Pax Europeana II-Towards a New European Eastern Partnership EU

Towards a new European Eastern Partnership

Between the EU 28 with the RF 28

We need a new partnership with Russia. One based on mutual security, trust and common values and on mutual understanding between the European Union and the Russian Federation. As the decade since President Putin has declared the second cold war in Munich in 2007 has shown, confrontation is not beneficial for both sides of the Eurasian Continent. And first of all, we need to know each other better. Russia has show some considerable interest in the European Union during the 2nd cold war and has participated in all our crisis and celebrated Brexit, Catalonian Nationalism, the Greek crisis, each Balkan conflict, supported Anti EU populism and has contributed to the crisis situation in many ways- from Ukraine to Syria and was always ready to paint us in whatever was perceived as negative from Russian perspective in an effort to show to the Russian audience and the world that Russia is a better alternative than Europe in decay. Always, actually with bad intention but always spot on with bad spin but well informed and mastering the art of inflating an existing issue and exploiting it beyond proportion or creating an issue and twisting the argument successfully towards European detriment. And indeed not just active but well informed and spot on and knowing Europe very well. From the best places to buy property, the best place to live, invest and celebrate, from inside knowledge how our institutions work and where are potential conflicts are. Good, in an open system there are not many such secrets but still well done and respect for the effort and competence and interest in the European Union. Sadly, the EU and the Europeans have show no such interest in the Russian Federation, the last European Empire. We know it is big, potentially dangerous, run by Putin and yes we know some of the cities and much of the history, and yes we feel guilt for what we did in the World Wars, deeply indeed -but who has actually been there and how does the Russian Federation work today and how do the Russians live back there? We know very little and just a few have been there and we sorry to say did not care too much the last decades for the new Russia. Now with Russian tanks in Donbas, Russian Green Men in Sevastopol and Russian airplanes bombing Aleppo we care again. But this is not how it should be. For a real partnership, this has to change. We have to learn more about the eastern part of the Eurasian continent that is so interested in us to invest, influence our political system, bribe our elites and invade our neighbors and change the global order. But Europe as it is and will be in future - be cannot start the similar form of interest, we are the Union of peace, freedom and values we cannot reciprocate such interest in similar means.

What we can do though is explain better what we are as a Union, how we work and what our ambitions are as EU and we can communicate with all of the Russian Federation and share our past experience with confrontation and war and why we build such a Union in Europe based on rules and regulation, boring staff but better for prosperity than more exciting tanks of which we had to many everywhere in Europe and why that works for us and we do not want such escalation anymore.

And how we can work together in the new partnership approach in the future with the Russian Federation and its regions and citizens. As the EU has 28 member states the proposal is to indentify the key 28 regions of the Russian Federation and to work between the 28 Member States of the EU and the 28 let us call them Member States for the RF in a European Partnership for Freedom and Development and invest along European principle in good trust and in significant amounts in a new partnership approach between Brussels, our capital and Moscow the capital of the Russian Federation and directly between the EU member States and the Member States of the Russian Federation.

And of course base this on the role model of the French- German Friendship, which after a millennium of war is now the firm fundament of the European project. Please never forget we have had about 14 colonial Empires in Europe and 2 major wars in a century and to overcome all this sad heritage and to ensure peace in freedom we build this Union and we would like to share this experience with all people in all regions of the Russian Federation to build a strong and stable partnership for freedom and security together. We do not want to occupy, invade, attack, colonize, or anything like that. We want peace and peace in freedom and we want a Russian Federation as a peaceful and prosperous and stable neighbor. And of course we understand we will have to spend on such a partnership and we will, massively. It is better to spend a 1% of GDP to twin with a Russian Member State of the Russian Federation than to invest in military defense because of the Russian threat. Much better economics for both sides and better value for taxpayers money. As things stand now we will increase defense spending because of Russian threat to 2% of GDP but we will not use this hardware due to the nuclear stalemate and so really this is a dead end. Let us partner in development of EU 28 and RF 28 and build railways, motorways, development agencies and e-procurement portals and not fighter jets and tanks. So that is why a EU 28 Partnership with RF 28 is much better than a second decade of Cold War 2.0 ever more escalating and inevitable leading to the same end like the Cold War 1.0 has led. The sudden disintegration and possible chaotic disintegration of the Russian Federation due to overspending for imperial adventurism and threatening the West to an arms race, which the SU has lost back than, and the RF has not the slightest chance to win. Today we in EU have a 17 Trillion GDP and RF has 1,3 and this does not include the rest of NATO roughly producing now 40 Trillion of GDP a year not including other potential allies in Asia and elsewhere. Look the Soviet Union was a formidable foe and the twin factors of imperial overreach and lower revenues of natural resources have led to the end and the same will happen to the RF and the changes in energy technology will just speed up that trend. And the more aggressive Russian is in Ukraine and Syria the less energy we will buy and the more we are ready to subsidies alternative energy to reduce our dependency from our currently hostile neighbor on the Eurasia continent who seem to think are sad and silly. We are not, we are just a bit busy with other staff and good to remember you did not want nor require help in the 2000 to 2007 period and than you kindly declared Cold War 2.0 in Munich while we, the West were busy in the Middle East and Afghanistan after 9/11. We should have care more and kept in touch, sorry. But we will from now and again we are in good intention and want to help but we lack the knowledge about the Russian Federation. This time we will get it right. We will support a Federal Russian similar to the European Union a Union of 28 supporting and assisting and contributing to a Union of 28 – the EU 28 for the RF 28. But we have a lack of information which partners would be ready to work with which partner in the EU? Who would fit to whom? The Russian Federation has 89 subjects and it all sound pretty complicated. It is not. In reality such a partnership is very clear and simple. 28 here and 28 and over there, and all work together, learn, educate, trade, assist and exchange and all current conflicts can be overcome.

EU and RF 28 with 28 Member States working together for a peaceful, free and prosperous Eurasian continent

Russia seems to be too big to understand and to explain in terms of 28 Member States. But it is not. In reality is fit very well and is simple.

We have to start with the 3 main central European Member States of the EU France, Germany and Poland. Germany should partner with the Russian Central Republic with Moscow and the regions around it basically what is today called the Central Economic Region and the Black Earth Region of Russia. France should partner with St Petersburg and the regions around it and Poland to partner with the Don Republic with Volgograd and Rostov as one new Member State of the Russian Federation. This covers most of the population of today’s Russia already and most of the EU and fits in size and history and a lot of useful links and cooperation can be established together.

In the north Kaliningrad can partner with Denmark, fits well just across the Baltic Sea, and Karelia and the region north can partner with the UK, as can the Komi Republic and the 3 regions around partner with Sweden. Komi is the second northern member state if you want to include Kaliningrad and so there 3 northern member states of the EU with Denmark, Sweden and the UK partnering the 3 northern Member States of the RF 28, Karelia, Komi and Kaliningrad. And then the 3 Central ones with France, Germany and Poland and then is just the Kuban Republic missing. Kuban not to mix with Cuba but indeed the southern part of European Russia, south of the Don Member State and it fits clearly to Italy and so we have all the right Competent partners for European Russia with 7 great and fitting partners in the EU. 3 in north, 3 in center and 1 in south, add to 7.

Then we have the interesting area in the Central Volga – possible best to see as the new Volga Benelux. Fitting very well with the Benelux States just it is 5 of the Member States there in the Volga Benelux. And so to have 3 partners from the Benelux we need to ask Finland the Hungary to share in to partner with Mari El, the northwestern Republic of the Volga Benelux, inhabited with a people related to the Finns so that is a fit, and the south Western part of the Volga Benelux a new Member State called Chuva, with which Hungary can partner and that is a fit as well and then it is simple in the Volga Benelux with Tarastan, flat and full of oil fitting with the Netherlands and Bashkhoristan to Belgium and Orenburg to Luxemburg. A perfect fit B2B and Burg-to-Burg, no serious this works just fine not s=just rhyme. So that is the Volga Benelux of 5 fitting from Hungary and Finland and the 3 Benelux and will be squeezed in between Kazakhstan and the Central Russian Member State. And so good from the start to have a Benelux kind cooperation platform and who better can help then the Benelux experts in regional cooperation? That is quite a perfect fit. So we have covered 12 partnerships. 7 in European Russia and 5 in Volga Benelux make 12 Member State of the Russian Federation of 28.

Now we come to the Balkans-Black Sea region in the EU and their partner region in the Russian Federation the Caucasus-Caspian Region and the 8 Member States of the Russian Federation who are based there. Great that we have Slovenia, Croatia, Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece and Cyprus and we have to ask here Malta and Ireland to come in and it fits quite well as you will see.

This is a special region and the experience in overcoming trouble from Ireland, Malta, Cyprus to the Balkans and Black Sea will help in this partnership with the Caucasus-Caspian Region similar like the Balkans a global pressure zone between big powers since 2 millennium and a strong and stable federal framework is essential for security and prosperity we have achieved this now in the Balkans on the way to the EU and are improving in the southern Caucasus with the EaP and now it is time for a similar process in the Northern Caucasus and Caspian Region and the member states of the Russian Federation in partnership with their EU MS partners.

The two Caspian European Russian MS Partnership are clear with Kalmykistan Member State and Bulgaria MS and Astrakhan MS and Romania, they have the same position at Black Sea and Caspian and will be a great fit. A lot can be achieved together. It will help to bring the Black Sea and the Caspian Region together and makes a lot of interconnectivity possible.

For the 6 northern Caucasus Republics it is always a challenge, as sadly the same negative stereotypes exist towards the Caucasus in Russia as towards the Balkans in the EU. But it is quite simple. Greece to help Dagestan at the Caspian Sea, possible Alexander the Great was the last Greek to visit but there are for sure some still there. Cyprus is small and can help with Ingushetia. Ireland is used to trouble and has overcome them inside the EU and can serve as partner of Chechnya. As Malta for Ossetia, a Persian people living in the Russian Federation in an isolated mountain range the similarities are obvious. And Circassia and Balkaria have a lot in common as well some shared tradition and people where Slovenia and Croatia can shared some experiences. Surely it is more complicated but from the start we should work along the existing MS inside the RF and there was lot of gerrymandering and sad imperialist divide and rule in the similar to the Balkans. The Caucasus between Russian, Iran and Turkey for basically forever has this structure now and how the MS of the RF 28 are called is their own decision and all of them have to be governed along the Council of Europe minority rights regulation and so we recommend the EU MS states Slovenia and Croatia who as well are very similar in tradition and ethnicity and history but have settled in modernity and in matured measure of conflict resolution inside the EU and so should Circassia and Balkaria. So suddenly a challenging regions has all the fitting partners. Let us recount from West to East - Slovenia with Circassia, Croatia with Balkaria, Malta with Ossetia, Cyprus with Ingushetia and Greece with Dagestan, Bulgaria with Kalmykya and Astrakhan with Romania and we are done here with 8 and this add up to 20 partnership fitting and on the road for freedom, security and prosperity. Never forget it was the purposeful policy of the Russian Empire and the Stalin Soviet Union to make things complicated and hard to understand under the age- old principle of divide and rule. But we want to work in modern rule based partnership with the EU 28 with the EU 28 and look what trouble we have been in the Balkans and the islands from islands to Cyprus and we have found a way to freedom, prosperity based on security and federalism and the same is possible in the RF 28. Even in the more challenging Caucasus-Caspian Region and the 8 Member States there. And for sure as well in the Asian part of the Russian Federation with 8 Member States waiting for their partner in the EU 28 to celebrate their European partnership with the RF 28.

8 EU & RF Member State Partnership in Asia

And then to Central and Northern Asia with 8 remaining regions and here it is simple as well. It looks big and it is and so let us keep it simple and clear. No more Stalin sophisticated confusion.

And for the Central or Southern Asian Member States of the RF 28 we have four MS of the EU to match. Austria and the 3 Baltic MS of the EU. Austria can partner with Amur, both alpine and land locked countries and Austria can help in tourism and agriculture and SME for the Chinese market. Altai can partner with Estonia and Latvia with Tuva and Lithuania with Burjatia MS. This is very effective as the Baltic’s have been in the SU and are now in EU and can help with reforms and transformation in very effective manner and they can share the experience or reform for SU to EU and as well the regional Baltic cooperation council for these Central Asia tiger of the future. These are 8 added in Asia and so we have 28 here and there and 28 fitting partnership to intense cooperation and build a working public diplomacy and share the experience of the living in a never perfect European Union based on federal and power sharing and the experience of the 28 Member States ready for a new European Partnership based on similar values which we share, freedom, human and property rights, political presentation and the rule of law and transparent government and opportunities for all, no matter in which part to the European Union or the Russian Federation we all live between the Atlantic and the Pacific united on one Eurasia continent and all praying and working for peace. Such a partnership approach would help us as well to learn more about the Russian Federation and understand the share the issues and concerns and as well explain that we are some form or modern construct this European Union which has overcome all the imperialist or colonial past and we are everything but aggressive and that is why we have such issue with the present action of the last European Empire government for Moscow and we would like to meet all of Russians region and citizens to communicate direct and build 28 new bridges above what divided us right now and understand what united is. And it is sure the best way forward to build such a new partnership between the EU 28 and the RF 28 for peace and security and prosperity for all citizens of the EU and the RF 28.

One cultural and one academic institute we have to understand RF 28 better in all complexities and riches in wealth and poverty in culture and diversity – we always say we celebrated diversity so why we do not celebrate diversity and cooperation the RF 28? And such a cooperation can help to focus minds on good governance, foster business cooperation and links in cultural den technology and something lead to a better understating and that is the basis for all form of cooperation and we have to understand RF today not a giant central monolithic power but as a Federation like with 28 very distinct region and transition, people and potential and this will bring us closer and will be the basis for peace in Eurasia.

Attached please find the Map of the Russian Federation RF 28.

This article is the second part of the Pax Europeana discussion on the security situation of Europe after 2014 game changing intervention of the RF in Ukraine as a road map for the EU how to live up to the challenges in a active manner first of all by a clear reform of the EU and a clear yes to enlargement of the EU. Please find the first part at http://flattax-europe.eu/yliko/pdf/Newsletters/PAX_EUROPEANA_10_March_2017.pdf and the focus edition on Ukraine at http://flattax-europe.eu/yliko/pdf/Newsletters/TAX_Reformer_No_8.pdf

The series on the EU 28 and RF 28 will be continued in the coming weeks during the focus month of the sad anniversary of the 100 years after the October Revolution which has brought so much misery and tragedy on the world and the Russian people and they have deserved better and the road ahead shall be a more Federal Russia of 28 in close partnership with the EU 28.

Part 2 – Pax Europeana 2017 - What is more fragile? The European Union or the Russian Federation?

It seems a bit fancy these days in the Balkans and Ukraine to focus on the European crisis and question if there will be a European future of the Balkans and Ukraine. The joke goes - yes once we will be ready the EU will be gone...

Good, that is a bit funny but in reality there is no basis for such claims and all who repeat fall to Russian Anti EU propaganda.

It is quite common as part of war to discredit the basis of the sustainability of the other and so it is understandable that the Russian Federation is trying this strategy that but nobody should have any illusions. This is not funny - and this is not true. The EU is a free and rule based –voluntary Union of Member States. Free nations and sovereign states that have decided for reasons of peace, prosperity, security and freedom to share certain tasks and institutions. As seen by Brexit, a member state can leave.

As seen by the recent doubling of members from 12 to 28 within 22 years, countries want to join. And more are waiting from the Balkans 6 and the Black Sea 3 and a EU 37 is feasible in the 2030ies. The EU is attractive and prosperous and growing in all aspects. Even, we are so attractive - too much for some - as many see their refuge and hope inside the EU and decide to walk continent wide to reach safety here in EU.

And yes we have challenges. The 2008 Financial crisis leading to the debt crisis of Greece as weakest member of Eurozone in 2011, the lack of coordinate response to the Syrian Civil War from 2011 onwards leading to the refugee crisis of 2015 and the Russian aggression from 2014 in Ukraine and the confrontation with Russia after the occupation of Crimea and Donbas and the internal challenges of Post Imperial Nationalism of the UK elite and the regional nationalism of Catalonia both based on resentment to sharing by the richer parts of the EU with the rest of Spain in case of Catalonia and with Polish workers in the case of the UK – sharing the spoils of EU integration –immense prosperity created by free people and a free market of 500 Million consumers. And the spoils are incredible. Look how rich the EU and all its member states are now compared to anytime in their past.

And from the Balkan and Ukraine – the European periphery the multiple in prosperity differential by crossing the Polish Ukrainian or Albanian Greek border is still shocking.

Where you cross to the EU from SEE Balkans or Ukraine you see, feel and hear and taste the difference on double, triple of 6 times the prosperity level as with Ukraine and Poland.

But still people joke. Will there be the EU in future?

Please what else will there be? Civil war? States again all alone living in islands at prosperity levels of 1970? Please give me a break. Of course it will and of course free and open societies will always find a way to overcome crisis and develop the institutional answers required to respond to challenges.

And we are such free and open societies, and we will stay united, work on the crisis of the year and of the next and always find a suitable often not fashionable compromise. And we have. And we will. For the 2008 crisis we build the banking union and for the debt crisis the ESM and for Brexit and Catalonia we negotiate and have constitutions and for Russian aggression we have NATO and for immigration - integration and better common foreign and security policy to avoid failure and yes nothing of it is so glamorous and shiny and fully satisfactorily but that is the nature of supranational union. We are not an Empire ready to strike back. We are not striking at all. We work step by step, boring a bit. Steadily based on painful interest coalition and compromises and without glorious grandstanding and imperial power to project globally. And we wont in future. But we will sustain. Why because we build on such a flexible framework matrix and on a wide legitimacy and lasting results. And course that is easy cry compromise and foul and claim Europe is useless and some do. And some of our opponents give such claims and voice the megaphone. Russia under Putin since 2007 especially with RT as tool is active to megaphone such claims and voices.

Of course, to be fair Putin did not invent UK or Catalan nationalism, or the Greek spending megalomania, or the financial crisis, or the Arab spring. But for sure he did not help in solving any of them and for sure on a rational strategic manner he tried to blow wind into developing fires in various manners some open some less open and open for all with more media exposure of such voices especially in the precarious periphery of the West from Bosnia to Serbia to Macedonia to Ukraine and the Arab world where the West, the EU and our narrative is the most vulnerable due to different perception on history and lack of information during communism.

Sadly, in EU nobody likes to accept but it is not in Frankfurt and Brussels where things can go so wrong it is in Kyiv, Sarajevo and Damascus where we are weakest and there things can go so wrong and spiral fully out of control. And the post 2007 Putin starting from the Munich speech has used all the great assets of the Russian Empire 2.0 to incite Anti Western and Anti EU crisis as there might be. Why?

More then we understand he sees a successful European Unification process based on freedom and federalism including most of the European part of what was the Russian Empire and soon most of the European part of the what was the Soviet Union as a direct threat to his new Empire 2.0 the Russian Federation, today sadly anything but a Federation but a new Imperial project very much dominated by him. And have a working alternative based on human and property rights, freedom and federalism, equality and respect for Member States and high level of prosperity so close and open for people and citizens which have strong communication links to his subjects the Russian Imperial elite sees as a direct challenges to their claims that Russia and all Eastern European need strong leadership, that the West is decadent and in decline and is not producing results. Seeing and feeling the success in the Baltic States is hard, and explaining away the success of Central Europe as different and distant and belittling the Balkans progress is easier than explaining why Ukraine is not more successful than ever and will be improving its living standards under European conditions to include all part of the society and to new level unprecedented within Russia. And the Russian elite knows much more than we who sadly know little about Russia that that it is much more diverse and complex structure and in deed highly instable and mainly held together by the more and more scarce resources taken from fortunate regions to give less popular one, by the threat of central power, and Russian nationalism similar to Serbian or German nationalism of the past never a good bases for a multiethnic Empire for the long term.

We in Europe though, even is some in the USA find that boring have found a mechanism to deal with differences and diversity and we have a built quite a smart form of mechanism to deal with such difference and have the institutions to by permanent negotiations and often acrimonious discussions to find the balance between growth and stability, rights of members states and European priorities, smoothing regional disparities and deepening and widening the zone of freedom and rights and responsibility which Europe is today. We are not an Empire but a Union of Free States sharing and caring for each other and stronger with each crisis we overcome. And such a counter model for the Russian Empire 2.0 is very hard to accept and that is why we face these coordinated efforts by the Russian Federation to discredit and boycott and create obstacles for the European Union. The main driver of the Russian Elite – Fear of a 3rd Break Up Here we have to understand the end of the Soviet Union better. Similar to the end of the Yugoslavia which led to a decade of wars until clarity and peace has developed and keeps all friends of the Balkans in the West busy today but it is done and over now and all on way to EU and NATO and half already save inside the Transatlantic Community - the end of the Soviet Union can not be understood like a August to December 1991 happening and 15 happy new nations lived in freedom and happiness from there onwards and that is it. On the contrary it is a 25 years and still ongoing small to medium scale war with some tragic escalations in 1994, 1999, 2008 and now since 2014. Everybody is careful to call it like that because of the stakes attached with nukes abound are high but ask the Chechens, Georgians and Ukrainians? Yes, we have 3 Baltic States safely in EU and NATO that was great result but how about Moldova with Transnistria, Georgia with South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Ukraine with Donbas and Crimea and the Armenia and Azeri cold war? And the stability of Russia itself with 89 Republics? And here we are at the core of the issue. Contrary to the West where the history of Russian Imperial Colonial Conquest of Central Asia and the Caucasus is widely forgotten the Russian elite has not forgotten. And for sure nobody in Russia has forgotten the history to the Russian Civil wars from 1916 to 1926. Ten year that shook the world but the world has forgotten it. But the Russian elite and the Russian periphery have not. Having been unable to stop the disintegration of the SU in its 15 republics the first reflex was to ensure to stop the hemorrhage and so bombs were dropped on Grozny. And even that could not stop the semi independence of Cheney and so a second war had to be done and it was and Putin came to power backed on that perceived success. Success on the basis of reconquering Chechnya in most bloody and brutal manner as a Central State who has the duty for the welfare of its citizen instead carpet bombing them. As a symbol of what will happen to all part of Russias daring to break way. Bombs will be the response and atrocities. It was understood. Look at this in classically case of forwards defense that was the answer ever since. Better do things in Transnistria, Abkhazia and Donbas and Crimea. It will be understood in Amur, Orenburg, Rostov or Omsk. Never heard of these places? Maybe good to learn them now because they might be relevant soon on the global stage, again – not as capital of independent state or victims of punishing Centralist power but as capitals of Member States of the Russian Federation build by Member States and not subjects. They will be relevant again as they where during the Russian civil war and this is still the crystallizing, mind focusing moment of the Russian elite. Each Empire has that fear of break up because deep in the heart they know they stole it and there is no consent from the governed historically and little now. It was never legitimate theirs. So it was for all 14 mainly European Powers conquering the world and sharing the spoils and giving it up is hard. From Britain to Austria, Netherlands to Spain, France to Russia, Portugal to Belgium, Germany to Italy and Sweden and Serbia as smaller late comers to have 12 and 2 non European ones Turkey and Japan and there might be more. So it is 14. 14 Sharing the world and all knowing that the world was not meant to be run by them. And the last 100 years has seen now close to 200 countries inside the UNO most of them having been part at one stage or the other of these 14 Imperial powers. And one of them, Russia has faced a dramatic loss of dominion in 1991 with loosening 14 Republic, basically colonies but still there is so much colonial gain inside the current Russian Federation inherited from Imperial Russia and the Soviet Union which was basically conquering there colonial area of the Russian Empire after the Soviet took power in Central Russia in 1917 -1918 and than during the Russian Civil Wars the strongest ethnic group and most densely populated central part run by the Soviets has re-conquered rest of the Russian Empire in a long and brutal struggle leading until 1926. And of course it is legitimate in terms of international law but is it in terms of historic justice? And many might pose this question in the Southern rim of the Russian Empire and within the many non Russian ethnicities living in the territory of the Russian Federation since ever. And might not the time come that people from the Northern Caucasus and Siberia and Eastern Asia will ask such question as the drivers of such issues are the same like the last 100 years? Spread of information, communication, travel and common understanding of human rights, a wish for a better live, human rights and national self-determination. And the feeling it is time for self rule, autonomy, having a better share of the natural resources and a fair representation and a better future of the own children and possible self determination and even independence. So we have to be careful with this, as this is painful question and we should never encourage people to ask for independence if we as West are not ready to fight for it. We see that with the Kurds in Iraq. If we encourage them and Iran, Turkey and Bagdad fall over them with Western equipment what will we do? So nobody in the West wants the Russian Federation to fall apart as we did not want it in SU and YU. But I simple say this is the reason why Putin is so aggressive trying to undermine Western and EU unity, is so against Ukraine joining and shining into this sphere with freedom and prosperity and that why should be prepare not for the break up that is the worst case, but for assisting a new form of a Russian Federation based on real federalism and state rights and European values and based on 28 Member States like the EU has 28 Member States. And prepare for a massive assistance and partnership program for help the Russian Regions and the Russian Federation to find a new working federal arrangement end the export of insecurity to hyper compensate for the own fragility with threatening own regions and neighbors on a assumption that power with subdue all competition. It does for a while, but not forever - and at major costs, which the 3rd version of Russian Imperialism will not is able for afford for long. And affordably and sustainability matters for all political system and especially for the ones held together by money and force. And the power of the Supreme Communicator, Mr. Putin who deserves respect for his amazing performance in convincing the world, the West, his Russian voters and possible himself that Russia is doing just fine and that his amazing military build up in the decreasing economy will not result in disaster but will put Russian back into the Superpower league. It will not. Please see a clear and simple graph.

The Russian GDP over the last decade. Russia is now at prosperity level of a decade ago. Similar to Greece it wiped out a decade of progress. It has lost a quite spectacular one Trillion $ from pre Ukraine aggression to today in GDP. Good as well 1,3 Trillion GDP Economy buys a lot of weapons but not much more. For the detailed discussion on Russian Defense spending please see the ECFR report. http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_the_truth_about_russias_de fence_budget_7255 This is not sustainable and everybody knows it. And as ETR has outlined already the EU has 17 Trillion GDP, Non EU Europe has another 3 Trillion, the USA has 18.5 Trillion and Canada with just 36 Million people compared to the RF with 142 Million is producing 1,5 Trillion GDP. So the difference between the West as in NATO and EU is about 40 Trillion to 1,2 Trillion in GDP and that is what matters in medium to long term. Of course with the assets Russia has now it can act in Ukraine, Syria and possible elsewhere yes we have to be ready but 2 wars and the costs of Crimea and such level of defense spending how sustainable is this and how long can Russia live of reserves. And just to remember the USA alone as the lead power in NATO spends 600 Billion and despite all efforts it is 70 Billion for the RF. So yes you can intervene in Aleppo and Donbas and occupy Crimea but inflict a lot of pain for a lot of people but if the underlying economic potential is just 5% of the West can you afford next year or in 5 years and to what costs for your population? And this is what matters for our discussion here because we are interested in peace and good neighborhood and business and cooperation and we want to avoid a sudden break up of the Russian Federation, possible chaotic in a fiscal failure and collapse resulting in many negative effects possible similar to Yugoslavia and its decade of war. This is what happened to other Empires living beyond their means please see the other 13 past Empires and as well the Russian one hundred years ago and the Soviet Union, its successor and so it will for the Russian Federation if this trend continues. No doubt. But Russia has the nukes and will not the last president kill us all and that is about it? Most likely not, but for sure we will do nothing to provoke him so to be clear so there will be no support for any independence movement on the Russian territory and nobody to feel encouraged and think Western troops will help more than in Budapest in 1956 or Grozny 1999. We will not. And it would as well not be serious to encourage but as the reckless military expansionism since 2014 is leading that way we should in so far be prepared to understand what might appear on the world stage and we should as well prepare what we might have to recognize during the Post Russian Federation Wars if we are not having a better scenario available for the Ex-RF than during the Ex-YU wars. The RF will break up into its existing republics and federation subjects and it will be messy. How to avoid such a collapse resulting in war and misery? We should start now to encourage a new form of partnership with the Russian Federation based on European Federalism and watching the RF of 85 subjects slide into chaos but encourage a transformation of the Russian Federation in a new Federal System leading to 28 members states and such a Russian Federation of 28 Member States recognized by the world and a global peaceful and benevolent actor on the World Stage. That is why a EU 28 Partnership with the RF 28 matters and it matters a lot and what we have to do – all of us is to learn about the new 28 Member States of the Russian Federation. Please meet the new 28 Member States.

------But as it seems so distant – so far so unspeakable to discuss supporting the Russian Federation in terms of 28 Member States. Russia seems so complicated, that we as West even shy way from considering it and this is wrong. Consider, who can seriously name of 28 member states of the EU without looking at the map? Some can and some will learn the 28 member States of the Russian Federation as well. For some this might be a question that anyhow is for the Russians and who cares? But if it breaks up that last Empire what than? It might blow up faster than many think given the experience of the last times back in 1917 to 1922 and in 1991. There was certainly nobody to think that will happen in 1916 or in 1989, I dare to say even in 1991. So given that we are now facing with the twin forces of major military engagement and a significant decline in economics, can we be sure it is not happening and should we not better be prepared? And again, it is not what the West wants such a scenario or is anybody plotting for the demise of Russia. On the contrary, but if we not help to explain, guide and advise and promote a new federal system for the Russian Federation based on best working EU 28 system will it not be suddenly too late when the momentum of the powerful disintegration forces might lead to a break up which all sides want to avoid? A federal Russia, a real federal State with 28 Member States and similar institutions like the EU is the much better solution than anything else, which might be happening, in the coming years. The 28 Member State, which we have defined are along side the existing internal borders of the various subjects of the RF today and so there will be no border changes. Some of the Member State of the RF will be Federal States themselves like the Central Russian MS similar, like Germany with 16 Federal States the new Central Russian MS of the RF will have 24 Federal States with Moscow as the Capital of the RF and the Central Russian Member State. It will have a strong role in the RF but will be in balanced Federal system with Kuban in the south partner of Italy consisting of 3 current subjects, Don MS with 2 Rostov and Volgograd and Petersburg Baltic with 3 current subjects to the north the Karelia and Komi Member States in the with 2 in case of Karelia and 4 current subjects in case of Komi MS. We have outlined already all the 28 MS in details but just to make the idea clear. There will be small and medium and big member states of the RF same as there are in the EU and similar MS shall work with similar MS of the EU to have a relevant peer and cooperate on a level that makes sense for both sides while at the same time no twining for example Finland with Karelia to remove an credibility if certain quarters say that there is a kind of hidden imperialist agenda or a take over planned. This is the specialty of the current Russian Federation and we are not in this league. We want to help and we want to live in peace. And we want to help with direct assistance both on how a Federal System works and will work as well for the Russian Member States and help from MS to MS in increasing the welfare of the citizens. That is what matter most. The current 85 and ever changing organizing system of the Russian Federation is only to divide and rule Russia and to confuse the outside world with various levels of regions, republics, autonomous districts and cities and it is all fine but we have all the same with Federal Systems in our MS in EU from Germany to Austria and it seems not well enough developed in Spain but certainly we have it there as well and we have it in Austria and the number of 85 we can reach easily if we mix the Lander with the MS and apply the same divide and rule principle like the current RF. Obviously, there can be different decision and the one or the other current subjects will prefer to be a member state in its own right or prefer to be in the Ural MS than in the Central Russian MS. Just from the side of this article and proposal we think the first principle should be the current border, what makes economic senses, where is the current status and historic, political and ethnic and cultural basis and so to take it case by case along the exciting current structure and based on the assuming preferences of the people and the geography. Cleary this is very unpopular concept for the Russian elite and some quarters of the Russian population in a hype after the Crimea but a more calmer part and attitude will hopefully prevail and given the prosperity and human rights differential between the EU 28 and the RF today a new approach of governance in all of the current RF should be very attractive for all of the Russian citizens and future RF 28. As well this will be the only way to first come back to the international normality and end the current Pariah status of the Russian Federation after what was done in Crimea Donbas and Aleppo and as well that is the assumption Federal System and modern Union of Member States are not aspiring on conquest and imperial adventurism and the RF 28 will withdraw from such activities everywhere – of course from the Crimea and the Donbas and of course from Syria and Moldova and Georgia and again all this issues in the above countries have to be solved within the federal System of the current sovereign States. Real independence and a special direct option with EU perspective possibility or the RF can only be the exception and the principle that past aggression shall never be rewarded must be valid and kept in all cases. So the Crimea will never join the Russian Federation as it is and will never be part of Russia in an legal or international recognized way. Clearly, Russian will never accept such a transformation and always claim loud negative Western Imperial intervention in Free Russia and prefer war to European Federalism even if we offer 1% of our GDP to support the transfer for Imperial Russia 2.0 to the Russian Federation of 28 Member State as partner, friend and neighbor of the European Union. Russia, though might not accept such a policy transformation and indeed offer from the EU but it finds itself in an ever-escalating negative downward spiral. The more aggressive Russia is the less we will buy Russian energy. And today still the Russian budget depends 36% on oil and gas revenue. http://www.factosphere.com/pubfinance/budget/budgetstruct The more aggressive Russia is, the more European politicians, taxpayers and consumer will be ready for the costs to reduce, substitute or potentially boycott Russian energy imports to the EU and possible to all NATO members. That will be costly and Russian oil and gas might find other buyers but a lot of demands still depend on the EU and the West. But ETR and many outfits are arguing for a European Energy Independence Tax and this is not an easy step. But the last 4 years are already led to many improvement in European energy policy from reducing demand to increasing alternative energy production and many measures and reasons like technology improvement and new production methods but we can find alternatives to buy and this is hard for Russia as seller. And ultimate the customer is the king and not the producer. It is the European economy, which creates value with the raw energy input Russia is lucky to have below it soil and not the other way round. The more aggressive Russia is the easier for the European politics to justify higher costs for the European energy consumer and Russia will receive less revenue to produce arms and pay armies potentially used against us and our friends and neighbors or innocent people elsewhere. And why should we finance aggressive Russia posing like a global bully with our energy bills? So if Russia continues its imperialism grandstanding based on the illusion of financial capacity it will reduce this capacity faster than anybody can imagine. And friends in Budapest or former Chancellors will reach the point of usability very fast in case of further escalation. And the longer the conflict continues the longer the sustainably spread of sinking revenues and higher expenditure continues the faster the reserves melt away and the faster the point of collapse will come. And remember the year 1998 in August and shiver and the pent up regional dissatisfaction after 18 years of Putins hard fist can be only imagined when people in the periphery see their elite spending the spoils of Russia in amazing ventures like influencing US and EU policy with possible real effects but very questionable returns for the taxpayers of the Russian regions still living in security and rights and infrastructure conditions considerable below the potential of the state blessed with great people and almost limitless natural resources. Spending them on President races and political parties in the EU is really very questionable for the Siberian or Jakutian SME taxpayer. Good, people anyhow to not matter one might say in dictatorships. But the Russian Federation 2017 is not the Soviet Union of Stalin. People matter and Russia has elections and we are entering now in a election year and people in Russia are smart and have internet access and we saw widespread protest during the 2011 to 2012 period and the same people are out there and not happy and Putin knows that. And Putin is now 65. Will he stay on? Like Adenauer to his 80ies or enjoy his billions traveling the world? And will anybody after him have the acumen to continue this unique style of charm and cunning brutality building the biggest Kleptocracy in the world and playing off friends and foes and mastering divide and rule at home and on world stage in his style? Such personality driven systems are hard to continue and in all probability, a more nationalistic Russian leader after him let us say a Russian Milosevic more insecure and more inapt will only speed up the decline. Or will there be a more moderate pro Western leader? Who knows now? What ETR want to outline and build a consensus is that we as the West, NATO and EU and all partners of the International Order post WWII and the UNO should plan for a scenario how to support the Russian Federation to a RF 28 new based on the EU model as that is the most advanced model currently there for such a complex situation and is the way forwards to help the Russian Federation. In the 1990ies we were all not ready and we knew to less about the RF and the RF was as well not ready. The RF of 2018 is a much more developed situation and so is the EU. And it is as well our question how and if and in what way we want to help if we want and if we want to help massively. And it would be a major mistake to sit all around in Moscow toe tipping each other and outbidding each other to work with the reformist centralist government possible having little effect on the ground in the 17 Million km2 Federation. That is another essential reason to prepare to support along the EU 28 RF 28 concept for support the transformation once it happens in a massive, effective and sustainable manner with serious impact for a transformation of all of the Russian Federation in a reasonable concept. The moment is change in Russia is coming and we have to be prepared this time with a sustainable and proven concept for the last Empire of the World to turn into a successful Union or Federation of 28 Member States build on the European success model of EU 28.

Part 3 Pax Europeana 2017

The International Support and Mechanism for the new European Partnership between the EU 28 and the RF 28

In this section we will discuss the international framework required and the new institutions, which will be required to ensure success of the EU 28 and RF 28 in a new European Partnership.

Supporting the transformation of the Russian Federation of today – Putin Empire 2.0 into a modern Federation based on rule of law, human and property rights and federalist principle and a full market economy will be the task of the coming decades. It will be a global challenges but the thrust of the burden will be with the European partners of the new Russian Federation. The EU will – as outlined above – start a Member States Partnering program first in history and significant in size, 1% of each 28 MS GDP devoted to support and develop its peer in the Russian Federation. We have outlined the appropriate couple already. For the 7 bigger MS of the EU working with the 7 bigger Western MS of Russia this will be a challenge but they are big states and have a vital interest in security and prosperity in the Russian Federation and have major capacities and just to list and remind the reader. ETR is proposing 3 partnerships in Northern European Russia with Denmark-Kaliningrad MS, UK-Karelia MS and the region north, Sweden and the Komi MS and the 3 regions north and 3 Central Russian MS with Petersburg-Baltica MS with France, Central Russian MS with Germany and Don MS with Poland and Kuban MS with Italy. These are big MS of EU and they have and as well will need the capacity, as these are the most populated MS of the RF 28. But ETR is proposing for the 3 other regions of the RF 28 the Volga Benelux, the Caucasus-Caspian and Northern Asia to add a second partnership state from Europe and Western key allies from North America and East Asia ready for share and contribute for a European Union –Russian Federation Partnership of 28 to 28 MS.

Europe is more than the EU, we have 21 more countries on the way to EU or NATO or for some reason not but certainly in Europe and certainly ready to help in the most challenges task of the century. We have the NATO Member Turkey, the 4 EFTA members and ETR is recommending Turkey to join EFTA anyhow so that is one group which we recommend to support the Volga Benelux, we have the RCC –or 6 Western Balkans countries which we recommend to support the Caucasus- Caspian and we have the EaP Countries which we recommend to support the MS of the RF 28 in Asia. This now adds up to 5 EFTA and Turkey, 6 WB, 6 EaP makes 17 and we need 21 for these 3 mega regions of the Russian Federation to make 21 plus 7 only with one pair in the Western region and we are again at 28. So we ask the 4 major allies of North America and East Asia if they want to join in and support the RF 28. We propose to include the USA, Canada, Japan and South Korea as well to help, possible not with a 1% of GDP as that would be hard to ask as they are more distant and some will want to help the whole Russian Federation and certainly the USA and Japan will help significant everywhere but we would like to assign them as well on MS and now we will outlined in detail which MS of the RF with which MS of the EU and with which additional twin we propose to partner to support the development of all 28 MS of the RF 28 in a dynamic and reasonable manner for bring the RF 28 to modern levels of human rights and development during the first decade of such a new partnership not too loose time again in chaos and competence struggle until another Russian strongman might take over power in Central Russia and possible conquer the rest of the Russian Federation in a hard way like the Red Army in the Civil War or buy or threaten it like Putin has done in the 2000ies. By the way one might ask why not include China in this partnership agenda and of course China is welcome to develop infrastructure as part of the Silk Road Agenda and to invest but not to partners as the sensitivity to Chinese immigration are too high in the Russian federation public and the whole propose of the RF 28 is to stabiles the Russian Federation and the make it as successful like the EU 28. China is welcome as friend and neighbor and for specific tasks and investor but not in this partnership agenda. As well the rest of the world if welcome as investor but not in such direct MS partnership agenda but all the world shall contribute to the RF 28 via investment as well via IFI and the world development institutions but as well the tasks in the Arab, Latin American, Asia and African parts of the world will require attention and funds and so including Brazil, South Africa and India or Saudi Arabia might be tempting but will they as well share 1% of GDP for the Russian development? All will be welcome for help and investment but for this specific and quite unique partnership agenda the EU 28 and the European states and allies of the West in NATO and Asia and future partners of the RF 28 will be asked to contribute in massive manner for minimum a decade and as they are as well the closest neighbors and as well able and ready to help during the most decisive transformation of the coming decades.

Let us start with the Central Volga – possible best to see as the new Volga Benelux. Fitting very well with the Benelux States just it is 5 of the Member States there in the Volga Benelux and we will add the EFTA and Turkey to that group in the Volga Benelux. And so we have 3 partners from the Benelux asked Finland for Mari El and here Lichtenstein fits very well in from the EFTA group, the northwestern Republic of the Volga Benelux, inhabited with a people related to the Finns so that is a fit, and the south Western part of the Volga Benelux a new Member State called Chuva, with which Hungary MS partners already and here Iceland can help and then it is simple in the Volga Benelux with Tartastan flat and full of oil fitting with the Netherlands and here Norway can help and Bashkhoristan to Belgium and where Turkey can help and Orenburg to Luxemburg and Switzerland who would not like to have Luxemburg and Switzerland as partners in Orenburg. So that is the Volga Benelux of 5 fitting from Hungary and Finland and the 3 Benelux and will be squeezed in between Kazakhstan and the Central Russian Member State. And so good from the start to have a Benelux kind cooperation platform and who better can help then the Benelux experts in regional cooperation? That is quite a perfect fit with EFTA and Turkey here in the Volga Benelux of 5 new MS of the RF 28.

The two Caspian European Russian MS Partnership are clear with Kalmykistan Member State and Bulgaria MS and here South Korea would be a great fut to support this partnership. And Astrakhan MS and Romania, they have the same position at Black Sea and Caspian and will be a great fit and Japan can help here. A lot can be achieved together. It will help to bring the Black Sea and the Caspian Region together and makes a lot of interconnectivity possible.

For the 6 northern Caucasus Republics it is always a challenge, as sadly the same negative stereotypes exist towards the Caucasus in Russia as towards the Balkans in the EU. But it is quite simple. Greece to help Dagestan at the Caspian Sea, possible Alexander the Great was the last Greek to visit but there are for sure some still there. Albania from the WB group would be good to help here. Cyprus is small and can help with Ingushetia and possible Macedonia would be a great fit here. Ireland is used to trouble and has overcome them inside the EU and can serve as partner of Chechnya and here the Republic of Kosovo can help very well. As Malta for Ossetia, a Persian people living in the Russian Federation in an isolated mountain range the similarities are obvious and Montenegro is the best match from the WB countries. And Circassia and Balkaria have a lot in common as well some shared tradition and people where Slovenia and Croatia can shared some experiences and both Serbia and Bosnia would fit very well. Surely it is more complicated but from the start we should work along the existing MS inside the RF and there was lot of gerrymandering and sad imperialist divide and rule in the similar to the Balkans. The Caucasus between Russian, Iran and Turkey for basically forever has this structure now and how the MS of the RF 28 are called is their own decision and all of them have to be governed along the Council of Europe minority rights regulation and so we recommend the EU MS states Slovenia and Croatia who as well are very similar in tradition and ethnicity and history but have settled in modernity and in matured measure of conflict resolution inside the EU and so should Circassia and Balkaria. So suddenly a challenging regions has all the fitting partners. Let us recount from West to East - Slovenia with Circassia and supported by Serbia, Croatia with Balkaria supported by Bosnia, Malta with Ossetia supported by Montenegro, Cyprus with Ingushetia supported by Macedonia and Greece with Dagestan supported by Albania, Bulgaria with Kalmykya and South Korea and Astrakhan with Romania supported by Japan and we are done here with 8 and this add up to 20 partnership fitting and on the road for freedom, security and prosperity. Never forget it was the purposeful policy of the Russian Empire and the Stalin Soviet Union to make things complicated and hard to understand under the age-old principle of divide and rule. But we want to work in modern rule based partnership with the EU 28 with the EU 28 and look what trouble we have been in the Balkans and the islands from islands to Cyprus and we have found a way to freedom, prosperity based on security and federalism and the same is possible in the RF 28. And we have achieved amazing progress in the Balkans and the same is possible for and in the Caucasus and the Caspian region.

Even in the more challenging Caucasus-Caspian Region and the 8 Member States there. And for sure as well in the Asian part of the Russian Federation with 8 Member States waiting for their partner in the EU 28 to celebrate their European partnership with the RF 28.

8 EU & RF Member State Partnership in Asia

And then to Central and Northern Asia with 8 remaining regions and here it is simple as well. It looks big and it is and so let us keep, it simple and clear. No more Stalin sophisticated confusion.

Ural, Siberia, Jakutia and Vladivostok Member State for the big northern Asia anyhow not very densely populated and the 4 central Asian Member States Altai, Tuva, Burjatia and Amur Member State. And we are done. At 28 to 28 member States RF to EU with 8 in Asia – some big some small and the 8 working very well in the new federal System of a new RF 28. But who should partner with big and rich Ural and Siberia? ETR is proposing that the Ural Member State partners with the Czech Republic supported by Ukraine and Siberia with the Slovak Republic supported by Belarus. These are Central European State very developed and advanced who can support the transformation of Ural and Siberian MS inside the RF very well and the regional competent partner from the EaP countries. Pacific and Sea faring Jakutia and Vladivostok MS shall partner with the Spain and Portugal our Atlantic member states as ideal match and here Canada can help with Jakutia and the USA with the 3 current subjects of the current RF to form the Vladivostok MS of the RF 28. To add Canada and the USA to classical non-colonial powers and pillars of NATO will secure this region of perceived threats and disintegration and similar fantasies. So 4 northern Asian Russian Federation Member States with 4 from the EU Czech and Slovak MS and the Spain and Portugal MS with Ural, Siberia, Jakutia and the Vladivostok MS this is a perfect match. And Ukraine, Belarus, Canada and the USA to help here matches as well the size of the challenge.

And for the Central or Southern Asian Member States of the RF 28 we have four MS of the EU to match. Austria and the 3 Baltic MS of the EU. Austria can partner with Amur, both alpine and land locked countries and Austria can help in tourism and agriculture and SME for the Chinese market and here Azerbaijan can help. Altai can partner with Estonia and here Moldova can help. Latvia with Tuva and here Georgia can help and Lithuania with Burjatia MS and here Armenia can help. This is very effective as the Baltic’s have been in the SU and are now in EU and can help with reforms and transformation in very effective manner and they can share the experience or reform for SU to EU and as well the regional Baltic cooperation council for these Central Asia tiger of the future. These are 8 added in Asia and so we have 28 here and there and 28 fitting partnership to intense cooperation and build a working public diplomacy and share the experience of the living in a never perfect European Union based on federal and power sharing and the experience of the 28 Member States ready for a new European Partnership based on similar values which we share, freedom, human and property rights, political presentation and the rule of law and transparent government and opportunities for all no matter in which part to the European Union or the Russian Federation we all live between the Atlantic and the Pacific united on one Eurasia continent and all praying and working for peace. Such a partnership approach would help us as well to learn more about the Russian Federation and understand the share the issues and concerns and as well explain that we are some form or modern construct this European Union which has overcome all the imperialist or colonial past and we are everything but aggressive and that is why we have such issue with the present action of the last European Empire government for Moscow and we would like to meet all of Russians region and citizens to communicate direct and build 28 new bridges above what divided us right now and understand what united is. And it is sure the best way forward to build such a new partnership between the EU 28 and the RF 28 for peace and security and prosperity for all citizens of the EU and the RF 28 and invite the EaP, EFTA, WB, NATO and Japan and South Korea and so there are all in 49 countries ready to share in to transform the Russian Federation into a working and lasting, peaceful and free, sovereign and prosperous Federation and neighbor based on human and property right and respecting International Law and Treaties and being a successful partner in business and peace and a great place for citizens and investors and bringing the whole Eurasian continent to new levels of prosperity based on security, values and the rule of law.

A Russian Federation of 28 MS based on European Federal Principles and the rule of law and an new Eastern Partnership should clearly have a permanent seat in the UNO. It will be a powerful but as well peaceful and non-aggressive Federation similar to the EU of 28. As ETR has argued in Pax Europeana Part 1 the seat on the UNO Security Council of France should be transferred to the EU and the seat of the Russian Federation as it is at present should be frozen due to Crimea, Donbas and Aleppo. Each of them would be enough reason for such a move as a UNO Security Council member has the obligation to keep the international order and not to break it. In massive cases like now with the Russian Federation it is anyhow clear that there is no justification for a continued membership of Russia on the Security Council not at least because the whole idea of the UN is ridiculed and serious work is anyhow boycotted. But for a RF 28 and a new Russian Federation build on our join European and indeed global principles of human and property rights, freedom, rule of law, democracy and good governance for sure there shall be a vote and a veto on the big table for a big country indeed a federation of 28 Member States. Together with the 10 Countries and Federations ETR has proposed to be on the Security Council in March 2017 – USA, EU, UK, China, India, OAS, AU, IEC, ASEAN+ and of course the RF 28. 10 seats in the future and one for the Russian Federation of 28MS, please see the details in the Pax Europeana but in short USA, EU, UK, China, India and RF28 is anyhow clear and one for the regional bodies from America, Africa, SE Asia and for the Islamic Economic Community, the southern twin of the EU for the Islamic world based in Istanbul proposed in details in the Pax proposals of March 2017. So the RF 28 will be treated not such with respect but will be one of the 10 most powerful states and groups in the world appropriate and reasonable for a Union of 28 MS and 142 Million people in a world of 8 Billion and growing and with nukes. Nukes do matter and of the 10 most will have it or for the OAS it will be the USA, for the IEC Pakistan and it will be only the ASEAN+ and the AU, which will not have them. Anyhow, the world will be much safer as the confrontation with Russia will be turned into a partnership. And such a new RF 28MS will be a close ally of NATO possible one day a full member and a pillar and exporter of security. But that might be a long way and in between we will gradually work in that direction. Of course, NATO will securing the direct border of the RF 28 with NATO along the Baltic’s, Ukrainian, Black Sea and Caucasus as most, if not all west of the RF will have joined NATO by then. Maybe Belarus not, but Armenia for sure once the EU and NATO are ready for the Caucasus 3 and given the complex situation of all 3 states there only the triple solution of EU, NATO and a Federalist System for the 3 states in the southern Caucasus will be a sustainable solution and best for all 3 to join the EU and NATO and transform into such federal states themselves to solve the open issues and follow the EU example of German-French reconciliation – what a powerful narrative for the Caucasus sadly not well told in the region. We are like specialists for healing ancient wounds and animosities this is the European miracle – healing old conflicts from Southern Tyrol, to Ireland, for Alsace to Poland, from Hungary to Romania and as well in Bosnia and betweens Serbia and Kosovo and Greece and Macedonia and Greece and Albania and there are so many.

Some you might not have heard of because they are now only for history books but they all have been real and acrimonious. And Europe is the healing room for such conflicts in often boring and a bit complicated meetings and discussion and negotiations and federal multi level stakeholder dialogue and yes sounds boring but it is very effective and called democracy, rule of law and human rights and federalism.

And of course we have not only the EU – but it matters most for sure. Good, together with NATO. But we have as well the Council of Europe, the OSCE, the EaP+6, and the SEE Sector Reform Organizations, which matter for the new Russian Federation of 28 MS and will be open for it. Yes and clearly none of them should be for the current Imperial Russia 2.0. To be clear how can it be in the prime bodies of human rights of Europe and behave like it does in Crimea and Donbas and Aleppo? For sure Russia should be neither in OSCE, not in CoE and not in the EaP and not in the SEE reform organization like RCC and CEFTA and the 15 others who have done so much good for progress in conflict torn SEE in last 15 years.

But the RF 28 should be in all of them and after it is established and the RF has withdrawn from all the territory it occupies in Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia and of course Syria and the RF 28 process is started this major effort which be supported fully by RF28 Membership in all 4 pillars of European Security and Human Rights and Eastern support mechanism and yeas Russian Federation of 28 should be in the Eastern partnership and full offer membership perspective in the Internal Market of the EU and as well the Central Asian 5 and Afghanistan should be included, actually they should be included in EaP already now and the concept and offer of EaP deeping by this Internal Market accession perspective as a offer for the countries not ready for political accession, a system which has shown great economic results in Turkey and this would be the right offer now for the Central Asian 5 and Afghanistan.

OSCE will have a major task to help with democratization and rule of law in the RF 28 and of course the major task will be with the Council of Europe once the RF28 membership is again possible after the freeze of Russian membership then the Council of Europe should have a new center and be moved from Strasbourg France to Kyiv Ukraine to be closer to the most important task it will have for the coming 50 years to bring all 28 MS of RF 28 to European level of human and property rights legislation, regulation, administration, jurisdiction, implementation and reality.

A major task for a old lady but there can be not more honorable and worthy task and it is the task for the Council of Europe which in many ways will be the key link to the RF 28 in many aspects and no better location than Kyiv for it. The Council of Europe, the EU itself via the EaP, the OSCE and their excellent contribution is well know and will be very beneficial for the RF 28 but the RF28 will be supported as well by the SEE sector reform organization now 18 and possible 15 more in the coming years to reform important sectors like energy, education, energy response, demining, environment, health, trade in the regional reform country contact on a intergovernmental basis between the SEE countries currently in different stage of the reform and their secretariat being very capable to support various reform levels and readiness and build and assist in capacities are all levels and topic. These have shown very excellent results from the time of the stability pact for SEE and the last 15 years and are now gradually supporting Moldova and partly Ukraine despite Ukraine being very reluctant to see itself as SEE whereas this is not about geography but about reform stages and the SEE reform transition will now more and more help the EaP simple because they want and need it and the Balkan is gradually and for some surprisingly fast moving to the EU standards and soon to the EU itself. And the capacity for assist reform will be shifting from SEE to EE and than the RF 28. Once the RF 28 is ready. But the mechanism is the same like with the logic of the energy. The more aggressive Russia is the less energy Europe will buy to reduce the financial possibility of the aggressor. The same with enlargement and reform in SEE and Eastern Europe where enlargement to SEE was basically frozen after 2008 financial crisis and Croatia lucky to squeeze in in 2013 and here come Mr Putin and invaded Ukraine and suddenly the Berlin Process for the Balkans come and Montenegro is in NATO and the EU is much more ready to enlarge than before 2014.

It is no surprise for all who have read Jean Monnet and studied the start of the EU project in 1956 and the years before and without the cold war and the Soviet threat from 1946 onwards and the shock of the Korea war and Suez there would be no will to unite the antagonist of World War 2 in anything and certainly not in a European supranational project. Just 11 years are the end of the most terrible war in Europe ever with the survivors in all countries now political leaders, journalist or voters it is no surprise that this was a challenges and without the Korea war and Suez and sure Budapest and these dramatic and tragic event there would have been no chance for Messina and the Rome treaties which we just celebrated in March 2017 so gracefully in Rome and in Kyiv.

Happy 60-anniversary Europe and thank you Soviet Union today on your birthday the October Revolution that you have united Europe by threatening to take it over, thank you but we grow above ourselves and started building this Europe. And what a success – not only seen from 1956 and seen every day when you pass a EU border east.

And the same is true for today; Russian aggression is making Balkan accession reality much faster than it was foreseeable in 2013. And a Ukraine EU membership which was a dream of a few Euro optimist like ETR was not shared with electorates neither in the EU nor in Ukraine until Russian aggression in Donbas led to a new Ukraine identity manifestation and a European Ukraine was born and it has all the right and all the reason to join the EU and many in the EU start to understand that this is the only way to counter the Russian aggression. It is still not decided that Ukraine will be in EU but the changes in the EU towards Ukraine and in Ukraine towards the EU are unimaginable seen from 2013 perspective. And the rest is only a matter of hard work over time.

And the more aggression and threat and force from Russia the more dynamic this will get and it in the Caucasus. The time of fear and paralysis is over and Europe is always growing slowly but steadily with the challenge of the day. But we are not enlarging beyond reason, an obviously always based on consent of all and always step by step we are open and based on values, freedom and democracy and we would like to partner with the RF 28 in such a good neighborly basis and share our experience and build a common future based on freedom and federalism and pay for it massively and change the reality of Eurasia from misery and threat of force to new unprecedented levels for prosperity based on partnership, common security and common benefits as the potential for all side in such a project are so high - as the misery and pain we have inflicted on each other in the past and the choice is for us all on this sad anniversary what way to choice and what road to go? Prosperity and Peace based on partnership and federalism in freedom and security of sad decline in threat and force as Russia has seen since 2013 and in fact Russians has seen since 1917. And please see the golden age of the Russian Empire in the Witte and Stoplyn Phase from 1880 to 1914 what prosperity that has developed and everywhere today there is the architectural heritage of past wealth visible among present decline and please what future we want to choice in Europe and in Russia? Let us build develop a European Partnership between the European Union of 28 and the Russian Federation of 28 Member State –united in freedom, security and peace and leading to new prosperity levels from Atlantic to Pacific. The is the vision ETR would like to propose and promote on the occasion of the sad anniversary of the 100 years of the most terrible moment of recent history back in October 1917. Let us make sure that the next century will be much better. In Europe are are on the right way and have achieved a lot. Now it is time for the Russian Federation of 28 Member States based in Freedom and Federalism. We are here to help, support and contribute.

Part 4 of Pax Europeana II – Towards a Partnership of the EU 28 with the Russian Federation of 28 MS

Can it be done and when?

Nukes still matter, a lot. And will in the future.

How about the nukes? Will this lead to nuclear war? These are the anxious question Western policy makers ask when talking about a possible Russian disintegration scenario, Russian aggression in Ukraine and the future of Russia and its relation with the West. Nukes matters, a lot and after the experiences of Ukraine and the Budapest memorandum it will be a challenge to convince all possible post RF states to give up the nukes on their territory but no matter how much the West will try and so all effort will be focused on keeping Russia united. And in the shadow of its own nuclear umbrella and Western fear of break up and nuclear proliferation President Putin understands he can more of less do what he wants as long he does not NATO borders and meets on regional force inflicting so much costs that it would be hard to explain away to the Russian public and as long his currently still deep pockets allow him. He has done it in Georgia, is going it in Ukraine on 2 fronts and will do it again.

There could be more nuclear powers as a result of the possible break up of the RF. The northern Asian 4, we call them MS but let us assume they turn into full States in case of break up than Ural, Siberia, Jakutia will have the financial muscle to continue with nuclear arms and for sure the 3 central Russian MS we have defined if there is such a break up scenario- which all side will try to avoid - as well Petersburg- Baltica, the Don Republic and of course Central Russia could find the resources to keep nuclear powers for long term and keep the inherited nukes on their territory. Instead of 9 nuclear powers currently and one of them the RF we have 7 more making that exclusive club to 15? And all maybe very competitive and for sure some of the other might have as well nukes left and will not be easily persuaded to hand them over or decommission them after what happened to Ukraine in 2014-something for sure everybody in the world understood that only nukes provide stability in the big power context outside NATO.

No, the world, and the West really shivers at this prospect and so the break up of the RF will be fought and that is as well ETR is proposing the RF 28, the Federation of Russian based on 28 Member States based on EU freedom and federalism. But as well in this case a new Federation of 28 MS might see less reason to spend similar funds on nuclear deterrent simple because there will be less threat and indeed cooperation and partnership on the Eurasia continent. And ETR does not share the dream of a nuclear free world – once such weapons have been investment they will not disappear but have to be handled carefully and in a agreed balance but ETR would be most happy to see much less of them in a more secure and peaceful setting with very positive results for taxpayers and prosperity. Keeping such expensive weapons with high maintenance costs and readiness factor is very expensive and basically fully unproductive as hopefully the world will never see such weapons used again. So again much better to invest in a improved global order and security infrastructure than in such atavistic but necessary tool and the purpose of deterrent and showing off the capacity would be certainly as well be effective with only 20% of current war head globally.

Never forget what is being the rational behind nuclear weapons is suicidal universal self-destruction. And it did not happen during the cold war, not in 1991 and will not happen during the break up of the RF if and when that ever will be happening or during the transformation of the RF into the RF 28 which we advocate. In reality there will be no nuclear war as the stake are too high.

Careful we should be -yes, afraid no. Nobody will attack. And the idea that a Russia civil war will go nuclear by the central powers nuking for example the secessionist region? Look, we have to see that Stalin does not rule the Russia Federation in 2017. To nuke your own people might not endear you to your people as well so this cannot be excluded but remains highly unlikely.

A break up anyhow might happen in a surprisingly organized manner given the experience of the 1991 break up of the SU and the high stakes of the process. And we should get used to the idea if we do not offer a better alternative like RF 28 – the present situation will lead to bankruptcy. The idea of having 28 new countries instead on one is a concrete possibility in the coming years and in the medium term Putin military adventurism will result in this.

But currently, sadly Putin can finance his military interventions from Russia’s state reserve and diverting taxpayer funds from development of Russian regions to militarization due to a nationalist hype he created to build a basis for his 3rd and soon 4th mandate.

And the sad reality is that the fear the Russian nuclear capacity is so big that Putin can do all these terrible crimes in Georgia, Ukraine and Syria mostly unpunished and as well he might and based on past experience will act again – unpunished and protected by his own nuclear umbrella and our fear. Prepare for summer 2018 World Cup, and who will be next?

We do not know. But during the Pejing Olympics Putins imagination saw him already in Georgia and he did it. And during Sochi we was mentally already on Crimea. First celebrating with the world and than creating facts against the world order on the ground with Russian tanks. And we might have another Berlin 1936 moment in summer 2018 and who know who will ne next? Again Ukraine, the Caucasus or central Asia or creating new facts in the Arctic and creating the narrative of immediate threat to Russia by migrating Eskimos we have to be ready for all such nonsense and pain. Look, as discussed, let us pray this will not happen but the 3rd time we should be a bit better prepared.

Who is next in September 2018?

Let us discuss the following scenario. Putin will be re-elected for a 4th term in March 2018, invite the world to the World Cup in summer 2018 to celebrate Russia and use this cover to prepare his 3rd strike. He did it with the Olympic in Beijing and the War on Georgia and with the Soochi Winter Olympics with Crimea and Donbas and the War on Ukraine. And how will be next on his menu after the World Cup in August 2018 which the world having a Munich 38 moment again and Putin plotting his move against – yes against whom? Maybe nobody? Let us hope so. But there are plenty of neighbors who might be well advised to prepare and sleep less and work hard in 2018. Option there is from a coup in Minsk to trouble in the Southern Caucasus to Kazakhstan or more on Ukraine?

Ukraine is the only one in Europe now really well prepared and so the costs would be high and the narrative complicated and so a new target is more likely. The main idea is to hide under the nuclear cover, be fast and aggressive against a weak opponent and have maximum damage done and create a new reality with minimum resistance and what a great start for the 4th term for the Eternal President.

He will not attack NATO that is not the idea to provoke a big reaction but to change the global order a reap of the 2014 action and again pushing the lines and the response is the best guess for that crucial summer 2018. Anyhow if not much better and let us pray to the Lord. But let us as well be prepared in all aspects just not to be surprised a 3rd time because a 3rd time would be foolish. We are not fools.

Anyhow all the mechanics of the imperial overstretch leading to break up by bankruptcy will only accelerate by the 3rd strike and so the boiling point of the Russian transformation crisis can be expected during the 2nd part of Putins 4th mandate around 2022 when the money runs out, the reserves gone, Putin turning 70 and his successors bullying for power. But as we have discussed nukes matter and the West will be of similar help to Georgia, Kazhasktan or Azerbaijan or Belarus like in 2008 and 2014. None, at the start, sadly we have to be clear. And only politically for many months after that and the financial and technical help will come but slowly and gradually but it will. Ultimately, there will be more and it will be very effective but Putin might have and will have his 3rd free ride under the nuclear umbrella and the West will just watch. As long as he does not touch NATO borders but he won’t. And so long as we are not prepare but we will. Hopefully we will. And what can we do to prepare against an aggressive bully who under a powerful nuclear shield is using massive force against its underdeveloped smaller neighbors claiming some kind of bizarre right to do that? No such right ever existing nor will it ever nor will the West never accept it. But we tend to shy away for fear of nuclear escalation and so we have to find ways to support our neighbors and friends and work for reforming and transforming our security architecture and economic system in a manner that is credible, effective and not escalating the situation but gradually leading to a new Russian Federation of 28 Member States as a peaceful partner in freedom, federalism and prosperity based on human and property rights defended by the Rule of Law. Lucky there are 4 major transformation leverages, which Europe has and which allow just such a medium terms development for - yes a better world.

1. European Energy Independence 2. European Reform & Enlargement of EU and NATO 3. A new partnership with Central Asia 4. The European Southern Twin – IEC

Some of the proposals, which we outline in the coming chapters have been already elaborated in the March 2017 ETR Pax Europeana please allow us to refer to that publication.

http://flattax-europe.eu/yliko/pdf/Newsletters/PAX_EUROPEANA_10_March_2017.pdf In a short overview ETR is proposing to focus from now on massively on European Energy Independence – mainly from Russia and see this as the central objective and not climate change or CO2, which is a much longer-term threat. Russia is now aggressive and European has to discuss energy reform under this perspective and priority. This will lead as well to great reduction of CO2 and will comply with many environmental proposals but not with all. We will discuss this in detail below. Secondly we have to speed up EU and NATO enlargement to the EU 37 and invite and promote NATO towards the Balkans, the European Neutrals and the EaP countries and reform the EU and NATO towards much more effective unions of values and security and integrated all who inspire to join much faster than currently thought through a mix of significant reforms as we will outline below. Thirdly we have to build a new security system similar to NATO and indeed partner of NATO based on a 3 pillars Japan, South Korea and Afghanistan – based as well in Kabul and with all NATO members like in NATO and with a similar system and structure like NATO but a adopted mandate for the Central Asian reality. It will be the new CATO –Central Asian Treaty Organization. And the 4 pillar is the IEC, the Southern Partnership of the EU turned into the Islamic Economic Community IEC, basically the southern twin of the EU based on the EU integration experience of the 1960ies and 1970ies starting modestly but supporting peaceful economic integration from Morocco to Central Asia again based on clear membership criteria and an accession process. These are the 4 measures we anyhow should to not just in the Russian threat Cold War2.0 context but will only be possible in this context and will have the effect on the Russian Federation and in mean time we have to prepare for the RF 28 in academic, economic, and political and institutions terms as outline above. But now for the 4 key pillars for Pax Europeana as outlined above.

Part 5 of Pax Europeana II – Towards a Partnership of the EU 28 with the Russian Federation of 28 Member States

4 major transformation leverages for Europe to promote the European Partnership Agenda with the Russian Federation 28

Despite the challenges of the time and the limits of concrete measure against Russian aggression some see, there are 4 major transformation leverages, which Europe has in the perspective of ETR and which allow us to support the transformation of the RF 28 once that will happen and to effectively counter the Russian challenge of the Cold War 2.0. These will ensure that aggression pays off only in short to medium term. Long term –and not very long term the peaceful and value-based player will succeed and support the transformation of the current aggressor to the European style federation – the Russian Federation of 28 Member States. We have 4 concrete transformation leverages, which will be very effective.

5. European Energy Independence 6. European Reform & Enlargement of EU and NATO 7. A new partnership with Central Asia - CATO 8. The European Southern Twin – IEC

Some of the proposals, which we outline in the coming chapter, have been already elaborated in the March 2017 ETR Pax Europeana please allow us to refer to that publication.

1. European Energy Independence

No worries this will be no complicated essay on energy policy. ETR just want to raise the issue simple and clear. Sending our money to Russia so Russia sends their tanks to Ukraine and their airplane to Syria is a folly. Point blank stupid. And to be even clearer. Trading and so financing the enemy is simple treason. Obvious, it is not the European consumer filling the car who is committing treason but what about the European energy executives or the political lobbying for Russian energy interests in Europe? These are certainly foreign agents active for a hostile power and simple declaration is not enough, they should be called traitors as they are. There is nothing great or promising going to Moscow and meeting Putin and asking for peace and coming back with energy contract and claiming this was a peace mission. We all understand the power of money and energy is big money but and all is fine to an extent until 2014. Now it is no longer and some in the EU have the change their business model and yes as well for the consumers this will mean higher prices. ETR has tax payer advocates is always careful but full scale war is certainly more expensive and spending massive on re-armament to cool war level is for sure more expensive than investing in our European Energy Independence. And this is what we should do.

See where the energy from Russia goes now and invest in being able to live without it and all European Energy CEOs who tell us this is nonsense should be investigated for treason first and made comply of their State shareholders as most of them have still majority state shareholders should simple put the priorities clear.

Why do we have so much state ownership of energy companies in EU left anyhow? And as we have it, let us simple clarify the priorities and dealing with the enemy is clearly not one of them. Now let us quote the EU: The EU imports more than half of all the energy it consumes. Its import dependency is particularly high for crude oil (more than 90%) and natural gas (66%). The total import bill is more than €1 billion per day. Many countries are also heavily reliant on a single supplier, including some that rely entirely on Russia for their natural gas. https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/energy-strategy-and- energy-union/energy-security-strategy And let us draw the right conclusion from the threat of Russian aggression since 2014, the energy situation, climate and economics and what the right strategy is for Europe.

European needs to produce more energy. So we need to keep coal thermo and nuclear power online, popular or not we have to postpone phasing out nuclear and coal until Russian is a good neighbor and a RF 28 is reality. So long as Russia is a hostile, aggressive power we are energy dependent we cannot reduce our own production any further actually we need to massively increase it. We can of course invest in technology to make it saver and cleaner but both have to produce energy and domestic, European coal is good, nuclear as long as it is not from Russia is better than financing the aggressor from the East. And we can take that later offline once Russia is no threat anymore and we have to reduce CO2 in other sectors. And here comes what the climate people will like. As we import 90% of crude oil as let us reduce that part and invest massively in reducing petrol consumption in Europe, and it will be good for climate and energy independence.

Let us replace petrol for heating with gas, LPG not from Russia but elsewhere and let us replace petrol for mobility with electricity and let us all do that not by forcing consumers and SME but by leadership of the public sector.

Let us ensure that all public bodies of EU, EFTA, RCC and EaP buy from 2019 onwards only e-vehicles, then in 2020 extend it to all state owned companies and than in 2020 to all state employees to receive a e-mobility payment bonus.

That is already a lot of cars and people including all public transport and will cost billions, help the environment and independent but not forbid petrol cars or petrol heating system but let us make it more expensive and finance the transition to e-mobility and let the public authorities lead the process and so ensure that there will be as well the infrastructure ready.

All European states, institutions, municipalities like and state owned companies and state employed that is already a lot of the EU economy- too much but in this case it is justifiable.

We have already a lot more alternative energy production but let us have more and yes let us cross finance it. Better than massive military build up.

Same for energy efficiency why not do much more on that? Industry requires massive energy we have to see how many LPG terminals we can build but the pipeline network will stay in business no worries we just need to build the terminal for LPG. http://www.gie.eu/KC/ But, in all aspects to reduce energy consumption, increase efficiency and so costs is anyhow very good for consumers and SMEs and industry and out European payment balance. It is more than a 1 Billion a Day which leaves Europe for energy payment and it seem quite a bad balance and if the USA got this right so please let us focus on shale gas and do as much fracking as feasible. And yes Greens you cannot have it all. The JRC of the EU estimates it is 16 Trillion cubic meters waiting for European consumers. https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/oil-gas-and-coal/shale-gas A lot of Anti fracking NGOs anyhow simple are paid Russian foreign hostile agents e.g.: see the case of Bulgaria which should be treated like that and if the USA can turn around its energy system why shall we not be able to do it? And of course we do it with good technology and in respects to the environment. The costs of it we have to burden the energy consumer and explain the trade off between energy security and high prices or higher military spending. Is anybody ready for a similar defense budgets like during the Cold War? Paying more for energy is never popular but currently very justified and legitimated during a global confrontation like we face today. And we need major funds to build and complete the backbone infrastructure inside the European Union, including EaP, EFTA, RCC and Nato Member Turkey to ensure the infrastructure of pipelines and transmission lines to have the infrastructure for European Energy Independence.

For the pipelines it is best to read the report http://www.4freerussia.org/corruption-pipeline-threat-nord- stream-2-eu-security-democracy/ But for sure we do not need any more pipelines from Russia.

We need to invest in out EU pipelines to be able to shift energy gas, electricity and all via super efficient high level networks from Turkey out NATO partner to Norway our NATO partner and from Portugal to the Baltic’s and ensure that the network is able and strong and not directly from Russia to each of us but in rings and circles and highly interconnected between us. To pay for this a 10% surcharge of all energy consumed is justified and in case of further increased hostility a addition 10% surcharge on energy important from Russia is justified and for each year another 10%? We have to prepare the alternative routes first before we respond by tightening the screw but in any case it is the customer the king and not the supplier.

We have to massively improve the networks to send energy around as it is needed and especially in the Central, Eastern Europe from Ukraine to Turkey to Albania and Estonia this will be a massive investment program to be carried out jointly by EU and MS in the region and financed by the Energy Independence Tax of 10% and administer by the EIB EFSI http://www.eib.org/efsi/ and so ETR supports the Energy consumption tax to finance the European Strategic Energy Independence Financing Facility and yes ETR rarely supports new taxes but this is for the vital strategic objective for European Energy Independence and will support European Unification and is much better than a massive arms race with Russia. In conclusion ETR supports:

1. Yes to European Coal and Nuclear Electricity Generation 2. Massive EU and EFTA, Ukraine and Turkey Networks 3. Less petrol in transport and heating 4. Obligatory e-Mobility for all Public entities and Transport 5. Ambitious targets in heating and energy efficiency 6. More European alternative energy production 7. More LPG terminals and more on LPG 8. A new 10% European Energy Independence Tax on all European Energy consumed collected by the EIB 9. These funds administer by EFSI to finance a major energy network investment place build along European priorities with a major focus on EaP and RCC countries to ensure they are fully connected on modern basis in EU energy union as well physically in network terms with full access to the EFSI 10. Conclusion and principal demand Time for European Energy Independence from Russia A European Common Strategy and Action Plan to reduce European Energy Dependence on Russia to the minimum possible by 2030 in a 12 year corridor 10% minus from 2018 onwards on yearly basis by implementing all the above measure and more to ensure that the target is secured – A European Energy Independence and a end of black mail power by the Russian Federation against Central and CEE and SEE Europe and NATO Member Turkey and future EU and NATO Member Ukraine.

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Pax Europeana- The second transformation leverage for the EU

2. A stronger, united Europe of the EU 37

We have to start to believe in Europe again. After a decade of crisis from 2008 onwards, which has shaken the beliefs of elites and electorates in Europe, we have to turn the ship around. Europe is indeed richer, stronger and more successful than ever. See all figures and facts - we are growing, attracting people and capital and just cross the border into the EU and compare. It is an amazing continent and an amazing political unification project second only to the USA. We are now 510 Million people and 17 Trillion % GDP compared to 1,3 Trillion the Russian Federation has produced in 2016. And per capita the EU is at 33,500$ and have integrated 13 rather less developed countries in the last 13 years and still this is 3 times the Russian result despite we have to import 90% of the petrol consumed and half of the energy. No doubt all could be better, no paradise is on earth - no doubt we have achieved a lot.

Amazing, what was achieved since the end of communism, in just 28 years in Central and SEE Europe - the reunification of Europe - this is the most remarkable increase of prosperity, welfare, human rights and development in history. Look at Estonia, Poland, Romania –all 13 new member states - never have they been richer and more developed in their entire history and certainly not a single better day than now since the end of the Empires governing the regions before 1918 and the relative prosperity of all 13 new states to western Europe was never so small than today. Still there is work to be done – but we are just in year 13 after the big round of enlargement – growth and development take time but let us never forget where we have been in 1989 or in 1945 or at anytime before. There was no golden time of prosperity and freedom in the war torn land between the 4 Empires which ended with the Great War after 1918 and it is only the European Union – and US backed NATO which allows security and stability, rule of law and a integration based on Member States equality from the Baltic to the Balkans to bring such levels of unprecedented prosperity to the people, citizens and consumers of all 13 states. Nobody with good faith and science on his side can claim any generation has seen something like the last decade in terms of rights, prosperity and freedom. And of course everybody is complaining but that is the right of free citizens and yes everybody could and should be richer but US or Swiss levels of prosperity take time and investment and possible two century of peace and freedom at home and we were not so lucky east of Vienna. Who expects miracles is a fool, but given where we have been in 1989 it is a close to a miracle what was achieved. Because of Europe, and US backed security in NATO. We should celebrate this every day.

But, true the events of 2008 and since then have shown we are vulnerable and our fundament is fragile. But every political system is –and will always be. Nothing is set in stone and what determines the success of the consent of the governed the trust between people and elite, the flexibility and adaptability of the structure and will to cope with the challenges of the day. And now of the key benchmarks of the readiness of opponents to inflicts damage due to fear form competition. And in this we have see first that all the challenges of the last decade Europe has found the answer and that the Russian Federation was fully aware that a successful EU is a threat and was ready to spend and try what it takes to spoil, hinder, obstruct, undermine or make European Unification more expensive. Let us take it with chivalry as a compliment for the perceived danger a successful European freedom and prosperity project poses for Russian authoritarianisms. And that is what it is. But Putin overdid it. Without his escalation with Crimea and Donbas Europe would have possible dragged its feet further and a second decade of crisis would have ensued. But the annexation of Crimea and the war in Donbas and all the terrible bloodshed happing there has –contrary to his calculations – led to a new resolve of the new European sprit. We are not fully there, yet. But we are getting there and ETR would like to outline what needs to be done now. In short it boils done to one item- belief again in our European project, the European Union.

To be clear what needs to be done now – ETR proposes:

1. We need to enlarge the EU and accelerate EU enlargement and integrated those who aspire to join – the Balkan 6 and Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia by 2029 and Montenegro and Macedonia by 2024 already based on the Bulgarian and Romanian success model - we improve the situation during the process and let us be honest there is a lot to improve even in Austria or Belgium and please everybody stop bad mouthing Bulgaria and Romania – would anybody like to have a less secure and prosperous Black Sea –Eastern Balkans facing Russia? What was done was right, and yes it was complicated but it worked and it will work as well in Balkan 6 and Ukraine and Moldova and Georgia is now anyhow less corrupt and better to do business than some EU member states! Waiting is no solution, conditionality does not work, delaying is helping only Putin and other interested in failure. Get going, Europe! If you do not believe in yourself and European capacity for integration of European countries, who want to join than you have not understood what is Europe and please refrain from public policy in the European Union. Enlargement is not a scenario but an obligation. And who wants to play on time – time matters and be sure the price of insecurity is mounting and the less security and clarity now the higher the costs later- remember the mistakes of Bucharest 2008 back 10 years ago and the price we have to pay now, mounting every day. 2. Support Ukraine – Support it massively and integrate it into the SEE structure and design a major new transformation program –Accelerating EU Accession of Ukraine – A new partnership between the EU Member States and Ukraine with a volume of 1% EU GDP. This needs to be state explicitly because Ukraine matters most to size, significance and the victim of double aggression and the ongoing war in Donbas. ETR has outlined in details what needs to be done in SEE Integration terms and EU enlargement terms to give Ukraine green light to integration and group it with the Balkan 6 in SEE and work hard together for faster results. This is clear. For the massive program ETR is proposing it sound a lot 1% of GDP in European taxpayers funds and of course it is. But ETR is proposing to discuss this in the context of the NATO target of 2% and to agree within NATO to count all additional support the EU MS give to Ukraine as part of the 2% target. ETR considers it entirely useless to build up European forces in such a massive manner when the European anyhow will never use these weapons. There is simple no public mandate for such major use of force in Europe given our history and some like France might and they are free to choice but most wont use it anyhow and it is the Ukrainians who are fighting and dying and they need funds and it is anyhow the USA which secures NATO and Europe and Ukraine and this will not stop – not with Trump nor anybody as it would be a folly. ETR proposes to spend 1% per GDP for Ukraine – as we have outlined until the moment when Russian aggression is ending and than the EU MS will have to shit this 1% of GDP to the new Russian Federation of 28 which will require massive support much more massive than in 1990ies if we want to avoid another Putin line decline in authoritarianism when the post Putin time will come and it will. The 1% of GDP for Ukraine should be divvied in 4 shares of 0,25% each one for Ukrainian Infrastructure via the EIB EFSI, one for EU TA support for Good Governance, one for direct budgetary assistance for the Ukrainian central budget to support the Euro introduction and key reforms ETR has outlined and one for a EU MS – Partnership agenda with on MS per one Ukrainian regions which ETR will outline in coming weeks but it will be like a test case for the EU 28 – RF 28 but for the EU 28 to Ukr 25 ETR will develop this in details asap. 3. Enlarge NATO – first the 4 neutrals in EU – 3 Balkan countries who aspire Northern Macedonia, Republic of Kosovo and Bosnia and offer it to Serbia and of course to Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. This matters most. Security in Europe and it is now the Ukrainians who fight for us and we have to support them more. Neutrality in the EU cannot continue and all EU neutrals should join in 2018, first Austria and Ireland, than Finland and Sweden. That Serbia is now observer in CSTO cannot be acceptable for EU and this has to stop. No new EU member before NATO member and clear yes to MAP for Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova in 2018 and 3 Russian backed conflicts have to be solved in a similar manner. UN Mandates, US style federalism, NATO Membership and EU perspective. It is an attractive offer for all to be EU member and secured by NATO based on human and property rights secured by Council of Europe and UNO. Clarity matters here and the time of appeasement are over. And ETR has already outlined that whenever the Russian leadership will not be pleased the concrete options for counter this are a few and not very practical given the power disparity and the international order. 4. Extend the Euro zone from Ukraine to Balkans based on the Montenegro Unilateral model first in Macedonia and Bosnia and all SEE to follow and promote adoption in Visegrad 3 missing out there. Sure some might be surprised but Kosovo and Montenegro use the Euro, in the Crimea and Donbas there is the Russian Rubles used. All countries who want should have the opportunities and Macedonia and Bosnia are pegged anyhow so they first and from the 9 we have then 4 with Euro and the other 5 represent less then 150 Billion GDP and so will not endanger Euro stability. Time for the Euro from Ukraine to Albania and Bosnia to Bulgaria and all countries between Adriatic, Baltic and Black Sea will use the most powerful visible tool of European commitment and future, the common currency already by 2020. And again as some in EC and ECB might reject this and even obstruct it. All countries should fulfill the Euro criteria like 60% and indeed only a few Euro Member State do currently so why should Croatia, Bulgaria and Romania wait when they want and some of them like Bulgaria actually do fulfill them and why to keep Croatia waiting given the debt reality of say Belgium and Italy? And in case of Croatia we talk about full Euro zone membership while for the 7 countries ETR is proposing unilateral adoption of Euro while not being member of Euro zone like Montenegro and Kosovo. This is not popular with some in Brussels but ETR appeals to all decision makers from Ukraine to Albania to consider this option very serious as it is your decision which currency to float in your country and the unilateral Euro introduction is the only most powerful tool you have to accelerate EU integration and make it irreversible. This matters less for NATO member Albania but it matters most for front line state Ukraine still in the limbo. Forcing the issue might be risky but from European taxpayers perspective to invest billions as the EU already does and ETR proposes much more to invest on the firm fundament of the Euro country is much saver and better investment for a public and much better for FDI which is as well much needed for Ukraine. And now after so many Euro introductions there are enough competence for Baltic’s to do that fast and secure. And waiting for Brussels might mean to wait a long time for a EU perspective and convention EU accession and Euro introduction we might talk half a century and war torn Montenegro and Kosovo did it and why should Ukraine wait half a century for a firm fundament of low inflation, low interest rates, attracting investments and building a better future and accelerating EU accession? 5. Stabilize Turkey and the UK in EFTA - Since Mid 2016 sadly the western and eastern flank of NATO and EU is more fragile and destabilized by Brexit and the July 16 coup and the reaction to it. What we now need to do is to stabilize Turkey in EFTA and as well the UK - if we cannot reverse Brexit please see below. Turkey is a key ally in NATO and is most integrated in EU economy by the customs union. Often that is not understood how deep that goes and it is very beneficial both sides and we have to keep Turkey now inside and support Turkey and keep it from spiraling out of control to sad damage to all sides and the benefit of Putin only. So as political integration is not feasible today and for many decades for both Turkey post coup behaviors and the EU elite and electorate reluctance for full political integration with full free movement and political co- decision let us ensure the EFTA integration of Turkey and we are united in everything but politics and free movement. That is what we can do and what we should do now. And it is as well the best harbor for the UK if Brexit now materializes which we should try – more than we do now to avoid at considerable cost as as well Brexit will be expensive and so we need a new offer. 6. Reverse Brexit – by making a new deal offer for the UK to stay. This deal is clear. Stop Brexit and come back and we offer a exception to Free Movement of Labor similar like in Schengen – it can be suspended when abused. If one MS of the EU sends more than a certain percentage of workers to the UK it can restrict the labor market access for this country based on reciprocity meaning both countries introduce temporary measure to restrict fully, partly or sector wise under DG Market and Social supervision and support their labor market system until the normality is back and a acceptable equilibrium is reestablished. We want labor mobility but not population exchanges –we want right for free movement but no abuses of great principles with effect than leading to Brexit. The 2004 decision to keep UK and IR open and restrict 7 years for new countries was most unfortunate and ETR was against it back then but so it was. ETR was in favor of full openness for all at once and so much less Polish would have gone to the more distant UK but as they had only this option so it was and for some time the UK elite was happy with the boom initiated with competent Polish labor but than this was useful for the anyhow Euro skeptic elite to abuse the Polish issue and win Brexit. Now we have to get this right again and as well Poland will see the benefit of the UK staying and yes many in Visgrade are against such a proposal but they are against a lot and not really solidarity too much these days and why we should make a offer to the UK like that? There will be no more massive Polish contingent going and if it is really questionable if in a Europe of such wage differentials unlimited labor mobility will not lead to more populism and so tool like with Schengen is a useful tool. As much as Austria did not like check at the Bavarian border it helped to calm down German fear of lack of diligence and care in Austria and bad, as it was it served the purpose and it hurt but not so much. And so if the Romanians move in too great number to the UK why not guide such streams a bit to avoid negative reactions? Europe is about many things and the Internal Market as well and when we compare the relative evils of a more structured Romanian labor market access to use that example and the loss of the UK and all it possible very negative consequence further down the road we have to show a bit more flexibility in terms of accommodating a major European state. And it will be on the basis of the EU law, on reciprocity, only temporary until the equilibrium is re-established and under EC supervision and recommendation based on facts and figures. And for some of the reforms of EU welfare there is anyhow growing concern on that and many of the Feb 2016 proposals could be developed jointly and with the same verve and energy that now some are putting in the Brexit negotiations there can be a accommodation found for sure. As well on trade to ensure all UK nominated countries for Commonwealth get a DCFTA fast tracked and indeed the EU has covered most already and for the rest really let us get going. Freer trade is anyhow what we should be all about and let us not drags our feet on that. And the UK can opt out of CSFP measures as well. If there needs to be more concession pleases us discuss. Brexit has to be avoid and as well if there are considerable costs with it. Unity matters and yes it is no disaster if it happens but why not try to avoid it and the costs for taxpayers, consumer and security and stability on both sides of the continenet. 7. Develop a Competence and Conflict Resolution Center for Federal and Regional Dialogue on EU Level. Federalism is not easy and we have considerable issue in Spain, Italy, Belgium, Greece, Slovakia and the EU can not simple ignore this – even when the MS want that and some in the MS of the EU who require reforms in central- regional cooperation and dialogue like Spain, Italy, Belgium, Greece, Romania, possible others they need some competent conflict and dialogue mechanism and not sort it out in streets and illegal referendums Federalism is not just a Federal Europe but very much a Government close to people and with strong regions based in Federal Member States of a federal Europe. We have 28 MS and 28 different models to learn and study and develop and devolve and as well we have the USA the most successful federation to learn and study and anyhow we have Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia all this issues of federal reform waiting for them and for sure the Russian Federation as well for building such a European Competence and Conflict resolution Dialogue Center to discuss, study and be a sparring partner for the MS and the Regions nut a judge – that not as we will not see any new member state from our existing set up as the cost of separation will always be higher than the gains in welfare as inside the EU there re full human, political and property and minority rights already. But on the issue of a Federalism in MS and in Future MS and in the EU there is still a lot to improve and dogging the issue for decades like and Spain and escalating it like in Catalonia is not supporting the EU project very much in term of image and reputation and reality and such a dialogue center might be a useful contribution and for sure it is for the future debate east of the EU which will come and we have to be ready. 8. The final issue is the reform of the Southern and Eastern Partnership indeed not the reform and the transformation and enlargement. ETR has outlined this a lot of Pax Europea 1 in March 2017 please see that for a longer discussion and ETR will work on this further in coming weeks but in concrete terms ETR is proposing to transform Southern Partnership in the Islamic Economic Community build on the EU model and like a southern twin of the EU based and anchored in Turkey and open for enlargement and bringing a similar process to the Islamic World like the EU has achieved in Europe from the 1950 onwards. It might take time but let us start and support with the same principle and incentives and let us back it and develop it. And for the eastern Partnership of EU as clear from the text above the ones who want to join the EU should join while the EaP should continue and extend to include Central Asian 5 and Afghanistan and possible Mongolia and parallel as well the NATO MS should develop a new regional security transition based in Kabul called CATO, Central Asian Treaty organization and similar like NATO be open for similar value members from Central Asia all east of Iran and south of the current Russian Federation. ETR will further develop these ideas below. Basically this will counter the Russian backed CSTO and will turn Afghanistan and Central Asia on a new level of partnership in equality, security and prosperity. Tbcontinued.

Time for CATO for Central Asia - Central Asia Treaty Organization

Time to repeat to success model of NATO in Central Asia and get it right this time. The situation in Central Asia –especially in Afghanistan – the pivotal country there- is not unlike the first part of the 20th century in Europe between 1917 and 1945 where the USA had to intervene twice against Germany and was massively investing in Germany after the first time just to have to come back and bomb from 1943 many of the asset it had helped to build a in the roaring 1920ies. And the USA was eager to leave Europe in 1945 as fast as possible and certainly would have left Europe to itself if not Comrade Stalin open the Cold War and made it clear there will be no vacuum in Germany. It was either a US backed Western Germany in NATO and a massive commitment to Western Europe on permanent basis or the Soviet Union until the Atlantic. And so NATO was born and Germany – the double aggressor become the pillar of the West and NATO that it is today. And still today US troops are based in Germany as part of the NATO alliance based on equality of member states but still and as well in the future dominated by far by the largest global military power in spending, capacity to project force and willingness to use it – mostly for good, and always for good within the NATO framework. So for source of trouble to rock of security – what a transformation Germany and the US have achieved and what a success for all of Europe, the West and all whom trade, invest of seek refuge in the safety and prosperity of Europe today. Why can we not repeat this transformation in Afghanistan and turn that nation into a partner and pillar of security – not as mission we contribute with troop every decade again but as a long-term partner for stability for Central Asia. Like NATO post WW2 the Soviet – now Russian threat is clear and is crystallizing the attention and we need now the right format for turning Afghanistan it not such a long term rock of NATO backed security system for Central Asia. And not come and go and go and come this is really not good enough what we have done up to now. As we have seen the danger of Afghanistan being taken over by ideological forces ready to export violence is similar in intent if not capacity to Germany rule back then by the Nazis or potentially by the Communist. When it happened it was too late and it took great capital and force to bring Germany back into normality again. And same with Afghanistan to allow the Islamic extremists to take power and use all the great resources of land and people for the purposes can hardly be accepted and so we are back again. The better approach is to stay and build CATO together with Afghanistan and offer membership to all countries in Asia committed to the same principles and values like NATO including guarantee of borders and mutual assistance. And that Afghanistan needs this guarantee of security for long term success can be seen by its 2013 decision to join CSTO the Russian back copy of NATO not very successful but successful enough to attract Serbia and Afghanistan as observer members. And this should be a wake up call that we are not doing the right thing for Central Asia. As well we are not clear enough on structures. All on west of Caspian are potential members of NATO and all East of Caspian are part of CATO if they commit to peace based on principle and values and mutual commitment to all members. The Russian Federation of 28 MS of the future might be in both and so might be Japan or South Korea but obviously their choice and possible their interest closer to the region in CATO. And of course all Ex SU Central Asia is very welcome and the basic idea is to compete and replace CSTO by a NATO backed security guarantee for Central Asia and if Russian does feel already paranoid with NATO enlargement than let us complete it with CATO to Russian south and as with NATO CATO will be a defensive alliance based on non aggression but on the clear and significant capability to defend territory and people of aggression. Russia will not go to war for CATO formation not anymore than it is already and contrary to some believe in appeasement it obvious does not work and is taken for weakness and availability as a victim. And as with NATO it is the choice for the nations, their elite and people where they want to secure their future within the NATO backed CATO or within the CSTO.

The 4th transformation leverage of Europe In the 2nd edition of Pax Europeana we are discussing now the 4 main option for the EU and NATO to cooperate to counter the Russian challenge since 2014 and avoiding a major confrontation but ensuring that the Russian Imperial overstretching point will be reached faster and the West is prepared with helping the transformation of the current aggressive Russian Federation into a EU style peaceful Russian Federation of 28 Member States. We have already discussed that we should buy less energy and so reducing financing the aggressive power breaking the international order on several fronts and we have discussed accelerating EU and NATO enlargement and the need to believe in our values and secure more people inside EU and NATO. In the Chapter above we discussed the strategic partnership to build with Central Asia inside EaP and the need to develop CATO as partner of NATO in Central Asia. Now in the last chapter we will discuss to transform the European Southern Neighborhood into a own supranational institution as a twin of the EU and developing in the Islamic Economic Community based on the success model of the way at its birth – with all the right instruments from the start, a parliament assembly, court of justice and an executive and the core of supra-nationality unification project and the backing of the west and firmly based in Istanbul and developing Turkey as the Twin Pillar Anchor both in NATO and EFTA and as the host of the IEC which will gradually - based on criteria similar to the southern Partnership and with the same privileges in terms of EU market access - enlarge to all countries aspiring to join with the focus all predominately Islamic identity countries in Northern Africa, Middle East and Asia and in close partnership with EU from start expressed from the start in keeping EU Internal Market access and standards. There are currently 10 members in ENP Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Pale stine*, Syria and Tunisia. https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/neighbourhood/southern-neighbourhood_en

Easy to spot, the EU has an Eastern Partnership but a Southern Neighborhood so the South and the Islamic World is less of a priority currently and it is time to change that and develop a strategic offer for cooperation based on market access and the EU own success history with regional integration. It is as well necessary to stabilize the region, first of all Turkey our key ally in NATO and partner in the EU customs Union but not inside the EU -possible never- and currently as well less interested to do what it takes to convince the EU.

So the IEC is rightly based there in the former imperial center of the Ottoman Empire, as that might be best acceptable for many ethnicities and regional and religious directions in the diverse area from the Atlantic to Pakistan and from the Central Asia steps to the East Africa.

As Turkey is in NATO and as ETR proposes in future in EFTA there can be parallel memberships in regional organizations like the African Union and others but the basic idea is to first turn the Southern Neighborhood into a full partnership and then repeat the success of the EU from the 1956 onwards but based on the current internal market legislation and provide market access for goods and so allow development in the whole region based on standards and regulation and access. And support development. The IEC will be as well a political organization not only an aspiring free trade area coordinated with the EU but and this matters it will have a political systems with an executive and a parliament assembly and as well a seat in the UNO security council of the UNO 2.0 which ETR is proposing with 10 permanent members – 5 of them regional political organizations EU, OAS, AU, ASEAN+ and IEC.

It will be the voice of the Islam world in the World Organization. Some might dismiss this as visionary, or dangerous or illusion but the way to achieve it is to focus it on Turkey, a powerful nation, NATO member and developed and looking for its place on the big table and a role in the world and has and can and will serve as bridge and host not leading the IEC but facilitating the development. And key to it is the EU Southern Neighborhood + turned into a full partnership and Trade access to the internal market with the objective to include all IEC members into the EU internal market with full freedom of goods and a measure freedom for services and capital and in selective, limited way as well for labor and a separate political process of ever closer unification gradually but with the full set of necessary institutions and a small group to start and an enlargement process to be defined but the key pillar should be the rule of law, a participatory political system and non aggression towards neighbors and region and the acceptance of the fellow members. There can be as well as observer membership level first.

Obviously countries with a destructive agenda in the region and beyond or dysfunctional states can not become members in that state and therefore a membership application and screen process like in the EU is the best formula allow for gradually increasing of membership and a similar drive for improvement as the EU has in its membership area.

We should have started such a project already at the start of the Arab spring but even when the West was active in preaching freedom to the mainly Socialist Arab states after the Iraq intervention and still was surprised by the Iran and Arab democracy movement listening we had nothing ready in terms of a strategic framework to base such transformation in and avoid the shocks that revolutions can bring in countries without middle class and a democratic past and Islam as the main identity dominator after the end of Socialism and Nationalism or simple Military or personal dictatorship. That is why we need IEC. ETR has outlined the IEC concept in more details already in March 2017 online at http://flattax- europe.eu/yliko/pdf/Newsletters/PAX_EUROPEANA_10_March_201 7.pdf but again we need to provide a framework we know works and we as the West have to assist such a development and actively ensure it works. It will help as well to stabilize the most fragile states in the region, give a credible economic development perspective and turn into a long terms close partnership between the EU, NATO and the IEC, and CATO and China and Japan not against Russian but against Russian and similar aggression in the region and will transform the reality and image of the West in the Islamic world and help the elite and electorate of the Islamic world to reduce the ideology and public support base of radical Islamic terrorism- similar like fascist and communists ideology have lost their claim and base on Western society with economic progress and a open and just political system as well perceived as such and the same process, debate and yes battle for the heart, minds and soul of the Islam world we have to start, lead and win now and given what we achieved within Europe it will take time but will be similar successful if we use similar structures and processes and base it on the same – universal values and concepts of freedom, human and property rights, political partition, market economy, federal responsive and responsible good governance and regional trade integration leading to a mutual beneficial regional political system perceived as fair and successful and bringing unprecedented welfare to the region south of Europe, Northern Africa to Central Asia which once was the center of the world for a long time and has deserved better than the current status of misery and decline. And in Europe we have been once – not to long ago in much the same situation like Syria now and we have found the way forwards and yes the West- the US post War has developed the framework EU and NATO for all Europeans and thanks a lot it worked very well. Now it is time for the Islamic World to start a similar journey to prosperity. It is time for the IEC.

These 4 different transformation leverage will lead to a stronger Europe, a fair and more prosperous world – should be done in any case but will is done serious and committed develop a consistent and positive trajectory of progress and competition in the East and South of Russia which is the European option to act short of war and will not lead to war but will lead to the end of Imperial Russia 2.0 due to the lack of means of competing and the success and the security of the east and south of Russia being such a clear development alternative that by time and faster than expected the Russian Federation will transform itself into a Federation of 28 Member State and will it be one more or less we as EU should be ready and we will. And the EU will be at the way for 40 anyhow by than. This can be done with present means and methods. It will lead to new levels of prosperity based on security and freedom and a European order, backed by the US in all Eurasia and is by far less risky than the current limbo and aggression mode ETR refers as the Cold War 2.0. This is the way to win the Cold War 2.0 - the Pax Europeana.

In Part 6 ETR will now discuss what European Federalism means for in terms of institutional development and distribution of institutions in a Federal Russia in terms of the Parliament in Petersburg, Role of the President, Seat of President and PM in Moskow and how e.g. the center for the courts and justice can be based in Volgograd and the Central Bank in Ufa and the Ministries and other Central State organs in several of the MS Capitals like in Germany or the EU. Further in part 7 ETR will discuss a similar process of a federal system and reforms and a MS EU cooperation with Ukraine whose success is decisive for the whole of the Pax Europeana. And need to be accelerated please see the SEE Recommendations below in details which is the final part of ETR Pax European the Part 8. The 2 missing part are currently in development.

Please all ETR to refer to Pax Euroepan 1 online for the discussion on UNO, EU and IEC in more details http://flattax-europe.eu/yliko/pdf/Newsletters/PAX_EUROPEANA_10_March_2017.pdf

Please as well for a more details presentation on Ukraine EU accession and what needs to be done online at http://flattax-europe.eu/yliko/pdf/Newsletters/TAX_Reformer_No_8.pdf

For the concrete steps for 2018 to 2020 for Ukraine please the the next and final chapter for 2017 SEE Ukraine Part 8 of Pax Europeana 2017

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Please see the Ukraine in EU via SEE in Partnership with European Balkans Ukraine, accelerate reforms as part 8 of Pax Europeana 2017. European Ukraine- Accelerate Reforms In Partnership with European Balkans Together to EU- together in EU European Ukraine – European Balkans – United in SEE The faster way – and the safer – and the only way for Ukraine to EU – together with the only working pre accession dialogue SEE Finding friends and going new ways will lead to faster EU Integration for Ukraine – Reinvented as South Eastern European country and fully integrated in the EU Candidate SEE Mechanism And how? By Ukraine joining the existing and well working 18 SEE Regional Reform Mechanism RCC, CEFTA, RAI, REC, SEEHN, SWGRRD, CPESSEC, RYCO, SELEC, RACVIAC, INSPIREWB, ERISEE, RESPA, DPPI, SEECEL, CEF, Berlin for Balkans Process for EU Infrastructure Interconnectivity Dialogue & US Adriatic Charter A5 for NATO In 2018 – all are ready and working and welcome Ukraine Can Ukraine contribute to regional reforms in SEE? Yes. Ukraine has much to offer and Ukraine can add value and host existing or initiate new SEE regional reform mechanism in areas where Ukraine is strong and that matter for Ukraine and the whole SEE mechanism can be strengthened and complemented to speed up EU accession with concrete proposals for Ukraine to offer to SEE friends and partners and host or co-host them in Ukraine best in regional centers to promote them in EU and SEE and integrated Ukraine in SEE and EU. And why not joining SEE? Because Serbia send fighters to the Russian rebels in Donbas or because Ukraine was not courageous enough to explain the difference between justified new states like Montenegro and the Republic of Kosovo and illegal annexation of Crimea and Russian back aggression in Donbas? Yes, there are issues but only an active Ukraine which does not leave the Balkans to Russia but which is active and contributes to the debate will be successfully in Europe and the reality of EU accession progress of all 6 WB and the reality of SEE success in general is the main reason for Ukraine to join the only existing EU pre –accession mechanism there is right now.

There is a lot to learn from the Balkans Based on the Balkan reform experience we have outlined the 10 Priorities proposed for European Ukraine, meaning how Ukraine can accelerate its EU accession and make its westwards integration irreversible - despite the resistance in Ukraine, by Russia and sadly by some in EU. Some reform proposals like cutting tax rate to 10% or introducing the Euro like in Montenegro and Kosovo might seem farfetched but please let us study the role models of SEE and what Ukraine can learn because of the astonishing prosperity differential of Ukraine today with the Balkans despite Ukraine having all required for success, educated and skill people, fertile land and plenty of it and significant capital but still even Kosovo is richer than Ukraine in GDP per capita and it is time for a open debate why? Understand the more aggressive and far reaching reform effort of SEE simple because they had to find new and faster ways to prosperity will support reforms in Ukraine and as discussed it is anyhow the only open way to Europe right now. Regional sector reform works The way forwards is adopting successful reforms from the last decade in the more advanced EU accession countries of SEE and to join in concrete terms the 18 region sector reform organization starting from CEFTA to RCC and the Adriatic Charter and all 18 please see the specific articles for each international organization or meeting format attached. Why? This will foster integration and make membership of Ukraine in everything but the name and gradually frame Ukraine as a EU accession country and so make a Thessaloniki Guarantee more feasible. Ukraine will be smoothing into the EU accession group by the backdoor of the Balkans. There is no highway for Ukraine to EU Good, Ukraine has deserved a highway and a red carpet because it is special and matters! True, but this is not the reality as perceived in the EU and many do not trust your real commitment and dedication to Western integration still. Some might be close to Russian interest firmly opposed to loosing Ukraine to the West but most simple shy away of the task and responsibility and costs of Ukraine EU integration or are busy with other issues more close to their agendas. And some are simple afraid of Russia and most do not know Ukraine at all and certainly not European Ukraine post Maidan. This has to change. And the SEE strategy is the best if not only one to achieve this fast and effective. There is only one EU enlargement process Europe has built a regional reform infrastructure for SEE after the last war in 1999. Now 18 years ago and from 2000 onwards amazing progress has happened, sadly not recognized in Ukraine focused on its own issues. But this reform infrastructure is the best way to the EU and NATO for Ukraine. Why? There is only one enlargement process for the EU and building a pre-accession alliance and learning and supporting each other is the best way for the latecomers like Ukraine sadly is. And for the less clear cases like Ukraine which need more convincing and who were buried too long in the SU and the shadow of Moskow for too long and only gradually moving into attention of the European public and elites and electorates this is the best way. And elites and electorates will have to make this decision and they are very busy with their own issues as well. Europe is far from the existential crisis RT likes to promote, Europe indeed is amazingly successful in all terms given where we started after the world war. Not as successful like the initiator and main supporter and protector of the EU integration process, the USA but close and catching up and again, compared to where we have been after destroying ourselves in 2 world wars it is a amazing success story. And the EU is strong and is there for very long term And right RT is celebrating Brexit, Catalonia and Greek crisis, but Greece is still in Euro and will stay forever, the Euro as well is successfully integrating and extending and that the UK leaves is not at least a proof that we are the Union of Freedom and the UK will stay a rich and developed country and a NATO ally anyhow. And Catalonia seems a challenge but Spain and the EU will find the Federal Mechanism to accommodate such issues and compared to the Russian Federation who bases unity on brute force and bombs we will find a lawful and legal settlement. Such issue of regional nationalism is painful for Spain but we have all the mechanism for solve them peacefully in a Federal Europe. And this we are building and quite effectively so. And crisis’s are part of the process to reform and develop our Union. A Union of freedom and freedoms and in a painful and peaceful compromise moving ever closer together that is what is happening. But the perception of crisis is there and that matters and sadly for ETR but the result is building a union and of the perceived crisis is to strengthen the border and define the we against them more clear and especially strengthen the borders of the EU especially stronger protection in the Med Sea and to Turkey and towards the East, with the aggressive Russian Federation. On which side of the EU Boarder will Ukraine be? What does that mean for Ukraine? Clearly this means your decide where the eastern border of the EU East will be. At the present EU border along the Baltic to the Black Sea or will it include Ukraine and the border will be Belarus and Russia and yes sadly the Demarcation line to Donbas and annexation line with occupied Crimea? This is the choice. And the border debate will come and despite visa free travel it will make the economic integration of Ukraine and the political integration much more complicated. Only the SEE countries will have a way in and nobody else and especially after the German and Austrian elections and their results this trend will accelerate. Join SEE now So being part of that group matters, a lot. Despite sophistications on geography SEE is the only active pre-enlargement mechanism we have and it works and matured many countries to EU member states and if that is what Ukraine wants it is time to follow up systematically and join all such bodies and invest and cooperate and convince and show the effort, commitment and devotion to EU integration for which so many died in 2014 and since then in the war Russia started to make exactly this EU integration of Ukraine impossible. And to counter this strategy we have to be smart together and firmly anchor Ukraine as part of SEE firmly on the way to EU and NATO and nowhere else and certainly not somewhere in-between –neutral LalaLand does not exist. Together in SEE Ukraine and the Balkans on the way to a united Europe and then united in Europe as member states of the European Union of 37 member states. Please in this section find the following parts 1. What Ukraine can add to SEE in 15 possible projects 2. The 18 SEE regional organization Ukraine can join now 3. The main economic reforms Ukraine should study from the SEE success stories in terms of Market Opening for Land, Labor, Capital and European Kataster Reform, Tax Reform 10% and unilateral Euro Introduction like in Kosovo and Montenegro

Part 1. What can Ukraine add to SEE So being part of SEE matters, a lot. We have seen that. Despite sophistications on geography SEE is the only active pre-enlargement mechanism we have and it works and matured many countries to EU member states and if that is what Ukraine wants it is time to follow up systematically and join all such bodies and invest and cooperate and convince and show the effort, commitment and devotion to EU integration for which so many died in 2014 and since then in the war Russia started to make exactly this EU integration impossible. And to counter this strategy we have to be smart together and firmly anchor Ukraine as part of SEE firmly on the way to EU and NATO and nowhere else and certainly not somewhere in-between. ETR has developed now these 10 priorities as distributed in European Ukraine In Partnership with European Balkans discussion and the 18 sector reform accession articles. This is the 3rd trajectory of ETR after European SME Policy, Austrian Ukrainian Cooperation Platform and now how Balkans Ukrainian SEE Strategy to accelerate Ukraine reform and future in EU. Now please find the details of what Ukraine can offer to the SEE process to complement the SEE process in some key aspects and show it usefulness and support Ukraine and SEE and together move to EU and NATO united. 15 Key Contribution of Ukraine for turning Ukraine into essential pillar of SEE Regional Cooperation structures and fully engaging Ukraine into the process and ensuring it serves the strategic objective of EU and NATO membership by fully aligning with the present and future EU and NATO members of SEE.

1. RCC- Black Sea Pillar in Odessa – The RCC Black Sea Regional European Training Center in Odessa Jointly with the RCC Ukraine offers to develop such a center for and with www.rcc.int to host RCC events focused on the Black Sea Region. It will be a second HQ of RCC fully integrated in the RCC structures and expand the capacities of RCC together with the enlarged regional scope of RCC as well fostering the inclusion of Georgia. It will be based in Odessa where the Balkans meets the Black Sea. Next to the main HQ of RCC in Sarajevo the Black Sea HQ of RCC will gradually grow and support the integration of the Balkan and Black Sea regions with each other and within the EU. 2. SEE European Infrastructure Interconnectivity Training Center in Lviv will be following the EU Infrastructure Interconnectivity Dialogue mechanism of the Berlin for Balkans Dialogue and, as outlined, transforming to include Ukraine and the Black Sea region and turning the top-level Berlin for the Balkans into the Berlin for the Balkans and the Black Sea Dialogue for Pre EU Accession. The infrastructure part in planning and coordination is now mainly finished and the capacities are now there for including Ukraine. Ukraine could offer to host such a dialogue in Lviv and take the initiative and offer as well to host the SEETO Secretariat http://www.seetoint.org/ in Lviv in the future. Lviv might be a bit north for some skeptics but all who know it are aware it was designed by the same architect like Trieste and it is as much SEE like Trieste or Bucharest and it is perfect hub for a regional transport planning organization. SEETO has great capacities and history but now with the EU having taken a bigger role with the Infrastructure interconnectivity agenda in SEE it could need a boost and offering to relocate it and host it in Lviv is a smart move to show that Ukraine is serious in SEE and for good. And infrastructure is a strong side of Ukraine and connecting all aspects from digital, airspace to road safety and railways and motorways and waterways to European standards is anyhow a monumental task and with the right regional platform it might be very success framework to Ukraine and SEE and EU. During the reform of SEETO it should be as well offered to Romania and Bulgaria and Moldova and Greece as infrastructure has to be planed in regional context if Hungary, Slovakia and Poland want to join they should be very welcome and it would be very useful to integrated the whole region and ensure a infrastructure led growth package finds the backing of the EFSI funding opportunities. To bring the Ukrainian infrastructure financing needs in a package with the SEE infrastructure requirements and frame them as a necessity for SEE economic stimulus package is the only way to get ESFI funding for the major requirement of SEE and especially Ukraine in this sector and so to speed up infrastructure led growth in SEE including Ukraine. 3. Towards a EU Danube-Dnipro Strategy Secretariat in Dnipro Such a infrastructure led growth is key for regional development and Ukraine should offer fully join the EU DSR –the EU Danube Region Strategy https://www.danube-region.eu/ and promote to extend and transform it into the EU Danube Dnipro Strategy EU DDSR and offer to build a SEE Center for Regional Development under the EUDDSR in coordination with the http://seerural.org/ in the major Ukrainian city Dnipro located at the Dnipro and a major regional economic enter of Ukraine. Extending the EUDSR to include the Dnipro will lead to the creation a European Water Way Ring with the RMD and the Dnipro allowing to connect Baltic, North and Black Sea and lift the whole potential of Ukraine in the Internal Market of the EU and prepare the roll out regional development policy EU style during the coming years in Ukraine. No better than Dnipro for that major task. 4. SEE Judicial Reform and Training Center Judicial reform meaning to bring judges, prosecutors and Ministry of Justice experts together and train them is different to police or rule of law or public administration efforts which exist already in SEE and Ukraine should join. But Ukraine should offer to host a new organization and training center just for the judicial sector. Such a training center should really focus on judges, prosecutors and ministry of Justice and possible law markers and academic on this crucial sector for SEE. No better place for such an academy then Cernowitz with its great legal university. The idea is to give http://www.seepag.info a kind of RESPA style training academy and include judges and justice officials and focus on that in all major areas, criminal, constitutional and administrative and civil law. 5. SEE Human and Property Rights Center in Kherson jointly with Coe Following the annexation of Crimea, Russia, as member of the Council of Europe committed a lot of acts against human and property rights in Crimea and obviously as well in Donbas. As well the whole situation of human and property rights in Russia is very questionable. And to support the human Rights and property rights in the occupied territories and network the whole region and inform the SEE region better on the Russian led abuses in Crimea and Donbas but as well to discuss the human rights situation of in SEE and further east …Ukraine could initiate in partnership with the CoE and the donor community a new SEE Regional Organization focused in Human and Property rights based in Kherson – the northern twin of Crimea and where Crimea is close and a lot of Crimean Tatars now live. This SEE Center for Human and Property rights should bring together Ministry of Justice, Interior and Refugees and IDP and Minorities from all over SEE countries from Adriatic to Black Sea. There are many minorities issues in SEE and some are very well integrated and some are still open to be solved and in EU we have a lot of success stories like South Tyrol and other how to organize and facilitate rights and participation and success of minorities in Europe and how to protect and defense human and property rights. Such a center would be a great tool to help the struggle for freedom of Crimea and Donbas but as well to help the people there as with impact and as well to train future generation of human right activities and learn from SEE experience and contribute to improve the situation of human and property rights in SEE. There should be several pillars like human rights, one property right and minority rights, reform of the political system, public information, training and capacity building. It should be a center like the European Youth Center in Strasbourg but based in Kherson where Crimea and Donbas are close. It should be in partnership with OSCE and CoE but owned by the SEE Region and without the influence of the RF in CoE and OSCE. 6. E-SEE Governance Center in Kharkov Some of the SEE Centers have lost a bit of steam due to lack of a driver or competition or simple lack of focus but have great potential with a country putting efforts in and so putting the topic and the city and country who cares on the SEE reform agenda and so a bit closer to Europe. One of them is http://www.eseeinitiative.org/ the Digital Transformation Agenda called e-SEE it is there but despite great progress in all area in this sector in SEE there is not such a great website, and progress and so this is an opportunity for a newcomer to shine, be useful and contribute and if the new comer is one of the technology leaders of the world and has a city like Kharkov a kind of Eastern Silicon valley – not in polit-matkerting terms but in real results and reality then this can be a real opportunity to support and coordinate the digital transformation agenda for SEE from Kharkov. 7. SEE Innovation Center in Zaporizza and Split In 2015 the SEE countries has decided to roll out the Western Balkans research and innovation center based in Split. That is excellent idea but it has not moved a lot and has no website still today. Innovation and Research is key for growth but there is a lack of industrial and scientific capacity in the SEE countries and combination with Ukraine might be a boost for innovation and research for all SEE and give the Center a new launch based in Split and in Zaporizza. Split is amazing town, industrial and touristic and so is Zaporizza but the reality of Zaporizza industrial capacity is obviously much higher as a city of 800.000 and some of the largest steel, automotive and aviation industry center in Europe. http://www.rcc.int/press/267/split-to-become-headquarters-of- the-western-balkans-research-and-innovation-centre Why not to cooperate with Croatia who is the biggest supporter of Ukraine in the Balkans, SEE and EU after Germany and unite a lot can be achieved with EU funds in Research and Technology and the industrial capacities of Ukraine? The Center is called WISE, maybe a wise decision to twin and support it? 8. SEE Investment, Competitiveness and SME Manufacturing Council in OECD Preparation Center for SEE based in Zhytomyr The RCC has worked considerable on the issue of Investment, Competitiveness and SME and please see http://www.seeic.rcc.int/ and the SEE 2020 Growth Action Plan. Really excellent progress and concepts. And now CEFTA and RCC are heading to develop the Regional Economic Area decided on the Trieste Summit July 2017. But still of all RCC members only Greece is member of OECD. Imagine a SEE fully integrated in OECD as an objective for a new regional organization focused on the OECD SME Index, SEE Competitiveness and a kind of regional investment hub for incoming FDI and a best practice to bring SEE upwards on all global rankings? Why not based that in Zhitomir, not a very famous but a major SME manufacturing center close to Kyiv and very much a commercial hub on the European highway Kyiv Brussels. SEE can only develop in the next decade above its current growth trajectory with the resources of European Ukraine and Ukraine can only move forwards to EU in next decade with full back of SEE and integrated in SEE and to foster the economic aspects of that alliance with such a regional economic policy organization focused very much on OECD membership of the whole SEE region and all it takes to achieve this. Russia was on the way for membership until the Crimea aggression but is now suspended and the priority should be SEE accession to OECD. 9. SEE Center for Protection and Fostering for Minority Languages in SEE based in Ushgorod Ukraine and all SEE has a great treasure in its cultural and linguistic diversity and has to keep and honor this and all SEE is part of CoE Charter on Minority language protection and a regional organization for SEE would be well place in Ushgorod jointly with a monitoring and training center. Language matters and keeping it well thought and protected is a great heritage for SEE. 10. SEE Cyber Security Center in Mariupol An SEE regional organization based in that hero city Mariupol, the symbol of Ukrainian victory against Russian aggression and based so close to the demarcation line at the black sea and focused on the key strength of Ukraine and a key new battle field Cyber Security would be excellent to shore up capacities of SEE and give Mariupol a regional positive and constructive exposure it has deserved after what it has been gone through. Ukraine know possible more than all current SEE countries about Cyber Security being at war with Cyber attacks from Russia and so this is a key sector to share and develop together and defend Europe together. 11. SEE Center for Urban Revitalization in Ternopol SEE has seen a dramatic urban revival in last decade. This is one of the focus area of EU with municipal infrastructure spending and one of the best example is the transformation of old historic center like Berat, Skoder, and Korca in Albania by the AADF, the USA backed Albanian American Development Fund and his Business Improvement District program as well called Einkaufstarssenentwicklungsgemeinschaft in Austria and many EU countries possible have similar projects or agenda for urban renewal and never forget that socialist was a all encompassing concept as well having left its evil marks on the urban development heritage of Ukraine and SEE and so to focus on European urban revitalization in all SEE and set up a special regional international organization for that for mayors and expert urban planner to exchange idea and develop the urban reality European way 2017 in new direction and base that in Ternopol one of the city of western Ukraine which has done a lot to justify to base such a body in this great but widely unknown city. Maybe useful to see what is possible http://www.aadf.org/project/business-improvement-districts/ but there is amazing progress all over SEES under EU and US mechanism and it matters for live quality in SEE. But you can do it like in Skopje of like in Shkoder and a international organsition to ensure best practices and standards are developed would help to avoid misallocation of resources and priorities. This center should as well bring together municipal infrastructure experts and serve to all as the springboard for urban renewal European style for all SEE countries. 12. SEE Sustainable Tourism Development Center in Ivano Frankivsik Tourism is already one of the key drivers of prosperity in SEE and to develop this potential for employment, regional prosperity, sustainable development of cities and periphery and combine natural protected landscape and the rural development into a sustainable touristic industry a all can be learnt from what is going on along the Adriatic, Aegean and Black Sea and the Balkan and Carpathian mountains and the many cultural heritage sites of SEE. To develop an international organization to focus on SEE tourism is certainly worth the effort and will contribute to transform the regions faster and more effective. Base it in Ivano FRankisk and turning that great r great city close to Bukovel into a regional hub for tourism education, training, management for SEE. 13. SEE Center for Cultural Heritage Protection with UNESCO in Chernigov and Prizren SEE is full of amazing cultural heritage mostly from the common Byzantine - Eastern Roman Empire governing most of SEE for half a millennium or more but as well from Austrian, Turkish and Russian Imperial past and all requires major investments, care and competent management. Croatia with EU support has turned most of its amazing treasures now into touristic and cultural assets of global significance and what a success for all of SEE to follow, A regional international organsition as well bringing the whole region to UNESCO staradnas and common practices and understanding of history, meaning and significance of cultural heritage would be excellent and which city in Ukraine would be better to host it than Chernigov possible in combination with Prizren and to bring the full range of cultural and religious heritage expressed in stone and brick to the forefront for shaping a common European SEE understanding of history and common future in EU. Yes and like with Croatia Kosovo is a staunchly pro US and pro EU and Pro Western country which will be with Ukraine for sure and your greatest supporter in SEE. 14. SEE Public Safety Academy in Poltava and Vushtrri Public Safety is a major issue in all of SEE and public safety from police, fire brigade emergency responders and the policy and legal and technical infrastructure behind it are key to a European level of safety and a decent living standards and to use such powers effective and appropriate and proportionate it a major challenge. The USA has therefore set up a training academy in Kosovo after the Kosovo war in the old YU Police training facility in Vushtrri in Kosovo and it could be easily turned into a regional training center for police and emergency responders for SEE with Ukraine backing and Ukraine could complement it with a second pillar in Poltava– http://www.aksp-ks.net/?page=2,1 The same backing like for the KAPS in Kosovo would be possible for Poltava and jointly both center to build on the SEE compatible standards already in place in Vushtrri. Obviously nobody in Poltava has heard about Vushtrri and be sure nobody in Vushtrri has about Poltava but the people having backed and established KAPS certainly know and care. This would be for public safety for police and emergency responders, building up a modern fire fighting system with a professional and voluntary wing and training all personal with direct executive power how to use such powers. From justice and prison guards, fire, and basically everybody in uniform but the judiciary see above and the military for they need different training facilities and please find the last two new international organization leading to prepare for NATO in everything but the name. 14 SEE Naval Training Center in Mykolaev The Adriatic has a great navel tradition but is now with NATO and saves and the naval issues facing the EU are in East Med and Black Sea mainly. And as well there is not a single big navy site left in Adriatic most is now marinas. Look and they are expensive and beyond SEE capacity there is only one major SEE country with such needs and capacities and eager to join NATO- Ukraine. And Ukraine has great facilities. Why not develop a NATO Navel center for SEE in everything but the name? And base it in Mykolaev and build a SEE center for Navel training for all regions and turn it something like a small http://mc.nato.int/ 15 SEE Defense Academies in Vinnitsa – SEE Prep Center for NATO in Logistics, Procurement, Ammunition, Aviation, A Eastern Ramstein or Avianao, Like NATO in Rome, major land force training center http://www.natoschool.nato.int/ or http://www.jftc.nato.int/ and prepare in everything but the name for such major facility for NATO accession for all SEE and offer these basis as joint training facilities. Outlook – Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro and possible as well Serbia are more advanced and the two potential candidate countries of SEE Bosnia and Kosovo and the 3 Black Sea countries all with Russian inflicted structural issues Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia will carry on in SEE as main beneficiaries of SEE focused donor support as well once Montenegro, Albania and Macedonia and s=possible Serbia will be in EU and NATO. So a new focus more to the Black Sea with Ukraine as central pillar as largest, most capable and country requiring most attention and investment and in many way a pivotal country makes a lot of senses. It might be that the 3 EAP countries not committed to a EU future might gradually consider joining and Azerbaijan and Belarus and Armenia should be very welcome. For the sector reform transition they should anyhow be open for them upon request and commitment to their objectives. As well as ETR will outline all the SEE reform and regional cooperation platforms are very essential pillar for a preparing the West and the world for an eventual break up of the Russian Federation similar like the SU and YU and- while nobody fancies or desires such a outcomes and the multiple major risks and consequences of it the West has to prepared and more on that in Pax European 2 to be published now. Now in closing for the coming year it is essential to ensure Ukraine membership and transformation in a vital pillar of the SEE regional cooperation in all the 19 platforms Ukraine is not member and the 14 new or reformed platforms Ukraine should take a leadership role for SEE to move united all SEE to Europe and a be successful inside the European Union of 37 member states.

Part 2- the 18 Regional International Organization Ukraine should join

1. RCC Ukraine, Join the Regional Cooperation Council www.rcc.int

In 1999 the Balkan was at war, again. The 4th war in a decade –Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and then the Kosovo war, with NATO liberating Kosovo by enforcing powerfully Western Standards of Human Rights after Serbian nationalism crossed all lines. And the West after a decade of post Cold War peace dividend felt strong enough to counter such atrocities as committed by Belgrade against its then citizens.

But war and such intervention come with major responsibilities and after having been paralyzed during much of the Yugoslavian successor wars the West had to have a better strategy and institutional answer once it exposed and engaged itself with the NATO Intervention against Serbia proper.

It was clear -significant investment in infrastructure, reconstruction, economic development are on the agenda - but as well the West had to invest in a new form of regional cooperation necessary to lead the soft underbelly of Europe, former European Turkey, South Eastern Europe, the Balkans or who you want to call the region between Vienna and Istanbul, dominating the European politics for long and during the decline of the Ottoman Empire from the Vienna Congress to the Paris Peace Conference and actually ever since then.

It was time to get it right then. The tool for that was the June 1999 established Stability Pact for South Eastern Europe. Not all such efforts are successful, but it was the right idea, whose time was come and it turned out to be very successful. Actually Ukraine was an observer member back then. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stability_Pact_for_South_Eastern_Europe Ukraine was active and supportive during these hard wars for the Balkans And it helped when help was need most. Today is unforgotten Ukraine help for Albania overwhelmed with the Kosovo refugee crisis and Ukraine peacekeeper contributing to security in Southern Kosovo as part of the UNMIK mission. One of the reason for success of the Stability Pact has not big budgets but great leadership. The Balkans was fortunate and blessed by the coincidence that the Former Vice Prime Minister and long term central European networker and leading pro European and pro Balkan politician Dr Erhard Busek was asked to coordinate that Pact and instead of stability he fostered growth and established the largest and most successful network of sector reform organization still in full action today covering all vital areas from transport to education, from energy to fighting corruption.

Dr Busek was the instrumental political leader for Austrian EU accession in 1995 and had strong American backing and a history of support for Anti Communist opposition groups in Central Europe and was the right personality. He was as well the driver to dissolve the Pact and go from emergency stability focus to a full regional international organization, the Regional Cooperation Council bringing former war parties to one table and uniting the Balkans in its European ambition despite the legacy of war, terror and bloodshed. And it worked. Now Slovenia and Croatia are in EU and NATO and Romania and Bulgaria as well. Albania and Montenegro in NATO. Montenegro and Serbia as negotiating EU membership and have some chapters closed already. Macedonia is candidate and waiting for opening negotiations this year and Kosovo and Bosnia are potential candidates with Stability and Association Agreement in force. And all are much more prosperous, stable and peaceful and secure countries than ever before and attracting tourists from Western Europe again and some are booming with 5% growth, attracting FDI and are considerable richer in GDP per capita than Ukraine. Yes, what happening with the observer in the Stability Pact, Ukraine? Ukraine somehow did not join the transition to the RCC back in 2008. Maybe Ukraine during that phase after the orange revolution and the 2008 insights between the leaders of the Orange times and the 2008 independent of Kosovo, Bucharest summit of NATO and Georgian war and financial crisis did not have the focus to join or whatever the reason Ukraine is not member of the RCC today.

Obviously, after the 2014 Pro European Revolution and the Crimean Annexation by Russian Aggression and the Donbas War Ukraine leadership was too busy to focus on RCC membership in distant Sarajevo but now in 2017 maybe in the next phase are the emergency phase is over and the strategic phase of reconstruction and post Maidan nation building is here such a membership might be considered for Ukraine now committed to EU and NATO membership? There is a reason being RCC and why the US and EU support it and it has proven very effective and it is there to prove its effectiveness for Ukraine as well. Let us see who is member http://www.rcc.int/pages/97/participants-from-see Basically, including Turkey and Moldova every state between Adriatic, Aegean and Black Sea. Greece, yes, Slovenia Yes. Please take a look. Kosovo is and so is Macedonia. 5 EU member states. 6 future Member states. Moldova and Turkey is there but where is Ukraine? Did Ukraine not care or was it not invited? Who knows? What matters is, that the RCC is open for Ukraine and Ukraine would profit a lot from the decade of accumulated regional pro European reform experience.

Learning from Poland is good but the situational differential between Ukraine and Poland is now already a major obstacle for this. Learning from Serbia, Bulgaria, Croatia and Albania might be much more useful for Ukraine right now and making friends and building alliance with 5 EU member countries and 6 future EU member countries is for a country firmly committee to EU future - and facing stiff opposition from Russia and sadly from some EU member States – some good friends might be very useful during such accession discussion where every country has a vote in the European Council, send a EU commissioner and send MEP to European parliament. So why not joining the RCC and make some friends there? Sadly, many in Ukraine still perceive the Balkans in 1999 terms. War, poverty, Islam, Sadness, Migration and Misery and the image of the Balkans in Ukraine – and yes this was true. But we have now 2017 and the combined efforts and the miracle of peace and freedom and the attraction, guidance, support of the West and the prospects of EU accession and the hard work of its citizens and companies and yes the result of smart regional cooperation and sector reform organization like RCC have resulted in the outcome that even the poorest SEE country – the Republic of Kosovo is 80% richer than Ukraine now in 2017. And it looked like the Donbas today back than in 1999 and is now attracting international tourists and investors. Sadly, some in the Balkans are perceiving Ukraine as distant, not interested in the Balkans, busy with itself and are afraid of its economic power and afraid to attract Russian wreath by supporting Ukraine and some, sadly are openly supporting Russia in this conflict despite their EU perspectives. Some friends of the Balkans in the EU are afraid that Ukraine will slow down EU integration of the Balkans and including Ukraine in RCC will make proceeding and progress more complicated and increase Russian Anti Balkan in EU activities and bring the whole Russian relation debate back to the Balkans. Some in Brussels prefer EAP style distance and try to avoid too many alliances of applicants in good old imperial divide and rule tactics. Some experts know only the Balkans and some only the Ex Soviet space and are not ready to learn and leave their comfort zone in which they know the language and history and players and background and happy to utter their prejudices presented as objective truths and academic wisdoms or a opinions and policies of their institutions sadly not reflective of new circumstances and changing political realities. Some as well reflect the current EU enlargement fatigue of some of the electorates back home and mixed that with their duties as European officials working for European strategic objectives. Some in the Balkans like the set up in the region with Belgrade dominating regional structure after Croatia has matured to EU membership and some have a bit of nostalgia for the time of Yugoslavia. And some have not. And many in Ukraine, and the Balkans do not know each other at all and all are happy to hide their ignorance behind arrogance and considering its own nation and status as superior is a common human trait but not the best one. Some, consider Ukraine as simple too big, too complicate, too much at war, too foreign and too competitive to be integrated in RCC but if Ukraine can not even convince its neighbors to accept it in RCC which has no supranational power and no common market how can Ukraine hope to join the EU with its deep economic and political integration achievements? Some in the RCC - now after the July 2007 Trieste summit -want to integrate much deeper developing a Regional Economic Area, later a regional customs union and to implement the great projects of the European SEE Infrastructure Interconnectivity agenda under the Berlin for Balkans process which Germany has started - not at least to give the Balkans some direction after the 2014 Russian aggression shock and they think that Ukraine RCC membership might disturb such integration. Good, but Ukraine has a lot to offer as well in terms of market size, IT capacity and industrial potential and a larger market would be useful for the still very miniscule and fragmented Balkan market and protectionism will lead nowhere than stagnation and misery. And for the few who know the Balkans and Ukraine both would be a perfect match in terms of market and potential and enhanced competition would benefits consumer in both region and mutual reinforcing its position would help us as well. And Ukraine matters in the world, has a voice and access which the Balkan countries even together do not have and even Serbia as only medium size country is less significant compared to Ukraine in the size of Poland or Spain and having more than double the size of the Western Balkan 6 right now. Instead of holding or delaying anything Ukraine will add a lot and speed up the EU future of the whole region. And anyhow what else do with Ukraine? Does anybody have a better strategic alternative route for Ukraine now? Some member state of EU for whatever reason some connect to fear of Russia, some on dependence of Russia, some afraid for their own EU budget position or some because of their own issues in and their own priorities are not welcoming a EU future of Ukraine in the foreseeable future. We who want that - we have to find an integration trajectory and taking the proven one –is the wiser choice than inventing one. Some in Ukraine might say – and some in the Balkans are saying the EU wants to buy time and delay with such mechanism which might be true but for sure EU accession need significant changes, reforms and effort and time which can be achieved better and faster in peer, regional, reform organization than alone. And the better prepared the EU accession countries and hopefully Ukraine will be soon one of them the easier the European elite can convince the European electorate and prosperity depends on institutional reforms and where to learn better than from similar countries just some years ahead. And nothing stops anybody to surprise Europe positively with even faster and more significant results. But let us work with working institutions with a proven track record. And the RCC works very well. And there will be no extra European highway for Ukraine. And there is only one EU Enlargement mechanism, there is only one NATO enlargement process and there is one EU to join and only one USA to support it and only one Russian federation to oppose it. And working with likeminded peers in same process and trajectory and with whom you share once achieved a common responsibly of EU budget and joint NATO defense why not start very early to work in regional context together already now? And the idea of regional cooperation is to learn, jointly improve, compete and improve sectors, public services and reality of quality of live and prosperity for all and friends and neighbors united for Europe to be united in Europe.

2. CEFTA Why Ukraine Should Join the Central European Free Trade Agreement Since September 1, the historic Ukraine-EU Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement is in force. The debate about the next step of Ukraine’s EU integration is in full swing. Ukraine has declared it strategic national priority to apply for membership by 2020, but that is hardly realistic since the EU member states are divided and enlargement is seen as challenging for elites and electorates in the EU. For Ukraine, the right step now is to follow the successful track record of Central European countries in their EU integration. Ukraine is currently in a similar situation as the six EU candidate and potential candidate countries from South Eastern Europe. They have to wait in line, while reforming at home and convincing the EU of the benefits of extended membership. Progress on membership will depend on reforms and prosperity of the candidates. If they jointly pursue reforms and progress in prosperity, they will accelerate the accession to the EU of all candidates as the Nordic, Baltic, Benelux, and the Visegrad countries have proven. All European countries are entitled to apply for EU membership according to the European Treaty, and when they have fulfilled the Copenhagen criteria on democracy, rule of law, and market economic development, the EU can hardly turn them down. The question is how most effectively to accomplish that. As strategic European integration gradually replaces the post- Maidan crisis, we recommend that Ukraine apply for membership of the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) as the next stepping stone toward EU accession. In 1992, Poland, Czechoslovakia and Hungary, the Visegrad countries, founded the CEFTA, which has functioned as a useful preparation for EU membership. As countries have joined the EU, they have departed from CEFTA, while other countries with the ambition to join the EU have joined CEFTA. Slovenia, Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia all acceded to CEFTA and left when the successfully upgraded to full EU membership. At present, CEFTA has seven members – Albania, Bosnia- Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, and Serbia. They all joined in 2006-7. Its headquarters is located in Brussels among the European Commission buildings. Membership requires membership of the World Trade Organization (WTO), Association Agreement with the EU, and free trade agreement with the current CEFTA members. It does facilitate trade among these countries and prepares them for EU accession. Rather than trying to develop a new Eastern Partnership Free Trade Agreement (EPFTA), Ukraine should join CEFTA. An EPFTA with Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine could not possible work. To being with, Azerbaijan and Belarus are not even members of the WTO, and they are not likely to join for many years. Second, Armenia and Azerbaijan are technically and sadly at war with one another. Third, Armenia and Belarus are members of Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union and would not be allowed to join. Face it! The Eastern Partnership does not function. That leaves three countries that are members of the WTO and have Association Agreements with the EU, namely Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine, of which Moldova is already a member of CEFTA. Since Moldova is already a member, why shouldn’t Ukraine join as well? Moreover CEFTA membership does not have to be approved by all EU member states. The Western Balkans endeavors to integrate their economies into a Regional Economic Area were agreed at the July Trieste Summit. Currently, discussions are going on about a customs union of the Balkan six. Some in the Balkans might say Ukraine integration might be a burden for them, while some Ukrainians might argue that the small market size of the current CEFTA members renders CEFTA a less attractive group of poor relatives. Furthermore the mutual knowledge of the Balkans and Ukraine is limited and both perceive each other as poor and marginal. However, combining the market, natural resources and technological capacity of Ukraine with the EU accession and impressive reform experience of the Balkans would strengthen all the countries involved. Together they could build prosperity in South-Eastern and Eastern Europe, accelerating the EU accession for all members of CEFTA. Instead of considering setting up an EPFTA, which in the unlikely event that it would be formed, would take years to negotiate statues, headquarter, conventions, etc., Ukraine should join CEFTA, which is a highly successful free trade agreement with the splendid record of graduating eight former members into full EU member states. Georgia should also be encouraged to join CEFTA. If other Eastern Partnership countries would fulfill the conditions for CEFTA membership, the organization will be open for them. An enlarged CEFTA would improve all members economies and facilitate their EU accession, and it would hardly be politically controversial given that Moldova has already been a member for nine years. Ukraine can fulfill all the conditions for CEFTA membership in 2018 to become a full member by January 2019. Thus, CEFTA can serve as the next essential building block for western integration of Ukraine. Anders Åslund is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. Gunther Fehlinger is Chairman of ETR https://euobserver.com/opinion/139205

3. NATO via the Adriatic Charter

Ukraine, join the Adriatic Charter And enter NATO via the southern back door Ukraine after the pro European Revolution of Dignity has declared NATO membership its significant and overreaching strategic objective. Good, that is excellent and very welcome. But there are some issue like Russian opposition, the war in Donbas, the occupation of Crimea and sadly, significant opposition of some European NATO member state to declare the burning border of Ukraine and Russia as their Article 5 protected defense line. Meaning to sacrifice their soldiers and peace for the defense the Ukrainian Eastern border, current called the Eastern Front in Ukrainian TV and indeed the front line is further inland from that border so the situation is more than messy and full NATO membership and with it full article 5 guarantee for the 2,295.04 kilometers of Russian European border or which 409.3 kilometers are currently not under the control of Ukrainian authorities will make NATO accession not easier for Ukraine. And that was one of the key reasons for the Russian intervention as is well understood. Good, we should not reward aggression. With the 2016 Warsaw summit Ukraine got great backing against Russian aggression and there is always the Western German NATO membership case to follow but as well the case of Cyprus still divided and despite EU membership not NATO member. So full membership is and will stay a challenge for Ukraine. But NATO is growing and just in 2017 Montenegro in its 11th years of independence is now a full member with all NATO Guarantees and duty. What an achievement for that small nation just 11 years after independent and still part of the State Union Serbia Montenegro when NATO led its campaign against Serbia’s aggression against the Kosovo Albanians and leading to the liberation of Kosovo and later as well to independence of Montenegro which it lost in Paris 1919. And now Montenegro is in NATO and how was that possible so fast? With firm commitment of Montenegro, congratulations, some help of the USA and the Adriatic Charter … Maybe it is useful to refer to Vice President Pence Speech this August in Podgorcia to celebrate NATO Accession please find it online at https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/08/02/remarks-vice- president-adriatic-charter-summit

The Adriatic Charter is a US led group of pro NATO countries please find the history online at http://www.mod.gov.al/eng/index.php/security- policies/relations-with/international-and-regional-organization/90- adriatic-charter-a-5 and the outline online at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adriatic_Charter It is not widely know but very effective. This small NATO preparation group has matured 3 countries Croatia, Albania and Montenegro to full NATO membership. Macedonia and Kosovo seem to be in line next as they really really want and the Adriatic Charter serves as platform to assess the future of NATO Serbia and NATO BiH relations which are open and do not forget the 1999 war for Kosovo liberation in which NATO led a major air war against Serbian military assets which is still very much in the present in the public of Serbia. Still Serbia is member of the Adriatic Charter since 2008 the year of Kosovo impendence. Please do not forget that NATO is still present and very much so in Kosovo http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_48818.htm and is present in Bosnia which now as well aspires to join NATO. And so Serbia could be the only non-NATO countries in SEE but the debate is going on. http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/rough-times-ahead- for-serbia-s-military-neutrality-06-12-2017 So what does that mean for Ukraine and its NATO membership ambitions? As some of the larger western European NATO states are more reluctant for NATO membership the smaller new NATO members of the Balkans like Croatia, Montenegro and Albania have a clearer understanding of Russian aggression and are supportive to Ukraine struggle against Russian aggression. And they are already voting members. And the Adriatic Charter process is a US led pro NATO preparation group. And the current debate on NATO enlargement includes Bosnia, Macedonia and Kosovo and Ukraine and Georgia and nobody else currently and in foreseeable future. So why not align and apply to be invited? Good, Ukraine is not at the Adriatic Sea but neither is Kosovo, nor Macedonia. The name does not matter, the tool matters and it is there. It was once the Vilnius Group and then the Adriatic Charter and it works and fulfils it mission of preparing for NATO accession so why is Ukraine not joining and building alliances with other pro NATO accession candidate who Ukraine will commit to defend as future member within the Article 5 defense guarantee anyhow by all means? Ukraine joining the Adriatic Charter would as well challenge the tradition neutrality and in- between position of Serbia between EU accession and transitional links with Russia. And Ukraine matters in size and capacities but still the USA is the dominant power of the NATO and beyond and convincing the US by showing Ukraine capacities and contribution to Balkan NATO accession might earn some extra points possible needed in future. Some time justice and alliance building is like an Alpine hiking path, often upwards steep but in serpentines exhausting and tiring but towards the peak for sure, and worth the effort. And having friends and reasons to visit the Adriatic Coasts will be popular with Ukrainian military and defense staff for sure. And when it leads to NATO membership for Ukraine it is certainly worth the detour.

4. The Health Network

Ukraine, Join the SEE Health Network http://seehn.org/ This is the last of the ETR Series of 19 SEE Regional Networks Ukraine is not member still and should join now. It is interesting case with health and public health policy as the focus, always a major concern and major budget item and as well interesting in our series of analyzing the SEE regional structure has in this case Israel is member and Turkey is not, nor is Greece. Moldova is but the Republic of Kosovo of Kosovo is not. So membership is recommend for both ETR focus countries Ukraine and Kosovo. ETR is confident that after the very successful visit of the Ukrainian PM in Moldova this week the Moldavian Government will be willing to help to open this important sector of regional cooperation for Ukraine and Albania for sure ready to help Kosovo and a new drive for http://seehn.org/about-the-see-health- network/organization/member-countries/ would be certainly very helpful for the whole health sector in the whole region. It is a major issues in SEE and the region is having less life quality and as well a major drain in purchasing power due to many operation done in Turkey or Austria or elsewhere due to the lack of quality service and top level medicine. But that is just one aspect which are very specialized but all certainly very important from transmissible diseases, policies exchange on public health, blood safety, education for medical profession, technical standards, organs donation, reform experiences and best practices or possible help in emergencies common projects in certain areas or swapping experts in specific areas or the effective design of public health policy under EU accession and the whole area of health economics, and pharmaceuticals just the mention markets of billion and budgets of billions as well from the Adriatic to the Black Sea there is certainly a lot of benefit from regional cooperation on health. Maybe worth to mention that the same partners of SEEHN the WHO Europe, Council of Europe and its development bank are as well certainly supporting the health sector in Ukraine and why not join the efforts and learn from each other? Every medical professional and public health expert will appreciate the opportunity and it will improve the debate, policy and reality for patients, professionals and taxpayers in Ukraine and Europe for sure. Time to join SEEHN, Ukraine.

5. Ukraine, Join the Center for Public Employment Services www.cpessec.org ETR has discussed the urgent requirement for a reform and opening of the Ukrainian labor market already during the European Ukraine- Accelerate Reforms – Jointly with the European Balkans. And indeed it is necessary and would bring major benefits in increase of employment and higher growth rates. But would it not be useful to cooperate and learn from the labor market regulation of similar countries some in EU and some in process of joining the EU who come from similar socialist background and undergoing a chaotic transition and now gradually moving to European standards of labor market regulation? Membership in CPESSEC would be certainly useful for the Ukrainian State Employment Agency. Reform of the labor market is one issue, but as well to see how the EU mechanism of ESF and similar instruments work in EU Member Countries like Croatia and to understand the policy mix of active labor market measure, as well as the role of VET in skills development and reduction of employment, as well to combination of social security instruments and employment protection and labor market and how this works in similar transition countries working towards EU standards. All this would be certainly very useful. Sadly, Ukraine State Employment agency http://www.dcz.gov.ua/ can not be found on the website of http://www.cpessec.org/members.php Discussing issue like minority employment, effective service of state labor agencies, European program, best practices, role of media, VET and life long education and skill upgrading, managing industrial change, European Social Dialogue, migrant entrepreneurship and general economic issues of SMEs , Start Up Culture and competitiveness what exactly would be bad for the DCZ staff to hear and learn from? And certainly all SEE agency would be interested to learn and hear about Ukraine ambitions in European and ultimately there will be one European labor market in which Ukraine wants to be in, or not? In the EU we have the freedom of labor meaning that now the Romanians and the Bulgarian can work where they want in all EU. One day this will be possible for all Ukrainians as well so preparing for it now might be useful and measuring in similar statistic and data might be a good start. As well more urgent might be the cooperation to open partly and step by step the market for skilled labor from Ukraine in EU as Poland has done already and a gradually opening of the EU labor market for Ukraine is certainly one major offer the EU could do. As well now after Visa Opening already the trend to work in the EU will accelerate and information on condition, rights and how to do that legally and how to avoid wrong expectation and possible exploitation and many other issues certainly arise and close coordination with authorities managing the labor market would be certainly very useful for Ukraine, SEE and the EU.

6. Ukraine, Join the Regional Youth Cooperation Office www.rycowb.org The RYCO, as it is called, cool and street-smart -as it should being an international organization focused on youth and as fresh as from 2017. The latest kid on the bloc, not born from the Stability Pact, not from RCC but from the Berlin Process for the Balkans, the top level dialogue under German leadership. But all who want to see the handwriting of Dr Busek see it and indeed it is part of his effort to have a separate but parallel civil society dialogue with mega-events at all Berlin for Balkans summer summits up to now and this youth cooperation office - a kind of Erasmus for the Balkans - is a result of the civil society pressure asking for a better understanding of the young generation of the region whose father have been at war and it is up to this generation to work for a European future of the region together. It was a long but successful birth and now there is RYCO. Success has many reasons and role models and obviously the most famous of all such youth exchange project in Europe is the Franco-German Youth Works https://www.dfjw.org/ which has done so much to bring the millennial arch enemies together not just in the EU but as well in society and economy. RYCO will not reach that level but it might if Ukraine and its significance and size join. The structure is there, some funding and marketing and political will and a lot of Ukrainians could learn about the 6 Balkan states and a lot of the youth of the 6 Balkans states could learn about Ukraine. Good, ETR has understood already that Ukraine does not consider itself a Balkan or a SEE country but there are more and more Ukrainians spending their holiday in Montenegro and Albania by the way already NATO members and there is a lot in common in terms of objectives like NATO and EU. So why not try to join the common effort to bringing the youth together and train them in understanding the region, the EU, NATO, youth issues and challenges and how to address them? It worked very well for Germany and France and will so in the Balkans and why not join such new institution from the start and set so the first building block have the Ukraine Balkans pro EU and pro NATO alliance? The road to RYCO is the title of the very impressive website but it is brand new, based in Tirana, the surprising modern New York of the Balkans the capital of NATO Albania by the way a staunchly pro-American country and nation - and the RYCO leadership would be certainly very welcoming to a visit of the Ukraine Ministry of Youth. Ukraine could do the same for the 6 EaP countries and continue to learn but Belarus and Azerbaijan, great nations and countries no doubt but for sure far from EU and NATO and possible never to join. The 6 Balkan countries will all join for sure, it is guaranteed in Thessaloniki in 2003 and many times in between and the youth leaders will be leaders of the their nations and decide on Ukraine EU and NATO future and so why not be there now when its starts and join this new effort and lead it to similar success like the German French model and open the minds and hearts and join Europe – not by gate crashing the golf club of rich and secure nations but joining the launch party south east and show that you are a contribution and party onwards towards full membership. Nobody wants to stay in line and youth knows no patience but joining the EU and NATO will require some time given the differential in wealth and development and confrontation reality east of the eastern EU border today. So forming long-term alliances and joining Youth Cooperation Council might not seem the priority when at war but it is, if you really want to join the EU.

7. The SEE Defence Network Ukraine, first join RACVIAC www.racviac.org

It is time to get realistic and achieve concrete results. This means not stopping on insisting and stubbornly and rightfully so –on future membership of Ukraine in NATO. It is right to insist on it and it will happen one day as it did for Montenegro and Albania and it will with Macedonia and Kosovo. But it will not happen in 2019 nor anytime soon if not the circumstances change but with the sad reality of Russian aggression in Donbas and annexation of Crimea it is hard to image a Article 5 guarantee for Ukrainian borders, borders Ukraine does not control itself. But Ukraine can show strong commitment to the NATO alliance - as it does no doubt - and make a big step closer to the alliance by joining RACVIAC, the Center for Security Cooperation in South East Europe. With membership so south as Norway and east as the UK Ukraine can fit quite easy in. It was established as the Regional Center for Arms Control in 2000 after the Balkan Wars and has broadened its scope to a wide range of politic military issues. Please read the mission statement. http://www.racviac.org/about/mission.html and see the website and why not put the Ukrainian flag there. Most of the NATO countries interested in the region are there already. And it is the same countries that will decide about Ukraine NATO membership and possible the same decision makers from the same Defense Ministries and Army Staff HQ are attending NATO and RACVIAC meetings and training and making friends could be quite helpful in the upcoming application process. Ukraine is facing many challenges in the military field but is the only European country currently at war and facing a major enemy Ukraine has built a very capable army in the last years and certainly the members of RACVIAC will be very interested to have Ukraine sharing experience and contribute and the task which this regional organization has set itself seems to be what Ukraine needs a lot from issues of peace and security, security sector reform, NATO Integration and many more sensitive tasks like de-mining, arms control and certainly many more items which are not online but certainly useful for Ukraine. Maybe Ukraine is already there but only the flag is missing or Ukraine maybe does not need any help or Ukraine has some clear highway to NATO membership which ETR does not know and has not read about and no time for such platforms? From ETR and taxpayers view such regional networking would be as well very useful for the security and defense staff of Ukraine and Ukraine would be certainly very welcome. Even NATO members take time, effort and care for RACVIAC so why should Ukraine not join RAVIAC and show the Ukrainian Defense Sector cares for the same issues like RACVIAC was established for?

8. SEE Rule of Law Network

Ukraine, join SELEC the Southeastern European Law Enforcement Center www.selec.org Everybody is there, but not Ukraine. The same picture like in most Regional Reform and Coordination and Peer working mechanisms with the beautiful exception of the Energy Community – all in from Adriatic to Black Sea mostly including Greece, some have Turkey but almost non of the 20 entities to bring South Eastern Europe to EU and NATO by learning and benchmarking and promoting cooperation with positive competition is honored to have the contribution of the capricious beauty of Ukraine. It is astonishing for ETR and maybe there is a secret non-obvious reason, which ETR could not identify up to now and would be grateful to learn. Because you do not need to be a nuclear scientist to see the obvious advantages of such a regional network for the participating country. Luckily, they all exist at a time when Ukraine needs them the most and so we strongly recommend joining and especially SELEC with its crucial focus on Law Enforcement working cross border on key issues like smuggling people, cars, drugs and weapons and containers and the content of it from Russia, Middle East or Africa and cooperating on Antiterrorism, Financial crime and Environment Crime. Certainly these are as well major issues in Ukraine and for Ukraine with the EU Member states bordering it. And learning and close cooperation within SELEC is a no brainer. Competent law enforcement is as well key to reduce complicated border and customs procedures and resulting waiting time and so the better the authorities cooperate the better for business and people and the fast the fuel potential for the DCFTA EU Ukraine can be realized. Such a cooperation fits very well along the outlined mechanism for training of Public Administration within RESPA http://www.respaweb.eu/ and the platform for the cooperation of http://www.seepag.info/ the South East European Prosecutors Advisory Group as well a vital element of strengthening the rule of law. This has many aspects like better public administration better public prosecutors, and better emergency response preparedness http://www.dppi.info/ and for sure as well in the Law Enforcement sector, basically the police, financial police, customs and the Departments in the Ministry of Interior and Justice supervising and guiding them. And of course this helps the Anti Corruption struggle and for these agencies SEE has its own regional body http://rai-see.org/ And maybe participating in all these meetings and structures would bring a lot of good ideas to Ukraine what works in EU accession SEE and maybe that is the reason why the political leaders of Ukraine do not allow their rule of law sector too much exposure to too many European ideas and network sand want to continue the way they do business right now. But that way will recently not lead in the EU. That is for sure.

True, Ukraine is reforming lot. As well in the sector of rule of law enforcement major progress has been achieved but the challenge still remains enormous. In Communism there was not independence of the Rule of Law sector from the political and party leadership. It takes Herculean effort to change this and can mostly only be done finally in EU supranational context with decision makers far from the access of local leaders and not at all in their personal or business dependency networks. Serious reformer are working in a proven regional framework for systematically reforming all vital sectors of the rule of law and so overwhelm the resistance of vested interested by a mix of political leadership, civil society and media pressure, but as well always with the European authority and regional success stories and describing such improvement as inevitable European obligation and refer to the regional success stories and drive the transparency, rule of law and accountability agenda relentless forwards. And yes Romania and Bulgaria are a success story and cleaner, better administrated and less corrupted than ever. And so is all the Balkans now ahead of Ukraine in the Transparency Rankings of TI and maybe it is time to go regional and learn from the success of the countries that just some years ago were on Ukraine level of corruption and misery.

And learning from Scandinavia that is great but these Nordic countries are miles ahead even of Austria and it will take a century to reach such levels. Yes for ambitious reform agenda but if targets are not realistic then frustration and opposition mounts and eventually, God forbid, we might loose Ukraine the 3rd time since independence. That shall not happen, so let us work on the step by step strategy via SEE to Europe and reforming together and ensure credible success together and keep the EU open for a EU with 37 by showing, convincing and proving that the European periphery is ready for EU with decent standards and the EU has to be ready to justify massive transfer eastwards to the European taxpayers based on such improved standards. If that case cannot be made by European politicians credible there will be no Ukraine EU Member state ever with all the connected negative results attached to it.

So let us stay positively and please see SELEC and please send ETR feedback on why such a body is not appropriate network for Ukraine or better simple join and learn and contribute and ensure European standards of Law Enforcement in Ukraine, step by step together with the SEE EU accession countries and not left out, alone somewhere in-between the EU and Russia without friends and partners and peers. Since ETR has started the campaign for European Ukraine in November 2016 to adopt to European SME policy for Ukraine and than the Austrian Committee YES TO UKRAINE in EU and now the 3rd with - European Ukraine together with European Balkans United to EU in fact ETR has met only a few personalities from the EU and EU accession countries in Kyiv and in the EU and in the Balkans who really believe in a realistic EU accession perspective for Ukraine. It maybe that in Poland and the Baltic’s and Croatia the support is higher but the overwhelming view is the DCFTA with Ukraine was enough and enough for a long time. Maybe that is a wrong impression. Maybe. Hopefully, so, but it is certainly the impression now in 2017 from ETRs humble perspective. Never ETR faced such an opposition, nor did ETR find such a strong difference and divide between the European accession request of a clearly European country and the reality of what the EU is ready to concede as next steps. Even the Republic of Kosovo, which still sadly is not recognized by 5 EU member states, is far more advanced than Ukraine. https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood- enlargement/countries/check-current-status_en#pc - and despite this situation the Ukrainian authorities are not considering the alliances with the SEE Accession countries but complain that EU does not understand and blame all on Putin. True, there is sadly, Russian influence in some and in deed many Member States but Ukraine in today condition would as well not be much farer in EU accession than today with a more neutral Russia opposition. First, the product must be massively improved and second the marketing and alliance and confidence building must be the priority and not the blaming. And here the 18 regional reform bodies matter - not just for the content - but as well for the symbol that Ukraine is getting ready for the EU and understands how the EU operates. Start with joining SELEC and impress and contribute and this will have significant impact in Ukraine and in Member States capitals and the signal will be understood by time and Ukraine will find its rightful and secure place at the European table but in meantime learning and improving jointly with friends is about eh best if not only way ahead for European Ukraine. The objective of SELEC, within the framework of cooperation among Competent Authorities, is to provide support for Member States and enhance coordination in preventing and combating crime, including serious and organized crime, where such crime involves or appears to involve an element of trans-border activity. 12 MEMBER STATES: Republic of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Republic of Bulgaria, Republic of Croatia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Hellenic Republic, Hungary, Republic of Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, Republic of Serbia and Republic of Turkey. http://www.selec.org/m107/Member+States TASKS OF SELEC The new Convention provides for SELEC to: • Coordinate regional operations and support investigations and crime prevention activities of the Member States in trans-border cases; • Provide the Member States with the opportunity to exchange information and criminal intelligence and offer operational assistance in a quick and timely manner; • Collect, collate, analyze, process and disseminate information and criminal intelligence; • Produce strategic analysis and threat assessments related to its objective; • Establish, operate and maintain a computerized information system, which implies also to ensure the protection of personal data. The beneficial gain for the Members States, as well as the Center's partners, will be found in the ability to handle result-oriented multinational investigations and operations in the South Eastern European region with a minimal investment. SELEC aspires to continue being a depositary of good practices in law enforcement and providing awareness through multinational meetings and conferences, bringing together the representatives of Member States as well as of its partners. SELEC - A STEP FORWARD On 7th of October 2011 the SECI Center became SELEC, while its operational and strategic capabilities were maintained and transferred to the new SELEC. SELEC inherits the success of SECI Center - 12 years of operational activities, joint investigations, meetings, workshops and strategic analysis covering the most sensitive trans-border criminal fields in the South Eastern European region. Throughout this period, the intensive exchange of information through the liaison officers and Center’s communication channels successfully supported the efforts of the law enforcement agencies in the Member States. From an operational perspective, the new SELEC maintains flexibility and operational effectiveness, while enhancing the analysis capacity with a broader information system and an adequate level of protection of personal data in line with EU standards. The new Convention provides an international legal personality to the Center and also defines and sustains cooperation with other major international law enforcement organizations.

9. Disaster prevention –civil protection Ukraine, Join the Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Initiative for South Eastern Europe www.dppi.info Natural disasters know no borders. Floods, earthquakes, wild fires and storms but as well winter related disasters like massive snow or avalanches often concern whole regions and unite them in misery and pain. Natural disasters can often overwhelm the capacity of the emergency responder of a country facing such disasters. And to build and maintain the capacities and coordinate the various civil protection, emergency responders from ambulances and medical service, voluntary and professional fire brigades, military and militia reserves with their heavy equipment, police and municipal support staff and national emergency coordinator is a challenges and to coordinate international support as well. That is why the countries of SEE under guidance of the stability pact of SEE have decided to set a regional platform to develop, enhance and coordinate their efforts and somehow Ukraine did not join that during the last decade and it is never to late to improve. The storms and the floods are the same in Romania and Ukraine and if not hit the same way countries can share experts and capacities, often very expensive tools like airplanes to fight wild fires like Ukraine has done with such spectacular publicity and popularity success this summer in Montenegro sending their fire fighting airplanes which small Montenegro has not and this was the right thing to do and congratulations for Ukraine. So it works as well without DPPI one might say but the argument of systematic preparation of the civil protection and Disaster preparedness sin the regional pre EU accession context is still very strong. Civil protection is very connecting with the key sectors of the state from military, national guards police, fire and emergency and security sector and with NATO accession please see the DPPI SEE partnerships http://www.dppi.info/dppi-see/partnerships Civil Preparedness is as well very much about peacetime preparation in common communication and operation and technical standards, knowledge of capacities and skills available, Database management and training and skills and coordination development of services to be prepared when required. And sadly such cases happen. In Austria the cooperation between the voluntary fire brigade the and military reserve system and the police on local and national level e.g. is working very well and still despite being a rich and developed country there is a lack of airplanes and helicopters in major emergency and without NATO and EU capacity sharing this is simple too expensive. This sector has also concrete peace time dividend if done well with reduction of road accident, speed of emergency intervention time for accidents and health and crime related interventions and if done well a good combination of a national guards reserve military with a regional based voluntary fire brigade system like in Austria provides for excellent training ground as well for later military service and national mobilization after service in the reserve system of the army. And the army as well being able to keep the expensive flying or other equipment in good condition for the few but vital emergencies as they might happen. This is all a science in itself and where to learn it better than from peers and neighbors have the same task and once you spend time networking in such organization you help and coordinate much easier once the need is there. Ukraine has great capacities in this sector so why do you not join DPPI and help your neighbors and they will be ready to help Ukraine as well in case needed.

Mission, Goals & Objectives of DPPI The overall goal of the DPPI SEE is to foster regional co-operation across the region in disaster preparedness and prevention. It addresses both natural and man-made disasters and seeks to operate without creating new structures or layers of bureaucracy.

The principle objectives of the Initiative are to contribute to the institutional capacity building of disaster management organisations to enhance disaster prevention and preparedness in the countries of the SEE region by:

• Serving as a regional network and facilitator in disaster preparedness and prevention of natural and man-made disasters in the SEE region;

• Enhance cooperation among the DPPI SEE member countries in view of the EU enlargement and theprocess of Euro-Atlantic integration; • Strengthen good neighbourly relations and stability through the exchange of information and identifying and sharing lessons learnt and best practices in the field of disaster management;

• Supporting countries in the SEE region in their efforts to further develop disaster preparedness and prevention through common approach and cooperation with all relevant international organisations and bodies, especially the EU Civil Protection Mechanism; Strengthening and enhancing bilateral and multilateral cooperation, facilitating exchange of information in the field of disaster preparedness and prevention at all levels among competent national disaster management authorities and other relevant institutions in the SEE region, in accordance with the national regulations regarding the exchange of information.

South East Europe is prone to disasters that transcend borders and overwhelm the capacity of a single country to cope. The level of preparedness and prevention capacities varies considerably from country to country. Some threats, such as flooding and forest fires tend to be seasonal in nature and thus present opportunities for immediate preparedness measures and mutual cooperation between neighbouring nations. In November 2000, the Stability Pact for South Eastern Europe launched the “Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Initiative” (DPPI) in an effort to contribute to the development of a cohesive regional strategy for disaster preparedness and prevention for its 12 member States (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Greece, Romania, Serbia and Montenegro, Slovenia and Turkey). The DPPI has been conceived as an activity that seeks to provide a framework for South Eastern European nations to develop programs and projects leading to strengthened capabilities in preventing and responding to natural and man-made disasters. It also brings together donor countries and international governmental and non-governmental organizations to coordinate ongoing activities and identify unmet needs in order to improve the efficiency of national disaster management systems within the regional cooperation framework. The overarching goal of the DPPI is to foster regional cooperation and coordination in disaster preparedness and prevention for natural and man-made disasters in South Eastern Europe, without creating new structures or layers of bureaucracy. The DPPI attempts to:

• Strengthen good neighbourly relations and stability through the exchange of information, lessons learnt and best practices in the field of disaster management

• Enhance cooperation between DPPI partners in view of EU enlargement and the process of Euro – Atlantic integration for SEE countries

• Support and encourage countries in the region to develop, adopt and/or enforce state-of-the-art disaster emergency legislation, environmental regulations and codes designed to prevent and mitigate disasters in line with guidelines and common practices accepted in the international community.

• Assist and encourage countries in the region to implement the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005 – 2015 Transition After the completion of the transition process from the Stability Pact for SEE to the regionally-owned Regional Cooperation Council, established on 27 February 2008 a new stage begins for the cooperation between countries in South-East Europe. In the capacity of the operational arm of the South-East European Cooperation Process (SEECP), the Regional Cooperation Council with its Secretariat in Sarajevo took over the coordination of relevant initiatives and task forces inherited from the Stability Pact for South Eastern Europe

10. Education Reform Ukraine, join the Education Reform Initiative of South Eastern Europe www.erisee.org

Quality education is a central task for all nations. Especially though, in transformation and nation building efforts as currently Ukraine is undergoing is has a special task and priority. Ukraine is redefining itself Post Euromaidan Revolution as a new pro Western modern European country firmly committed to European values and EU and NATO integration as central national objective. For both, education reform is critical and Ukraine needs to be applauded for the new Law of Education now in force since September 2017.

But sadly, the success is spoilt by the negative reaction of some neighbors of Ukraine with Hungarian and Romania using that issue sadly for other agendas but as they are member of the EU - which Ukraine wants to join- this matters and needs to be addressed. And allow this question. Would better regional cooperation in education and knowing and networking with other regional Ministry of Education in such reform issues not helped to avoid such a reaction at the most unnecessary point of time?

The value of such identity and state building in the Ukrainian periphery is certainly based on valid argument of equal opportunities in Ukraine. But after 26 years of indendence lost in stagnation and kleptocracy and neglect on that issue to recover all lost time- right now when Ukraine could need friends in EU more than new enemies is really questionable. And without wanting to add insult to injury a bit more Ukrainian language in Kyiv used by the population and elite would help nation building more right now than teaching it for the next generation in the regions close to Hungary and Romania possible a 1000 km away from Kyiv.

And rest assured that if Ukraine is a successful EU country a lot of people will want to learn Ukrainian and the success of Ukraine EU integration and the attached prosperity and attractiveness will be boosting Ukraine’s identity and the pride of its citizens much more efficient and with lasting impact then any law of education. But for more on that debate please see http://euromaidanpress.com/2017/09/19/ukraines-new-education-law- causes-international-storm-over-minority-language-status/ Minority education challenges are common in all of Central and Eastern and South Eastern Europe having been governed for most history by 4 big multiethnic Empires and now over 20 new states govern the Central, Eastern and South Eastern European space- all with identity issues and minority education challenges starting from Austria to Ukraine and the Baltic States to the Balkans and Greece and Turkey of course.

Some of these countries have decided to focus on education and get it right jointly with peers, friends and neighbors and established the Education Reform Initiative of South Eastern Europe. Currently it has 10 members from Albania to Romania, Croatia to Bulgaria and of course Moldova. And, if Moldova can be member why can Ukraine not be? Is Ukraine not one of these new states developed from the past Empires and now reforming its educations system to support economic revival, develop an educated, wide middle class as basis for democratic development and a civic society based on civic spirit and educated consumer and active and demanding and engaged and yes patriotic citizens? Citizens the state can trust and them having trust in the state institution in a mutual bond based on a strong European education system. And is Ukraine not a South Eastern European country? Is it a Baltic or Northern European or Central European Country? This depends on the perspective but certainly it does not want to be in the same group like the Russian Federation anymore after all that happened in 2014. But the Central, Northern, Baltic countries, let us face it- these countries are already light-years ahead in about every sector. Good to be ambitious but measuring your progress with world champions might be demotivating in your 4th years of serious reform efforts with such open wounds and open powerful opposition.

It is hard to accept the current low level of reality in a country of so many well education people and great potential but it is as well good education to be frank among friends and to that belongs an open assessment of the facts and the clear- eyed perspective.

And yes there are the case of Georgia and Israel who both did extraordinary progress without much regional help or any help at all as well in most difficult political circumstances but Ukraine has not shown the same performance yet and given the complexities and significance it would be lose to a miracle if the political system could delivered such progress without significant regional support and clear European framework. It might in future but even if that great acceleration happens it still does not solve the basis truth that there is a lot of opposition, sadly from some EU member states to Ukraine eventual accession and you have to strategically address that. And starting by building friends who are as well current or recent EU Candidates or fresh EU member states and who are all of them as well former communist dictatorship with all the challenges attached and most of them as well with a difficult war torn past and have overcome that and focus as well on education reform would be very helpful. Possible as well to get the Ukrainian perspective on history and reality being told as well in the schools and universities of SEE and not just the Sputnik and RT persiflage, a result certainly worth in itself to attend some meeting. And possible useful to avoid such small issues like the language law paragraph on minority language going so out of control based on ignorance, incompetence and inward looking priorities which are standard for big countries but not helpful for poor big countries wanting to join the rich world clubs and offended the latest arrival who as well are status insecure and immature and sensitive on identity issues. We do not ask for humbleness or modesty but it is a sign of good education when you want to join a club that you show interest in all members, show eagerness to learn about the members concerns and rules and commit to be a good contribution and show that you will support the more difficult objectives and be solidaric with the common committements. So Ukraine, you do not see yourself as SEE but maybe from the EU side some see that is this way or at least your friends consider it useful so why not try such recommendation? So, maybe as well the EU does not have another such region pro accession mechanisms anymore because the rest of Europe is already inside as Ukraine is pretty late?

Maybe Ukraine is enjoying being the big boy in the EAP region of 6 former SU countries, which you know and feel in history and solidarity, united? That is appreciated but Moldova is already in most SEE structure and ETR is very much promoting pro European Georgia to join as well as it is already wisely in the Energy Community following the Ukrainian example. And the less pro European countries are very welcome as well and nothing stops Ukraine from supporting them but how much EU accession reform can you benchmark with Belarus? And again nothing stops you from supporting them as the Nordics have their platform with Iceland and Norway and many EU countries have commitments to non-EU countries, as Austria to Switzerland but still the priorities is the EU and Ukraine what is your priority in concrete tangible terms? And as well we have a commitment to SEE future in the EU which we do not have to Ukraine still now –very much to the regret for ETR – but if that is so - why do you not form bonds, friendship and solidarity with the luckily ones and so possible move into this package as well. Is it too much to ask? And if it is really that you are so great, successful and powerful in the future so please then help us to develop SEE as well with your competence and contribution. Currently all SEE countries are more developed economically and more advanced in EU accession agenda than Ukraine and to be honest and frank with a considerable differential and multiple.

And even if it will not have a big effect why not try and educate your Ministry of Education and its staff with attending some meeting of ERISEE and report back and learn by doing and going? Please see the mission statement of ERISEE http://www.erisee.org/node/7

Education and training are crucial in promoting knowledge based, competitive and socially cohesive societies in Europe, and play important role in responding to the chances and challenges of globalisation. They are therefore a key to sustainable development and prosperity, in particular in South Eastern Europe.

The Education Reform Initiative of South Eastern Europe (ERI SEE) supports sustainable education reforms through regional cooperation. It aims at fostering shared European standards in education and training for a rapid integration of its member countries into a wider European area of education, thus contributing to the success and sustainability of the EU integration process.

ERI SEE takes into account both country-specific needs and demands in education reforms, as well as present trends in the development of the envisaged European Area of Education, as outlined in the EU 'Detailed Work Programme on the Follow-up of the Objectives of Education and Training Systems in Europe', the 'Bologna Process' and the 'Copenhagen Process'.

ERI SEE seeks synergies between education and research through information exchange and cooperation in line with the priority 'Building Human Capital' of the Regional Cooperation Council.

ERI SEE objectives are:

• to continue the support of national education reform efforts in South Eastern Europe in the perspective of the process of EU integration and the more global developments in education and training; • to actively promote regional cooperation at system, expert and civil society level through capacity building and know-how transfer; • to facilitate information exchange and cooperation between the education and the research sector in South Eastern Europe; • to support national activities of its members related to the priorities of the ʻDetailed Work Programme on the Follow-up of the Objectives of Education and Training Systems in Europeʼ (Education & Training 2010) and follow-ups, the Copenhagen Declaration and follow-up com- muniqués (Copenhagen process) and the Bologna Declaration and the follow-up communiqués (Bologna process). Wherever and whenever possible, the ERI SEE activities will address the more global developments in education and training, to which the SEE countries have committed themselves (e.g. the World Declaration on Education for All, the Dakar Framework for Action and the Millenium Development Goals, the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child, as well as the United Nations Decade of Education for Sustainable Development 2005 - 2014).

11. Rural Development

Ukraine, Join the Region Rural Development Working Group SWG-RRD www.seerural.org

Ukraine is famous for its agriculture potential and is the largest countries in Europe, possible with the best and most fertile soil, and gifted by the Lord with the ideal climate, black soil and plenty of water and great waterways required for success in agriculture. And Ukraine wants now after the pro European Revolution of Dignity to join the EU. And Ukraine has great shining cities like Kyiv, Odessa, Liviv and others but how does the countryside look and how do people live outside of the major urban centers with the new skyscrapers and golden Byzantine Churches and cultural heritage from the golden times of the belated Industrial revolution of the Russian and Austrian Empire in the second part of the 19th century? The answer is simple. Quite empty, quite poor and quite desperate. The triple sad heritage of Russian Feudalism, Soviet Collectivism and chaotic Kleptocracy of the last century has left the countryside shattered, empty and poor. And only now with the new focus on bringing power back to the people and regions, there are gradually modest signs of improvement in the countryside and villages of Ukraine. What a contrast, when you cross the border to Poland, Slovak Republic, Hungary and Romania where visible wealth and order, possible not the blossoming landscapes promised - but much better and much richer than ever before in history. And for anybody who has ever crossed the EU Ukraine border into any of the 4 EU member states can easily recognize the difference and the magnitude of the challenges. And it is not the geography or the capacities of land and people but the history, jurisdiction, policy and focus, which explains the astonishing differences. And here we have to explain what the European Union is about. Good, it is about many things like competition, anti-subsidies and anti-discrimination and human rights and freedom and European values – ETR has covered that already but it is very much about rural development, supporting the countryside, making difference between countries and regions smaller, supporting live hood in the peripheries and improving living condition no matter where you live with a strong focus on less advantages regions and part of the EU and its accession counters. Empty words? No! Look at the major EU funding priorities like Social and Cohesion Funds, Common Agriculture Policy and Infrastructure development. Please check online http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/en/ and https://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/contact_en and https://ec.europa.eu/transport/home_en Most of the funds which are redistributed via the European level from the richer to the less developed regions and countries goes via this mechanism before and after membership to the less advantages regions and that is as well very good that way. Centralism was the failed ideology of socialism. The EU is very much the contrary – contrary to the propaganda of populists the EU is has very clear policies and working mechanism to support the regions and see the difference when you cross the EU Ukraine border yourself. And it is a useful and beneficial way of investing taxpayers funds and the part which were wasteful and part of a sad protectionist past like in CAP were massively improved during the last years. So what does that mean for Ukraine? The EU is not a golf club where paying your membership will give you entrance and access to the golf club house and that is it. But joining it means a massive transfer of billions and indeed many billions of Euros for a country of size and situation, very big size and very bad situation in the countryside, like Ukraine. See the transfers to Poland since 2004 and the transfer to Spain both similar in size and sad heritage of neglect before EU accession. And see the situation now and just image the costs of the Talgo and highways, the municipal infrastcrure, the environmental clean up and the infrastructure and the regional development. And good that is what Europe is about and good results justify the spending. But receiving such major transfers requires as well the institutions to absorb them, the transparent mechanism to disburse them and to supervise and control such major efforts. All funding comes and has to be depending on a competent administration, transparent and accountable and acting in responsible manner – how else to justify the European taxpayer such major transfers? And as we see in Poland no thank you can be expected and as the experience in Romania and Bulgaria in the first decade of membership has shown if there is a lack of capacity then things go wrong and it harms the whole European project and reduces the appetite for more enlargement. Now after a decade Romania and Bulgaria have improved significantly with major help and pressure and the results are good. What does that all mean for Ukraine now wanting to join the EU? Wanting is one part, seriously building the infrastructure of public administration capacities for such an application and the accession is a very different thing and the Ukraine is now in the 3rd wave of potential EU enlargement if at all and there is a lot of experience in good and bad practices to learn from. And regional learning from the peers and neighbors who are just now going through the process is the best method fro learn fast, build capacities and avoid failures and convince the EU that Ukraine is serious and confident and trustworthy partner for starting such a process of strategic assistance not as emergency measure but in a long terms and sustained partnership leading to fuel EU accession with all its right, privileges and yes funding and all its responsibility in a shared Union to spend funds wisely, reasonable, transparent and accountable as well for the European taxpayer. That is why in the crucial and critical area of rural development the countries of South Eastern Europe have united themselves in the SWG RRD the Standing Working Group. Please see the objective from SWG RRD: The “SWG” stands for Regional Rural Development Standing Working Group in South Eastern Europe and is an International Intergovernmental Organization, consisted of governmental institutions responsible for rural development in respective countries and territories. Its managing and coordinative body is the SWG Head Office/Secretariat, based in Skopje, Macedonia. The SWG, as a platform for networking and regional cooperation, has been established during the Agricultural Policy Forum 2005 (“Rural Development Opportunities for Co-operation in the SEE”) held in Macedonia and Serbia in June 2005. The SWG is acting as per the conclusions of the Leipzig Agricultural Policy Forum and the adopted Agenda 2004. It was founded on the basis of a common wish to establish an organization for sustainable rural development in SEE. As an organization the SWG is a non- political body, acting in a spirit of friendship and good neighborliness and enhances mutual respect and confidence, dialogue and cooperation among the Member Institutions.

In general, the SWG is working to empower and promote sustainable principles on rural development, through networking and permanent cooperation between all stakeholders of rural development in SEE region. It is intergovernmental organization responsible for initiation and preparation of regional development projects in SEE. It acts as independent agency for coordination and implementation of joint projects, as well as for carrying out project activities. Through them, the SWG serves as the facilitator in the process of strengthening regional institutions necessary to support long-term agricultural and rural development. Moreover, the teamwork by our members reinforces their individual efforts to mainstream or incorporate regional rural development concerns into all of their policies and programs. SWG is an intergovernmental organization, operating on national and regional level, responsible for initiation and preparation of regional development projects in South Eastern Europe. It acts as independent regional agency for promoting sustainable agriculture and rural development in SEE region. The SWG serves as the facilitator in the process of strengthening regional institutions necessary to support long-term agricultural and rural development policies. We support our Member Governments, academic institutions, associations and organizations in reinforcing capacity building and networking in SEE. We work together in order to increase the understanding and awareness about available information and tools, and indentify the gaps and discrepancies within the context of regional alliance. Mission of SWG RRD To increase horizontal collaboration among respective institutions- Ministries of Agriculture and international organizations for merging work directly towards Regional Rural South Eastern Europe in order to implement comprehensive policies and develop result-based initiatives. In carrying out our mission, the SWG serves to: Assure close, open, active, constructive and permanent cooperation among the Members within the scope of their responsibilities to the ongoing integration processes in the EU Stimulate and organize initiatives and activities related to rural development on national, regional and global scale Direct support for conducting studies, assessments and research in rural development Assist in strategic planning and programming for rural development Take part in activities of transnational and global rural development cooperation structures SWG RRD Vision of Rural South Eastern Europe Innovative, inclusive and sustainable agriculture and rural development strengthened by cohesive regional co-operation, and bolstered by suitable policies and programs for alleviating smoother approximation of member countries towards the European Union SWG RRD Objectives Enhance the regional co-operation among the Ministries of Agriculture in South Eastern Europe Facilitating information sharing on rural issues and rural development topics Support member institutions in identifying mutual needs and interests Create opportunities to share experiences and know-how among the member institutions with various international organizations and institutions Provide new ideas and tools relevant to agricultural and rural development polices Share and generate initiatives to further the rural agenda SWG Areas of Co-operation: Broadening the Definition of Agriculture The SWG strives to capture the richness not only of agriculture, but also of the many other sectors and areas which share common themes and can be merged together. The SWG executes its activities in the following areas: • Rural Development • Trade and Economic Development • Agriculture and Agro-industry • Environmental Protection and Sustainability • Protection and promotion of cultural heritage • Tourism and Rural Tourism • Contributing to Human Health and Education • Exchange of Statistical Data • Promoting Gender Equality and Empowerment of Women in Rural Areas Reinforcing Capacities and Building Knowledge The SWG supports its Member institutions, academic institutions, associations and organization in working together to increase their understanding and awareness about available information and tools, and indentifying gaps and in discrepancies. The objective is to engage stakeholders to work on collaborative activities (seminars, workshops and trainings) for enhancing development capacity. Such events promote exchange of experiences, increase collaborative engagement and strengthen knowledge or skill development among the involved parties in the regional development process. The capacity building activities will increase the competences of the participants. This part is quested from the SWG RRD website. http://seerural.org/about-us/ So why is Ukraine not joining? Joining and so moving step-by-step closer to EU standards jointly with its peers, friends and neighbors? Would it not be the best way to build capacity in Ukraine in this vital sector? Is there nothing to learn and improve or is there? How about Turing the potential of Ukraine in real output and prosperity with European competence and best practices jointly learning from each other and benefiting from the concrete reform experience of SEE countries and as always Moldova is already that and why is Ukraine not? It is time to join SWG RRD. 12. SEE Center for Entrepreneurship Learning European SME Policy for Ukraine and join the Regional Center for Entrepreneurship Learning http://www.seecel.hr/ Jobs, Growth, Prosperity with SME focus for Ukraine Small and medium Enterprises, SMEs are the engine of the European growth model. SMEs are the driver of innovation, fast in adopting new technologies and market and consumer demand. SMEs are committed to their region, employees and customers. Germany and Austria, especially during their reconstruction economic miracle have cultivated and focused on SMEs and SME friendly policies and entrepreneurs and their SMEs, Central European and South Eastern Europe has followed this growth model in the last 20 years very successful, now we recommend this SME growth model for Ukraine. It has worked in Central Europe and then in South Eastern Europe and will work in Eastern Europe as well. Ukraine is a major country but so is Poland and Romania and their SMEs have now grown to European dimension. This is the very idea. Allow companies to start small, support them and do not choice and pick and decide who will succeed but free them and let them grow and turn into global market leaders in sectors and niches. Not to protect SMEs and not simple subsidizing small self-employed but giving freedom for growth, freedom for innovation, freedom to adopt to technology change and digitalization and freedom from excessive and arbitrary taxation or overregulation and freedom from government intervention for friends and family close to power and state authorities. Yes SMEs need clear rules, based on European guidelines, implemented evenly and fairly for all. Central to European SME policy is European competition regulation, providing equal access to procurement and public information and avoiding nepotism, clientelism and collusion. The success of European SME policy in the new Central European EU member states has proven its relevance and capacity to initiate growth, jobs and prosperity fostering an emergent middle class or consumer, citizens and voters. And this matters for Ukraine now. Sadly, Ukraine is focusing on industrial revival. Ukraine has inherited major industrial assets, some are useful for defense, some might be capable to survive global competition under market conditions but most might not and focusing on an industrial revival means keeping people, resources, land and capital hostage of unrealistic dreams of a long gone totalitarian past. Ukraine needs European SME policy and not old fashioned industrial policy, Ukraine needs open and efficient land, labor and capital market and the freedom for entrepreneurs to combine these asset on their risk assumption and successful compete on the European and world markets with the great capacities Ukraine has and will be successful with. And again, SMEs do not mean small start up and trade outlets forever. Google and Amazon have started small and so have Hipp and Bosch. But to create such an environment SMEs need an efficient state and an economy policy based on attention for SMEs. And once SMEs can be successful in Ukraine foreign investors will notice and seize the opportunity to bring the investment capital and technology required for European level of prosperity for Ukraine. But if domestic Small and Medium Enterprises can not prosper and the reputation of Ukraine as highly corrupt state why should international investor risk their capital in Ukraine if it can be safely invested in Poland or Romania under EU conditions? To counter such consideration and stay competitive Ukraine needs to convince the world that SME can prosper and treat all investors is fair and evenhanded from SME to FDI and this will foster an capital market culture financing innovation and entrepreneurship and leading to lower interest rates as the success of this reforms in South Eastern Europe has proven. But again is competition, competition and competition – the basic principle of SME Policy meaning EU competition and anti state subsidies firmly implemented in Ukraine to avoid unfair state intervention and the oligopoly domination of markets by few major political connected bullies. And it means a tax system fair and EU compatible with low rates and fair implementation, which fosters compliance and reduces corruption by increasing use of balance sheets and formalization of the economy. Jointly with the overdue and long awaiting opening of the Ukraine land, labor and capital market for European investors this will be the signal for the international investors community that Ukraine is ready for business. As long as there are serious capital repatriation restrictions that will invest in Ukraine? Such a coordinated approach for European SME Policy in Ukraine will as well increase the positions in the international ranking of Ukraine from Transparency to Competitiveness to Doing Business which will reflect the success of Ukraine in this effort to join the positions of other European states in this rankings. We recommend as well for Ukraine to join the SEECEL the South Eastern European Center for Entrepreneurship Learning to change the culture of entrepreneurship learning in Ukraine from Schools to University to the media to foster a new public consensus on SME policy and entrepreneurs and entrepreneurship in Ukraine and leave the post Soviet mentality of state industrialism and civil service style life long employment in large companies and foster a start up and entrepreneurship culture with all its benefits and risks. The Center for Entrepreneurship learning is based in Croatia in the Ministry of Economy and promote entrepreneurship and SME policy in SEE and we are confident Ukraine would benefit form the SEE SME reform experience. http://www.seecel.hr Finally we recommend Ukraine to follow the European SME policy closely and appoint a Ukrainian SME envoy, roll out Ukrainian European SME Week and adopt a Ukrainian Small Business Act based on the SBA of the EU and streamline of Government policy on its effects for SMEs and what can be done to allow SME to grow and provide the jobs, growth and property for Ukraine to reach the prosperity Poland and Romania and many more have achieved based on European SME policy. 13. Public Administration Reform Ukraine, join RESPA – Regional School for Public Administration European Quality Civil Servants Training –essential pillar of European Accession and Anti Corruption Ukraine is making major efforts in reforms and Anti-corruption but the challenge of upgrading, training and adopting to European regulatory standards and implementing such standards along European best practices of public administration is a monumental task ahead. But Ukraine is not alone. All of Central European had to go though it during its transformation and accession and all of South Eastern Europe is currently going through it with support of the international community. And this experiences matter for Ukraine. To transform a post Communist civil service and civil servant into a modern European based on rule of law and the rule of power and working along the key principles of public service, integrity, accountability, transparency and proportionality is the vital element of a national anti corruption effort next to reform the judiciary and formalizing the economy and rationalizing the political system, the biggest challenges of all. And here the rule and law based civil service has a vital role to play and needs to be back up with skills and competence to be able to abide and implement the law along such principles and being firm, confident and secure with request from the political side and having the self confidence based on a strong civil service code and on excellent training along European bets practices. And such must be the training that civil servants act in timely and decisive manner despite the challenging framework between the public and politics both demanding significant progress with modest means and thigh deadlines with decision effecting the welfare and public good often worth significant amounts and always having to weigh in and balance different economic and political and society interest in key issues from urban planning, to industrials permits or public procurement or donor funding all with temptation attached. The challenges are a constant one and not unique to Ukraine and Ukraine is just the latest arriver in this drive for excellence in the pro European transformation region of Central, Eastern and South Eastern Europe. The 6 countries of the Western Balkans now firmly well advancing on the EU accession process with Montenegro leading the way have addressed the challenge jointly and have developed the Regional School for Public Administration in Danilovgrad in Montenegro which is as well the most advanced in transparency and EU accession possible in line for EU membership by 2024. RESPA please find the link at http://www.respaweb.eu/ and please find the core principle of RESPA with ReSPA Core objectives To contribute to the development of accountable, effective and professional PA in the Western Balkan countries in line with EU integration requirements and Good Governance principles Improved regional cooperation in PA development of ReSPA Beneficiaries based on positive competition, exchange of experience and practices, shared learning and development Enhanced and sustainable administrative and Human Resource capacities in ReSPA Beneficiaries for change and modernization of PA in line with the principles of EAS Upgraded PAR that would facilitate EU accession process of its beneficiaries Developed and available resources, information and knowledge products on Public Administration to ReSPA Beneficiaries. Are those not quite the similar requirements for the public administration reforms of Ukraine Post Maidan? Indeed this is what Ukraine need right now. A stronger independent civil service ready implements the law evenhanded and fair and open for all. Trained along European regulation and principles and working with integrity, independence and principle and able to oversee and supervise and implement budgets and procurement without temptation and with good impact for the taxpayers. Ready to use the power of the public purse and public authorities and always aware of the responsibility and consequence of state action and using it wisely and reigning in populist politician raised in a other world and time? So why is Ukraine not investing and joining RESPA and learning from the EU accession public administration reform of the countries who are now already in their 17th year post war EU accession process and some like Montenegro already in full EU accession talks having even close several chapter of EU enlargement negotiation successfully as success Ukraine have to work hard to achieve in the next decade ahead. And will never without a EU standard quality civil service as the experience of Romania and Bulgaria are what happened there with EU funds in the first years of EU membership in the civil service is still overshadowing and in a way haunting the EU enlargement debate in Germany and Austria and so first class trained Civil Services will be a decisive argument for Ukraine EU membership ambition which the author of this article strongly advocate for but which will be a challenge in current European political environment and Ukraine needs excellent argument to sell its EU membership ambitions in the capitals of the 27 member state. And a first class well-trained civil service would be such an asset to be proud of. Joining RESPA is just a small step in this direction but one with a powerful signal to Brussels that Ukraine is serious on the way to European quality public administration.

14. SEE and Environment Ukraine, join the Regional Environmental Center, REC http://www.rec.org Environmental challenges know no borders. And the reckless exploitation for industrial and military usage by the communist regimes often coupled with lack of competence and capital have left a sad heritage and many tragic scars on the landscape and nature of the Eastern half of the European continent. This was obvious from the start and so the USA and much European Government and the EU Commission established the Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe REC. The Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe (REC) is an international organization with a mission to assist in addressing environmental issues. The REC fulfils this mission by promoting cooperation among governments, non-governmental organizations, businesses and other environmental stakeholders, and by supporting the free exchange of information and public participation in environmental decision making. The United States, the European Commission and Hungary established the REC in 1990. Today, the REC is legally based on a charter with over 30 signatories. The organization relies on a network of offices and experts in Central and Eastern Europe and beyond. Its head office is located in Szentendre, Hungary. The center covers a great number of useful and key issues for address for Central and Eastern European authorities towards a modern environmental standard and quality of live attached to it http://www.rec.org/areas_of_expertise.php Somehow it is difficult to find Ukraine on the map. Maybe there are no issues like management of water resources, Sustainable mobility and Smart cities, managing natural resources, environmental law, education for sustainable Development, climate change and clean energy solution and involvement of the civil society on the agenda or Eastern Europe stops at a line along Polish and Romanian border and Ukraine is somewhere outside the scope of REC but certainly the environment challenges are about the same in Podgorica as in Odessa and in Liviv and in Cracow. So why is Ukraine not member of REC? Turkey is, Poland is and Kosovo is and it has 12 offices all over Eastern Europe and a proud history of achievement of 25 years of existence for a greener and healthier and more livable Central and Eastern Europe. So why is Ukraine not joining now that Ukraine is free from Russian authority and moving firmly and strongly to the European Union and inside the EU we have very high and demanding environmental standards which are a major obstacle for fast track enlargement and have been a major challenge for the 2004 enlargement countries but jointly with the EU major progress in water, air and quality of live and protect of environment was possible. Joining REC now and prepare now for EU standards and improve the standards in Ukraine now and so anticipate the EU accession and negotiations and help Ukrainians to live in a greener environment and live an healthier life now - why not start now and learn from the experience of the peers, friends and neighbors and future fellow EU member sates? Ukraine and Ukrainians would certainly benefit and the costs of REC Membership will be minimal in relation to the costs of cleaning up Ukraine to EU standards in all aspects from toxic waste to air and water quality to waste management and all the aspect covered by the EU environmental aquis and best to start now to make EU enlargement a bit more concrete and realistic by first joining REC.

15. Public Finance Reform Ukraine, join the Center of Excellence in Finance for South Eastern Europe https://www.cef-see.org/ Money matters and public finance is like the queen of questions in state building and capacity development of countries in transition. Ministry of Finance and Central Banks are possible the most highly ranked of all public institutions, attracting the brightest talent, the best Ministers and the most public scrutiny while committed to transparency and accountability. Sadly, they are still often firmly controlled by the political elite as they control the public purse and ultimate all public policy decision boil down to finances and setting priorities in concrete budget and public spending terms. How to do that and how to manage budgets, collect taxes and keep control of spending in a diverse and multi agency and multi decision making and multi priorities reality is one of the most highly contentious issue and well kept secrets of a few public finance experts and their political leaders, some budget experts in Parliament and their adviser and international consultants from IMF others International Financial Institution. Sadly, such power lead to many failures, temptations and issues especially in countries in transition with weak internal and external control and lack of personal integrity culture in public service and lack of public understanding what these institution should do and how. They are all new, the corporate culture is new, the code of ethic and integrity needs to be developed and to grow stronger then political, clan and family ties or financially incentives of the wrong kind. To develop such an institution with such key responsibility for the nation alone is not easy during transition and learning, benchmarking and mutual reinforcing culture of integrity and learning from more developed partners and friends in regional comparable countries was the reason behind the establishment of the Center of Excellence in Finance as a knowledge and training hub for the all region of South Eastern Europe. The Slovenian Government at the initiative of the Slovenian Ministry of Finance and in close cooperation with other ministries of finance of former Yugoslav countries and Albania established it in 2001 under the Stability Pact for South East Europe. In 2015 the CEF became an international organization after 14 very successful years as a regional institution. It is based in Bled Slovenia. The CEF focus is public finance management, tax policy and central banking and bring together leaders and expert for developing their capacity and peer learning with especially support from Slovenia and Netherlands. Its membership comprises countries from Slovenia to Turkey and all Balkans countries and Moldova. https://www.cef- see.org/constituency Currently CEF SEE has 12 member countries training their public finances and national bank staff there jointly. So why is Ukraine not member? Possible during the time of the kleptocracts such kind of transparency, accountability, joint training leading to competent and confident civil service in public finance was not high on the agenda. Since the pro European revolution of dignity and the Russian aggression there were other priorities and now as transparency and anti-corruption and competence in civil service and budget accountability and respect for tax payer money is the driving principle of the new pro European government firmly committed to European accession Ukraine is still not member. Why? Certainly the international support can be mobilized or the budget found in a 40 Billon $ budget of the Ukrainian government. Of course, Ukraine is special and what can you learn from EU countries like Croatia, Bulgaria, Slovenia and Romania or from EU candidates in concrete EU accession talks like Montenegro and Serbia working daily with IPA and EU accession financial instruments in the case of Ukraine when you really want to join the EU with exactly the same pre accession financial instruments? And as we have seen in all accession processes, this is a challenge for the civil servants from Baltic’s to Bulgaria and Albania to Romania. Luckily, the capacities of Ukraine are so advanced that joining such regional networks is maybe not necessary? Because Ukraine is moving on a special highway direct to Brussels without having to deal with poor southern relatives of small periphery nations still in the need of training and capacity development? Note that some of the CEF SEE members are already EU member state having a vote in the European Council and sending MEP to European Parliament and having a Commissioner in Brussels and so deciding in very concrete terms about Ukraine access to the EU which is sadly still not secured. So making friends in Slovenia, Croatia, Bulgaria, Romania and as well in the new SEE countries in firm and confirmed and secure EU accession preparation process and their public finance and national bank leaders, expert and staff could be useful and so a good idea for Ukraine? Given that these will be the same people decisive about Ukraine and about Ukraine access to pre Accession funds and EU accession tool. It might be a useful idea for Ukraine if Ukraine is seriously considering EU future and all its multi Billion per year support under pre and post accession regional and social and agricultural and infrastructure public finance support. How many billions of Europe does Poland or Romania receive under these 4 budget programs of the EU per year? Maybe good to go to Bled and contribute, network, learn and improve and turn Ukraine into a real EU accession countries with the help of the friends from South Eastern Europe who know your struggle, have been through war and reconstruction challenges and stand with you. Stand with them as well and join CEF. 16. Anticorruption and SEE Include Ukraine in the Regional Anti Corruption Initiative Sustainable and Institutional Cooperation of Anti Corruption Agencies of Balkans and Ukraine within RAI www.rai-see.org By Erhard Busek, Vienna and Gunther Fehlinger, Kyiv Fighting Corruption is the uniting theme of Government and International Community from Tirana to Kyiv and from Sofia to Belgrade. After the 2014 Revolution of Dignity Ukraine is now intensively catching up with the support of the European Union and the US to reduce corruption. With the introduction of online transparent procurement the international awarded ProZorro system Ukraine has achieved a key milestone with lasting impact. But serious efforts remain to be undertaken in the political and judicial system. The countries of South Eastern Europe have a similar challenge since the end of the Balkans wars and some have achieved remarkable success. Part of the success of the regional exchange of best practices and a kind of positive peer presses in the Regional Anti Corruption Initiative born back in the days of the Stability Pact and uniting 9 countries of South Eastern Europe including Moldova in their effort to exchange and benchmark effective tools and measure with impact in still waging battle against corruption, It is a complicated phenomenon and there is no quick fix. Political will and leadership matters but do does constant public scrutiny and civil courage of civil servants and civil society but so does the mutual learning what work where and why in a sustainable, institutional and professional region sector reform international institution like RAI and we recommend Ukraine to join this effort and contribute with Ukraine perspective to the SEE reform process and learn from the Balkans and jointly convince Europe that this struggle for institution transparency and accountability and against human temptation is now and for good on the agenda and improving from now every day from the Adriatic to the Black Sea. Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia even if now member of EU decided to stay in RAI to further move their anti corruption effort forwards and such a great pool of reform experiences and expert on all key topics from legislative and reform of justice system would be a great network for Ukraine now it is decisive phase of reforming the justice sector and convincing the world it is serious with this post Maidan internal clean up process. Ukraine had the positive experience of joining the Energy Union for SEE before Maidan and it provided a excellent platform for fast track reforms once Ukraine was ready and the world is positive surprised how fast Ukraine managed the reforms of the energy sector today internationally acknowledge as the prime success sector of new post Maidan Ukraine. Similar success is possible with a combination of Ukrainian political leadership, Ukrainian and international competence and successfully learning and contributing to the Anti Corruption debate in South Eastern Europe jointly with the other recent EU members and EU candidates and potential candidate from South Eastern Europe. Ukraine is today at rank 131 of the Corruption Perception Index of Transparency International, The Republic of Kosovo at 95 and Macedonia at 90 as the least transparent of the Balkans 6 non EU countries already considerable better positioned than Ukraine today and so allow us to suggest that joining RAI and adopting similar reform approaches like proven successful in the Balkans will have significant impact for Ukraine as well. http://euromaidanpress.com/2017/10/03/for-sustainable-effect- ukraine-should-join-the-regional-anti-corruption-initiative 17. Berlin Dialogue Include Ukraine in Berlin Process for the Balkans...and the Black Sea Gunther Fehlinger, Kyiv In June 2014 the German Chancellor showed clear leadership to creating what become known as the Berlin Process for the Balkans to bring leaders of the Balkan countries together to reduce insecurity in the region as a strategic answer to the Russian aggression against Ukraine and Anti-European efforts by the Russian Federation in some Balkan states. A vital pillar and its main success is the European Infrastructure Interconnectivity agenda for the Balkans. This systematic coordination effort brings EU leaders concerned and caring for the Balkans and all 6 Balkan countries leaders regular together to coordinate and cooperate in all infrastructure aspects like airspace to railways to motorway to digital infrastructure and so to speed up regional and European integration and economic conditions all South Eastern Europe inside or outside the EU. The excellent preparations of the Stability Pact successor sector reform organization like Transport Observatory, SEETO in Belgrade and the Energy Community for SEE based in Vienna got so the political backing and top level political attention and coordination to move issues ahead in this new format. Progress on key projects could be faster but overall the Berlin process was and is a major breakthrough for the Balkans EU integration. Now it is time to extend the process and include Ukraine to allow the benefits of this EU Infrastructure Interconnectivity Agenda to support the reform process of Ukraine and interconnect Ukraine economy as close as possible with Central and South Eastern Europe to the benefit of all. Now that all preparation, analytic and coordination efforts for the Western Balkans are ready and the projects are now in pipeline for financing and implementing the capacities of the European infrastructure planners have to be redirected to Ukraine, Moldova and the pro European Caucasus countries to enhance the European efforts to connect and coordinate with the Chinese One Belt One Road mechanism and project implementation potential. The Chinese offer Europe a new form of strategic partnership with major new infrastructure links bypassing Russia on the south and Iran on the north and leading to major new prosperity levels on both sides of the Eurasian continent and all countries in-between. Ukraine is here a vital transit but as well a key agricultural and manufacturing location which needs to be included and connected in all aspects. Using same standards and methods of infrastructure connectivity coordination cross borders and including soft and hard infrastructure like customs and tax system to motorways and railways standards and including energy and telecom and digital infrastructure is essential to raise living standards across the region by first class infrastructure. What worked in and for the Balkans will now work for Ukraine and possible later for Moldova and the pro European Caucasus countries. Why this matters? With the Chinese doing a major effort and Turkey and the Middle East in Chaos the new central transit route via the Black Sea is now key to the success for the region and Ukraine with its key harbors Odessa, Mykolaev and Kherson provides the key link for the new silk road increasing interconnectivity and trade and within prosperity for all countries along the new infrastructure links. Separating the Black Sea from the Balkans only makes infrastructure planning more costly and confusing. The key light tower projects should be the East West Highway from Durres and Bar at the Adriatic, key NATO harbors via Kosovo and Macedonia to Sofia and the Black Sea northwards towards Odessa, Kherson and until Mariupol and combining the industrial and agricultural production capacity of the Northern Black Sea littoral with the Balkans and the access to Thessaloniki and the European and Middle East market. This should be combined with combined EU, US and Chinese major investments in the port infrastructure in Odessa, Mykolaeva and Kherson and a upgrading along European standards of the railways from Bar to Mariupol. With Ukraine joining CEFTA hopefully already in 2018 this will be a major signal for the world that the Balkans and the Black Sea region have a united future in the European Union and that we are now preparing the soft and hard infrastructure for that future. Albania, Kosovo and Montenegro are already building in most dynamic manner their highways eastwards and jointly with European coordination and standards and Chinese funding the progress of such efforts can achieve major project with significant impact in the coming years. Now the next step if to include Ukraine into the Berlin Process for the Balkans and the Black Sea. The 18 is included in the Inspire Direction for European Geospatial Data in the WB Dialogue Ukraine should participate.

Part 3 Major Economic Policy Reform Recommendations from SEE for Ukraine – what worked in SEE – will work in Ukraine 1. Tax Reform 10% It is time for 10% Flat Tax for Ukraine in 2018 Gunther Fehlinger, Kyiv The Ukrainian Government has presented a new budget for 2018 and the general directions of macroeconomic stability and transparency have to be applauded. Ukraine has managed an impressive turn around since the revolution of Dignity. Still the budget focused on public investment and does not focus on growth of the private sector by lowering tax rates. Sadly the authorities claim tax rates do not matter and so Ukrainian business will continue to pay 18% of corporation tax and so do individuals. An 18% flat tax is in principal an excellent benchmark and was the right level for the remarkable success of the flat tax reform movement 15 years ago in Central Europe. But is such a level still competitive enough in 2018 for a country like Ukraine? Most of the more aggressive reforming countries of the Balkans and Central Asia went for 10% to free their business and offer a new state business consensus for formalization, which works both for higher revenues, a more transparent way of business and for attracting investment from Montenegro to Bulgaria. President Trump is now proposing 20% corporation tax rate for the most advanced economy, the USA. And tax rates have come down in most of the EU. Ukraine is now in 2016 at 2,200 % GDP per capita and still at war with the Russian aggressor and needs to attract significant amount of FDI and will 18% be the flag light to attract the investment world under the current circumstances? Does 18% reflect the competiveness difference with Central Europe already save and firmly inside the EU and Hungary now at 9% of flat tax just next door? Some of the Balkans, Central Asia and Caucasian reform countries opted for 10% with excellent success in FDI and growth and these are the twin factor, which will make or break Ukraine westward drive after 2014. FDI and Growth and both leading to significant higher levels of prosperity, purchasing power and budget revenues to build citizens and consumer confidence and allow for all necessary spending priorities from defense and infrastructure to grow. Only higher growth can ensure that and the current 3% will not be enough for that and higher growth depends on significant lower and competitive tax rates. True there is opposition to that from the IMF, OECD and EU mainly due the ongoing battle against tax competition mainly led by high tax high welfare spending Western European Governments but this shall not be the reason why Ukraine stays at 18% in this drive for growth. Cleary as well the Central European nations now save in the EU and some in the Euro zone watch a highly competitive Ukraine with a now significant devalued currency and a strong manufacturing basis with full access to the EU Internal market with the DCFTA in place with some concern and even more so if Ukraine choice to drop its tax rate from Polish and Slovak levels to Bulgarian and Montenegro levels and start to attract the same investments that Slovak Republic and Poland received in the early 2000 and fueled their miracle. But given that similar EU transfers like EU Central European receive since 2004 are still minimum 2 decades away it is vital for Ukraine to be competitive and target the Central European industrial automotive basis to relocate eastwards to ensure employment and growth and revenues for Ukraine now and not in 2 decades. During the presentation of the 2018 Prime Minister Volodymyr Groisman state clearly that the current 3% growth is not enough and we urge him to reduce taxes as the proven and successful tool to stimulate growth, increase revenues and turn the remarkable Ukrainian recovery and reform process into a similar economic miracle like Poland and the Slovak Republic have achieved in last 2 decades. But it is 2017 and to repeat such a success now the optimal tax rate for Ukraine is 10%.

2. Euro Introduction

Time for the Ukrainian Euro – fast, firm, unilateral

Towards fast track, unilateral Euro introduction in Ukraine to accelerate economic reform, provide financial and investment stability and make EU accession irreversible

Gunther Fehlinger, Chairman of ETR

Montenegro is the role model for Ukraine unilateral Euro introduction. NATO Member Montenegro early and unilateral Euro introduction was the basis for a unique success story. Just independent since 2006, Montenegro celebrates its 11th anniversary of statehood in 2017 as NATO member and EU Candidate Country with major progress in EU accession and scheduled for 2024 EU Membership and attracting billions of Euros in FDI, a amazing feast for a small young country. Success has many reasons but one factor is often not mentioned prominently enough - currency stability, Montenegro uses the Euro as they decided not to use a own currency during their turbulent birth as nation and independent state but opted for the Euro as sole currency. It turned out to be a major success.

It lead to investment security, currency stability obviously and low inflation, did not allow easy - for the political elite - and - painful for the people - devaluation to avoid reforms of the sector markets and did take currency manipulation, inflation or devaluation out of the policy mix available to the political elite. It was painful in the start to gain competitiveness but has provided Montenegro with the macroeconomic stability allowing fast track EU accession, growth and turning that small nation into a international magnet for foreign investment.

Why not repeat that success in Ukraine?

The Montenegro success case of unilateral Euro introduction could be repeated by Ukraine now. After all Ukraine and Ukrainian consumers has lived through in terms of currency manipulation, devaluation and inflation and high interest rates would a stable, secure currency not be the best tool for economic policy? And signal to domestic and international investors that it is time for investing in Ukraine and your investment will be secure!

The Montenegro model of unilateral usage of Euro as sole national currency does not mean joining the Euro zone. That is far away for Ukraine, which has to first convince the EU Member state of its EU future and than fulfill accession criteria and then the Maastricht criteria for that and given the optimistic scenario that would be possible somewhere in the 2040 at its earliest possible the 2050ies. That is a long time. And have having lost 2 decade in a roller coaster ride between stop and go on the reform agenda and the same roller coaster of exchange rate why to loose another 2 or 3 decade if there is a better option?

And there is - as Montenegro and as well Kosovo have shown. It is perfectly possible to exchange its own currency with the Euro is the political elite is ready to give up the power of using inflation to finance its budget requirements and the power of devaluation to avoid structural reforms and the power to manipulate the financial sector and all the benefits for the decision makers attached to such powers. That is the ultimate issue. For the people such a transition is not painful especially if it freezes the current Euro Hrivna exchange rate ensuring a very competitive relation with the Euro for Ukrainian manufacturing and exports and having absorbed the shock of devaluation already and priced that into Ukrainian wage price system already during the last 3 years.

At least it is not more painful that today’s reality and it is for a sure a stable investment and growth platform on which consumer can safely invest again in banking and property sector, safely take credit and safely investing in the Ukrainian economy with the stable framework of the pan European currency. Which - contrary to Russian Anti European propaganda - sadly dominating the debate in Ukraine still on European issues- is strong, stable and successful and please all who doubt that visit the Euro zone yourself and see the amazing 20 times differential with Ukrainian living standards today.

And to quote President George Bush; do not mis-underestimate the strong, firm and powerful commitment of the key European states and economies and elite to the European political and economic unification and solidarity and its central tool - the Euro. As painful and expensive as it was and still is, Greece was kept in the Euro and will be kept and the sad experience of the 2011 currency and budget crisis resulting from the panic wave of hyper spending as the wrong answer to the 2008 global economic shock has been the puberty kind of crisis of a young currency on the global stage and Europe has build all the institution which were political not possible at the start of the Euro but are necessary to manage it like a powerful European Central Bank as lender or last resort, backing the currency during a crisis, a common stability mechanism like the IMF now with the ESM and a united financial market now in the making with its key tool the banking union. Somehow this reality has not arrived in post Euromaidan Ukraine which is still widely using the US dollar as reserve currency and for calculating major consumer items like cars and property and the Euro seem a distant reality good for tourism and travel as only the Baltic’s and the Slovak Republic use the Euro from Ukraine neighbors. Only is not meant negative, because look at that historic achievement from these 4 neighbors and who would have considered that possible just at start of the Euro in 2000 that Slovakia which was lagging being and the Baltic’s who have been in Soviet Union with Ukraine are able to introduce the Euro by their own achievement and be part of the Euro zone and now being role models and the strongest supporters of Ukraine in the case of the Baltic from their position inside the EU, NATO and the Euro.

Where is the beauty of it? How does it works and is it worth the risks and costs attached?

It is worth it and pays off. It makes investment save. Brings down risk, interest rates and inflation, increases FDI and SME investment safety, supports the banking system integration in EU financial market and makes EU integration irreversible. And the principle is the same like with Visa liberalization. Start unilateral with openness and adopt EU policies and so gradually build trust and open the road to Europe and build your case with the EU member states elite and electorate that Ukraine is serious omitted for EU membership.

Please, make no mistake. Europe does not need Ukraine. Most European leaders and electorates prefer peace with Russia and Ukrainian neutrality is a easy price to pay and the EU is covering a lot of people and land already and there is not need, interest and urge of the EU to include Ukraine right now and not in the foreseeable future, especially given the enormous costs of bringing the same EU cohesion policies and support instruments - and it will be the same - to Ukraine that the EU is committing to its eastern and southern members. Ukraine membership will be a multi billion per year budget to be financed by ever fewer net payers and the appetite of European taxpayers is limited.

But it is Ukraine who has declared it its strategic priority and in-between the EU and an aggressive assertive Russian Federation there is in reality no other option. Either freedom inside the EU based on member state equality and European law or domination by big brother Moscow like in most time in the past.

Ukraine strategists have to consider this and consider what steps Ukraine can make on its westwards integration and make that direction clear, transparent, well understood, easy to communicate and irreversible. And there is no more powerful tool than unilateral introducing the European currency in Ukraine. And for such a move you do not need full Euro zone approval or EU consent. It is enough to have one National Bank of the EU providing the quantity of Euros in physical currency required and the political will to do it here in Kyiv and as now there are a lot of experts in the Baltic’s and in other Euro zone countries that recently have changed to the Europe so call them in from the National Bank of Lithuania or Estonia and the new National Bank of Ukraine and the IT capacity and the new reformed international banking sector of Ukraine will be perfectly capable to implement the transfer to the Euro.

Obviously there will be domestic and international opposition maybe even from IMF and EU but if Montenegro and Kosovo were allowed by not Ukraine? There was war there and here is war now. And special circumstances require leadership. Waiting for approval will certainly result in a no because who in Brussels or Washington carries the ultimate responsible for Ukraine and Ukrainians? Nobody, but the Ukrainian political elite carries that and setting the countries now after the political pro European revolution on a firm European economic integration course firmly based on the success of the DCFTA but in a way forcing the issue with the only major tool Ukraine can do without full European consent it is a courageous step - requiring some chutzpa but it is perfectly doable and has been done in the past and will be very positive for Ukraine and possible the only way forwards in terms of fast tracking EU future of Ukraine.

It would help as well the Euro zone to show the world we are shaping the reality and making clear the European future of all area between current EU, the Russian Federation and Turkey. DCFTA with EAP countries was first, Visa Free Travel was second, full political enlargement seems a challenge so let us start with Euro introduction first in Ukraine that really wants to join the EU and NATO so join the Euro first and possible in other pro European enlargement countries of SEE and EAP.

Having a super competitive and stable and trustworthy Euro backed and Euro issued Ukraine close would make a difference for Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary as well as Romania and Bulgaria and the Balkans as well and Ukraine is certainly super competitive after these mega devaluations and with the Euro as currency- ending the power of politicians to devaluate and inflate the currency and so keeping investment at current low levels and enforcing the need to finally implement structural reforms in land, labor and capital market and no longer take the easy road with devaluations. A currency is as well not a symbol of national pride or patriotism but a tool for saving, trading investing and keeping value and all this the Hrinvna was and is not very successful for SMEs and people. And SME and people need a save base to invest and prosper and develop your nation beyond towards EU levels of prosperity and great prosperity in Ukraine is the best way to market and endear you to European electorates as potential EU candidate.

For the Eurozone taxpayer that is the much cheaper option as any future Euro invested in Ukraine will be safe and the whole support to Ukraine will be more effecting and firmly based on the Euro. Time to get going then.

Ukraine is reforming in many sectors from education to health to defense to police but has not reformed labor, capital nor land market and is not growing in amazing speed but more like a mature Western European economy which is much too slow for a transition economy after a significant devolution. Some more drastic measures are needed as time is ticking and the westwards integration of Ukraine failed already twice in the 1990ies and 2000ies and the opponents of an EU future of Ukraine inside the EU and in the Russian Federation are as well highly capable to set agendas, shape events and have impact so the current complacency in being satisfied to reform faster than even relative to Ukrainian modest reform history is worrying and needs to stop. Ukraine has always been more developed and richer that the Balkans but that was the reason for the fast track and more aggressive reform drive in the Balkans in last decade and the poorest Balkan country Kosovo which has the Euro as well as sole currency on unilateral basis is now 80% richer than Ukraine and Montenegro is close to 3 times richer per capita GDP in 2016 terms with 6.700 $ compared to Ukraine with 2.185$ GDP per capita. A sad result for country with such rich potential and clever people which could live much better with the Euro as stable fundament for investment and trade and live in Ukraine.

3.European Kataster for Ukraine It is time for a European Kataster for Ukraine Gunther Fehlinger, Kyiv Ukraine is proud about its land register and true, Ukraine ranks a remarkable 63 in registering property in the World Bank doing business 2016 and will hopefully leap ahead in the 2017 ranking to be published soon. As well major efforts are on the way in the area of Geospatial infrastructure, which need to be applauded. As well, it is possible to register mortgages and there is concrete progress in building administration and simplification in construction permitting process. But there is certain complacency in Ukraine, being dizzy with the speed of reform currently, indeed impressive - compared to the 2 decades lost in transition. Compared to the systemic efforts in improving all land related issues in South Eastern Europe, progress in Ukraine is relative modest and it is time to change that and it is time for a European Kataster. And tit is time to be more ambitious and catch up with the progress of the EU Candidate Countries of South Eastern Europe. Clearly, there are different models of Kataster in the European Union and we would like to focus on the Bavarian and Austrian system, which have been the role models for the South Eastern European Kataster reform project jointly with some key inputs in technology and taxation from the northern European countries especially Sweden and Norway. Each country in transition has to pick and choice its on specific model, but we would like to outline that for Ukraine given its major resources is land, a European Kataster system, whichever direction to follow would have major advantages and it is time to be more systematic, ambitious and provide the political attention and leadership to implement it. Some progress has been achieved but the results of openness can in no way be satisfactorily compared to the success of e.g.: Prozorro in public procurement Ukraine is lacking behind in land transparency https://index.okfn.org/dataset/land/ and Ukraine can do better and Ukrainians have deserved better. The Macedonian model shows that within a 4 years strategic effort a transition country can move from a medium post socialist compromise to global top class leadership position in property registration, transparency and accountability in the Katster as a firm fundament for the rule of law, the debt system, clearing up the construction and land market and being a back bone for economic growth and the financial system. It is time for Ukraine to do the same and in the next 4 years the effects will have a lasting and significant impact on Ukraine rule of law, anti-corruption effort and economic growth. A European Kataster for Ukraine will first of all provide a solid basis for revenues for taxation for local and regional government. We should not forget this is how Kataster in Europe started. Land and property taxation might not be popular but own source revenues for local government are decisive for better public service and local development and reasonable taxation is as well a proven tool to improve input allocation and move taxation from income to assets always with a clear eye on the social system and taxing wealth and major asset holders and punishing leaving property and land underused and idle and so fostering productive land use by both public and private land owners. The European Kataster was born as the twin of the Courts meaning that the courts have to have direct and clear access to the Kataster meaning the main assets register of the nation and to be able to effectively implement its decision against the immovable asset register. To be clear what is meant. With all respect to human rights once a decision of the court is reached it has to be implemented and if assets of criminals, corrupted officials and tax evaders or insolvency need to be seized they really need to be seized and not evaporate and convicted criminals shall not enjoy the spoils of booty in whatever name assets are hidden. A effective European Kataster is the vital back bone of the rule of law as most crime is about enrichment mostly resulting in assets and only if a transparent register and twining it in concrete terms with the court and effective modern European rule of Law system with all adequate human right protections can be established than Ukraine can move forwards. The same logical applies to fighting money laundering or accessing the assets of a past kleptocracy. With a European Kataster twinned with the Courts in a working well-structured rule of law partnership this will never work. What is required is full online transparency of who owns what in Ukraine. Look at the Macedonian Kataster as the best practices in ownership transparency please find the link http://ossp.katastar.gov.mk/OSSP/ Here you can access each and every single land plot and flat or house or building in the Republic of Macedonia and see who is registered owner. Some claim that goes to far but in a transition economy plagued with corruption transparency like that is the only way to clean up the ownership situation and reduce corruption by making it hard to hide assets. But not only big time corruption or money laundering can be tackled better with a European Kataster but as well the formalization of the economy can be supported by combining a transparent Katatser with European standards for property taxation especially with VAT for new sold property and thereby leading the whole construction sector gradually from the grey to the formalized economy. This together with registering rental revenues via the Kataster to the tax offices and reducing tax rates for rental revenues to 10% tax best directly charged by the municipally tax office and not being part of the national income tax system but part of the municipally property tax income under decentralized powers led to further formalization and revenue registration effects positive for the municipal budget and justified in taxpayer terms and if implemented well leading to using bank transfer for rental payment and further positive formalization effects for the economy and the financial sector. The principle should be the less cash transaction the less corruption in a society and the property sector from rent to construction is a very cash based sector and changing this is a key element of European Kataster reform and European economic and financial reform approach. Using good science of surveying and modern technology a European Kataster can help as well to avoiding property conflict but European accuracy in land data and showing a clear rule of law route towards resolving property conflicts often the source of violence and confrontation between neighbors and land owners. What is required if a focus on European standards in surveying and the use of the latest technology to develop a united and transparent Geoportal for Ukraine combining latest geospatial technology and Geodesy with the excellent professionalism of Ukrainian Geodetic and IT professions. Such a geoportal, a united one, feeding all data collected by state authorities managing land and assets into such a transparent geoportal is a amazing tool for the economic actors, consumers, civil society actors, IT community and citizens to build and develop Ukraine into a more open society and economy. And the EU has done great efforts to foster such geportals in the SEE countries under the EU Inspire Directive and it is great Ukraine inspires to roll out Inspire as well. Allow us to recommend that Ukraine aspires to adapt fully to European Inspire Directive and join the SEE reform countries regional network meeting. http://inspire-geoportal.ec.europa.eu/ for the European level National Spatial Data Infrastructure, NSDI process and the conclusion of the last regional meeting please find at http://www.katastar.gov.mk/en/News.aspx?Id=1625 Such regional meetings are a great pool for peer learning and benchmarking success with reality and key experts performing similar task in similar transition countries. Why is Ukraine not participating? A European Kataster is as well a major tool for economic development. It provides security for domestic and for international investors always careful with sinking funds into insecurity and given the sad 123rd rank in the Global Property rights index of Ukraine in 2017 maybe it is not a surprise that the numbers of incoming FDI are surprisingly low for a country of seize and opportunities like Ukraine and maybe time to tackle that? https://internationalpropertyrightsindex.org/country/ukraine All investments requires some form of land access and so this matters for SME looking for retails outlets or production facilities to industrial assets to agriculture investors to energy producers and to consumer financing residential property with mortgages. All have more trust and invest more if there is a reliable property rights system backed by a European Kataster system and strong courts investors have confidence in. And this matters. A European Kataster backed mortgage market for private consumers is a major growth potential for any transition economy if politics can facilitate trust and institutional cooperation between Kataster, Courts, banking system the National Bank and the urban planning authorities and the construction industry and once that dynamic circle upwards works, it lifts a whole economy up. But to get it working and lift the mortgage market, banks have to trust the Kataster and the courts to ensure their loans are backed up and given the Macedonian property finance record where consumers can finance now for 5% mortgages in Macedonia do Ukrainian consumer not prefer such levels of interest rates for their mortgages like in Macedonia? What an achievement for a small Balkan country with rocket high interests still only a decade ago. High interest rates for low risk property backed mortgages are like a high fever temperature for a Kataster and financial system and blaming each other does not help as the property system and the financial system of an economy are like brother and sister. One cannot work without the other. A European Kataster matters as well for SME access to finance and their opportunity to move up the property and economic ladder from the coffee owner buying his outlet store and so from a non-asset client upgrading his status to an asset backed loan client and so moving up and being able to access more credit a lower rates. And it is true for the consumer moving up the property and credit worthy ladder and so the economy can move upwards. And in an upwards-moving economy with such a European Katatser more and more FDI will be invested and the economy grows faster and growth attracts more investment. True for FDI and true for large industrial investment or energy projects who are major land users as are infrastructure projects and so decent medium term national and regional land and infrastructure planning is as well facilitated with a European Kataster and a EU style full Government backed Geoportal. And a European kataster is as well a first class tool to support agriculture planning and controlling agriculture subsidies and potential future EU support in regional and agricultural support mechanism. Without it will be major issues to develop the full potential of Ukrainian agriculture. Does not matter what the land use, agriculture, natural reserve or residential or industrial construction or infrastructure transparent planning backed by European Kataster and access for the public via the Geoportal makes all such decision clearer and better and allows all actors to plan as well. Where will road be built or what is within the building permit allowed and what not? This matters for all investors and landowners. And in any transition economy the construction sector is a major driver of growth and sadly of corruption. And here a European kataster matters. It provides the construction industry with transparency land access and in Macedonia the auctioning of urban construction land has been a vital tool to reduce corruption. And so has the biggest success up to now the e-permitting process or the digital construction permits recently introduced based on Macedonian success model in most Balkan state and led to major reduction of corruption and increase in the doing business ranking from Albania to Macedonia to Serbia. In this issue Ukraine is still at 140 while Macedonia is at 11 and Albania at 106 - not perfect - but it was at 186 among the last in the world in 2016 so has improved by 80 positions in a single year because of e- permitting. As similar progress for Ukraine with the support of the Macedonian e-permitting would be a good result for the construction industry, consumer and a major progress on the Anti-Corruption agenda for Ukraine. The Macedonian Association of Municipalities has developed this system and please find their website below www.zels.org.mk and https://www.gradezna- dozvola.mk/ It is great that the Ukrainian Association of Small Towns is already observer member of NALAS the South Eastern Association of Municipalities http://www.nalas.eu/Members but much effort of peer learning needs to undertaking in Ukraine to follow the success of the Balkan municipalities in handling property better and this is ultimately one of the vital tasks of Municipalities. In such a peer learning group Ukraine could as well develop its residential Energy Efficiency policy which is the sector of the energy policy still heavily lacking behind the agreed upon implementation plans with Ukraine and the Energy Community and would be a vital pillar of increased energy independence from Russia so decisive for Ukraine future and westwards integration. Some SEE municipalities have already made great effort two follow European energy efficiency guidelines for buildings https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/energy-efficiency/buildings and sadly Ukraine is lacking behind in this vital sector. https://www.energy- community.org/implementation/Ukraine/EE.html We advocate that a strategic effort of a European Katatser with an obligatory Energy Passport for each building in Ukraine over the next decade and each energy passport attached online to the property register in a systematic manner and as part of the energy passport a road map for improving the energy efficiency of all buildings in Ukraine and a gradually improvement plan would lead to major savings for consumer and the energy balance of Ukraine and be a driver of local and national economic revival. Certainly this leads as well to the issues of regulating and developing the social housing sector, regulating some aspects of the rental market and the rights of contracting parties and how to subsidizes low income groups in access to housing in dignity within the budgetary possibility and this obviously a major issue in Ukraine with one of the largest population relocation following the Russian aggression in Donbas and Crimea. Here a European Kataster system with clarity of resources, well organized urban planning with e permitting and the attached possibilities is as well the right infrastructure to tackle this enormous challenges Ukraine faces. But the provision of new residential building both from the commercial side of social housing offered by social housing association or municipalities can be facilitated much easier with a European standards process with e-permitting and transparent urban land market and European style urban planning. The European Kataster matters a lot for municipalities obviously in managing urban construction land better and construction permits still the major driver of corruption the local level in all European transition countries but as well have seen progress is possible. But it matters as well for participatory urban planning and transparency on what can be building where matter for investment and landowners and citizens. As well it matters for public services from waste collection to water connection to waste water canalization construction costs to postal services and Internet access and working address system to the collection of property tax and property tax related service fees. As discussed in the property tax part what is essential is to understand that the European kataster is a property and asset register meaning it has an asset and liability side. The asset is clear registered and the liability from big items like bank loans for mortgage backed purchases to the outstanding taxes, house administration fees to the property related feed for public services like waste collection to canal connection fees and others.

As well the European Kataster is part of the full court backed debt and obligation system meaning that if you do not pay your debts to state or private side they can get a court order attached to your liability side of your Kataster and your asset might be auctioned off to pay of your liability or kept at the property for future sales revenue to be deducted from the sale price or inheritance cases. This is never popular but a essential pillar of the working market economy that debts have to be settled and property owners are not per see a social assistance beneficiary class but they are assets holders with rights and obligations and one essential is paying your taxes, debts and public services. So there can be no such thing as unpaid property tax as your bills pile up in your asset register and in justified social cases payments can be fine tuned or stretched over long periods but not written off and in most cases all payments will be recovered over time. This allows canalization and legalization process to be added to asset register and allows as well to full collection of utility fees. Again allowing for decent essential public services - part of an improving living standards in urban and rural area requires cost reflective prices and full collection and payment of invoice for public service backed by a European Kataster As well this is true for insurances for property related risks fire, floods or similar disasters. Ultimately, each and every property in Ukraine should be covered by a fire and natural disaster insurance, as should be agriculture and residential property be covered in a national wide effort to develop the insurance industry backed by a European Kataster and improve the risk protection and the financial market of Ukraine in European manner. A working European Kataster with a working property price evaluation is not just vital for property taxation but as well for expropriations for public or other large scale infrastructure projects, never popular but necessary and as well for the vexed issue of restitution with after a century of arbitrary intervention in the property rights system is still a major issues in Ukraine. But Ukraine has now the experience from Bulgaria to Estonia and Albania to Romania to study and decide but a working European Kataster with a detailed ownership history of each property is the basis of any such process in the future. Macedonia went back to the 1912 data from the Ottoman Kataster in Istanbul to work its property rights history out over the last century and it might take a century again but works much better with such a European Kataster. It is never to late to start a new European culture of human and property rights and yes if it mean going back to the pre - 1917 property rights data bases and at least open the way to some form of compensation if not in kind or financial than as part of starting a new culture of respect for property right by at least making the effort and declaring past crimes against private property as exactly what it was - crimes again basic human and property rights. And clearly commit the Ukrainian state and public against all such abuses in the future. Obviously Ukraine which still has in place possible the biggest property rights abuse in Europe - outside the occupied Donbas and Crimea - the sad Moratorium for sale of agricultural land is not ready for such a step right now. Given what sad excuses are used to justify such unjustifiable injustice. Arguing with the saddest of all excuses claiming to protect property owners from their decision of deciding on their property holding, leasing or selling and basically forbidden sales of the assets for millions of Ukrainians – obviously Ukraine is still hostage of past Marxist concepts of collective ownership of land and interdiction of private property but hopes are that Ukraine will move soon to Europeans standards of property rights and leave the Soviet legacy as well in this aspect. All Lenin momentums are gone and now this moratorium has to go as well. And so allowing for a new culture of respect for private property and the full state power to protect private property and that is what a European Katastr means in reality the full authority of the state, the police, courts and as well the state budget guaranteeing your property as long as you pay your taxes and obligations. If somebody challenges your property rights the full public and state authority is backing you and you can sleep save at night. Your property, your saving petrified in stone and rock is save and services back by a European Kataster strong, stable and secure like a rock. Concluding, Ukraine has a working Kataster and but a European Kataster like Macedonia is still far away. To convince the European Union Member States that Ukraine is ready this will be not part of the negotiations but has to be fixed before accession can start at all because the Kataster is the vital backbone and fundament of the state, public administration, economy, financial system, courts and rule of law. Ukraine has show with a working European Kataster and working on European quality and standards that it is serious to ensure European level of law enforcement and investment security required to join the European Union. And it is time to be more ambitious and time for a European Kataster. A European Kataster is not easy to build and foster. It takes strong political leadership and focus. The Kataster Agency has to work closely with the Courts, the State Data Center, the Tax Agency and the National Bank, State Data Center and the Ministry for Agriculture and Infrastructure, Regional Development and Water Agency and so many others have to work together as have all the property sector service providers like the notary, property agents, property evaluators, Geodets and surveyors, the IT community and the banking and insurance sector. But jointly with the donor community firmly based on European regulation major progress can be achieved and a European Kataster fully transparent and online based in a Ukraine State Geoportal will be the vital backbone for a European Ukraine delivering first class public service, constituting the infrastructure for the struggle against corruption and being the ladder on with the Ukrainian entrepreneurs and consumers can develop their prosperity and save and invest in the future of the Ukraine economy as part of the European internal Market and delivering unprecedented levels of property for Ukrainians in the coming decades. Ukraine is today with Moldova the poorest country in Europe and it is for growth – backed and facilitated by a European Kataster for Ukraine.

4.Open Land, Labor and Capital Market for Ukraine like in SEE European Ukraine, Open the Capital, Labor and Land Market Time to get serious with reforming labor, capital and land markets in Ukraine Ukraine is reforming since the pro European Revolution of Dignity in 2014 in many sectors from health to education to pension and this matters, and needs to be applauded and recognized. But in the central economic reform there is only modest progress and in the principal input market of labor, capital and land there was almost no progress since Ukraine started its 3rd westward integration drive since independence. Why no progress in theses central sectors happened might be only speculated about. Urgent priorities from defense to pensions, from identity and state building overruled a strategic reform effort of the economic factors and possible a bit of vested interests of oligarchic corporate interest combined with the sad legacy of Marxism in the brainwashed heads of political elite and voting public now in the sad 100ieth anniversary of the communist coup bringing so much misery over the world and on the people of the Soviet Union of which many decision makers still today in power in Ukraine were part and growing up in. And their prejudices and political concept having been shaped in economic and law faculties of the Soviet Union it is hard to arrive in modernity. And it is hard to overcome such subconscious concepts deeply imprinted in mentality like mistrust of capitalism. And Marxism was very much about the labor, land and capital market and so is capitalism. And how to organize land, labor and capital are a central if not the most central issues in a market economy and the degree of freedom and state intervention in these 3 factors is the central differential market between free and successful and less free and less successful economies. The controversy on how to best regulate these markets is ongoing everywhere from France to Ukraine, from China to the USA so Ukraine leaders reluctance to tackle it now and spend their political capital and power on opening land, labor and capital market can be understood, but can not be excused. Ukraine is in a vital life and death confrontation with Russia and has committed to Western Integration and its future in the EU and so to reform the economic governance system into a full working market economy cannot be dodged and postponed. And the best moment for such reforms is now at the beginning of the reform phase when people are ready and indeed require some leadership and direction and are ready to invest in change, transformation and reforms even if painful but when perceived as meaningful and promising growth and prosperity. And there can be no doubt after the success of central European and the first Balkan EU Accession that the European way leads to fast track prosperity for businesses and citizens of countries ready to reform and accepted by its European peer as such a future European member state due to its credential and convincing reform effort. Poland is now at 12.372$ GDP per capita almost 6 times Ukrainian GDP and Romania at 9400$ and more than 4 times and the Republic of Kosovo, the poorest current potential EU Candidate member of the Balkans at 3660$ still far ahead from Ukraine today. Who can be satisfied with that? And how to change that without opening the capital, land and labor market? Sure there are fears and risks and yes if something’s goes wrong? Good then a state has all the power to intervene. But now at the end of 2017 soon 4 years after the revolution it is time for leaving the emergency and fear phase and entering the strategic phase of European accession and the vital step of European Economic reform which are needed to deliver the growth and the European investment in Ukraine to make Ukrainian EU integration feasible, successful for both side and irreversible. ETR is now publishing a series of articles on how to accelerate reforms for European Ukraine to advocate for the opening of the land, labor and capital markets for Ukraine right now ready for 2018 investment and growth period for Ukraine. And so allowing a ever deeper and closer integration of Ukraine and European economy as the basis for realistic EU accession perspective based a deep mutual invested economy and Ukraine as a successful and growing and positive membership contribution for the European unification project. And of course in cooperation and following the success of the recent EU accession reform decade of the fellow European Union Candidate Countries from South Eastern Europe. Time for Trust– open the Capital market now It is perfectly understandably to restrict capital transfers during a currency crisis like Ukraine has been experiencing during 20014 and 2015 because - and this matters - of the unbelievable dimension of the currency manipulation of the previous kleptocratic regime keeping the currency inflated and the central bank as a financing instrument of an corrupt elite. But this time is gone and the major effort to fix the situation and regain macroeconomic stability has been achieved and needs to be applauded and respected. It is clear that fear is still in the bone of decision makers having to manage daily such shocks and responsibilities. But fear is not the guiding principle for fast track reform and 2017 is not 2015. Ukraine has moved on and it is time for more openness. It is time for fully open the capital market under EU regulation and integrate with the EU economy and especially stop limiting transfers of profits or similar limitation basically locking capital in Ukraine. It is time to send a signal of strength and confidence. This is essential to attract new FDI with all the expertise and technology, which Ukraine so urgently requires to upgrade its energy system and industrial from aerospace to automotive. This needs European investment and European investment need an open capital market. In South Eastern European after the first difficult post war years of stabilizing the economy and reforming the banking system there was an open capital market from almost the beginning and it was a wise decision. It will work as well in Ukraine. Will there be a massive capital flight? There is some pent up repatriation requirement but it will be balanced by new investor understanding the signal of confidence and strength which Ukraine send to the world by ending such limitations. Opening the capital market means as well a new venture capital financing culture. A more transparent stock exchange under EU regulation protecting investor and their investment and it means a new shareholding culture protecting minority shareholders. It means as well a new cooperation level between the financial sector banks and insurance for responsible European stewardship with and for the interests of the saving public and convincing the saving public to trust the banks and insurance again. It means as well a new public private dialogue to develop the consumer mortgage sector, analyses the reason for sad very high interest rates in Ukraine and jointly address the underlying reason and make investment and saving and taking loans reasonable again. What is needed is as well a major drive for formalization of SME and a e-payment drive combined with adopting latest EU accounting directive to ensure more transparent booking keeping, balance sheet reflecting reality and a new corporate financial transparency culture in Ukraine very much depending on the reform and attitude and rates of applied towards business from large to small in Ukraine from 2018 onwards. A new financial cultural requires as well an incentive culture to invest in Ukraine despite the origin of the capital by offering an tax amnesty for the past for a certain period and price and for non violent crime, tax evasion and a all but not the most important members of the past kleptocracy. Revenge can not be the guideline, justice should but even justice often offer financial recommendation instead of jail, jails costs as well, and the burden of significant numbers of costly court cases whose results and insecure it has to be balanced with the loss in flight capital currently parked abroad in locations from Vienna, Zurich, Nicosia, Lichtenstein or elsewhere. This might not be popular but is necessary to ensure enough development capital is available for the next economic development stage of Ukraine. A new financial culture requires a lower tax rate – 10% for corporate profits instead of 18% tax rates do matter the Ukrainian investment climate no matter what government officials have stated during the 2017 budget cycle planning to leave tax rates at 18%. But they matter. For investors for sure. Maybe less for the state because it would not be revenue loss given higher investment and growth and compliance. But in deciding to either invest in Ukraine or Poland, Hungary or Romania this makes a big difference when EU Hungary applies 9% and NON EU high risk and at war Ukraine applies 18%. Where is the logical in that? And how to formalize the SME sector and how to increase bank transfer for rental payments and how to increase the balance sheet culture with 18% tax – costs for the investors to be calculated in the formalized economy and to be avoided in the shadows? It is time for 10%, no doubt.

European Ukraine - Open the Labor Market As the second key market Ukraine needs to reform is the labor market. Both the way domestic labor market is organized and the openness degree first to European labor waiting to work in Ukraine and Ukrainians in the EU. First things first. Opening the Ukrainian labor market to the EU on the same unilateral for EU, EFTA, NAFTA and CEFTA and GUAM states would not lead to massive inwards work migration but put Ukraine on the map as open and reasonable country, committed to westwards integration and put the bargaining position for Ukraine up for opening the labor markets of CEFTA and GUAM first and possible step by step with some member state of the EU and NAFTA by time to be more open to Ukrainian labor migration. Similar like Poland has opened to very positive effects its labor market to Ukrainians. This is the right way to integrate and increase the potential employment market for Ukrainians, ensure all skills and talent is available for Ukrainian companies and integrates Ukraine further with the EU. But the more complicated reform is not about opening the labor market but truing the Ukrainian labor market towards a more flexible employer- employee relation, making hiring less risky and firing deepening more on contractual and economic reasons than on social consideration and ensure a competitive labor market designed for growth. Germany has done excellent reforms of the labor market making it much more flexible while increasing flexibility and increasing social protection and resulting in halving the German unemployment rate. This is a major achievement to be carefully studied and best applied in Ukraine. Reform the social assistance system, improve protection and support for the social assistance requiring segments while at the same time investing heavily in skills and education development and in life long education and strengthening the dual vocation professional education for the working youth in the handicraft sector is a major achievement in itself but compared with southern European youth employment, countries which have studied the German system of youth education in handicraft but decided, sadly to go a different direction and facing now significant unemployment in the youth segment and these young southern Europeans now moving to the central European labor market in droves. This is a proof that a working labor market with due social projection but not restricting flexibility actually allowing flexibility while not exaggerating it, is the right way. Ukraine has avoided to reform its labor market and has opened a new segment mostly unregulated consulting agreements while not defining what is self employed and employed working relation and so most of the IT sector but as well considerable part of waiters and shop and sales clerks are now consultants as well to sideline the restrictive labor market regulation designed for past state industrial live long factory work. And it would be so clear. Only one contract, one reporting line, full time, please, that is an employee and not a consultant and social protection, health and pension and tax has to be paid jointly by employer and employee. So the current way this is organized in a parallel labor market between very restrictive labor relation in the official, state and FDI economy careful then to enter a labor contact and a super competitive gray sector of so called consultant that was possible good way as a start - but please now it is time to provide some frame and cover for the vulnerable groups without social protection who are in fact employee and allow more official employment by making labor relation and contract more flexible. And yes some might face then unemployment and have to look for new employment but better to work where there is economic rationale and productivity then just spend the day useless while being paid. The time of socialist employment is over and in fact it was never working well but always subsidizes on others input, with other workers performing or international loans or unique natural resources to be spent on keeping people busy without economic rationale. Now this luxury there is no longer and certainly not for Ukraine and much better that way and productive and free and open labor markets are amazing job creation machine and please see the German successful model of the last decade and why not repeat it in Ukraine? Why should the Ukrainian youth have to migrant to Germany for reasonable work condition and income if Ukraine has all this economic potential and labor requirements - just because your elite is prisoner by old static closed and sad concept of the past concerning the labor market. The protection of the few enlisted insider against the outsiders and newcomers is the principle of protectionism and young and outsider have no other choice then to leave just because of bad regulation of labor market in the name of social protection of the protected few insider having the support for state or semi state industrial employment? And they being ready to trade of this security with higher income potential because a competitive labor market where employees are active to increases wages and aware they can find new employment in an thriving and open economy is the best way for higher wages and growing income and so a growing consumer purchasing power driven middle class economy. It is your labor market regulation keeping you down and forcing your youth to migrate and it is time to change that.

European Ukraine – Open the Land Market Land, fertile and famous and abundant is a key asset of Ukraine. Actually it is source of Ukrainians wealth since a millennium. The great fertile plains, plenty of water and great navigatable rivers leading via the Black Sea to the world are the envy of the world and the potential of Ukrainian land in terms of agriculture is amazing. And land is essential for all economic activities from residential construction to manufacturing and industrial to infrastructure and logistics to urban and retail land is a essential economic factor and it is sad how Ukraine is treating it amazing potential and leaving it a potential for too long instead of turning it into an productive growth and employment generation factor. The most shocking violation and infringement of human and property rights of all is certainly the moratorium of land sales for agriculture land. How can such a restriction still exist in a European country in 2017? Sad enough even some international partners believe that you cannot trust owners to decide themselves to sell, hold, invest or lease and yes even decide to sell to invest the capital in other direction like buying a retirement home or giving it their grandchildren or making holidays. If you believe in ownership that is it, Simple and clear. We can be glad that these internationals working here in Ukraine and expressing such advice are far from decision-making power back home. What kind of property rights system we would develop with such diplomats being politicians back home. Good that will anyhow not happen and luckily there is the IMF firmly insisting that this is a condition for further funding and the Ukrainian political elite gradually giving up its resistance and so the year 2018 might see European normality in terms of land market in Ukraine. And this could possible – jointly with an improvement of the general economic development and some stability in Eastern Ukraine front line with the Russian aggressor led to a major investment boom from 2018 onwards in Ukrainian agriculture, land, food processing and relevant services and transport logistics and start a major economic upwards cycle for Ukraine now with DCFTA and an open land market. There is a lot of confused debate about further regulation the land market and please again the SEE example is the best for Ukraine. Leave the market open and let the investor and the seller decide and regulate the land use with urban and spatial planning and be clear and firm on that but stay out of the ownership question. The public task is urban and spatial planning, protecting the environment and setting rules and regulation for construction and agriculture and inspecting and supervising such rules based on European public administration principle and best back by a European Kataster. Based on this land can be turned into a productive wealth for the nation and from that all Ukrainians will be profiting but lofty protectionism and keeping land ideal in the name of social and national ideals of the past is a very sad performance for a country with European ambitions. And it is time to get serious now. Insisting on European future and declaring to join NATO and EU is excellent. Europe has understood. Having achieved stability in budget and macroeconomics is excellent. Europe is relieved. But as you are the last country having started transition to EU accession and the biggest country of Central and Eastern Europe, Europe has been through the process already and is stunned by the size of the challenges. And given the reluctance to start the central reforms, there is reluctance to bet our European future as well on the secure western path of Ukraine on it the 3rd effort. The South Eastern European countries have reached a higher level of openness in labor, capital and land for domestic and international investors already in 2002, partly true for a more chaotic post war transition but that helped to focus minds on a more dynamic and possible more aggression but certainly more ambitious growth trajectory which despite much less geological, geographic and logistic advantages has lifted the poorest region of European lost 500 years in the Ottoman Empire to double or triple the prosperity of Ukraine today. And openness was the key to that immense progress in prosperity, unprecedented in just a decade and the background. And now it is time for openness for Ukraine.