Felipe Calderón and the U.S. New Coordinates for the Bilateral Agenda

J. Jesús Esquivel * e u q r a m a L

n i v e K / s r e t u e R

onvincing the White House to promo te the White House without the political and m ora l a comprehensive immigration reform authority needed to impose the parame ters of Ccannot and should not be President legislation for the next 24 months. For Cal de - Fe lipe Calderón’s most important challenge in rón this is a great opportunity to re for mu late re - his relations with the United States. Calde ron’s lations with the United States which during the tactics have to be pragmatic since realpolitiks Fox administration erroneously con cen trated on demand that the Mexican president create a n ew acquiescing to Washington’s political clout, do - re lationship with the U.S. Congress, and the De m - minated by the Republicans. ocrats are now the real power in Washing ton, at Senator Harry Reid (Nevada) and Congress - least for the next two years. wo man Nancy Pelosi (California), Demo cratic President Bush and the Republican Party’s majority leaders in the two houses of Cong ress defeat in the November 7 midterm elections left that opened their sessions in mid-Janua ry 2007, control their country’s poli tical agenda. Mex ico’s attention will center on three issues: * Weekly magazine Proceso and radio news broad - immi grat ion, trade and the fight against drug cast “Enfoque” correspondent in Washington, D. C. trafficking.

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Mexico’s insistence on the issue of The Calderón administration seems It is said of De Icaza, a wooden, immigration that the Fox administra - to have understood the political mes - arro gant diplomat, that he “was born tion zeroed in on in its relations with sage sent by the Bush/Repu blican de - and grew up an ambassador,” by way the U.S. makes no sense to the Demo - feat. It was right to put U.S. immigra - of justifying his ineffectiveness; be - cratic leadership. This is obvious from tion legislation reform low on its list of cause of his lack of political acumen, Re presentative Pelosi’s decision to leav e priorities because it knows that soon - he became a simple puppet of former the comprehensive reform of immigr a - er or later, with the Demo crats holding Foreign Minister Luis Ernesto Derbez . tion legislation off the list of priorities the balance of power in Washington, The lack of the initiative that a polit - for the new Congress. Reid did exact - Ca pi tol Hill will have to pass a law deal - ical ambassador would have brought ly the same thing. ing with it, without it being a radical to the job was noticeable in the way When President-elect Calderón vi s - or racist blow against Mexican immi - relations with Democratic legislators it ed Washington last November 9, he grants, since it was the Republicans, were neglect ed during the entire Fox realized this and sent the Capitol a with support from the White House, admin istration. This led directly to Pe - messa ge that his administration would who tried to criminalize them. losi’s decision to eliminate immigra - focus more on efforts to keep Mex- Last November 8, Bush became a tion reform from her list of legislative icans in Mexico than on justifying the la me duck president, centering only on priorities. economic errors he was inheriting from finding a way to live with the Demo - The most urgent issue the Cal de - Fox. There continues to be, however, cr ats that will not affect his own party ró n administration will face in its rela - a need for the United States to amend tions with the United States is that old its immigration legislation to benefit the saw: the war against drug trafficking. community of seven to eight million Drug-trafficking-related violence, The most urgent issue undocumented Mexican immigrants wh ich has grown and taken root through - the Cal de rón administration who have lived and worked in that out Mexico, including in the capital, is will face in its rela tions country for many years now. a disease the Americans do not want to with the United States Pelosi said that President Cal de - catch. On Reid and Pelosi’s list of social is the war against rón’s vision was interesting and time - priorities, the fight against drug con - drug trafficking. ly, and at least more responsible, and sump tion and dealing is urgent for a that she hoped he did what he said he simple reason: Bush has ignored it all was going to do. these years because he concentrated Even if it is not one of the De mo - even more, which the polls and experts almost entire ly on Iraq and the war crats’ priorities, U.S. immigration re form say runs the risk of losing the White against terrorism. is a necessity. Unfortunately, how ever, House in 2008. Drug consumption in the U.S. si len t - it does not have the least political-elec - The Calderón administration should ly rose 15 percent from 2003 to 2005 toral weight, as could be seen in the deepen, broaden and improve its rela - according to Drug Enforcement Agenc y November 7 elections in which the Iraq tions with the Democrats in the U.S. (DEA ) figures. This is read on the Hill war was the fundamental issue that House and Senate. This means that it as the Mexican government’s failure in fueled the Democrats’ spectacular de - really needs to choose someone with the fight against drug trafficking, and feat of Bush and the Repu blicans. For a political profile, even if he is a mem ber as always, the producing or transit coun - that reason, Pelosi did not include im - of Mexico’s Foreign Se rvice, as ambas - tries get more of the blame than the migration on her list of priorities: the sador to Washington .1 Mexico’s U.S. em - con sum ing country, which is directly Speaker of the House has her eye on bas sy needs to be thoroughly cleansed respon sible for the increase in demand. Iraq, the social agenda and the U.S. of anything smacking of Foxism. Car los “The fight against organized crime econ omy because they will play a vital de Icaza, the outgoing Mexican ambas - will be my administration’s most diffi - role in deciding who comes out on top s ador, is a perfect example of our for - cult challenge,” said Calderón last No - in the 2008 presidential race, which the eign policy’s ineffectiveness over the v em ber 9 in Washington, D.C. The Democrats are determined to win. last six years. De mocrats and even the White House

12 POLITICS

will be paying close attention to pro - De la Madrid and Salinas admi n istra- were promoted by Bush and the Repu b - gress made in this area because once ti ons until 1994, Capitol Hill made the licans in frank violation of NAFTA pro vi - Iraq changes course, the Repu blicans’ sharpest criticisms of the Mex ican gov - sions are and will continue to be com mon electoral inter ests in 2008 will be to ernment’s fight against drug traffick ing, practice under a Democratic Con gress. distance themselves completely from sometimes causing a radical cooling of The U.S. transportation indus try and the president, who will not be able to bilateral relations. farmers continue to be economically reciprocate in order to not create the If he does not take a hard, impar - un t ouchable because of their electora l image of a divided party. tia l stance in the war against organized and political importance for both Re - In this context, once again the Mex - crime, Calderón will face a situation publicans and Democrats. ican government will come under the similar to the one the PRI presidents did Calderón’s pragmatism would be watchful eye of some of the United when Washington dubbed them cor - an essential tool for dealing with issues States’ federal agencies like the DEA , rupt beneficiaries of the drug cartels. li ke corn and other grains, where Mex - the Central Intelligence Agency and the In a House of Representatives led by ican farmers have been displaced and Federal Bureau of Investigation, which the Democrats, some legislators, par ti c - hurt by existing U.S. farm subsidies. will take note of the Calderón govern - ularly from border states, continue to try This issue could be the measure of ment’s slightest actions against orga - to reestablish the certification of the Me x - the Mexican president’s tolerance vis- nized crime, hoping even to investigate ican government’s anti-drug effort s, a pra c - à-vis Washington, more than the war cases of alleged involvement of highly tice discontinued in 2001 as part of a pro - against drugs in which the Mexican pl aced military officers, politicians and go vernment must participate because o f members of the president’s family in its national interest. The U.S. Congress drug trafficking, which were ignored and the executive have trampled on The other priority during the Fox administration. many trade interests since 1994. is transportation and agriculture, Because of the implications and vio - The World Trade Organization areas in which Calderón lent consequences of drug trafficking, could be the ideal forum for Calderón is obliged to defend Mexican even if Washington were more self-cri t - to defend Mexico’s rights and inter est s interests that Fox put on ical in its assessment of the increase fro m U.S. incompliance and vio lations the back burner. in drug consumption, narcotics will once of NAFTA mandates. If Calderón handles again become all-pervasive in Mex ican - rela tions with the United States astutely U.S. relations like they were during and pragma tically, following closely the the Insti tu tional Revolutionary Party ject to get Latin America to improve its cannons of international diplomacy like presidencies of Miguel de la Madrid anti-drug production and tr afficking ef - Ar gen ti na, Chile and Brazil do, for exam- Hurtado (1982-1988), Carlos Salinas forts without pressure from Washington. p le, Mexicans and particularly undocu - de Gorta ri (1988-1994) and Ernesto The other priority in the new Mex - mented migrants could benefit from the Zedillo Ponce de León (1994-2000). ico-U.S. relations during the Cal de rón change in political power in Washing - The United States’ southern border administration is pending trade issues: ton , which with the Demo crats has gon e is a latent concern for the White House transportation and agriculture. In these fro m a bellicose conservative radicalism because of its fear of contagion from areas, Calderón is obliged to defend Mex - represented by Bush and the Repub li - Mexican drug-traffic related violence. ican interests that Fox pu t on the back cans, to a self-critical conservative lib e - During the Fox administration, Bush burner in favor of con centrating on the ral is m with a view to the 2008 presi - relegated criticisms, demands and de - immigration issue. Sometimes they were dential elections. nun ciations of this violence to Tony not even mentioned for fear of irritating Garza, his ambassador in Mexico City. the Repub licans and the White House, ≤ NOTES With the Democrats as the new power which in turn hurt perspectives for im - 1 By the close of this edition, Calderón had in town, the panorama changes. migration reform. nominated Arturo Sarukhán as Mexico’s am - When the Democratic Party had The enormous trade advantages the bassador to the United States, a young politi - cian whose profile fits the author’s description. the majority in Congress during the Americans have over Mexicans that [Editor’s Note.]

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