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04 CFP Sabato Ch4.Indd Sabato Highlights✰✰✰ 4 ✰The 2001 Statewide Nominations✰✰ ✰Gubernatorial Twist: Democratic Unity, Republican Division Overall ☑ The political parties traded places in 2001. The GOP, generally united for the past eight years, hosted a divisive convention contest for its gubernatorial nom- ination between Attorney General Mark Earley, the eventual nominee, and Lieutenant Governor John Hager. Meanwhile, the Democrats, who had suf- fered from many crippling internecine battles during the 1990’s, joined hands to nominate their wealthy former party chair, Mark Warner, in an unopposed primary. The Republican Convention ☑ Mark Earley won about 49 percent of the elected convention delegates to 39 percent for John Hager, with 12 percent undecided or unpledged. At the actual convention, though, proportionately more Earley delegates attended, and he won at least 62 percent of the never- announced vote tally. Hager conceded and worked for Earley, but many of his fi nancial supporters did not. ☑ Delegate Jay Katzen won the nomination for lieutenant governor unopposed. Also unopposed for the attorney general slot on the ticket was former Secretary of Public Safety Jerry Kilgore. The Democratic Primary ☑ A dismal turnout of 4.1 percent of the registered voters chose the running- mates for Mark Warner in a statewide primary election on June 12, 2001. ☑ Richmond Mayor Tim Kaine won the lieutenant governor nomination with a bit less than 40 percent of the vote, defeating two delegates from Hampton Roads, Alan Diamonstein and Jerrauld Jones. ☑ Delegate Donald McEachin of the Richmond area squeaked to victory with just 33.7 percent of the votes—the smallest winning percentage for any statewide candidate in either party since the primary was founded in 1905. (Virginia law currently permits no run- off .) McEachin defeated three opponents, two 85 Western candidates who split that region’s votes, Senator John Edwards of Roanoke and Delegate Whitt Clement of Danville, and attorney Sylvia Clute, the only woman on the ballot in either party. Edwards was second with 29.5 percent, Clements third with 26.9 percent, and Clute last with 10 percent. ☑ As usual, African American voters played a large role in the Democratic pri- mary, providing between a quarter and a third of the total turnout. McEachin’s 77 percent of the black vote was the cornerstone of his nomination. The other African American candidate, Jerrauld Jones, secured only 61 percent of the black vote in the lieutenant governor’s contest. Tim Kaine’s 23 percent of the black vote enabled him to fashion a broad- based plurality. ☑ The seven candidates in the Democratic primary spent over $4 million—but both of the top spenders, Alan Diamonstein and Whitt Clement, lost. House of Delegates Nominations ☑ As has become typical, just a handful of legislative primaries (nine) were held. But for the fi rst time since the founding of the primary in 1905, all legisla- tive primaries were sponsored by the Republicans. Because of the redistricting schedule, the primaries were held late, on August 21, 2001. ☑ Just one incumbent, Delegate Phil Larrabee of Poquoson, was defeated for renomination. Fellow Republican Thomas Gear captured the GOP nod by a mere 40 votes out of 4,670 cast. Special Election for U.S. House—4th District ☑ The death of popular Congressman Norman Sisisky (D) in March 2001 caused a special election in the Tidewater 4th district to be held on June 19, 2001. The GOP nominated state Senator Randy Forbes of Chesapeake over Delegate Kirk Cox of Colonial Heights. The Democrats backed state Senator Louise Lucas of Portsmouth, an African American in a congressional district that was 39 percent black. ☑ In a hotly contested election with a sizeable 37.8 percent turnout of the regis- tered voters, Forbes defeated Lucas narrowly, with 52 percent. ☑ Together, the parties and candidates spent $7.1 million on this special election—a Virginia record for a U.S. House race. ☑ Forbes’ triumph gave Republicans seven of Virginia’s eleven U.S. House seats (eight counting Republican- Independent Virgil Goode of the Southside 5th district). 86 Virginia Votes ✰ 1999–2002 ✰✰✰ 4 ✰The 2001 Statewide Nominations✰✰ ✰Gubernatorial Twist: Democratic Unity, Republican Division Nominations for Statewide Offi ce Under Virginia state law, each party is permitted to select its preferred method of nom- ination every election year for both state and federal offi ces.1 For 2001, Republicans picked the convention method, which has been used consistently by the GOP for state offi ces with the exception of election years 1949, 1989, and 1997.2 Many party purists prefer conventions since the party activists who build and maintain the or- ganization are rewarded3 by having the right to select candidates. In this particular case, though, it is clear that the GOP chose a convention because the method was correctly thought to favor Attorney General Mark Earley for governor. Earley was the more conservative candidate and was preferred by Governor Jim Gilmore and a majority of the Republican State Central Committee (the body that determines the nominating method). The other candidate, Lieutenant Governor John Hager, was a more moderate conservative and a close ally of business; it was thought that he would have an easier time raising money and appealing to the broader electorate that a primary might attract. Meanwhile, the Democrats moved in the opposite direction, choosing a pri- mary election to select their statewide slate for the fi rst time since 1977. A divisive contest in that earlier year which helped to produce a landslide defeat by Republican John Dalton in November4 led Democrats to switch to conventions, beginning in 1981. But two convention- nominated slates in 1993 and 1997 went down in mas- sive losses in the fall,5 so it was “time for a change” on the Democratic Party side. As it happened, the Democrats had no opponent fi le against Mark Warner, a very wealthy telecommunications businessman who had lost a close race for U.S. Senate to incumbent John W. Warner in 1996.6 With Warner’s automatic nomination, the 1. Code of Virginia: § 24.2-509 2. In the 1949 primary, only lt. governor was contested; in 1989, only governor was contested; in 1997 only attorney general was contested. Other offi ces had a single candidate and thus were nominated by unopposed primary method. 3. See Larry J. Sabato and Bruce Larson, The Party’s Just Begun, 2nd edition (Longman: New York) 4. See Larry J. Sabato, Virginia Votes 1975–1978, pp. 31–46 5. One exception occurred in 1993, when the incumbent Democratic Lt. Governor, Don Beyer, won re-election against Republican challenger Michael Farris. For further details, see Larry J. Sabato, Virginia Votes, 1991–1994, pp. 49–90 6. See Larry J. Sabato, Virginia Votes 1995–1998, pp. 51–93 87 Democrats were left to choose from multi- candidate fi elds for lieutenant governor and attorney general in June. The Republican Convention Delegates to the GOP convention were chosen in mass meetings held in every city and county from February 26 to March 31, 2001. The results were mixed, with Earley doing well in Tidewater and many rural areas and Hager generally winning in Richmond and inner Northern Virginia.7 Overall, it was estimated by both camps that Earley had received about 49 percent of the slotted delegates and Hager about 39 percent, with the remaining 12 percent or so offi cially undecided. However, the delegates who had been selected had to show up in Richmond on June 2 to cast their ballots. The Earley forces were clearly better organized and their delegates apparently more determined to stand up for their candidate. Hager fought hard until the last day, refusing to drop out and run again for lieutenant governor— as he could have done—but to no avail.8 When the votes were counted at the conven- tion late on the aft ernoon of Saturday June 2, Earley won at least 62 percent of the ballots. (No fi nal tally was ever released, but a wide Earley margin was certain.) Even in many localities carried by Hager in the primary Hager delegates were not disci- plined. Earley delegates outnumbered Hager delegates even in some of these Hager won localities, thus giving Earley the majority of the ballots from those localities at the convention. It had been a diffi cult campaign for John Hager, and he was especially angry at his former ticket- mate, Governor Jim Gilmore, who—along with the gubernatorial staff —had done everything possible to push him out of the contest. Nonetheless, the race was not especially bitter, nor the disputes high profi le. Most of the GOP elders joined ranks quickly. Hager himself swallowed his disappointment and within two weeks he agreed to take a leadership role in Earley’s fall eff ort. Hager’s fi nancial backers were slow to follow, and some sat out the general election or endorsed the Democratic nominee. There was no contest for the other two slots at the GOP convention. Delegate Jay Katzen of Fauquier, a very conservative eight- year veteran of the House of Delegates, won the lieutenant governor’s berth. Katzen had unsuccessfully run against Hager four years earlier for the GOP nod, but this time his eff orts were crowned with success when his main opponent, state Senator Randy Forbes of Chesapeake, left the contest to seek the U.S. House seat of Congressman Norman Sisisky (D- 4th), when Sisisky passed away in March. And fortunately for Katzen, Hager decided not to seek 7. Examples of the Mass meeting results included: Alexandria (Hager 45.1 percent, Earley 36.6 percent); Arlington (Hager 57.7 percent, Earley 29.4 percent); Chesapeake (Hager 1.3 percent, Earley 94.6 percent); Fairfax Co.
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