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By Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Of FROM DIWAN TO PALACE: JORDANIAN TRIBAL POLITICS AND ELECTIONS by LAURA C. WEIR Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements For the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Dissertation Adviser: Dr. Pete Moore Department of Political Science CASE WESTERN RESERVE UNIVERSITY January, 2013 CASE WESTERN RESERVE UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES We hereby approve the thesis/dissertation of Laura Weir candidate for the Doctor of Philosophy degree *. Pete Moore, Ph.D (chair of the committee) Vincent E. McHale, Ph.D. Kelly McMann, Ph.D. Neda Zawahri, Ph.D. (date) October 19, 2012 *We also certify that written approval has been obtained for any proprietary material contained therein. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables v List of Maps and Illustrations viii List of Abbreviations x CHAPTERS 1. RESEARCH PUZZLE AND QUESTIONS Introduction 1 Literature Review 6 Tribal Politics and Elections 11 Case Study 21 Potential Challenges of the Study 30 Conclusion 35 2. THE HISTORY OF THE JORDANIAN ―STATE IN SOCIETY‖ Introduction 38 The First Wave: Early Development, pre-1921 40 The Second Wave: The Arab Revolt and the British, 1921-1946 46 The Third Wave: Ideological and Regional Threats, 1946-1967 56 The Fourth Wave: The 1967 War and Black September, 1967-1970 61 Conclusion 66 3. SCARCE RESOURCES: THE STATE, TRIBAL POLITICS, AND OPPOSITION GROUPS Introduction 68 How Tribal Politics Work 71 State Institutions 81 iii Good Governance Challenges 92 Guests in Our Country: The Palestinian Jordanians 101 4. THREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES: FAILURE OF POLITICAL PARTIES AND THE RISE OF TRIBAL POLITICS Introduction 118 Political Threats and Opportunities, 1921-1970 125 The Political Significance of Black September 139 Tribes and Parties, 1989-2007 141 The Muslim Brotherhood 146 Conclusion 152 5. TRIBAL REALPOLITIK: TRIBAL POLITICS AND ELECTIONS Introduction 154 Early Elections, 1950-1967 156 Elections of 1989, State Manipulation of the Rules, Responses from the Tribes 159 Tribal Adaptations in the 1993 Elections and the 1997 Elections 164 The Elections of the Twenty-First Century: Consolidating the Political Status Quo 169 The Case of the 2007 Elections in Amman 181 Challenges to the Institution of Tribal Politics? 198 Conclusion 210 6. THE POLITICS OF SURVIVAL: A VIEW FROM BELOW Introduction 212 Considering the Evidence 213 The Tribal Politics of Universities: A Question for Future Research 220 iv Looking into the Larger Question of Tribal Politics in the Arab World 223 APPENDICES Appendix A: The Tribes of Jordan 227 Appendix B: Jordan‘s 2007 Parliamentary Elections Tracking Polls 232 Appendix C: Governates and Electoral District Data for the 2007 National Parliamentary Elections 235 Appendix D: The 2010 National Parliamentary Election Results for All of Jordan 255 WORKS CITED 258 v LIST OF TABLES CHAPTER 1 1.1 Names of Tribes who are the Important Political Power Brokers in Jordan 20 CHAPTER 3 3.1 Legislative Councils of Jordan, 1929-1947 87 3.2 Tribal Leader Holding Offices of Both Chief of the Royal Court & Prime Minister 91 CHAPTER 4 4.1 Comparison of Tribes and Parties as Political Institutions 124 4.2 Tribal Shaykhs Belonging to Multiple Political Parties (1921-1937) 129 4.3 Political Parties, 1948-1967 133 4.4 Political Party Performance in the National Elections during the 1950s 134 4.5 Party Connection to Citizenry 143 4.6 Performances of Political Parties, 2004-2007 146 4.7 Public Opinion of Political Parties, 2004-2007 146 4.8 Main Consideration for Choosing a Candidate 146 CHAPTER 5 5.1 1989 National Assembly Election Results Summary 163 5.2 National Assembly Electoral Rules 1989-2007 163 5.3 Women‘s Participation in National Elections 177 5.4 Comparison of Turnout in Non-tribal Area (Amman) and Tribal Area (Kirak) in the 2007 National Elections 181 5.5 Results for the 2003 National Legislative Elections of Independent Islamists in Amman 187 5.6 IAF Candidates in Amman for the 2007 National Legislative Elections 188 vi 5.7 Amman Election Data by District for the 2007 National Legislative Elections 197 5.8 Winners in the 2007 National Legislative Elections in Amman 197 5.9 The 16th House of Deputies Previous Relationships with the Government, 2010 203 5.10 Trend of Tribal Legislative Incumbency from 1989 through 2010 National Parliamentary Elections. 210 APPENDIX C C.1 2007 Election Data for Ajloun 235 C.2 Ajloun Voting Statistics 235 C.3 2007 Election Results for Amman Districts 237 C.4 2007 Elections Voter Turnout in Amman 237 C.5 2007 National Election Results for Aqaba 238 C.6 2007 National Election Turnout Data for Aqaba 238 C.7 Balqa‘a District Data 239 C.8 2007 Election Results for Balqa‘a 239 C.9 2007 Election Voter Turnout for Balqa‘a 240 C.10 2007 National Election Results for Irbid 241 C.11 2007 Election Voter Turnout for Irbid 242 C.12 2007 National Election Results for Jerash 243 C.13 2007 Voter Turnout for Jerash 243 C.14 2007 National Election Results for Kerak by District 244 C.15 2007 Voter Turnout for Kerak 245 C.16 2007 National Election Results for Ma‘an 246 C.17 2007 Voter Turnout Data for Ma‘an 247 vii C.18 2007 National Election Results for Mafraq 249 C.19 2007 National Election Results for Northern Badia 250 C.20 2007 Voter Turnout Data for Mafraq 250 C.21 2007 National Election Results for Tafileh 251 C.22 2007 Voter Turnout Data for Tafileh 252 C.23 2007 National Election Results for Central Badia 252 C.24 2007 National Election results for Zarqa 253 C.25 2007 Voter Turnout Data for Zarqa 254 APPENDIX D D.1 2010 Parliamentary Election Results for All of Jordan 255 viii LIST OF MAPS AND ILLUSTRATIONS FRONT MATTER Map 1. Contemporary Jordan and Its Neighbors xi Map 2. Geographic Origins of Jordan‘s Major Tribes xii CHAPTER 5 Figure 5.1 2007 Election Cartoon from the Famous Political Satirist, Emad Hajjaj 192 Figure 5.2 Armed ―Ushers‖ at the Polling Station in Jiza (Sixth District) 195 Figure 5.3 Winning Candidates by Percentages 200 APPENDIX B Figure B.1 2007 Elections Tracking Surveys: Total Waves 1 & 2 232 Figure B.2 Parliamentary Elections 2007 Exit Polls 232 APPENDIX C Figure C.1 The Governate of Ajlun 235 Figure C.2 The Governate of Amman 236 Figure C.3 The Electoral Districts of Amman 236 Figure C.4 The Governate of Aqaba 238 Figure C.5 The Electoral Districts of Aqaba 238 Figure C.6 The Governate of Balqa‘a 239 Figure C.7 The Electoral Districts of Balqa‘a 239 Figure C.8 The Governate of Irbid 241 Figure C.9 The Electoral Districts for Irbid 241 Figure C.10 The Governate of Jerash 243 Figure C.11 The Electoral District for Jerash 243 ix Figure C.12 The Governate of Kerak 244 Figure C.13 The Electoral Districts for Kerak 244 Figure C.14 The Governate of Ma‘an 246 Figure C.15 The Electoral Districts for Ma‘an 246 Figure C.16 The Governate of Madaba 248 Figure C.17 The Electoral Districts for Madaba 248 Figure C.18 The Governate of Mafraq 249 Figure C.19 The Electoral Districts for Mafraq 249 Figure C.20 The Governate of Tafileh 251 Figure C.21 The Electoral Districts for Tafileh 251 Figure C.22 The Governate of Zarqa 253 Figure C.23 The Electoral Districts for Zarqa 253 APPENDIX D Figure D.1 255 x LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS FATAH Palestinian Political Party; ―beginning of victory‖ FY Fiscal Year GID General Intelligence Department IAF Islamic Action Front IMF International Monetary Fund JD Jordanian Dinar (unit of currency) MB Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood MP Member of Parliament MENA Middle East and North Africa PFLP Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine PLO Palestinian Liberation Organization UN United Nations UNRWA United Nations Relief and Works Agency USD United States Dollar xi From Diwan to Palace: Jordanian Tribal Politics and Elections Abstract Despite the vast research by political science scholars on the persistence of authoritarian regimes in the Middle East, little is known about why citizens have not pushed for more democratic reforms. The recent Arab Spring has focused our attention on the few countries that have experienced revolt against their authoritarian leaders. Many of those ―transitions to democracy‖ are still quite contested or in danger of failing. A similar scenario occurred in 1989 in Jordan when King Hussein allowed credibly free and fair elections. These elections should have led to more liberalizing reform and possible a true constitutional monarchy or democracy. Counterintuitively, they did not. This study looks at the reasons why an authoritarian state such as Jordan has remained intact. In large part, Jordan has remained a very conservative authoritarian state because of tribal politics. Tribal politics have erased the distinct boundaries between what is the state and what is private. Tribal politics in Jordan helps explain how ―the state‖ is not a discrete monolith that is controlled exclusively by an authoritarian leader. Rather, over time, the state has evolved unevenly and in reaction to tribal groups who were looking to empower or enrich themselves. Different powerful tribes have ―captured‖ various agencies of the state and rule them almost as part of their personal power. Previous research focuses on regime manipulations of the rules. This study offers a different perspective and set of causal factors for the explanation. While acknowledging regime manipulation exists, this case study suggests the evidence shows tribes are self-interested actors who use their own tribal sets of rules and sanctions to capture seats in the parliament. Examination of the succeeding elections illuminates how tribes are able to handle new regime rules and adapt to the new political opportunities in order to gain further power within the state.
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