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Number 11, Fall 2006 -- the Journal of International Security Affairs

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Number 11, Fall 2006 -- the Journal of International Security Affairs Number 11, Fall 2006 21st Century Allies… Efraim Inbar on Israel Olivier Guitta on Europe Peter Brookes on Japan Joshua Eisenman on Australia Anupam Srivastava on India Rob Huebert on Canada Svante Cornell on Eurasia Chuck Downs on South Korea …and Adversaries R. James Woolsey et al. on Iran Robert Rabil on Syria Alexandr Nemets on the Sino-Russian alliance Luis Fleischman on Venezuela Walid Phares on future terrorism Response Nikolas Gvosdev on Russia policy Dispatches More of the same in Mexico? A strategy for avian influenza Preserving Georgia’s political direction Book Reviews Joshua London’s Victory in Tripoli ◊ The Other War by $7.95 US $12.50 CAN 6 3 Stephanie Gutmann ◊ John Yoo’s The Powers of War and Peace ◊ Hamas by Matthew Levitt 0 7 4 4 7 0 5 7 8 8 2 6 www.securityaffairs.org Ilan Berman Editor Tom Neumann Publisher Jim Colbert Associate Editor/Managing Editor Karla Jones Circulation Manager Jennifer Keech Graphic Designer James P. Cetrone Web Development Editorial Board Dr. Stephen Bryen, Armeane Choksi, Adm. Leon “Bud” Edney USN (ret.), Hon. Jack Kemp, Dr. Joshua Muravchik, Maj. Gen. Sidney Shachnow USA (ret.) The Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs (JINSA), Inc., is an independent, non- profit, non-partisan, non-sectarian educational organization established in 1976 to fulfill a two-fold mandate: To educate the American public about the threats and dangers facing our country and our global allies; to explain why a mobile, technologically superior military is vital to America’s security; to provide leadership on issues affecting American national security and foreign policy; to explain to Americans and others the importance of U.S. security cooperation with like-minded democratic partners around the world and to explain the key role Israel plays in the Mediterranean and Middle East as an outpost of liberty, a linchpin of stability and a friend and ally of the United States. The Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs, Inc., incorporated in the District of Colum- bia, is a tax-exempt organization under section 501(c)(3) of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. MANUSCRIPTS SHOULD BE SENT TO: 1779 Mas- ADVERTISING: Please contact the Editor, Ilan sachusetts Ave., NW, Suite 515, Washing- Berman, at ([email protected]) for ton, D.C. 20036. The Editor will consider information on availability and ad rates. all manuscripts received, but will assume REPRINTS AND PERMISSIONS: Write The Jour- no responsibility regarding them and will nal of International Security Affairs, Reader return only materials accompanied by Services, 1779 Massachusetts Ave., NW, appropriate postage. Facsimile submissions Suite 515, Washington, D.C. 20036. Fax: will not be accepted. (202) 667-0601. PRINTED IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. © 2006 Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs. All rights reserved. No part of this magazine may be reproduced, distributed or transmit- ted in any form or by any means, without prior written permission from the publisher. EDITOR’S NOTE: The opinions expressed in The Journal of International Security Affairs (ISSN 1532-4060) are those of the author(s) alone and do not necessarily represent the opinions of JINSA. Number 11, Fall 2006 From the Publisher Tom Neumann 3 Editor’s Corner Ilan Berman 5 21st Century Allies… Israel: An Enduring Union Efraim Inbar 7 Why Israel remains a vital American ally Japan: Coming of Age Peter Brookes 15 The benefits of Tokyo’s changing threat perceptions India: Toward True Partnership Anupam Srivastava 21 The logic behind Indo-American rapprochement Eurasia: Crisis and Opportunity Svante E. Cornell 29 American strategy adrift in the “Post-Soviet Space” Europe: Rethinking the Transatlantic Divide Olivier Guitta 39 Don’t believe the hype. Cooperation with Europe is alive and well. Australia: An Ally Down Under Joshua Eisenman 45 Canberra’s strategic calculus, and Washington’s place in it Canada: Partnership in Flux Rob Huebert 53 New realities confront the North American defense alliance South Korea: Slouching Toward Submission Chuck Downs 61 Seoul searches for an accommodation with Pyongyang, at Washington’s expense … and Adversaries Iran: Confronting the Threat R. James Woolsey et al. 69 Results of a JINSA Roundtable Syria: Buying Time Robert G. Rabil 75 Bashar al-Assad plays the waiting game Russia/China: Mechanics of an Anti-American Alliance Alexandr Nemets 83 Moscow and Beijing’s partnership has a concrete purpose Venezuela: Anatomy of a Dictator Luis Fleischman 89 The next threat for Latin America Future Terrorism: Mutant Jihads Walid Phares 97 Where, and how, the next battles in the War on Terror will be fought Response A Dose of Realism on Russia Nikolas K. Gvosdev 103 When it comes to Russia, idealism is no substitute for real engagement Dispatches MEXICO: Calderón’s Challenge Fredo Arias-King 109 SLOVENIA: Tackling the Next Pandemic I. Podbregar & T. Ivanusa 111 GEORGIA: Back on its Feet Irakli Mchedlishvili 113 Book Reviews Past as Prologue Aaron Mannes 115 Joshua London explores the first American Middle East crisis The Palestinians’ Best Battalion Eric Rozenman 119 Stephanie Gutmann probes the media front in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict Striking a Balance Thomas Karako 123 John Yoo’s ambitious vision of a new constitutional order Debunking the Hamas Myth Glen Feder 126 Matthew Levitt calls a spade a spade From the Publisher As of this writing, the UN Security Council has passed a resolution calling for a “cessation of hostilities” in the war between Hezbollah and Israel. It is an extremely one-sided resolution that addresses the terrorist and the victim as morally equivalent. By the time this issue of The Journal reaches your hands, the world will have turned twelve times over. It changes by the minute. Yet if we were to acknowl- edge the truth about our enemy, things might seem pretty constant. Analysts pathetically verbalize answers and insights that are simultaneously complex and shallow. There is less to analyze if you face up to the fact that the enemy is pure evil and is driven by evil. The Iranians like to call us the “Big Satan,” and Israel the “Little Satan.” In his Paradise Lost, John Milton, the Puritan poet, quotes Satan as saying, “Better to reign in hell, than serve in Heaven.” That is the way Iran views this conflict. After centuries of lagging behind the West, a sense of inferiority and anger has set in. They remember when they were the center of cultural gravity. Iran’s leaders resent not the dominance of America and the West, but its suc- cess. Our success is their definition of American evil. The G-d of Milton was not evil. It was Satan who was evil. Satan did not like the order of things; he wanted to be in charge. That was his failing. And so it is with al-Qaeda and Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Simply put, as with Satan, if you can’t improve upon it, destroy it. This is the crux of the conflict. We can look for complicated explanations, but there is no need. We are engaged in what biblically or mythologically has been called the struggle between light and darkness. Tom Neumann Publisher THE JOURNAL OF INTERNAtiONAL SECURitY AFFAIRS The Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs Translating Ideas into Policy Mission To educate the American public about the threats and dangers facing our country and our global allies; to explain why a mobile, technologically superior military is vital to America’s security; to provide leadership on issues affecting American national security and foreign policy; to explain to Americans and others the importance of U.S. security cooperation with like-minded democratic partners around the world and to explain the key role Israel plays in the Mediterranean and Middle East as an outpost of lib- erty, a linchpin of stability and a friend and ally of the United States. Founded 1976 1779 Massachusetts Ave., NW • Suite 515 • Washington, D.C. 2006 Ph: (202) 667-900 • www.jinsa.org • F: (202) 667-0601 Editor’s Corner The War on Terror, it seems, will be with us for quite some time. The latest indication came shortly before this issue went to press, when British authorities foiled an ambitious terrorist plot to blow up as many as 10 airliners in mid-air. Had it been successfully carried out, that plan would have killed hundreds and caused damage on an unimaginable scale. Credit for thwarting the attacks rests primarily with British authorities, but a number of foreign nations—including the United States and Pakistan—provided valuable assistance in uncovering the plot, and exposing its inner workings. August’s abortive terror attacks underscore an unmistakable fact. Given the diffuse nature of today’s terrorist threat, the United States simply cannot “go it alone”—if it ever could. In today’s world, Washington needs reliable allies capable of complementing and augmenting its efforts on everything from coun- terterrorism to counterproliferation. It is therefore more than a little fitting that this issue of The Journal focuses on identifying exactly who America’s main international partners—and its chief adversaries—will be in the years ahead. Our first section deals with allies. Efraim Inbar, director of Bar-Ilan University’s Begin-Sadat Center for Stategic Studies, outlines the strategic bonds, old and new, underpinning the Middle East’s most durable alliance: the partnership between the United States and Israel. Peter Brookes of the Heritage Founda- tion takes a probing look at Japan’s evolving threat perceptions—and how they are bringing Tokyo closer to Washington. The University of Georgia’s Anupam Srivastava offers an incisive analysis of the principles underpinning the emerg- ing partnership between India and the United States. Svante Cornell of Johns Hopkins University’s Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, meanwhile, provides a comprehensive overview of the challenges and opportunities confronting the U.S.
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