Israel and the Middle East News Update

Friday, August 19

Headlines:  Lieberman’s Carrot and Stick Policy Receives Criticism from All Sides  PA Withdraws Opposition to Cairo Peace Initiative  Arab States Won’t Demand Vote on Israel at IAEA Conference  MK Shelah: Netanyahu’s ‘Aggression’ Ruined U.S. Aid Deal  Two Gunmen Shot Dead in Nablus by Palestinian Authority Security Forces  US: $400 Million Cash Delivery to Iran Was Leverage for Prisoner Release  Turkey Still Insists Assad Must Go

Commentary:  New York Times: “Israel’s New Man in New York”  By Carol Giacomo, Foreign Affairs Correspondent, New York Times Editorial Board  Wall Street Journal: “’s Conundrum: Fighting Other Jihadists”  By Yaroslav Trofimov, Columnist and Senior Correspondent, Wall Street Journal

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● David Abreu, Associate Editor

News Excerpts August 19, 2016

Ma’ariv Lieberman Carrots-Stick Plan Receives Criticism from All Sides Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman’s “carrot and stick” plan announced yesterday has received criticism from both sides of the political spectrum. MK Yoav Kish (Likud) said that “Lieberman has gotten confused. His carrots are a stick for Jewish settlement. It is not conceivable that Amona is being demolished while illegal Arab construction is being legalized.” In contrast, former defense minister MK Amir Peretz (Zionist Union) said, “Holding a dialogue with the local Palestinian leadership in accordance with the defense minister’s instructions to the Civil Administration is important for the security of Israel and coexistence between the two peoples, but let no one fool himself that this will constitute an alternative for a national leadership. Such attempts have failed in the past because a true solution with an agreement about the end of the conflict and an end to demands can only be achieved with the formal Palestinian national leadership. The methods of divide and conquer have failed in the past and there is no reason to develop unfounded expectations.” See also, “Lieberman’s ‘Carrot and Stick’ Security Plan Blasted by Right and Left” (Jerusalem Post)

Israel Radio News PA Withdraws Opposition to Cairo Peace Initiative Sources in Ramallah say that the Palestinian Authority has withdrawn its opposition to the Egyptian initiative to convene a regional and international conference in Cairo to start the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians. They said that Abu Mazen met with Egyptian officials in Ramallah and made it clear to them that he does not oppose the conference as long as it is in coordination with the French initiative and not in place of it. See also, “Abbas No Longer Opposed to Cairo Peace Summit” (Times of Israel)

BICOM Arab States Won't Demand Vote on Israel at IAEA Conference Arab states, led by Egypt, have decided not to force what has become a perennial vote on Israel’s nuclear capability at the upcoming International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) conference. Two reasons are suggested to be behind the Arab states’ decision. Firstly, the high probability of losing a vote. Secondly, the growing warm relations between Israel and Egypt, which has usually spearheaded the issue at the IAEA. Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry recently visited Israel, and the two countries are thought to cooperate closely on security. See also, “Foreign Ministry Director Bars All Diplomats from Contacting Israeli Journalists” (Ha'aretz)

Arutz Sheva MK Shelah: Netanyahu's ‘Aggression’ Ruined U.S. Aid Deal MK Ofer Shelah (Yesh Atid) blasted Prime Minister Netanyahu on his Facebook page, asserting that his "aggression" caused the US to cut back on security aid. "Netanyahu is bad for security, and now it's clear just how bad," Shelah wrote. "I have - and every Israeli needs to have - concern about the billions that the arrogance and foreign interests of the Prime Minister have cost us in US aid." 2

Jerusalem Post Two Gunmen Shot Dead in Nablus by PA Security Forces During a raid on Nablus’s old city early Friday morning, the Palestinian Authority Security Forces (PASF) shot and killed two gunmen, suspected of killing two PASF officers Wednesday evening, according to PASF spokesman Adnan al-Damiri. “In an operation to arrest the criminals, who killed two members of the security services, a team of security forces came under fire and then returned fire, leading to the death of two of the criminals,” Damiri told Wafa, the official Palestinian Authority news site. PASF also confiscated weapons and other illegal paraphernalia that had been in the possession of the deceased gunmen. See also, “Four Dead in Nablus as Palestinian Police Battle Gunmen” (Times of Israel)

Times of Israel US: $400 Million to Iran Was Leverage for Prisoner Release The US State Department on Thursday said that a $400 million cash payment to Iran was used as “leverage” to secure the release in January of four American prisoners held by Tehran, as negotiations for the implementation of last year’s nuclear deal were being settled. “The payment of the $400 million was not done until after the prisoners were released,” State Department spokesman John Kirby told reporters Thursday. “We took advantage of that to make sure we had the maximum leverage possible to get our people out and get them out safely,” Kirby added. See also, “Republicans Target Obama After Iran Payout Linked to Hostage Release” (Times of Israel)

Ynet News Turkey Still Insists Assad Must Go In an extensive interview with Ashraq al-Aswat, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that Turkey's stance on Bashar al-Assad remaining in power will not change despite the improvement in relations with Russia. "We are talking about the practical side of things, not the emotional or personal," said Foreign Minister Cavusoglu to the pro-Saudi newspaper. "Assad has murdered more than 600,000 people and as such, we do not believe that opposition factions will agree to his staying in power or his presence in any power transfer agreement." As for the dialogue with the Russians on the matter, the Turkish Foreign Minister said, "We believe that Assad must go as soon as possible and it is impossible for a transfer of power process to occur with his presence. I think they are still sticking with their position on the matter and therefore, there should be more dialogue with the Russian side."

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New York Times – August 18, 2016 Israel's New Man in New York By Carol Giacomo  Dani Dayan is articulate and charming, a lively and provocative conversationalist. An immigrant from Argentina and a Spanish speaker, he is an Israeli settler from the West Bank, and the controversial former head of the settler movement.  Mr. Dayan is also a fervent opponent of a Palestinian state and believes Israel has a historic claim to the West Bank. That is not the position of Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who says he supports two states.  Yet, Mr. Dayan, 60, is the man Mr. Netanyahu has sent to be Israel’s consul general in New York. It was the consolation prize after Brazil rejected his appointment as Israel’s ambassador to that country because of his settler background. The consul general job is an important and sensitive one, especially in a year when partisan divisions in Washington have widened over the Iran nuclear deal, which Mr. Netanyahu and the Republican-led Congress oppose. Mr. Dayan met with the Editorial Board this week to discuss his latest career challenges. Excerpts from the hour-long conversation, condensed and edited, are below:  You are not a run-of-the-mill diplomat or bureaucrat. How do you see your new job?  I really have no difficulty representing this government. It is well known that I identify with this government. I campaigned for the formation of this government. I endorsed Mr. Netanyahu in the last two elections and campaigned for him. My role is to garner support for Israel in New York. I’m a diplomat today, not a leader myself or a decision maker.  How will you deal with conflicts between AIPAC, The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which is seen as supportive of Mr. Netanyahu’s policies, and J Street, a more liberal group that has often been critical of Mr. Netanyahu?  I can’t ignore it. And you know I think that any position within the Jewish community for sure, but any position that does not preclude Israel’s right to exist, is legitimate. I’m not talking about those fanatics or demagogues that, in fact, are against the existence of Israel. But all the other groups that are pro-Israel, that are empathic towards Israel — they love Israel but criticize it, sometimes strongly, and have been disenchanted with Israel on some of its policies or even most of its policies with the current government — they are not only legitimate interlocutors, in some sense they are going to be my main interlocutors in the Jewish community. Look, I didn’t come here to preach to the choir. I will allocate a disproportionate amount of my time to those that in some sense love Israel but are disappointed. The perception that Israel in some sense is becoming a partisan issue in American politics is also a matter of grave concern to me.  Are you including J Street in that outreach because you have been quoted in the press as being critical of them, suggesting they are anti-Israel?

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 No, I never said they are anti-Israel. There was a minor incident that I took responsibility for the phrasing. You know, English is not my native language. I had a TV interview and my opponent said that the welcome to Donald Trump at the AIPAC convention contradicts Jewish values. And I said, look, I am much more concerned about some candidates that are endorsed by J Street, which are — not J Street, the candidates — anti-Israeli, and I intended to say, you know, symmetrically, that contradicts Jewish values, and at the end I said it’s un-Jewish. And that was a mistake to say un-Jewish. I never said J Street is un-Jewish; I just said a certain position by J Street contradicts Jewish values. I have personal very good relations with J Street leadership. I don’t believe in ostracizing.  Isn’t your position on the West Bank quite different from Mr. Netanyahu’s, given that he has committed himself to a two-state solution and you say it is impossible?  Prime Minister Netanyahu is committed to establishing the Palestinian state as a way to achieve peace if it is a demilitarized Palestinian state and it recognizes Israel as a Jewish state and there are security arrangements that will prevent further attacks on Israel. I think that I do not disagree with Prime Minister Netanyahu in the perception that it is not going to happen in the near future and the reason it’s not going to happen has nothing to do with Israel or with the settlements. It’s 100 percent because of the Palestinian positions.  Do we understand correctly that Israel has plans to do outreach among Latinos in the New York region, including targeted scholarships?  Definitely I am. We identified different communities in the New York area as a priority; I will dedicate a very large amount of my time and effort to the Hispanic community, the Latino community.  Who is better for Israel, Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?  Any American president is good for Israel. Carol Giacomo, a former diplomatic correspondent for Reuters in Washington, covered foreign policy for the international wire service for more than two decades before joining The Times editorial board in August 2007.

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Wall Street Journal – August 18, 2016 Hezbollah’s Conundrum: Fighting Other Jihadists, Not Israel

Once admired in region for confronting Israel, the Iranian-backed Shiite militia finds itself fighting fellow jihadists.

By Yaroslav Trofimov  Bint Jbeil, —Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah last weekend addressed a rally to celebrate the group’s 2006 “divine victory” against Israel, thundering for more than an hour about the impending demise of the Zionist enemy.  But it’s not against Israel that young men in the audience here have been fighting of late.  The predicament for Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Shiite militia that used to command widespread admiration in the region for confronting Israel, is that its battle today is almost exclusively against fellow jihadists, albeit of a Sunni kind, and increasingly further away from home turf in Syria’s foreign battlefields.  While the Israeli border just south of here has remained quiet since the 2006 war, more than 1,000 Hezbollah fighters have died in Syria over the past three years, and many more have been injured—a painful casualty rate for a group with an estimated strength of between 15,000 and 30,000 men. Portraits of this new crop of “martyrs” adorn the roadsides across south Lebanon.  With their morale high and their superior training and equipment, these Hezbollah units have become indispensable for the survival of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime—which also means they have become bogged down in battles all over Syria, not just along Lebanon’s borders but also in remote Aleppo and Palmyra.  Hezbollah’s approach has been to portray both wars as part of the same conflict. Mr. Nasrallah has repeatedly described Islamic State and al Qaeda’s Syrian offshoot as creations of Israel and the U.S., a conspiracy designed to weaken Islamic unity.  In last weekend’s address, Mr. Nasrallah triumphantly cited a statement by the U.S. Republican presidential nominee, Donald Trump, who had accused President Barack Obama and his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton of founding Islamic State, as a long-awaited confirmation of this theory. Among the Hezbollah cadres, that’s an article of faith. “ISIS is the creation of Israel, so we have to destroy the creation before we can destroy the creator,” said Ali Khulali, one of the participants in the Bint Jbeil war anniversary event. He had a two-pronged sword of Zulfiqar—a symbol often used by Shiites—tattooed on his neck.  Hammad Mughniyeh, a 21-year-old at the rally, said he hopes to soon be deployed to Syria. “Before Syria, we excelled in guerrilla war. In Syria, we have learned a lot of new and different tactics, and these will lead us to victory over Israel,” he said. Many other Lebanese and Arabs laugh at such explanations. They point out that Syria’s biggest city of Aleppo in the north, where Hezbollah is now locked in bloody urban battles, lies in the opposite direction from Jerusalem, which the militia has long pledged to “liberate.”

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 “Hezbollah is now considered by the Syrian people as a terrorist organization, as an occupation force that leads an almost colonial war,” said Ahmad Fatfat, a prominent Sunni Lebanese lawmaker and a former cabinet minister. “For Hezbollah, furthering Iran’s strategic interest in the Middle East has become more important than Lebanese politics.”  Still, even foes of Hezbollah such as Mr. Fatfat agree that, despite the mounting toll of the Syrian involvement, Hezbollah has retained its support within Lebanon’s Shiite community. Many Lebanese agree that is in part because, by attacking Sunni jihadists in Syria, Hezbollah has by and large prevented the spillover of sectarian violence into Lebanon itself.  “We’re in a situation where we don’t have the luxury to doubt. The war in Syria has become a religious war,” said Riad al-Asaad, a Shiite Lebanese politician, academic and entrepreneur. “Had Hezbollah not been fighting them in Syria, it would have to be fighting them in Lebanon. These guys will sooner or later behead you, will burn you, will kill you. So you better deal with it—and Hezbollah is dealing with it.” With the conflict viewed in such existential terms for Lebanon’s Shiites, Hezbollah can easily sustain the current pace of operations and casualties in Syria without losing the community’s support, its allies say.  Younis Audi, a pro-Hezbollah TV personality whose two cousins died fighting in Syria and a graduate of a Soviet guerrilla warfare academy, said the core of the group’s military strength hasn’t been affected by the war. Its long-range missile batteries are still aimed at Israel, and its special forces and its border-defense units remain intact.  “This can go on for a hundred years. The central nucleus has not been touched, and the force around it is renewable,” Mr. Audi said. “The cost doesn’t matter. What matters is whether you are able to destroy the conspiracy project and win.” But winning against equally dedicated— and more numerous—jihadists in Syria isn’t an easy task. Hezbollah and its Syrian allies this month lost a critical battle in the southwestern part of Aleppo, where the rebels broke through the siege imposed weeks earlier on the rebel-held half of the city.  Mr. Nasrallah this weekend spoke of possible “reconciliation” and “compromises” with Syrian and Iraqi Sunni jihadists. And among some Hezbollah fighters, the talk is more of containment than outright victory.  “As long as we are there, nobody will win,” Ahmad Smaidi, who said he recently fought in Syria, answered when asked what would be the consequences of a Sunni jihadist takeover there.  Retired Lebanese Army Maj. Gen. Hisham Jaber, who comes from the Hezbollah stronghold of Nabatiyeh in southern Lebanon, said he increasingly hears concerns about the way the war is going when he attends fighters’ funerals and other events in his hometown.  “People so far are not protesting or asking the question, ‘Why are we in Syria?’” said Mr. Jaber, who runs a think tank. “But they talk among themselves and wonder: What’s next? Until when will we go and sacrifice?” Yaroslav Trofimov writes a weekly column, Middle East Crossroads, about the region stretching from West to Pakistan. He joined the Journal in 1999 and previously served as Rome, Middle East and Singapore-based Asia correspondent, and as bureau chief in Afghanistan and Pakistan. He is the author of two books, Faith at War (2005) and Siege of Mecca (2007). 7