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Avoiding a New 'Cold War': the Future of EU-Russia Relations in the Context Of SPECIALREPORT SR020 March 2016 Avoiding a New 'Cold War' The Future of EU-Russia Relations in the Context of the Ukraine Crisis Editor LSE IDEAS is an Institute of Global Affairs Centre Dr Cristian Nitoiu that acts as the School’s foreign policy think tank. Through sustained engagement with policymakers and opinion-formers, IDEAS provides a forum that IDEAS Reports Editor informs policy debate and connects academic research Joseph Barnsley with the practice of diplomacy and strategy. IDEAS hosts interdisciplinary research projects, produces working papers and reports, holds public Creative Director and off-the-record events, and delivers cutting-edge Indira Endaya executive training programmes for government, business and third-sector organisations. Cover image source The ‘Dahrendorf Forum - Debating Europe’ is a joint www.istockphoto.com initiative by the Hertie School of Governance, the London School of Economics and Political Science and Stiftung Mercator. Under the title “Europe and the World” the project cycle 2015-2016 fosters research and open debate on Europe’s relations with five major regions. lse.ac.uk/IDEAS Contents SPECIALREPORT SR020 March 2016 Avoiding A New ‘Cold War’: The Future of EU-Russia Relations in the Context of the Ukraine Crisis EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 Cristian Nitoiu PRefaCE 3 Vladislav Zubok CONTRIBUTORS 6 PART I. EU-RUSSIA RelaTIONS: PAST, PRESENT, FUTURE Could it have been Different? 8 The Evolution of the EU-Russia Conflict and its Alternatives Tuomas Forsberg and Hiski Haukkala Russia and the EU: A New Future Requested 15 Fyodor Lukyanov Why the EU-Russia Strategic Partnership Could Not Prevent 20 a Confrontation Over Ukraine Tom Casier Security Policy, Geopolitics and International Order 26 in EU-Russia Relations during the Ukraine Crisis Roy Allison Member States’ Relations with Russia: Solidarity and Spoilers 33 Maxine David PART II. EU-RUSSIA INTERACTIONS IN THE SHARED NEIGHBOURHOOD EU-Russia Relations in the Context of the Eastern Neighbourhood 40 Elena Korosteleva Russia’s Foreign Policy towards the Post-Soviet Space Since 2000 46 Alexey Gromyko Going Forward: The Eurasian Economic Union, the European Union and 50 the Others David Lane Russia’s Policy towards the Black Sea Region and EU-Russia Relations 57 Sergii Glebov PART III. KEY ISSUES ON THE AGENDA OF EU-RUSSIA RELATIONS The Crisis of 2014-2015 and Perspectives on European-Russian Relations 64 in the Energy Security Sphere Andrei Kazantsev Economic Relations Between the EU and Russia: Sanctioning Failure? 73 Christopher Hartwell Russia and the EU: The Global Cooperation Agenda 81 Alexander Titov External Actors in EU-Russia Relations: Between Norms and Space 86 Richard Sakwa PART IV. CONCLUSIONS Is Meaningful Cooperation Between the EU and Russia Still Possible? 94 Cristian Nitoiu LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 98 Avoiding A New ‘Cold War’: The Future of EU-Russia Relations in the Context of the Ukraine Crisis | 1 Executive Summary Cristian Nitoiu PART II. EU-RUSSIA INTERACTIONS IN THE SHARED NEIGHBOURHOOD elations between the European Union (EU) and Russia have been traditionally characterised by the EU-Russia Relations in the Context of the Eastern Neighbourhood 40 dichotomy between conflict and cooperation.T his has influenced the abstract nature of the EU-Russia Elena Korosteleva R strategic partnership. Russia’s Foreign Policy towards the Post-Soviet Space Since 2000 46 The Ukraine crisis has had a deep impact on the EU’s foreign policy and its approach towards Russia. It Alexey Gromyko highlighted that the EU’s eastern neighbourhood is characterised by intense geopolitical competition with Russia. The crisis also underscored the weakness of the EU’s ‘low politics’ approach in its relations with Russia and post-Soviet space. On the other hand, Russia’s actions in Ukraine have made EU member states more willing to act together and take a harder line against Moscow. Going Forward: The Eurasian Economic Union, the European Union and 50 the Others Thus, EU-Russia relations have entered a period of stalemate. David Lane This Special Report evaluates the way the Ukraine In his review of security relations on the European crisis affected EU-Russia relations and provides continent, Roy Allison argues that Russian challenges to Russia’s Policy towards the Black Sea Region and EU-Russia Relations 57 recommendations on how cooperation might be the international order have developed incrementally Sergii Glebov restored and the stalemate overcome. At the same since the end of the Cold War and have been partly time, it takes a broader perspective of EU-Russia a response to Western actions. He recommends relations by looking at their complex economic, political, European leaders stick firmly to the current rules of and security interactions, but also their divergent the international order and resist the Russian rhetoric PART III. KEY ISSUES ON THE AGENDA OF EU-RUSSIA RELATIONS approaches to various salient issues on the regional of ‘changing the rules of the game’. and global agenda. The Crisis of 2014-2015 and Perspectives on European-Russian Relations 64 Maxine David provides another piece of the puzzle of in the Energy Security Sphere The first part of the report evaluates the roots of the EU-Russia relations by uncovering the effect of member Andrei Kazantsev Ukraine crisis and analyses them in the context of the states’ bilateral relations with Moscow. According to past and future of EU-Russia relations. her, bilateral relations might lead to disunity when it Economic Relations Between the EU and Russia: Sanctioning Failure? 73 comes to the EU’s common approach, but they can The first chapter of the report explores the factors that Christopher Hartwell also lay the groundwork for dialogue and negotions led to the breakdown of EU-Russia relations in the in times of crisis. context of the Ukraine crisis. Tuomas Forsberg and Hiski Haukkala highlight that the Ukraine crisis was caused The second part of the report looks at how the EU and Russia and the EU: The Global Cooperation Agenda 81 by a dangerous mix of decisions and choices made by Russia interact in their shared neighbourhood. Alexander Titov all sides involved in the conflict: Ukraine, Russia, the EU, and the United States. Elena Koroteleva’s chapter focuses on the EU’s foreign policy strategy towards the post-Soviet states. She External Actors in EU-Russia Relations: Between Norms and Space 86 Looking towards the future, Fyodor Lukyanov explains argues that the EU and Russia have been blind to each Richard Sakwa how Russia perceives the EU’s model of integration other’s projects in the region. She proposes that the EU in the post-Soviet space. He argues that due to the provides more leeway to the neighbourhood states by asymmetric way in which the EU’s integration project allowing its integration project to be complementary PART IV. CONCLUSIONS has developed, relations between Russia and the EU and not in competition with the one promoted Is Meaningful Cooperation Between the EU and Russia Still Possible? 94 suffer from a severe strategic impasse. He particularly by Russia. Cristian Nitoiu recommends that the EU starts engaging with Russia on issues such as energy, demographics or In a similar way, Alexei Gromyko’s chapter explores cross-border cooperation in order to revive the ‘Greater Russia’s foreign policy strategy towards the post- Europe’ project. Soviet states. He contends that both Europe and Russia LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 98 2 | LSE IDEAS - Dahrendorf Forum Special Report. March 2016 should start directing their attention to common risks Alexander Titov highlights the potential ways in which and threats in the post-Soviet space, with the EU and Russia and the EU can enhance their cooperation on Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) engaging on a path various issues on the global agenda other than the towards meaningful cooperation. Ukraine crisis. He proposes that European leaders and the Kremlin should agree on a common set of norms and Being disillusioned by the EU’s promotion of liberal values in international relations akin to the Westphalian values and partly due to the desire to leave behind a system: sovereignty, territoriality, diplomacy, and great lasting legacy, Putin has actively pushed for the creation power management of global issues. of the EEU. David Lane argues that the Russian led integration is reactive, not based on a clear ideology, Richard Sakwa examines the way in which external and ultimately modelled on the example of the EU. He forces affect EU-Russia relations. He finds that the proposes that the EU should take seriously the EEU, seek European continent is stuck between two mutually accommodation, and refrain from trying to achieve exclusive directions: Atlanticism and Euransiasm. Russia hegemony in the post-Soviet space. is increasingly embracing its Asian identity, while Europe relies more and more on the US for assuring Sergii Glebov believes that the Black Sea region is a its security needs. This situation will only deepen the rift space where both the EU and Russia could agree on a between the EU and Russia, if both actors do not seek set of common principles and start a dialogue. to substantiate a common pluralistic understanding of ‘Greater Europe’. The third part of the report focuses on a series of key issues on the agenda of EU-Russia relations. In this report’s concluding contribution, which overviews the key issues of contention in EU-Russia In his chapter, Andrei Kazantsev explains how Russia’s relations and presents possible recommendations, and the EU’s approaches to energy security have Cristian Nitoiu argues that cooperation will most likely developed during the Ukraine crisis. He argues that both be re-established by glossing over the challenges to the EU and Russia should engage in confidence building the regional order caused by the Ukraine crisis. If in the measures that would contribute to rebuilding mutual past both the EU and Russia were careful not to discuss trust in the energy sphere.
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