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Pegasus Planning for the Future Group White Paper and Changes to the Current Planning System Consultations – A South East Perspective

The Standard Method and Transitional Arrangements for Local Plan Preparation

OCTOBER 2020

Introduction This Briefing Note has been prepared by Pegasus Group and focuses on the implications for the South East region of the Government consultations on Changes to the Current Planning System and the White Paper. Since the publication of the White Paper and the accompanying consultation on more immediate changes to the planning system, the key matters of interest for those engaged in the planning system have been the implications of the proposed revised standard methodology for determining local housing need and the timescales for local authorities to have new plans in place. This note looks at both of these issues.

DESIGN ENVIRONMENT PLANNING ECONOMICS HERITAGE 2 Pegasus Group - Planning White Paper - Regional Notes - South East

The New Standard Methodology - What it Means for the South East The Pegasus Briefing Note provides a commentary on the proposed changes to the standard methodology for the calculation of local housing need. A lot could change as a result of the current consultation, but based on what we know, what are the implications for the South East? We have looked at the likely housing figures from the new methodology and compared them with current local plan housing figures to look at how the figures compare to the current local authority housing targets.

Overall, the new standard method produces a housing need in excess of the number of homes planned for within the adopted housing requirements across the region, with some limited exceptions. For some local authorities the increases are significant. Whilst on the face of it this is good news for the house building industry in the region, it also raises the question whether such increases in annual housing provision are actually deliverable, when local constraints are taken into account.

Berkshire For the Berkshire local planning authorities in combination, the new standard method 1,800 results in a local housing need 25.8% above the total target in the adopted Local Plans. 1,600 is the only Berkshire authority with a decrease from its adopted Local Plan target 1,400 of 33.1% (just under 300 dwellings per annum). In both relative and absolute terms, 1,200 Wokingham sees the highest increase on its Local Plan figure of 866 dwellings per 1,000 annum (a 112.7% increase). 800 600 For all local authority areas in Berkshire, the combined consultation figure results 400 in an increase of 26.5% on the current standard method. Again, Slough is the only 200 local authority that sees a decrease on its current standard method figure (33.2%). 0 The Wokingham consultation figure is over double (103.3%) the annual housing need Bracknel l Rea ding Slough West Ber kshire Windsor and Wokingham calculated using the current standard method. Forest Maidenhead

SM according to consultation Local Plan Annual Requirement Pegasus Group - Planning White Paper - Regional Notes - South East 3

Buckinghamshire In combination, the consultation figure for the Buckinghamshire authorities results in 2,500 a 22.7% increase on the Local Plan figures. The consultation figure is higher than the annual housing target set out in the Local Plans for all authorities except Milton Keynes, 2,000 which sees a decrease of 19.8% (just under 350 dwellings per annum) on its Local Plan target. Aylesbury Vale sees the largest increase in absolute terms of just under 750 1,500 dwellings per annum (51.4%). 1,000 The consultation figure for Buckinghamshire is also 15.0% higher than the combined current standard method figure. Again, Milton Keynes is the only local authority that 500 sees a decrease on its current standard method figure of 24.4% (almost 460 dwellings per annum fewer). In absolute terms, Chiltern sees the highest increase on its current 0 standard method figure of 83.8%. Aylesbury Vale Chiltern* Milton Ke yne s South Bucks* Wycombe

SM according to consultation Local Plan Annual Requirement * Chiltern and South Bucks have a combined target of 763 dwellings per annum. For the purpose of this note, this target has been halved and split between the two local authorities.

East Sussex Overall, the new standard method requirement would result in an increase of more 1,600 than double the targets set out in the existing plans for the East Sussex authorities in 1,400 combination. The consultation figure for every authority in East Sussex individually is also 1,200 more than double that set out in the respective Local Plans. In absolute terms, Brighton 1,000 and Hove sees that highest increase from its Local Plan target of 860 additional dwellings 800 per annum (a 130.3% increase), followed by Rother at just under 840 additional dwellings per annum (250.0% - representing the highest increase of the East Sussex authorities in 600 relative terms). 400 200 The consultation figure for all of East Sussex is 33.9% higher than the current standard 0 method. Two local authorities – and Wealden – see a decrease from the Brighton and Ea stbour ne Hasti ngs Lewes Rothe r Wea lden current standard method of 27.2% and 2.6% respectively. The consultation figure for Hove Rother is more than double (150.0% higher) than that of the current standard method. SM according to consultation Local Plan Annual Requirement 4 Pegasus Group - Planning White Paper - Regional Notes - South East

Hampshire Including The consultation figure for the Hampshire local authorities (including the Isle of Wight) is over a third (34.8%) higher than the combined annual dwelling requirement set out in the 1,200 Local Plans. Three local authorities in the County – ; Fareham; 1,000 and – see a decrease on their Local Plan targets of 19.5%, 40.7% and 8.0% 800 respectively. The other areas all see an increase on the Local Plan figures, most notably 600 in Havant with an increase of almost 650 dwellings per annum (205.6%). 400 200 The Hampshire consultation figure also represents an increase of 16.4% on the current 0 standard method. The consultation figures for Basingstoke and Deane; Fareham; New Hart Forest; ; and all represent a decrease on the current standard Gos por t Havant EastleighFar eham Rushmoor method figures. Again, Havant sees the highest increase on its standard method figure New ForestPortsmouth Test ValleyWinchester Southampton Isle of Wight in both relative and absolute terms with an additional 480 dwellings per annum (a 98.2% Ea st Hamps hir e increase). Basingstoke and Deane

SM according to consultation Local Plan Annual Requirement

Kent For the Kent local planning authorities in combination, the new standard method results in a local housing need 68.5% above the total target in the adopted local plans. 1,800 1,600 Excluding , which has no annual housing requirement established through its 1,400 Local Plan, only two of the Kent authorities see a decrease from their Local Plan targets 1,200 1,000 – (0.2%) and (38.2%). In absolute terms, and Malling 800 sees that highest increase from its Local Plan target of over 740 additional dwellings per 600 400 annum (a 106.9% increase). 200 0 For all local authority areas in Kent, the combined consultation figure results in an increase of 22.5% on the current standard method. Gravesham, Medway and Thanet are D ove r Swale Thanet Ashford D artfor d the only three authorities to see a decrease from the current standard method of 20.3%, Canterbury GraveshamMaidstoneMedwa y** 30.5% and 8.5% respectively. The consultation figure is over double (103.2%) the Tunbridge Wells annual housing need calculated using the current standard method, representing an and Hythe increased of 650 dwellings per annum. SM according to consultation Local Plan Annual Requirement * No annual requirement is established through the adopted Local Plan for Medway. Pegasus Group - Planning White Paper - Regional Notes - South East 5

Oxfordshire Overall, the new standard method requirement would result in an increase of 2.8% on the 1,600 targets set out in the existing plans for Oxfordshire authorities. is the 1,400 only local authority to see a decrease on its Local Plan target of just over 470 dwellings 1,200 per annum (42.0%). The sees the highest increase on its Local Plan 1,000 figure of just under 240 dwellings per annum (19.4%). 800 The consultation figure for all of Oxfordshire is 40.8% higher than the current standard 600 method. is the only local authority for which the consultation represents a 400 decrease on the current standard method (of 12.4% or 93 dwellings per annum). The 200 consultation figure for the Vale of White Horse is more than double (113.2% higher) than 0 that of the current standard method. Cherwell Oxford Vale of White West Oxfordshire Hors e

SM according to consultation Local Plan Annual Requirement

Surrey In combination, the consultation figure for the Surrey authorities results in a 19.9% 1,200 increase on the Local Plan figures. The consultation figure is lower than the annual 1,000 housing target set out in the Local Plans for Runnymede, Spelthorne and Tandridge by 800 48.6%, 18.9% and 17.3% respectively. The remaining eight local authorities all see an 600 increase on their adopted targets, most notable and with an increase of 400 more than 630 dwellings per annum (137.2%). 200 0 The consultation figure is also 7.43% higher than the current standard method figure for the Surrey authorities. Roughly half of the local authorities in Surrey see a decrease Woking Elm br idg e Guil dford Tandridge Waverley on the current standard method figure, most notably Runnymede at more than 180 Mol e Val ley Spelthorne Runnymede dwellings per annum (33.6%). sees the largest increase on its and Ewell current standard method figure of 69.4% (just under 450 dwellings per annum). Reig ate and Banstead

SM according to consultation Local Plan Annual Requirement 6 Pegasus Group - Planning White Paper - Regional Notes - South East

West Sussex The consultation figure for the West Sussex local authorities is over double (104.5%) the 2,500 combined annual dwelling requirement set out in the Local Plans. Every local authority in the County sees an increase on its Local Plan target, with seeing the largest 2,000 increase in relative terms at 335.7% (over 670 dwellings per annum) and Arun seeing the largest absolute increase of over 1,060 dwellings per annum (106.3%). 1,500

The West Sussex consultation figure also represents an increase of 42.7% on the current 1,000 standard method. Chichester sees the highest increase on its current standard method figure in relative terms of 83.8% (over 510 dwellings per annum) and Horsham sees the 500 highest increase in absolute terms of 750 additional dwellings per annum (77.7%). 0 Adur Arun Chichester Hors ham Mid Sus se x Worthing

SM according to consultation Local Plan Annual Requirement

South East Overview South East Comparing the overall standard method consultation figure to the combined Local Plan 16,000 targets for every county in the South East, Kent sees the largest increase in absolute 14,000 terms of just under 6,100 dwellings per annum (68.5%), followed by West Sussex at 4,100 12,000 10,000 additional dwellings per annum (104.5%). In relative terms, East Sussex sees the highest 8,000 increase on its combined Local Plan figures at 152.6% (over 3,400 additional dwellings 6,000 per annum). The consultation figure for Oxfordshire represents the lowest increase of the 4,000 South East counties at 131 additional dwellings per annum (2.8%). 2,000 0 The West Sussex consultation figure also represents an increase of 42.7% on the current Kent standard method. Chichester sees the highest increase on its current standard method Surrey Ber kshire figure in relative terms of 83.8% (over 510 dwellings per annum) and Horsham sees the Hampshire Ea st Sussex Oxfordshire West Sussex highest increase in absolute terms of 750 additional dwellings per annum (77.7%). Buck ing ha mshire

SM according to consultation Local Plan Annual Requirement Pegasus Group - Planning White Paper - Regional Notes - South East 7

Timescales and Transitional Provisions The current consultations relate to two documents. Changes to the Current Planning Authorities with plans in place in the last three years are set out in Table 1 below. They System contains proposals that could be introduced through changes to the NPPF and will have to bring in plans in line with the new system, including the new standard Planning Practice Guidance quite quickly, but the more fundamental changes outlined method for housing requirements, but will have 3 ½ years to bring the plan forward. in the White Paper will require new primary and secondary legislation. The Government advises that they expect new Local Plans prepared in accordance with the proposals of LOCAL AUTHORITY LOCAL PLAN POSITION WHAT DOES the White Paper to be in place by the end of this Parliament – May 2024. THIS MEAN… Reading Local Plan adopted 2019 The documents set out transitional provisions and expected timescales for preparing new Local Plans. In terms of transitional provisions, the consultation document on Changes Milton Keynes Local Plan adopted 2019 to the Current Planning System advises that local authorities can proceed with plans Lewes Local Plan Part 1: Joint Core Strategy based on the current standard method rather than the new standard method where they to 2030 adopted 11 May 2016; Local will be at or close to the Regulation 19 Pre-Submission consultation stage by the time Plan Part 2: Site Allocations and the new guidance is introduced; Development Management Policies adopted February 2020. • LPAs at Reg 19 will have 6 months to submit their plan to the Secretary of State; Rother Core Strategy to 2028 adopted 29 • LPAs close to Reg 19 will need to publish their plan in 3 months and submit it to the September 2014; Development and Secretary of State in 6 months. Site Allocations Local Plan adopted 16 42 months to December 2019. adopt a new Local Thereafter, Local Plans will be subject to the proposed revised standard method until Plan from when Hart Local Plan (Strategy and Sites) 2032 the legislative reforms of the White Paper are enacted and national policy revised the legislation is adopted 30 April 2020. accordingly. brought into force New Forest Local Plan 2016-2036 Part 1: Planning The White Paper sets out proposed timescales for the preparation of new Local Plans. Strategy adopted 6 July 2020. There will be a statutory requirement for local authorities to have a new style plan in Rushmoor Local Plan 2014-2032 adopted 21 place 2 ½ years after the relevant legislation is in place. The exception will be those February 2019. local authorities with plans adopted in the last 3 years or with plans submitted for examination. They will have 3 ½ years to get a new plan in place. Ashford Local Plan adopted February 2019 Thanet Local Plan adopted July 2020. For the South East, a number of LPAs are already at Examination, including Windsor and Oxford Local Plan adopted in June 2020 Maidenhead; Aylesbury Vale; Chiltern and South Bucks (having published a combined Local Plan); Folkestone and Hythe; Tonbridge and Malling; South Oxfordshire; and Vale of White Horse Local Plan 2031 Part 1 – Adopted Woking. Others have already published their Reg 19 Plans, including Wokingham; December 2016; Local Plan 2031 Part Brighton & Hove; Crawley; and Mid Sussex. Reg 19 Plans are anticipated for Fareham; 2 – Adopted October 2019. Havant; Gravesham; Tandridge; Waverley; and Worthing. These LPAs will be in a position to get to Reg 19 stage within 3 months of the relevant new guidance being introduced, so West Oxfordshire Local Plan adopted September 2018. should be able to continue on the basis of their current Plan. TABLE 1 – LOCAL AUTHORITIES WITH RECENTLY ADOPTED PLANS 8 Pegasus Group - Planning White Paper - Regional Notes - South East

Appendix 1 - New Standard Method for South East LPAs LPA COUNTY DWELLING TOTAL 2019 STOCK 0.5% OF CURRENT STOCK DWELLING 2018 HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS 2020-2030 STEP 1 MEDIAN WORKPLACE BASED HOUSE PRICE INCOME RATIO TO 2009 MEDIAN WORKPLACE BASED HOUSE PRICE INCOME RATIO TO 2019 STEP 2 TO SM ACCORDING CONSULTATION CURRENT SM PLAN ANNUAL LCOAL REQUIREMENT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LP AND NEW SM % CHANGE Berkshire 50,231 251 353 353 5.55 9.33 2.28 805 615 615 190 30.8% Reading Berkshire 70,376 352 134 352 6.37 9.06 1.99 700 631 689 11 1.6% Slough Berkshire 55,769 279 274 279 5.61 8.94 2.14 597 893 893 -296 -33.1% Berkshire 68,423 342 229 342 6.83 9.54 2.02 692 520 520 172 33.1% Windsor and Berkshire 64,500 323 289 323 9.05 13.91 2.83 914 761 761 153 20.1% Maidenhead Wokingham Berkshire 68,425 342 672 672 7.25 11.19 2.43 1,635 804 769 866 112.7% Aylesbury Vale Buckingham- 82,018 410 1,047 1,047 7.57 10.37 2.10 2,197 1,423 1,451 746 51.4% shire Chiltern* Buckingham- 40,095 200 125 200 12.67 17.62 3.09 619 337 382 238 62.3% shire Milton Keynes Buckingham- 113,237 566 751 751 5.84 8.31 1.89 1,417 1,876 1,766 -349 -19.8% shire South Bucks* Buckingham- 29,624 148 95 148 10.77 15.56 2.92 433 431 382 51 13.4% shire Wycombe Buckingham- 74,044 370 81 370 7.64 11.40 2.40 889 766 546 343 62.9% shire East Sussex 127,981 640 493 640 8.50 12.00 2.38 1,520 924 660 860 130.3% Eastbourne East Sussex 48,925 245 289 289 6.48 8.17 1.68 486 668 239 247 103.5% East Sussex 44,417 222 193 222 6.69 9.48 2.04 453 430 200 253 126.5% Pegasus Group - Planning White Paper - Regional Notes - South East 9

Appendix 1 - New Standard Method for South East LPAs LPA COUNTY DWELLING TOTAL 2019 STOCK 0.5% OF CURRENT STOCK DWELLING 2018 HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS 2020-2030 STEP 1 MEDIAN WORKPLACE BASED HOUSE PRICE INCOME RATIO TO 2009 MEDIAN WORKPLACE BASED HOUSE PRICE INCOME RATIO TO 2019 STEP 2 TO SM ACCORDING CONSULTATION CURRENT SM PLAN ANNUAL LCOAL REQUIREMENT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LP AND NEW SM % CHANGE Lewes East Sussex 45,858 229 366 366 8.28 11.22 2.19 800 483 345 455 132.0% Rother East Sussex 45,602 228 505 505 9.23 12.42 2.32 1,173 469 335 838 250.0% Wealden East Sussex 70,029 350 602 602 9.47 11.55 1.99 1,199 1,231 450 749 166.4% Basingstoke and Hampshire 75,946 380 263 380 6.34 8.44 1.80 684 955 850 -166 -19.5% Deane Hampshire 53,581 268 393 393 10.26 13.41 2.38 932 611 492 440 89.5% Eastleigh Hampshire 57,676 288 458 458 7.69 9.94 1.93 885 719 721 164 22.8% Fareham Hampshire 50,200 251 233 251 7.94 9.09 1.61 403 520 680 -277 -40.7% Hampshire 37,705 189 102 189 5.85 7.52 1.64 309 238 170 139 81.6% Hart Hampshire 40,120 201 237 237 7.57 10.58 2.16 512 287 423 89 21.1% Havant Hampshire 55,680 278 469 469 7.23 9.95 2.05 963 486 315 648 205.6% New Forest Hampshire 82,212 411 370 411 9.37 11.18 1.90 782 997 521 261 50.0% Portsmouth Hampshire 90,777 454 319 454 5.05 6.79 1.61 730 867 456 274 60.2% Rushmoor Hampshire 39,867 199 15 199 5.05 8.08 2.01 401 266 436 -35 -8.0% Southampton Hampshire 108,096 540 410 540 5.39 6.84 1.54 832 1,028 815 17 2.1% Hampshire 55,266 276 451 451 8.22 9.95 1.80 813 556 588 225 38.3% Winchester Hampshire 52,740 264 378 378 8.75 13.28 2.71 1,025 666 666 359 53.9% Isle of Wight Isle of Wight 70,728 354 614 614 6.89 8.56 1.70 1,045 673 520 525 101.0% (Historically Hampshire) 10 Pegasus Group - Planning White Paper - Regional Notes - South East

Appendix 1 - New Standard Method for South East LPAs LPA COUNTY DWELLING TOTAL 2019 STOCK 0.5% OF CURRENT STOCK DWELLING 2018 HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS 2020-2030 STEP 1 MEDIAN WORKPLACE BASED HOUSE PRICE INCOME RATIO TO 2009 MEDIAN WORKPLACE BASED HOUSE PRICE INCOME RATIO TO 2019 STEP 2 TO SM ACCORDING CONSULTATION CURRENT SM PLAN ANNUAL LCOAL REQUIREMENT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LP AND NEW SM % CHANGE Ashford Kent 54,393 272 674 674 7.55 9.39 1.80 1,211 1,045 888 323 36.4% Canterbury Kent 68,161 341 503 503 7.37 10.65 2.24 1,125 1,120 1,127 -2 -0.2% Kent 47,309 237 657 657 5.76 9.23 2.19 1,441 797 865 576 66.6% Dover Kent 54,514 273 667 667 5.60 8.22 1.92 1,279 629 596 683 114.6% Folkestone and Hythe Kent 52,266 261 569 569 7.57 9.52 1.83 1,043 737 350 693 198.0% Gravesham Kent 43,569 218 139 218 6.34 8.62 1.86 405 508 655 -250 -38.2% Kent 72,134 361 732 732 7.43 10.40 2.14 1,569 1,236 833 736 88.3% Medway** Kent 115,153 576 415 576 5.34 8.41 2.04 1,176 1,693 - - - Sevenoaks Kent 50,514 253 315 315 8.98 13.12 2.61 820 707 505 315 62.4% Swale Kent 61,986 310 700 700 5.81 9.03 2.12 1,483 1,054 776 707 91.1% Thanet Kent 67,489 337 544 544 7.46 9.59 1.88 1,023 1,118 876 147 16.8% Tonbridge and Malling Kent 55,184 276 579 579 7.79 11.79 2.49 1,440 846 696 744 106.9% Tunbridge Wells Kent 51,339 257 347 347 8.32 12.48 2.57 893 682 682 211 30.9% Cherwell Oxfordshire 66,475 332 592 592 7.22 10.43 2.20 1,305 742 1,142 163 14.3% Oxford Oxfordshire 59,157 296 -120 296 8.44 11.45 2.22 656 749 567 89 15.7% South Oxfordshire Oxfordshire 62,296 311 354 354 9.33 11.60 2.04 723 632 608 115 19.0% Vale of White Horse Oxfordshire 58,669 293 751 751 7.26 9.57 1.93 1,447 679 1,211 236 19.4% West Oxfordshire Oxfordshire 48,920 245 339 339 8.26 10.38 1.93 653 596 1,125 -472 -42.0% Elmbridge Surrey 57,842 289 252 289 12.15 15.88 2.68 774 626 399 375 93.9% Pegasus Group - Planning White Paper - Regional Notes - South East 11

Appendix 1 - New Standard Method for South East LPAs LPA COUNTY DWELLING TOTAL 2019 STOCK 0.5% OF CURRENT STOCK DWELLING 2018 HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS 2020-2030 STEP 1 MEDIAN WORKPLACE BASED HOUSE PRICE INCOME RATIO TO 2009 MEDIAN WORKPLACE BASED HOUSE PRICE INCOME RATIO TO 2019 STEP 2 TO SM ACCORDING CONSULTATION CURRENT SM PLAN ANNUAL LCOAL REQUIREMENT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LP AND NEW SM % CHANGE Surrey 32,566 163 154 163 8.64 16.38 3.71 604 578 579 25 4.3% Surrey 58,490 292 84 292 8.35 12.30 2.51 733 737 562 171 30.4% Surrey 38,772 194 138 194 8.33 13.55 2.90 563 449 453 110 24.2% Reigate and Surrey 60,966 305 416 416 7.84 12.26 2.62 1,091 644 460 631 137.2% Banstead Runnymede Surrey 36,548 183 103 183 7.40 9.85 1.98 361 545 703 -342 -48.6% Spelthorne Surrey 42,866 214 100 214 7.45 10.86 2.28 489 603 603 -114 -18.9% Surrey Heath Surrey 36,435 182 62 182 8.00 11.17 2.24 408 332 332 76 22.9% Tandridge Surrey 36,528 183 199 199 11.02 14.98 2.68 533 648 645 -112 -17.3% Waverley Surrey 53,752 269 198 269 10.29 15.77 3.11 835 681 590 245 41.5% Woking Surrey 42,837 214 65 214 9.49 10.39 1.62 348 431 292 56 19.1% Adur West Sussex 28,508 143 152 152 8.91 11.60 2.15 326 248 177 149 83.9% Arun West Sussex 75,220 376 784 784 8.38 12.72 2.63 2,063 1,326 1,000 1,063 106.3% Chichester West Sussex 57,623 288 482 482 10.18 13.18 2.32 1,120 609 435 685 157.4% Crawley West Sussex 46,159 231 287 287 5.98 9.05 2.08 598 476 340 258 75.8% Horsham West Sussex 63,473 317 759 759 10.05 12.87 2.26 1,715 965 800 915 114.4% Mid Sussex West Sussex 64,455 322 495 495 8.72 13.01 2.64 1,305 1,102 959 346 36.1% Worthing West Sussex 50,821 254 383 383 7.51 10.89 2.28 871 880 200 671 335.7% * Chiltern and South Bucks have a combined target of 763 dwellings per annum. For the purpose of this note, this target has been halved and split between the two local authorities. ** No annual requirement is established through the adopted Local Plan for Medway. 12 Pegasus Group - Planning White Paper - Regional Notes - South East

Key Contacts

Jim Tarzey Jeremy Gardiner Andy Meader Chairman Senior Director - Planning Senior Director - Planning [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] 0203 897 1110 023 8254 2780 01344 203264 07767 686005 07929 788776 07786 080005

Jonathan Walton Nick Kirby Jim Bailey Senior Director – Planning Director – Planning Director - Planning [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] 01344 596923 01344 203267 01344 203268 07768 968030 07826 913030 07798 825984 Contact

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