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江淮汽车（600418.Ss） 目标价格 Rmb 7.70 调高

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江淮汽车（600418.Ss） 目标价格 Rmb 7.70 调高 公司动态 我们真心为您奉献价值 投资评级 大市同步 调降 江淮汽车（600418.SS） 目标价格 RMB 7.70 调高 当前价格 RMB 6.87 轿车项目获批加速公司战略转型 报告日期 2007-02-01 数据与预测 至 12 月 31 日（人民币 百万元） 2005A 2006E 2007E 首席分析师 主营收入 9,394.66 10,467.19 13,046.11 年增长率（%） 16.43 11.42 24.64 谢曙光 净利润 497.75 473.28 511.93 Tel 86 21 65079525 年增长率（%） 54.85 -4.92 8.17 Email [email protected] 每股收益（元） 0.55 0.52 0.56 （ ） 行业 PER X 12.61 13.27 12.27 汽车行业——汽车制造行业 动态事项 基础数据（06Q3） ¾ 公司发布轿车项目获批公告。07 年 2 月 1 日，江淮汽车发布关于公司获得国家发改委关 12mth A 股价格区间（元） 7.73/3.25 总股本（百万股） 913.95 于轿车项目核准批复（发改工业[2007]159 号）的公告。 总市值（百万元） 6,278.84 无限售 A 股（百万股） 658.35 公司影响 每股净资产（元） 3.25 ¾ 轿车项目获批属于意料之中。1 月 17 日，国家发改委正式批准公司轿车项目。《国家发展 PBR（X） 2.11 DPS（Y05，元） 0.16 改革委关于安徽江淮汽车股份有限公司轿车项目核准的批复》，充分表明公司符合当前国 家汽车产业发展政策的基本原则和跨类别生产轿车的基本条件，使得公司乘用车转型战略 变得清晰确定。而近年来围绕轿车产品的产销准备基本就绪，使得公司在获得轿车生产资 主要股东（06Q3） 格的当期即可全面启动轿车产品生产与销售。 江淮汽车集团有限公司 29.81% ¾ 首批轿车产品定位 C 级车型。根据我们的持续跟踪，公司首批投放市场的轿车产品定位于 新加坡豪登投资公司 7.24% 排量 2.0L 和 2.4L 的 C 级车，寄望顺应 07-08 年国内轿车消费升级的中高级化趋势而图谋 全国社保基金 106 组合 1.31% 成功。我们认为，07-08 年国内轿车消费升级将呈现中高级化趋势，公司若采取差异化竞争 收入结构（06Q3） 性价格策略推进轿车项目运作，以其精于产品品质锤炼和市场营销推广的经营经验，轿车 整车 86.73% 项目成功的概率是相当高的。 客车底盘 12.28% ¾ “天时地利人和”助推公司战略转型。当前国家鼓励自主创新和扶持自主品牌的政策环境， 作为安徽省“十一五”期间汽车工业发展的重点项目，与公司全方位资源集中于轿车项目， 报告编号：XSG07-CT01 都将有利于公司比较顺利地推进以轿车为核心的战略性转型过程。公司轿车项目获批，标 相关报告：XSG06-CT10 志着中国自主品牌轿车领域又加入了一支富有竞争活力的新兴力量，也奠定了公司朝向大 XSG06-CT08 型全系列汽车产品制造商演进的关键基石。 XSG06- MIT03 估值影响 最近 6 个月股价与沪深 300 指数比较 ¾ 调降 06-07 年经营业绩预测。根据公司披露数据，06 年公司汽车产品销量达到 17.16 万辆， 增长 13.65%。考虑到公司产品销售数量与结构略微低于预期的变化，相对于前期报告 XSG06-CT02 关于公司 06-07 年经营业绩预测值，我们调降公司收入与利润预测数据，预 计 06-07 年公司主营业务收入将分别增长 11%和 25%左右，达到 104 亿元和 130 亿元左右； 净利润将分别下降 5%和增长 8%左右，达到 4.73 亿元和 5.12 亿元左右。 上海证券研发中心 Page 1 公司动态 ¾ 目前市场估值基本合理，调降投资评级为大市同步。预计 06-07 年公司 EPS 分别为 0.52 元和 0.56 元，动态 PER 分别为 13.27 倍和 12.27 倍。相对于前期报告 XSG06-CT02 的目 标价 7.00 元/股，目前公司股价已经实现我们预期的目标价格。附表 2 国内外市场相对估值 比较显示，目前江淮汽车股票定价偏低。考虑当前中国 A 股汽车公司平均 18 倍左右 PER 定价，基于目前公司在国内的行业地位不强、06 年业绩略微下滑和 07 年业绩低增长预期 以及轿车项目的不确定性等因素，给予公司 15 倍左右 PER 定价是可接受的。按 15 倍 PER 以 06 年预期业绩计公司股价定位应在 7.70 元左右。我们认为，如果 07 年下半年公司轿车 产品正式上市后市场销售表现良好，则较大改善公司利润增长前景，则公司将因“自主溢 价”而获得显著高的 PER 定价。因此，相对于目前股价水平，我们调降江淮汽车的投资评 级： 未来六个月内，大市同步；目标价格为 7.70 元/股。 附表 1：06-07 年江淮汽车盈利预测，单位：百万元人民币 项 目 2005A 2006E 2007E 主营业务收入 9,394.66 10,467.19 13,046.11 减：主营业务成本 7,719.11 8,820.32 10,990.90 主营业务税金及附加 227.25 261.68 313.11 主营业务利润 1,448.30 1,385.18 1,742.10 加：其他业务利润 68.06 83.74 117.41 减：营业费用 495.68 427.06 553.16 管理费用 461.31 502.42 665.35 财务费用 2.66 10.47 58.71 营业利润 556.71 528.97 582.30 加：投资收益 5.58 0.00 0.00 补贴收入 2.29 3.00 0.00 营业外收入 1.31 0.00 0.00 减：营业外支出 2.66 0.00 0.00 利润总额 563.23 531.97 582.30 减：所得税 65.20 58.19 69.88 少数股东权益 0.28 0.50 0.50 净利润 497.75 473.28 511.93 06Q3 总股本（百万股） 913.95 913.95 913.95 EPS（元） 0.545 0.518 0.560 资料来源：公司数据，上海证券研发中心。 上海证券研发中心 Page 2 公司动态 附表 2：江淮汽车全球主要市场相对估值比较 Jan-31-07 EPS PER PBR ADY ASGR Company name Code Curr. Close price mrq 06E 05A 06E 07E 05X 06X 07X 上海汽车 600104.SS CNY 9.47 0.34 0.39 0.49 28.10 24.58 19.39 2.07 2.64% 长安汽车 000625.SZ CNY 12.30 0.15 0.47 0.64 84.21 26.00 19.34 2.78 0.49% 江淮汽车 600418.SS CNY 6.77 0.54 0.52 0.56 12.43 13.07 12.09 2.08 2.22% Y03 一汽夏利 000927.SZ CNY 8.33 0.16 0.24 0.32 51.10 34.17 26.06 4.07 0.00% 75.28% 一汽轿车 000800.SZ CNY 5.44 0.21 0.25 0.32 26.22 22.17 16.93 1.65 3.68% Y04 东风汽车 600006.SS CNY 4.00 0.20 0.19 0.22 20.30 20.94 18.43 1.71 1.88% 15.50% 江铃汽车 000550.SZ CNY 12.40 0.57 0.78 0.87 21.61 15.88 14.25 3.60 1.61% Y05 金龙汽车 600686.SS CNY 15.02 0.68 0.63 0.76 28.71 23.84 19.76 4.78 1.00% 12.07% 宇通客车 600066.SS CNY 16.10 0.70 0.55 0.68 34.50 29.27 23.84 5.65 3.11% Y06 安凯客车 000868.SZ CNY 3.90 0.07 -0.03 0.05 54.93 N.A. 78.00 1.77 0.00% 25.13% 曙光股份 600303.SS CNY 8.89 0.54 0.51 0.64 16.55 17.43 13.89 1.99 1.69% 福田汽车 600166.SS CNY 4.41 -0.65 0.05 0.10 -6.78 82.28 42.36 2.51 0.00% 中国重汽 000951.SZ CNY 26.78 0.59 0.80 1.05 45.39 33.48 25.50 6.81 0.00% Mean China Industry 35.34 23.71 20.99 3.19 1.41% Brilliance Chi 01114.HK HKD 1.63 -0.18 0.04 0.06 -9.20 40.75 27.17 0.92 0.00% Qingling Motors 01122.HK HKD 1.38 0.02 0.03 0.04 87.34 46.00 34.50 0.50 1.45% Greatwall Motors 02333.HK HKD 9.95 0.47 0.49 0.58 21.17 20.31 17.16 2.28 1.31% Denway Motors 00203.HK HKD 3.29 0.25 0.29 0.32 13.00 11.34 10.28 2.63 3.04% Avi China 02357.HK HKD 0.80 0.03 0.02 0.02 32.00 40.00 33.33 0.43 1.25% Geely Auto 00175.HK HKD 0.83 0.03 0.05 0.07 30.86 16.60 11.86 2.29 1.20% Dongfeng Group 00489.HK HKD 4.75 0.26 0.26 0.33 18.37 18.27 14.39 2.64 0.84% Mudan Auto 08188.HK HKD 0.35 -0.01 -0.09 0.01 -36.32 -3.83 34.50 N.A. 0.00% Mean Hongkong Industry 27.65 25.42 24.78 1.67 1.30% Y03 Maruti Udyog MRTI.BO INR 936.60 41.16 50.86 59.61 22.76 18.42 15.71 5.50 0.48% 29.44% Tata Motors TAMO.BO INR 877.75 38.20 50.05 59.95 22.98 17.54 14.64 7.43 1.77% Y04 Mahindra & Mahindra MAHM.BO INR 900.20 26.37 41.93 48.53 34.14 21.47 18.55 9.89 1.22% 18.72% Ashok Leyland ASOK.BO INR 48.35 2.58 2.92 3.36 18.74 16.56 14.39 4.77 2.90% Y05 Hindustan Motors HMTR.BO INR 40.75 3.63 -3.15 2.50 11.23 -12.94 16.30 N.A. 0.00% 13.00% Bajaj Auto BJAT.BO INR 2762.50 111.00 132.03 163.30 24.89 20.92 16.92 6.76 1.65% Y06 Eicher Motors EICH.BO INR 375.30 77.20 16.16 21.11 4.86 23.22 17.78 3.98 1.07% 22.84% Mean India Industry 21.39 19.69 16.33 5.48 1.30% Hyundai Mobis 012330.KS KRW 76300 9740 9953 11217 7.83 7.67 6.80 2.76 2.10% Hyundai Motor 005380.KS KRW 67100 10599 6909 8720 6.33 9.71 7.70 1.37 1.94% Kia Motors 000270.KS KRW 11500 1964 946 1577 5.86 12.16 7.29 0.80 3.04% Ssangyong Motor 003620.KS KRW 4670 -856 426 532 -5.46 10.98 8.78 0.61 0.00% Mean S. Korea Industry 6.67 10.13 7.64 1.64 2.36% General Motors GM.N USD 32.84 -18.50 4.23 4.70 -1.78 7.76 6.99 1.67 3.05% DaimlerChrysler AG DCX.N USD 62.49 2.80 3.94 4.32 22.32 15.86 14.47 1.37 2.91% Ford Motor F.N USD 8.13 1.10 -1.31 -1.42 7.39 -6.21 -5.73 1.12 4.92% Toyota Motor TM.N USD 131.78 6.81 8.55 9.13 19.35 15.41 14.43 2.39 0.96% Honda Motor HMC.N USD 39.33 2.76 2.75 3.16 14.25 14.30 12.45 1.94 0.86% Y03 Nissan Motor NSANY.O USD 24.99 1.16 2.13 2.15 21.49 11.73 11.62 2.08 0.80% -2.44% Fiat SpA FIA.N USD 21.92 0.63 0.81 0.99 34.79 27.06 22.14 2.47 0.00% Y04 Tata Motors TTM.N USD 20.30 0.93 1.12 1.28 21.83 18.13 15.86 5.79 1.13% 0.96% Brilliance China Automotive CBA.N USD 21.08 -0.02 0.09 0.57 -1054.00 234.22 36.98 1.01 0.00% Y05 Fleetwood Enterprises FLE.N USD 9.21 -1.37 -0.86 0.23 -6.72 -10.71 40.04 3.43 0.00% 0.90% Monaco Coach MNC.N USD 15.08 0.12 -0.06 0.41 121.61 -251.33 36.78 1.38 1.59% Y06 Thor Industries THO.N USD 42.26 2.13 2.75 3.34 19.84 15.37 12.65 3.30 0.66% -2.32% Winnebago Industries WGO.N USD 33.89 1.93 1.40 1.80 17.56 24.21 18.83 4.83 1.06% Navistar International NAV.N USD 44.24 3.16 5.50 2.08 14.00 8.04 21.27 4.54 0.00% Oshkosh Truck OSK.N USD 52.80 2.19 3.36 4.46 24.16 15.71 11.84 3.96 0.76% Paccar Inc PCAR.O USD 66.84 6.56 6.08 4.22 10.19 10.99 15.84 3.57 1.80% Spartan Motors SPAR.O USD 16.74 0.65 0.86 1.02 25.75 19.47 16.41 2.23 1.31% Wabash National WNC.N USD 15.94 3.06 0.61 0.93 5.21 26.13 17.14 1.72 1.13% Mean American Industry 19.46 17.09 19.16 2.71 1.27% 上海证券研发中心 Page 3 公司动态 Toyota Motor 7203.T JPY 7950 421.76 446.30 485.04 18.85 17.81 16.39 2.43 1.34% Y03 Honda Motor 7267.T JPY 4750 324.34 311.67 345.48 14.65 15.24 13.75 1.04 1.35% 0.42% Nissan Motor 7201.T JPY 1508 126.94 127.93 137.95 11.88 11.79 10.93 2.00 2.25% Y04 Mazda Motor 7261.T JPY 792 51.53 58.00 64.22 15.37 13.66 12.33 2.78 0.71% 0.40% Suzuki Motor 7269.T JPY 3470 125.64 168.76 195.04 27.62 20.56 17.79 2.47 0.35% Y05 Fuji Heavy Industries 7270.T JPY 631 20.66 41.69 43.79 30.54 15.14 14.41 0.96 1.43% 0.70% Daihatsu Motors 7262.T JPY 1232 78.14 74.45 81.13 15.77 16.55 15.19 1.72 1.07% Y06 Isuzu Motors 7202.T JPY 604 48.75 58.81 65.88 12.39 10.27 9.17 3.98 0.69% -5.41% Hino Motors 7205.T JPY 624 49.51 35.23 39.09 12.60 17.71 15.96 1.31 1.49% Nissan Diesel Motor 7210.T JPY 436 108.73 67.41 66.25 4.01 6.47 6.58 2.11 0.69% Mitsubishi Motors 7211.T JPY 199 -19.75 1.51 3.77 -10.08 131.79 52.79 -6.28 0.00% Mean Japan Industry 16.37 16.06 14.59 2.08 1.14% Volkswagen AG VOWG.DE EUR 86.66 2.90 4.42 5.62 29.88 19.61 15.42 1.51 1.44% Y03 DaimlerChrysler AG DCXGn.DE EUR 48.47 2.80 3.31 4.44 17.31 14.64 10.92 1.44 3.30% 0.02% BMW AG BMWG.DE EUR 47.08 3.33 3.85 3.97 14.14 12.23 11.86 1.64 1.44% Y04 Porsche AG PSHG_p.DE EUR 983.97 44.74 54.40 64.87 21.99 18.09 15.17 1.84 0.56% 0.04% PSA Peugeot-Citroen PEUP.PA EUR 51.70 4.47 5.12 6.61 11.57 10.10 7.82 0.86 2.61% Y05 Renault Group RENA.PA EUR 96.40 13.08 10.25 11.49 7.37 9.40 8.39 1.44 3.11% 0.07% Fiat S.p.A FIA.MI EUR 16.71 1.05 0.55 0.85 15.91 30.38 19.66 2.68 0.00% Y06 MAN AG MANG.DE EUR 79.62 3.04 3.84 4.17 26.19 20.73 19.09 3.56 2.14% 1.28% Volvo AB VOLVb.ST SEK 510.00 32.45 37.56 30.70 15.72 13.58 16.61 2.86 3.29% Scania AB SCVb.ST SEK 487.50 23.33 27.21 26.90 20.90 17.92 18.12 4.50 3.08% Mean European Industry 18.10 16.67 14.31 2.23 2.10% 资料来源：Bloomberg，上海证券研发中心；上表中 ASGR—Auto sales growth rate；所有公司盈利预测基于近况及未来预期进行调整。 上海证券投资评级体系与评级定义 类别 分级 定 义 超强大市 Superperform 分析师预计，未来 6 个月内，股价表现将强于沪深 300 指数 20%以上 跑赢大市 Outperform 分析师预计，未来 6 个月内，股价表现将强于沪深 300 指数 10%以上 股票投资评级 大市同步 In-Line 分析师预计，未来 6 个月内，股价表现将介于沪深 300 指数±10%之间 落后大市 Underperform 分析师预计，未来 6 个月内，股价表现将弱于沪深 300 指数 10%以上 有吸引力 Attractive 分析师预计，未来 12 个月内，行业指数表现将强于沪深 300 指数 5%以上 行业投资评级 中性 Neutral 分析师预计，未来 12 个月内，行业指数表现将介于沪深 300 指数±5%之间 谨慎 Cautious 分析师预计，未来 12 个月内，行业指数表现将弱于沪深 300 指数 5%以上 重要声明：本报告中的信息均来源于已公开的资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，不保证该信息未经任何更新，也不保证本公司作出 的任何建议不会发生任何变更。在任何情况下，报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述证券买卖的出价或询价。在任何情况下，我公司不就本报告中的任 何内容对任何投资作出任何形式的担保。我公司及其关联机构可能会持有报告中提到的公司所发行的证券并进行交易，还可能为这些公司提供或争取提供投资 银行或财务顾问服务。我公司的关联机构或个人可能在本报告公开前已经使用或了解其中的信息。本报告版权归上海证券有限责任公司所有。未获得上海证券 有限责任公司事先书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如遵循原文本意地引用、刊发，需注明出处为“上海证券研发中心”。 上海证券研发中心 Page 4.
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