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Brazil: Disputing Narratives in Unpredictable Elections

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Brazil: Disputing Narratives in Unpredictable Elections : SPECIAL REPORT Brazil: Disputing Narratives in Unpredictable Elections São Paulo, September 2018 Barcelona • Bogota • Buenos Aires • Havana • Lima • Lisbon • Madrid • Mexico City • Miami • New York City • Panama City • Quito • Rio de Janeiro • Sao Paulo Santiago • Santo Domingo • Washington, DC BRAZIL: DISPUTING NARRATIVES IN UNPREDICTABLE ELECTIONS INTRODUCTION BRAZIL: DISPUTING NARRATIVES IN UNPREDICTABLE 1. THE LOVE/HATE ELECTIONS DICHOTOMY SURROUNDING LULAISMOPOSICIÓN AL A television host, a former minister of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court, various GOBIERNO TEMER entrepreneurs with different ideologies…. 2. OPPOSITION TO THE TEMER ADMINISTRATIONCANDIDATOS PRINCIPALES There had been much speculation regarding the “outsider” candidates of Brazil’s traditional political arena who would make the upcoming presidential election the OTHER CANDIDATES most unpredictable since 1989. However, the final list of candidates triggered a “reality ELECTORAL CALENDAR check” moment; Brazilian voters were very much familiar with all those who have a AUTHORS chance of winning. In Brazil’s presidential elections, slated for October, voters have witnessed many discussions regarding legal uncertainties surrounding the candidacy of former President Lula, currently in jail and who has since announced he will not run and endorsed Haddad; political uncertainties arising from the controversial and conservative rightist candidacy of former military officer Jair Bolsonaro; and the lack of candidacy renewals of known politicians who have vied for the presidency in the past, among other topics. Five candidates are deemed top contenders, considering poll data accrued since early 2017 and the party structures supporting them during the campaign: • Jair Bolsonaro (Social Liberal Party), former military officer, currently in his seventh term as federal deputy for Rio de Janeiro. • Marina Silva (Sustainability Network), former senator for Acre and former minister of the environment; third time running for president. • Geraldo Alckmin, four-time Sao Paulo governor, in his second candidacy for president. • Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labor Party), former governor of Ceara, former minister of finance and former minister of national integration, also a third-time presidential candidate. • The fifth and strongest contender was former President Lula (Workers’ Party), who might have won the presidency for a third term were he not in prison. Even so, Lula’s replacement, former Mayor and former Minister of Education Fernando Haddad (Lula’s previous running mate) will keep the Workers’ Party a primary force in these elections. Regarding the campaign issues and communication messages that are sure to mark the course of the elections, there are three main lines of reasoning that have less to do with party affinity than voter and party pragmatism: 1 BRAZIL: DISPUTING NARRATIVES IN UNPREDICTABLE ELECTIONS 1. THE LOVE/ former members of the so-called HATE DICHOTOMY “new middle class” that emerged SURROUNDING LULAISM upon access to better lending and education. This scenario “Lula maintained over Former President Lula was the shows two trends in this party’s 20% of voter intention, only candidate to hold 30% of candidacy: voter intention since the 2017 remaining a popular polls. Even at the height of the I. Absorption of other candidacies figure and leaving impeachment process and the considered to be to the left of in the population a widespread rejection of former the political image. This is more President Dilma Rousseff critical for Ciro Gomes, who, positive perception of (Workers’ Party), Lula maintained after Lula, held the best position his administration, a far over 20% of voter intention, in polls in the same ideological cry from the perception remaining a popular figure area (still tending more toward and leaving in the population center). Additionally, as he is left by his appointed a positive perception of his from the country’s Northeast successor” administration, a far cry from the Region, he also had to fight for perception left by his appointed the greater part of the region’s 40 successor. His personal image was million voters. Other candidates stronger than that of his party. that are even further to the left, such as the leader of the With no campaign promotion, Homeless Workers’ Movement Haddad is less known than the Guilherme Boulos (Socialism other candidates and is the and Liberty Party), appears as subject of less rejection among one of the political heirs of Lula, the voters who know of him. although with scant possibilities Additionally, he expects, backed of victory in 2018. by independent political experts and opinion polls, Lula will II. If a candidate surpasses 20% of manage to transfer at least 50% voter intention, they ensure the of his own voter intention to the Workers’ Party eligibility for the candidate of his choosing. Lula’s second round of voting, which communications power is not yet underscores the plebiscitary clear, although in 2010, the former nature of the second round in president backed and ultimately all of the likely scenarios. In succeeded in helping elect Dilma this case, all messages would Rousseff, who, until then, was converge into a debate on the more closely associated with approval or rejection of the bureaucracy than Workers’ Party Workers’ Party, in a process voters. that would be equally affected by voters’ perception of Therefore, if Lula successfully conditions subsequent to the transfers his support to the Lula administration and those new Workers’ Party candidate, existing in the wake of Rousseff. it will be a result of voters’ favorable perception of the Lula administration—and not only Precisely during the dichotomy of the Northeast Region voters period brought about by the and social program beneficiaries, Workers’ Party, in at least the last where support of Lula is very three years, Jair Bolsonaro has strong, but chiefly among the consolidated his support with 2 BRAZIL: DISPUTING NARRATIVES IN UNPREDICTABLE ELECTIONS voter intentions that range from 2002, Jose Serra, of the Brazilian 15% to 20%. Embracing the efforts Social Democracy Party, went on in social media to impeach Dilma to the second round with nearly Rousseff, Bolsonaro became the 18% of total votes, although loudest of the voices speaking Marina Silva in 2014, who ended against the Workers’ Party and up in third place, was ineligible “Embracing the efforts is now considered the leader of for the second round with more in social media to this movement. The assessment than 19% of total votes). here is the same as the one impeach Dilma Rousseff, brought forward by statesman Numbers have thus far shown Bolsonaro became the Paulo Guimaraes, with 29 years the territory had been split loudest of the voices of campaign experience, in an between Lula and Bolsonaro, speaking against the interview conducted by the who together covered 40% to newspaper Valor Economico1 50% of the electorate. It is a Workers’ Party and is mid-July: “Federal Deputy considerable amount yet only now considered the Jair Bolsonaro’s candidacy is half of the whole. The other half leader of this movement” elevated by the mistakes of may be comprised of voters who Lula’s adversaries. (...) If you’re are tired of hearing the same a candidate and you start story every election cycle and criticizing Lula, Dilma and the could be the deciding factor on Workers’ Party, voters will start to who moves on to the first round. think Bolsonaro is right.” Therefore, the polarity in relation to Lula or the Workers’ Party only 2. OPPOSITION TO THE directly benefits the Workers’ TEMER ADMINISTRATION Party candidate and Bolsonaro. The main risk Bolsonaro faces Paulo Guimaraes also pointed is precisely that of becoming out another narrative voters trapped in this space. In view of should consider come October the alliances formed between late 7: opposition to the Temer July and early August, Bolsonaro administration. For various is taking to the elections an all-or- reasons (drama ensuing from nothing approach based on this impeachment and lack of line of reasoning. communication from the government, corruption-related He initially proposed for the vice scandals, unpopular reform presidency the attorney who put measures such as those of the Rousseff’s impeachment process Workers’ Party, etc.), Michel Temer in motion, though he eventually is backed by only 6% of voters reached an agreement with and has a 70% strong rejection another former military officer of his presidency, accordin g to known for his far right ideals. Instituto Datafolha).2 Bolsonaro reinforced the same Guimaraes contrasts presidential- messages that helped him evaluation polls with those of obtain 20% of voter intention. voter intention and concludes This is precisely the group of only 40% of voters who voters who will determine who are opposed to the Temer will stay and who will move on administration have already to the second round of voting (in decided on a candidate (28% of 1https://www.valor.com.br/politica/5666723/bolsonaro-ja-esta-em-queda-diz-guru-do-dem 2https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2018/04/temer-e-reprovado-por-70-dos-brasileiros-mesmo-com- esforco-por-popularidade.shtml 3 BRAZIL: DISPUTING NARRATIVES IN UNPREDICTABLE ELECTIONS the total). Therefore, the group then, that Alckmin, after of voters exclusively associated formalizing the backing of the with opposition to the Temer party groups known as “Centrão” administration would be of (consisting of members of the considerable potential value. Such Temer administration, but sectors tend to be predominantly also of the Lula and Rousseff “The group of voters closer to the Workers’ Party, administrations), openly stated exclusively associated which gave rise to this group, he did not elect Temer, but rather although this may ultimately not the Workers’ Party did.3 This with opposition to the be a given, for two reasons: may become one of the campaign Temer administration slogans of the Brazilian Social would be of considerable I. By relying on Lula’s personal Democracy Party, considering popularity, the Workers’ Party the many votes against Temer.
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