PEACEWORKS Afghanistan-Pakistan Ties and Future Stability in Afghanistan By Elizabeth Threlkeld and Grace Easterly NO. 175 | AUGUST 2021 Making Peace Possible NO. 175 | AUGUST 2021 ABOUT THE REPORT Informed by Afghan and Pakistani expert interviews, this report explores the historical dynamics and future trajectory of the Afghanistan-Pakistan relationship and its impact CONFLICT ANALYSIS & on Afghan stability. After identifying key drivers of conflict and connection between PREVENTION the two sides, it analyzes how the bilateral relationship could affect future outcomes in Afghanistan. This research was supported by the United States Institute of Peace. ABOUT THE AUTHORS Elizabeth Threlkeld is a senior fellow and deputy director of the South Asia Program at the Stimson Center. Previously, she served as a foreign service officer with the US Department of State in Islamabad and Peshawar, Pakistan, and Monterrey, Mexico. Grace Easterly is a former program coordinator and a research assistant with Stimson’s South Asia Program. Cover photo: Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, center, and Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, both wearing face masks because of the COVID-19 pandemic, inspect the honor guard before a news conference at the Presidential Palace in Kabul, Afghanistan, on November 19, 2020. (Photo by Rahmat Gul/AP) The views expressed in this report are those of the authors alone. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Institute of Peace. An online edition of this and related reports can be found on our website (www.usip.org), together with additional information on the subject. © 2021 by the United States Institute of Peace United States Institute of Peace 2301 Constitution Avenue NW Washington, DC 20037 (202) 457-1700 (202) 429-6063 (fax) [email protected] www.USIP.org Peaceworks No. 175. First published 2021. ISBN: 978-1-60127-866-1 Contents 3 Introduction 6 Thematic Analysis 15 Future Scenarios 24 Recommendations and Policy Implications 30 Conclusion Summary Three scenarios in Afghanistan are possible in the wake of the US military with- drawal: negotiated settlement, civil war, or Taliban takeover. In each, the Taliban is likely to emerge as the most influential party. How and how quickly it secures its position, as well as how much funding the United States and partner nations provide the Afghan government, will shape Afghanistan’s future. So, too, will the extent of support the Taliban receives from external sources, principally Pakistan. Afghanistan and Pakistan have a long history of tense relations defined by five recurring drivers: sovereignty concerns, security interests, geopolitical dynam- ics, cross-border ties, and connectivity and trade. Together, these dynamics will shape future prospects for stability in Afghanistan and the broader region. Given that conflict is almost certain to intensify after US and international forces withdraw, battlefield developments will take center stage. The Afghanistan- Pakistan relationship is likely to further deteriorate, and vitriol on both sides could foreclose on any remaining opportunities to reach a negotiated settlement. Bilateral ties will likewise influence security, political, and economic dynamics in the medium to long term, either after the conflict reaches a stalemate or after a new government takes shape. Under such circumstances, a positive relationship with Pakistan could go a long way in fostering stability and development. The opposite is a much likelier out- come, however, given the deeply held grievances on both sides compounded by the ongoing conflict. By acknowledging and working to address one another’s security and sover- eignty concerns patiently through dialogue, Afghanistan and Pakistan stand the best chance of building on their cross-border ties for the benefit of regional stability and the well-being of their citizens. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, right, meets with Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan at the Presidential Palace in Kabul on November 19, 2020. (Photo by Mohammad Ismail/AP) Introduction Efforts to bring an end to the Afghan war have focused Pakistan’s deep ties to the Taliban, to which it has largely on the interests of three parties—the Afghan given safe haven and support for much of the past two government, the Taliban, and the United States. All decades. Many senior Taliban remain based in Pakistan, three are directly involved in the conflict and have an where their families live, they own property and busi- immediate stake in its prosecution and ultimate res- nesses, and injured fighters receive medical care.2 olution. Ahead of the August 31, 2021, withdrawal of US and international troops, uncertainty surrounds the This reality is not lost on Afghanistan’s leaders or its question of Afghanistan’s future stability and prospects people, who have suffered tremendously at the hands for the stalled peace process. of the Taliban and who hold Pakistan responsible for enabling the ongoing violence. Many Afghans question Central to both is a fourth actor, Pakistan, which has why Pakistan maintains its ties to the group and has not played a key, if less overt, role in the conflict from its done more to pressure the Taliban to reduce violence, position on Afghanistan’s eastern border. Former US though Pakistan denies having that leverage. As Afghan President Donald Trump reportedly requested Pakistan’s President Ashraf Ghani argued in 2015 remarks in assistance in bringing the Taliban to the table in 2018, Washington, DC, “The problem, fundamentally, is not and lauded Pakistan’s role in “advancing the Afghanistan about peace with Taliban. The problem is fundamen- peace process” when intra-Afghan negotiations be- tally about peace between Pakistan and Afghanistan.”3 gan nearly two years later.1 This outreach highlights USIP.ORG 3 The resulting strain on bilateral relations, though government ultimately emerges will face a relationship severe, is not unique. Over the last seven decades, a with Pakistan driven by the same themes that have tenuous and often grudging coexistence has emerged historically defined bilateral ties. Should both sides work between Pakistan and Afghanistan, propelled by both to address these deep-seated tensions while building on internal and external developments. These include cross-border connections, the relationship could be- Pakistan’s formation during the partition of British India, come a source of stability and growth. If, however, one or which Afghanistan refused to recognize; a dispute over both sides allow these tensions to distract from positive their shared border; alignments with competing sides outreach, the result is likely to be continued or intensified during the Cold War; US- and Saudi-backed proxy mistrust and serious consequences for regional security. warfare; the emergence and Pakistan’s sponsorship of the Taliban; and the post-9/11 era, during which both Some argue that Afghanistan and the wider region countries were aligned with the United States, even would be better off were the United States and other while Pakistan maintained its ties to the group. third parties to abandon hope of working with Pakistan or of improved Afghanistan-Pakistan ties. Such voices Together, these episodes reveal enduring themes in the rightly recognize Pakistan’s destabilizing support for bilateral relationship that will impact future Afghan and a group responsible for killing tens of thousands of regional stability. They include sovereignty concerns, Afghans, a group that threatens to enforce draconian security interests, geopolitical dynamics, cross-border restrictions on human rights.4 The challenge of this ties, and connectivity and trade. As foreign troops with- prescription is that any such attempt to foster stability in draw and prospects for a peaceful settlement dim, these Afghanistan would remain vulnerable to spoiler actions themes will become all the more important to building fu- by a Pakistan intent on securing its western flank against ture stability in Afghanistan and limiting the reemergence both separatist threats and its regional rival India. Given of proxy conflict in the region. Indeed, the current war the lack of a viable way to insulate either Afghanistan or emerged from these dynamics and has further shaped the region from destabilizing interference, a more realis- the bilateral relationship over the past twenty years. tic (if not ideal) option would be to seek a middle ground that acknowledges Pakistan’s threat perceptions and Achieving near-term stability in Afghanistan and ensur- works toward mutually beneficial accommodations. ing its long-term sustainability are a chicken-and-egg challenge. Only by recognizing the tensions and ties To inform efforts toward a more secure, sustainable that have historically defined Afghanistan-Pakistan re- outcome, this report analyzes underlying sources of lations can policymakers hope to foster a durable reso- tension in the Afghanistan-Pakistan relationship and lution in Afghanistan and stability in the region. Many of identifies openings for engagement in the context of these tensions are structural and deeply held, however. three future scenarios. It is informed by nearly thirty They are unlikely to be resolved in the current environ- Pashto- and English-language interviews with political, ment of violence, hedging, and mutual distrust. Trying military, and business leaders; civil society representa- to address them without due sensitivity could, in fact, tives; and journalists and analysts from both Afghanistan further