Pakistan Market Price Bulletin – a Monthly Publication of the Vulnerability Analysis &Mapping (VAM) Unit, World Food Program, Pakistan NOVEMBER 2013 ISSUE

Food Security Analysis (VAM) Unit‐World Food Programme (WFP)‐Pakistan

Pakistan Market Price Bulletin – a monthly publication of the Vulnerability Analysis &Mapping (VAM) Unit, World Food Program, Pakistan NOVEMBER 2013 ISSUE

Highlights • The prices of staple cereals in October remained stable with only a nominal increase; while most non‐cereal food commodities registered an increase in price compared to the previous month. • Global what prices showed an upward trend in October with price increases in major international markets. • Headline CPI increased by 9.1 percent on year‐on‐year (YoY) basis in October, compared to 7.4 percent in the previous month. The CPI for food also increased by 9.8 on YoY and 1.7 percent on month‐on‐month (MoM) basis. • The prices of petroleum products remained stable during October. • The terms‐of‐trade for low income groups further worsened, making them more vulnerable to food insecurity.

Inflation Watch the prices have exhibited a sharp upward trend. Prices of wheat and

The headline inflation and Consumer Price Index (CPI) food on YoY wheat flour increased by around 22 and 23 percent respectively, while basis were recorded at 9.1 and 9.8 percent respectively in October that of Basmati and Irri‐6 rice increased by 12 percent and 8 percent 2013, while CPI general and CPI food increased by 2 and 1.7 percent respectively, compared to a year ago. respectively on MoM basis. The weighted contribution of food group in the overall inflation during the month increased to 45.2 percent in Significant variations in inter‐ provincial prices of wheat and wheat October from 45 percent in September 2013. Amongst five cities1, on YoY basis the lowest inflation was observed in Karachi at 6.7 percent flour were observed e.g. prices of both wheat and wheat flour and the highest in Islamabad at 14.3 percent. remained highest in Karachi at Rs.37/kg and 46/kg respectively, while the lowest price of wheat was recorded in Multan at Rs.35.40/kg and Prices of staple cereals showed stable trend for wheat flour in Lahore at Rs.39.70/kg. The price of irri‐6 rice was In October, the average retail prices of staple cereals exhibited recorded highest in Lahore at Rs.60.43/kg, while it was lowest in relatively stable trend on a MoM basis. Average price of wheat and Quetta at Rs.40/kg3. wheat flour in major markets2 of Pakistan were recorded at Rs.36.21 and Rs. 41.20 per kg, an increase of 0.3% and 0.8% respectively, Price trends of non‐cereal food commodities compared to previous month. No price change was observed in the In October, an increase was noticed in the retail prices of most non‐ average retail price of rice (Irri‐6 and Basmati) during the month. cereal food commodities. Commodities which registered increase in

Compared to July this year (three months ago), wheat price has gone prices included sugar (4%) Daal Moong (3%) and eggs (1%).Price of cooking oil and vegetable ghee remained unchanged during the month Figure 1: Retail Prices Trend of Cereals ‐ Oct 12‐Oct 1 3 compared to the preceding month. The only commodity that 90 registered price decrease was chicken that went down by 7 percent.

80 Compared to July, modest increase was noticed in the prices of sugar 70 (3%), Daal Masoor (Lentil) and Mash (1% each). However, there was 60 significant fluctuation in the prices of poultry products. Whereas the price of chicken decreased by 17 percent, that of eggs increased by 23 50 Figure2: General Commodity Price Trend (Oct 12‐ Oct 13) KG 40 250 per

30 PKR 200 20

10 150 0 KG/LTR

per 100

Wheat Wheat Flour Irri‐6 Basmati PKR up by 8 percent, while that of wheat flour increased by 7 percent. 50 Prices of irri‐6 and Basmati rice increased marginally by 2 and 1 percent respectively, during the same period. Compared to six months 0 ago, prices of wheat and wheat flour have soared up by 13 and 17 13 13 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 13 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ percent respectively, while prices of Irri‐6 and Basmati rice increased ‐ Jul Jan Jun Oct Oct Apr Sep Feb Dec Aug Nov Mar May by 7 and 6 percent respectively during the same period. On a YoY basis, Sugar Veg Ghee Cooking Oil Chicken Live Masoor Moong Mash

1 Lahore, Multan, Karachi Peshawar and Quetta 2 Lahore, Multan, Karachi Peshawar and Quetta 3Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics

1 Pakistan Market Price Bulletin‐November 2013 Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM) Unit‐World Food Programme (WFP)‐Pakistan percent. With the start of winter season, the demand for the poultry Prices of petroleum products remained stable usually goes up, thus pushing their prices upward. Prices, of petroleum products remained unchanged in October. The Compared to six months before, prices of some of the non‐cereal food price of super petrol and high speed diesel were recorded in October commodities increased significantly e.g. eggs by (26%) Daal Masoor, at Rs.113.24 and Rs.116.95 per litre respectively. Compared to six Moong (13%) and Mash (12%), chicken (4%) and vegetable oil (3%). Figure 4: Prices of Petroleum Products (Oct 12‐Oct 13) Similarly, on a YoY basis, prices of Daal Masoor and Moong in October 120 were found higher by 23 and 12 percent respectively. Price of chicken on the other hand has increased by 16, while that of eggs remained 115 almost unchanged during this period. 110

LTR Significant variation was observed in prices of food commodities 105 PER among the provinces. For instance the price of chicken was 28 percent 100 higher (Rs.152/kg) in Quetta than in Lahore (Rs.118/kg). Prices of dal PKR Moong and Masoor were significantly higher in Balochistan than in 95 Punjab. 90

Upward trend in global wheat prices 85 In October, estimates of global wheat supplies were lowered by 0.8 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 million tons (MT) due to decline in global output. Estimated global wheat production was also lowered by 2.6MT; mainly due to reduction Petrol High Spped Diesel in production in Russia, Kazakhstan, and Argentina. Reductions for months before, these prices however, were 10 and 8 percent higher respectively. Similarly, no change was observed in the price of

Figure 3: Global Wheat Prices (Oct‐12 Oct 13) Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) in October across the country. 450

Slight decrease in purchasing power of low income households 400 Amongst the income groups, people with income above Rs.35,000 (per 350 month per person) experienced the lowest inflation in CPI basket

300 Figure 5: Terms of Trade (Oct 12‐Oct 13)

USD/MMT 13.0

250 12.5 200 flour

150 12.0 Wheat

KGs 11.5 Australia USA Afghanistan Pakistan India Russia and Kazakhstan reflect late‐season harvest reports for spring wheat. The reduction for Argentina is based on lower expected 11.0 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ harvested area as dryness and late‐season freeze events reduce ‐ 13 13 12 13 13 12 13 Jun Oct Oct Apr Feb Dec prospects for a crop, to be harvested over the coming weeks. Aug Estimated global wheat consumption for 2013/14 was lowered by 3 during October for general, food and non‐food groups. On the other MT with projected reductions in foreign feed and food use. Feed use is hand, the lowest income group with monthly income up to Rs. 8,000 lowered for China, Russia, and the European Union, more than experienced the highest inflation in food group. Consequently the offsetting a small increase for South Korea. Food use is also lowered , Terms of Trade (ToT7) for the low income households declined slightly for India, Russia, and the EU4. on M‐o‐M basis. The average income of the casual labourers remained

the same; however, a marginal increase in the price of wheat flour The global wheat prices saw some fluctuations in October. Compared further worsened the ToT from 11.8 kg in September to 11.7 kg in to previous month, price of wheat decreased by around 2 percent in October. The ToT was still 7 percent lower, compared to six months Australia, increased by 5 percent in USA5, and by (9%) in India, while it ago while 9 percent down from its level a year ago. The highest ToT remained almost unchanged in Afghanistan6. The domestic wheat price was recorded in Quetta (13.58kgs) while the lowest in Multan (10kgs). remained higher 18% than in Australia, 15% higher than in USA and by a marginal one percent than India. On the other hand, it remained lower by around 10% compared to the price in Afghanistan.

4 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates – USDA November 2013 5 WFP Procurement FOB Prices 7Amount of wheat flour that could be purchased with a day’s wage of an unskilled 6 WFP Afghanistan Office labour

2 Pakistan Market Price Bulletin‐November 2013 Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM) Unit‐World Food Programme (WFP)‐Pakistan

Retail prices of various food commodities in major cities – October 2013

Major Commodities Markets Current Prices % Change Over Change Direction (Oct 2013) / KG PKR USD 1M 3M 6M 1Y IM 3M 6M 1Y Wheat LAHORE 36.53 0.30 ‐0.10% 10.26% 15.55% 29.34% ► ▲ ▲ ▲ MULTAN 35.40 0.30 0.78% 6.67% 22.60% 27.00% ► ▲ ▲ ▲ KARACHI 37.00 0.33 0.00% 4.59% 7.25% 19.35% ► ► ▲ ▲ PESHAWAR 35.60 0.31 0.64% 4.71% 8.77% 18.67% ► ► ▲ ▲ QUETTA 36.50 0.31 0.00% 12.31% 12.31% 17.74% ► ▲ ▲ ▲ Wheat flour kg LAHORE 39.70 0.34 0.00% 8.77% 15.07% 22.15% ► ▲ ▲ ▲ MULTAN 40.00 0.33 1.59% 10.34% 17.65% 23.08% ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ KARACHI 46.00 0.40 1.66% 5.14% 19.81% 24.32% ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ PESHAWAR 41.28 0.35 ‐0.12% 7.87% 17.60% 27.02% ► ▲ ▲ ▲ QUETTA 40.50 0.36 0.62% 1.25% 14.08% 19.12% ► ► ▲ ▲ Rice Irri‐6 LAHORE 63.07 0.57 2.15% 4.37% 4.37% 6.90% ▲ ► ► ► MULTAN 42.20 0.40 ‐1.86% ‐1.86% 2.93% 2.93% ▼ ► ► ► KARACHI 56.54 0.49 0.00% 7.10% 9.70% 9.70% ► ▲ ▲ ► PESHAWAR 48.33 0.46 0.00% ‐0.19% ‐0.66% 0.00% ► ► ► ► QUETTA 48.00 0.42 0.00% 0.00% 20.00% 20.00% ► ► ▲ ▲ Rice Basmati broken LAHORE 76.79 0.68 0.00% 6.12% 6.12% 11.63% ► ▲ ▲ ▲ MULTAN 77.50 0.73 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.33% ► ► ► ► KARACHI 76.54 0.72 0.00% 0.00% 6.99% 15.03% ► ► ▲ ▲ PESHAWAR 78.33 0.75 0.00% ‐0.80% ‐1.96% 4.44% ► ► ► ► QUETTA 90.00 0.78 0.00% 0.00% 20.00% 24.14% ► ► ▲ ▲ Sugar LAHORE 56.02 0.52 2.11% 2.11% 3.05% 3.09% ▲ ► ► ► MULTAN 54.20 0.50 2.75% 1.31% 3.73% 4.23% ▲ ► ► ► KARACHI 55.96 0.51 4.97% 4.36% 4.85% 3.57% ▲ ► ► ► PESHAWAR 56.93 0.52 4.54% 3.51% 5.58% 5.92% ▲ ► ▲ ► QUETTA 56.40 0.54 5.92% 2.55% 8.46% 4.74% ▲ ► ▲ ► Veg. Ghee (tin) LAHORE 202.00 1.91 0.00% 0.00% ‐3.81% ‐6.48% ► ► ► ► MULTAN 202.00 1.91 0.00% 0.00% ‐5.61% ‐1.70% ► ► ▼ ► KARACHI 216.00 1.91 0.00% 0.00% 0.93% 2.13% ► ► ► PESHAWAR 202.00 1.91 0.00% 0.00% ‐4.72% ‐6.48% ► ► ► ► QUETTA 218.00 1.91 0.00% 0.00% 3.81% 0.93% ► ► ► Cooking oil (tin) LAHORE 214.00 2.02 0.00% 0.00% 5.94% ‐2.73% ► ► ▲ ► MULTAN 214.00 2.02 0.00% 0.00% 5.94% 2.15% ► ► ▲ ► KARACHI 220.00 2.06 0.00% 0.00% 8.91% 2.09% ► ► ▲ ► PESHAWAR 214.00 2.02 0.00% 0.00% 5.94% ‐2.73% ► ► ▲ ► QUETTA 218.00 2.04 0.00% 0.00% 7.92% ‐0.91% ► ► ▲ ► Chicken live (farm) LAHORE 118.56 1.48 ‐5.90% ‐23.45% ‐4.03% 20.56% ▼ ▼ ► ▲ MULTAN 133.03 1.54 ‐3.17% ‐17.46% 2.06% 16.69% ▼ ▼ ► ▲ KARACHI 144.32 1.81 ‐10.36% ‐6.13% 12.95% 21.28% ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ PESHAWAR 142.80 1.72 ‐7.57% ‐19.09% 0.56% 22.05% ▼ ▼ ► ▲ QUETTA 152.00 1.77 ‐7.18% ‐16.71% 6.67% 4.83% ▼ ▼ ▲ ► Lentil‐ daal Masoor, Lahore 103.96 0.98 1.96% 0.32% 2.13% 12.49% ▲ ► ► ▲ washed Multan 112.50 1.06 0.00% 0.00% 10.61% 15.38% ► ► ▲ ▲ Karachi 113.08 1.05 0.00% 1.38% 28.38% 19.03% ► ► ▲ ▲ Peshawar 110.30 1.02 ‐0.33% ‐0.07% 12.89% 16.61% ► ► ▲ ▲ Quetta 137.00 1.18 1.48% 3.40% 12.99% 30.48% ▲ ► ▲ ▲ Daal Moong, Lahore 120.71 1.00 0.89% 1.50% 13.65% 2.67% ► ► ▲ ► washed Multan 119.33 1.13 1.13% ‐5.85% 12.31% 20.33% ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ Karachi 139.09 1.24 13.01% 5.74% 23.00% 13.72% ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ Peshawar 115.67 1.02 ‐0.57% 1.21% 15.67% 8.44% ► ► ▲ ► Quetta 127.20 1.21 1.35% ‐2.90% ‐2.90% 5.56% ▲ ► ► ► Daal Mash, Washed Lahore 142.68 1.39 ‐1.42% ‐3.15% ‐3.15% ‐5.33% ▼ ► ► ► Multan 117.50 1.11 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% ‐4.08% ► ► ► ► Karachi 123.08 1.09 0.00% 5.61% 19.40% 8.79% ► ▲ ▲ ► Peshawar 115.00 1.09 0.00% ‐0.36% 2.12% ‐5.80% ► ► ► ► Quetta 133.20 1.24 2.46% 2.46% 2.46% 4.06% ► ► ► ► 1M= One month ▲Price increase above normal price fluctuation 3M= Three months ▼Price decrease above normal price fluctuation 6M= Six months ►Normal price fluctuations 1Y= One year Price fluctuation is considered normal if the price change is 1 % during one month, 5% during three and six months and 10 percent during one year period. Monthly price bulletins and more VAM publications are available on http://vam.wfp.org.pk/ Please send you feedback and comments on [email protected]

3 Pakistan Market Price Bulletin‐November 2013