China’s Past, China’s Future China has a population of 1.3 billion people, which puts strain on her natural resources. This volume, by one of the leading scholars on the earth’s biosphere, is the result of a lifetime of study on China, and provides the fullest account yet of the environmental challenges that China faces. The author examines China’s energy resources, their uses, impacts and prospects, from the 1970s oil crisis to the present day, before analyzing the key question of how China can best produce enough food to feed its enormous population. In answering this question the entire food chain – the environmental setting, post-harvest losses, food processing, access to food and actual nutritional requirements – is examined, as well as the most effective methods of agricultural management. The final chapters focus upon the dramatic cost to the country’s environment caused by China’s rapid industrialization. The widespread environ- mental problems discussed include: • water and air pollution • water shortage • soil erosion • deforestation • desertification • loss of biodiversity In conclusion, Smil argues that the decline of the Chinese ecosystem and environ- mental pollution has cost China about 10 per cent of her annual GDP. This book provides the best available synthesis on the environmental conse- quences of China’s economic reform program, and will prove essential reading to scholars with an interest in China and the environment. Vaclav Smil is Distinguished Professor in the Faculty of Environment, University of Manitoba, Canada. He is widely recognized as one of the world’s leading authorities on the biosphere and China’s environment. He is the author of many books, including The Earth’s Biosphere, Enriching the Earth, Feeding the World and China’s Environment. Asia’s transformations Edited by Mark Selden Binghamton University and Cornell University, USA The books in this series explore the political, social, economic and cultural conse- quences of Asia’s transformations in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. The series emphasizes the tumultuous interplay of local, national, regional and global forces as Asia bids to become the hub of the world economy. While focusing on the contemporary, it also looks back to analyse the antecedents of Asia’s contested rise. This series comprises several strands: Asia’s transformations aims to address the needs of students and teachers, and the titles will be published in hardback and paperback. Titles include The Battle for Asia Mao’s Children in the New China From Decolonization to Globalization Voices from the Red Guard Mark T. Berger Generation Yarong Jiang and David Ashley Ethnicity in Asia Edited by Colin Mackerras Chinese Society Change, Conflict and Resistance Chinese Society, 2nd edition Edited by Elizabeth J. Perry and Mark Change, Conflict and Resistance Selden Edited by Elizabeth J. Perry and Mark Selden Opium, Empire and the Global The Resurgence of East Asia Political Economy 500, 150 and 50 Year Perspectives Carl A. Trocki Edited by Giovanni Arrighi, Takeshi Hamashita and Mark Selden Japan’s Comfort Women Sexual Slavery and Prostitution during The Making of Modern Korea World War II and the US Occupation Adrian Buzo Yuki Tanaka Korean Society Hong Kong’s History Civil Society, Democracy and the State State and Society under Colonial Rule Edited by Charles K. Armstrong Edited by Tak-Wing Ngo Remaking the Chinese State Debating Human Rights Strategies, Society and Security Critical Essays from the United States Edited by Chien-min Chao and and Asia Bruce J. Dickson Edited by Peter Van Ness Asia’s great cities: Each volume aims to capture the heartbeat of the contemporary city from multiple perspectives emblematic of the author’s own deep familiarity with the distinctive faces of the city, its history, society, culture, politics and economics, and its evolving position in national, regional and global frameworks. While most volumes emphasize urban developments since the Second World War, some pay close attention to the legacy of the longue durée in shaping the contemporary. Thematic and comparative volumes address such themes as urbanization, economic and financial linkages, architecture and space, wealth and power, gendered relationships, planning and anarchy, and ethnographies in national and regional perspective. Titles include Hong Kong Beijing in the Modern World Global City David Strand and Madeline Yue Dong Stephen Chiu and Tai-Lok Lui Bangkok Shanghai Place, Practice and Representation Global City Marc Askew Jeff Wasserstrom Singapore Carl Trocki Asia.com is a series which focuses on the ways in which new information and communication technologies are influencing politics, society and culture in Asia. Titles include Asia.com Japanese Cybercultures Asia Encounters the Internet Edited by Mark McLelland and Edited by K. C. Ho, Randolph Kluver Nanette Gottlieb and Kenneth C. C. Yang RoutledgeCurzon studies in Asia’s transformations is a forum for innovative new research intended for a high-level specialist readership, and the titles will be available in hardback only. Titles include Chinese Media, Global Contexts Imperialism in South East Asia Edited by Chin-Chuan Lee “A Fleeting, Passing Phase” Internationalizing the Pacific The American Occupation of The United States, Japan and the Japan and Okinawa * Institute of Pacific Relations in War Literature and Memory and Peace, 1919–1945 Michael Molasky Tomoko Akami Koreans in Japan Critical Voices from the Margin Edited by Sonia Ryang * now available in paperback Critical Asian scholarship is a series intended to showcase the most important indi- vidual contributions to scholarship in Asian Studies. Each of the volumes presents a leading Asian scholar addressing themes that are central to his or her most significant and lasting contribution to Asian studies. The series is committed to the rich variety of research and writing on Asia, and is not restricted to any particular discipline, theoretical approach or geographical expertise. China’s Past, China’s Future Women and the Family in Energy, Food, Environment Chinese History Vaclav Smil Patricia Buckley Ebrey China Unbound Southeast Asia Evolving Perspectives on the A Testament Chinese Past George McT. Kahin Paul A. Cohen China’s Past, China’s Future Energy, food, environment Vaclav Smil First published 2004 by RoutledgeCurzon 29 West 35th Street, New York, NY 10001 Simultaneously published in the UK by RoutledgeCurzon 11 New Fetter Lane, London EC4P 4EE This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2004. RoutledgeCurzon is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group © 2004 Vaclav Smil All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Smil, Vaclav. China’s past, China’s future: energy, food, environment/Vaclav Smil. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. China–Environmental conditions. 2. Power resources–China. 3. Food supply–China. I. Title. GE160.C6C63 2003 304.2'8'0951–dc21 2003006064 ISBN 0-203-56320-4 Master e-book ISBN ISBN 0-203-33853-7 (Adobe eReader Format) ISBN 0–415–31498–4 (hbk) ISBN 0–415–31499–2 (pbk) For is and is-not come together; Hard and easy are complementary; Long and short are relative; High and low are comparative; Pitch and sound make harmony; Before and after are a sequence. Laozi, Dao de jing Contents List of illustrations xi Preface xiii Acknowledgments xiv List of abbreviations xvi 1 Introduction: China’s biophysical foundations 1 My Chinese experiences 1 Challenges of understanding 4 Interdisciplinary perspectives 7 2 Energy 9 Half a century of advances 9 The continuing importance of traditional energies 27 A failed strategy 42 From a new Saudi Arabia to concerns about oil security 52 A remarkable shift in energy intensities 60 3 Food 72 The world’s greatest famine 73 From subsistence to satiety 87 Dietary transitions 99 Nitrogen in China’s agriculture 109 Can China feed itself? 120 4 Environment 141 Attitudes and constraints 142 The first of the five elements 152 China’s environment and security 168 The cost of China’s environmental change 178 Megaprojects and China’s environment 190 x Contents 5 Looking ahead by looking back 207 Failed forecasts 207 Contending trends 212 Appendix 216 Bibliography 217 Index 229 Illustrations Tables 3.1 China’s average food per capita availability, 1930s–1970s 93 4.1 Economic costs attributable to air and water pollution 184 4.2 Economic costs attributable to land use changes and soil degradation 186 A.1 Units of measurement 216 A.2 Quantitative abbreviations 216 Figures 2.1 Growth of China’s fossil fuel extraction and hydroelectricity generation, 1950–2000 10 2.2 China’s sedimentary basins 20 2.3 Energy flows in China’s agroecosystem in 1974 32 2.4 China’s rural energy consumption 39 2.5 An efficient stove designed in Shandong’s Wenshang county in 1986 41 2.6 Long-term trends of energy intensities in the USA, Canada, UK and Japan, 1900–2000 61 2.7Energy intensity of China’s economy, 1952–2000 62 3.1 Average per capita availability of food energy and dietary protein, 1950–1980 76 3.2 Areas annually affected by drought and flood in China,