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Bound by Brand: Opposition Party Support Under Electoral Authoritarianism

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Bound by Brand: Opposition Party Support Under Electoral Authoritarianism Bound by Brand: Opposition Party Support under Electoral Authoritarianism by Michael D. Robbins A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Political Science) in The University of Michigan 2012 Doctoral Committee: Professor Anna M. Grzymala-Busse, Co-Chair Professor Mark A. Tessler, Co-Chair Professor Sherman A. Jackson Professor Kenneth W. Kollman © Michael D. Robbins 2012 DEDICATION To KFGR and in loving memory of CPH ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Throughout my years in graduate school I have been extremely blessed to work and interact with some of the most incredible people I have ever known. Without their combined input, this project would have been impossible. For their help and support, I am truly grateful. I am particularly grateful to each of my committee members for their support. First, I must thank Mark Tessler, who was as supportive of me throughout these years as I could ever hope. His own research provided critical the starting point for my own work and without his lifelong dedication to giving a voice to ordinary citizens throughout the Arab world through public opinion surveys, my work, as well as many others in our field, would be impossible. Mark provided me with numerous opportunities to travel to the region and to conduct research with him. Even more than that, he became a close friend and partner in research. Anna Grzymala-Busse was essential in developing the framework for this dissertation. I spent many hours in her office pouring over early ideas, rough outlines, and finally drafts. For her infinite patience and wisdom I am deeply thankful. Since serving as Ken Kollman’s research assistant the summer after my first year of graduate school, I have come to greatly value his feedback and insights on this and other projects. I am also thankful to Sherman Jackson who, despite leaving Michigan for warmer climes, has helped make this project possible. In addition to these faculty, I was blessed to be surrounded by many amazing professors at Michigan. I am particularly thankful to Jake Bowers, Rob Franzese, Ashu Varshney, Rob Mickey, John Jackson, Jenna Bednar, Don Kinder, Nancy Burns, Daniel Levine, Greg Markus, Rob Salmond, Bill Clark, and Edie Goldenberg. I also thank Raji Rammuny and the late Waheed Samy for not only working with me on my Arabic but also for teaching me so much about the Arab world. This project would also not have been possible without the help and support of my fellow graduate students. I am indebted to Charles Doriean, Papia Debroy, Andrea iii Jones-Rooy, Jennifer Miller-Gonzalez, Michio Umeda, Kharis Templeton, Dan Corstange, Katie Simmons, Ella Gao, Joshua Gubler, Joel Simmons, Laura Schram, Janna Bray, Carolina de Miguel Moyer, Lindsay Benstead, David Smith, and Megan Reif. I am particularly indebted to Matias Bargsted for our daily conversations that helped me develop my arguments, and the times spent with in the warm, charming home of his and Maite Zubia were some of the best in all of graduate school. My fieldwork was supported by so many in the region as well. Fares Braizat facilitated much of my work in Jordan, as did the entire staff at the Center for Strategic Studies. A special thanks to Muhammad al-Masri, Ahmad Saad-Eldeen, Mustafa Hamarneh, Sulyman Abu Ahmad, Bayan Abdullat, Nagham Akkad, and Hasan Alhisa. I am also thankful to David Berger, Hashem Maaitah, and the staff at ACOR. In Palestine, the support of everyone at the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research greatly added my research including Khalil Shikaki, Alaa Lahloh, Mahmoud Jaraba, Waled Ladadweh. The friendship of Brian Phelps and Stephen Lassiter also made my time more enjoyable. I am also thankful to a number of friends from other parts of my life who have helped me through this process. Tarik Yousef opened many doors for me, doors that eventually led me to graduate school. Amaney Jamal, Larry Rubin and Lisa Blaydes have also been sources of great help and inspiration. I have also been blessed by a number of great friends who have encouraged me during tough times including Paul Dyer, Phil McDaniel, David Varner, Carmen Niethammer, Matthew Barrett, and Frank Dunn. A special thanks to Michael Durst, who has been a rock for me throughout these years and who has always been there to pick me up when times were tough. I am also grateful for the generous support of a number of institutions including the National Science Foundation, the Department of Education’s Foreign Language and Area Studies Fellowship, the Rackham Graduate School at the University of Michigan, the International Institute at the University of Michigan, the University of Michigan’s Department of Political Science, and the Belfer Center at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. Most of all I am in debt to my family. My mother and father have been instrumental in giving me a love of learning and encouraging to me to follow my heart. iv My sister Amanda has taught me more about life than almost anyone. Tom Horn gave me the courage to pursue paths unknown and was always there to help show me the way forward. Petie and Zeke have also been a great source of comfort over the years. I am also grateful to my grandparents Calvin and Ruth Horn for giving me a love for traveling and foreign cultures at a young age. My grandfather’s love of learning greatly influenced me at a young age and inspired my own pursuit of knowledge. Finally, I could not have done this without the constant love and support of my wife Kate. Since we first met at our first week at “math camp”, she has been my source of greatest encouragement and she has given me more support than anyone deserves. I know she never thought she would come to know so much about the Arab world, but I have very much enjoyed the journey and learned more from her than anyone. I am eternally grateful. v TABLE OF CONTENTS DEDICATION ………………………………………………………………….. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS …………………………………………………….. iii LIST OF FIGURES …………………………………………………………….. vii LIST OF TABLES ……………………………………………………………… viii LIST OF ABREVIATIONS ………………….………………………………… ix CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ………………………………………………………….… 1 2. BOUND BY BRAND ……………………………………………….............. 15 3. UNDERSTANDING SUPPORT FOR POLITICAL ISLAM ………………. 28 Appendix 3.1 ………………………………………………………………… 63 Appendix 3.2 ………………………………………………………………… 67 Appendix 3.3 ………………………………………………………………… 69 Appendix 3.4 ………………………………………………………………… 75 Appendix 3.5 ………………………………………………………………… 81 4. CHANGES IN PARTY STRATEGY OVER TIME ………………………... 82 5. THE ECONOMIC CHALLENGE FOR ISLAMIST PARTIES ……….…... 124 Appendix 5.1 ………………………………………………………………... 158 Appendix 5.2 ………………………………………………………………... 160 6. MACROLEVEL IMPLICATIONS ………………………………………… 183 7. ACCOUNTING FOR CHANGES IN SUPPORT OVER TIME …………… 197 Appendix 7 …………………………………………………………………... 218 8. CONCLUSIONS …………………………………………………………….. 221 REFERENCES …………………………………………………………………. 241 vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1 Support for Islamist Parties over Time …………………………………….. 3 2.1 Summary of Theoretical Predictions ……………………………………... 25 3.1 Support for All Laws in Accordance with the Shari‘a ……………………. 31 3.2 Considers Candidate’s Religiosity in Voting …………………………...… 32 3.3 Men of Religion Should not Influence Voters ………………………......... 34 3.4 More Religious Official is Better …………………………………………. 34 3.5 Men of Religion Should Influence Government Decisions ………………. 35 3.6 Support for Political Islam ……………………………………………...… 36 3.7 Support for a System Where Only Religious Parties Are Allowed to Compete ………………………………………………………………… 38 3.8 Support for a System under Islamic Law without Parliament or Elections . 38 6.1 Percentage of Respondents Stating that Economic Issues Are the Most Important Problem ……………………………………………………….. 185 6.2 Percentage of Respondents Stating that Tribal Identity is as Important or More Important than Qualifications in Obtaining a Government Job .... 190 6.3 Summary of Theoretical Predictions ……………………………………... 191 6.4 Mapping the Countries Based on the Predictions of the Model ………….. 192 6.5 Comparison of Predictions to Levels of Support for Islamist Parties ……. 193 7.1 Support for the IAF over Time …………………………………………… 198 7.2 Tribal Voting in Jordan ………………………………………………….... 208 7.3 Voting Choice based on a Candidate’s Position on Israel in Jordan ……... 209 vii List of Tables Table 1.1 Stated Support for Islamist Parties ………………………………………... 2 1.2 Vote Share for Islamist Parties in Parliamentary Elections ………….......... 3 3.1 Determinants of Support for Political Islam ……………………………… 75 3.2 Results from 2003 Survey in Palestine ………………………………….... 81 4.1 Party Strategy Over Time on Economic Issues ……………………......... 122 5.1 Distribution of the Dependent Variable …………………………………. 132 5.2 Restricted Model Iteration 1 ……….….…...…………………………….. 160 5.3 Restricted Model Iteration 2 ……….….…...…………………………….. 162 5.4 Restricted Model Iteration 3 ……….….…...…………………………….. 164 5.5 Restricted Model Iteration 4 ……….….…...…………………………….. 166 5.6 Unrestricted Model Iteration 1 ……….….……………………...……….. 168 5.7 Unrestricted Model Iteration 2 ……….….……………………...……….. 170 5.8 Unrestricted Model Iteration 3 ……….….…………………..….……….. 172 5.9 Unrestricted Model Iteration 4 ……….….…………………..….……….. 174 5.10 Model for Leftist Parties Iteration 1 ………………...……...………...… 176 5.11 Model for Leftist Parties Iteration 2 ………………...……...………...… 178 5.12 Interactive Model for Jordan Iteration 1 …………………...….………... 180 5.13 Interactive Model for Jordan Iteration 1 ………………………………... 181 5.14 Predicted Effects for Jordan ………………………..…………………… 182 7.1 Vote
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