Project title: Vulnerability Assessment for Social- MINISTRY OF Ecological Systems and Policy Recommendation for ENVIRONMENTAL, GREEN Green Development Policy for 5 aimags at Local NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT DEVELOPMENT & TOURISM, Level MONGOLIA INSTITUTE OF MONGOLIA Khovd, Uvurkhangai, Arkhangai, Khentii and Bulgan Vulnerability Assessment of 5 Green Aimags: Case of Uvurkhangai & Arkhangai M.Altanbagana, T.Chuluun & B.Suvdantsetseg National Development Institute of Mongolia Institute for Sustainable Development, NUM Tokyo Jan 13-15, 2015 Contents • Research Objec,ve & Study Areas • Indicators & Design of Vulnerability Assessment • Result of Vulnerability Assessment & Analysis at Sum Level (Case of Uvurhangai, Arhangai aimags) • Ecological vulnerability • Social vulnerability • Integrated Vulnerability Assessment of Social-Ecological Syatems • Dissociaon & cooperaon Research Objec1ve Secon I Secon II Secon III Analysis & Vulnerability Assessment Analysis of local Development Plan and Policy Recommendation of Green • Analysis for indicators of Ecological Budget each 5 aimags and Sum level Development Policy for 5 aimags and Social systems • To idenJfy the Green development • Syntheses and Conclusion • Relaon analyze for vulnerability Criterion for local level • Result of Vulnerability Assessment indicators • Analyze of Local Development Plan By • Analysis of local Development Plan • Ecological & Social Vulnerability Green development Criterion and Budget Assessment By each sums of 5 aimags • Analyze of Local Budget By Green • Result of field survey • Integrated assessment for development Criterion vulnerability analyze of social- • Field survey in selected sums ecological systems in sum level Study areas: Khovd, Uvurkhangai, Arkhangai, Khentii and Bulgan Indicators for selec$ng sums Ø Ecological region Ø Popula>on Total 86 sums of 5 aimags Ø Remoteness Ø Infrastructure Uvurkhangai aimag have 19 sums General schema of Vulnerability assessment Environmental indicators Drought & Zud Combine to indicators of NDVI ecological Desertification Surface water loss Integrated vulnerability assessment of Another variables social-ecological systems Social indicators Poverty Combine to indicators of Livestock loss social Unemployment Migration Another variables Ecological indicators Unit of Method of Level № Indicators Indicators Date Combine 1 Dougth, Zud index Index 1995-2013 2 Vegetaon index (NDVI), May to Oct average Index 1998-2013 3 DeserJficaon Percent 2010 4 Surface water loss Percent 2011 Sum Geometric level 5 Pasture use index Index 1990-2013 mean 6 Land degradaon (wind erosion, soil Loss) Percent 2010 Prepared forage and hay cung 7 kg/sheep.unit 2011-2013 (per capita livestock) 8 Livestock loss Percent 1990-2013 9 Air polluJon mg/m3 2004-2013 Aimag ArithmeJc 10 Water polluJon mg/l 2011-2013 level mean 11 Soil polluon mg/kg 2011-2013 Indicators of Social systems at sum level Method of Level № Indicators Unit of Indicators Date Combine 1 Crop products (per capita person) kg/person 2011-2013 1989-2000, 2 Migraon, Populaon changes (growth & decrease) Percent 2000-2012 3 Unemployment Percent 2012-2013 4 Poverty Percent 2000, 2010 Sum 5 Bank saving (per capita person) tug/person 2010-2013 ArithmeJc level mean Livestock risk Based on livestock loss during drought and zud Sheep.unit/ 6 years 2013 person Ган-зудын эрсдлийг тооцсон нэг хүнд ногдох мал Sheep.unit/ 7 Livestock per capita person 2002-2013 person 8 NumBer of Doctor and medical nurse (per capita person) Percent 2002-2013 9 In-paents numBer in hospital Percent 2002-2013 Uvurkhangai aimag: Some Result of Analysis and Vulnerability assessment Dynamics of drought, zud and integrated drought-zud in Uvurkhangai aimag Drought Zud 6.00 4.81 4.78 20.00 14.54 5.00 y = -0.49x + 7.36 4.00 3.15 15.00 3.00 2.12 1.82 1.68 10.00 2.00 0.93 1.03 6.52 0.20 2.84 3.72 1.00 -0.42 5.00 2.13 0.00 -0.15 -1.00 Zud index 0.00 Drought index -2.00 -2.82 -5.00 -1.91 -3.00 y = -0.06x + 1.85 -4.37 -4.00 -10.00 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1997 2004 2007 years years In dynamic of drought index from 1995 to 2013 when the highest value If zud index shown minus value that means observed more zud. In was 4.81 in 2000 and 4.78 in 2001. dynamic of zud index from 1995 to 2013 when the lowest value of zud index was -1.91 in 2000 and -4.37 in 2010. 10.00 6.71 6.29 3.30 5.00 2.24 -1.02 -0.26 -1.11 0.00 -3.87 -3.23 index In dynamic of drought-zud zud -5.00 index from 1995 to 2013 when y = 0.43x - 5.51 Integrated -10.00 the highest value of drought- zud index was 6.71 in 2000 drought-zud -15.00 Drought- and 6.29 in 2010. -20.00 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 years Livestock loss, Uvurkhangai aimag Livestock loss by each sums, average of 1990-2013 ZuunBayan-UlaanЗүүнбаян-Улаан 9.25 Арвайхээр Arvaiheer 8.51 Тарагт Taragt 7.47 Dynamic of livestock loss for Bayan-Баян-Өндөр Undur 7.10 1990-2013 at aimag level KharhorinХархорин 6.87 EsunzuilЗүйл 6.75 45.97 48.00 Өлзийт Ulziit 6.62 42.00 Хужирт Khujirt 6.60 36.00 Сант Sant 6.44 30.00 26.33 UyangaУянга 6.28 sheep.unit 24.00 TugtugТөгрөг 5.81 , %, 18.00 14.87 Бат-Өлзий Bat-Ulzii 5.64 12.00 Бүрд Burd 5.31 5.63 2.12 2.83 3.42 GuchinГучин ус -Us 5.19 6.00 1.11 0.82 0.54 0.95 1.01 0.61 Livestock loss 0.00 BayangolБаянгол 5.07 BaruunBayan-UlaanБаруунбаян-Улаан 5.03 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 KhairhandulaanХайрхандулаан 4.66 Нарийн тээл Nariinteel 4.49 In dynamic of livestock loss from 1990 to BogdБогд 4.02 2013 when high value was 26.3% in 2000 4.00 5.50 7.00 8.50 10.00 and 45.9 in 2010. Livestock loss, 1990-2013, %, sheep.unit 10.00 45.97 50.00 6.71 6.29 45.00 5.00 3.30 40.00 2.24 5.33 35.00 0.00 index -1.02 30.00 -0.26 sheep.unit Analysis between drought- -2.79 26.33 -1.11 zud -5.00 25.00 zud index and livestock loss 18.86 , %, -7.73 20.00 -10.00 14.87 in Uvurkhangai aimag level 15.00 Drought- 10.00 -15.00 5.63 3.51 2.74 1.03 1.77 1.01 0.61 5.00 -20.00 0.00 Livestock loss 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 1997 2001 2002 2003 2004 2007 2011 2012 2013 years Малын зүй бус хорогдол, % Livestock loss, % Ган-зудын индекс, ∆S Drought-zud index 50.00 y = 0.14x2 + 2.06x + 5.33 40.00 R² = 0.53, r=0.73 The results of dynamical analysis shown that drought-zud index 30.00 were increased and the number of livestock loss were increased. sheep.unit 20.00 Correlation coefficient was 0.73 for 1995-2013. , %, 10.00 0.00 -10.00 Livestock loss -20.00 -15.00 -10.00 -5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 Drought-zud index Prepared forage and hay cuBng at sum level Хархорин Kharhorin 18.46 Зүүнбаян-Улаан ZuunBayan-Ulaan 17.02 Бат-Өлзий Bat-Ulzii 13.60 Арвайхээр Arvaiheer 12.11 Prepared forage and Сант Sant 11.49 hay cung per capita Тарагт Taragt 10.47 livestock for average Хужирт Khujirt 10.35 of 2011-2013 (kg/ Есөнзүйл Esunzuil 9.96 sheep.unit) Өлзийт Ulziit 9.49 Нарийнтээл Nariinteel 8.28 Хайрхандулаан Khairhandulaan 8.21 Төгрөг Tugtug 8.11 Баруунбаян-Улаан BaruunBayan-Ulaan 7.53 UyangaУянга 6.91 Баянгол Bayangol 5.51 GuchinГучин-Ус -Us 5.33 Бүрд Burd 4.46 Баян-Өндөр Bayan-Undur 3.65 Богд Bogd 2.01 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 Prepared forage and hay cung, kg/sheep.unit VegetaDon index (NDVI), Uvurkhangai NDVI by sums, average of Бат-Өлзий Bat-Ulzii 0.46 1998-2013 Хужирт Khujirt 0.39 KharhorinХархорин 0.37 UyangaУянга 0.36 ZuunBayan-UlaanЗүүнбаян-Улаан 0.33 Бүрд Burd 0.33 Dynamic of NDVI for 1998-2013 Есөн зүйл Esunzuil 0.30 Өлзийт Ulziit 0.26 0.32 0.30 Bayan-Баян-Өндөр Undur 0.24 0.30 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.27 Тарагт Taragt 0.24 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.24 Хайрхандулаан 0.24 0.23 Khairhandulaan NDVI 0.24 0.22 Нарийнтээл Nariinteel 0.23 0.22 y = 0.002x + 0.24 0.20 Сант Sant 0.18 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 BayangolБаянгол 0.18 years GuchinГучин-ус -Us 0.14 TugtugТөгрөг 0.13 BaruunBayan-UlaanБаруунбаян- 0.13 BogdБогд 0.12 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 NDVI, average of 1998-2013 Surface water distribuDon and dry-up in sums by ecological regions, Uvurkhangai aimag Mineral Lake River Spring water Well Khujirt F o r e s t Kharhorin steppe Uyanga Bat-Ulzii Khairhandulaan Taragt Ulziit Nariinteel Steppe ZuunBayan-Ulaan Esunzuil Burd Bayan-Undur Arvaiheer Sant Dry steppe Bayangol Tugtug Gobi Guchin-Us Bogd BaruunBayan-Ulaan Dried Total Source: Surface water count data . 2011. Ministry of Environment, Green Development and Tourism, Mongolia Deserficaon & land degradaon of Uvurkhangai aimag Source: Desertification Atlas. 2010. Geoecology Institute, Mongolian Academy of Science & Environmental Information Center, National Agency of Meterlogy and Environmental Monitoring.