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G 夏利（000927.Sz） 目标价格 Rmb

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G 夏利（000927.Sz） 目标价格 Rmb 公司动态 我们真心为您奉献价值 投资评级 大市同步 维持 G 夏利（000927.SZ） 目标价格 RMB 当前价格 RMB 3.88 一汽丰田决定盈利性，市场定价相对合理 报告日期 2006-08-22 数据与预测 至 12 月 31 日（人民币 百万元） 2005A 2006E 2007E 首席行业分析师 主营收入 7,105.07 8,351.06 9,436.70 年增长率（%） 28.33 17.54 13.00 谢曙光 净利润 260.13 397.57 532.80 Tel 86 21 65079525 年增长率（%） 794.09 52.84 34.01 Email [email protected] 每股收益（元） 0.16 0.25 0.33 （ ） 行业 PER X 23.79 15.57 11.62 汽车行业——汽车制造行业 动态事项 基础数据（06Q2） 公司发布 06 年中期财务报告。06 年上半年，公司销售轿车 105,947 辆，同比增长 8.39%； 12mth A 股价格区间（元） 7.08/2.76 总股本（百万股） 1,595.17 实现主营业务收入和净利润分别为 423,297.68 万元和 19,583.13 万元，同比分别增长 总市值（百万元） 6,189.26 23.14%和 223.25%；半年度 EPS 为 0.123 元。 无限售 A 股（百万股） 326.13 每股净资产（元） 1.98 公司影响 PBR（X） 1.96 DPS（Y05，元） 0.00 06Q2 轿车销量增长较慢但产品结构优化调整。上半年，公司轿车总体销量增长较慢，增幅 远低于同期行业水平，但产品结构朝向较高价格层次优化调整。与上年同期相比，价格区 主要股东（06Q2） 间在 3-5 万元的夏利品牌轿车销量略有下降；随着 1.6L 威乐轿车投放市场，6-8 万元的威 中国第一汽车集团公司 47.73% 乐品牌轿车销量高速增长；而 万元的威姿品牌轿车月销量相对稳定，增幅尚可。在 天津汽车工业（集团） 31.82% 7-8 7 有限公司 月全国汽车行业销售形势明显回落的环境中，公司夏利和威姿品牌轿车单月销量大幅下降， 通乾证券投资基金 2.78% 但威乐品牌轿车单月销量逆势创出一年多来的新高。今年以来，公司产品结构朝向较高价 格层次的优化调整，有助于综合毛利率保持相对稳定。 收入结构（06Q2） 轿车销售 93.60% 表 1：06 年上半年 G 夏利分品牌轿车销量增长情况，单位：辆 累计销量增长 品牌 夏利 威乐 威姿 合计 其他销售 6.29% \ 销量 93794 10470 1682 105946 1-6 月 增长率 -1.96% 219.69% 23.49% 5.63% 报告编号：XSG06-CT07 销量 103061 13812 1856 118729 1-7 月 相关报告：XSG06-IT01 增长率 -4.96% 265.88% 12.96% 4.28% 资料来源:中国汽车工业协会 06Q2 本部利润与投资收益双双大幅增长。通过大力开展采购降成本和新产品上市工作，基 于成本费用控制与产品结构调整的双重推动，上半年公司在收入增长 23.14%的情况下，营 业利润增长 167.17%，本部净利润增长 92.48%。随着一汽丰田的轿车销量增长 91.42%， 最近 6 个月股价与沪深 300 指数比较 公司持股 30%的一汽丰田贡献的投资收益增长 282.45%。此二者共同推动公司上半年净利 润增长 223.25%，达到 19,583 万元。 本部盈利能力有所改善，投资收益提升净利率。表 2 显示，06Q2 成本率同比下降 3.71 个 百分点，与上年全年相比下降 2.40 个百分点，毛利率水平相应上升，这主要是公司采购成 本节约和产品结构优化的结果；公司三费率上升较大的主要原因是去年收购天汽集团的销 上海证券研发中心 Page 1 公司动态 售子公司所致；在上年同期尚未合并销售公司报表的情况下，公司营业费用率同比改善较 为显著；在主要来自一汽丰田的投资收益大幅增长的提升下，公司净利率显著提升。不难 看出，从营业利润率指标变化来看，公司本部的盈利能力有所改善；随着投资收益对净利 润贡献的提升，公司净利率相应提升。 表 2：06 年上半年 G 夏利盈利能力分析 06Q2 05Q2 05Q4 06Q2/05Q2 增减 06Q2/05Q4 增减 成本率 83.74% 87.45% 86.14% -3.71% -2.40% 毛利率 16.26% 12.55% 13.86% 3.71% 2.40% 三费率 12.07% 8.93% 8.77% 3.14% 3.30% 营业利润率 0.66% 0.31% 1.04% 0.35% -0.38% 投资收益净利比 83.59% 72.73% 80.05% 10.87% 3.54% 净利率 4.63% 1.76% 3.66% 2.87% 0.97% 资料来源:公司数据。 预计 9 月正式上市全新车型“威志”轿车。公司预计 06 年 9 月将正式向市场投放自主研发 的全新车型“威志”轿车。据了解，该品牌轿车将沿着公司现有产品价格线向上延伸，估 计在 7-9 万元区间，将进一步丰富公司产品系列，如果定价合理营销得当，将有助于推进 公司产品结构的进一步优化，并可能成为公司新的利润增长点。 估值影响 预计 06 年业绩有望预增，07 年利润实现较快成长。我们预计 06-07 年公司轿车销售增长 率分别为 4.5%和 12%左右，在结构优化基础上整车毛利率分别维持在 15.50%和 15%左右， 主营业务收入将分别增长 17.54%和 13%，达到 83.51 亿元和 94.37 亿元左右；投资收益 分别达到 3.48 亿元和 4.79 亿元；净利润将分别增长 52.84%和 34.01%，达到 3.97 亿元和 5.33 亿元左右。 市场估值合理，评级大市同步。预计 06-07 年公司 EPS 分别为 0.25 元和 0.33 元，动态 PER 分别为 15.57 倍和 11.62 倍，据此与国内外市场均值相比，公司估值相对合理（附表 2）。然而，如果剔除主要来自一汽丰田的投资收益部分，05 年公司本部 EPS 仅为 0.02 元， 06-07 本部预期 EPS 亦均为 0.03 元，以 15 倍 PER 定价，对应股价为 0.45 元。考虑公司 持有一汽丰田 30%股权的价值，预计 06 年一汽丰田盈利 12.20 亿元，给予其 15 倍 PER 定价，其对应市场价值为 183 亿元左右，公司持股 30%对应的市场价值为 55 亿元左右， 体现于公司的每股平均市场价值为 3.44 元左右。二者加总，考虑 06 年公司的投资收益预 期和盈利预期，当前公司相对合理价格在 3.89 元左右。以 PBR 作为估值标准来看，目前 公司 PBR 为 1.96，高于国内市场、香港市场和欧洲市场行业均值水平，与美国市场和日本 市场行业均值水平相当，但低于印度市场行业均值水平（附表 2）。总体上，以 PBR 定价 来看，目前公司估值相对合理。因此，我们给予 G 夏利的投资评级为： 未来六个月内，大市同步。 上海证券研发中心 Page 2 公司动态 附表 1：06-07 年 G 夏利盈利预测，单位：百万元人民币 项 目 2005A 2006E 2007E 主营业务收入 7,105.07 8,351.06 9,436.70 减：主营业务成本 6,120.35 7,064.58 8,004.21 主营业务税金及附加 293.64 308.99 358.59 主营业务利润 691.08 977.49 1,073.90 加：其他业务利润 6.61 10.00 12.00 减：营业费用 122.46 425.90 471.84 管理费用 403.70 434.26 481.27 财务费用 97.60 83.51 75.49 营业利润 73.93 43.82 57.30 加：投资收益 208.12 347.84 479.24 补贴收入 9.37 5.00 6.00 营业外收入 1.30 8.00 0.00 减：营业外支出 38.56 3.00 0.00 利润总额 260.79 401.66 542.54 减：所得税 0.65 4.09 9.74 净利润 260.13 397.57 532.80 06Q2 总股本（百万股） 1595.17 1595.17 1595.17 EPS（元） 0.163 0.249 0.334 数据来源：上海证券研发中心。 附表 2：G 夏利国内外市场相对估值比较 Aug-22-06 EPS PER PBR ADY ASGR Company name Code Curr. Close price 05A 06E 07E 05X 06X 07X mrq 06E G 夏利 000927.SZ CNY 3.88 0.16 0.25 0.33 23.80 15.58 11.62 1.96 0.00% G 江汽 600418.SS CNY 3.93 0.55 0.59 0.80 7.19 6.67 4.91 1.24 3.82% G 上汽 600104.SS CNY 4.93 0.34 0.33 0.39 14.63 15.03 12.64 1.41 5.07% Y03 G 长安 000625.SZ CNY 4.84 0.15 0.40 0.49 32.27 12.10 9.88 1.09 1.24% 75.28% G 轿车 000800.SZ CNY 3.11 0.21 0.22 0.27 15.00 13.86 11.39 0.92 6.43% Y04 东风汽车 600006.SS CNY 3.31 0.20 0.19 0.22 16.80 17.33 15.25 1.43 2.42% 15.50% G 江铃 000550.SZ CNY 9.51 0.57 0.83 0.95 16.68 11.47 9.98 2.87 2.10% Y05 G 金龙 600686.SS CNY 10.37 0.68 0.66 0.82 19.83 15.71 12.65 3.56 1.45% 12.07% G 宇通 600066.SS CNY 8.10 0.70 0.57 0.68 17.36 14.18 12.00 2.97 6.17% Y06H1 G 安凯 000868.SZ CNY 2.78 0.07 0.10 0.11 39.15 27.80 24.82 1.28 2.16% 28.90% G 福田 600166.SS CNY 2.52 -0.65 0.05 0.10 -3.88 47.01 24.21 1.52 0.00% G 曙光 600303.SS CNY 7.22 0.54 0.60 0.66 13.44 12.08 10.99 1.67 2.08% G 重汽 000951.SZ CNY 11.68 0.59 0.73 0.85 19.80 16.00 13.74 4.72 0.00% Mean China Industry 17.08 15.58 12.12 1.80 2.24% Brilliance Chi 01114.HK HKD 1.19 -0.177 0.050 0.070 -6.72 23.80 17.00 0.63 0.00% Qingling Motors 01122.HK HKD 1.08 0.016 0.030 0.040 68.35 36.00 27.00 0.41 1.85% Greatwall Motors 02333.HK HKD 5.15 0.470 0.530 0.600 10.96 9.72 8.58 1.35 2.33% Denway Motors 00203.HK HKD 2.53 0.253 0.280 0.290 10.00 9.04 8.72 2.50 3.95% Avi China 02357.HK HKD 0.65 0.025 0.028 0.030 26.00 23.21 21.67 0.62 1.54% Geely Auto 00175.HK HKD 0.81 0.027 0.040 0.060 30.11 20.25 13.50 4.26 1.23% Dongfeng Group 00489.HK HKD 2.92 0.259 0.265 0.295 11.29 11.02 9.90 2.26 1.37% Mudan Auto 08188.HK HKD 0.35 -0.010 -0.090 0.010 -36.32 -3.83 34.50 0.29 0.00% Mean Hongkong Industry 21.43 19.01 19.69 1.54 1.53% 上海证券研发中心 Page 3 公司动态 Y03 Maruti Udyog MRTI.NS INR 833.00 41.16 51.65 59.70 20.24 16.13 13.95 4.90 0.54% 29.44% Tata Motors TAMO.NS INR 845.35 38.20 47.10 54.60 22.13 17.95 15.48 7.03 1.83% Y04 Mahindra & Mahindra MAHM.NS INR 659.75 26.37 34.20 37.90 25.02 19.29 17.41 7.24 1.66% 18.72% Ashok Leyland ASOK.NS INR 39.55 2.58 2.97 3.31 15.33 13.32 11.95 3.90 3.54% Y05 Hindustan Motors HMTR.NS INR 38.65 3.63 -3.15 2.50 10.65 -12.27 15.46 — 0.00% 13.00% Bajaj Auto BJAT.NS INR 2759.80 111.00 135.50 166.70 24.86 20.37 16.56 6.75 1.65% Y06H1 Eicher Motors EICH.NS INR 233.00 77.20 21.80 25.60 3.02 10.69 9.10 2.47 1.72% 25.99% Mean India Industry 18.43 16.29 14.27 5.38 1.82% Hyundai Mobis 012330.KS KRW 86600 9740 9904 11207 8.89 8.74 7.73 3.13 1.85% Hyundai Motor 005380.KS KRW 78400 10599 8045 9484 7.40 9.75 8.27 1.60 1.66% Kia Motors 000270.KS KRW 15700 1964 1386 1922 7.99 11.33 8.17 1.10 2.23% Ssangyong Motor 003620.KS KRW 4325 -856 468 535 -5.05 9.24 8.09 0.61 0.00% Mean S.
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