Spring 2019 www.belfercenter.org BLUEPRINTS FOR TACKLING GLOBAL CHALLENGES Two new reports assess, respectively, global nuclear security in 2019 and major challenges Revitalizing Nuclear Security facing NATO—and offer steps to strengthen both. Combating Complacency Strengthening Implementation Bolstering page 4 Cooperation Sustaining Leadership The Future of NATO Reviving American Leadership Restoring European page 5 Defense Strength Competing with China Upholding NATO's Democratic Values

PLUS: Student Impact · Hanoi Summit Reactions · New Members of Congress From the Director

eeing a U.S. aircraft carrier up close is an Here at the Belfer Center, we produce Sunforgettable experience. Movies convey dozens of research papers, publish hundreds some sense of scale. But only aboard a nuclear- of opinion pieces, and sponsor hundreds of powered, Nimitz-class carrier do you understand seminars and other events. We host scores of Staff Spotlight: that this craft—longer than three football fields— fellows, conduct field work around the world, Sharon Wilke is essentially a 4.5-acre floating fortress home and teach thousands of students. That doesn’t to 3,000 American men and women who do just happen on its own. Finance specialists Sharon Wilke’s fingerprints are hard to everything from counter-piracy operations to keep our budgets sharp. Program and opera- miss. You can see her professional touch In humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. tions staff organize stimulating events, some- the politely persistent way she pitches scholarly work to national media, in the diverse range of content in this newsletter, and in her respon- siveness to communications needs across “Our scholars Center programs. do critically As Associate Director for Communications, Sharon has a hand in the team’s outreach strat- important egy and in virtually every piece of public-facing work. But they content the Center produces—from op-eds and television interviews to books and event mate- couldn’t do it rials. Her colleagues have noticed her gracious without a great attitude that drives this work, calling her “indis- pensable” and “relentlessly positive.” team working Sharon, who recently marked 15 years of with them.” service to Harvard School, is also Belfer Center faculty, fellows, and staff, September 2018. known for the strong intern program she runs. Many of her “graduates” have gone on to rewarding careers in journalism and academia. Above deck, it’s common to greet and times more than five a day. Project coordina- “I can’t think of a more dynamic and engag- thank the pilots and officers. In conflict, they tors and faculty assistants keep our research ing place to work,” Sharon said. “The Belfer face the toughest choices and the highest stakes. efforts humming. Our communications team Center attracts brilliant, insightful thinkers and In my tours of various vessels as Secretary of publishes and disseminates a wide range of creative doers who challenge each other reg- Defense, I made it a point also to engage ser- research and marketing materials, including ularly as they work to find solutions to some of vicemembers who worked below deck. The this newsletter. And so on. our most serious problems.” phrase “it takes a village” is literally true for It’s fitting to profile our scholars, and we Outside the Belfer Center, you might find operating at sea. Technicians, mechanics, engi- will continue doing so. But beginning with this Sharon hiking conservation trails, kayaking in neers; cooks, bakers, dishwashers; weapons issue, we’d also like to call attention to the many area waters, shopping at the Arlington Farmer’s and navigational specialists; and myriad other staff who make the Center run. The adjacent Market, and working for local diversity and roles—all vital to a carrier’s mission. article about Sharon Wilke is a great way to national climate change efforts. With her twin As at sea, so on campus. Let’s be honest: start. Among a thousand other things she does, sons, she is currently planning a family trip Harvard isn’t known for its modesty. And it’s Sharon edits the Center’s newsletter; in typi- to New Orleans where they’ll see firsthand true: we are immensely proud of the world- cal fashion, she resisted having the spotlight the post-Katrina recovery of the Broadmoor class scholars who advance knowledge and turned on her. community with which the Belfer Center was training at the intersection of science, tech- On behalf of the Center’s leadership team, instrumental. nology, and global affairs. They do critically we thank Sharon and all members of our “Sharon is the ultimate team player,” said important work. But they couldn’t do it with- Center’s productive and valued team. Center Co-Director Eric Rosenbach. “Her intel- out a great team working with them. lectual curiosity and passion for science, tech- nology, and global affairs makes us all better.”

2 Newsletter | Spring 2019 Experts Offer Training, Mentorship to New Members of Congress n early December, several of the Belfer Emerging Technologies and Public Good,” previously DoD’s “Cyber Czar,” joined D3P ICenter faculty and senior staff took part while Juliette Kayyem, Director of the Center’s Senior Fellow and former Presidential Campaign in the Institute of Politics’ annual Bipartisan Homeland Security Project and former Assistant Manager Robby Mook in discussing efforts Program for Newly Elected Members of Secretary of Intergovernmental Affairs with the to increase election security. Former UN Congress. In collaboration with the American Department of Homeland Security, and Robert Ambassador Samantha Power, the Anna Lindh Enterprise Institute, the Center for Strategic and Stavins, Director of the Harvard Project on Professor of the Practice of Global Leadership and International Studies, and the Congressional Climate Agreements, participated in a panel Public Policy, and Stephen Walt, the Robert and Institute, the program brought together more on “Managing Catastrophes and Disaster Relief: Renée Professor of International Affairs, engaged than 60 new members for three days of briefings C on g re s s’ R o l e .” with members in a lively discussion of “America’s and discussions with Harvard and other experts In a session on “America vs. Hackers: Role in the World,” while Professor of the Practice about issues important to policymakers. Preventing and Responding to Cyber and of Economic Policy Jason Furman, former Belfer Center Director and former Information Attacks,” Center Co-Director Eric Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, Secretary of Defense (DoD) Ash Carter Rosenbach, who heads the Center’s Defending focused in his panel on “Continuing Economic spoke about “Technology and Public Purpose: Digital Democracy Project (D3P) and was Growth: Policies, Challenges, and Politics.” STEWART

MARTHA

Samantha Power (right) greets newly elected Representative , Ash Carter greets Representative Dan Crenshaw, who represents Texas’s 2nd who represents ’s 7th Congressional District. Congressional District.

Juliette Kayyem offers tips on Congress’ role in managing catastrophes and Eric Rosenbach chats with Representative Elissa Slotkin, who represents Mich- disaster relief during a panel discussion with new members. igan’s 8th Congressional District.

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 3 BLUEPRINTS FOR TACKLING 2019 CHALLENGES

A Vision for Nuclear Security

by Jacob Carozza

nternational efforts to prevent nuclear the report states. “But important weaknesses Iterrorism have entered a new era of uncer- remain, and the evolution of the threat remains “The danger that tainty. Terrorist threats are evolving, and it is unpredictable. The danger that terrorists could increasingly unclear if nuclear security protec- get and use a nuclear bomb, or sabotage a terrorists could get and tions against them will keep pace. If improve- major nuclear facility, or spread dangerous use a nuclear bomb, ments to nuclear security do not adapt to these radioactive material in a ‘dirty bomb,’ remains threats, the risk of nuclear terrorism will grow. too high.” or sabotage a major The authors—Managing nuclear facility, or spread the Atom’s Professor of Practice Matthew Bunn, Senior Research dangerous radioactive Associate Nickolas Roth, and material in a ‘dirty bomb,’ Senior Fellow William H. SEAN KELLY / HUDSON INST. / HUDSON SEAN KELLY remains too high.” Tobey—presented their findings and recommendations at a Hudson Institute event in Washington, D.C. from requiring protections against cyber on January 29. attacks to launching programs to strengthen Writing in The Hill, the security culture in nuclear organizations. But authors urged 2020 presidential momentum is slowing, the report notes. Nickolas Roth joined co-authors William Tobey (left) and Matthew candidates to develop a plan for “High-level political attention to nuclear Bunn at a Hudson Institute event to launch their report, Revitalizing Nuclear Security in an Era of Uncertainty on January 29. reducing nuclear terrorism risks security and overcoming obstacles has largely and offered a reminder that the faded, international mechanisms for fostering Revitalizing Nuclear Security in an Era of issue should transcend partisan politics. “Every nuclear security action and cooperation have not Uncertainty, a new report from the Project on president for more than two decades, including managed to fill the gap created by the absence of Managing the Atom (MTA), highlights this Donald Trump, has described nuclear terrorism nuclear security summits, and political disputes alarming reality and outlines steps the global as one of the gravest dangers the continue to impede efforts to sustain or expand community must take to improve security for faces,” they write. cooperation in crucial areas,” the report says. weapons-usable nuclear material. The report is the latest in a long-standing The authors recommend action to regain the “Nuclear security around the world has series on nuclear security from MTA, and the momentum in four key areas: combating com- improved dramatically over the last three first since the 2016 Nuclear Security Summit. placency; strengthening nuclear security imple- decades—which demonstrates that with In that time, countries have continued to take mentation on the ground; bolstering frameworks focused leadership, major progress is possible,” measurable steps to improve nuclear security, for international nuclear security cooperation; and sustaining nuclear security leadership.

PROJECT ON MANAGING THE ATOM MTA has released two policy briefs sum- Revitalizing Nuclear Security READ THE FULL REPORT: in an Era of marizing major aspects of the report, and more Uncertainty Matthew Bunn will be released in the coming months. Bunn, Nickolas Roth “Revitalizing Nuclear Security in an William H. Tobey Era of Uncertainty” Roth, and Tobey also continue to discuss the report’s findings and recommendations with

REPORT JANUARY 2019 belfercenter.org/NuclearSecurity2019 government officials.

4 Newsletter | Spring 2019 BLUEPRINTS FOR TACKLING 2019 CHALLENGES

NATO in Crisis

by Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook

s the 70th anniversary of the North Burns addressed the report’s findings in con- Restoring U.S. leadership within NATO AAtlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) versation with former U.S. Vice President Joe is paramount, Burns and Lute argue in the approaches in early April, the world’s oldest Biden in a mainstage event. The authors also dis- report, recommending that Congress act to and most successful military alliance of dem- cussed their conclusions with the NATO Deputy protect NATO by passing legislation this year, ocratic nations faces serious and complex chal- Secretary General Rose Gottemoeller in a Town requiring Congressional approval should lenges to its purpose, effectiveness, and unity. Hall discussion at the Security Conference. President Trump attempt to alter U.S. treaty “NATO is facing one “The single greatest of its most difficult crises in seven decades,” said threat [to NATO] is the Burns, Harvard Kennedy absence of strong, School professor and Faculty Chair of the principled American Project on Europe and the presidential leadership.” Transatlantic Relationship. “While NATO has strate- —Nicholas Burns gic challenges to meet, the single greatest threat is the Former U.S. Ambassadors to NATO Nicholas Burns (left) and Douglas Lute In a Belfer Center report released at the absence of strong, princi- speak about their recent report, NATO at Seventy: An Alliance in Crisis during a Munich Security Conference in February, pled American presidential Project on Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship event on February 26. based on six months of extensive discussions leadership for the first time with European and North American leaders, in its history.” commitments to NATO allies or seek to take former U.S. Ambassadors to NATO Douglas Biden agreed the Trump administration the U.S. out of the Alliance altogether. They also Lute and Nicholas Burns underscored 10 major had needlessly weakened U.S. ties to Europe. offer recommendations on how NATO should challenges and offered recommendations to bol- Lute, now a non-resident Senior Fellow address low European defense spending and ster this critically important alliance. Published with the Europe Project, said, “Our goal with anti-democratic governments within the orga- days after it was learned that President Trump this report is to prompt attention to tough, nization, which are a “cancer” on the Alliance, had considered unilaterally withdrawing from strategic challenges and deep introspection Burns and Lute said. NATO, the report was widely discussed among among the allies. NATO should move revital- They make practical recommendations on European and U.S. Congressional leadership ized and retooled into the decades ahead, and how to contain Russian aggression in Ukraine gathered in Munich and found broad resonance again demonstrate its ability to adapt.” and beyond, and how to emerge from the war in the international press. At the conference, in . They also highlight NATO’s strengths in competing with the expanding

PROJECT ON EUROPE AND THE TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONSHIP international agenda of China. While they rec- NATO at Seventy READ THE FULL REPORT: ommend keeping the door open to new NATO An Alliance in Crisis Ambassador Douglas Lute Ambassador Nicholas Burns members, Burns and Lute emphasize the neces- “NATO at 70: An Alliance in Crisis” sity of internal reforms, including a stronger role belfercenter.org/nato70 for the NATO Secretary General. REPORT •••••••••••••

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 5 Global Relations HAMID FOROUTAN / ISNA / AP / / ISNA HAMID FOROUTAN

In this Jan. 15, 2011 photo, Iran’s heavy water nuclear facility is backdropped by mountains near the central city of Arak, Iran. Iran’s Secret Nuclear Documents by William Tobey and Matthew Bunn n mid-January, a team of scholars from the A forthcoming report Chase. The group represented diverse views IBelfer Center’s Intelligence and Managing regarding Iran’s nuclear program and the Iran the Atom Projects traveled to Tel Aviv, Israel will explore both the nuclear deal, but reached unanimous conclu- to examine samples of, and receive briefings sions on the archive. on, an archive of documents related to Iran’s conclusions that can The documents that the Belfer group were nuclear weapons program. The large cache be drawn and the shown confirm that senior Iranian officials had includes some 55,000 pages of documents decided in the late 1990s to actually manufacture and a further 55,000 files on CDs that include mysteries that remain. nuclear weapons and carry out an underground photos and videos. A clandestine Israeli intel- nuclear test; that Iran’s program to do so made ligence operation spirited the materials out of the key revelations and documents in the more technical progress than had previously Iran in early 2018. Iran nuclear archive. Subsequently, the entire been understood; and that Iran had help from Although they represent only 20 percent of collection was shared with the International quite a number of foreign scientists, and access the documents collected and secretly stored by Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United to several foreign nuclear weapon designs. The Iranian officials in a warehouse outside of Tehran, States, and other relevant governments, while archive also leaves open a wide range of ques- these materials permit a detailed examination additional governments and media were tions, including what plan, if any, Iran has had of Iran’s nuclear activities in the period from briefed on the contents. Some materials with respect to nuclear weapons in the nearly 1999 to 2003, when Iranian authorities issued a were made available to researchers and ana- 16 years since Iran’s government ordered a halt “halt order” that curtailed the full-blown nuclear lysts, including Belfer Center scholars Rolf to most of the program in late 2003. weapons program known as Project AMAD. Mowatt-Larssen, Aaron Arnold, Matthew The Belfer team’s forthcoming report will In April 2018, Israeli Prime Minister Bunn, Steven Miller, William Tobey, and explore both the conclusions that can be drawn Benjamin Netanyahu made public many of Intelligence Project Coordinator Caitlin and the mysteries that remain.

Resetting Relations with Ten years ago, then Secretary of State Hillary According to these experts, the Kremlin’s after the Ukraine crisis; and relegating relations Clinton followed up on Vice President Joe Biden’s poor choices included: “unacceptable aggression with Moscow to a “secondary” status on the U.S. proposed “reset” in relations with Moscow by against Ukraine;” “repressive measures” against foreign policy agenda. giving her Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, a its own citizens; and giving asylum to Edward symbolic red button marked “RESET.” However, Snowden, which led then President Obama to » Read Russia Matters’ full article on resetting within a few years, the “reset” had already failed. cancel a summit with his Russian counterpart, U.S.-Russia relations with more insights from Russia Matters, a Belfer Center project sup- . Graham Allison, Fiona Hill, Thomas Graham, ported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York, The list of counterproductive Washington Nikolas Gvosdev, , Andrew recently compiled insights from 11 Russia experts actions included: insisting that Russia accept U.S. Kuchins, Robert Legvold, , Michael on the various reasons that the reset didn’t last primacy and the rules of a U.S.-led world order; McFaul, Angela Stent, and Dmitri Trenin at and what might be done now to improve relations treating Russia as a foe and “demonizing” Putin; RussiaMatters.org between the U.S. and Russia. “cutting off all communication and cooperation”

6 Newsletter | Spring 2019 Impacts of the Hanoi Summit

Following the breakdown of February’s Trump-Kim Summit in Hanoi, Belfer Center experts discussed the impact of the shortened summit. EVAN VUCCI VUCCI / AP EVAN “Because of how the Hanoi Summit ended, Kim Jong Un lost face,” said John Park, Director of the Belfer Center’s Korea Project. “Rather than the expected launch of a process in which the work- ing groups were to begin complex negotiations, we’re currently seeing advanced preparations of a different kind of launch—this one in North Korea at the Sohae satellite launch facility.” The key question now, Park said, is how Kim will regain face, “a paramount task for a leader who is only 35 years of age. The upside of his youth may be a calculation that he can President Donald Trump meets North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Thursday, February resume testing, restore face, and then wait out the Trump Administration.” 28, 2019 in Hanoi, Vietnam.

Excerpts from additional insights and reactions to the Hanoi Summit:

Graham Allison Nicholas Burns Martin Malin Susan Rice Wendy Sherman Douglas Dillon Professor Faculty Chair, Future Executive Director, Senior Fellow, Senior Fellow, Belfer of Government, HKS of Diplomacy Project; Project on Managing Belfer Center Center; Director, “Putting the Professor of the the Atom “[W]hen the lead- Center for Public summit into a Practice of Diplomacy “The question is ers fail, under the Leadership, HKS broader context, I am and International Relations whether the working level spotlight, to reach a deal, “[If] the meeting had reminded of a Chinese “Trump should end the diplomats will be empow- it’s harder to put Humpty been well prepared, it’s likely maxim that says ‘a journey buddy diplomacy with Kim ered to meet and move the Dumpty back together. If the president wouldn’t have of a thousand miles begins and empower his first-rate process forward. The focus there remains a moratorium found himself in the position with a single step.’ Although negotiator Steve Biegun. should…be on what is still on testing of nuclear weapons of a dramatic flameout….Real the road to denucleariza- They should refashion the achievable: a continuing as well as ballistic missiles, leadership requires a seri- tion is long, my bet is that coalition against Kim with de-escalation of tension, that’s certainly better than ous, disciplined negotiation history will remember the South Korea, Japan and and an expanding bilateral the alternative. But people involving the full diplomatic Hanoi Summit as a signif- China, return to sanctions diplomatic process aimed shouldn’t confuse a morato- force of the U.S. and our icant step along the way.” pressure, and renew mili- at peace, denuclearization, rium on testing with a freeze allies, an approach necessary (The National Interest, tary exercises with South and economic development of their nuclear program.” to even imagine getting back March 1, 2019) Korea.” on the Korean peninsula.” (NPR Morning Edition, on a pathway.” February 28, 2019)

Matthew Bunn Ash Carter Joseph S. Nye Gary Samore William Tobey Co-Principal Investigator, Director, Belfer Center Member of the Board, Senior Fellow, Belfer Senior Fellow, Project on Project on Managing “The only way to Belfer Center; Center Korea Project; Managing the Atom the Atom; Professor succeed is coer- Associate, Project on "In some ways, of Practice, HKS cive diplomacy…. Distinguished Managing the Atom this was a better “North Korea is Kim Jong Un will Service Professor “The failure of outcome than the not likely to give up all its have to rethink what he’s “Give credit where credit is the Hanoi Summit may Singapore Summit. President nuclear weapons any time willing to do to take con- due. Trump was played by be a blessing in disguise. Trump reversed the North’s soon. But it might very well crete steps forward. In Kim at their first meeting in For both President Trump perception that it is better be willing to reduce nuclear return we should gradually Singapore, but avoided that and Chairman Kim, it is a to deal with him because dangers step-by-step in take concrete steps in his fate in Hanoi. Now negoti- teachable moment that he offers unilateral conces- return for parallel steps direction—but only gradu- ations should continue at personal chemistry cannot sions, e.g. the cessation of to lift sanctions, improve ally and only reciprocally.” lower levels and properly substitute for preparation U.S.-ROK military exercises, relations, and provide (CNBC, February 28, 2019) prepare the ground.” in dealing with the com- and because they can then benefits.” plex and difficult issues of avoid discussion of thorny denuclearization.” verification details.”

Read full comments at belfercenter.org/HanoiSummit

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 7 Q&A: Erica Chenoweth Erica Chenoweth is Professor of Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School and a Susan S. and Kenneth L. Wallach Professor at the Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study. Her research focuses on political violence and its alternatives. Foreign Policy magazine ranked her among the Top 100 Global Thinkers of 2013. Her forthcoming book, Civil Resistance: What Everyone Needs to Know explores what civil resistance is, how it works, why it sometimes fails, how violence and repression affect it, and the long-term impacts of such resistance.

Your research has shown that nonvio- Q lent mass campaigns can be twice as effective as their armed equivalents.

But are activists themselves increas- / HDS KREUGER LARA ingly turning to civil resistance?

Chenoweth: It seems that way. According to the data that my research team is collecting, we live in the decade in which there have been more mass nonviolent movements around the world than at any time in recorded history.

“There is a lot to learn from historical cases about the ways Erica Chenoweth speaks on nonviolent, civil resistance at Harvard Divinity School. that terrorism affects political life (and Social media was once thought to be a great What else do you like to do outside work amplifier of nonviolent change movements. that might surprise readers? vice versa).” Now it’s seen as aiding authoritarian control. Taking the long view, how does disruptive media I am not sure there is anything surprising, but my What’s a common misconception HKS stu- technology tend to influence civil resistance? top activities outside of work are reading, hiking, dents have about terrorism? volunteering, and spending time with friends and Well, Gandhi organized the Salt March in 1930 by family. I also have pretty eclectic musical tastes. In A lot of people—not just HKS students—think walking town to town and gathering thousands of the past year, I’ve seen Nas at Red Rocks, Madame that terrorism was essentially “invented” on marchers over 240 miles. So clearly civil resistance Butterfly at the Santa Fe Opera, and lots in between. 9/11. But terrorism is a tactic whose use predates Facebook. There was certainly a time extends back centuries, and there is a lot to when social media seemed to benefit organizers What are you seeing and hearing from this learn from historical cases about the ways that and activists in terms of coordination and com- generation of students at HKS that gives terrorism affects political life (and vice versa). munication. But just like any communications you hope for the world? technology, social media is a tool that anyone can It’s Sept. 12, 2001 and President Bush is use—including governments wanting to surveil I find HKS students incredibly motivated, smart, asking for your advice on how to fight back or control people power movements. In general, and curious. Our students have really unique life against terrorism. What do you tell him? I think it’s useful to see disruptive media technol- experiences and impressive backgrounds. But ogies as characteristics rather than causes of civil most of all, I appreciate the drive to better under- Proportionality is everything. The strategy of resistance over time. stand how to solve big problems and make the terrorism is to provoke an overreaction and world a better place. It’s a total joy to be part of the polarize a population at an exceedingly low You love fly-fishing. Which rivers are on your HKS community with such amazing students. cost. Resisting the urge to respond with over- bucket list? whelming strength and resources can be diffi- Is there a current nonviolent resistance cult politically, but a counterterrorism strategy The River Dee in Scotland, and any number movement the media should be watching? that focuses on proportional responses will be of salmon fisheries in the Pacific Northwest. effective and much less costly. Yes—everyone should be watching Algeria and Sudan.

8 Newsletter | Spring 2019 Q&A: Zoe Marks Zoe Marks is a Lecturer in Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School. Her research and teaching interests focus on the intersections of conflict and political violence; race, gender and inequality; peacebuilding; and African politics. Her current book project examines the internal dynamics of rebellion in Sierra Leone to understand how and why rebel groups can sustain a viable threat to the state without widespread support.

What led you to focus your academic by asking students to seek out missing voices, What job did you want to have when you Q work on African Studies? and I invite guest speakers who have been his- were 10? torically excluded or underrepresented at the Marks: I’ve always been committed to racial Kennedy School. Finally, I am totally fortunate I think by 10 I wanted to be president and a justice and to understanding systems of violence to have amazing women colleagues who I learn basketball star and maybe a lawyer (my back-up and inequality. As I got older, I became increas- from and with whom I collaborate. plan); but when I was younger, at 7, I was much ingly interested in studying these issues on a global more focused—I founded an Earth Club with scale. Repairing my lack of knowledge about my sister and best friend. We had only two African politics was an obvious starting point. “Instead of meetings, but we had a flag. predicting why What’s a leading misconception Westerners Any stories you can share from your field (even those at HKS) have about Africa? conflicts break out, work in Sierra Leone? I have studied how There’s this pervasive idea that Africa is on the I think my favorite is the string of stories I col- “margins” or that the continent has been left wars persist and lected while learning to cook Sierra Leonean behind in the march of history. But African why rebellion can be food with the former wives of the rebel leader, countries have long been central to the formation Foday Sankoh. A lot of my work has focused on of the contemporary nation-state system and so resilient.” the essential roles women play in making war the global capitalist order. Now that globaliza- and rebellion possible. Cooking with women tion is happening at an exponential rate, African What are some of the most encouraging yet from the Revolutionary United Front was an states foreshadow the challenges the rest of the under-reported African trends you’re seeing? incredible privilege, because in spending that world will soon be facing. time together they not only told me about their Right now, the fastest-growing economies in lives during the war, they taught me heaps about What do you wish more people understood Africa are not exporting oil and minerals, but their present-day experiences, and educated me about conflict and political violence? rather are building diversified agrarian-led in local cuisine and cooking techniques. economies with high levels of Once war begins, it fundamentally changes the intentional value-chain invest- calculus and constraints of all actors. Instead ment. Another exciting trend is of predicting why conflicts break out, I have the growing political voice of studied how wars persist and why rebellion can young people through digital MARKS ZOE COURTESY be so resilient. Survival is a powerful motiva- communication and through tor. Armed groups keep fighting if there are no mass mobilization. Finally, exit pathways. That’s why finding ways to make African women have always “losing” today look better than losing tomor- been hugely inspiring because row is so important for peacebuilding efforts. of their ability to advocate powerfully for themselves. What are you telling HKS students about their Ethiopian Prime Minister role in bringing about fuller ? Abiy Ahmed’s gender-balanced cabinet is a powerful signal for This is such an important issue. Three concrete people across the continent that things spring to mind: First, I share my expe- women’s inclusion strengthens riences as candidly as possible with women democracy and legitimacy. students in particular. Second, intersectional feminism teaches us that gender equality is only secure if everyone has equality. I try to make room for these conversations in my classroom Zoe Marks with her translator Patricia Turay and her family in Makeni, Sierra Leone, where Marks was researching impacts of civil war and its aftermath.

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 9 Belfer Center in Action MARTHA STEWART MARTHA

Distancing Dilemma: “The Future of BREXIT” was the focus of a JFK, Jr. Forum AI Accountability: Joi Ito, Director of the MIT Media Lab, discusses “Responsible moderated by the Europe Project’s Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook (left). Panelists AI: A Guide to the Future” during a Technology and Public Purpose Project were (from left) Harriet Cross, British Consul General to New England, Ed Balls, (TAPP) event. TAPP works to ensure that emerging technologies are developed former UK Shadow Chancellor, and Amanda Sloat, Europe Project Fellow. and managed in ways to serve the public good.

Data and Truth: Jill Lepore, the David Woods Kemper ‘41 Professor of American African Impact: Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield, former Assistant History at Harvard University, presents her thoughts on “How Data Killed Facts” Secretary of State for African Affairs, discusses at a Future of Diplomacy Project at a Belfer Center Board Lunch. She is the author of These Truths: A History of event how Africa’s future will impact all of us and why it must be a priority for the United States. U.S. policymakers. TOM FITZSIMMONS TOM

Conversation with Malala: Nobel Laureate Malala Yousafzai speaks about her Congressional Challenges: Congressman Joe Kennedy III (Massachusetts) experiences and her goals in a conversation with HKS Professor and former speaks about the intersection between domestic and foreign policy in a Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power during a JFK Jr. Forum honoring conversation during a Future of Diplomacy Project seminar at Harvard Kennedy Yousafzai as the Kennedy School’s 2018 Gleitsman Activist Award recipient. School for students, faculty, and fellows.

10 Newsletter | Spring 2019 MARTHA STEWART MARTHA

Critical Connections: Federica Mogherini, High Representative of the European Robotland: Harvard Berkman Center’s Mary L. Gray (center) makes a point during Union for Foreign Affairs, discusses the challenges and opportunities that a JFK Jr. Forum on “The Future of Labor Policy and Work in an Artificial Intelligence exist for the future of the European Union during a Project on Europe and the World.” The event was moderated by digital HKS Director David Eaves (left) and in- Transatlantic Relationship Project hosted by Professor Nicholas Burns. cluded Brandeis Heller School’s David Weil and HKS’s Jason Furman (not pictured).

Climate Leadership: Fran Ulmer (standing), former Chair of the U.S. Arctic Research Digital Africa: Nanjala Nyabola, author of Digital Democracy, Analogue Politics, Commission, and longtime Arctic journalist Elizabeth Arnold, present a case study speaks on “Digital Democracy in Africa” during a Defending Digital Democracy titled “Can Women Tip the Balance for Climate Action?” at an Arctic Initiative semi- (D3P) seminar at the Belfer Center. Nyabola, a writer and political analyst, dis- nar for students, fellows, and faculty. Ulmer is a former Lt. Governor of Alaska. cussed the impact of the Internet on Kenyan politics. JASON CHAPMAN JASON

Commanding Presence: Gen. Joseph Votel, Commander of United States Combating Climate Change: Robert Stavins (center), Director of the Harvard Central Command, shares his views on the role of the U.S. military with students Project on Climate Agreements, speaks during a panel discussion titled “Elaborat- and fellows during a visit to the Center hosted by the National Security Fellows ing and Implementing Article 6 of the ,” during a Harvard Project Program. He also took part in a brainstorming session with faculty. official side event at the COP24 Climate Conference in Poland in December.

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 11 Featured Fellows

Water-Energy Nexus Middle East Initiative Masahiko Haraguchi Lihi Ben Shitrit The Borders of Science, Society, Preventing Self-Identity from and Environment Interfering with Research

by Christian Gibbons by Hannah Ebanks

hat makes a person interested in the relationship between science, ihi Ben Shitrit was conducting ethnographic research in Hebron, Wsociety, and the environment? For Masahiko Haraguchi, it was the LPalestine when she found herself being photographed by tourists— paradox of sustainable development. While working with a timber com- not because she looked out of place, but because she blended in with pany in Thailand, where the government suddenly outlawed deforestation, the Jewish settlers she was interviewing. She wondered if she would he first became aware that sustainability can have negative consequences, be identified as “a militant settler in Hebron.” like job losses, especially in developing countries. Born and raised in Israel, Ben Shitrit The challenge is His interest in this problem led him to study climate policy as a describes “identity” experiences like this as “to understand World Bank Graduate Scholar—and eventually to a job with the World “powerful and good” because they compelled Bank itself. While there, Haraguchi designed programs that would help her to ensure that her own beliefs not interfere women who cities adapt to climate change. His understanding of environmental with her research. During two years of field- are my political adaptation deepened even further as a doctoral student at Columbia work in Israel and the West Bank, she focused opponents.” University, where he conducted research and fieldwork on disaster risk on the Jewish settler movement, the ultra-Or- management and catastrophe recovery. thodox Shas, the Islamic Movement in Israel, and the Palestinian Hamas. As a postdoctoral research fellow at the Belfer Center, Haraguchi Her resulting book was Righteous Transgressions: Women’s Activism on studies how waste can be converted into usable energy and nutrients. the Israeli and Palestinian Religious Right. Haraguchi believes his experiences have helped him become a better “Women are doing 60 to 70 percent of the work” in their respec- global citizen, both professionally and personally. “To be a global citizen, tive conservative movements, from protesting to occupying leadership one of the important skills is to be able to cross borders,” he says. “And positions, Ben Shitrit says. The label she uses to describe this behavior that doesn’t just mean geographical is “frames of exception” where it is considered acceptable for women borders, but borders between cultures “To be a global citizen, to step out of their traditional roles because of the “exceptional cir- and ways of thinking.” one of the important cumstances” of the time. Haraguchi experienced the impor- skills is to be able to A challenge for Ben Shitrit has been preventing her self-identity tance of seeking out various views about cross borders.” as a feminist scholar from interfering with her research on women issues while participating in an interna- who are activists in movements that promote highly conservative and tional fellowship program where he and others made recommendations on patriarchal gender ideologies. the governance of geoengineering. He doesn’t think any part of society should In order to be more receptive to what the women are saying, move forward on such vital decisions without first dialoguing with others. she developed a method called “acting as if.” The challenge, she says, For critical issues like this, he says, “it’s really important to have consensus is “to be able to listen, to be able to hear, to be able to maybe even among multiple stakeholders.” understand women who are, in fact, my political opponents.” The Haraguchi also credits his time in the U.S. with making him a better goal of her research is to highlight these under-recognized women by global citizen. “One of the best ways to get this kind of mindset is to become discovering how they contribute to a movement’s success. a minority,” he explains. “For example, I’m from Japan, and in Japan, I’m part As a Middle East Initiative Research Fellow at the Belfer Center, of a majority.” But his first nine months here—in Arkansas, where he was a Ben Shitrit is currently researching the relationships among gender, minority—convinced him to return to the U.S. for study. “And I really like religion, and sacred spaces like Temple Mount/Al-Haram al-Sharif Southern culture,” he laughs. “People are so friendly.” and the Western Wall in Jerusalem.

12 Newsletter | Spring 2019 Preparing Students for Impact

n the fall, Harvard Kennedy School students Iand Belfer student fellows Bo Julie Crowley and Raina Davis represented the Belfer Center’s Defending Digital Democracy Project at a London conference on disinformation. Inspired, they joined with Casey Corcoran, another Belfer International and Global Affairs Student Fellow, and submitted a proposal to the Center to do a study of disinformation in Taiwan and South Korea, both of which have a long legacy of disinformation. With Center sup- Harvard Kennedy School students and staff listen to Cassandra Favart, Project Coordinator for the Geopolitics of Energy Project, speak at a student event hosted by the Belfer Center. port, they spent January interviewing Taiwanese and South Korean officials and are completing Students working with the Defending The Center’s newest initiative is Belfer a report to be published this spring. Digital Democracy Project (D3P) interface Policy Chats, a series of gatherings that enable directly with state and local election leaders, students to join Center research fellows in This academic year, most recently at a conference hosted by D3P chats about issues at the forefront of global with over 50 election officials and government policy. The aim is to provide a forum to engage the Center greatly leaders discussing takeaways from the 2018 informally on a range of critical topics. A midterms. In addition, a team of current D3P recent chat included Middle East Initiative/ expanded opportunities students and alumni hosted a tabletop exercise Cyber Project fellow James Shires, digital HKS for students. (TTX) this fall at the RSA Conference in San Associate Director Vanessa Rhinesmith, and Francisco for cybersecurity professionals. Center Executive Director Aditi Kumar in a Encouraging student research initiatives is The Center’s Middle East Initiative (MEI) discussion titled “Can we write Human Rights one of many ways the Belfer Center helps pre- provides opportunities throughout the year for into the Internet?” pare the next generation of leaders in science students to deeply engage with pressing policy The Center supports the Women in Defense, and international affairs, an essential component issues in the MENA region and shape their future Diplomacy and Development (W3D) student of the Belfer Center’s mission. Central to those policy careers. This past January term, MEI group in events like their new series The Future (of future leaders are Kennedy School students as awarded funding to seven students for internships Foreign Affairs) is Female and the Female Faculty well as pre-and post-doctoral research fellows. or research related to their academic focus on the Lunch Series. Among recent guests and speakers: A number of Center programs and proj- region. These students will produce policy briefs Sen. Claire McCaskill, former Democratic U.S. ects provide research opportunities for stu- and recommendations for leading institutions, Senator (Missouri), and Meghan O’Sullivan, dents both in the U.S. and abroad. This fall, for contributing to a growing body of research that Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of example, students traveled with Arctic Initiative informs public policy in the region. In addition, International Affairs at the Kennedy School. staff and faculty to Iceland to participate in the MEI supported two for-credit field study courses The Center also hosts For the Common Arctic Circle Assembly. These Arctic Innovators and a policy field visit, sending a total of 63 stu- Defense, a weekly speaker series, and co-hosts proposed new ideas for tackling critical climate dents and fellows to the Middle East in January. various activities with The Future Society and issues faced by Arctic nations. (See more on page 16.) the Black Student Union.

Other Opportunities for Students

Belfer IGA Student Fellows: Each year, 10-15 Belfer International Funding Support: The Center encourages proposals from and Global Affairs student fellows are selected from among a students and student organizations for research, publications, number of HKS applicants. These student fellows receive research and events related to the Center’s core interests. Browse our new page on funding and are paired with a Center program or project where student resources at they observe and participate in policy research and work directly Research and Internships: A full list of programs and projects with leading faculty and researchers. that offer internships and research opportunities is available at belfercenter.org/ belfercenter.org/students. students Career Talks: Several times each semester, the Belfer Center invites students and fellows to meet informally with visiting current or former government and other officials to discuss career questions.

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 13 Hot off the Presses

Economics of the How We Win: Double Jeopardy: India and Nuclear Asia: How Cutting-Edge Entrepreneurs, Environment: Selected Political Visionaries, Enlightened Combating Nuclear Forces, Doctrine, and Readings, 7th Edition Business Leaders, and Social Media Terror and Climate Danger Mavens Can Defeat the Extremist Threat Change By Robert N. Stavins, A.J. Meyer By Yogesh Joshi and Frank Professor of Energy & Economic By Daniel Poneman, Senior O’Donnell, former Stanton Nuclear Development, HKS By Farah Pandith, Non-Resident Security Junior Faculty Fellow, Senior Fellow, Future of Diploma- Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs International Security Program/ Edward Elgar Publishing, Inc. cy Project Project on Managing the Atom 2019 Belfer Center Studies in HarperCollins Press March 2019 International Security MIT Press September 2018 Forthcoming June 2019

Alan Brinkley: Engineering a Better Unrivaled: Why America Why Alliances Fail: Is- A Life in History Future: Will Remain the World’s lamist and Leftist Coali- Interplay between Engineering, Social Sole Superpower tions in North Africa Edited by David Greenberg; Sciences, and Innovation Moshik Temkin, Associate Edited by Eswaran Subrahmanian; By Michael Beckley, Associate, By Matt Buehler, former Professor of History and Public Tolu Odumosu, Associate, International Security Program Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Policy, HKS; and Mason B. Science, Technology, and Public Middle East Initiative Williams Cornell Studies in Security Affairs Policy Program (STPP); Jeff Y. Cornell University Press Syracuse University Press Columbia University Press Tsao, Research Fellow, STPP September 2018 November 2018 January 2019 Springer Nature 2018

Compiled by Susan Lynch, ISP/STPP

14 Newsletter | Spring 2019 Newsmakers Vol. 43 No. 3 Winter 2018/19

India’s Counterforce Temptations: Strategic Halla Hrund Logadóttir, Co-Director of the Dilemmas, Doctrine, and Capabilities Center’s Arctic Initiative, has been named Christopher Clary and Vipin Narang one of the top 29 Young Global Leaders in Since 2003, India has been building its nuclear arsenal North America by the World Economic Forum. beyond what is necessary for a purely retaliatory or Membership in this class of young leaders minimum deterrence capability. India’s actions could lead to a regional arms race or even the use of nuclear will include five years of activities aimed at weapons in a war with Pakistan. creating “transformative experiences for next-generation leaders that enhance their The Demographic Transition Theory of War: skills, broaden their world view, and lead to Why Young Societies Are Conflict Prone and Old groundbreaking initiatives.” With this Honor, Societies Are the Most Peaceful Logadóttir hopes to increase attention to Deborah Jordan Brooks, Stephen G. Brooks, Brian D. Greenhill, and Mark L. Haas Arctic issues and initiatives. Many states with young populations are growing old fast. If states with older populations engage in violent conflict less frequently than states with large numbers Former United Nations Ambassador Samantha Power, Anna Lindh Professor of the Practice of young people, the implications for the international order could be significant. of Global Leadership and Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School, based at the Belfer Center, will receive the prestigious 2019 Moynihan Prize in Social Science and Public Policy from the Bad World: The Negativity Bias in International American Academy of Political and Social Science (AAPSS). The award, which will be presented at Politics a ceremony in Washington, D.C. in October. The 2018 recipient was the Center’s John P. Holdren. Dominic D.P. Johnson and Dominic Tierney Negative phenomena more strongly influence leaders’ judgments and decisionmaking than do positive Washington Post Columnist David Ignatius received the Special George Polk Award for his phenomena. This so-called negativity bias helps explain state behavior that contributes to the security dilemma, writing on the murder of Post contributor Jamal Khashoggi. Ignatius was presented the award— threat inflation, and the persistence of war. along with the Post’s Karen Attiah—for “their eloquence and resolve in demanding accountability from the Saudi Arabian government and candor from the Trump Administration in the wake of Nationalism, Collaboration, and Resistance: the gruesome murder of their colleague and friend, Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi.” One of France under Nazi Occupation the most prestigious prizes in journalism, the Polk Awards memorialize George Polk, a CBS Matthew Adam Kocher, Adria K. Lawrence, and Nuno P. Monteiro correspondent who was killed while covering the civil war in Greece. Many scholars and analysts suggest that nationalism produces resistance against foreign powers, but a reconsideration of the German occupation of France in Evan A. Feigenbaum, former International Security Program/Managing the Atom Research World War II reveals how a population might instead choose acquiescence or active collaboration. Domestic political Fellow who worked on China-related issues at the Kennedy School, has been named Vice competition and the international context prevented French President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. In his new role, nationalism from being translated into wholesale resistance. Feigenbaum will oversee work on a dynamic region encompassing both East Asia and South Asia, including the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center in Beijing and Carnegie India in New Delhi. He is Why China Has Not Caught Up Yet: Military- a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs. Technological Superiority, Systems Integration, and the Challenges of Imitation, Reverse Engineering, and Cyber-Espionage Andrea Gilli and Mauro Gilli Grand Strategy, Security, and Statecraft

RUSI The extraordinary complexity of today’s advanced Research Fellow William James was awarded weapons systems has significantly reduced the ability second prize in the Royal United Services of states to imitate other states’ military technology. Consequently, U.S. rivals such as China will continue Institute’s Trench Gascoigne essay competi- to struggle to develop indigenous capabilities that can tion for his entry, “Salvaging Grand Strategy.” match those of the United States. The award was presented by the UK Chief of Defence Staff General Sir Nick Carter and The International Security journal is edited at former British Foreign Secretary Lord William Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center and Hague. The Trench Gascoigne Essay Prize, published quarterly by the MIT Press. Questions which dates back to 1874, is awarded for origi- may be directed to [email protected]. nal writing on contemporary issues of national Follow us on Twitter and international defense and security. @journal_is

Compiled by International Security staff

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 15 Nonprofit Org. U.S. Postage PAID Nashua, NH The Robert and Renée Belfer Center for Permit No. 375 Science and International Affairs

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Belfer Center Newsletter Spring 2019

EDITOR: Sharon Wilke Associate Director of Communications [email protected]

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Josh Burek Director of Global Communications and Strategy [email protected] The Belfer Center has a dual mission: (1) to provide leadership in advancing policy-relevant knowledge about

The Communications Office was assisted in the production of this newsletter by the most important challenges of international security and other critical issues where science, technology, Hannah Ebanks, Karen Ejiofor, Christian Gibbons, Rex Horner, Susan Lynch, John environmental policy, and international affairs intersect, and (2) to prepare future generations of leaders for Park, and William Tobey. these arenas. Subscribe to Belfer Center publications at belfercenter.org/subscribe

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Belfer in Brief

Belfer Center Ranked World’s Remembering Top University Think Tank Marie Besançon

For the sixth year in a row, the Belfer Center was named the best university- affiliated research center in the world. The rankings, released in February, appear in the 2018 Global Go To Think Tank Index Report. “The Belfer Center exists to build a more secure, peaceful world,” said Center Director Ash Carter. “Through active engagement with leaders in government, busi- ness, and media around the globe, our community of scholars, students, and staff go beyond intellectual advancement to lasting policy impact that serves the public good.” Marie Besançon, affectionately known by her Sudanese team as “Doc,” signals V for victory for the team’s accomplishments in her last blog.

Students Conduct Research in Gulf Region The Belfer Center fondly remembers Marie More than 60 students from seven Bruderlein in Lebanon for the sixth year Besançon, a Center research fellow from 2002– Harvard graduate schools traveled to of a joint HKS-HSPH course on human- 2008, most recently with the International Security the Middle East over the January term itarian negotiations in the Middle East, Program (ISP). Besançon, who was killed in a car to take part in three different Middle East examining dilemmas around safe return accident in late fall, was the founder and continuing Initiative (MEI) internships and research for Syrian refugees. And MEI’s Hilary director of Homes for Sudan, an organization programs. As the Emirates Leadership Rantisi joined Harvard Divinity School’s focused on education for entrepreneurship and Initiative celebrated its five year anni- (HDS) Diane Moore and 16 students for building superadobe earth homes. “Marie was versary, 20 Harvard Kennedy School a new HDS course entitled “Narratives a wonderful colleague,” said ISP Director Steven (HKS) students and fellows embarked of Displacement and Belonging in Israel Miller, “and she was particularly admirable for on a weeklong field visit on gender and the West Bank.” combining her scholarly pursuits with serious inclusion policy in the United Arab For more information on MEI’s efforts to improve the lives of people in Sudan Emirates. Fourteen students and one research, events, and student programs, who were trapped by conflict and poverty.” Nieman fellow joined Harvard School visit belfercenter.org/MEI. See http://homesforsudan.blogspot.com/ of Public Health (HSPH) Prof. Claude

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