Tempests, Tsunamis and Tents: Interdisciplinary perspectives on coastal disaster recovery

Brian G. McAdoo , Stanford University and Vassar College Laura Kong , UNESCO/IOC Tsunami Information Center Acknowledgements

Hermann Fritz , Georgia Tech

Andrew Moore , Earlham College

Katrin Monecke , University of Pittsburgh

Peter Walker , Tufts University

Don Degroot , University of Massachusetts Beverley Wright , Deep South Center for Environmental Justice Hamzah Lateif , Institute of Technology Bandung Rahman Hidyat , BPPT Widjo Kongko , DHI-WASY Dale Dominy-Howes , University of New South Wales James Goff , National Institute of Water and Atmosphere David Johnston , Institute of Geological and Nuclear Science Jens Kruger , South Pacific Applied Geosciences Commission Wilson Rafiau , Department of Mines and Geology Acknowledgements government economic development paleotsunami fluid dynamics tourism food systems ecosystem valuation modeling coral reef indigenous knowledge fisheries environmental justice mangrove perception early warning systems dunes sediment transport salt marsh education coseismic uplift 80

70 Tsunami and Cyclones over the last 100 years 60 Cyclones 50 Tsunami (including 2004) Tsunami (excluding 2004) 40 y = 0.1115x - 215.65

Death Rate Death R² = 0.078 30

(deaths/1population) global M 20 y = 0.0888x - 150.27 R² = 0.02 10 y = -0.0081x + 16.518 R² = 0.2011 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 • The ten worst cyclones in the last 100 years killed almost 1,000,000 people or ~10,000 people on average per year •Tsunami in the last 100 years killed almost 250,000 people (20,000 before 2004) or 2,500 (200) people per year • The rate of cyclone deaths is outpacing global population growth rate • The rate of tsunami deaths is also rising faster than global population • Tsunami deaths are declining if 2004 is excluded- but is that reasonable?

source- EM-DAT and NOAA/NGDC What can we do about Whatit? do about can we

Why Why are more people dying? Resilience stormfrequency pollution, pollution, etc.) US Atlantic/Caribbean US vulnerability (food security, (foodvulnerability security, Japan/Philippines/Micronesia Ocean Australia/Indian – – – – – Climate Change? Climate Coastal populations Coastal exposure and Risk • • • Exposure International Tsunami Survey Teams • UNESCO/IOC • Costas Synolakis, USC, Civil Engineering/Fluid Dynamics – Measure wave properties on land – Model wave propagation, timing, heights, etc. – Tsunami Warning Systems • Need for Geoscientists – Tsunami sedimentation- paleo, transport props (velocity, power, etc.) – Landscape interactions… • 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami – Event overwhelmed scientific capacity – Necessary for engineers, geoscientists to collaborate • Need to collaborate with life scientists and social scientists for interdisciplinary perspectives Recent Events • 2004/2005 Indian Ocean Tsunamis ( 230,000 ) • 2005 Hurricane Katrina ( 1,836 ) • 2006 Java Tsunami ( 547 ) • 2007 Solomon Islands Tsunami ( 54 ) • 2008 Cyclone Nargis (130,000 or a lot less?) 2004/2005 Indian Ocean Tsunamis (230,000+) Buffers? • Reef • Dune • Mangroves Early Warning System? • near field vs far field • Indigenous Knowledge Paleo events • Coral microatolls • Paleotsunami Redevelopment? • Coastal zone setbacks (Sri Lanka) • Land use

24 December 2004 Magnitude 9.3 Gleebruk Village avg. runup 10-15 m, max runup > 30 m Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam 230,000 dead Indonesia 2005 Hurricane Katrina (1,836) • Engineering failure • Land use • Income/racial disparities • Government response

Hurricane Katrina Waveland Cat 5, max winds 280 km/h Mississippi 1,836 dead, $90 B in damages USA 2006 Java (547) Warnings • Local EQ and tsunami (5 minutes) • High swell day • “slow” event (M=7.8 with an 8 m tsunami) Land use • Rice paddy • Flat, coastal lands (anti-buffers) • Food security

17 July 2006 Batu Hiu Magnitude 7.8 6-8 m average runup, 20 m + max Java 547 dead Indonesia 2007 Solomon Islands Tsunami (54) Reef reef – Damage lagoon • Earthquake • Uplift mangrove • Fisheries… • Tourism (SCUBA diving) – Buffer? Indigenous knowledge

2 April 2007 Niu Manra Village (Gilbertese) Magnitude 8.1 Ghizo Island, Western Province 5 m average runup, max runup 12 m Solomon Islands 54 dead ?

Cyclone Nargis 2 May 2008 Cat 4, 215 km/h (130,000 dead, $10 B in damages)* government economic development paleotsunami fluid dynamics tourism food systems modeling coral reef indigenous knowledge fisheries

mangrove early warning systems dunes sediment transport salt marsh

coseismic uplift education government economic development fluid dynamics paleotsunami tourism food systems modeling coral reef indigenous knowledge fisheries

mangrove early warning systems dunes sediment transport salt marsh

coseismic uplift education government economic development

fluid dynamics tourism paleotsunami food systems modeling coral reef indigenous knowledge fisheries

mangrove early warning systems dunes sediment transport salt marsh

coseismic uplift education Yala Village 7 m tsunami 5 cm in resort

Yala National Park Yala Safari 7 m tsunami Sri Lanka 27 dead government economic development paleotsunami fluid dynamics tourism food systems modeling coral reef indigenous knowledge fisheries

mangrove early warning systems dunes sediment transport salt marsh

coseismic uplift education A sedimentary record of prehistoric tsunamis for West Aceh, Indonesia K. Monecke et al. submitted to Nature The Problem • Data poor countries – baselines • What level to we rebuild to? – Better than before – More sustainable (ecologically, economically) – Hazard resistant • Post-disaster assessments – Interdisciplinary teams following response phase • Funding for representative teams (disciplinary and geographic) – Open communication , cooperation and collaboration essential framework

Small teams Geo/Demographic spread civil engineer US geoscientist Australia Japan coastal ecologists Singapore (terrestrial and marine) Indonesia economic geographer Philippines educator Bangladesh anthropologist India Central America policy analyst Peru/Chile psychologist Caribbean

Partnership for International Research and Education (NSF) US and Australia (ARC) leaders How to get funding for partners? Public-Private Partnership? cooperation vs. competition

Interdisciplinary cooperation Engineers, scientists (social, natural), policy makers working with locals (they know better than we do!) Post-disaster surveys Learnings to leaders, NGOs, planners, academics, ISDR… ASSISTANCE? [email protected] [email protected]