Project title: Vulnerability Assessment for Social- MINISTRY OF Ecological Systems and Policy Recommendation for ENVIRONMENTAL, GREEN Green Development Policy for 5 aimags at Local NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT DEVELOPMENT & TOURISM, Level MONGOLIA INSTITUTE OF MONGOLIA Khovd, Uvurkhangai, Arkhangai, Khentii and Bulgan
Vulnerability Assessment of 5 Green Aimags: Case of Uvurkhangai & Arkhangai
M.Altanbagana, T.Chuluun & B.Suvdantsetseg
National Development Institute of Mongolia Institute for Sustainable Development, NUM
Tokyo Jan 13-15, 2015 Contents
• Research Objec ve & Study Areas • Indicators & Design of Vulnerability Assessment • Result of Vulnerability Assessment & Analysis at Sum Level (Case of Uvurhangai, Arhangai aimags) • Ecological vulnerability • Social vulnerability • Integrated Vulnerability Assessment of Social-Ecological Syatems • Dissocia on & coopera on Research Objec ve
Sec on I Sec on II Sec on III
Analysis & Vulnerability Assessment Analysis of local Development Plan and Policy Recommendation of Green • Analysis for indicators of Ecological Budget each 5 aimags and Sum level Development Policy for 5 aimags and Social systems • To iden fy the Green development • Syntheses and Conclusion • Rela on analyze for vulnerability Criterion for local level • Result of Vulnerability Assessment indicators • Analyze of Local Development Plan by • Analysis of local Development Plan • Ecological & Social Vulnerability Green development Criterion and Budget Assessment by each sums of 5 aimags • Analyze of Local Budget by Green • Result of field survey • Integrated assessment for development Criterion vulnerability analyze of social- • Field survey in selected sums ecological systems in sum level Study areas: Khovd, Uvurkhangai, Arkhangai, Khentii and Bulgan Indicators for selec ng sums Ø Ecological region Ø Popula on Total 86 sums of 5 aimags Ø Remoteness Ø Infrastructure
Uvurkhangai aimag have 19 sums General schema of Vulnerability assessment
Environmental indicators Drought & Zud Combine to indicators of NDVI ecological
Desertification
Surface water loss Integrated vulnerability assessment of Another variables social-ecological systems
Social indicators Poverty Combine to indicators of Livestock loss social
Unemployment
Migration
Another variables
Ecological indicators Unit of Method of Level № Indicators Indicators Date Combine
1 Dougth, Zud index Index 1995-2013
2 Vegeta on index (NDVI), May to Oct average Index 1998-2013 3 Deser fica on Percent 2010 4 Surface water loss Percent 2011 Sum Geometric level 5 Pasture use index Index 1990-2013 mean
6 Land degrada on (wind erosion, soil Loss) Percent 2010 Prepared forage and hay cu ng 7 kg/sheep.unit 2011-2013 (per capita livestock)
8 Livestock loss Percent 1990-2013 9 Air pollu on mg/m3 2004-2013 Aimag Arithme c 10 Water pollu on mg/l 2011-2013 level mean 11 Soil pollu on mg/kg 2011-2013 Indicators of Social systems at sum level
Method of Level № Indicators Unit of Indicators Date Combine
1 Crop products (per capita person) kg/person 2011-2013
1989-2000, 2 Migra on, Popula on changes (growth & decrease) Percent 2000-2012
3 Unemployment Percent 2012-2013
4 Poverty Percent 2000, 2010 Sum 5 Bank saving (per capita person) tug/person 2010-2013 Arithme c level mean Livestock risk based on livestock loss during drought and zud Sheep.unit/ 6 years 2013 person Ган-зудын эрсдлийг тооцсон нэг хүнд ногдох мал Sheep.unit/ 7 Livestock per capita person 2002-2013 person 8 Number of Doctor and medical nurse (per capita person) Percent 2002-2013 9 In-pa ents number in hospital Percent 2002-2013 Uvurkhangai aimag: Some Result of Analysis and Vulnerability assessment Dynamics of drought, zud and integrated drought-zud in Uvurkhangai aimag Drought Zud 6.00 4.81 4.78 20.00 14.54 5.00 y = -0.49x + 7.36 4.00 3.15 15.00 3.00 2.12 1.82 1.68 10.00 2.00 0.93 1.03 6.52 0.20 2.84 3.72 1.00 -0.42 5.00 2.13 0.00 -0.15 -1.00 Zud index 0.00 Drought index -2.00 -2.82 -5.00 -1.91 -3.00 y = -0.06x + 1.85 -4.37 -4.00 -10.00 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1997 2004 2007 years years
In dynamic of drought index from 1995 to 2013 when the highest value If zud index shown minus value that means observed more zud. In was 4.81 in 2000 and 4.78 in 2001. dynamic of zud index from 1995 to 2013 when the lowest value of zud index was -1.91 in 2000 and -4.37 in 2010.
10.00 6.71 6.29 3.30 5.00 2.24 -1.02 -0.26 -1.11 0.00 -3.87 -3.23
index In dynamic of drought-zud
zud -5.00 index from 1995 to 2013 when y = 0.43x - 5.51 Integrated -10.00 the highest value of drought- zud index was 6.71 in 2000 drought-zud -15.00 Drought- and 6.29 in 2010. -20.00 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 years Livestock loss, Uvurkhangai aimag Livestock loss by each sums, average of 1990-2013
Zuunbayan-UlaanЗүүнбаян-Улаан 9.25 Арвайхээр Arvaiheer 8.51 Тарагт Taragt 7.47 Dynamic of livestock loss for Bayan-Баян-Өндөр Undur 7.10 1990-2013 at aimag level KharhorinХархорин 6.87 EsunzuilЗүйл 6.75 45.97 48.00 Өлзийт Ulziit 6.62 42.00 Хужирт Khujirt 6.60 36.00 Сант Sant 6.44 30.00 26.33 UyangaУянга 6.28 sheep.unit 24.00 TugtugТөгрөг 5.81 , %, 18.00 14.87 Бат-Өлзий Bat-Ulzii 5.64 12.00 Бүрд Burd 5.31 5.63 2.12 2.83 3.42 GuchinГучин ус -Us 5.19 6.00 1.11 0.82 0.54 0.95 1.01 0.61
Livestock loss 0.00 BayangolБаянгол 5.07 Baruunbayan-UlaanБаруунбаян-Улаан 5.03 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 KhairhandulaanХайрхандулаан 4.66 Нарийн тээл Nariinteel 4.49 In dynamic of livestock loss from 1990 to BogdБогд 4.02 2013 when high value was 26.3% in 2000 4.00 5.50 7.00 8.50 10.00 and 45.9 in 2010. Livestock loss, 1990-2013, %, sheep.unit 10.00 45.97 50.00
6.71 6.29 45.00 5.00 3.30 40.00 2.24 5.33 35.00 0.00
index -1.02 30.00
-0.26 sheep.unit Analysis between drought- -2.79 26.33 -1.11 zud -5.00 25.00 zud index and livestock loss 18.86 , %, -7.73 20.00 -10.00 14.87 in Uvurkhangai aimag level 15.00 Drought- 10.00 -15.00 5.63 3.51 2.74 1.03 1.77 1.01 0.61 5.00 -20.00 0.00 Livestock loss 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 1997 2001 2002 2003 2004 2007 2011 2012 2013 years Малын зүй бус хорогдол, % Livestock loss, % Ган-зудын индекс, ∆S Drought-zud index
50.00 y = 0.14x2 + 2.06x + 5.33 40.00 R² = 0.53, r=0.73 The results of dynamical analysis shown that drought-zud index 30.00 were increased and the number of livestock loss were increased. sheep.unit 20.00 Correlation coefficient was 0.73 for 1995-2013. , %, 10.00
0.00
-10.00 Livestock loss -20.00 -15.00 -10.00 -5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00
Drought-zud index Prepared forage and hay cu ng at sum level
Хархорин Kharhorin 18.46 Зүүнбаян-Улаан Zuunbayan-Ulaan 17.02 Бат-Өлзий Bat-Ulzii 13.60 Арвайхээр Arvaiheer 12.11 Prepared forage and Сант Sant 11.49 hay cu ng per capita Тарагт Taragt 10.47 livestock for average Хужирт Khujirt 10.35 of 2011-2013 (kg/ Есөнзүйл Esunzuil 9.96 sheep.unit) Өлзийт Ulziit 9.49 Нарийнтээл Nariinteel 8.28 Хайрхандулаан Khairhandulaan 8.21 Төгрөг Tugtug 8.11 Баруунбаян-Улаан Baruunbayan-Ulaan 7.53 UyangaУянга 6.91 Баянгол Bayangol 5.51 GuchinГучин-Ус -Us 5.33 Бүрд Burd 4.46 Баян-Өндөр Bayan-Undur 3.65 Богд Bogd 2.01 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00
Prepared forage and hay cu ng, kg/sheep.unit Vegeta on index (NDVI), Uvurkhangai NDVI by sums, average of Бат-Өлзий Bat-Ulzii 0.46 1998-2013 Хужирт Khujirt 0.39 KharhorinХархорин 0.37 UyangaУянга 0.36 Zuunbayan-UlaanЗүүнбаян-Улаан 0.33 Бүрд Burd 0.33 Dynamic of NDVI for 1998-2013 Есөн зүйл Esunzuil 0.30 Өлзийт Ulziit 0.26 0.32 0.30 Bayan-Баян-Өндөр Undur 0.24 0.30 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.27 Тарагт Taragt 0.24 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.24 Хайрхандулаан 0.24 0.23 Khairhandulaan
NDVI 0.24 0.22 Нарийнтээл Nariinteel 0.23 0.22 y = 0.002x + 0.24
0.20 Сант Sant 0.18
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 BayangolБаянгол 0.18 years GuchinГучин-ус -Us 0.14 TugtugТөгрөг 0.13 Baruunbayan-UlaanБаруунбаян- 0.13 BogdБогд 0.12
0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 NDVI, average of 1998-2013 Surface water distribu on and dry-up in sums by ecological regions, Uvurkhangai aimag Mineral Lake River Spring water Well Khujirt F o r e s t Kharhorin steppe Uyanga Bat-Ulzii Khairhandulaan Taragt Ulziit Nariinteel Steppe Zuunbayan-Ulaan Esunzuil Burd Bayan-Undur Arvaiheer Sant Dry steppe Bayangol Tugtug Gobi Guchin-Us Bogd Baruunbayan-Ulaan
Dried Total
Source: Surface water count data . 2011. Ministry of Environment, Green Development and Tourism, Mongolia Deser fica on & land degrada on of Uvurkhangai aimag
Source: Desertification Atlas. 2010. Geoecology Institute, Mongolian Academy of Science & Environmental Information Center, National Agency of Meterlogy and Environmental Monitoring. Popula on changes at sum level, Uvurkhangai a). Average annual growth in b). Average annual growth in sums, 1989-2000 National level (NL) sums, 2000-2012 • National level (NL) − Average annual − Average annual growth was 1.59% growth was 1.34% from 2000 to 2012. from 1989 to 2000. • How changes population in How changes population Sums, if in Sums, if <0 −> Decreased 0 – NL −> Normal growth <0 , −> Decreased NL < −> Mechanical growth 0 – NL, −> Normal growth NL <, −> Mechanical growth
Population changes • Population changes form 1989 to 2000 form 2000 to 2012 (total 19 sums) (total 19 sums) • 2 sums was Legend − 16 sums was (Khujirt, Legend Sum center Decreased Sum center Decreased Sum boundary Burd) Sum boundary − 1 sum was Normal Popula on, % • 3 sums was Normal Popula on, % growth (Bat-Ulzii) -1.63 < 0.00 decreased -2.93 < 0.00 decreased 0.00 − 1.34 normal growth growth (Zuunbayan- 0.00 − 1.59 normal growth − 2 sums was 1.34 < 4.00 mechanical growth Ulaan, Arvaiheer, Taragt) 1.59 < 3.20 mechanical growth Mechanical growth • 14 sums was (Uyanga, Arvaiheer) Mechanical growth Analysis for popula on changes and livestock loss by sums
b). Average annual growth in Spatial relation for average annual population changes sums, 2000-2012 and total livestock loss by sums.
4.80
Arvaiheer 3.20
Population methanical Uyanga growth (1.59%<) 1.60 Bat-Ulzii Population normal growth (0÷1.59%)
0.00 Tugrug Kharhorin Population decreased Baruunbayan-Ulaan Guchin-Us Hujirt (<0) Bayangol Esunzuil Bogd Bayan-undur -1.60 Nariinteel Khairhandulaan Burd Sant Ulziit Zuunbayan-Ulaan Taragt -3.20 Average annual growth in sums, 2000-2012 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.19 0.22 0.25 0.28 Legend Sum center Sum boundary Total livestock loss, million.head, 2000-2012 Popula on, % -2.93 < 0.00 decreased 0.00 − 1.59 normal growth 1.59 < 3.20 mechanical growth This analysis showing that total livestock loss increased when population number were deceased from 2000-2012. Popula on changes by loca on, Uvurkhangai Average annual growth by sum center and remote countryside in sums, 2000-2012 • National level (NL) • Average annual growth is 1.14% from 2002 to 2013 • How changes population in Sum center and Total 19 remote countryside area, if sums • Decreased <0 • Normal growth 0 - 1.14 • Mechanical growth 1.14 <
• Sum center population • 7 sum centers was Decreased • 3 sum centers was Normal growth • 9 sum centers was Mechanical growth Legend Sum center • Remote countryside area population (without Sum boundary
Arvaiheer sum of aimag center) Sum center popula on, % < 0.00 decreased • 13 sums are Decreased 0.00 − 1.14 normal growth • 3 sums are Normal growth 1.59 < mechanical growth
• 2 sums are Mechanical growth Remote countryside popula on, % < 0.00 decreased 0.00 − 1.14 normal growth Remote countryside population (Herders) are 1.14 < mechanical growth decreased and more inconstant Poverty at sum level, 2000, Uvurkhangai
KharhorinХархорин 42.80 Poverty by sums, Uvurkhangai. 2000 Хужирт Khujirt 35.50 Бат-Өлзий Bat-Ulzii 34.60 Spatial relation for poverty and total BogdБогд 33.30 livestock loss by sums. UyangaУянга 30.10 Нарийнтээл Nariinteel 30.10 43 KhairhandulaanХайрхандулаан 30.10 Harhorin Baruunbayan-UlaanБаруунбаян-Улаан 29.10 39 Khujirt GuchinГучин-Ус -Us 29.10 Bat-Ulzii Baruunbayan- Zuunbayan-UlaanЗүүнбаян-Улаан 28.80 35 Ulaan Bogd он Есөн зүйл Esunzuil 27.90 ) Hairhandulaan Uyanga Guchunis Өлзийт Ulziit 27.90 31 Nariinteel Rural poverty Сант Sant 27.00 Zuunbayan- at Na onal TugtugТөгрөг 27.00 2002/2003 Burd Bayan-Undur ( 27 Ulaan level 43.4 BayangolБаянгол 27.00 Tugrug
Тарагт Taragt 27.00 [CELLREF] Bayangol 23 Esunzuil Bayan-Баян-Өндөр Undur 25.50 Poverty at Na onal , % , 2000, Бүрд Burd 25.50 19 average 36.1 y = 138.65x + 20.367 Арвайхээр Arvaiheer 15.50 Arvaiheer R² = 0.20, r=0.45 Poverty 14 19 24 29 34 39 44 15 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.1 Poverty, %, 2000 (2002/2003) Total livestock loss, million.head, 2000-2003
Source: Mongolia Census-based Poverty Map in 2000: Region, aimag and sun level. 2009. National Statistical Office, Mongolia & UNDP Poverty at sum level, 2010, Uvurkhangai
Poverty by sums, BogdБогд 52.9 Uvurkhangai. 2000 Baruunbayan-UlaanБаруунбаян-Улаан 50.1 GuchinГучин-Us -Ус 50.1 UyangaУянга 48 НарийнтээлNariinteel 48 KhairhandulaanХайрхандулаан 48 БатBat--ӨлзийUlzii 47.2 СантSant 46.7 TugtugТөгрөг 46.7 BayangolБаянгол 46.7 TaragtТарагт 46.4 ЕсөнEsunzuil зүйл 45.8 ӨлзийтUlziit 45.8 Rural poverty at KhujirtХужирт 45.1 National level 47.8 Bayan-Баян-UndurӨндөр 44.7 BurdБүрд 44.7 Зүүнбаян-Улаан 44.4 Zuunbayan-Ulaan Poverty at National KharhorinХархорин 42.4 average 39.2 ArvaiheerАрвайхээр 41.1 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 Poverty, %, 2010 Bank saving by sums, Uvurkhangai
Bank saving, million.tug, Average annual growth of Bank Bank saving per capita person, average of 2010-2013 saving, %, from 2010 to 2013 thousand.tug, average of 2010-2013 Livestock number per capita person Livestock number, per capita person by sheep.unit, avarege of 2003-2013
Бүрд Burd 107 GuchinГучин ус -Us 104 Bayan-Баян-Өндөр Undur 96 Өлзийт Ulziit 88 BayangolБаянгол 88 Baruunbayan-UlaanБага Баян-Улаан 86 BogdБогд 86 Сант Sant 83 Livestock number per KhairhandulaanХайрхандулаан 83 capita person by Нарийн тээл Nariinteel 75 sheep.unit, avarege of TugtugТөгрөг 73 2003-2013 EsunzuilЗүйл 70 Тарагт Taragt 63 Zuunbayan-UlaanЗүүн Баян-Улаан 50 Бат-Өлзий Bat-Ulzii 47 Хужирт Khujirt 47 UyangaУянга 42 KharhorinХархорин 26 Арвайхээр Arvaiheer 6 - 20 40 60 80 100 120 Livestock number, per capita person, sheep.unip Vulnerability assessment, Uvurkhangai aimag Combined ecological vulnerability Combined social vulnerability assessment by sums assessment by sums
Legend Legend Sum center Sum center Sum boundary Sum boundary Vulnerability index Vulnerability index Integrated vulnerability assessment of social-ecological systems by sums
0.550 Zuunbayan Ulaan Average value of the environmental Khujirt vulnerability index is 0.310 0.500 Average value of the social and economic Sant vulnerability index is 0.417 Ulziit Taragt Guchin Us 0.450 Uyanga Bat Ulzii Bogd Arvaikheer Khaikhandulaan Bayan Undur
Social vulnerability index index vulnerability Social 0.400 Tugrug Kharkhorin BayangolBaruunbayan Esunzuil Ulaan Burd 0.350
0.300 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500 0.600 0.700
Ecological vulnerability index Arkhangai aimag: Some Result of Analysis and Vulnerability assessment Livestock loss by sums, average of 1990-2013, Arkhangai Dynamic of livestock loss and drought-zud index for 1990-2013, Arkhangai HotontХотонт 7.45 Ulziit HashaatХашаат 6.45 8.00 35.00
2.32 29.66 1.19 30.21 TuvshruulehТөвшрүүлэх 6.37 4.00 0.09 -1.55 30.00 Өлзийт Ulziit 6.30 0.00 -3.90 -5.58 (∆S) 25.00 ErdenebulganЭрдэнэбулган 5.92 , -4.00 -8.97 sheep.unit
-8.00 , TsahirЦахир 5.86 20.00 index -14.26 TsenherЦэнхэр 5.77 -12.00 -10.77 , % zud -11.67 15.00 TsetserlegЦэцэрлэг 5.63 -16.00
Өгийнуур Ugiinuur 5.46 -20.00 8.07 10.00 -25.42 6.31 5.42 Жаргалант Jargalant 4.70 -24.00 Drought- 4.09 4.33 2.09 2.83 5.00 Ba sengelБатцэнгэл 4.68 -28.00 0.73 0.73 1.59 Livestock loss Тариат Tariat 4.58 -32.00 0.00 BulganБулган 4.49 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Undur-ulaanӨндөр-Улаан 4.38 Он Малын зүй бус хорогдол, % Ган-зудын индекс, ∆S ErdenemandalЭрдэнэмандал 3.70 Livestock loss, % Drought-zud index Ихтамир Ih-tamir 3.65 HairhanХайрхан 3.44 HangaiХангай 3.12 Spa al rela on for drought-zud index and livestock ChuluutЧулуут 2.99 loss by sums, Arkhangai, average of 1995-2013
2.50 3.50 4.50 5.50 6.50 7.50 9.00 y = 0.01x2 + 0.28x + 6.33 Hotont Livestock loss, %, sheep.unit 8.00 R² = 0.26, r=0.51
7.00 Tuvshruuleh 35.00 Ulziit sheep.unit Tsetserleg y = 0.02x2 + 0.72x + 8.26 , Erdenebulgan Hashaat 30.00 R² = 0.10, r=0.31 6.00 Ugii-nuur Undur-Ulaan 25.00 , % Tariat Tsahir Ba sengel
sheep.unit 20.00 5.00 , Bulgan Jargalant Rela on for Livestock loss Erdenemandal
, % 15.00 4.00 Ih-tamir and drought-zud index for Hangai Chuluut 10.00 Hairhan 1990-2013, Arkhangai 5.00 3.00
Livestock loss -15.00 -12.00 -9.00 -6.00 -3.00 0.00 3.00 0.00 -30.00 -25.00 -20.00 -15.00 -10.00 -5.00 0.00 5.00 Livestock loss Drought-zud index, (∆S) Drought-zud index, (∆S) Vulnerability assessment, Arkhangai aimag
Combined ecological vulnerability Combined social vulnerability assessment by sums assessment by sums Integrated vulnerability assessment of
social-ecological systems by sums 0.500
Khotont 0.450 Tuvshruuleh Tsetserleg Jargalant Undur Ulaan Tsenkher Chuluut 0.400 KhangaiIkh Tamir Khashaat Tariat 0.350 Ugiinuur TsakhirErdenemandal Average value of the Khairkhan social and economic Battsengel vulnerability is 0.471 Social vulnerability index index vulnerability Social Bulgan Ulziit 0.300
Average value of the environmental vulnerability index 0.250 is 0.291 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 Ecological vulnerability index Discussion & Coopera on
• We iden fied more vulnerabili es areas and sectors in the Five aimags by this research. • The results of this study is giving good messages for the policy makers • More vulnerable sums are need to implement green policy such as increasing “green” budget, to develop capacity of adapta on and resilience, to decrease the vulnerability and to coordinate the policy plan and budget based on this research. • Iden fy needs of FREEZING SYSTEM in which sum to linking vulnerability and adapta on op ons. Thank you very much for your a en on. Баярлалаа... Livestock risk based on livestock loss during drought and zud years
Б-Баян-Улаан 72 Гучин ус 67 Нарийн тээл 66 Богд 66 Бүрд 62 Хайрхандулаан 60 Баян-Өндөр 59 Өлзийт 47 Баянгол 40 Зүйл 34 Уянга 28 Сант 28 Төгрөг 27 Бат-Өлзий 27 Хужирт 25 Тарагт 22 З-Баян-Улаан 15 Хархорин 13 Арвайхээр 3
0 20 40 60 80 Нэг хүнд ногдох мал, хон.тол/ хүн