DOCSLIB.ORG

Afghanistan-Pakistan Ties and Future Stability in Afghanistan by Elizabeth Threlkeld and Grace Easterly

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Afghanistan-Pakistan Ties and Future Stability in Afghanistan by Elizabeth Threlkeld and Grace Easterly PEACEWORKS Afghanistan-Pakistan Ties and Future Stability in Afghanistan By Elizabeth Threlkeld and Grace Easterly NO. 175 | AUGUST 2021 Making Peace Possible NO. 175 | AUGUST 2021 ABOUT THE REPORT Informed by Afghan and Pakistani expert interviews, this report explores the historical dynamics and future trajectory of the Afghanistan-Pakistan relationship and its impact CONFLICT ANALYSIS & on Afghan stability. After identifying key drivers of conflict and connection between PREVENTION the two sides, it analyzes how the bilateral relationship could affect future outcomes in Afghanistan. This research was supported by the United States Institute of Peace. ABOUT THE AUTHORS Elizabeth Threlkeld is a senior fellow and deputy director of the South Asia Program at the Stimson Center. Previously, she served as a foreign service officer with the US Department of State in Islamabad and Peshawar, Pakistan, and Monterrey, Mexico. Grace Easterly is a former program coordinator and a research assistant with Stimson’s South Asia Program. Cover photo: Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, center, and Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, both wearing face masks because of the COVID-19 pandemic, inspect the honor guard before a news conference at the Presidential Palace in Kabul, Afghanistan, on November 19, 2020. (Photo by Rahmat Gul/AP) The views expressed in this report are those of the authors alone. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Institute of Peace. An online edition of this and related reports can be found on our website (www.usip.org), together with additional information on the subject. © 2021 by the United States Institute of Peace United States Institute of Peace 2301 Constitution Avenue NW Washington, DC 20037 (202) 457-1700 (202) 429-6063 (fax) [email protected] www.USIP.org Peaceworks No. 175. First published 2021. ISBN: 978-1-60127-866-1 Contents 3 Introduction 6 Thematic Analysis 15 Future Scenarios 24 Recommendations and Policy Implications 30 Conclusion Summary Three scenarios in Afghanistan are possible in the wake of the US military with- drawal: negotiated settlement, civil war, or Taliban takeover. In each, the Taliban is likely to emerge as the most influential party. How and how quickly it secures its position, as well as how much funding the United States and partner nations provide the Afghan government, will shape Afghanistan’s future. So, too, will the extent of support the Taliban receives from external sources, principally Pakistan. Afghanistan and Pakistan have a long history of tense relations defined by five recurring drivers: sovereignty concerns, security interests, geopolitical dynam- ics, cross-border ties, and connectivity and trade. Together, these dynamics will shape future prospects for stability in Afghanistan and the broader region. Given that conflict is almost certain to intensify after US and international forces withdraw, battlefield developments will take center stage. The Afghanistan- Pakistan relationship is likely to further deteriorate, and vitriol on both sides could foreclose on any remaining opportunities to reach a negotiated settlement. Bilateral ties will likewise influence security, political, and economic dynamics in the medium to long term, either after the conflict reaches a stalemate or after a new government takes shape. Under such circumstances, a positive relationship with Pakistan could go a long way in fostering stability and development. The opposite is a much likelier out- come, however, given the deeply held grievances on both sides compounded by the ongoing conflict. By acknowledging and working to address one another’s security and sover- eignty concerns patiently through dialogue, Afghanistan and Pakistan stand the best chance of building on their cross-border ties for the benefit of regional stability and the well-being of their citizens. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, right, meets with Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan at the Presidential Palace in Kabul on November 19, 2020. (Photo by Mohammad Ismail/AP) Introduction Efforts to bring an end to the Afghan war have focused Pakistan’s deep ties to the Taliban, to which it has largely on the interests of three parties—the Afghan given safe haven and support for much of the past two government, the Taliban, and the United States. All decades. Many senior Taliban remain based in Pakistan, three are directly involved in the conflict and have an where their families live, they own property and busi- immediate stake in its prosecution and ultimate res- nesses, and injured fighters receive medical care.2 olution. Ahead of the August 31, 2021, withdrawal of US and international troops, uncertainty surrounds the This reality is not lost on Afghanistan’s leaders or its question of Afghanistan’s future stability and prospects people, who have suffered tremendously at the hands for the stalled peace process. of the Taliban and who hold Pakistan responsible for enabling the ongoing violence. Many Afghans question Central to both is a fourth actor, Pakistan, which has why Pakistan maintains its ties to the group and has not played a key, if less overt, role in the conflict from its done more to pressure the Taliban to reduce violence, position on Afghanistan’s eastern border. Former US though Pakistan denies having that leverage. As Afghan President Donald Trump reportedly requested Pakistan’s President Ashraf Ghani argued in 2015 remarks in assistance in bringing the Taliban to the table in 2018, Washington, DC, “The problem, fundamentally, is not and lauded Pakistan’s role in “advancing the Afghanistan about peace with Taliban. The problem is fundamen- peace process” when intra-Afghan negotiations be- tally about peace between Pakistan and Afghanistan.”3 gan nearly two years later.1 This outreach highlights USIP.ORG 3 The resulting strain on bilateral relations, though government ultimately emerges will face a relationship severe, is not unique. Over the last seven decades, a with Pakistan driven by the same themes that have tenuous and often grudging coexistence has emerged historically defined bilateral ties. Should both sides work between Pakistan and Afghanistan, propelled by both to address these deep-seated tensions while building on internal and external developments. These include cross-border connections, the relationship could be- Pakistan’s formation during the partition of British India, come a source of stability and growth. If, however, one or which Afghanistan refused to recognize; a dispute over both sides allow these tensions to distract from positive their shared border; alignments with competing sides outreach, the result is likely to be continued or intensified during the Cold War; US- and Saudi-backed proxy mistrust and serious consequences for regional security. warfare; the emergence and Pakistan’s sponsorship of the Taliban; and the post-9/11 era, during which both Some argue that Afghanistan and the wider region countries were aligned with the United States, even would be better off were the United States and other while Pakistan maintained its ties to the group. third parties to abandon hope of working with Pakistan or of improved Afghanistan-Pakistan ties. Such voices Together, these episodes reveal enduring themes in the rightly recognize Pakistan’s destabilizing support for bilateral relationship that will impact future Afghan and a group responsible for killing tens of thousands of regional stability. They include sovereignty concerns, Afghans, a group that threatens to enforce draconian security interests, geopolitical dynamics, cross-border restrictions on human rights.4 The challenge of this ties, and connectivity and trade. As foreign troops with- prescription is that any such attempt to foster stability in draw and prospects for a peaceful settlement dim, these Afghanistan would remain vulnerable to spoiler actions themes will become all the more important to building fu- by a Pakistan intent on securing its western flank against ture stability in Afghanistan and limiting the reemergence both separatist threats and its regional rival India. Given of proxy conflict in the region. Indeed, the current war the lack of a viable way to insulate either Afghanistan or emerged from these dynamics and has further shaped the region from destabilizing interference, a more realis- the bilateral relationship over the past twenty years. tic (if not ideal) option would be to seek a middle ground that acknowledges Pakistan’s threat perceptions and Achieving near-term stability in Afghanistan and ensur- works toward mutually beneficial accommodations. ing its long-term sustainability are a chicken-and-egg challenge. Only by recognizing the tensions and ties To inform efforts toward a more secure, sustainable that have historically defined Afghanistan-Pakistan re- outcome, this report analyzes underlying sources of lations can policymakers hope to foster a durable reso- tension in the Afghanistan-Pakistan relationship and lution in Afghanistan and stability in the region. Many of identifies openings for engagement in the context of these tensions are structural and deeply held, however. three future scenarios. It is informed by nearly thirty They are unlikely to be resolved in the current environ- Pashto- and English-language interviews with political, ment of violence, hedging, and mutual distrust. Trying military, and business leaders; civil society representa- to address them without due sensitivity could, in fact, tives; and journalists and analysts from both Afghanistan further
Load more

Recommended publications
  • The Northward Course of the Anthropocene
    Eric Paglia in a Time of Environmental Crisis and Telecoupling Transformation, Temporality COURSE OF THE ANTHROPOCENE THE NORTHWARD (Continued from front fl ap) the fi elds of environmental history, crisis THE NORTHWARD COURSE management and security studies, political geography, and science and technology studies (STS). The primary areas of empirical OF THE ANTHROPOCENE analysis and theoretical investigation encompass constructivist perspectives and temporal conceptions of environmental and climate crisis; the role of science and expertise in performing politics and shaping Transformation, Temporality social discourse; the geopolitical signifi cance of telecoupling—a concept that refl ects the and Telecoupling in a Time interconnectedness of the Anthropocene and supports stakeholder claims across wide of Environmental Crisis spatial scales; and implications of the recent transformation in humankind’s long duration relationship with the natural world. Several dissertation themes were observed in practice at the international science community of Ny- Ålesund on Svalbard, where global change is made visible through a concentration of scientifi c activity. Ny-Ålesund is furthermore a place of geopolitics, where extra-regional he Arctic—warming at twice the states attempt to enhance their legitimacy as rate of the rest of the planet—is a Arctic stakeholders through the performance of source of striking imagery of amplifi ed scientifi c research undertakings, participation Tenvironmental change in our time, and has in governance institutions, and by establishing come to serve as a spatial setting for climate a physical presence in the Far North. This crisis discourse. The recent alterations in the dissertation concludes that this small and Arctic environment have also been perceived remote community represents an Anthropocene by some observers as an opportunity to expand node of global environmental change, Earth economic exploitation.
    [Show full text]
  • Pashtunistan: Pakistan's Shifting Strategy
    AFGHANISTAN PAKISTAN PASHTUN ETHNIC GROUP PASHTUNISTAN: P AKISTAN ’ S S HIFTING S TRATEGY ? Knowledge Through Understanding Cultures TRIBAL ANALYSIS CENTER May 2012 Pashtunistan: Pakistan’s Shifting Strategy? P ASHTUNISTAN : P AKISTAN ’ S S HIFTING S TRATEGY ? Knowledge Through Understanding Cultures TRIBAL ANALYSIS CENTER About Tribal Analysis Center Tribal Analysis Center, 6610-M Mooretown Road, Box 159. Williamsburg, VA, 23188 Pashtunistan: Pakistan’s Shifting Strategy? Pashtunistan: Pakistan’s Shifting Strategy? The Pashtun tribes have yearned for a “tribal homeland” in a manner much like the Kurds in Iraq, Turkey, and Iran. And as in those coun- tries, the creation of a new national entity would have a destabilizing impact on the countries from which territory would be drawn. In the case of Pashtunistan, the previous Afghan governments have used this desire for a national homeland as a political instrument against Pakistan. Here again, a border drawn by colonial authorities – the Durand Line – divided the world’s largest tribe, the Pashtuns, into two the complexity of separate nation-states, Afghanistan and Pakistan, where they compete with other ethnic groups for primacy. Afghanistan’s governments have not recog- nized the incorporation of many Pashtun areas into Pakistan, particularly Waziristan, and only Pakistan originally stood to lose territory through the creation of the new entity, Pashtunistan. This is the foundation of Pakistan’s policies toward Afghanistan and the reason Pakistan’s politicians and PASHTUNISTAN military developed a strategy intended to split the Pashtuns into opposing groups and have maintained this approach to the Pashtunistan problem for decades. Pakistan’s Pashtuns may be attempting to maneuver the whole country in an entirely new direction and in the process gain primacy within the country’s most powerful constituency, the military.
    [Show full text]
  • Curriculum Vitae Nancy J
    +Curriculum Vitae Nancy J. Jacobs Fall 2019 Department of History [email protected] Box N T: 401-863-9342 Brown University F: 401-863-1040 Providence, RI 02912 202 Sharpe House PROFESSIONAL POSITIONS Professor, Department of History, Brown University 2016–present Elected Faculty Fellow, Institute for Environment and Society, Brown University 2014–present Associate Professor, Department of History, Brown University 2003–2016 Associate Professor, Department of Africana Studies, Brown University 2003-2012 Benedict Distinguished Visiting Professor, Department of History, Carleton College Spring 2014 Director of Undergraduate Studies, Department of History, Brown University 2007–2011 Director, International Scholars of the Environment Program, Watson Institute 2008–2009 Assistant Professor, Departments of History and Africana Studies, Brown University 1996–2003 Visiting Assistant Professor, Departments of History, Carleton and St. Olaf Colleges 1995–1996 Visiting Assistant Professor, Department of History, Fort Lewis College 1994–1995 Associate Instructor, Department of History, Indiana University 1992–1993 Intern, Political Section, United States Embassy, Pretoria, South Africa 1986 EDUCATION Ph.D. in History 1995 Indiana University, Bloomington M.A. in African Studies 1987 University of California, Los Angeles B.A. in History and German 1984 Calvin College, Grand Rapids, Michigan PUBLICATIONS Books Birders of Africa: History of a Network. New Haven: Yale University Press, 2016. xvi +350 pp. (South African paperback issued by University of Cape Town Press, 2018.) 1 African History through Sources, volume 1: Colonial Contexts and Everyday Experiences, c. 1850–1946. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2014. xv + 328 pp. Environment, Power and Injustice: A South African History. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003. xii +300 pp.
    [Show full text]
  • Profiles of Underserved Areas of Quetta City of Balochistan, Pakistan
    Report of Profiles of Slums/Underserved Areas of Quetta City of Balochistan, Pakistan July 2020 Acknowledgements This study was conducted with the technical support and oversight from UNICEF Immunization team Pakistan, with financial support of Gavi- the vaccine alliance and executed by Civil Society Human and Institutional Development Programme (CHIP) under the leadership of Provincial and Federal EPI programs. The report in hand presents the results of ‘Profiling of Urban Slums/Underserved Areas’ held in 08 largest cities of Pakistan. Our sincere thanks to UNICEF for their technical support throughout the process to achieve the planned results. Our sincere thanks to UNICEF & WHO Country office colleagues, CSOs and expanded partners for their technical support and facilitation to complete this assignment. Special acknowledgement is extended to Federal EPI Programs, Provincial EPI and District Department of Health who extended their leadership and fullest cooperation for the successful execution of the survey. Specific acknowledgement is also extended to all the respondents for participating in this study and adding their valuable input to this discourse. It would not have been possible to present such in-depth, relevant and reliable information without their cooperation. Table of Contents Abbreviations .................................................................................................................................................................... c Executive Summary .........................................................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Afghanistan State Structure and Security Forces
    European Asylum Support Office Afghanistan State Structure and Security Forces Country of Origin Information Report August 2020 SUPPORT IS OUR MISSION European Asylum Support Office Afghanistan State Structure and Security Forces Country of Origin Information Report August 2020 More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://europa.eu). ISBN: 978-92-9485-650-0 doi: 10.2847/115002 BZ-02-20-565-EN-N © European Asylum Support Office (EASO) 2020 Reproduction is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged, unless otherwise stated. For third-party materials reproduced in this publication, reference is made to the copyrights statements of the respective third parties. Cover photo: © Al Jazeera English, Helmand, Afghanistan 3 November 2012, url CC BY-SA 2.0 Taliban On the Doorstep: Afghan soldiers from 215 Corps take aim at Taliban insurgents. 4 — AFGHANISTAN: STATE STRUCTURE AND SECURITY FORCES - EASO COUNTRY OF ORIGIN INFORMATION REPORT Acknowledgements This report was drafted by the European Asylum Support Office COI Sector. The following national asylum and migration department contributed by reviewing this report: The Netherlands, Office for Country Information and Language Analysis, Ministry of Justice It must be noted that the review carried out by the mentioned departments, experts or organisations contributes to the overall quality of the report, it but does not necessarily imply their formal endorsement of the final report, which is the full responsibility of EASO. AFGHANISTAN: STATE STRUCTURE AND SECURITY
    [Show full text]
  • Articles Al-Qaida and the Pakistani Harakat Movement: Reflections and Questions About the Pre-2001 Period by Don Rassler
    PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 11, Issue 6 Articles Al-Qaida and the Pakistani Harakat Movement: Reflections and Questions about the pre-2001 Period by Don Rassler Abstract There has been a modest amount of progress made over the last two decades in piecing together the developments that led to creation of al-Qaida and how the group has evolved over the last 30 years. Yet, there are still many dimensions of al-Qaida that remain understudied, and likely as a result, poorly understood. One major gap are the dynamics and relationships that have underpinned al-Qaida’s multi-decade presence in Pakistan. The lack of developed and foundational work done on the al-Qaida-Pakistan linkage is quite surprising given how long al- Qaida has been active in the country, the mix of geographic areas - from Pakistan’s tribal areas to its main cities - in which it has operated and found shelter, and the key roles Pakistani al-Qaida operatives have played in the group over the last two decades. To push the ball forward and advance understanding of this critical issue, this article examines what is known, and has been suggested, about al-Qaida’s relations with a cluster of Deobandi militant groups consisting of Harakat ul-Mujahidin, Harakat ul-Jihad Islami, Harakat ul-Ansar, and Jaish-e-Muhammad, which have been collectively described as Pakistan’s Harakat movement, prior to 9/11. It finds that each of these groups and their leaders provided key elements of support to al-Qaida in a number of direct and indirect ways.
    [Show full text]
  • War and Escalation in South Asia / John E
    THE ARTS This PDF document was made available CHILD POLICY from www.rand.org as a public service of CIVIL JUSTICE the RAND Corporation. EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit NATIONAL SECURITY research organization providing POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY objective analysis and effective SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY solutions that address the challenges SUBSTANCE ABUSE facing the public and private sectors TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY around the world. TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE Support RAND Purchase this document Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore RAND Project AIR FORCE View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. WA R AND ESCALATION IN SOUTH ASIA John E. Peters, James Dickens, Derek Eaton, C. Christine Fair, Nina Hachigian, Theodore W. Karasik, Rollie Lal, Rachel M. Swanger, Gregory F. Treverton, Charles Wolf, Jr. Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-01-C-0003.
    [Show full text]
  • Features of Identity of the Population of Afghanistan
    SHS Web of Conferences 50, 01236 (2018) https://doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/20185001236 CILDIAH-2018 Features of Identity of the Population of Afghanistan Olga Ladygina* Department of History and International Relations, Russian-Tajik Slavonic University, M.Tursunzoda str., 30, Dushanbe, 734025, Tajikistan Abstract. The issues of identity of the population of Afghanistan, which is viewed as a complex self- developing system with the dissipative structure are studied in the article. The factors influencing the development of the structure of the identity of the society of Afghanistan, including natural and geographical environment, social structure of the society, political factors, as well as the features of the historically established economic and cultural types of the population of Afghanistan, i.e. the Pashtuns and Tajiks are described. The author of the article compares the mental characteristics of the bearers of agriculture and the culture of pastoralists and nomads on the basis of description of cultivated values and behavior stereotypes. The study of the factors that influence the formation of the identity of the Afghan society made it possible to justify the argument about the prevalence of local forms of identity within the Afghan society. It is shown that the prevalence of local forms of identity results in the political instability. Besides, it constrains the process of development of national identity and articulation of national idea which may ensure the society consolidation. The relevance of such studies lies in the fact that today one of the threats of Afghanistan is the separatist sentiments coming from the ethnic political elites, which, in turn, negatively affects the entire political situation in the region and can lead to the implementation of centrifugal scenarios in the Central Asian states.
    [Show full text]
  • DOSTUM: AFGHANISTAN’S EMBATTLED WARLORD by Brian Glyn Williams
    VOLUME VI, ISSUE 8 APRIL 17, 2008 IN THIS ISSUE: DOSTUM: AFGHANISTAN’S EMBATTLED WARLORD By Brian Glyn Williams....................................................................................1 SINO-PAKISTANI DEFENSE RELATIONS AND THE WAR ON TERRORISM By Tariq Mahmud Ashraf................................................................................4 CAPABILITIES AND RESTRAINTS IN TURKEY’S COUNTER-TERRORISM POLICY By Gareth Jenkins...........................................................................................7 AL-QAEDA’S PALESTINIAN INROADS Abdul Rashid Dostum By Fadhil Ali....................................................................................................10 Terrorism Monitor is a publication of The Jamestown Foundation. Dostum: Afghanistan’s Embattled Warlord The Terrorism Monitor is designed to be read by policy- By Brian Glyn Williams makers and other specialists yet be accessible to the general While the resurgence of the Taliban is the focus of interest in the Pashtun south public. The opinions expressed within are solely those of the of Afghanistan, the year started with a different story in the north that many are authors and do not necessarily depicting as one of the greatest challenges to the Karzai government. Namely the reflect those of The Jamestown surreal confrontation between General Abdul Rashid Dostum, the larger-than- Foundation. life Uzbek jang salar (warlord)—who was once described as “one of the best equipped and armed warlords ever”—and one of his former aides [1]. In a move that many critics of the situation in Afghanistan saw as epitomizing Unauthorized reproduction or the Karzai government’s cravenness in dealing with brutal warlords, the Afghan redistribution of this or any government backed away from arresting Dostum after he beat up and kidnapped Jamestown publication is strictly a former election manager and spokesman in Kabul on February 3 (IHT, February prohibited by law.
    [Show full text]
  • Afghanistan: State and Society, Great Power Politics, and the Way Ahead Findings from an International Conference, Copenhagen, Denmark, 2007
    THE ARTS This PDF document was made available from www.rand.org as a public CHILD POLICY service of the RAND Corporation. CIVIL JUSTICE EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS NATIONAL SECURITY The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research POPULATION AND AGING organization providing objective analysis and effective PUBLIC SAFETY solutions that address the challenges facing the public SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY and private sectors around the world. SUBSTANCE ABUSE TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE Support RAND Purchase this document Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation conference proceedings series. RAND conference proceedings present a collection of papers delivered at a conference. The papers herein have been commented on by the conference attendees and both the in- troduction and collection itself have been reviewed and approved by RAND Science and Technology.
    [Show full text]
  • “TELLING the STORY” Sources of Tension in Afghanistan & Pakistan: a Regional Perspective (2011-2016)
    “TELLING THE STORY” Sources of Tension in Afghanistan & Pakistan: A Regional Perspective (2011-2016) Emma Hooper (ed.) This monograph has been produced with the financial assistance of the Norway Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Its contents are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not reflect the position of the Ministry. © 2016 CIDOB This monograph has been produced with the financial assistance of the Norway Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Its contents are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not reflect the position of the Ministry. CIDOB edicions Elisabets, 12 08001 Barcelona Tel.: 933 026 495 www.cidob.org [email protected] D.L.: B 17561 - 2016 Barcelona, September 2016 CONTENTS CONTRIBUTOR BIOGRAPHIES 5 FOREWORD 11 Tine Mørch Smith INTRODUCTION 13 Emma Hooper CHAPTER ONE: MAPPING THE SOURCES OF TENSION WITH REGIONAL DIMENSIONS 17 Sources of Tension in Afghanistan & Pakistan: A Regional Perspective .......... 19 Zahid Hussain Mapping the Sources of Tension and the Interests of Regional Powers in Afghanistan and Pakistan ............................................................................................. 35 Emma Hooper & Juan Garrigues CHAPTER TWO: KEY PHENOMENA: THE TALIBAN, REFUGEES , & THE BRAIN DRAIN, GOVERNANCE 57 THE TALIBAN Preamble: Third Party Roles and Insurgencies in South Asia ............................... 61 Moeed Yusuf The Pakistan Taliban Movement: An Appraisal ......................................................... 65 Michael Semple The Taliban Movement in Afghanistan .......................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • The Afghan Conundrum Taliban’S Takeover and the Way Forward
    COMMENTARY: FALL OF AFGHANISTAN The Afghan Conundrum Taliban’s Takeover and the Way Forward FURQAN KHAN abul Fell—the headlines of the week shocked many, for the greatest war machine in history failed to take note of the Taliban’s decisive onslaught, and yet again, another experiment of democratic engineering bit the dust Kin Kabul. Some call it “Saigon 2.0,” while others attribute the Taliban’s swift vic- tory to the lack of resistance by Ashraf Ghani’s government. To some, the situa- tion is a deliberate attempt by the United States to leave instability to China and Russia, while others call it the “biggest intelligence failure” in American history. Whatever the reasons, the Taliban has taken over Kabul, and the world must embrace and deal with an insurgent group holding power in the “Heart of Asia.” With the declaration of the establishment of the Islamic Emirate of Afghani- stan, regional countries are debating their way forward to either recognizing the Taliban- led government or not. For the United States, the situation is rather chal- lenging, as aside from the tough questions over the rationality of the “Forever War” and poorly managed withdrawal strategy by the Biden administration, Washington confronts a harder choice about the Taliban as well as how to man- age the evacuation of American citizens and allies from Kabul. The Takeover: As it Happened! Days before Kabul fell, the US intelligence assessment suggested that the city could fall within 90 days, but to the surprise of many, it look less than ten.1 The intelligence failure, collapse in the will to fight, rampant corruption in the govern- ment forces, and withdrawal of US close air support and logistics are among ma- jor reasons for the swift collapse of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) and for the fall of Afghanistan.
    [Show full text]