F A S T Update Kosovo Semi-annual Risk Assessment May 2006 to October 2006 T S A F © swisspeace FAST Update Kosovo | May 2006 to October 2006 | Page 2 Contents Country Stability and Conflictive Events (relative) 3 Conflictive and Cooperative Domestic Events (relative) 5 Conflictive and Cooperative International Events (relative) 7 Appendix: Description of indicators used 9 The FAST International Early Warning Program 10 FAST Update Subscription: www.swisspeace.org/fast/subscription_form.asp Contact FAST International: Country Expert: Phone: +41 31 330 12 02 Dr. Florian Bieber Fax: +41 31 330 12 13 mailto:
[email protected] www.swisspeace.org/fast © swisspeace FAST Update Kosovo | May 2006 to October 2006 | Page 3 Country Stability and Conflictive Events (relative) Average number of reported events per month: 70 Indicator description: see Appendix Risk Assessment: • The stability of Kosovo and key events in the region remain a function of the ongoing status discussions. Both developments over the past six months, as well as the stability of Kosovo in the foreseeable future are primarily dictated by the nature and possible outcome of the status negotiations. While the talks themselves have failed to yield any tangible results to date and remain largely deadlocked, the Country Stability, as well as Conflictive Events, have been greatly fluctuating recently, as they have over the past years. Most worrying is the sharp, if temporary, decline of Country Stability in late 2006, as well as the increase in relative Conflictive Events, indicating increased tensions in the face of an expected conclusion of the status talks in early 2007. • In Serbia, the authorities have continuously emphasized their rejection of independence for Kosovo and in extension any imposed solution which would not be based on a compromise incorporating Serbian demands.