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Low-Intensity Conflict in the Third World by Lewis B

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Low-Intensity Conflict in the Third World by Lewis B Library of Congress Cataloging-in-publication Data Low-Intensity Conflict in the Third World by Lewis B. Ware, et al . "August 1988." Includes bibliographies 1. Low-Intensity conflicts (Military science)-Developing countries. 2. United States-Military re- lations-Developing countries. 3. Developing countries-Military relations-United States . 4. World politics, 1945- 1. Blank, Stephen. 11 . Air University (US) Center for Aerospace Doctrine, Re- search, and Education. U240 .L69 1988 88-19395 355' .0215-dc 19 CIP ISBN 1-58566-022-1 First Printing August 1988 Second Printing May 1989 Third Printing December 1991 Fourth Printing April 1999 Fifth Printing July 2001 Sixth Printing January 2003 DISCLAIMER This publication was produced in the Department of Defense school environment in the interest of academic freedom and the advancement of national defense-related concepts. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the United States government . This publication has been reveiwed by security and policy review authorities and is cleared for public release. For Sale by the Superintendent of Documents US Government Printing Office Washington DC 20402 u Contents Page DISCLAIMER . ... .... ... ... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... .... ii FOREWORD . ... .... .... .... ... ... ... .... .... ... .... .... ... .... .... ... .... .... ... ........ v ABOUT THE AUTHORS . .... ... .... .... .... ... ... ... .... .... ... .... .... ... .... .... vii PREFACE... .... ... .... .... .... ... .... ... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... .... .... ix LOW-INTENSITY CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST-Dr Lewis B . Ware . ... .... .... .... ... .... ... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... .... .... 1 The Khomeinist Revolution.... .... .... ... .... .... ... ........ ... ..... ... ... .... .... 4 The Attempted Coup in Bahrain .... ... .... .... ... ... ... .... .... .... ... .... .... 8 The Lebanese Imbroglio...... .... .... .... ... .... .... ... ... .... .... .... .... ... .... .... 10 Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood .... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... 15 Islamism in Tunisia . ... .... .... .... .... ... .... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... 24 Conclusion .. ... .... .... ... .... .... ... .... ... ... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... ... .... .... .... 30 Notes . ... .. ... ... .... .... ... .... ... ... ... ... ... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... 33 SOVIET RUSSIA AND LOW-INTENSITY CONFLICT IN CENTRAL ASIA: THREE CASE STUDIES-Dr Stephen Blank . ... 37 The Basmachi Insurgency .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... 40 The Iran Invasions .. ... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... ... 43 The Afghanistan Invasion .... .... .... .... ... ... .... ... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... ... 51 Notes . ... .... ... ... .... .... ... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... .... .... ....... 74 FACTORS AFFECTING THE EMERGENCE OF LOW- INTENSITY CONFLICT IN LATIN AMERICA-Dr Bynum E. Weathers ... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... ... .... ... .... ... .... .... ... .... .. 81 Nicaragua.. .... ... .... .... .... .... .... ... .... .... ... .... .... ... ... .... .... .... .... ... .... .. 84 Chile... .... ... .... ... .... .... .... .... ... ... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... .... .. 88 Peru .... ... .... ... ... .... .... ... ... .... .... .... .... ... .... .... ... .... .... ............ ... .... .. 93 iii Page Conclusion ... .... .... ... .... .... ... .... .... ... .... .... ... .... .... .... ... .... ... .... .... ... 98 Notes . ... .... .... .... .... ... .... ....... .... .... ... .... .... ... .... .... ....... .... ... .... .... ... 101 LOW-INTENSITY CONFLICT IN SOUTHERN AFRICA-Dr Thomas P. Ofcansky ... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... 105 Zimbabwe . ... ... ... ... .... .... ... .... .... .... ... ... .... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... .... ... 106 Namibia .... ... .... .... .... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... .... ... 109 Angola ... .... ... ... ... ... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... ... .... .... .... ... .... .... ... ... .... .. 112 Mozambique . ... ... .... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... .... .... ... ........ ... 115 South Africa.. .... .... .... ... ... ... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... .... ... .... .... ... .... .... .. 119 Conclusion . ... .... .... .... ... ... ... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... .... ... .... .... ... .... .... .. 122 Notes .. .... ... ... .... .... .... .... ... ... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... .... .... 125 LOW-INTENSITY CONFLICT IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: CHALLENGES, RESPONSES, AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES-Dr Lawrence E. Grinter... .... .... ... ... ... ... .... .... 131 Indonesia. .... .... ... .... ... .... .... ... .... ... ... ... .... ... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... .... 133 The Philippines... ... ... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... ... .... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... .... 139 Indochina .... ... .... .... ... ... ... ... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... .... .... 146 Conclusion .. ... ... ... ... ... .... ... .... .... ... ... ... ... .... ... ... .... .... ... .... .... 154 Notes ... ... .... ... .... .... .... ... ... ... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... .... .... 157 US POLICY AND STRATEGIC PLANNING FOR LOW- INTENSITY CONFLICT-Jerome W. Klingaman. .... .... .... .... .... .... .... 161 Formulating Strategy for Low-Intensity Conflict . .... ... .... .... .... ... ... 161 The Problem of Definition .. ... .... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... ... 162 Explicit Language: The Fall from Grace .. .... .... ........ ... .... .... ... ... .. 164 The Significance of Low-Intensity Conflict.. .... .... .... ... .... .... ... ... ... 165 Strategy Implications . ... ... .... ... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... .... ... .... .... ... .... .. 167 Notes .. ... .... .... ... ... ... .... .... .... ... .... .... ... ... ... ... ... .... ... .... .... ... .... .. 178 iv FOREWORD The United States must improve its ability to cope with low-intensity conflict. We must become a great deal better at fighting this kind of war. We may learn quickly, in which case we will be able to cope with low- intensity conflict in the near-term; or we may learn slowly, in which case we will suffer years of frustration. Low-intensity warfare represents an arena of conflict for today and for tomorrow. There can be little doubt that it poses important problems for American interests and policy. And yet, because of the confusion that sur- rounds the understanding of low-intensity conflict, the United States has been ill-prepared to face its consequences. This book is a serious effort to make thinking about low-intensity conflict more understandable and, thus, more accessible to those who would form our national response to this pressing issue. It counsels the reader that low-intensity conflict appears in the guise of proxy warfare, religious extremism, ethnic and racial rivalries, and on the heels of failed developmental projects. All these events threaten our friends, our allies, and ourselves. The Soviet Union and its proxies have come to the conclusion that the global system is vulnerable to low-intensity conflict. We can therefore ex- pect more of it. Only when the United States has developed a flexible capacity to deal with its root causes around the world can we better secure our own interests and suppress Soviet efforts in this domain. The present volume takes a significant step toward framing the context in which a creative set of policies for low-intensity conflict can evolve. We all have a need to better understand this new, disturbing, and growing phenomenon. With that need in mind, we highly recommend it. THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ABOUT THE AUTHORS Dr Stephen Blank is a research associate in the Political-Military Affairs Division at the Air University Center for Aerospace Doctrine, Research, and Education (AUCADRE), Maxwell AFB, Alabama. He has been an assistant professor ofRussian and Soviet history at the University of Texas, San Antonio, and a visiting assistant professor of Russian history at the University of California, Riverside. He serves as a consultant on Soviet affairs to GE TEMPO (a General Electric think tank) and the Center for Strategic Technology at Texas A&M University. He has published many articles on Soviet nationality policy, foreign policies, and, more recent, military policy. Doctor Blank is presently completing a manuscript on the first years of Soviet nationality policy and the Commissariat of Nation- alities under Joseph Stalin. Dr Lawrence E. Grinter is professor of Asian studies in the Political- Military Affairs Division at AUCADRE. A former faculty member of the National War College and the Air War College, Doctor Grinter has pub- lished widely in his field, including Asian-Pacific Security (1986, coeditor), and East Asian Conflict Zones (1987, coeditor); and he has undertaken numerous studies for the National Security Council and the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Jerome W. Klingaman is a retired Air Force pilot with nine years
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