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Rother Valley Railway Economic Impacts Report

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Rother Valley Railway Economic Impacts Report Report September 2018 Rother Valley Railway Economic Impacts Report Rother Valley Railway Limited Our ref: 22707603 Report September 2018 Rother Valley Railway Economic Impacts Report Prepared by: Prepared for: Steer Rother Valley Railway Limited 28-32 Upper Ground London SE1 9PD +44 20 7910 5000 www.steergroup.com Our ref: 22707603 Steer has prepared this material for Rother Valley Railway Limited. This material may only be used within the context and scope for which Steer has prepared it and may not be relied upon in part or whole by any third party or be used for any other purpose. Any person choosing to use any part of this material without the express and written permission of Steer shall be deemed to confirm their agreement to indemnify Steer for all loss or damage resulting therefrom. Steer has prepared this material using professional practices and procedures using information available to it at the time and as such any new information could alter the validity of the results and conclusions made. Rother Valley Railway Economic Impacts Report | Report Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................. i The Rother Valley Railway ‘Missing Link’ ............................................................................ i Local Economic Context ......................................................................................................ii Transport Impacts – Operational Stage.............................................................................. vi 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1 The Rother Valley Railway ‘Missing Link’ ........................................................................... 1 The Economic Impact Report ............................................................................................. 1 2 Scheme Context and Description ............................................................................... 2 Background & History ......................................................................................................... 2 Scheme Location & Wider Area ......................................................................................... 4 Scheme Description – The ‘Missing Link’ ........................................................................... 7 The Kent and East Sussex Railway (KESR) .......................................................................... 9 3 Description of Scheme Impacts ................................................................................ 13 The Role of Tourism.......................................................................................................... 13 Impacts of the Rother Valley Railway ............................................................................... 15 4 Impacts on the Local Economy ................................................................................. 20 Overview ........................................................................................................................... 20 Current Demand Profile ................................................................................................... 20 Drivers of Additional Visitor Demand ............................................................................... 23 Estimate of Additional Visitor Demand – Summary ......................................................... 31 Economic Benefits of Additional Visitor Demand ............................................................ 33 The KESR Investment Plan ................................................................................................ 37 Additional Volunteer Spend ............................................................................................. 38 Direct Employment Benefits ............................................................................................ 39 Summary of Operational Impacts .................................................................................... 39 Benefits to the Local Economy – Construction Stage ....................................................... 42 Summary of Local Economic Impacts ............................................................................... 42 5 Transport Related Economic Impacts ....................................................................... 45 Overview ........................................................................................................................... 45 September 2018 Rother Valley Railway Economic Impacts Report | Report Level Crossing Impacts ..................................................................................................... 45 Highway Impacts from Change in Car Kilometres Travelled ............................................ 46 National Rail Revenue Impacts ......................................................................................... 51 Summary of Transport Impacts ........................................................................................ 52 6 Assessment of Fit with Policy .................................................................................. 53 VisitEngland Strategic Framework ................................................................................... 53 National Trust Policy from Practice .................................................................................. 54 The South East LEP Growth Deal and Strategic Economic Plan ....................................... 55 East Sussex County Council Plan ...................................................................................... 55 Rother District Core Strategy ........................................................................................... 56 Salehurst and Robertsbridge Neighbourhood Development Plan ................................... 56 Summary........................................................................................................................... 57 7 Conclusions ............................................................................................................. 58 Figures Figure 1-1: Existing and Proposed Rail Links.................................................................................. i Figure 2-1: Route of the Rother Valley Railway in 1900 ............................................................... 3 Figure 2-2: Scheme Location ........................................................................................................ 6 Figure 2-3: Rother Valley Railway ‘Missing Link’ .......................................................................... 8 Figure 2-4: Future Car Parking on the KESR ................................................................................ 12 Figure 3-1: Rother Valley Railway Impacts ................................................................................. 16 Figure 4-1: Economic Impacts ..................................................................................................... 20 Figure 4-2: Origins of 2017 KESR Visitors by Population ............................................................ 22 Figure 4-3: Existing and Future KESR Catchments by Road Travel ............................................. 25 Figure 4-4: 2011 Tourism Expenditures (Multiplier Values) by District in the South East (£m) . 35 Figure 4-5: KESR Demand Profile ................................................................................................ 43 Figure 4-6: Annual Local Economic Benefit (£m, 2018 prices) ................................................... 44 Figure 5-1: Driving Journey Time and Distance to Robertsbridge and Tenterden ..................... 47 September 2018 Rother Valley Railway Economic Impacts Report | Report Tables Table 1-1: Total Local Economic Benefit - Construction Phase plus 10 years of Operation (£m, 2018 prices) .................................................................................................................................. iv Table 1-2: Summary of the Potential Economic Impact of the Rother Valley Railway (2018 prices) ............................................................................................................................................ v Table 1-3: Summary of Highway Transport Impacts .................................................................... vi Table 2-1: Levels of Deprivation by District in East Sussex (2015) ............................................... 4 Table 2-2: Gross Value Added per Head at Current Basic Prices (2016) ...................................... 5 Table 4-1: Top-10 Ticket Sales by Origin Local Authority Population ......................................... 21 Table 4-2: Proportion of KESR Tickets by Origin Region ............................................................. 21 Table 4-3: Population within Road Travel Catchment ................................................................ 23 Table 4-4: New Rail Catchment to KESR ..................................................................................... 26 Table 4-5: Largest ‘Mosaic’ Population Groups in South East London by Population................ 27 Table 4-6: Cost of Travel between London Terminals and Robertsbridge ................................. 28 Table 4-7: Comparable Heritage Railways .................................................................................. 29 Table 4-8: Summary of Additional Visitor Demand arising from the Rother Valley Railway ....
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