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sist,ecTa.6 papaws IN A 1C iJd1L EMNOtvie CS V0L-.IV No. UNIVERSITY OF BRISTOL DEPARTMENT of ECONOMICS (Agricultural Economics) CIANNINI.- FO.UNDATION EilowalintAL LIa LidAzi...ECONOMICSay, SOME ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE SHEEP INDUSTRY IN THE WEST OF ENGLAND Report No. 2 The Sheep Enterprise in the Upland Areas of S.W. Somerset and N.W. Hereford by R. R. JEFFERY Price 5s. 1 1 • SOME ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE SHEEP INDUSTRY IN THE WEST OF ENGLAND Report No. 2 The Sheep Enterprise in the Upland Areas of S.W. Somerset and N.W. Hereford by R. R. JEFFERY November, 1952 A 1 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS THIS opportunity is gratefully accepted to thank those farmers who co-operated with this Department, many for the second year in succession, for the very considerable demands made upon their time and attention in making available the large body of information without which this investigation could not have been undertaken. Acknowledgement is also due to my colleague, M.B. Jawetz, who undertook part of the field work involved in the N.W. Hereford district. , 3 INTRODUCTION Numbers of Sheep and Production of Mutton and Lamb in the U.K. 1937-9 to 1952 IN order to ensure adequate supplies of more essential foods during the war and early post-war years, the production of mutton and lamb in the U.K. was discouraged during this period by the fixing of prices for sheep products, and especially for wool, at a level which fell far behind those determined for most other agricultural products. In 1947 however, when economic difficulties had largely replaced the physical priorities of wartime conditions as the primary consideration in the determination of agricultural production policy, the Agricul- tural Expansion Programme of 1947 to 1952/3 was launched; and one of the main objectives of this programme was, by means of appropriate adjustments of relative price levels, to bring about a substantial increase in the output of home- produced meat. In Table(a) an outline of the changes that have occurred in sheep numbers and in the production of mutton and lamb in the U.K. is set out, both before and since the 1947 "change of emphasis ". For the pre-war period 1937-9 total sheep in the U.K. averaged nearly 26-1 million, but, after 1940, a rapid decline set in until by 1944 the total had fallen to just over 20 million. This level was held throughout the two succeeding years but by June, 1947, following the severe blizzards of the previous winter, total numbers fell to just under 162- millions, equal to only 63 per cent of the pre-war level. Sheep numbers increased again in 1948, 1949 and 1950 and, following a slight decline in 1951 due to a below-average lamb crop, increased still further in 1952 to a total of just over 211 million, the highest figure since 1941 and equal to 82 per cent of pre-war numbers. It should be noted however that it was not until 1950 that the 1946 level was regained, and that the total for 1951 fell below this level. The annual production of mutton and lamb averaged 214,000 tons during the three pre-war years 1937-9 and,follow- ing a slight increase in 1940 when flocks were being rapidly reduced, production fell steadily to 134,000 tons in 1945, and 5 TABLE (a) United Kingdom: Total Number of Sheep at the June Censuses; Annual Production of Mutton and Lamb; Total Number of Sheep and Lambs Purchased for Slaughter Annually: 1937-9 to 1952 SHEEP AN)LAMBS: TOTAL N MBERS AT ANNUAL PRODUCTION SHEEP AND LAMBS: TOTAL PURCHASED JUNE ;ENSUS OF MUTTON AND LAMB FOR SLAUGHTER As per cent Thous. Per cent Thous. Per cent Thous Per cent . of total sheep Head of 1937-9 Tons of 1937-9 Head of 1937-9 and lambs at June Census No. % No. % No. oN 1937-9 Av. 26,401 100.0 214 100.0 10,516 100.0 39.8 1940 26,319 99.7 227 106.1 11,081 105.4 42.1 1941 22,257 84.3 176 82.2 8,573 81.5 38.5 1942 21,506 81.5 171 79.9 8,236 78.3 38.3 1943 20,383 77.2 159 74.3 7,699 73.2 37.8 1944 20,107 76.2 142 66.4 6,869 65.3 34.2 1945 20,150 76.3 134 62.6 6,582 62.6 32.7 1946 20,358 77.1 152 71.0 7,399 70.4 36.3 1947 16,713 63.3 117 54.7 5,512 52.4 33.0 1948 18,164 68.8 123 57.5 5,934 56.4 32.7 ' 1949 19,493 73.8 140 65.4 6,509 61.9 33.4 1950 20,430 77.4 149 69.6 6,943 66.0 34.0 1951 19,984 75.7 131 61.2 5,863 55.8 29.3 1952 21,627 81.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Source: Annual Abstract of Statistics. reached its lowest point in 1947 at 117,000 tons, equal to less than 55 per cent of the pre-war average. Following the recov- ery in sheep numbers between 1948 and 1950, a corresponding increase in the production of mutton and lamb occurred, which carried the total to 149,000 tons in 1950. In 1951, however, a decline to 131,000 occurred, a fall which however was more apparent than real. Compared with 1950, the total number of sheep recorded on farms in the U.K. in 1951 fell by 2.2 per cent, but the total number of sheep and lambs purchased for slaughter during 1951 fell by 15.6 per cent, and production of mutton and lamb by 12.1 per cent. The reason for this dis- proportionate fall in the number of sheep sent for slaughter in 1951 lies in the higher wool prices determined for the 1951 clip; sheep, especially lambs, that would normally have been slaughtered in 1951 were kept back on the farm in order that they could be shorn again in 1952 before feeding out. However, these fat sheep and lambs" borrowed " from 1951 will have gone through the grading centres in 1952, and, although the total production of mutton and lamb in 1952 is not available at the time of writing, production during the first ten months of the year was approximately 30 per cent greater than for the corresponding period of 1951, and 16 per cent greater than for 1950. Even with the aid of this production deferred from 1951 it seems unlikely that the target of 83 per cent of the pre-war level of mutton and lamb production set for 1952/3 under the 1947 expansion programme will be realised. It will be noted from Table (a) that the fall since 1940 in the number of sheep and lambs purchased for slaughter, and in the annual production of mutton and lamb, has been markedly and consistently greater than the corresponding fall in the total number of sheep recorded on farms at the June censuses. There has been, in fact, a significant slowing down of the rate of turnover of sheep during this period. In the immediate pre-war years, for every 100 sheep recorded at the June census, approximately 40 head were slaughtered during the year; between 1940 and 1945 this proportion fell steadily to 33 per 100, and remained at approximately this level between 1947 and 1950, falling to just under 30 in 1951. Thus, during the period 1940 to 1951, and particularly since 1945, a con- siderably greater total number of sheep have been required in the national flock to maintain any given level of mutton and lamb production than was the case in pre-war years. A slower rate of turnover of sheep can only mean that on average sheep and lambs are being slaughtered at a greater age 7 than previously, and it is therefore to be expected that the average weight per head of animals slaughtered has increased as a result. In fact, the increase has been small. The average weight of mutton and lamb produced, per animal slaughtered, equalled 45.6 lb. in 1937-9 but was only slightly over 46 lb. per head during the war years, rising to approximately 48 lb. per head in 1949/50. In 1951, when the proportion of sheep over one year old graded, to total sheep, was considerably higher owing to the holding back from slaughter of numbers of lambs, the average increased to 50 lb. per head. In view of the quite marked reduction in the rate of turn- over of sheep stocks between 1939 and 1950, the average in- crease of 2-1 lb. of mutton and lamb per animal slaughtered appears surprisingly small. Some indication of the reason why this increase was not greater may be found in changes in the distribution of sheep between the countries of Great Britain since 1939. The relevant figures are summarised in Table (b). TABLE (b) Total Number of Sheep at the June Census: Great Britain and the Separate Countries Great Britain England Wales Scotland Thousand Head No. No. No. No. 1939 . 25,993 13,337 4,648 8,007 1946 . 19,718 8,714 4,050 6,954 1947 . 16,186 7,346 2,816 6,025 1950 . 19,713 8,506 3,870 7,337 1951 . 19,312 8,617 3,835 6,859 1952* .