remote sensing Article Land Use Scenario Simulation and Ecosystem Service Management for Different Regional Development Models of the Beibu Gulf Area, China Dengyue Zhao 1, Mingzhu Xiao 2, Chunbo Huang 1,3,* , Yuan Liang 2 and Zitao Yang 1 1 Research Center for Spatial Planning and Human-Environment System Simulation, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430078, China;
[email protected] (D.Z.);
[email protected] (Z.Y.) 2 School of Arts and Communication, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China;
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[email protected] (Y.L.) 3 College of Horticulture and Forestry Sciences/Hubei Engineering Technology Research Center for Forestry Information, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China * Correspondence:
[email protected] Abstract: Land use change is an important way for human activities to affect ecosystems. Based on the land use demands and policies, the simulation of future land use changes under different scenarios can test the rationality of socio-economic and policy-oriented land use changes. In this study, we set three scenarios of regular growth, ecological protection, and ecotourism development in 2030 for the Beibu Gulf area, China. We simulated the spatial distribution and evolution characteristics of the future landscape pattern using the Scenario Generator Rule Based Module of InVEST. Meanwhile, the ecosystem service value (ESV) was estimated by the improved unit area value equivalent method to reveal the trend of ESVs under different regional development models. The results indicated that Citation: Zhao, D.; Xiao, M.; the land use changes in the Beibu Gulf during 1999–2014 showed significant spatial heterogeneity.