Appalachian Regional
Commission Study: Economic Impacts and Effects of Coal Mining in
Northeastern Pennsylvania
Executive Summary
A partnership among Geisinger Commonwealth School of Medicine, Johnson College, Keystone College, King’s College, Marywood University, Misericordia University, Penn State Scranton, Penn State Wilkes-Barre, The Wright Center, University of Scranton and Wilkes University
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Page 2 Table of Contents Executive Summary ...... 4 Region and Overview ...... 4 History of Coal Mining in the Study Area ...... 7 Anthracite Mining Statistics ...... 8 Economic Impact Analysis ...... 12 Reliance on Coal-Industry Ecosystem ...... 18 Community Impacts of Blight ...... 19 Railroad Industry Impact ...... 23 Health Impacts and Loss of Human Capital ...... 25 Environmental Impacts ...... 26 Research Methodology ...... 33 Economic Modeling Methodology ...... 33 Historical, Environmental, and Ancillary Data ...... 35
This study was supported by a grant from the Appalachian Regional Commission in order to evaluate the impact of the loss of coal production in northeastern Pennsylvania.
Research Team The Institute for Public Policy and Economic Development Teri Ooms, Executive Director Andrew Chew, Senior Research & Policy Analyst Christopher Ritter, Research Analyst Kara McGrane, Research Assistant Jill Avery-Stoss, Data, Research & Intern Coordinator William Gorman, Research Intern Shauna Leahy, Research Intern Jon Lanzaro-Fisher, Research Intern
Page 3 Executive Summary Northeastern Pennsylvania is commonly referred to as the “Coal Region;” it has the world’s largest reserves of anthracite coal. The landscape is covered with mines, culm banks, and abandoned or dilapidated patch towns. The regional identity is forever intertwined with coal and its subsequent demise. Coal helped shape transportation routes and networks throughout northeastern Pennsylvania, connecting it to New York, New York City, Philadelphia, and Baltimore. It helped shape labor movements locally and nationally, which resulted in the United Mine Workers of America enacting legislation that ended child labor in the mines. Region and Overview Pennsylvania’s coal industry produces two types of coal – bituminous coal in west and northeast, used produce electric power, and anthracite coal in the northeast, used by the iron and steel industry. Anthracite coal is exposed to a larger audience – the international export market.
Referred to commonly as the “Coal Region,” Northeastern Pennsylvania is home to mines in which one can find anthracite coal taking up 484 square miles. Though this number represents only 6.1 percent of the study region’s total square miles, it has created a huge and lasting impact since the first discovery of coal in Luzerne County in 1775. In fact, the area still produces 3,072,129 tons of coal1 annually and 14,596,698 tons of minerals (2017). The Commonwealth’s anthracite industry was vital to the region and to larger metropolitan areas. Following the War of 1812, for instance, the British restricted coal exports to the U.S. so New York relied on NEPA for deliveries via rail and canal.
The 13-county region consists of only anthracite fields save some low-volatile bituminous coal from the North Central fields in Bradford County, shown below. Sullivan and Wyoming Counties are home to semi-anthracite coal from the Western Northern Anthracite field, and parts of Susquehanna, Wayne, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Columbia, Schuylkill, and Carbon counties are home to anthracite coal in the Northern, Eastern Middle, and Southern Anthracite Fields. It is estimated that Pennsylvania had 22.8 billion tons of anthracite in its original reserves.
1 66,453 tons from anthracite underground mines and 3,005,676 tons from surface mining Page 4
Distribution of Pennsylvania Coals - Map from PA Department of Conservation and Natural Resources.
Detail on 13 county region from the map above.
Page 5 There are two types of coal mining prevalent in the 13-county region – underground and surface mining. The use of the two methods depend on the depth of a given coal seam. Surface mining is more predominant in the anthracite regions, especially with deep mining having ended in the mid-20th century. In 2013, only Columbia and Schuylkill Counties used underground mining operations, and only Schuylkill County did so by 2017.
Underground mining involves opening shafts into the earth in order to reach coal seams that are too deep to reach using surface mining methods. There are two standard underground mining methods – room-and-pillar and longwall mining. Surface mining is an option when coal seams are closer to the surface of the earth. There are two methods of this type of mining – strip mining and highwall mining. In the former, rock and soil is first removed to access coal. The area is filled once the coal has been mined. Highwall mining involves the removal of coal via excavators or by an auger while leaving the surrounding rock intact.
Pennsylvania’s coal mining industry began in the mid -1700s and grew across the nation. It was used to power the steel and industrial age. As Pennsylvania’s coal industry thrived, homes, businesses and towns developed around the mines. These towns are commonly referred to as coal towns, or more specifically, patch towns (if the name was associated with a particular mine). Many were owned by the coal companies and were built out of necessity near mines to house miners and their families. In the early 1900s, around one-third of anthracite miners lived in company-owned towns.
Coal miners in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia went on strike in 1897. The strike brought about the abolition of company stores.2 Concrete City (Nanticoke, Luzerne County), an example of industrial housing, was built by the D L & W Railroad’s Coal division. It was opened in 1913 to house workers; after 1921 it was controlled by the Glen Alden Company and then abandoned in 1924.3 Deep mining in the Wyoming Valley ended following the Knox Mine Disaster in 1959.
Many towns, such as Lausanne in Carbon County, Barclay in Bradford County, and Eckley in Luzerne County, have been abandoned as a result of loss of the coal industry. Towns such as Centralia in Columbia County were abandoned due to environmental concerns caused by mining. Some met both fates – Byrnesville, in Columbia County, saw a decrease in population following the fall of coal in the 1930s and then became victim to the nearby Centralia fire.
Though not abandoned, some patch towns experienced increasing vacancy rates. The following are former coal towns with populations greater than 2,000 people, along with their high vacancy rates: Shenandoah, 28.9 percent; Mahanoy city, 26.3 percent; Ashland, 22.4 percent; Lansford, 20.8 percent; Plymouth, 18 percent; McAdoo, 17.2 percent; Coaldale, 16.7 percent; and Frackville, 16.2 percent.4
There are 840 abandoned mine lands (AML) listed by the Commonwealth’s Department of Environmental Protection. The state has led the nation with mining laws and regulations to ensure that reclamation occurs after mining is finished. The Department’s AML Economic Revitalization Pilot Project benefitted various locations in the 13-county region (Carbon, Schuylkill, Luzerne, and Lackawanna Counties), with four of the six projects taking place in or in part of Schuylkill County. 5
2 Lumpkins, Charles. “Timeline of Labor History in Pennsylvania.” Pennsylvania Labor History Society. Available at:
Anthracite impacted the region in a multitude of ways. In addition to creating a massive energy economy and industry, it created a sense of identity for the area. The aforementioned moniker ‘Coal Region’ is held dear to many in the area. The industry also negatively impacted the region in different ways, however. From health and human capital to the environment, infrastructure, employment, and taxes, the area is still paying for the industry that dissipated 70 years ago.
History of Coal Mining in the Study Area The Appalachian coal is buried deep underground, so mining it is often difficult and expensive. Appalachian coal production declined with the development of cheaper means to mine coal in other areas of the country. These trends contributed to an ongoing erosion of coal mining employment and further depressing of Pennsylvania’s small and rural coal towns.
Coal was discovered in the area in 1775 near Pittston (Luzerne County), and the first mine was subsequently opened.6 The following individual county descriptions highlight particular histories and the overall history further. Approximately 15,000 square miles (33 percent of the state) overlie coal deposits (both anthracite and bituminous)7 and five million people live over abandoned mine sites. 8 More than one million homes sit atop abandoned mines (2017).9
Pennsylvania led the coal market until 1927. Mining suffered a dip in industry in the early 20th century, particularly during the Great Depression, followed by a revival thanks to World Wars – especially World War II. Increased labor costs and depleting reserves eventually prompted the continued decline of coal mining. There was also a shift in industries and heating sources. Anthracite coal mining saw a large decline because it was primarily used to heat residential properties, and its use decreased as prices of natural gas decreased. With the abrupt end of coal mining following the rise of natural gas and other heating sources, companies shuttered and mines were abandoned, leaving behind a vast legacy of environmental hazards and cleanup – which is ongoing and will continue for the foreseeable future.
Although the decrease of coal mining has occurred for decades, the rise of Marcellus Shale natural gas resources expedited the decline. Pennsylvania found cheaper and abundant natural gas extraction from the earth by various machines, which aided small number of workers. This process quickly reduced coal demand, production, and employment that formerly prompted economic development. The subsequent use of natural gas has created devastating effects for people, businesses, and towns that still depend on coal mining. In 2015, over 29 percent of all U.S. shale-based natural gas was produced in Pennsylvania (U.S. Energy Information Administration 2017).
Anthracite mining reached its peak, in terms of total coal production and number of employees, in 1913. A reported total of 91,626,964 tons of coal were produced by 175,310 employees. Though it was the most productive year, it was also the deadliest. A total of 624 people died in the mines that year. Coal refuse production is the only aspect of the industry that has experienced consistent increase in activity (save the difference between 2013 and 2017).
From height of mining (in terms of production and # of employees) to now Total Coal Total Coal Production Surface Coal Refuse Production (cubic Underground Mining Production Total Total Year (tons) yards)* Mining (tons) (tons) (tons) Employees Fatalities 1913 91,626,964 73,892,713 2,934,157 175,310 624 1926 83,874,500 67,640,726 1,365,175 168,734 455 1930 68,776,559 55,464,967 890,389 151,171 444 1935 51,359,111 41,418,638 4,962,514 1,876,700 100,539 267 1940 51,526,454 41,553,592 6,010,364 2,599,280 90,790 182 1945 55,901,235 45,081,641 10,521,174 9,454,205 76,265 137 1950 46,339,255 37,370,367 12,291,325 4,027,249 75,231 86 1955 25,934,792 20,915,155 7,826,029 3,618,121 37,397 60 1960 17,721,113 14,291,220 7,138,743 3,006,803 20,269 35 1965 14,229,817 11,475,659 5,996,536 2,611,189 11,839 8 1970 9,248,001 7,458,065 4,624,610 2,956,707 6,286 4 1975 5,628,741 4,539,307 2,511,703 2,520,415 3,877 1 1980 5,983,149 4,825,120 583,274 3,454,821 1,945,054 3,429 3 1985 5,228,623 4,216,631 753,719 3,428,652 1,046,252 3,225 6 1990 3,414,967 2,754,006 529,000 1,908,545 976,875 2,258 1 1995 8,758,150 7,063,024 358,000 2,485,784 5,845,060 2,179 4 2000 3,905,096 3,149,271 220,462 2,332,828 1,351,806 945 0 2005 6,462,579 5,211,757 189,899 2,049,173 4,223,507 697 1 2010 7,135,727 5,754,619 207,299 3,027,215 3,901,213 788 0 2013 9,193,903 7,414,438 87,889 4,590,820 4,515,194 1,064 0 2015 8,678,500 6,998,790 88,759 4,525,632 4,064,109 1,008 0 2017 7,637,605 6,159,359 77,151 3,249,477 4,310,977 837 1 Change From 1940 -43,888,849 -35,394,233 n/a -2,760,887 1,711,697 -89,953 -181 Change From 1950 -38,701,650 -31,211,008 n/a -9,041,848 283,728 -74,394 -85 Change From 1970 -1,610,396 -1,298,706 n/a -1,375,133 1,354,270 -5,449 -3 Change From 1980 1,654,456 1,334,239 -506,123 -205,344 2,365,923 -2,592 -2 Change From 1990 4,222,638 3,405,353 -451,849 1,340,932 3,334,102 -1,421 0 Change From 2000 3,732,509 3,010,088 -143,311 916,649 2,959,171 -108 1 Change From 2013 -1,556,298 -1,255,079 -10,738 -1,341,343 -204,217 -227 1 Page 8 The table below highlights the total anthracite production in the eastern part of Pennsylvania. Since 2013, all aspects of industry activities have declined – except for one death in 2017. There was a slight underground mining uptick in 2015 and 2016, as well as in 2015 for surface mining and overall employment, but the industry has continued to trend downward.
Anthracite Coal Mining Activities 1870 to 2017 - Historical Summary Total Coal Total Coal Surface Coal Refuse Production Production Underground Mining Production Total Year (tons) (cubic yards)* Mining (tons) (tons) (tons) Employees Total Fatalities 2013 9,193,903 7,414,438 87,889 4,590,820 4,515,194 1,064 0 2014 8,711,747 7,025,602 81,517 4,142,833 4,487,397 874 0 2015 8,678,500 6,998,790 88,759 4,525,632 4,064,109 1,008 0 2016 7,642,435 6,163,254 91,754 3,080,606 4,470,075 900 0 2017 7,637,605 6,159,359 77,151 3,249,477 4,310,977 837 1 2013-2017 -1,556,298 -1,255,079 -10,738 -1,341,343 -204,217 -227 1
Similar to production values, the price of anthracite was in a downward trend from its 1975 price in 2018 dollars to the real price in 2004. From 2005 to the present, there has been a non-linear increase of anthracite prices in both nominal and real dollars. Natural gas became a cost-effective option to heat residential homes in the 1980s. This coincides with the aforementioned price decline.
EIA Annual Energy Review 2011, Annual Coal Reports 2012-2018 Anthracite prices Anthracite Prices (continued) Year Nominal Real (in 2018 dollars) Year Nominal Real (in 2018 dollars) 1950 $9.34 $99.85 1994 $36.07 $61.98 1955 $8.00 $75.28 1995 $39.78 $66.49 1960 $8.01 $68.68 1996 $36.78 $59.85 1965 $8.51 $68.53 1997 $35.12 $55.46 1970 $11.03 $73.31 1998 $42.91 $66.71 1975 $32.26 $155.56 1999 $35.13 $53.72 1976 $33.92 $153.27 2000 $40.90 $60.87 1977 $34.86 $149.71 2001 $47.67 $68.40 1978 $35.25 $141.70 2002 $47.78 $67.78 1979 $41.06 $151.03 2003 $49.87 $68.95 1980 $42.51 $137.27 2004 $39.77 $53.95 1981 $44.28 $127.87 2005 $41.00 $54.01 1982 $49.85 $132.81 2006 $43.61 $55.25 1983 $52.29 $134.32 2007 $52.24 $64.84 1984 $48.22 $118.89 2008 $60.76 $72.32 1985 $45.80 $109.07 2009 $57.10 $67.94 1986 $44.12 $101.14 2010 $59.51 $69.00 1987 $43.65 $98.62 2011 $70.99 $80.99 1988 $44.16 $95.89 2012 $80.21 $88.90 1989 $42.93 $89.06 2013 $87.82 $95.81 1990 $39.40 $77.70 2014 $90.98 $97.72 1991 $36.34 $67.83 2015 $97.91 $105.25 1992 $34.24 $62.29 2016 $97.61 $103.51 1993 $32.94 $58.03 2017 $93.17 $96.39
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Generally the price of coal in the coal-producing counties has declined in between 2013 and 2017. Any county that does not have data in the table below either does not produce enough coal or did not produce any coal.
Change in Average Sales Price of Coal By State, County, and Number of Mines, 2013-2017 Coal-Producing Number of Sales (Thousand Short Average Sales Price Area Mines Tons) (Dollars Per Short Ton) Carbon -1 N/A N/A Columbia -1 N/A N/A Luzerne 0 -238 ($48.98) Schuylkill -5 122 $24.73 Regional -7 -116 ($24.25) PA -48 -4,690 ($14.05) US -272 -203,720 ($3.52) EIA Annual Report 2013 and 2017
The following tables show only the losses and gains of the counties within the 13-county region. The data tables show loss in count; change in percentage of mining operations can be found under individual county analyses.
Underground mining never had the same production value as surface mining and though it started with over half a million tons of coal produced, it has fallen to under 80,000 tons in the whole anthracite region. Throughout the study region, underground mining has declined in all aspects except the amount of surface acres in permitted mining operations. As of 2017, Columbia County no longer has any underground mining.
Anthracite Underground Mines Reporting Production, 2013-2017 Surface Total Tons Number of Hours Accidents County Permit Permit Acres Production Employees Worked Fatal Non-Fatal Columbia -1 -34.1 -12,907 -25 -15,072 0 -1 Schuylkill 0 52.1 -2,409 1 12,062 0 0 Total -1 18.0 -15,316 -24 -3,010 0 -1
Surface mining operations are still in operation today. Carbon County was the only county that saw overall increases since 2013. Lackawanna County gained two employees and Columbia and Schuylkill Counties gained acreage. Safety has also seemed to increase with 19 fewer non-fatal accidents occurring in 2017 compared to 2013.
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Anthracite Surface Mines Reporting Production 2013-2017 Accidents Permit Total Tons Explosives Number of Hours Non- County Permit Acres Production Used Employees Worked Fatal Fatal Carbon 1 210.0 80,993 326,146 2 11134 0 0 Columbia -2 133.0 -216,370 -1,253,822 -2 -2,484 0 1 Lackawanna 0 -582.3 -4,612 -42,549 2 -4,059 0 0 Luzerne -3 -2,521.9 -662,436 -279,126 -83 -118,035 0 -12 Schuylkill -7 2,206.3 -443,765 -1,873,597 -58 -144,064 0 -8 Total -9 -554.9 -1,246,190 -3,122,948 -139 -257,508 0 -19
Waste from coal mining is referred to as coal refuse. This refers to any materials – organic or inorganic – that are removed from a mine during the mining process. Clay and shale are considered coal refuse. Refuse also includes the excess produced from coal cleaning processes. In the anthracite region, coal refuse is known as culm, which comes from the Welsh term for anthracite coal.
Industry components varied in increases and decreases from county to county. Overall, there was an increase in acreage and decreases in total production, employees, and hours worked. Refuse production is inextricably linked to coal mining production, so it is unsurprising that it has generally decreased since 2013.
2013-2017 Anthracite Coal Refuse Production Surface Accidents Permit Total Tons Number of Hours County Permit Acres Production Employees Worked Fatal Non-Fatal Carbon 0 65.3 -1,766 2 6,467 0 0 Columbia 0 0 -22,654 1 -640 0 0 Lackawanna 0 -18.2 -3,863 2 1,569 0 0 Luzerne 3 1,798.3 248,588 -10 -8,568 0 0 Schuylkill -3 -947.0 -565,625 -31 -119,875 1 -9 Total 0 898.4 -345,320 -36 -121,047 1 -9
It should be noted that there are other types of mining in the 13-county region. Industrial mineral mining has seen increases in its production and economy since 2013. In contrast to coal mining, every county in the region has had a mineral mining operation since 2013. Though most indicators show overall increase in the industry, there is a decrease of 86 employees since 2013. Schuylkill County experienced the largest drop in number of employees, with 60 people no longer employed.
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2013-2017 Industrial Minerals Mines Hours Accidents Permit Total Tons Explosives Number of Non- County Permit Acres Production Used Employees Worked Fatal Fatal Bradford 6 -3 -492,196 -119,334 9 36,025 0 -1 Carbon -2 -216 -66,681 -25,128 -8 -1,505 0 0 Columbia 2 4 142,384 120,645 8 8,526 0 0 Lackawanna -1 -9 -2,473 71,173 3 -23,517 0 -7 Luzerne 6 1,694 1,389,319 719,549 34 134,314 0 5 Monroe 4 -376 37,701 410,378 -47 11,715 0 -1 Montour 0 139.5 135,947 63,150 0 25,144 0 0 Pike 10 79 245,975 26,015 29 17,799 0 0 Schuylkill 1 650 7,189 -8,972 -60 12,666 0 0 Sullivan -1 8 -225,703 -42,497 -5 5,990 0 0 Susquehanna 2 -160 -775,276 -308,229 -55 -31,281 0 -2 Wayne 25 98 512,953 603,751 29 -57,856 0 1 Wyoming 4 357 -179,123 176,648 -23 -8,123 0 -1 Total 56 2,127 658,777 1,687,149 -86 129,897 0 -6
Economic Impact Analysis The total effect of the loss of coal, its supply chain, adjacent industries, and fossil fuel generation from 2001 – 2018 in northeastern Pennsylvania exceeds $783 million and 1,426 jobs. Some counties have been hit more severely than others, but it is important to note that some counties’ loss of coal mining could not be measured because the loss was considered too small for the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to measure. This does not mean there was no loss. Even counties with positive impact from fossil fuel generation could net much smaller returns if coal mining was factored into the equation. Further, the impact of rail and blight is not factored into each county’s analysis. It is presented in the aggregate. Finally, it should be noted that these counties comprise a larger economic region; negative effects can still be felt across the county lines because commute patterns were not able to be factored into the models.
Total Effect Total Value State & Local Employment Labor Income Added Output Federal Taxes Taxes Total Bradford -317.4 ($17,197,077) ($55,948,909) ($118,945,434) ($6,112,846) ($11,490,709) ($209,695,292) Carbon -42.8 ($252,177) ($6,689,570) ($22,801,124) ($808,071) ($3,013,055) ($33,564,040) Columbia 23.2 $753,118 $2,911,551 $8,298,258 $259,071 $488,542 $12,710,563 Lackawanna 147.1 $11,821,455 $28,356,057 $62,850,101 $3,236,322 $6,144,460 $112,408,542 Luzerne -640.6 ($46,189,016) ($142,833,403) ($257,815,682) ($15,408,171) ($17,327,107) ($479,574,020) Monroe -354.5 ($20,106,507) ($48,249,726) ($107,986,917) ($4,911,563) ($11,548,222) ($192,803,290) Montour 108.9 $15,877,350 $43,508,452 $93,171,604 $5,058,474 $8,202,964 $165,818,953 Pike -46.5 ($2,048,425) ($5,973,265) ($14,507,672) ($600,316) ($1,600,033) ($24,729,758) Schuylkill 137.1 $9,103,680 $27,511,048 $64,574,001 $3,049,140 $6,048,116 $110,286,122 Sullivan 0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Susquehanna -77.4 ($4,167,557) ($14,641,231) ($30,288,692) ($1,580,475) ($2,942,106) ($53,620,138) Wayne -287.1 ($12,972,820) ($33,861,751) ($79,690,926) ($3,241,257) ($8,922,427) ($138,689,468) Wyoming -76 ($4,288,931) ($14,143,928) ($29,791,581) ($1,385,966) ($2,905,416) ($52,515,898) Total -1,426 ($69,666,907) ($220,054,675) ($432,934,064) ($22,445,658) ($38,864,993) ($783,967,723) Page | 12
Out of the thirteen counties comprising the geographic scope of this report, just four – Carbon, Columbia, Luzerne, and Schuylkill – are currently home to an active coal mining industry. But even these last holdouts of Northeastern Pennsylvania’s coal economy are not immune from the inexorable decline of the coal industry. From 2001 to 2018, the Coal Mining and Fossil Fuel Electric Power Generation industries in these four counties shed a total of 473 positions, either from within those industries or through supply chain vendors and other regional firms, as well as $36 million in lost labor income and $182.4 million in lost economic output. Jobs affected by this shift span a wide range of industries, from employment services and wholesale trade to market research and commercial repair and maintenance.
Total Economic Impact, Coal-Producing Counties Impact Type Employment Labor Income Value Added Output Direct Effect -167.0 ($18,352,906) ($66,736,484) ($140,628,357) Indirect Effect -119.8 ($9,781,135) ($21,466,204) ($18,472,494) Induced Effect -186.4 ($7,898,714) ($23,139,566) ($23,253,695) Total Effect -473.2 ($36,032,755) ($111,342,254) ($182,354,546)
Employment Impact of Coal and Coal-Adjacent Industries, Coal-Producing Counties Industry Sector Employment Labor Income Value Added Output Coal mining -97.9 ($7,131,545) ($27,820,752) ($46,848,393) Electric power generation - fossil fuel -90.9 ($12,069,742) ($44,753,769) ($116,609,740) Employment services -25.9 ($662,125) ($925,883) ($1,460,149) Full service restaurants -17.8 ($370,016) ($415,775) ($833,690) Real estate -9.2 ($45,628) ($697,537) ($1,200,652) Wholesale trade -9.1 ($647,001) ($1,291,702) ($1,982,492) Marketing research and all other miscellaneous professional, -8.7 ($340,485) ($322,705) ($521,554) scientific, and technical services Maintenance and repair construction -8.7 ($470,563) ($636,058) ($1,345,361) of nonresidential structures Hospitals -8.6 ($630,591) ($700,255) ($1,345,256) Limited-service restaurants -7.3 ($144,652) ($343,254) ($617,195)
Over the last seventeen years, the decline of coal and coal-supported industries in these four counties has deprived tax offices on the federal, state, and local government of $26.7 million in lost revenue. Specifically, state and local governments have been deprived of approximately $13.8 million in lost revenue, with most of that coming from lost sales and property taxes, as well as other indirect business fees. The federal government has also lost roughly $12.9 in revenue during this period as well, with the majority coming from taxes on personal income, social insurance, and corporate profits.
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State and Local Tax Impact of Coal and Coal-Adjacent Industries, Coal-Producing Counties Tax on Employee Proprietor Description Production Households Corporations Compensation Income and Imports Dividends - - - - ($11,016) Social Insurance Tax - ($3,511) - - - - Employee Contribution Social Insurance Tax - ($7,025) - - - - Employer Contribution Sales Tax - - ($6,730,504) - - Property Tax - - ($5,431,600) - - Motor Vehicle Licensing - - ($80,736) - - Severance Tax - - - - - Other Taxes - - ($809,070) - - Miscellaneous Indirect - - ($13,054) - - Business Taxes Corporate Profits Tax - - - - ($142,717) Personal Tax: Income Tax - - - ($468,306) - Personal Tax: Non Taxes - - - ($67,523) - (Fines-Fees) Personal Tax: Motor Vehicle - - - ($16,519) - License Personal Tax: Property - - - ($11,125) - Taxes Personal Tax: Other Tax - - - ($7,232) - (Fish/Hunt) Total State and Local Tax ($10,536) $0 ($13,064,964) ($570,705) ($153,733)
Federal Tax Impact of Coal and Coal-Adjacent Industries, Coal-Producing Counties Tax on Employee Proprietor Description Production Households Corporations Compensation Income and Imports Social Insurance Tax- ($2,430,341) ($152,033) - - - Employee Contribution Social Insurance Tax- ($2,305,843) - - - - Employer Contribution Excise Taxes - - ($1,405,006) - - Custom Duty - - ($582,701) - - Miscellaneous Federal Fees - - ($91,187) - - Corporate Profits Tax - - - - ($2,736,184) Personal Tax: Income Tax - - - ($3,205,195) - Total Federal Tax ($4,736,184) ($152,033) ($2,078,894) ($3,205,195) ($2,736,184)
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For workers in Bradford, Monroe, Pike, Susquehanna, Sullivan, Wayne, and Wyoming counties, coal mining represents nothing more than an outmoded career from a distant age. Moreover, the extinction of the coal mining industry across Northeastern Pennsylvania has resulted in the elimination of other industries relying on the production of coal in these counties. For communities in this region, the Fossil Fuel Electric Power Generation industry is the most adversely affected by this economic trend. From 1990 to 2017, coal as a source of total net generation by electric power facilities has fallen from 60 to 22 percent, and is declining at a more rapid rate than any corresponding growth of alternative fuel sources.
Since 2001, both Coal Mining and Fossil Fuel Electric Power Generation industries have been effectively wiped out in seven of the 13 Northeastern Pennsylvania counties comprising the geographic scope of this report. The counties are Bradford, Monroe, Pike, Susquehanna, Sullivan, Wayne, and Wyoming. The extinction of these industries has resulted (either directly or indirectly) in the loss of approximately 1,159 jobs, $60.7 million in labor income, and $381.2 million in economic output since 2001.
Of these 1,159 positions lost, approximately 304 came directly from the aforementioned industries (Coal Mining and Fossil Fuel Electric Power Generation), which resulted in the loss of both $33.7 million in labor income and $290.1 million in economic output over the last 17 years. The effect of the coal economy’s elimination in these counties has also disrupted economic conditions for supply chain vendors, resulting in the loss of another 550 jobs, $18.9 million in lost labor income, and $65.4 million in economic output for those vendors. Moreover, the resulting decrease in consumption of community goods and services from workers in these industries has generated additional losses of nearly 305 positions, along with $8.1 million in lost labor income and $25.7 million in economic output. Finally, as observed in the employment impact graphic below, the elimination of coal and coal-adjacent industries across Northeastern Pennsylvania has generated a ripple effect across a wide variety of other industries and occupations, ranging from fossil fuel extraction and commercial maintenance positions to those in the medical, legal, and service industries – impacting hospitals, legal services, full-service restaurants, and real estate.
Economic Losses from Vanished Industries, Northeastern Pennsylvania: 2001-2018 Impact Type Employment Labor Income Value Added Output Direct Effect -304.0 ($33,746,542) ($119,980,418) ($290,083,469) Indirect Effect -550.2 ($18,916,575) ($38,334,732) ($65,402,974) Induced Effect -304.7 ($8,118,110) ($14,503,660) ($25,724,779) Total Effect -1,158.9 ($60,781,227) ($172,818,810) ($381,211,222)
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Employment Impact from Vanished Industries (Top 10 Industries), Northeastern Pennsylvania: 2001-2018 Industry Sector Employment Labor Income Value Added Output Electric power generation - fossil fuels -297.0 ($33,430,086) ($118,307,882) ($287,891,967) Extraction of natural gas and crude -148.7 ($1,871,140) ($10,915,086) ($24,659,615) petroleum Marketing research and all other miscellaneous professional, scientific, -75.0 ($1,377,219) ($1,250,404) ($2,504,876) and technical services Maintenance and repair construction of -45.4 ($2,000,207) ($2,515,663) ($4,813,649) nonresidential structures Full-service restaurants -41.0 ($627,853) ($715,984) ($1,400,921) Scenic and sightseeing transportation -28.5 ($1,964,183) ($2,294,166) ($4,729,955) and support activities for transportation Real estate -26.2 ($232,964) ($1,357,843) ($2,527,987) Employment services -22.5 ($539,799) ($747,943) ($1,202,007) Extraction of natural gas liquids -19.2 ($491,439) ($6,786,421) ($8,411,679) Hospitals -18.3 ($972,249) ($1,084,893) ($2,006,619) Legal services -14.2 ($305,353) ($628,040) ($1,147,858) Coal mining -7.0 ($316,546) ($1,672,536) ($2,191,502)
The extinction of the coal mining and coal-reliant industries in Northeastern Pennsylvania has not only spawned hundreds of job losses and lost economic output, but also has deprived state, local, and federal governments of approximately $57.2 million of lost revenue collected from a wide range of revenue streams since 2001, including taxes on income, corporations, property, and sales. On the state and local government levels, tax offices have lost a total of $39.4 million in revenue, including $37.3 million from indirect business taxes, $1.3 million in personal income taxes and fees, $735,000 in corporate taxes and dividends, and nearly $30,000 in social insurance taxes. For federal government tax offices, the elimination of these industries have spawned another $17.8 million in losses — $6.8 million in social insurance taxes, $4.4 million in personal income taxes and fees, $3.1 million in indirect business taxes, $3 million in corporate taxes and dividends, and approximately $452,000 in proprietor income.
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State and Local Tax Impact of Vanishing Industries, Northeastern Pennsylvania: 2001-2018 Tax on Employee Proprietor Description Production and Households Corporations Compensation Income Imports Dividends - - - - ($64,097) Social Insurance Tax- Employee ($9,960) - - - - Contribution Social Insurance Tax- Employer ($19,927) - - - - Contribution Sales Tax - - ($15,249,798) - - Property Tax - - ($19,965,301) - - Motor Vehicle Licensing - - ($237,495) - - Severance Tax - - - - - Other Taxes - - ($1,826,447) - - Miscellaneous Indirect Business - - ($63,835) - - Taxes Corporate Profits Tax - - - - ($670,707) Personal Tax: Income Tax - - - ($1,068,283) - Personal Tax: Non Taxes (Fines- - - - ($123,517) - Fees) Personal Tax: Motor Vehicle - - - ($45,653) - License Personal Tax: Property Taxes - - - ($42,435) - Personal Tax: Other Tax - - - ($18,521) - (Fish/Hunt) Total State and Local Tax ($29,887) $0 ($37,342,876) ($1,298,409) ($734,804)
Federal Tax Impact of Vanishing Industries, Northeastern Pennsylvania: 2001-2018 Tax on Employee Proprietor Description Production Households Corporations Compensation Income and Imports Social Insurance Tax- Employee ($3,510,243) ($451,856) - - - Contribution Social Insurance Tax- Employer ($3,330,042) - - - - Contribution Excise Taxes - - ($2,126,139) - - Custom Duty - - ($881,866) - - Miscellaneous Federal Fees - - ($138,011) - - Corporate Profits Tax - - - - ($3,038,567) Personal Tax: Income Tax - - - ($4,357,509) - Total Federal Tax ($6,840,285) ($451,856) ($3,146,016) ($4,357,509) ($3,038,567)
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In two counties, however, the Fossil Fuel Electric Power Generation industry still survives, either because it has been partially insulated from the effects of the coal economy’s contraction, or because fossil fuel electric power generation facilities have started to utilize cheaper and cleaner sources of energy to sustain production of electricity more affordably. Lackawanna County’s Fossil Fuel Electric Power Generation industry was revived in 2015 due to the creation of a natural gas-burning electric power plant in Jessup, and now employs 36 workers in the area. This industry also survives in Montour County, which is home to a decades-old coal-fired electric power plant in Washingtonville, and employs 59 workers as of 2018. However, recent interest in converting the Washingtonville plant’s coal-firing facilities into a natural-gas co-firing plant portend the inevitable decline in coal demand in Northeastern Pennsylvania. As of 2018, the last remnants of this industry in both Lackawanna and Montour counties directly employ 95 workers, and support another 81 jobs in a wide variety of industries, from depository credit intermediation to full-service restaurants and wholesale trade. In sum, this industry still supports $27.7 million in labor income and $156 million in economic output in both counties, including directly employed workers, supply chain vendors, and other firms across the region. Finally, the Fossil Fuel Electric Power Generation industry still supplies approximately $22.6 million in tax revenue for state, local, and federal governments.
Reliance on Coal-Industry Ecosystem There are approximately 36,187 full-time and part-time jobs in the coal industry. Pennsylvania has created approximately $4.1 billion in economic output - $2.1 billion of which directly comes from the coal industry. Indirect business taxes, of approximately $466 million, account for about 11 percent of the total value added to the Pennsylvania economy by the industry.
Coal Industry Direct Indirect Induced Total Employment Impact 13,886 10,689 11,612 36,187 Total Value Added Impact $2,159,343,426 $1,123,353,982 $884,976,143 $4,167,673,552 Labor Income $1,039,054,218 $685,823,395 $501,472,099 $2,226,349,711 Other Property Income $811,142,165 $365,246,707 $299,232,813 $1,475,621,685 Indirect Business Taxes $309,147,043 $72,283,880 $84,271,232 $465,702,156
In January 2018, West Virginia University prepared a report on county-level coal industry ecosystem supply chain analysis for the Appalachian Regional Commission. Researchers developed a CIE County Typology, which shows measured coal industry ecosystem dependence, impact, and risk.10
A majority of the 13-county region was found to be class-3, of eight possible types. These counties show high dependence on the industry, low impact status (this refers to the negative economic impact and distress via employment loss associated with the coal industry), and high risk of experiencing further economic hardship as a result of the failing county CIE. The report highlighted Bradford, Columbia, Luzerne, Schuylkill, Sullivan, Susquehanna, Wayne, and Wyoming Counties.
10 Jackson, Jarosi, and the Regional Research Institute. 2018. An Economic Analysis of the Appalachia Coal Industry Ecosystem: County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis. January. Page | 18
Two counties in the region – Monroe and Montour – are labeled as class six counties. These counties demonstrate low dependence on the coal industry, high impact, and low assessed risk. Carbon County is characterized as a class-seven county with high risk of further hardship but overall low dependence and impact. Lackawanna and Pike Counties rank as the least depressed coal counties with class eight ranking. The report labels these counties as not strongly tied to CIE and “have been and are expected to continue to be the least affected by the coal industry fortunes.”11
Community Impacts of Blight Beyond the modeled economic impacts, it is likely that the decline of coal mining and related industries has had a negative effect on community stability. Though these phenomena are complex and causal links are difficult to establish, the data that follows indicates correlation between past industry activity and factors associated with neighborhood-scale blight and communitywide disinvestment.
It is hypothesized that residential blight, as measured by long-term vacancy of residences, is an indicator of community instability. The map below shows the percentage of all residential addresses that were classified as vacant for 36 months or longer in data tabulated by the U.S. Postal Service. For the 13- county study region, census tracts shown on the map are colored by quintile, with darker colors indicating higher rates of long-term residential vacancy.
11 p. 33, Ibid. Page | 19
The map below shows the same data with an added overlay of Pennsylvania’s anthracite coal fields. Tracts with higher long-term residential vacancy appear to correspond closely with the location of the coal fields.
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Statistical analysis further demonstrates this correlation. Of the 333 census tracts in the 13-county region, 176 have boundaries bordering the anthracite fields, while 157 do not. In aggregate, the 36- month vacancy rate for the anthracite-adjacent tracts was 1.9 percent, compared with 0.33 percent for non-adjacent tracts.
Summary of Tract Analysis: 36 Month Residential Vacancy Anthracite - Non- By Tract, N=333 Adjacent Anthracite Tracts Tracts Total Residential Addresses 292,681 325,471 Total Vacant 36 months or more 5,676 1,073 Aggregate 36 month vacancy rate 1.9% 0.33% Average # of 36 month vacancies 32 7
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The average 36-month vacancy rate for the 176 anthracite-adjacent tracts was 2.1 percent, compared with 0.32 percent for the remaining 157 tracts. Using Welch’s t, this difference was determined to be extremely statistically significant with p < 0.0001.
The 13-county anthracite coal region has an aging housing stock as a result of coal mining; an average of 28.8 percent of housing was built before 1939. Schuylkill County has the highest percentage of aging housing, at 48.1 percent. Pike County has the smallest, at 7.3 percent. The four counties which contain most of the anthracite seams (Lackawanna, Luzerne, Schuylkill, and Carbon) are also the counties with the higher percentages of homes built before 1939. Pennsylvania’s lead in the coal boom lasted until 1927, so a connection between these two phenomena is plausible.
Percent of all homes built before 1939 County Percent Schuylkill 48.1 Lackawanna 39.5 Luzerne 35.8 Bradford 33.4 Columbia 33.0 Carbon 32.9 Susquehanna 29.9 Sullivan 28.6 Wyoming 28.5 Montour 27.9 Wayne 19.8 Monroe 10.0 Pike 7.3
Lackawanna, Luzerne, and Schuylkill Counties have all established land banks within the last four years.12 These organizations attempt to find new owners and uses for the vacant properties.
12 PA Blight Library. 2017. Interactive Pennsylvania Land Bank Map. Available at:
Railroad Industry Impact According to the Association of American Railroads May 2018 report, the volume of coal transported by rail has decreased in recent years. This follows the decreased production and use of coal in U.S. electric power generation. In 2008, railroads transported 7.71 million carloads of coal. By 2017, this number had decreased by 42 percent, thereby negatively affecting overall railroad revenue and employment. The overall drop in rail freight cargo coincides with the decrease in coal production after 2008.
The table below demonstrates the job change in the rail industry by county from 2013 to 2018. There were 94 jobs lost during this time and it is projected that the industry will lose another 45 jobs in the next five years. Given the average rail industry wage compared to the county wage identified below, the economic impact is significant.
Rail Industry Job Change Average Rail 5 - Year Jobs Average 2013 - 2018 Industry Wage Forecast County Wage Bradford -5 $74,771 -2 $45,169 Carbon -5 $74,771 -1 $47,355 Columbia 1 $74,771 0 $39,362 Lackawanna -18 $74,771 -6 $42,004 Luzerne 5 $74,771 -5 $42,702 Monroe -23 $74,771 -11 $42,028 Montour 2 $74,771 0 $66,612 Pike -7 $74,771 -6 $34,504 Schuylkill 6 $74,771 -8 $41,472 Sullivan 0 0 Susquehanna -19 $74,771 -4 $40,528 Wayne -12 $74,771 -1 $38,479 Wyoming -5 $74,771 -1 $47,355
Job Loss -94 -45 Job Gain 14 0 Net Job Loss -80 -45 Page | 23
The 94 jobs lost in the region affect 123 jobs in other sectors and result in over $41.3 million in annual economic loss to the counties in the study region. In addition, nearly $4.2 million in federal taxes and another $409,000 to state and local government is lost annually.
Impact Summary Labor Total Value Impact Type Employment Income Added Output Direct Effect -94.0 -15,915,062 -14,470,385 -25,601,701 Indirect Effect -31.9 -1,471,136 -2,509,169 -4,754,557 Induced Effect -91.0 -3,598,211 -6,146,566 -10,972,203 Total Effect -216.9 -20,984,409 -23,126,120 -41,328,462
The ARC study, An Economic Analysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem by West Virginia University and the University of Tennessee devoted an entire module to the implications of decreased coal production on transportation – specifically rail. The study indicates that just between 2015 and 2016, the reduction in coal rail transportation was responsible for the loss of 2,000 jobs and $150 million in income in Appalachia.
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Health Impacts and Loss of Human Capital Mining has always been recognized as a dangerous profession. From 1870 to the time the Federal Mine Safety and Health Act was passed in 1977, 31,085 people died on the job in the mining industry. This is compared to 35 deaths from 1978 to 2017.13 The Act was amended in 2006, after which only two people died. More specifically, mining disasters killed 2,966 Pennsylvanian coal miners from 1870 to 1930, compared to the 960 miners who were lost from 1948 to 2008. Despite broad improvements in industry safety, there are remaining health risks associated with working in the mines. General health concerns associated with working in the mines has changed as the industry began using more machines and employing fewer laborers.
More than 76,000 miners throughout the U.S. have died since 1968 as a result of black lung disease, coal workers’ pneumoconiosis (CWP). Today, the disease sickens roughly one in 14 underground miners14 with more than 25 years’ experience and who submit to voluntary checkups. This rate is nearly double that from the disease’s lowest point between 1995 and 1999. 15 Though there may not be much underground mining within NEPA currently, this disease has affected miners since the birth of the industry. From the loss of lives to black lung to the dangerous mining work itself, being a dangerous profession, the loss of working population contributed to the lack of economic development.
The U.S. Coal Workers Health Surveillance Program produces data on black lung disease, which has long been limited to underground coal miners. There is relatively minimal data on the risk for pneumoconiosis exists for surface miners, although the illness certainly affects these individuals. Drill crew workers are at a significantly increased risk for black lung relative to other surface coal miners. “Medical examinations of surface coal miners in Pennsylvania conducted in 1984-1985 documented radiographic evidence of black lung in 4.5 percent of men with no history of dusty work other than surface coal mining. 16
From 2010 to 2011 there was documented evidence of black lung as well as the more severe, progressive massive fibrosis, in American miners (two and 1.2 percent respectively). Though Pennsylvania’s Air Quality index scores meet the quality standard in the U.S., it has levels above the limit recommended by the World Health Organization. Pennsylvania’s levels correlate with the abundance of coal-fired power plants in the state. 17
The same study also reviewed years of potential life lost (YPLL), a measure of premature mortality based on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Health Statistics multiple cause of death data field. It showed that the annual trend in YPLL is similar to the trends in CWP prevalence. It indicates a decline from the 1970s through 2000 and a subsequent increase since that period. In 2010, mortality from CWP led to an average 8.2 YPLL among descendants of CWP. 18
13 PA DEP Anthracite Coal Mining Activities 1870 to 2017- Historical Summary. 14 Data only goes back to 2011- only Columbia and Schuylkill 15 Wei-Haas, Maya. 2017. “Why Black Lung Disease is Deadlier Than Ever Before.” 15 May. Smithsonian Magazine. Available at:
Graph from Laney and Weissman 2015. "Years of potential life lost (YPLL) before the age of 65 years and mean YPLL per decedent for decedents 25 years or older with coal workers’ pneumoconiosis as the underlying cause of death— United States, 1968–2010. Based on annual underlying cause of death from multiple cause-of-death files, National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention."
The coal industry has also affected potential workers and populations of the counties in which mining was present and which hosted supply chain industries. As previously stated, death on the job contributed to lack of economic development through loss of human capital. The area has been affected by YPLL but also by potential and economic lives lost due to the about 3,000 workers who died from 1870 to 1930. These workers could have helped grow the local populations with families, and would have contributed to and invested in local economies by spending capital. The growth of the population and capital in local economies would have grown or fortified patch towns.
Environmental Impacts In addition to its negative impacts on health, the coal industry and its subsequent decline has resulted in negative impacts on the environment. When mining practices have ceased, the past and ongoing effects on the environment become more visible. Though much has improved with the current mining industry due to PA DEP laws and EPA regulations, the area still suffers from past approaches and work. The region continues to pay to remediate environmental hazards caused by coal mining; the amount of money, time, and hours put into these efforts could have been put forth to revitalize the region. The following issues result from mining practices and closed mining operations. Page | 26
Subsidence
Millions of structures throughout Pennsylvania are located over abandoned coal mines. These mines are at risk of collapsing due to lack of upkeep, rot, and age. There is a history of mine subsidence in the region, so much so that the Commonwealth offers a Mine Subsidence Insurance (MSI) program through the Department of Environmental Protection. In 1992, there were 40,000 holders in all of PA. These claims comprise 5 percent of all claims in anthracite region; the numbers are highly variable.19 The insurance program has paid over $30 million in homeowner claims since 1961.20
The program has an interactive website where residents can learn whether their properties lie atop previously mined land. Insurance is recommended if property is on top of underground mines. If property is located where coal exists and was possible mined, insurance is available if the owner would like it.
In the figure below, underground mines and coal deposits can be seen throughout the northeast region. There was coal mining in parts of Susquehanna, Wayne, Columbia, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Schuylkill, and Carbon Counties, so MSI is recommended for those residents. There are coal deposits that may have been mined in parts of Bradford, Sullivan, Wyoming, and Wayne Counties, so MSI is available to residents. Of the 13 counties, only three do not have any coal deposits or risk of mine subsidence (Montour, Monroe, and Pike Counties).
Screenshot of MSI Risk Map covering the 13 county region. The grey shaded areas are where underground mining occurred and the pink areas are where coal exists and was possibly mined. Further enlarged images show smaller areas with underground mining. The located point is The Institute’s address.
19 Ingram, David. 1994. 20 PA DEP. Mine Subsidence Insurance: Frequently Asked Questions. Department of Environmental Protection. Available at: < https://www.dep.pa.gov/Citizens/MSI/Pages/Frequently-Asked-Questions.aspx>. Page | 27
There have been many instances of mine subsidence in the region over the years. Perhaps the most infamous account of subsidence is the Knox Mine Disaster in 1959, during which the underground mine ceiling close to the bed of the Susquehanna River collapsed under the weight of the ice-heavy water and trapped miners inside, causing twelve fatalities.
Another major incidence of subsidence occurred in 1993 at the Washington West Apartments in Scranton. 21 At the time, 150 elderly persons lived there. The damage included broken gas and water lines, cracked pavement and sidewalks, and architectural damage to the seven-story apartment building.
From 2002 to 2012 there were 150 reports of subsidence in Pittston, a community in Luzerne County.22 Recent news reports on mine subsidence cover Scranton (2012, Lackawanna County)23, Peckville (2012, Lackawanna County)24, Archbald (2013, Lackawanna County)25, Cass Twp. (2014, Schuylkill County)26, Wilkes-Barre (2016, Luzerne County)27, Mahanoy Twp. (2016, Schuylkill County)28, within the Minersville Little League complex (2018, Schuylkill County)29, and outside a Pottsville elementary school (2018, Schuylkill County)30.
Fires
There were 17 mine and culm bank fires in the Anthracite region, the large majority of which of which were in Schuylkill, Luzerne, and Lackawanna Counties.31 The most prolific and notorious fire is the one still burning under Centralia, necessitating the relocation of virtually all of the borough’s population. From its start to 1983, $7 million was spent on fire control projects and emergency relocation. From 1983 to 2012 $41.6 million was spent relocating the residents.32 Residents were evacuated due to health and safety concerns presented by toxic combustion-related gases as well as accelerated surface subsidence due to the burning of remaining coal pillars. The environmental hazards presented by the
21 Wilson et al. 1994. Mine Subsidence at Washington West Apartments. April 24-29. In International Land Reclamation And Mine Drainage Conference And Third International Conference On The Abatement Of Acidic Drainage, Volume 4: Abandoned Mine Lands and Topical Issues. Available at: < https://www.osmre.gov/resources/library/proceedings/94IntlVol4.pdf>. 22 Wadell, Bill. 2013. “State to Begin Mine Subsidence Work.” 30 October. WNEP. Available at:
fire include air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, vegetation die off (possible brush fires), and unnaturally heated ground.
Pennsylvania Mine Fire Locations.
Coal fires cause high amounts of environmental damage, as well as fiscal damage incurred when controlling them and their effects. In 1988 it was reported that 33 surface fires on abandoned mine lands cost the state $11,963,000.33
Mine fires like Carbondale (2016)34 have been burning for over 20 years and have only recently been extinguished. The fire in Centralia, however, has been burning since 1962 and has enough fuel to burn for more than 100 years (according to the fact sheet from the Bureau of Abandoned Mine Reclamation).35 The cost of putting out the Centralia fire was deemed too high for the state’s AML program. A contractor was given $9.3 million to put out the Jeansville fire in Carbon County,36 and as of late fall 2018 the DEP could not confirm that the fire had been extinguished and was conducting further
33 Kim, Ann and Andrew Kociban. 1994. Cryogenic Slurry Method to Extinguish Waste Bank Fires. In the conference proceedings of International Land Reclamation and Mine Drainage Conference and Third International Conference. 34 Lange, Stacy. 2016. Mine Fire in Carbondale to Finally be Extinguished. 7 September. WNEP. Available at:
tests to verify. Extinguishing the coal refuse fire in Lackawanna County’s Fell Township cost $2.2 million (2014).37, 38
Water Pollution
Abandoned mine drainage is water that is polluted from contact with coal mining activity. One type of abandoned mine drainage is acid mine drainage. Acid mine drainage (AMD) is highly acidic water rich in heavy metals. The acid water forms from surface water and subsurface water with rocks that contain sulfur-bearing minerals forming sulfuric acid. Heavy metals can be extracted from rocks that contact the acid water.39
AMD is listed as a type of nonpoint source pollution by the Environmental Protection Agency. The AMD river pollution can corrode bridges40 and harm other aspects of the river, like wildlife. 41 It affects the Susquehanna River, which runs through Bradford, Susquehanna, Wyoming, Luzerne, Lackawanna, Columbia, and Montour Counties. The Susquehanna River Basin, the surrounding watershed area of the river, covers all or parts of Bradford, Susquehanna, Wayne, Sullivan, Wyoming, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Columbia, Montour, and Schuylkill Counties. The figure below shows a map of the Susquehanna River basin in light green. Specifically, Shamokin Creek has been impacted by local AMD from former underground mines. Also, the Knox Mine Disaster continues to negatively affect the region long after the disaster in 1959. To try to plug the hole in which the river was pouring into the mine, workers dumped large railroad cars, coal refuse, and other debris into the whirlpool. Water still infiltrates the mine, as well as all the material that clogged the hole, and resurfaces into the Susquehanna producing acid mine drainage.42
37 Ratchford, Dan. 2014. “Massive Coal Refuse Fire Finally Out.” 21 May. WNEP. Available at:
Pennsylvania's Major River Basins. From PA DEP.
Abandoned Mine Lands, Abandoned Coal Mine Land Reclamation
The Bureau of Abandoned Mine Land Reclamation (AMLR) administers the AMLR program. The program acts in accordance with requirements established by the Office of Surface Mining under the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977 (amended in 2006). Abandoned Mine Land problems include mine fires, subsidence, dangerous highwalls, open shafts and portals, mining impacted water supplies, and other hazards that arose from past coal mining practices. Some of these problems have already been mentioned.
As a result of improper closing and restoration of former mine lands, the Office of Surface Mining Reclamation and Enforcement developed an Abandoned Mine Land (AML) pilot program for FY 2016 - FY 2017. The program provided $30 million to the three Appalachian state AML programs that have the highest amount of underfunded coal-related problems classified as priority 1 and priority 2 AMLs, including Pennsylvania’s anthracite region. Congress has since authorized AML Pilot Program funding for FY 2017 and FY 2018. Each year provides $25 million from the U.S. Treasury funds.
Six of the 14 projects in Pennsylvania were located in the 13-county region. Schuylkill County received $50,000 from the pilot program and an additional $119,000 to address physical hazards for a preservation project. Luzerne County received $2 million from the program and an additional $800,000 to address physical hazards for reclamation of a 70-acre abandoned surface mine. The project is estimated to create a yearly economic benefit of $230,000. Schuylkill and Luzerne Counties received $2.5 million and an additional $9.5 million to address physical hazards to treat mine water discharge. Lackawanna County received $2 million and an additional $8 million to address physical hazards to Page | 31
extinguish a mine fire. Schuylkill County received $3.6 million to remove AML refuse piles and re-grade land. Carbon and Schuylkill Counties received $5 million and an additional $7 million to address physical hazards and reclaim 298 acres of previous mine land.
Map of AML Economic Revitalization Pilot Projects in Pennsylvania. From the PA DEP Bureau of Abandoned Mine Reclamation.
Coal waste, also known as coal refuse or culm (in specific reference to anthracite), is a hazard and an extension of AMLs – if not part of them. They are permanent fixtures on the consequently barren landscape. They are potentially hazardous and sources of AMD. ARIPPA estimates that the anthracite region has one billion cubic yards of coal refuse.43 There are some reclamation and reprocessing methods in use. The first plant to utilize the coal refuse-to-power solution is in Schuylkill County. The four million ton culm bank in Swoyersville (Luzerne County) will be removed and used to power a plant in Northampton County.44 With culm removal, however, there is worry about air pollution due to dust (Pennsylvania has a law that addresses air pollution associated with coal refuse disposal).45
43 Patel, Sonal. 2016. The Coal Refuse Dilemma: Burning Coal for Environmental Benefits. 1 July. Power Magazine. Available at: < https://www.powermag.com/coal-refuse-dilemma-burning-coal-environmental-benefits/>. 44 Golias, Paul. 2018. 4 Million Tons of Potential. 4 November. The Citizen’s Voice. Available at: < https://www.citizensvoice.com/arts-living/4- million-tons-ofpotential-1.2405734>. 45 Patel 2016. Page | 32
Research Methodology Several differing approaches and data sources were used in order to build a 360 degree view of coal industry impacts in the region. This research sought to understand county-by-county economic impacts via economic impact modeling as well as draw upon other quantitative and qualitative approaches to provide insight on community, industry, and environmental impacts beyond those measured by economic impact modeling.
Data on the anthracite industry – at both the regional and individual county-levels – were found in annual reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), PA DEP Bureau of Mining Programs, U.S. Office of Surface Mining Reclamation and Enforcement (OSMRE), and JobsEQ. Coal industry reliance was evaluated based on a 2018 West Virginia University report on county-level coal industry ecosystem supply chain analysis. Economic Modeling Methodology The economic impact of the coal mining and ancillary industries from 2001 to 2018, across northeastern Pennsylvania counties in which the industry remains, was calculated using IMPLAN. Four counties – Carbon, Columbia, Luzerne, and Schuylkill – showed comprehensive losses. The decline was not confined to the coal industry itself; it was evident in direct, indirect, and induced effects.
For the purposes of this analysis, The Institute examined four measures of economic impact: (1) total employment; (2) labor income; (3) total value added; and (4) total economic output. Impacts are also divided into three types of effects based on their location within the broader economy. For instance, direct effects refer to economic impacts from employment within the coal industry itself. Indirect effects are comprised of economic impacts on the supply chain vendors that serve the industry. Finally, induced effects result from the broader economic ripple that results from the labor income from the direct and indirect effects being spent in the community. Although this analysis only captures indirect and induced effects within the county of coal industry activity, it is likely that further economic ripple effects spread through the entire 13-county region.
To calculate the economic impact emanating from the extinction of coal mining and ancillary industries across certain counties in Northeastern Pennsylvania, The Institute used IMPLAN, an economic modeling software platform, as well as existing labor market data from Chmura Economics’ JobsEQ proprietary datasets. Regions in which coal or coal-supported industries were completely eliminated as of 2018 include the counties of Bradford, Monroe, Pike, Susquehanna, Sullivan, Wayne, and Wyoming. According to JobsEQ data extracted for each county, coal and coal-supporting industries were last found in most of these counties in the year 2001. Sullivan County was the exception; its coal economy was eliminated before any publicly available labor market data. As in other sections of this report, The Institute assessed three metrics of economic impact: (1) quantifying the lost employment, labor income, value added, and economic output stemming from any employment change; (2) identifying the top ten industries affecting by any employment change; (3) measuring the tax implications of employment changes on the local, state, and federal levels.
Coal mining and coal-adjacent industries have been entirely eliminated in seven of the 13 counties comprising Northeastern Pennsylvania, so calculating the economic impact of this elimination through IMPLAN required the use of an advanced technique – Analysis by Parts – which enables the modeling of Page | 33
impacts of industries that do not exist in a given region. A traditional input-output analysis calculates the direct effect of any change in a given industry with the assistance of multipliers, while indirect effects quantify interactions between related industries and induced effects measure the impact generated from re-spending payroll in the regional economy. In an Analysis by Parts approach, however, this threefold analysis is split in two – budgetary spending patterns and income. In regions where an industry no longer exists, a proxy industry region with comparable features provides the foundation for this analysis. By separating intermediate expenditures and compensation, an Analysis by Parts methodology made it possible to estimate both direct and indirect effects of an employment change while providing a necessary degree of customization.
Finally, for the purposes of this analysis, the coal mining industry consists of four industries: (1) Bituminous Coal and Lignite Surface Mining; (2) Bituminous Coal Underground Mining; (3) Anthracite Mining; and (4) Support Activities for Coal Mining. However, the contraction of the regional coal industry poses implications for other industries as well. In Pennsylvania, for instance, Fossil Fuel Electric Power Generation has, to some extent, its fortunes tied to the coal industry’s decline. Cited as a major coal-consuming industry by recent studies from West Virginia University, the University of Tennessee, and the University of Massachusetts-Amherst, electric power utilities in Pennsylvania generate at least 47.6 million megawatt hours from coal, or just over 22 percent of total net generation. While 22 percent may seem relatively insignificant, the rate of decline of coal as an electric power generation source in Pennsylvania is more rapid than any corresponding growth of other fuel sources. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, while hydroelectric power generation (currently responsible for two percent of total electric power generation) has increased by nearly 220 percent from October 2017 to October 2018, the use of coal (at 15 percent of total electric power generation) has declined by 10 percent during the same period of time. Moreover, the use of other prominent sources like natural gas (34 percent) and nuclear energy (39 percent) has also declined by two percent and 4.3 percent, respectively. Thus, because the economic impact of the coal industry’s collapse in Northeastern Pennsylvania has extended to workers in the Fossil Fuel Electric Power Generation, corresponding contraction or growth in this coal-adjacent industry will also be considered for the purposes of this report.
Net Electric Power Generation by Utility (Megawatt Hours)
1990 2017 Coal 106,677,155 (60.4%) 47,634,271 (22.2%) Hydroelectric Conventional 2,869,192 (1.6%) 3,123,316 (1.5%) Natural Gas 2,833,882 (1.6%) 72,503,448 (33.8%) Nuclear 57,787,051 (32.7%) 83,199,832 (38.8%) Other 842,336 (0.5%) 4,990,153 (2.3%) Petroleum 4,654,522 (2.6%) 355,418 (0.2%)
Other Biomass 300,109 (0.2%) 1,915,767 (0.9%) Wood and Wood Derived Fuels 538,313 (0.3%) 522,388 (0.2%) TOTAL 176,502,560 214,244,593
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Historical, Environmental, and Ancillary Data Historical overviews of the region and each county came from county records, local and family histories, and pre-1900 accounts to detail the discovery of coal. Health impacts of the coal industry came from various medical studies. Additionally, record searches for instances of mine subsidence, mine fires, water pollution, abandoned mine lands were pulled from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protections (PA DEP) site as well as from local news outlets like WNEP, WBRE, The Times Leader, The Citizens’ Voice, and The Times Tribune. Data and maps from the Eastern Pennsylvania Coalition for Abandoned Mine Reclamation (EPCAMR) were analyzed and added depth to coal’s environmental impact. Maps from PA DEP were also analyzed. Demographic data from the U.S. Census Bureau were pulled to add further insight into each county’s well-being.
Supplemental analysis was undertaken to determine if there is a correlation between communities most linked to coal mining industries and persistent community distress or blight. This analysis used data collected by the U.S. Postal Service and distributed by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. The dataset included census-tract level counts of postal addresses and the number vacant by type and length of vacancy. For the purposes of the analysis, the percent of residential addresses vacant for 36 months or more was used as a proxy for community blight. High rates of long-term residential vacancy represent a sign of weak market demand and serve to approximate housing blight.46
Using GIS software, the data was joined to local census tracts and mapped to show trends. The maps included in this report show each census tract’s rate of long-term residential vacancy color coded by quintile among all tracts in the study area. Furthermore, analysis was done on two subsets of tracts in the region – those that intersect the boundaries of the anthracite coal fields (anthracite-adjacent tracts) and those that do not (non-adjacent tracts), using boundaries developed by the Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources. The presence of anthracite does not necessarily serve as a perfect approximation of actual mining activity, but community-scale impacts of mining activity are assumed to correlate by proximity to potential mining areas. A Welch’s t-test was used to test for statistical significance in the difference between vacancy rates in anthracite adjacent and non- adjacent tracts.
To determine the economic impact on railroads, an IMPLAN model was built identifying the job loss during the study period and the average railroad wage as identified in the occupation data of JobsEQ (which uses U.S. Bureau Labor Statistics occupation wage data).
46 “Why is Vacancy Data Important?” Institute for Housing Studies at DePaul University. Nd. https://www.housingstudies.org/data- portal/info/vacancy-data/ Page | 35
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