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Afghanistan: State and Society, Great Power Politics, and the Way Ahead Findings from an International Conference, Copenhagen, Denmark, 2007 THE ARTS This PDF document was made available from www.rand.org as a public CHILD POLICY service of the RAND Corporation. CIVIL JUSTICE EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS NATIONAL SECURITY The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research POPULATION AND AGING organization providing objective analysis and effective PUBLIC SAFETY solutions that address the challenges facing the public SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY and private sectors around the world. 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RAND conference proceedings present a collection of papers delivered at a conference. The papers herein have been commented on by the conference attendees and both the in- troduction and collection itself have been reviewed and approved by RAND Science and Technology. Afghanistan: State and Society, Great Power Politics, and the Way Ahead Findings from an International Conference, Copenhagen, Denmark, 2007 Editors Cheryl Benard, Ole Kværnø, Peter Dahl Thruelsen, Kristen Cordell Contributors Peter Viggo Jakobsen, Michael Rubin, Mikkel Vedby Rasmussen, Ali Alfoneh, Angel Rabasa, Pavel K. Baev, Cheryl Benard, Samina Ahmed, Ali Jalali, Peter Dahl Thruelsen, Obaid Younossi, Khalid Nadiri CENTER FOR MIDDLE EAST PUBLIC POLICY International Programs at RAND This research was conducted within the Initiative for Middle Eastern Youth and the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy. The Initiative for Middle Eastern Youth is funded by donations from private individuals and sources in the State of Qatar. The RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy, part of International Programs at the RAND Corporation, aims to improve public policy by providing decisionmakers and the public with rigorous, objective research on critical policy issues affecting the Middle East. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Afghanistan : state and society, great power politics, and the way ahead : findings from an international conference, Copenhagen, Denmark, 2007 / Cheryl Benard ... [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4415-0 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Afghanistan—Politics and government—2001–—Congresses. 2. Afghanistan—Foreign relations— Congresses. 3. Nation-building—Afghanistan—Congresses. I. Benard, Cheryl, 1953– DS371.4.A3844 2008 958.104'7—dc22 2008014940 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2008 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2008 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface This volume compiles a selection of papers presented at a June 2007 conference titled “Afghan- istan: State and Society, Great Power Politics, and the Way Ahead.” The conference was held in Copenhagen and hosted by the Royal Danish Defence College, the RAND Initiative for Middle Eastern Youth, and the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy. This product is part of the RAND Corporation’s Conference Proceedings series. RAND conference proceedings present a collection of papers delivered at a conference or a summary of the conference. The material herein has been vetted by the conference attendees, and both the introduction and the post-conference material have been reviewed and approved for publica- tion by the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy. The RAND Initiative for Middle Eastern Youth is funded by donations from private indi- viduals and sources in the State of Qatar. The RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy (CMEPP), part of International Programs at RAND, aims to improve public policy by pro- viding decisionmakers and the public with rigorous, objective research on critical policy issues affecting the Middle East. For more information on the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy, contact the Director, David Aaron. He can be reached by email at [email protected]; by phone at 310-393-0411, extension 7782; or by mail at RAND, 1776 Main Street, Santa Monica, Cali- fornia 90407-2138. For more information on the Initiative for Middle Eastern Youth, contact the Direc- tor, Cheryl Benard. She can be reached via email at [email protected]; by phone at 703-413-110, extension 5379; or by mail at RAND, 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, Vir- ginia 22202-5050. iii Contents Preface ........................................................................................................... iii Figures and Tables ............................................................................................. ix Acknowledgments ............................................................................................. xi Abbreviations ..................................................................................................xiii CHAPTER 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1 Peter Dahl Thruelsen and Kristen Cordell CHAPTER TWO U.S. Interests and Stakes in Afghanistan: In for the Long Haul or Gone Tomorrow? ............ 3 Peter Viggo Jakobsen Interests and the Use of Force .................................................................................. 3 Short- Versus Long-Term Commitments ...................................................................... 4 Perceived U.S. Interests in Afghanistan After 9/11 .......................................................... 5 U.S. Interests Versus Commitments to Date ................................................................. 5 Is the U.S. Commitment Sustainable? ......................................................................... 6 Is the U.S. Commitment Enough? ............................................................................ 7 Conclusion ........................................................................................................ 9 CHAPTER 3 Understanding Iranian Strategy in Afghanistan ........................................................11 Michael Rubin Historical Background .........................................................................................11 Iranian Strategy .................................................................................................13 Pragmatism in Practice: Outreach to the Taliban ...........................................................14 Conclusion .......................................................................................................16 CHAPTER 4 Afghanistan and the Boomerang Effect ...................................................................17 Mikkel Vedby Rasmussen The Identification of Risk ......................................................................................18 Risk Cultures ....................................................................................................19 Risk Compensation ............................................................................................ 20 v vi Afghanistan: State and Society, Great Power Politics, and the Way Ahead CHAPTER 5 Hokumat Versus Yaghistan: The Historical Challenge of State/Tribe Conflict to State Building in Afghanistan ..................................................................... 23 Ali Alfoneh CHAPTER 6 The Tribal Structure of Waziristan: Implications for Counterterrorism Policy in Afghanistan and Pakistan ...........................................................................29 Angel Rabasa A History of Resistance to Central Authority .............................................................. 30 Legal and Administrative Regime............................................................................ 30 Power Structure .................................................................................................31 Pashtunwali: The Pashtun Code of Conduct ...............................................................32 Attitudes Toward al Qaeda, the Taliban, and
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