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Americans Support John Edwards' Decision to Continue His CBS NEWS POLL For release: March 28, 2007 1:00 PM EDT JOHN AND ELIZABETH EDWARDS March 26-27, 2007 Americans support John Edwards' decision to continue his bid for the Democratic Presidential nomination after his wife Elizabeth was diagnosed with a recurrence of cancer. And they overwhelmingly back Elizabeth Edwards' choice to remain part of her husband’s campaign. This CBS News Poll, conducted in the two days following the couple’s Sunday appearance on 60 Minutes, shows Democratic primary voters with positive views of the Senator. However, he currently runs third among Democratic primary voters in a three-way contest with Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and Senator Barack Obama. The more closely Americans are following this story, the more supportive they are of Edwards continuing his campaign. And Democratic primary voters - both those who would back him and those who would not - are especially supportive of Edwards continuing. DID JOHN EDWARDS DO THE RIGHT THING IN CONTINUING HIS CAMPAIGN? Following Not following Dem. Primary All Closely Closely voters Yes 57% 66% 50% 67% No 24 23 26 20 Those who watched the 60 Minutes interview as well as those who did not watch say they support Edwards' decision. There is little difference in the opinions of women and men on the question. 44% of Americans say they know someone who has been diagnosed with breast cancer. A majority of them support Edwards’ decision to continue his campaign. RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT Americans believe that if John Edwards were elected President, his wife's health would not affect his ability to do the job – 52% expect that he would still be able to devote the time needed, 30% say he could not. Many are not sure what would happen. By two to one, Democratic primary voters believe he could manage it all. IF PRESIDENT, COULD EDWARDS GIVE ENOUGH TIME TO JOB? All Dem primary voters Yes 52% 63% No 30 27 Not sure 18 10 But winning the nomination could be more difficult. Although nearly half the public thinks the campaign's chances are unaffected by Mrs. Edwards’ health issues, nearly one third say it will make an Edwards nomination less likely. Democratic primary voters see things much the same way. HOW WILL JOHN EDWARDS' CHANCES FOR DEM. NOMINATION BE AFFECTED?… All Dem Primary voters More likely to get nom. 16% 14% Less likely to get nom. 28 30 No effect 46 49 And if the race for the Democratic 2008 nomination came down to a choice among only Clinton, Obama and Edwards, Edwards runs third. 36% of Democratic primary voters choose Clinton, 28% favor Obama, and just 18% pick Edwards. 5% would prefer someone other than those three, and more than one in ten would be undecided. DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE: CHOICE AMONG CLINTON, OBAMA AND EDWARDS (Among Democratic Primary Voters) Clinton 36% Obama 28 Edwards 18 Someone else 5 Undecided 13 In many other polls that predate the 60 Minutes interview, Edwards also ran third behind Clinton and Obama. Clinton draws stronger support than Edwards from self-identified Democrats, women, and liberals. Edwards runs about even with Clinton among Independents. Clinton leads Edwards among Southerners, and voters of every region, but her advantage over Edwards is strongest among Northeasterners. Democratic primary voters have positive views about John Edwards. He is widely seen as caring about people. Three in four believe he cares about people like themselves a lot or some. DOES JOHN EDWARDS CARE ABOUT PEOPLE LIKE YOU? (Among Democratic Primary Voters) A lot/some 76% Not much/none 9 In the winter of 2004, as he was running for the Democratic nomination that year, Edwards elicited much the same views from all registered voters on this question. 51% of Democratic voters say Edwards has the right kind of experience for the job, while 20% say he does not. Many are unsure. In January, Democratic primary voters overwhelmingly said Hillary Clinton had the right experience. At that time, Democratic voters were uncertain about Obama. DOES JOHN EDWARDS HAVE RIGHT EXPERIENCE TO BE PRESIDENT? (Among Democratic Primary Voters) January 2007 All Clinton Obama Yes 51% 77% 34% No 20 15 27 Unsure 29 8 39 56% of Democratic voters see Edwards as viable in a general election, and say he could win the White House if he became the nominee -- somewhat fewer than thought Hillary Clinton could win in January if she were the nominee. 28% today think Edwards could not win, as many as said that about Clinton. COULD EDWARDS WIN IN NOV. '08 IF HE WERE THE NOMINEE? (Among Democratic Primary Voters) January 2007 All Clinton Obama Yes 56% 63% 49% No 28 28 31 RATING THE CANDIDATES Overall, few Democratic primary voters have an unfavorable view of Edwards. Only 5% have an unfavorable opinion of Edwards, compared to 14% three weeks ago. But there has been no increase in favorable opinions of him. And half of Democratic voters have yet to form an opinion of him. Democratic primary voters also like the two other leading candidates for the Democratic nomination – Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama. 55% have a favorable opinion of Clinton, and 53% view Obama favorably. OPINIONS OF THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES (Among Democratic Primary Voters) 3 weeks Now ago 1/2007 Hillary Rodham Clinton Favorable 55% 59% 57% Not favorable 15 17 12 Undecided 23 20 27 Haven’t heard enough 7 4 3 Barack Obama Favorable 53% 54% 40% Not favorable 7 9 3 Undecided 19 17 16 Haven’t heard enough 21 19 40 John Edwards Favorable 44% 44% 50% Not favorable 5 14 9 Undecided 31 28 25 Haven’t heard enough 19 14 16 Opinions of Edwards among all Americans haven’t changed much. 24% of Americans hold a favorable opinion of Edwards, while 25% view him unfavorably. OPINION OF JOHN EDWARDS (Among All Americans) 3 weeks Now ago Favorable 24% 28% Not favorable 25 25 Undecided 28 30 Haven’t heard enough 22 18 ELIZABETH EDWARDS Elizabeth Edwards’ announcement that she will continue to campaign with her husband is a decision overwhelmingly supported by the American people. SHOULD ELIZABETH EDWARDS STAY INVOLVED IN CAMPAIGN… All Men Women Dem Primary voters Yes 72% 69% 76% 82% No 17 22 12 10 Americans who know someone with breast cancer or have been diagnosed with it themselves are as likely than Americans overall to back Elizabeth Edwards' decision. Views of Elizabeth Edwards are positive: 37% have a favorable view of her and almost no one has a negative view. Those following the story of her illness have an especially positive view. However, few Americans think the public is entitled to know the details of Mrs. Edwards' cancer, even though her husband is running for President. IS THE PUBLIC ENTITLED TO KNOW DETAILS OF ELIZABETH'S ILLNESS? Yes 21% No 75 Those Americans who personally know someone with breast cancer, or who have had it themselves, express this view at the same rate as all Americans. But Americans think the content of the Edwards campaign might change. Most Americans expect the campaign to now spend even more time talking about America's health care issues and national policies. Democratic primary voters see this the same way as all Americans. EXPECT EDWARDS CAMPAIGN WILL NOW TALK ABOUT U.S. HEALTH CARE POLICIES & ISSUES: More 54% Less 1 Same 37 Americans overall are still paying attention to the campaign -- today 72% are paying at least some, including 21% who are paying a lot. 80% of Democratic primary voters are following it somewhat or very closely. BREAST CANCER IN AMERICA Breast cancer has hit home, or close to home, for many Americans: 44% say they themselves or a close female relative has been diagnosed with breast cancer. Half of women say either they or a close relative has had it. Americans age 45 to 64 are the age group most likely to have had this encounter with the disease. In terms of region, those living in the South and West are more likely than those in other areas to have cited this personal connection. DO YOU HAVE A CLOSE FEMALE RELATIVE WHO HAS HAD BREAST CANCER? Yes % Total 44% Men 38% Women 50% Age 18-29 36% 30-44 44% 45-64 52% 65 and over 41% Northeast 43% Midwest 40% South 47% West 46% ______________________________________________________________________________________ This poll was conducted among a random sample of 831 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone March 26-27, 2007. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher. An oversample of registered voters who plan to vote in a Democratic primary next year was also conducted for this poll, for a total of 539 interviews among this group. The subsample of all Democratic primary voters was weighted to the proportion of these voters across three previous 2007 CBS News and CBS News/New York Times Polls. The margin of error for Democratic primary voters is plus or minus four percentage points. CBS News Poll John and Elizabeth Edwards March 26-27, 2007 q3 I'm going to name some possible 2008 presidential candidates and ask you what you think of them. If you haven't heard much about someone I name, just tell me. Is your opinion of Hillary Rodham Clinton favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Hillary Rodham Clinton yet to have an opinion? **** TOTAL RESPONDENTS **** Dem. **** Party ID **** Prim. Total Rep Dem Ind Voters Mar07a % % % % % % Favorable 33 14 63 17 55 35 Not favorable 42 75 12 48 15 43 Undecided 17 9 17 23 23 18 Haven't heard enough 8 2 8 12 7 3 Refused 0 0 0 0 0 1 q4 Is your opinion of John Edwards favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about John Edwards yet to have an opinion? Favorable 24 11 40 19 44 28 Not favorable 25 45 9 26 5 25 Undecided 28 26 32 26 31 30 Haven't heard enough 22 18 19 29 19 18 Refused 1 0 0 0 1 0 q5 Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Barack Obama yet to have an opinion? Favorable 31 14 45 29 53 39 Not favorable 17 30 10 15 7 18 Undecided 21 26 19 20 19 20 Haven't heard enough 30 29 26 35 21 23 Refused 0 0 0 0 0 0 q6 Suppose the race for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination in 2008 comes down to a choice among Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards.
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