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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR a DAILY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE Monday, October 7, 2019

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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR a DAILY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE Monday, October 7, 2019 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR A DAILY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUE www.thedialogue.org Monday, October 7, 2019 BOARD OF ADVISORS FEATURED Q&A TODAY’S NEWS Diego Arria Director, Columbus Group POLITICAL Devry Boughner Vorwerk Who Has the Edge Indigenous CEO, DevryBV Sustainable Strategies Groups Take Joyce Chang Global Head of Research, Ahead of Uruguay’s Lead in Ecuador JPMorgan Chase & Co. Protests Paula Cifuentes Director of Economic & Fiscal Affairs, Presidential Vote? Indigenous groups have become Latin America & Canada, the leaders of protests against Philip Morris International President Lenín Moreno’s elimina- Marlene Fernández tion of fuel subsidies as transpor- Corporate Vice President for tation unions stepped back from Government Relations, Arcos Dorados leading the demonstrations. Page 2 Peter Hakim President Emeritus, Inter-American Dialogue BUSINESS Donna Hrinak President, Boeing Latin America Venezuela Arrests Jon E. Huenemann Former Corporate and Three in PDVSA Government Senior Executive Joint Venture James R. Jones Chairman, Frente Amplio candidate Daniel Martínez heads into Uruguay’s presidential election later this The president of a joint venture Monarch Global Strategies month as the front-runner, but he faces tough competition. // File Photo: Martínez Campaign. between Venezuelan state oil Craig A. Kelly company PDVSA and China’s Director, Americas International Former Montevideo Mayor Daniel Martínez of the ruling CNPC and two others have been Gov’t Relations, Exxon Mobil Frente Amplio coalition appears to be the front-runner arrested in connection with a John Maisto corruption investigation. Director, U.S. Education ahead of Uruguay’s Oct. 27 election, with 40 percent of Finance Group Page 3 Q support in the latest Radar survey. Earlier this year, however, Nicolás Mariscal Chairman, Frente Amplio received 23.6 percent of the overall vote in the country’s ECONOMIC Grupo Marhnos primaries, trailing the opposition Partido Nacional, with 41.6 percent. Thomas F. McLarty III Russia Will Chairman, Uruguay’s primaries allow voters to select both a preferred presidential Help Cuba Secure McLarty Associates candidate for each party and a preferred party. With nearly a month to go Carlos Paz-Soldan Fuel: Medvedev Partner, until election day, how likely is Martínez’s victory? Is a second round of DTB Associates, LLP voting expected, and how might that change the race’s dynamics? What Russia’s government will help Beatrice Rangel Cuba secure supplies of oil and Director, are the most important factors driving voter preferences this election petroleum products, Russian AMLA Consulting LLC cycle? Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev Jaana Remes said in an interview. Partner, Page 2 McKinsey Global Institute Nicolás Saldías, senior researcher at the Wilson Center’s Ernesto Revilla Head of Latin American Latin America Program and Argentina Project and Ph.D Economics, Citi candidate at the University of Toronto: “An average of the Gustavo Roosen Chairman of the Board, latest polls shows the Frente Amplio (FA) at about 35 percent. Envases Venezolanos A This figure puts the party at risk of losing its parliamentary majority and Andrés Rozental forcing Daniel Martínez to a second round in the presidential election President, Rozental & Asociados against the conservative Partido Nacional, led by Luis Lacalle Pou, or, Shelly Shetty less likely, the centrist Partido Colorado under outsider Ernesto Talvi. Head of Sovereign Ratings, Latin America, Fitch Martínez is a moderate from the Socialist Party, and he proved to be an Roberto Sifon-Arevalo adept and popular mayor of Montevideo—seen as a stepping stone to the Managing Director, Americas Sovereign & Public Finance Ratings, presidency. In June, Martínez won his party’s primary, but against two Standard & Poor’s candidates from the left who split the vote. The FA’s competitive primary highlights that, after 15 years in power, there is a sense of frustration that Medvedev // File Photo: Russian Government. Continued on page 3 COPYRIGHT © 2019, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 1 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Monday, October 7, 2019 POLITICAL NEWS ECONOMIC NEWS NEWS BRIEFS Indigenous Groups Russia to Help Rain Has Extinguished Take Lead in Cuba Secure Fuel Bolivia Wildfires: Officials Heavy rains have put out wildfires that Ecuador Protests Supplies: Medvedev destroyed more than four million hectares of land on the eastern side of Bolivia, according Indigenous groups in Ecuador announced Russia will work to help Cuba secure supplies to a Santa Cruz province official, BBC News Friday that they would continue protests of oil and petroleum products, Russian Prime reported today. “It has rained all across Chiq- in opposition to President Lenín Moreno’s Minister Dmitry Medvedev said in an interview uitanía and our satellite no longer shows any decision to eliminate fuel subsidies as part of broadcast on Saturday, Reuters reported. active forest fires,” the unnamed official said. austerity moves, BBC News reported. Oppo- Medvedev vowed to help boost Cuba’s energy The fires led to protests against President Evo nents of Moreno’s elimination of the subsidies, sector during a visit to the Caribbean nation, Morales’ environmental policies. which he has said are needed to adhere to the though he did not announce any short-term terms of a $4.2 billion deal with the Interna- measures to alleviate Cuba’s crippling fuel tional Monetary Fund, argue that the move shortages following tougher U.S. sanctions. Nicaragua Won’t has led to higher prices not only for fuel but However, support from both Venezuela and also other consumer goods. Merchants had Russia, some of Cuba’s closest allies, is Return Private TV been overcharging for products including corn, unlikely to resolve the fuel shortages, which Station to Owners: Gov’t onions, carrots and potatoes, the prices of have prompted the Cuban government to Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega’s govern- which are regulated by price controls, accord- implement energy-saving policies over the ment has said that 100% Noticias, a private ing to authorities. “There is no justification for last month. Among the measures are cutting television station that police seized in Decem- raising the prices,” said Interior Minister María public transportation, reducing production at ber, will not be returned to its owners, accusing Romo. Some 20 people have been arrested for some factories and encouraging the use of it of inciting anti-government violence, accord- increasing food prices, according to Ecuador’s more animal-powered vehicles and wood-fired ing to a statement submitted to the Inter-Amer- government. Protesters have blocked main ovens, Reuters reported. “I think we will find ican Human Rights Commission, the Associat- roads and highways in the country, including other ways to help Cuba get oil and petroleum ed Press reported Saturday. In the statement, with burning tires. Moreno has said that he will products,” Medvedev told Rossiya 1 TV when the government alleges the occupation of the not bring back the subsidies. Transportation asked if Russian ships could escort oil tankers TV station is necessary while it probes the unions had originally led the protests, but on to Cuba. “We discussed this today and agreed station’s director, Miguel Mora, and head of Friday night, Abel Gómez, a spokesman for that we would draft a work plan for energy news Lucía Pineda for alleged involvement in the transportation union, said the unions were supplies to Cuba, bearing in mind conventional a “failed coup attempt.” Mora and Pineda were calling off the protests and handing a list of energy sources, hydrocarbons and maybe some both imprisoned for six months. demands to the government, Reuters reported. other available avenues,” he added. Meanwhile, “Therefore today, for our side, our measures also on Saturday, Russian Deputy Prime Minis- end,” said Gómez. However, indigenous ter Yuri Borisov met with Venezuelan President groups, students and other unions said they Nicolás Maduro in Caracas, underlying Russia’s Chilean Prosecutors to would continue demonstrating and called for support for the leftist leader amid a political Press Charges Against a nationwide strike on Wednesday. “These standoff with the opposition. In a meeting of ENAP Executives will be days of unrest,” said Nelson Erazo, the the Russian-Venezuelan intergovernmental head of the Popular Front, an umbrella group commission in Caracas with Borisov, Venezu- Chilean prosecutors plan to press charges for unions and social movements. “Not even elan Vice President Tareck El Aissami thanked against six executives of state energy company jail will stop the Ecuadorean people’s struggle.” Moscow, saying “Russian-Venezuelan relations ENAP in connection with toxic fumes that sick- Moreno has declared a state of emergency are at their best moment,” Reuters reported. ened hundreds of local residents in the city of amid the protests, which had resulted in 368 “We’ve shown that in the middle of difficul- Quintero last year, the prosecutors’ office told arrests as of Friday night. Most of the arrests ties we can advance together, with efficient Reuters on Saturday. The local prosecutor’s happened in Quito and Guayaquil, according to political and diplomatic coordination between office said it would soon press charges against the Interior Ministry, the wire service reported. both governments against the imperial siege officials at ENAP’s refineries and port facilities [Editor’s note: See related Q&A in Friday’s issue and aggression which Russia
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