Annual Report 2015 Presented at the 67th Ifo Annual Meeting on 28 April 2016 Published in 2016 for the Ifo Institute Poschingerstr. 5, 81679 Munich, Postbox 860460, 81631 Munich, Germany Phone: +49/(0)89/9224-0, Fax: +49/(0)89/985369 Internet: http://www.cesifo-group.de; email: [email protected] ISSN: 2194-928X Editor: Marga Jennewein Translations: Lisa Giani Contini Printing: Ifo Institute Ifo Annual Report 2015 Page The Goals and Tasks of the Ifo Institute . 7 Report of the Executive Board . 10 Research and Service Departments Ifo Center for Public Finance and Political Economy . 25 Ifo Center for Labour Market Research and Family Economics . 29 Ifo Center for the Economics of Education . 33 Ifo Center for Industrial Organisation and New Technologies . 48 Ifo Center for Energy, Climate and Exhaustible Resources . 60 Ifo Center for International Economics . 67 Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys . 79 Ifo Center for International Institutional Comparisons and Migration Research . 90 Ifo Center of Excellence for Migration and Integration Research – CEMIR . 94 Library . 98 Press, Publications, Conferences . 99 Dresden Branch . 109 Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research – CESifo GmbH . 123 Conferences, Publications and External Relations of the Ifo Institute . 129 Personnel, Finances and Organisational Bodies Personnel Development . 133 Financial Development . 139 Organisation of the Ifo Institute . 142 3 Ifo Annual Report 2015 The Ifo Institute 2015 The Goals and Tasks of the Ifo Institute Since its foundation in January 1949 Ifo has provided meet the highest academic standards and contributes both information and research, hence its name Ifo = to policy advice and the economic-policy debate. It is Information and Forschung (research). Its legal form committed to providing services for research and the is that of a registered, non-profi t association. The Ifo general public. In addition, Ifo intensively promotes Institute is one of Europe’s leading economic research junior researchers in economics. institutes and is also the most frequently cited insti- tute in the media. A cooperation agreement links Ifo Research at the Ifo Institute is guided by setting social- closely with the University of Munich (LMU), and in ly recognised goals. These targets include maintaining 2002 Ifo was offi cially proclaimed an “Institute at the the performance levels of the social market economy, Goal of economic stability University of Munich”. rising to the demographic challenges ahead, ensuring informs Ifo’s research the stability of the economy and the fi nancial system, The Center for Economic Studies (CES) of the LMU, surviving global competition against a background of the Ifo Institute and the Munich Society for the Pro- growing technological change and protecting the en- motion of Economics – CESifo GmbH pool their re- vironment. sources within the CESifo Group to form an inter- national research alliance. The group aims to enrich Like all other Leibniz institutions, the Ifo Institute is the public debate based on excellent theoretical and subject to tough evaluations that are conducted once empirical economics research, to support economic every seven years by the Leibniz Association Senate. policy-making decisions with high-quality policy ad- As in past evaluations, the Ifo Institute also performed vice, and to provide the public with highly-regarded excellently in its latest evaluation, which was com- economic information like the Ifo Business Climate pleted with the Statement of the Leibniz Association Index. The research activities of the CESifo Group dated 17 July 2013. are closely related to extensive contributions in terms of teaching and promoting junior economists, which In this statement the Leibniz Senate established that involves close cooperation between the Ifo Institute the Ifo Institute had very successfully achieved its and the LMU. At the heart of the CESifo Group is the mandate of conducting: “applied policy-oriented eco- CESifo researcher network, which consists of former nomic research, providing research results, data and CES guest researchers. information to interested individuals from academia, business, politics and the general public.” It found that Leibniz Senate describes As a member of the Leibniz Association the Ifo Institute the Ifo Institute makes: “signifi cant research contribu- Ifo as a leading economic is an institution that receives public funding from the tions that are internationally recognised and acts as research institute federal and state governments on the basis of Article an important bridge between academic research and 91b of the German Constitution. On 1 September 2011 policy advisory work […] The amount of research, the name of the Ifo Institute was modifi ed by means of service and advisory work done has developed excel- a change to its Articles of Association. Since then its of- lently. The Ifo Institute is now one of Europe’s leading fi cial name has been: Ifo Institute – Leibniz Institute for economic research institutes.” Economic Research at the University of Munich. The Leibniz Senate and the international group of ex- Ifo is an independent institution that makes its ser- perts commissioned by it attest the institute’s excel- vices available to all groups of society regardless of lent performance at all levels and in all fi elds of work – their political orientation. It is a European think tank from research and policy advisory work to services, the that serves as a bridge between academic research promotion of junior researchers and infrastructure. The and practical politics. It concentrates on applied, work done in the Ifo Institute’s eight research depart- policy-oriented economic research with the goal ments was evaluated as very good overall, and as ex- of achieving greater stability, growth and societal co- cellent in some cases. The quantity and quality of the hesion. The research of the Ifo Institute increasingly institute’s publications has improved further since the deals with European and global issues. It strives to last evaluation and is now excellent. 7 Ifo Annual Report 2015 The Goals and Tasks Ifo’s 8 research centers – Public Finance and Political The report (2013) of the Leibniz Senate group of Economy, Labour Market Research and Family Econom- experts states: “As part of its policy advisory work, ics, The Economics of Education, Industrial Organisation Ifo participates very actively in public debates over and New Technologies, Energy, Climate and Exhaust- the best economic policy ideas and concepts. With ible Resources, International Economics, International its research results and policy recommendations, it is Institutional Comparisons and Migration Research and helping to develop reform ideas and make Germany Business Cycle analysis and Surveys – cover research fi t for the future.” Ifo’s policy work is also refl ected in topics that are also highly relevant for policy advice. The a large number of expert reports commissioned by Ifo Dresden branch, founded in 1993, works in areas public and private sector clients on topical economic that are of special interest to the Free State of Saxony, policy issues. Ifo was among the institutes to submit a from which it receives its funding. successful bid for the joint economic forecast tender, issued for the fi rst time at a European level in 2007; In its international activities the Ifo Institute cooper- and bid successfully again in the 2010 and 2013 ten- ates very closely with CESifo GmbH and the CESifo ders. The Ifo Institute also makes its expertise avail- researcher network supervised by the latter. As the able to the public sector institutions of other coun- Leibniz Senate confi rmed in its Statement of 17 July tries – especially in those states that do not belong 2013, CESifo GmbH has an important role to play to the OECD. in the cooperation between the Ifo Institute and the CESifo raises Ifo’s Center for Economic Studies (CES) at the LMU. The In addition to its research and policy advice, the Ifo international profi le cooperation with CESifo is an important element in Institute also provides the public with data, informa- the international profi le of the scientifi c research con- tion and other services. This takes place especially in ducted by Ifo and the LMU. connection with its project-related and its regular surveys of national and international business. Every Ifo’s junior research staff also benefi t tremendously month, the Ifo Business Climate Index, an established from the network effects within the CESifo Group. leading indicator of the business cycle derived from Ifo employs 40 doctoral students, most of which par- the Ifo Business Survey, is awaited with great antici- ticipate in the institute’s graduate programme and pation by the media, investors, and business leaders. are also members of the Munich Graduate School of The results of the Ifo World Economic Survey, the Economics (MGSE) at the University of Munich. Ifo’s Institute’s quarterly poll of international economic doctoral programme is particularly attractive thanks activity in 120 countries, are published in the CESifo to the fact that it combines academic research with World Economic Survey, a journal launched in 2002. the institute’s practical, policy-orientation. Since its launch in 1999, the Database for Institutional Comparisons in Europe (DICE), which currently con- The scientifi c research carried out at the Ifo Institute tains around 3,800 tables, graphs and short reports, is subject to the “Rules of good scientifi c practice” has grown signifi cantly and enriched the range of ser- drafted by the German Research Foundation (DFG), vices provided by the Ifo Institute. Since the beginning as well as to the gender equality standards estab- of 2003 the results of these institutionally oriented lished by it. The Ifo Institute is seeking to gradually studies and comparative presentations of institutional Ifo addresses the under- address the existing under-representation of women regulations have been published in the quarterly jour- representation of female among its researchers through its particularly inten- nal, CESifo DICE Report.