Brazil’s General Election 2018 - Results & Analysis Brazil’s presidential election will be decided in a runoff vote on Oct. 28 v

Jair Bolsonaro Fernando Haddad (Social Liberal Party) (Workers’ Party) 46% 29.3% Total # of ballots: Total # of ballots: 49,275,358 31,341,839 Uncertain outlook as polarisation wins the day in Brazil presidential election

Presidential election result. Populist candidate Jair Bolsonaro won the first round of Brazil’s presidential election with 46% of the valid poll, but failed to cross the 50% plus one threshold required to avoid a runoff on October 28. His opponent will be Fernando Haddad, Lula’s hand-picked successor, after the former president was barred from running due to a prison sentence on corruption charges. This is the first presidential election since 1989 where the centre-right PSDB has not been a protagonist in the election.

Second round set to be a tight race. Opinion polls show both candidates running neck-and-neck with no clear favourite. The balance of the election now shifts to the some 20% of the electorate that voted for candidates other than Bolsonaro or Haddad. The Datafolha poll published on the eve of the election showed that most of Ciro Gomes’ voters would transfer to Haddad, while Alckmin’s electorate would divide between both candidates. This should put Haddad on a par with Bolsonaro in terms of support (in line with opinion polling).

Governance becomes a key concern as party fragmentation in Congress heightens even further. Brazil already has the most fragmented legislature of any liberal democracy, yet the 2018 election has seen both houses of Congress become increasingly divided. There are now an unwieldly 30 parties represented in Congress (among a total of 35 registered parties).

New power alignment in Congress. Although the Workers’ Party (PT) returned with the largest caucus in the House, Bolsonaro’s current party (Social Liberal Party, PSL), jumped from 8 seats to over 50, which is likely to position the party as a heavyweight force in the next Congress. Furthermore, following a trend set in motion since 1998, the largest parties in Congress have become increasingly eroded in terms of membership, while smaller parties have increased in size.

Equilibrium between President and Congress unclear. For whoever wins the presidential election, building a cross-party coalition to support that president’s agenda is likely to pose several challenges. The relationship between the presidency and Congress is set to be the key dynamic to watch from 2019. Ibope opinion polling for the presidential election RESULT

46

36 33 31 32 29,3 29 28 28 26 27 23 2122 22 21 21 22 20 19 19 17 14 12 12 12 12 12,5 11 11 11 11 11 1011 11 8 9 9 89 8 8 8 8,8 6 7 6 7 7 7 4 4,8 2

21-24 JUNE 17-19 01-03 05-11 16-18 22-23 22-24 29-30 01-02 05-06 06 07 AUGUST SEPTEMBERSEPTEMBERSEPTEMBERSEPTEMBERSEPTEMBERSEPTEMBER OCTOBER OCTOBER OCTOBER OCTOBER

Datafolha opinion polling for the presidential election RESULT

46

35 36 32 28 28 28 29,3 26 24 22 22 21 22 22 19 15 16 15 16 13 13 13 13 12,5 11 12 11 11 11 10 109 109 9 9 10 9 8,8 7 7 8 7 8 8 7 5 6 6 5 5 5 56 6 4,8 4 4 4 34 1 1 06-07 JUNE 20-21 10 13-14 18-19 26-28 02 OCTOBER 03-04 05-06 06 OCTOBER 07 OCTOBER AUGUST SEPTEMBER SEPTEMBER SEPTEMBER SEPTEMBER OCTOBER OCTOBER

Bolsonaro Marina Ciro Alckmin Álvaro Haddad Amoêdo Meirelles Others Undecided Protest Share of the vote Candidate Votes Jair Bolsonaro 49,275,358 for president Fernando Haddad 31,341.839

Ciro Gomes 13,344,074

Geraldo Alckmin 5,096,277

João Amoedo 2,679,596

Cabo Daciolo 1,348,317

Henrique Meirelles 1,288,941

Marina Silva 1,069,538

Alvaro Dias 859,574

Guilherme Bouilos 617,115

Vera 55,759

Eymael 41,708

João Goulart 30,176

Protest votes 3,106,916

Spoiled ballots 7,206.162

Abstention 29,937,375 Unhappy choices: approval ratings for selected candidates

Bolsonaro

Haddad

Ciro Gomes

Alckmin

Marina Silva

Amoedo

Meirelles

Alvaro Dias

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Disapproval Support States won by Bolsonaro (green) and Haddad (red)

2010 2014 2018

PT vs PSDB PT vs PSDB PT vs PSL Datafolha opinion poll for the 2nd round (Bolsonaro v. Haddad)

45 44 44 45 41 41 42 43 43 38 3839 40 39 2829 20 17 15 13 12 10 10 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2

Bolsonaro Haddad Branco-Nulo/Protest Indecisos/Undecided

Ibope opinion poll for the 2nd round (Bolsonaro v. Haddad)

43 43 45 40 40 42 42 41 41 3637 36 37 38

22 19 15 15 16 14 12 12

5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3

Bolsonaro Haddad Indecisos/Undecided Branco-Nulo/Protest CONGRESS 2019-2023 513 Representatives

81 Senators Trend of heightened party fragmentation continues

House of Representatives Senate 45

100 40

80 35

30 60

25

40 20

20 15

10 0 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 Current 2018 5 DEM PSDB MDB PP PT PSD PR PSB PDT PRB 0 PTB SD PCdoB PSC PSL 1999 2003 2007 2011 2014 Current 2018 PPS PODE PROS PV PL MDB DEM PSDB PT PP PDT PSOL PTB PSB PR PODE PSD REDE GOVERNORS ELECTED IN THE FIRST ROUND ACRE ALAGOAS BAHIA

Gladson Cameli (PP) Renan Calheiros Filho (MDB) Rui Costa (PT) Senator for Acre Governor Governor

CEARA ESPÍRITO SANTO GOIAS

Camilo Santana (PT) Renato Casagrande (PSB) Ronaldo Caiado (DEM) Governor Former governor Senator for Goias

MARANHAO MATO GROSSO PARAIBA

Flavio Dino (PCdoB) Mauro Mendes (DEM) Joao Azevedo (PSB) Governor Former mayor of Cuiaba Former state secretary

PERNAMBUCO PARANA Paulo Camara (PSB) PIAUI Governor Wellington Dias (PT) Ratinho Jr. (PSD) Governor State Representative

TOCANTINS Mauro Carlesse (PHS) Governor +55+55(61(61) 3548) 3548-5297-5297 [email protected] [email protected] SHS Quadra 6, complexo Brasil 21, bloco E sala SHS Quadra317/318, 6, complexo Brasília, Brasil Brasil 21, bloco E sala 317/318, Brasília, Brasil