CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For release: August 18, 2008 6:30 PM EDT
AMONG DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES, CLINTON IS FAVORITE FOR V.P. July 16 - August 17, 2008
Senator Hillary Clinton is by far the favorite choice for the number two spot on the Democratic ticket, according to a CBS News/New York Times poll of delegates to the Democratic convention. When asked who they would like Barack Obama to select, 28% volunteer her as their top choice for Vice Presidential nominee.
6% volunteer Delaware Senator Joe Biden, and 4% mention two other unsuccessful Democratic candidates: New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson and former North Carolina Senator John Edwards. Most of the interviews for this poll were conducted before Edwards admitted to having an affair. Another 4% volunteer Indiana Senator Evan Bayh.
DELEGATES: WHO SHOULD OBAMA CHOOSE FOR V.P.? Hillary Clinton 28% Joe Biden 6 John Edwards 4 Bill Richardson 4 Evan Bayh 4
Other people mentioned by at least 2% of delegates as possible Obama running mates include retired General Wesley Clark, Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, Virginia Senator Jim Webb, and Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius.
Support for Clinton as the first choice for the vice presidential nomination is not universal. It is mostly found among delegates who were pledged to her when selected. 61% of delegates pledged to Clinton name her as their choice for vice presidential candidate.
Obama’s pledged delegates are far less enthusiastic about the choice of Clinton as the vice presidential nominee. 8% of them choose Richardson, 7% choose Biden, and another 6% choose John Edwards. Just 3% name Clinton, and about as many suggested Sebelius, Webb, Kaine or Clark.
CBS News and The New York Times interviewed a random sample of 970 delegates to the convention, including both pledged delegates (who were committed to support a candidate when they were selected to attend the convention), and superdelegates, the party leaders and elected officials who can support any candidate they choose at any time.
Most delegates -- 61% -- think Clinton’s selection would help Obama’s chances of winning the general election in November. Nearly all of those originally pledged to Clinton say this. Far fewer of Obama’s pledged delegates see the benefit from naming her. 35% of Obama’s pledged delegates think having Clinton’s name on the ticket would help Obama win in November, 23% of them say choosing her would hurt.
DELEGATES: WOULD CHOOSING CLINTON HELP OR HURT OBAMA? Pledged to: Super- Total HRC BO delegates Help 61% 92% 35% 56% Hurt 13 2 23 11 No difference 18 5 29 20
Nearly half the superdelegates interviewed did not offer a VP pick. Clinton led among those who did – 20% named her. But 10% selected Biden. 4% named Edwards, 5% chose Bayh and 3% volunteered Richardson.
By more than five to one, superdelegates think putting Clinton on the ticket would help Obama win the election: 56% say she would help, 11% say she would hurt Obama’s chances. The rest are undecided or don’t think her candidacy would affect his chances of victory in November.
There is little difference between men and women delegates when it comes to a vice presidential choice: 27% of men and 30% of women volunteer Clinton’s name. There is also little difference by age.
In addition, about six in 10 women and a similar percentage of men say that Clinton’s name on the ticket would help Obama in the fall.
______The CBS News/New York Times Delegate Poll was conducted July 16-August 17, 2008 with a random sample of 970 Democratic delegates. The error due to sampling could be plus or minus three percentage points for results based on the entire sample. Interviews were conducted via phone; if a delegate preferred, he or she could complete the survey online. Online interviewing was conducted by CfMC, a San Francisco-based research software company. CBS News/New York Times Poll Among Democratic Delegates, Clinton is Favorite for V.P. July 16-August 17, 2008 q14 Who would you like Barack Obama to choose as his vice-presidential nominee?
Total Democratic Delegates % Hillary Clinton 28 Joe Biden 6 John Edwards 4 Bill Richardson 4 Evan Bayh 4 Jim Webb 3 Kathleen Sebelius 2 Tim Kaine 2 Wesley Clark 2 Other 9 DK/NA 36 q16 If Barack Obama chooses Hillary Clinton as his vice-presidential nominee, do you think she will help his chances of winning the general election, hurt his chances, or won’t she make much difference?
Help 61 Hurt 13 No Difference 18 DK/NA 8
Total respondents 970