BRAZIL: ELECTION TRACKER
NOVEMBER 2017 EMERGING MARKETS RESEARCH, LATAM MARCELO CARVALHO @MCarvalhoEcon This is an interactive menu. CONTENTS Clink on the boxes below to navigate through the file 01 02 03 04 POLLS GENERAL INFO BIOS HISTORICAL SERIES
PRESIDENT: 1ST ROUND CALENDAR • LULA • JOÃO DORIA • • • PRESIDENT:
• SENATE CHANGES • TV AND RADIO TIME • GERALDO ALCKMIN • MARINA SILVA APPROVAL RATES
• JAIR BOLSONARO • LUCIANO HUCK • POLLS METHODOLOGY • POLITICAL REFORM • CONGRESS/SENATE
• VOTERS PROFILE • JAQUES WAGNER • CIRO GOMES COMPOSITION To return to this menu, click on the • FERNANDO HADDAD • HENRIQUE MEIRELLES • ELECTIONS CHANGES menu icon; to navigate through slides, click on the arrows
• TEAM
November 13, 2017 | 2 CONTENTS
01 02 03 04 POLLS GENERAL INFO BIOS HISTORICAL SERIES
ST • LULA • JOÃO DORIA • PRESIDENT: 1 ROUND • CALENDAR • PRESIDENT:
• SENATE COMPOSITION • TV AND RADIO TIME • GERALDO ALCKMIN • MARINA SILVA APPROVAL RATES
• JAIR BOLSONARO • LUCIANO HUCK • POLLS METHODOLOGY • POLITICAL REFORM • CONGRESS/SENATE
• VOTERS PROFILE • JAQUES WAGNER • CIRO GOMES COMPOSITION
• FERNANDO HADDAD • HENRIQUE MEIRELLES • ELECTIONS CHANGES
• TEAM
November 13, 2017 | 3 01. POLLS
November 13, 2017 | 4 SPONTANEOUS VOTING INTENTION
VOTING PROSPECTS Rise of outliers in surveys is common in the early stages of the campaign . Bolsonaro (PEN) has been a highlight for his increase in spontaneous voting intentions
21 Lula (PT)
18
15
12 Bolsonaro (PEN)
9
6
3 João Doria (PSDB) Marina Silva (REDE) 0 Alckmin (PSDB) Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 CNT/MDA
Source: CNT/MDA (Sep/17), BNP Paribas
November 13, 2017 | 5 POTENTIAL ELECTORATE
VOTING PROSPECTS Lula (PT) shows a high floor (“assured” votes) but also a low ceiling (high rejection) of vote intentions Lesser-known candidates have potential room to attract potential voters Corruption scandals could weigh on disapproval ratings of traditions politicians
36 42 51 50 54 49 62
1 16 17 38 46 22 31 14 24 30 15 16 13 9 10 9 7 6 5 8 6 Lula Marina Silva Geraldo Alckmin Aécio Neves Ciro Gomes Jair Bolsonaro João Doria (PT) (REDE) (PSDB) (PSDB) (PDT) (PEN) (PSDB)
WOULD VOTE FOR SURE COULD VOTE DON'T KNOW ENOUGH WOULDN’T VOTE ANYWAY Apr/17
Source: Ibope, BNP Paribas
November 13, 2017 | 6 REJECTION LEVELS
VOTING PROSPECTS High level of rejection among all candidates . Lula (PT), has the highest rejection level among main potential candidates
Ciro Marina Lula Bolsonaro Alckmin Haddad Gomes Silva Doria (PT) (PEN) (PSDB) (PT) (PDT) (REDE) (PSDB)
25 27 26 29 31 33
Oct/17 42 Source: Datafolha
Source: Datafolha, BNP Paribas
November 13, 2017 | 7 REJECTION LEVELS
VOTING PROSPECTS Increasing rejection level over time . Potential presidential candidates have seen their rejection levels increase over time. . In part, increased rejection for Lula (PT) may be related to accusations of wrong-doing in “car-wash” investigations.
(2010) (2017) Marina Silva 17% 26%
(2006) (2017) Geraldo Alckmin 26% 31%
Lula (2002) (2017) 29% 42%
15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Source: Datafolha, BNP Paribas
November 13, 2017 | 8 SENATE PARTY COMPOSITION
2/3 OF SEATS IN
PT THE SENATE ARE UP Senate (7) TO RENEWAL IN 2018; THE OTHER 1/3 WILL CHANGE IN 2022
Source: Senate, BNP Paribas
November 13, 2017 | 9 POLLS METHODOLOGY
2014 1ST ROUND – INSTITUTE BIAS Pooling institutes use different methodologies. As a consequence, they may show different results at any given point in time. Datafolha and Ibope are two of the main pooling institutes.
Survey location: . Datafolha conducts its interviews in public places where many citizens can be found. . Ibope institute interviews people at their homes.
Survey sampling: 2014 2ND ROUND – INSTITUTE BIAS . Datafolha conducts most of its interviews in urban centers . Ibope tries to follow the latest available census data in order to track the broader voting population.
Beyond differences between the pooling institutes, it is more useful to look at common trends among them.
Source: Ibope, Datafolha, PollingData, BNP Paribas. Institute bias shows deviation of pools from average polls outcomes in the 2014 election.
November 13, 2017 | 10 VOTERS PROFILE: EDUCATION, INCOME AND AGE
4% 10>= wages 21% University degree 11% 5 - 10 wages 60 or more 16 to 24 39% 2 -5 wages 15% 45% Highschool 22% 45 to 59 AGE & 48 52 22% 43% <2 wages GENDER 33% Basic education 25 to 34 23% 35 to 44 Education level Average income 19%
Source: Datafolha (Sep/2017), BNP Paribas
November 13, 2017 | 11 VOTERS PROFILE: GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION
BRAZIL: DEMOGRAPHIC DENSITY VOTER PER REGION SHARE N C-W 8% 8% SE 43%
NE 27%
S 15% Municipality size < 50k hab 30% 50 - 200k hab 22% 200 - 500k hab 16% > 500k hab 33%
Source: Datafolha (Sep/2017), BNP Paribas CHECK OUT HERE HOW PEOPLE VOTED IN EACH STATE
November 13, 2017 | 12 VOTERS PROFILE: ISSUES THAT MATTER MOST
100% Opinion questions HOW BRAZILIANS THINK ABOUT 80% ECONOMICS, BEHAVIOUR AND 60% 40% Belief in God THE COUNTRY?* Homosexuality makes 20% Guns Prohibition should be people 40% legalisation of drug use accepted better Main problems of the country 43% 80% 74% 83% 0%
30% 100% Economic questions
80%
20% 60%
Sindicates Labour laws Government 40% do not protect should be the 10% Cause of really workers poverty is defend in main authority more than responsible for 20% lack of fact the they hurt investment Corruption Health Unemployment Violence Education opportunity worker companies and growth 32% 17% 16% 6% 6% 77% 58% 53% 76% 0% 0%
Source: Datafolha (July/2016), BNP Paribas – (*) % that agree with the propositions
November 13, 2017 | 13 02. GENERAL INFO
November 13, 2017 | 14 2018 ELECTION CALENDAR
31- Beginning of Election Campaign nd on TV and Radio* 28– Elections (2 Round) From 06/March to 06/April – Period for elective office 15- Beginning of Election Propaganda 01 – Registration of opinion surveys holders to change their 25 – Last day of electoral propaganda, for the first round at Electoral Justice, by research parties without risks of including TV and Radio (for the 2nd round) institutes, becomes mandatory losing office 15- Deadline for subscription of candidates at Electoral Justice
January March April July August October
2018
04 – Last day of electoral propaganda, From 20/July to including TV and Radio (for the 1st round) 06- Deadline for Executive office holders 05/August – Period for to leave their office choosing candidates; party conventions 07 – Elections (1st Round)
06- Deadline for party affiliation for people interested in being candidates
November 13, 2017 | 15 TV AND RADIO TIME
TV AND RADIO TIME
Electoral TV and Radio programs will begin on 31 August . For the first round, the electoral advertisement finishes on 4 October . For the second round, the electoral advertisement finishes on 25 October
2 types of programs for the election . Large 25-minute program aired three times per week, twice per day . Smaller daily insertions spread throughout the day
President & Federal Deputy Senate & State Representative (12’30’’ minutes each) (12’30’’ minutes each)
Tuesday Media 1st part 2nd part Monday Media 1st part 2nd part + + Thursday Radio 7:00 AM 12:00 PM Wednesday Radio 7:00 AM 12:00 PM + + Saturday TV 1:00 PM 8:30 PM Friday TV 1:00 PM 8:30 PM
November 13, 2017 | 16 TV AND RADIO TIME
TV AND RADIO TIME
1st round share . 10% of the time will be equally divided among the presidential candidates . 90% of the time will be divided in proportion to the candidate’s coalition size in the Lower House (sum of the six largest parties of the coalition)
2nd round share . 50% for each candidate of a 10-minute advertisement daily
TV and Radio time
12min and 30sec for each office Divided in proportion of the candidate's coalition size ↓ 1ST ROUND 10% 90% 1'15'' 11'15'' ↑ Equally divided among the presidential candidates
10min for each office Equally divided among the candidates ↓ 2ND ROUND 50% 50% 5' 5
November 13, 2017 | 17 ELECTORAL ADVERTISEMENT
TV AND RADIO TIME (minutes per day) Daily electoral TV and Radio programs will begin on 30 August . For the first round, the electoral advertisement finishes on 4 October . For the second round, the electoral advertisement finishes on 25 October
4.8 Candidate 1 2 Candidate 2 ST ND 1 15 2 Candidate 1 Candidate 3 2 10 10 Candidate 2 Candidate 4 ROUND ROUND Other 10
November 13, 2017 | 18 POLITICAL REFORM
MINIMAL PERFORMANCE FOR ADS ON TV & RADIO COALITIONS CAMPAIGN FUNDS
none private donations by individuals
Previous seat distribution depends on the are allowed (private by companies votes for party coalitions were prohibited by the Supreme Previous Previous 1.5% of total valid votes; Court in 2015)
1.0% of the votes in at least nine states; or private donations by individuals; elected at least nine congressmen Rules in 2018 in at least nine states. public funds with resources seat distribution depends on the foreseen in the budget (30% of votes for party coalitions (no politicians amendments or change from previous rules) 1.5% of total valid votes BRL1.4bn in 2018); Rules in 2018 Rules in 2018 (increasing by 0.5% in each spending ceiling for campaigns. election until 3.0% in 2030);
1.0% of the votes in at least nine states (1.5% in 2026 and 2.0% by private donations by individuals; 2030); or seat distribution depends on the public funds with resources
Rules in 2020 votes for each single party (rather elected at least nine congressmen foreseen in the budget; than votes for party coalitions). in at least nine states (increasing
Rules in 2020 Rules in 2020 spending ceiling for campaigns. 2 per year until 15 in 2030).
Source: Lower House, Senate
November 13, 2017 | 19 03. BIOS
November 13, 2017 | 20 LULA (PT)
political background 150% Potential Member of Chamber of Deputies (SP) candidate 87 - 91 80 - 94 91-94 94-95 03-06 03-11 07-11 2018 President of Workers Party President of Brazil birth . Caetés, Pernambuco . born in 1945 – age 72
academic background . Basic level
party . PT (Workers’ Party) . Centre-left party
November 13, 2017 | 21 JOÃO DORIA (PSDB)
political background 150%
Embratur’s Potential President candidate 83-86 869495-9588-03 201707 08-11- 11 2018
Municipal Secretary birth Mayor of São o f Tourism in . São Paulo, São Paulo . São Paulo Paulo born in 1957 – age 59 academic background . BA in Business Management, Journalism and Advertising at Armando Alvares Penteado Foundation
party . PSDB (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) . Centre / Centre-right party
November 13, 2017 | 22 ALCKMIN (PSDB)
political background 150%
Member of a Member of the São Secretary of Vice Governor of Potential Municipal Paulo Legislative Development of São São Paulo Chamber Assembly Paulo candidate 09-10 7383-77- 89 77-8289 -90 83-8791 -9487 -94 94-9595 -01 20182018 01-17 Mayor of Member of the Governor of state of birth Pindamonhangaba . Pindamonhangaba, São Paulo Chamber of São Paulo Deputies . born in 1952 – age 64 academic background . BA in Medicine at University of Medicine of Taubaté . Specialisation in Anaesthesiology at Medical Assistance to Public Server Institute
party . PSDB (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) . Centre / Centre-right party
November 13, 2017 | 23 MARINA SILVA (REDE)
political background 150% Potential Alderwoman of Rio Senator from Senator from Branco Acre Acre candidate 89-91 91-95 95-03 03-08 0807-11-11 2018
Study Deputy of Minister of the birth Acre Environment . Rio Branco, Acre . born in 1958 – age 59
academic background . BA in History at Federal University of Acre
party . REDE (Sustainability Network) . Centre-left party
November 13, 2017 | 24 JAIR BOLSONARO (PEN)
political background 150%
Alderman of Rio Potential de Janeiro candidate 77-80 948995--9591-03 91-1707 08-11- 11 2018
Military career Federal Deputy birth from Rio de . Campinas, São Paulo . born in 1955 – age 62 Janeiro academic background . Preparatory School of the Brazilian Army
party . Likely to leave PSC and affiliate to PEN . Right-wing party
November 13, 2017 | 25 LUCIANO HUCK (DEM)
political background 150% Potential TV-show host candidate 1999 - 2017 2018
birth . São Paulo, São Paulo . Born in 1971 – age 46
academic background . BA in Law at University of São Paulo . BA in Journalism at University of São Paulo
party . Not defined yet, but with strong possibility to be at DEM . Centre-right party
November 13, 2017 | 26 JAQUES WAGNER (PT)
political background 150% Minister of Labour State Secretary of and Employment Economic Potential of Brazil Governor of Bahia Development (BA) candidate 91-03 03-04 05-1205 -06 07-14 2015 1315-16-16 07201708-11- 11 2018 Chief-minister of Federal Deputy Chief of Staff of birth the Institutional Defense Minister . Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro of Bahia the Presidency Relations Office . born in 1951 – age 66
academic background . BA in Civil Engineering at Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (incomplete)
party . PT (Workers’ Party) . Centre-left party
November 13, 2017 | 27 CIRO GOMES (PDT)
political background 150% Member of Minister of Governor of Potential legislative National Ceará Assembly Integration candidate 83-89 89-90 91-94 94-95 03-06 07-11 2018
Member of birth Mayor of Minister of Chamber of . Pindamonhangaba, São Paulo Fortaleza Finance Deputies (Ceará) . born in 1957 – age 59
academic background . BA in Economics at Harvard Law School . BA in Law at Federal University of Ceará
party . PDT (Democratic Labour Party) . Left-wing party
November 13, 2017 | 28 FERNANDO HADDAD (PT)
political background 150% Potential Minister of Education candidate 05-12 13-16 0708-11- 11 2018
Mayor of São Paulo birth . Campinas, São Paulo . born in 1963 – age 54
academic background . BA in Law at University of São Paulo . Master in Economics at University of São Paulo . Doctorate in Philosophy at University of São Paulo
party . PT (Workers’ Party) . Centre-left party
November 13, 2017 | 29 HENRIQUE MEIRELLES (PSD)
political background 150%
President of the Potential Central Bank candidate 2002 940395--9511-03 16-1707 08-11- 11 2018
Federal Deputy Minister of birth from Goiás Finance . Anápolis, Goiás . born in 1945 – age 72
academic background . BA in Civil Engineering at the University of São Paulo . MBA in Business Administration at Federal University of Rio de Janeiro . Advanced Management Program at Harvard Business School
party . PSD (Social Democratic Party) . Centre party
November 13, 2017 | 30 04. HISTORICAL SERIES
November 13, 2017 | 31 APPROVAL AND DIAPPROVAL RATINGS
APPROVAL AND DISAPPROVAL RATING OF FEDERAL ADMINISTRATION
Disapproval rating of current president Temer’s administration is high
FHC 2 Lula Dilma Temer
83
71 69 65
56
48 47 43 36 30 31 26 25
13 14 14 10 7 7 8 7 3 Feb-99 Feb-01 Feb-03 Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15 Feb-17
November 13, 2017 | 32 CONGRESS AND SENATE CURRENT COMPOSITION
CONGRESS SENATE
Source: Congress, Senate, BNP Paribas
November 13, 2017 | 33 GEOGRAPHICAL VOTING DISTRIBUTION IN PREVIOUS ELECTIONS
2nd ROUND ELECTIONS
. Lula . Lula . Dilma . Serra . Alckmin . Serra
Source: Datafolha (Sep/2017), BNP Paribas
November 13, 2017 | 34 GEOGRAPHICAL VOTING DISTRIBUTION IN THE 2014 ELECTION
2nd ROUND ELECTIONS: 2014
Source: Datafolha (Sep/2017), BNP Paribas
November 13, 2017 | 35 LATAM ECONOMICS RESEARCH TEAM AT BNP PARIBAS
Marcelo Carvalho Gustavo Arruda Head of Emerging Markets Research, Latam Brazil (55 11) 3841-3418 (55 11) 3841-3466 [email protected] [email protected]
Florencia Vazquez Luiz Eduardo Peixoto Argentina and Chile Colombia and Mexico (54 11) 4875-4363 (55 11) 3841-3494 [email protected] [email protected]
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November 13, 2017 | 36