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Mindtree Ltd (MINLIM) | 454 Target : | 470 Target Period : 12 Months Potential Upside : 4%

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Mindtree Ltd (MINLIM) | 454 Target : | 470 Target Period : 12 Months Potential Upside : 4% Analyst Meet Update August 22, 2017 Rating matrix Rating : Hold MindTree Ltd (MINLIM) | 454 Target : | 470 Target Period : 12 months Potential Upside : 4% MindTree 3.0 – Focus on digital leadership What’s Changed? We attended MindTree’s (MTL) analyst meet wherein the management Target Unchanged emphasised on how ‘Digital’ is the crux to any business innovation and EPS FY18E Unchanged differentiation. The management highlighted: 1) Developing deep EPS FY19E Unchanged expertise by focusing on select packages as Salesforce, HANA, Adobe. 2) Rating Unchanged elevating the customer experience by modernising the ecosystem & Key Financials processes and harnessing the power of data and 3) continued focus on | Crore FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E improving profitability by consistent revenue growth, stability in top 10 Net Sales 4,673 5,236 5,403 6,229 accounts and operational efficiency. MTL maintains its stance of being EBITDA 821 705 697 903 better placed to capture incremental opportunities given its diverse Net Profit 553 419 441 545 portfolio offerings (digital, IoT, platforms, enterprise services). We keep EPS (|) 32.9 24.9 26.9 33.3 our estimates intact with MTL’s rupee revenue, PAT set to grow at a CAGR of 9.1%, 14.1%, respectively, in FY17-19E with average EBITDA Valuation summary margins of 13.6% in the same period. FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Answering ‘WHAT’ of digital transformation… P/E 13.8 18.2 16.9 13.6 MTL’s management mentioned its business proposition is captured in Target P/E 14.3 18.9 17.5 14.1 answering the ‘What’ of Digital Transformation. MTL’s 3.0 strategy EV / EBITDA 8.8 9.8 10.2 7.7 P/BV 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.0 outlines four aspects to drive change in maintaining digital leadership- 1) RoNW (%) 22.9 16.2 18.8 21.8 Digital packages & platforms (Accelerate growth via leadership in a core RoCE (%) 29.1 21.2 24.2 28.1 set of winning packaged applications) 2) Focused innovation for run & grow (investing in bi-modal sales, delivery and operating model), 3) humane automation (balancing automation with talent transformation), 4) Stock data consulting first (driving competitive business advantage by building Particular Amount consulting capability). Riding on the digital wave, MTL’s digital revenues Market Capitalization (| Crore) 7,623.8 Total Debt (| Crore) 99.1 contribution rose to ~40% at end of FY17 (vs. 32.5% in FY15) and grew at Cash and Investments (| Crore) 837.7 a CAGR of 27.8% in FY15-17. The management also highlighted that EV (| Crore) 7,153.9 elevating the customer experience has become one of the priority areas 52 week H/L 579 / 400 to shape business models and processes and expects it to overtake price Equity capital 168.0 and product as key brand differentiation by 2020 with 50% organisations Face value | 10 redirecting their investments to customer experience innovations. Management foresees margin improvement in medium to long term… Price performance (%) MTL witnessed sharp reduction in EBITDA margin from 19.9%in FY15 to 1M 3M 6M 12M 11.1% in Q1FY18. Going ahead, the management emphasised that it is TechMahindra 2.8 (9.2) (17.0) (19.5) optimistic on improving margins from current levels by way of 1) MindTree (9.4) (8.9) 1.8 (19.8) improvement in its acquired entities, 2) building momentum in its new KPIT Tech (17.9) (14.4) (16.2) (11.2) NIIT Tech (12.4) (8.2) 14.7 17.5 solutions in market, 3) moderating pricing pressure on certain traditional services, 4) stability in top 10 accounts growth and 5) operational efficiency led by levers as utilisation and onsite-offshore mix especially in digital space where currently major component happens on onsite model due to small ticket size of project and efforts are relatively higher than traditional services business. They indicated that they could focus more Research Analyst on offshore component in the digital space once the ticket size improves Deepak Purswani, CFA which would also act as key layer in the margin. However, recouping the [email protected] entire EBITDA margin would play out only in medium term and would not happen in next 2-3 quarters. Deepti Tayal Estimates intact; maintain HOLD… [email protected] We keep our estimates intact with MTL’s rupee revenue, PAT set to grow at a CAGR of 9.1%, 14.1%, respectively, in FY17-19E with average EBITDA margins of 13.6% in the same period. We are optimistic on its journey to digital transformation and strong order-book led by good digital TCV. However, near term volatility in its acquired entities Bluefin, Magnet 360 and pressure at the margin level led us to maintain our HOLD recommendation on the stock with a target price of | 470 per share. ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Financial summary Profit and loss statement | Crore Cash flow statement | Crore FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Total Revenues 4,673 5,236 5,403 6,229 Net profit before Tax 723 555 580 718 Growth (%) 31.2 12.1 3.2 15.3 Depreciation 166 186 189 218 COGS 2,799 3,413 3,517 4,018 (inc)/dec in Current Assets (286) 146 (102) (207) Other Expenses 1,053 1,119 1,189 1,308 (inc)/dec in current Liabilities 34 (24) 17 69 EBITDA 821 705 697 903 CF from operations 421 654 467 606 Growth (%) 15.8 (14.2) (1.1) 29.6 Other Investments (294) (369) 91 52 Depreciation 166 186 189 218 (Purchase)/Sale of Fixed Assets (132) (85) (90) (104) Other Income 84 55 91 52 CF from investing Activities (426) (453) 1 (52) Interest paid 16 19 19 19 Inc / (Dec) in Equity Capital 2 1 - - PBT before Exceptional Items 723 555 580 718 Inc / (Dec) in sec.loan Funds 41 55 - - PBT 723 555 580 718 Dividend & Dividend tax (215) (193) (394) (394) Growth (%) 4.7 (23.2) 4.5 23.7 Interest Paid on Loans (0) (0) (19) (19) Total Tax 171 136 139 172 CF from Financial Activities (172) (138) (683) (413) PAT before MI 553 419 441 545 Cash generating during the year (167) 57 (214) 141 Minority Int & Pft. from associate - - - - Opening cash balance 378 194 251 37 PAT 553 419 441 545 Exchange rate differences 9 (6) - - EPS - diluted 32.9 24.9 26.9 33.3 Closing cash 233 251 37 177 EPS (Growth %) 2.9 (24.2) 8.1 23.7 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Balance sheet | Crore Key ratios FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E (Year-end March) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Equity 168 168 164 164 Per share data (|) Reserves & Surplus 2,247 2,409 2,182 2,333 Adjusted EPS (Diluted) 32.9 24.9 26.9 33.3 Networth 2,415 2,577 2,345 2,497 BV per share 143.7 153.3 143.2 152.5 Minority Interest - - - - DPS 16.0 10.0 5.0 5.0 Total Debt 43 99 99 99 Cash per Share 13.9 14.9 2.2 10.8 Other long term liabilities 86 30 30 30 Operating Ratios EBITDA Margin (%) 17.6 13.5 12.9 14.5 Source of funds 2,544 2,706 2,475 2,626 PBT Margin (%) 15.5 10.6 10.7 11.5 PAT Margin (%) 11.8 8.0 8.2 8.8 Net Block 417 381 279 151 Debtor days 76 62 67 69 CWIP 23 19 19 19 Creditor days 15 12 11 11 Other intangible assets&Goodwill 745 641 641 641 Return Ratios (%) Other long term assets 264 288 288 288 RoE 22.9 16.2 18.8 21.8 Current investments 227 587 587 587 RoCE 29.1 21.2 24.2 28.1 Debtors 973 896 995 1,185 RoIC 61.9 56.0 55.9 74.6 Cash & Cash equivalents 233 251 37 177 Valuation Ratios (x) Loans and advances 4 1 1 1 P/E 13.8 18.2 16.9 13.6 Other Current Assets(OCA) 391 326 329 345 EV / EBITDA 8.8 9.8 10.2 7.7 Trade payables 189 165 169 194 Price to Book Value 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.0 Other Current liabilities 415 408 419 444 EV / Net Sales 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.1 Provisions 129 111 114 131 Market Cap / Sales 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 Solvency Ratios Application of funds 2,544 2,706 2,475 2,626 Debt/EBITDA 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Debt / Equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Current Ratio 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.0 Quick Ratio 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.0 . Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2 RATING RATIONALE ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction; Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-10%; Sell: -10% or more; Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected] ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093 [email protected] ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 3 ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Deepak Purswani, CFA MBA (Finance), Deepti Tayal, MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities.
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