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Weekly Market View Macro Strategy | 11 September 2020 Weekly Market View Konnichiwa Mr. Powell The Fed’s policy meeting on 15-16 September and ongoing talks towards another US fiscal package are key focus areas for investors. A further pullback in risk assets is likely to put pressure on policymakers to ease further. We stay buyers of risk assets on dips. Equities: We continue to prefer Quality and Growth equities over Value stocks, despite significant underperformance of Value in recent years, in the absence of a counter-trend catalyst Bonds: We view the correction in Developed Market High Yield bonds as an opportunity to add exposure as their yield premiums compensate investors against likely default risks FX: GBP/USD has strong support around 1.27; we remain medium-term bullish and view any dip due to Brexit- related volatility as an opportunity to add exposure to GBP Also find out... Will the Fed come to the Are energy equities a buy Will gold and gold sector rescue of markets? after the recent decline in oil equities continue to shine? prices? This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix. Standard Chartered Bank weekly market view | 11 September 2020 Charts of the week: Will the Fed come to the rescue? A Democrat ‘clean sweep’ in the US is a key event risk; the US market pullback, if sustained, raises the chance of more Fed easing Odds* of Biden win over Trump and Democrat win over Republicans in Euro area stocks have remained stable, while US equities corrected the Senate and House of Representatives have risen lately from overbought conditions, especially in the technology sector 90 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,500 80 3,200 3,200 70 2,900 Index Index 2,800 2,600 60 2,400 2,300 50 2,000 2,000 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Aug-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Biden Odds Senate - Democrat Odds House - Democrat Odds Euro Stoxx 50 S&P500 index (RHS) Source: Bloomberg, *PredictIt odds, Standard Chartered Editorial Equities and commodities continued to pull back in the past week, while bonds joined the drawdown; USD rose Konnichiwa Mr. Powell Benchmark market performance w/w* Global policymaking has changed beyond recognition since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Developed Market governments are running Cash 0.01 record budget deficits while central banks loosen their monetary policy Equities -2.34 spigots to accommodate the spending. Perhaps the best example of how Bonds -0.42 much has changed came from the US central bank – last month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed a much-heralded policy shift, setting the Commodities -1.12 stage for a looser-for-longer monetary policy. We believe the past week’s USD Index 0.64 market pullback, if sustained, could cause the Fed to act to ease policy Asian FX -0.08 further, possibly as soon as its 15-16 September policy meeting. -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 Powell’s Fed is reframing its policy objectives: From now, the Fed will try % to engender an average 2% inflation rate over an unspecified timeframe, Source: Bloomberg; *Week of 04 Sept. 2020 to 10 Sept. 2020 instead of treating the 2% target as a ceiling. It will also focus on Our proprietary market diversity indicator points to maximising employment without unduly worrying about inflation until reduced risk of a short-term trend reversal at this time prices rise sustainably. This change, in our view, has three implications: Market diversity across key asset classes 1) Fed interest rates are likely to stay near 0% for years, as inflation is Diversity trend Fractal Level 1 Diversity since 10-Aug-20Dimension unlikely to rise sustainably above 2% due to a huge economic slack; Global Bonds ◐ 1.33 2) the Fed will likely need to stimulate further to achieve the average MSCI ACWI ● 1.51 inflation target, perhaps by buying longer-maturity bonds or through Gold ◐ 1.34 forward guidance. If required, it is likely to cap the yield premium on long Equity MSCI US ● 1.52 maturity over short maturity Treasury bonds (i.e. “yield curve control”); MSCI Europe ● 2.51 3) bond yields are likely to stay below long-term inflation expectations. MSCI AC AXJ ◐ 1.45 Fixed Income We have seen the above script play out before - in Japan, which has DM Corp Bond ◐ 1.33 seen similar monetary conditions over the past three decades. DM High Yield ◐ 1.41 Our main investment conclusion from the above is that the policy settings EM USD ◐ 1.39 are likely to be most supportive for risk assets, such as equities and HY EM Local Currency ● 1.82 Asia Hard Currency ◐ 1.31 and EM bonds, while being bearish for the USD and bullish for gold. Currencies What could upset this view? 1) A delay by the US Congress in agreeing USD/CNY ◐ 1.34 on another fiscal stimulus; 2) Democrats heading for a ‘clean sweep’ in EUR/USD ◐ 1.39 the US elections, raising the spectre of higher taxes; 3) President Trump, USD/JPY ● 1.72 GBP/USD ● 1.57 trailing in the polls, turning the heat up on China; and 4) another COVID- AUD/USD 1.43 ◐ 19 wave slowing the economic and earnings recovery. Our base case Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered; Fractal dimensions below remains that policymakers will act if markets revolt following any of these 1.25 indicate extremely low market diversity events. Thus, we stay buyers of risk assets on dips (see pages 4-8). Legend: Very low Low Moderate/high ○ ◐ ● This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group 2 Standard Chartered Bank weekly market view | 11 September 2020 The weekly macro balance sheet Positive for risk assets Negative for risk assets New COVID-19 cases continued to decline in the US, but rose to record highs in parts of Europe and in India • Daily new COVID-19 cases in the • Daily new cases continued US fell for the second month after to rise in Europe; Spain and Daily new COVID-19 cases per million people in the US, key peaking in mid-July; cases in France hit new record highs; European markets and India Japan and Australia continued to India hit a new record high 210 decline; Brazil cases appear to • UK firm AstraZeneca halted 180 19 have peaked - vaccine trials after an 150 • New York allowed restaurants to adverse reaction in a re-open indoor dining at 25% participant 120 COVID capacity from 30 September, • UK re-imposed restrictions 90 ending a six-month ban on social gatherings 60 Our assessment: Neutral, on balance, as continued downtrend in Newcasess (permillion) 30 US cases is offset by a continued rise of cases in Europe. 0 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 • US job creation in August • US continuing jobless claims France Germany India exceeded expectations, with rose above estimates, rising Spain UK US unemployment rate falling to 8.4% for the first time in 7 weeks • US business optimism rose above • German industrial output Source: Our World in Data, Standard Chartered long-term average in August rose less than expected, • Euro area Sentix investor factory orders fell below confidence rose for the fifth month estimates and export growth in September to its highest since slowed in July, underlining February, beating estimates challenges in sustaining the US job creation exceeded expectations in August, Q2 rebound • China’s exports beat expectations driving the unemployment rate lower, but the pace of • Fitch cut its India growth Macro data in August, rising 9.5% y/y new jobs slowed forecast for current fiscal • ECB raised Euro area 2020 US net new non-farm jobs and unemployment rate year to -10.5% contraction growth forecast to -8.0% from 15 10,000 -8.7% estimated earlier from -5% forecast in June 5,000 Our assessment: Neutral, on balance, as stronger-than-expected 12 0 US job market in August and China export indicators were offset 9 by surprisingly weak data from Europe. -5,000 % -10,000 • A US Republican stimulus 6 bill worth a third of what the -15,000 3 '000spayrollsin Democrats proposed failed -20,000 Changenonfarmin to pass the House 0 -25,000 • The ECB left stimulus Jan-19 Jun-19 Nov-19 Apr-20 Sep-20 measures unchanged, US unemployment rate seasonally adjusted disappointing expectations Change in nonfarm payrolls in '000s (RHS) Our assessment: Negative, on balance, amid a delay in another Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Policy developments US fiscal package and disappointing ECB policy guidance. • China’s President Xi said the • US President Trump said he country is committed to “opening plans to decouple from up and cooperating in services China’s economy by taxing industries” firms manufacturing outside Germany’s industrial sector recovery has slowed after the US and barring Federal the Q2 rebound, with output, orders and exports well contracts for firms doing below year-earlier levels business with China German industrial productions, factory orders and exports • Media reports said the US is 10 considering blacklisting a Chinese chipmaker due to its 0 links with the military -10 • EU threatened penalties Other developments after the UK said it plans to % y/y -20 rewrite the legally-binding -30 Brexit deal signed last year -40 Our assessment: US-China tensions and Brexit talks remain risks. Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 German manufacturing orders y/y Our weekly net assessment: On balance, this week’s data and policy were negative.
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