Asia COVID-19 & Vaccine Tracker

19 March 2021

Free to View Asia COVID-19 & Vaccine Tracker Economics - Asia

Bumps on the road

 The suspension of AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccinations across Noelan Arbis Economist Europe puts policymakers in Asia in a difficult position The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

 Many economies have received doses of the vaccine and have Noelan Arbis decided to push ahead with vaccination programmes Economist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited  Meanwhile, India, the Philippines, and Hong Kong have seen a Noelan Arbis spike in new COVID-19 cases over the past week Economist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Bumps on the road

The decision by many European countries to suspend the use of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine presents a dilemma for policymakers in Asia. Much of the region is reliant on this vaccine, given its wider availability and cheaper procurement relative to other Western vaccines. Data show that about 32% of confirmed doses in Asia-Pacific are the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine, which is the highest percentage amongst all vaccine providers (Pfizer is second at 29%). Some economies are also more reliant than others on the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine. Nearly 100% of Thailand and Bangladesh’s confirmed vaccine orders are for the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine. It also comprises over one-third of Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and Vietnam’s confirmed doses. A fork in the road Given Asia’s reliance on the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine, many policymakers in the region are deciding to push ahead with vaccinations despite the pause in Europe. Australia, Bangladesh, and Vietnam all have received their first batches of the vaccine and have decided to continue the roll-out. Taiwan has also recently received its first batch of the AstraZeneca vaccine and is scheduled to begin inoculations on 22 March. Thailand temporarily suspended the use of the vaccine last week; however, on Tuesday, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha received his first dose in an effort to boost the public’s confidence in the vaccine. Defying the regional trend, Indonesia is delaying the administration of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine as it awaits a review from the WHO. Case numbers spike New COVID-19 cases continue to decline across the region, but cases have spiked in several economies over the past week. India reported over 35,000 new cases on 18 March, which is its highest daily tally since the start of 2021. Hong Kong’s case also rose over the past week but are now on a downtrend (Chart 11). Perhaps the most worrying development is in the Philippines, where daily new cases have ballooned to the highest level in over six months. On 13 March, the Philippines detected the first case with a highly contagious coronavirus variant first identified in Brazil. The country has also seen rising infections with the UK and South African variants. Moreover, the Philippines confirmed its own new strain, believed to be highly infectious (Nikkei Asia, 17 March 2021). The government has re-imposed lockdown measures in targeted areas, including a two-week night-time curfew across Metro Manila.

This is a redacted version of a report by the same title published on 19-Mar-21. Please contact your HSBC representative or email AskResearch@hsbc.com for more information.

Disclosures & Disclaimer Issuer of report: The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Research at: https://www.research.hsbc.com

Free to View ● Economics - Asia 19 March 2021

Asia COVID-19 and Vaccine Tracker

Chart 1: Total confirmed vaccine doses by economy and territory (% of population)

% of population 300

250 Many economies in the region are relying on the 200 AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine 150

100

0 AU NZ HK JN SK SG MA TA TH ID PH VN BA IN *CH Oxford-AstraZ Pfizer Janssen (J &J) Moderna Sinovac Novavax Gamaleya Research CanSino Biologics Bharat Biotech

Note: *CH – mainland China. Duke University's data do not include domestic supply for mainland China, as this information has not been made publicly available. Source: Duke University Health Innovation Center, HSBC

Chart 2: Vaccinations administered in Asia (per 100 persons)

10.0 9.39 Most economies have started 9.0 their vaccination 8.0 programmes; Taiwan is the 7.0 last economy to begin 6.0 vaccinations 5.0 4.51 3.61 4.0 3.06 2.78 3.0 2.09 1.63 2.0 1.21 0.99 0.62 0.37 1.0 0.28 0.20 0.06 0.02 0.0 SI *CH SL HK BA IN ID KR MA AU NZ JN PH TH VN TA

Note: *CH – mainland China. Source: Our World in Data, HSBC

Chart 3: Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases per 1 million population

Confirmed COVID-19 cases No of confirmed cases % (per 1 million people) in Asia 100,000 6.0 remain far below those in 90,000 5.0 Western economies 80,000 70,000 4.0 60,000 50,000 3.0 40,000 30,000 2.0 20,000 1.0 10,000 0 0.0 US UK SG MA IN PH ID SL JN BA SK HK AU NZ TH CH TA VN Cases per mn Mortality rate

Note: *CH – mainland China. Source: CEIC, HSBC

Free to View ● Economics - Asia 19 March 2021

COVID-19 in Asia

Chart 4: Indonesia Chart 5: Malaysia COVID-19 cases in Indonesia Confirmed cases Malay sia Daily change and Malaysia have now Confirmed cases Indonesia Daily change 1,600,000 30,000 350,000 7,000 moderated from their peaks 1,400,000 25,000 300,000 6,000 1,200,000 250,000 5,000 20,000 1,000,000 200,000 4,000 800,000 15,000 150,000 3,000 600,000 10,000 400,000 100,000 2,000 5,000 200,000 50,000 1,000 0 0 0 0 Feb-20 May-10 Jul-29 Oct-17 Jan-05 Feb-20 May-10 Jul-29 Oct-17 Jan-05 Daily change (RHS) Number of confirmed cases Daily change (RHS) Number of confirmed cases