National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2015, P.L. 113-291 (December 19, 2014) (regarding responsibilities of the Commission). The Commission’s full charter is available at www.uscc.gov. iii May 15, 2017 The Honorable Orrin Hatch President Pro Tempore of the Senate, Washington, D.C. 20510 The Honorable Paul Ryan Speaker of the House of Representatives, Washington, D.C. 20515 DEAR SENATOR HATCH AND SPEAKER RYAN: We are pleased to transmit the record of our April 13, 2017 public hearing on “Hotspots along China’s Maritime Periphery.” The Floyd D. Spence National Defense Authorization Act for 2001 § 1238, Pub. L. No. 106-398 (as amended by the Carl Levin and Howard P. “Buck” McKeon National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal year 2015 § 1259b, Pub. L. No. 113-291) provides the basis for this hearing. At the hearing, the Commissioners heard from the following witnesses: Robert G. Sutter, Professor of Practice of International Affairs, Elliot School of International Affairs, George Washington University; Timothy R. Heath, Senior International Defense Research Analyst, RAND Corporation; Mark R. Cozad, Senior International Defense Research Analyst, RAND Corporation; Christopher D. Yung, Donald Bren Chair of Non-Western Strategic Thought, Marine Corps University; Ian Easton, Research Fellow, Project 2049 Institute; James E. Fanell, Government Fellow, Geneva Center for Security Policy; Michael J. Green, Ph.D., Senior Vice President for Asia and Japan Chair, Center for Strategic Studies; Mira Rapp-Hooper, Senior Fellow, Center for a New American Security; and Jacqueline N. Deal, President and CEO, Long Term Strategy Group. The subject of the hearing was an overview of China’s simultaneous preparations for contingency operations that target U.S. allies, friends, and partners in the Asia-Pacific. It specifically examined Beijing’s perception of security challenges posed by Taiwan and overlapping maritime claims in the East and South China seas, and how the People's Liberation Army plans to respond to those challenges. Additionally, this hearing explored the implications of potential Chinese aggression in this region for the United States and U.S. allies, partners, and friends should China initiate a conflict. We note that the full transcript of the hearing will be posted to the Commission’s website when completed. The prepared statements and supporting documents submitted by the participants are now posted on the Commission’s website at www.uscc.gov. Members and the staff of the Commission are available to provide more detailed briefings. We hope these materials will be helpful to the Congress as it continues its assessment of U.S.-China relations and their impact on U.S. security. The Commission will examine in greater depth these issues, and the other issues enumerated in its statutory mandate, in its 2017 Annual Report that will be submitted to Congress in November 2017. Should you have any questions regarding this hearing or any other issue related to China, please do not hesitate to have your staff contact our Congressional Liaison, Leslie Tisdale, at 202-624-1496 or [email protected]. Sincerely yours, Carolyn Bartholomew Hon. Denis C. Shea Chairman Vice Chairman iv CONTENTS THURSDAY, APRIL 13, 2017 HOTSPOTS ALONG CHINA'S MARITIME PERIPHERY Opening Statement of Vice Chairman Dennis C. Shea (Hearing Co-Chair) .......................................................................................................01 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................03 Opening Statement of Commissioner Carte P. Goodwin (Hearing Co-Chair) .......................................................................................................05 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................06 Panel I: Conditions, Motives, and other Factors Shaping Potential Hotspot Conflicts Panel I Introduction by Commissioner Carte P. Goodwin (Hearing Co-Chair) .......................................................................................................08 Statement of Robert G. Sutter Professor of Practice of International Affairs, Elliot School of International Affairs, George Washington University .....................................................................................09 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................11 Statement of Timothy R. Heath Senior International Defense Research Analyst, RAND Corporation ...........................18 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................21 Statement of Mark R. Cozad Senior International Defense Research Analyst, RAND Corporation ...........................32 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................35 Panel I: Question and Answer............................................................................................46 Panel II: How China Prepares to Fight Conflicts in Hotspots along its Maritime Periphery Panel II Introduction by Vice Chairman Dennis C. Shea (Hearing Co-Chair) .......................................................................................................65 Statement of Christopher D. Yung Donald Bren Chair of Non-Western Strategic Thought, Marine Corps University ......66 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................69 Statement of Ian Easton Research Fellow, Project 2049 Institute. ........................................................................85 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................88 Statement of Captain James E. Fanell U.S. Navy Retired, Government Fellow, Geneva Center for Security Policy ..............98 v Prepared Statement .......................................................................................................101 Panel II: Question and Answer ........................................................................................131 Panel III: Regional Responses and Implications for the United States Panel III Introduction by Commissioner Senator Carte P. Goodwin (Hearing Co-Chair) .....................................................................................................147 Statement of Michael J. Green Senior Vice President for Asia and Japan Chair, Center for Strategic Studies ...........148 Prepared Statement .......................................................................................................151 Statement of Mira Rapp-Hooper Senior Fellow, Center for a New American Security .................................................177 Prepared Statement .......................................................................................................181 Statement of Jacqueline N. Deal President and CEO, Long Term Strategy Group .........................................................................190 Prepared Statement .......................................................................................................194 Panel III: Question and Answer ......................................................................................208 1 HOTSPOTS ALONG CHINA'S MARITIME PERIPHERY THURSDAY, APRIL 13, 2017 U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION Washington, D.C. The Commission met in Room 419 of Dirksen Senate Building, Washington, D.C. at 9:30 a.m., Vice Chairman Dennis C. Shea and Commissioner
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