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UNIVERSITY OF BRISTOL

DEPARTMENT of ECONOMICS (Agricultural Economics)

CIANNINI.- FO.UNDATION EilowalintAL LIa LidAzi...ECONOMICSay,

SOME ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE INDUSTRY IN THE WEST OF

Report No. 2

The Sheep Enterprise in the Upland Areas of S.W. and N.W. Hereford

by R. R. JEFFERY

Price 5s. 1

1 • SOME ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE SHEEP INDUSTRY IN THE WEST OF ENGLAND

Report No. 2

The Sheep Enterprise in the Upland Areas of S.W. Somerset and N.W. Hereford

by

R. R. JEFFERY

November, 1952

A 1

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

THIS opportunity is gratefully accepted to thank those farmers who co-operated with this Department, many for the second year in succession, for the very considerable demands made upon their time and attention in making available the large body of information without which this investigation could not have been undertaken. Acknowledgement is also due to my colleague, M.B. Jawetz, who undertook part of the field work involved in the N.W. Hereford district.

, 3

INTRODUCTION

Numbers of Sheep and Production of Mutton and Lamb in the U.K. 1937-9 to 1952

IN order to ensure adequate supplies of more essential foods during the war and early post-war years, the production of mutton and lamb in the U.K. was discouraged during this period by the fixing of prices for sheep products, and especially for , at a level which fell far behind those determined for most other agricultural products. In 1947 however, when economic difficulties had largely replaced the physical priorities of wartime conditions as the primary consideration in the determination of agricultural production policy, the Agricul- tural Expansion Programme of 1947 to 1952/3 was launched; and one of the main objectives of this programme was, by means of appropriate adjustments of relative price levels, to bring about a substantial increase in the output of home- produced meat. In Table(a) an outline of the changes that have occurred in sheep numbers and in the production of mutton and lamb in the U.K. is set out, both before and since the 1947 "change of emphasis ". For the pre-war period 1937-9 total sheep in the U.K. averaged nearly 26-1 million, but, after 1940, a rapid decline set in until by 1944 the total had fallen to just over 20 million. This level was held throughout the two succeeding years but by June, 1947, following the severe blizzards of the previous winter, total numbers fell to just under 162- millions, equal to only 63 per cent of the pre-war level. Sheep numbers increased again in 1948, 1949 and 1950 and, following a slight decline in 1951 due to a below-average lamb crop, increased still further in 1952 to a total of just over 211 million, the highest figure since 1941 and equal to 82 per cent of pre-war numbers. It should be noted however that it was not until 1950 that the 1946 level was regained, and that the total for 1951 fell below this level. The annual production of mutton and lamb averaged 214,000 tons during the three pre-war years 1937-9 and,follow- ing a slight increase in 1940 when flocks were being rapidly reduced, production fell steadily to 134,000 tons in 1945, and 5 TABLE (a)

United Kingdom: Total Number of Sheep at the June Censuses; Annual Production of Mutton and Lamb; Total Number of Sheep and Lambs Purchased for Slaughter Annually: 1937-9 to 1952

SHEEP AN)LAMBS: TOTAL N MBERS AT ANNUAL PRODUCTION SHEEP AND LAMBS: TOTAL PURCHASED JUNE ;ENSUS OF MUTTON AND LAMB FOR SLAUGHTER As per cent Thous. Per cent Thous. Per cent Thous Per cent . of total sheep Head of 1937-9 Tons of 1937-9 Head of 1937-9 and lambs at June Census

No. % No. % No. oN 1937-9 Av. 26,401 100.0 214 100.0 10,516 100.0 39.8 1940 26,319 99.7 227 106.1 11,081 105.4 42.1 1941 22,257 84.3 176 82.2 8,573 81.5 38.5 1942 21,506 81.5 171 79.9 8,236 78.3 38.3 1943 20,383 77.2 159 74.3 7,699 73.2 37.8 1944 20,107 76.2 142 66.4 6,869 65.3 34.2 1945 20,150 76.3 134 62.6 6,582 62.6 32.7 1946 20,358 77.1 152 71.0 7,399 70.4 36.3 1947 16,713 63.3 117 54.7 5,512 52.4 33.0 1948 18,164 68.8 123 57.5 5,934 56.4 32.7 ' 1949 19,493 73.8 140 65.4 6,509 61.9 33.4 1950 20,430 77.4 149 69.6 6,943 66.0 34.0 1951 19,984 75.7 131 61.2 5,863 55.8 29.3 1952 21,627 81.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Source: Annual Abstract of Statistics. reached its lowest point in 1947 at 117,000 tons, equal to less than 55 per cent of the pre-war average. Following the recov- ery in sheep numbers between 1948 and 1950, a corresponding increase in the production of mutton and lamb occurred, which carried the total to 149,000 tons in 1950. In 1951, however, a decline to 131,000 occurred, a fall which however was more apparent than real. Compared with 1950, the total number of sheep recorded on farms in the U.K. in 1951 fell by 2.2 per cent, but the total number of sheep and lambs purchased for slaughter during 1951 fell by 15.6 per cent, and production of mutton and lamb by 12.1 per cent. The reason for this dis- proportionate fall in the number of sheep sent for slaughter in 1951 lies in the higher wool prices determined for the 1951 clip; sheep, especially lambs, that would normally have been slaughtered in 1951 were kept back on the farm in order that they could be shorn again in 1952 before feeding out. However, these fat sheep and lambs" borrowed " from 1951 will have gone through the grading centres in 1952, and, although the total production of mutton and lamb in 1952 is not available at the time of writing, production during the first ten months of the year was approximately 30 per cent greater than for the corresponding period of 1951, and 16 per cent greater than for 1950. Even with the aid of this production deferred from 1951 it seems unlikely that the target of 83 per cent of the pre-war level of mutton and lamb production set for 1952/3 under the 1947 expansion programme will be realised. It will be noted from Table (a) that the fall since 1940 in the number of sheep and lambs purchased for slaughter, and in the annual production of mutton and lamb, has been markedly and consistently greater than the corresponding fall in the total number of sheep recorded on farms at the June censuses. There has been, in fact, a significant slowing down of the rate of turnover of sheep during this period. In the immediate pre-war years, for every 100 sheep recorded at the June census, approximately 40 head were slaughtered during the year; between 1940 and 1945 this proportion fell steadily to 33 per 100, and remained at approximately this level between 1947 and 1950, falling to just under 30 in 1951. Thus, during the period 1940 to 1951, and particularly since 1945, a con- siderably greater total number of sheep have been required in the national flock to maintain any given level of mutton and lamb production than was the case in pre-war years. A slower rate of turnover of sheep can only mean that on average sheep and lambs are being slaughtered at a greater age 7 than previously, and it is therefore to be expected that the average weight per head of animals slaughtered has increased as a result. In fact, the increase has been small. The average weight of mutton and lamb produced, per animal slaughtered, equalled 45.6 lb. in 1937-9 but was only slightly over 46 lb. per head during the war years, rising to approximately 48 lb. per head in 1949/50. In 1951, when the proportion of sheep over one year old graded, to total sheep, was considerably higher owing to the holding back from slaughter of numbers of lambs, the average increased to 50 lb. per head. In view of the quite marked reduction in the rate of turn- over of sheep stocks between 1939 and 1950, the average in- crease of 2-1 lb. of mutton and lamb per animal slaughtered appears surprisingly small. Some indication of the reason why this increase was not greater may be found in changes in the distribution of sheep between the countries of Great Britain since 1939. The relevant figures are summarised in Table (b).

TABLE (b)

Total Number of Sheep at the June Census: Great Britain and the Separate Countries

Great Britain England Wales Scotland Thousand Head

No. No. No. No. 1939 . 25,993 13,337 4,648 8,007 1946 . 19,718 8,714 4,050 6,954 1947 . 16,186 7,346 2,816 6,025 1950 . 19,713 8,506 3,870 7,337 1951 . 19,312 8,617 3,835 6,859 1952* . 20,832 9,346 4,213 7,273

Index of numbers: 1939 = 100

1946 75.9 65-3 87.1 86.8 1947 62.3 55.1 60.6 75.2 1950 . 75.8 63.8 83.3 91.6 1951 . 74.3 64.6 82.5 85.7 1952* . 80.1 70.1 90.6 90.8

* Provisional. By the end of the war, at the June 1946 census, the total number of sheep in Great Britain had fallen to 75.9 per cent of the pre-war level, but this decline was not spread evenly over 8 the separate countries.. Both Wales and Scotland retained approximately 87 per cent of pre-war sheep numbers, but in the case of England only 65 per cent remained. The effect of the severe weather in the early months of 1947 upon the sheep population was felt most severely in Wales, where the total number of sheep fell by 30 per cent between June 1946 and June 1947, compared with corresponding reductions of approximately 16 per cent in England and 13 per cent for Scotland. By 1950 total numbers had recovered to approxi- mately the 1946 level for Great Britain as a whole, but were below this level in England and in Wales, and above it in Scot- land. Further increases in numbers occurred between 1950 and 1952 in England and in Wales, but for Scotland a slight decrease is recorded. By 1952 total sheep numbers in Great Britain stood at just over 80 per cent of the pre-war level; both Wales and Scotland recorded between 90 and 91 per cent, but for England the proportion was only 70 per cent of pre-war. The net effect of these changes upon the distribution of sheep between the three countries is to reduce England's share of total sheep numbers in Great Britain from just over 51 per cent in 1939 to just under 45 per cent of the total in 1952; over the same period the proportion in Wales has increased from just under 18 per cent to over 20 per cent, and in Scotland from just under 31 per cent to nearly 35 per cent. Thus, in England, where the proportion of lowland. sheep to total sheep is very considerably greater, the fall in sheep numbers has gone much further than in Scotland and Wales where hill and upland sheep predominate. And in England the fall in sheep numbers has been very largely concentrated upon the lowland districts. As a result, although the average age at which sheep are slaugh- tered has increased considerably since 1939, a change that by itself would have lead to a marked increase in the average weight of meat produced per animal slaughtered, there has occurred simultaneously a considerable decrease in the pro- portion of the heavier lowland sheep in the national flock, and a corresponding increase in the proportion of smaller hill and upland sheep, a change which has tended to reduce the average weight of sheep at any given age. The decline in the produc- tion of mutton and lamb since 1939 has thus a number of different aspects. By far the most important of these is the steep fall in the number of sheep kept, and this factor is rein- forced by a marked reduction in the rate of turnover of the national flock. Then there is the effect, tending towards a reduction in the average weight per head, of a proportionately 9 larger decline in the heavier lowland sheep, a trend which is more than offset however by an increase in the average weight per head resulting from the greater average age at slaughter, itself a result of the slower rate of turn-over. Sheep Numbers in the West of England 1939-52 The overall changes in sheep numbers for any individual country within the U.K. conceal some very marked differences in the changes experienced by individual counties, differences that may be illustrated by reference to the five West of England counties included in the Bristol University I Province.

TABLE (c) Sheep Numbers at the June Census in Five West of England Counties

INCREASE OVER NUMBER OF SHEEP AT JUNE CENSUS: JUNE 1946: THOUSAND HEAD THOUSAND HEAD 1939 1946 1947 1950 1951 1952* 1950 1951 1952* No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. Hereford . 466 389 338 378 400 440 —11 +11 +51 Somerset . 380 278 239 254 254 271 —24 —24 — 7 Worcester . 209 120 104 111 122 133 — 9 + 2 +13 Gloucester 315 150 132 158 174 188 + 8 +24 +38 Wiltshire . 219 99 81 67 74 70 —32 —25 —29 Province . 1,589 1,036 894 968 1,024 1,102 —68 —12 +66

INDEX OF SHEEP NUMBERS 1939 — 100 1946 = 100 1939 1946 1947 1950 1951 1952* 1950 1951 1952* Hereford . 100 83 73 81 86 94 97 103 113 Somerset . 100 73 63 67 67 71 91 91 97 Worcester . 100 57 50 53 58 64 92 102 111 Gloucester 100 48 42 50 55 60 105 116 125 Wiltshire . 100 45 37 31 34 32 68 75 71 Province . 100 65 56 61 64 69 93 99 106 England . 100 65 55 64 65 70 98 99 107

* Provisional.

To set the background to these changes it may be noted that in 1939 the total number of sheep recorded per 100 acres of 10 crops and grass (excluding rough grazmgs) averaged 72 for England and Wales, 57 for the five western counties combined, 107 in Hereford, 60 for Worcester, 52 in Gloucester, Somerset 49, and 37 per 100 acres in Wiltshire. By 1946, sheep numbers in the Province as a whole had fallen to 65 per cent of the pre-war level. The separate counties of the Province, although all showing a fall in numbers over this period, reveal marked differences in the extent of this decline. Hereford, traditionally a -rearing county with a high density of sheep, still retained, in 1946, 83 per cent of pre-war numbers; Somerset, typically a milk-producing county, recorded 73 per cent of pre-war numbers in 1946, but the fall would have been very much heavier, probably to less than 50 per cent of pre-war, but for the existence within the county boundaries of the upland rearing areas of and the Hills, where large numbers ofsheep are maintained and where the reduction in numbers was relatively slight. In Worcester, sheep numbers by 1946 had fallen to 57 per cent of the 1939 level, while in Gloucester the reduction was to less than one-half; the biggest decline however took place in Wilt- shire where only 45 per cent of the pre-war sheep population remained by the end of the war. Between 1947 and 1952 a general recovery has taken place, particularly during the last three years of the period, a recovery that has been general in England as a whole, and one in which all western counties, with the exception of Wiltshire, shared. Sheep numbers in England were 7 per cent, and for the Prov- ince 6 per cent higher in 1952 than in 1946, but it was not until 1952, in both cases, that the 1946 total was surpassed, although this event occurred in Worcester and Hereford in 1951, and in Gloucester in 1950. The biggest percentage increase in numbers over this period is recorded by Gloucester, although from a relatively low level in 1946; total sheep in this county were 25 per cent greater in 1952 than in 1946. Next in order comes Hereford and Worcester with increases of 13 and 11 per cent respectively. Somerset however, even in 1952, had not fully regained the 1946 level, while in Wiltshire sheep numbers were nearly 30 per cent lower in 1952, and even 13 per cent below the 1947 level. The net result of these changes is that for every 100 sheep maintained in 1939, there were, in 1952, approximately 70 sheep in England,69 in the Province as a whole,94 in Hereford, 71 in Somerset, 64 in Worcester, 60 in Gloucester, but only 32 per 100 in Wiltshire. This last county, which experienced the 11 most drastic fall in sheep numbers in the war years, owing to the virtual elimination of the commercial folded flocks from the Downs, has continued to lose sheep since. Next to Wilt- shire, Gloucester lost proportionately more sheep during the war years than any of the other five counties, and, although it has made a rapid recovery since, is still 40 per cent short of the pre-war level. After Gloucester, the best recovery has been made by Hereford, where the war-time reduction was least, but Worcester follows closely behind, although this county is still 36 per cent below the pre-war level, compared with only 6 per cent for Hereford. Somerset retained a rela- tively high proportion of its pre-war sheep in 1946, but since 1947 it has made a disappointingly slow recovery, and is still 3 per cent below the 1946 level, and 29 per cent below pre-war. Sheep Numbers in Somerset 1939-52; by type offarming areas Just as the overall changes in sheep numbers for England as a whole conceal marked differences in the experience of individual counties, so the overall figures for a county may obliterate vital differences in the experience of various farming type areas within the county, differences which, although of the greatest importance to all concerned with agricultural policy, can only be ascertained by a laborious analysis of parish statistics. Indeed, it may be maintained that the present method of presenting the results of the quarterly agricultural returns as aggregate figures for administrative areas enables the minimum of useful information to be gleaned from them. Presentation on even the roughest division into farming type areas, over regions considerably larger than a single county, would enable much more intelligent use to be made of these vital agricultural statistics. In order to ascertain approximately the magnitude and im- portance of relative changes in sheep numbers in different type-of-farming areas, the county of Somerset has been selected for a more detailed study. The reasons for selecting Somerset rather than one of the other western counties are various. In the first place, the main part of the investigation which is the subject of this report is concerned with a study of the sheep enterprise in the upland regions of Somerset; secondly the recovery in sheep numbers in this county since 1947, for rea- sons not immediately apparent, has been disappointingly slow, and, thirdly, and most important, this county falls rather more readily into distinct type-of-farming areas than is the case with the other western counties. 12 Somerset may be broadly divided into a relatively small but sharply defined upland area in the south-west, mainly devoted to store sheep and rearing, and a predominantly lowland area covering the rest of the county. Milk production is by far the most important enterprise over the whole of the lowland area, but is divided between regions where dairying is over- whelmingly the most important enterprise, and those where milk production is undertaken in conjunction with general mixed farming. Thus three broad farming-type areas, covering virtually the whole of Somerset, may be distinguished as fol- lows. (1) Upland Areas: Livestock rearing. (2) Lowland Areas: (a) Mixed farming with dairying. (b) Predominantly dairying. Representative parishes* spread throughout the entire area occupied by each of these three type groups have been selected, and parish statistics of sheep numbers obtained for certain years between 1939 and 1952. The area of land occupied by the sample parishes in each group is not in proportion to the total area of the county occupied by the particular type of farming area represented by the sample; the aim has been to select that number of parishes for each type group that will give adequate representation of that type in all parts of Somer- set where it occurs. Thus all parishes in the sample, combined, contain approximately one-sixth of the total acreage of farm- land in Somerset and, of the acreage of the combined sample, nearly 33 per cent is accounted for by parishes in the Upland Livestock Rearing Group, although this type of farming area does not in fact account for more than 10 per cent of the total area of the county. In Table (d) general data relating to acreages and numbers of sheep are set out, being the totals for the parishes in each group expressed as a percentage of the corresponding totals for Somerset as a whole.

* Parishes of: (1) Exmoor, Exford, , Exton, , Upton. (2)(a) Wambrook, Whitestaunton, Combe St. Nicholas, West Hatch, Orchard Portman, Stoke St. Mary, Ashill, Ilton, Puckington, Haselbury Plucknett, Miserton, North Perrott, Cannington, Bishops Lydiard, Milverton. (b) Sparkford, North and South Cadbury, Witham Friary, Selwood, Berkeley, Wedmore, Meare, Mark, East Pennard, Ditcheat, West Bradley, Wellow, Hemington, Mells, Priddy, Chewton Mendip, Emborough. 13 TABLE (d)

Acreage Data and Numbers of Different Classes of Sheep in 1939; for Groups of Parishes in Somerset by Farming-Type

PER CENT OF JUNE 1939 TOTAL FOR SOMERSET Uplands Lowlands Livestock Mixed with Predominantly Rearing Dairying Dairying AREA OF: Crops . 2.73 5.52 3.34 Crops and Grass 3.23 3-76 7.92 Rough Grazings 2085. 1-44 3.56 Total Area . 5.22 3.47 7.36 Total Adjusted Area 3-64 3.70 7.80 SHEEP NUMBERS: Over one year old: Breeding ewes 11.9 4.7 1.9 Two-tooth ewes 19.2 4.1 0.6 Others 7.3 4.3 2.5 Total over one year . 12-0 4.6 1.8 Under one year old . 12.5 4.0 2.0 Total Sheep . 12.2 4.4 1.9

Parishes selected to represent the Upland Livestock Rearing type of farming group together accounted, in 1939, for 5-22 per cent of the total acreage of Somerset, for 20-85 per cent of rough grazings, but for only 2-73 per cent of the total acreage of crops in the county. The parishes included in the Mixed Farming with Dairying Group covered 3-47 per cent of total area and 5-52 per cent of total crops, while parishes in the Predominantly Dairying sample accounted for 7-36 per cent of total area but for only 3-34 per cent of the county total crop acreage. On an adjusted acreage basis the Livestock Rearing Group accounted for 3-64 per cent of the total, but contained 12-20 per cent of the total number of sheep in the county in 1939; the Mixed with Dairying Group had 3-70 per cent of the total adjusted acreage and 4-40 per cent of total sheep, and the Predominantly Dairying Group, while occupying 7-80 per cent of the total adjusted acreage, accounted for less than 2 per cent of total sheep in Somerset. In Table (e) changes that have occurred in the proportion of crops, and in the numbers of sheep between 1939 and 1951 are set out. 14 TABLE (e) Changes in Crop Area and in Sheep Numbers between 1939 and 1951. By Type-of-Farming Groups.

UPLANDS LOWLANDS Livestock Mixed with Predominantly Rearing Dairying Dairying 1939 1951 1939 1951 1939 1951 Crop acreage as per cent of total crops and grass . 10.4 14.6 18-1 29.0 5-2 12.6 Total number of sheep per 100 adjusted acres of No. No. No. No. No. No. total farm area . 158 163 56 31 12 4 Per cent change: 1951 over 1939: (a) Crop area . +52 +64 +151 (b) Total sheep +3 —45 — 65

In 1939 the total number of sheep carried per 100 adjusted acres averaged 158 in the Livestock Rearing Group, 56 in the Mixed with Dairying Group, but only 12 per 100 acres in the Predominantly Dairying Group; even before the war therefore sheep were ofvery slight importance in those regions ofSomerset where dairying predominates. By 1951 total sheep numbers had increased in the Livestock Rearing Group, compared with 1939, by 3 per cent to 163 sheep per 100 adjusted acres, but had fallen by 45 per cent to 31 per 100 acres in the Mixed with Dairying Group, and by 65 per cent to 4 sheep per 100 acres in the Predominantly Dairying Group. As a result, in 1951, in order to equal the number of sheep maintained on 100 adjusted acres in the upland rearing districts it would be neces- sary to encompass over 500 acres in the mixed with dairying, and over 4,000 acres in the predominantly dairying areas. Concurrently with these changes in the number of sheep there have been some striking differences between the groups in changes in the proportion of the total area of crops and grass that is devoted to crops. In the predominantly dairying areas the acreage devoted to crops has increased, between 1939 and 1951, by no less than 151 per cent, although this increase still leaves less than 13 per cent of the total under crops. In the mixed with dairying districts crops have in- creased by 64 per cent, raising the proportion of crops from 18 per cent in 1939 to 29 per cent in 1951, while in the upland 15 rearing districts the proportional increase has been 52 per cent, but less than 15 per cent of total crops and grass were cropped in 1951. Thus, in these three type-of-farming areas, the pro- portional increase in the area ploughed up since 1939 is directly related to the fall in sheep numbers. In Table( f) the results of a more detailed analysis of the changes in sheep numbers in these three groups of parishes are set out.

TABLE (f) Index of Sheep Numbers: June 1939 = 100

INDEX OF SHEEP NUMBERS: 1939 = 100 Breeding Ewes Total Sheep Over One Year 1947 1950 1951 1952 1947 1950 1951 1952 Upland Rearing . 94-3 100.9 100.3 104.4 101.9 114.8 115.0 119.3 Lowland: Mixed with Dairying . 56.0 51.8 51.6 44.9 55.7 55.0 53.4 51.2 Predominantly Dairying 43.4 29.3 29.1 25.2 39.4 35.1 37.6 36.8 Somerset 60.5 59.6 59.1 61-3 65.0 64.9 67.5 69-7 England and Wales 57.1 65.4 66.5 70.9 63.4 70.9 75.0 78.5

Total Sheep Under One Year Total Sheep

Upland Rearing . 77.5 109.0 99.4 115.1 91.7 112.4 108.5 117.5 Lowland: Mixed with Dairying . 72.6 70.5 65.4 62.4 62.1 60.8 58.0 55-4 Predominantly Dairying 45-7 37-5 30.9 32.8 42.2 36.2 34.7 35.1 Somerset 60.0 70.2 66.0 71.8 63.0 67-1 66.9 • 71-3 England and Wales 48.1 66.3 62.2 71.6 56.5 68-8 69.2 75.4

For Somerset as a whole the sheep population fell between 1939 and 1947 to 63 per cent of the 1939 figure; in the upland areas the fall was slight, to 92 per cent; in the mixed with dairying areas the fall was to 62 per cent, while in the pre- dominantly dairying areas it was very much greater, to 42 per cent of the pre-war level. Between 1947 and 1952 sheep in Somerset increased by over 8 per cent of the 1939 total, but all of this expansion took place in the upland rearing districts where total sheep increased by one-quarter, raising the 1952 16 total for these areas to nearly 18 per cent above the pre-war level. Sheep numbers in the two lowland type-of-farming areas show a steady decline between 1947 and 1952, equal, in both cases, to approximately 7 per cent of 1939 numbers, a decrease which, by 1952, reduced total sheep numbers to 55 per cent of pre-war in the mixed with dairying areas, and to 35 per cent in the predominantly dairying. In the upland rearing areas the increase in sheep numbers since 1947 has been greatest for "Other sheep over one year" ; sheep in this category have more than doubled since 1939 and account for 40 per cent of the total increase since 1947 in sheep numbers in these districts. Breeding ewes however are

It/ only 4.4 per cent above the pre-war level, although, owing to a good lamb crop in 1952, sheep under one year old were 15 per cent higher. In marked contrast to this expansion in sheep numbers in the upland areas, farms in the mixer: with dairying areas lost, between 1939 and 1952, 55 per cent of breeding ewes, 49 per cent of total sheep over one year of age, 38 per cent of sheep under one year and nearly 45 per cent of total sheep. Corresponding losses in the predominantly dairying areas were even greater; 75 per cent of breeding ewes, 63 per cent of total sheep over one year, 67 per cent of sheep under one year and 65 per cent of total sheep of all ages. However, although the proportional losses are much greater in this last group, actual losses of sheep, owing to the relatively few kept in these areas in 1939, are a much less serious matter than in the mixed with dairying type of farming areas where the proportional losses are considerably less, but where the total number of sheep kept is much greater. The disappointingly slow recovery in the number of sheep in Somerset since 1947 is now seen to be the result of two opposing trends in different type-of-farming areas within the county. A substantial increase in the number of sheep main- tained in the upland rearing areas, which has raised total num- bers in these districts to well above the pre-war level, has been largely offset by a continuous decline in the number of sheep maintained in the lowland areas. In total, the upland districts, in which livestock rearing prevails, account for not more than 10 per cent of the total farming area of Somerset on an adjusted acreage basis, but, even in 1939, these districts accounted for close on one-third of the total sheep in the county, and in 1952 for probably not far short of one-half of the considerably reduced sheep popu- lation. The predominantly dairying districts, while covering 17 40 to 45 per cent of the total area of the county contained only 10 to 12 per cent of sheep numbers before the war, and not more than 6 per cent in 1952, while the mixed farming with dairying districts, with 45 to 50 per cent of total area and approximately 55 per cent of total sheep in 1939, had less than 45 per cent of total sheep in 1952. Between 1939 and 1952 Somerset has experienced a net loss of over 110,000 of the 380,000 sheep in the county in 1939; at a rough approximation, losses would amount to 30,000 sheep in the predominantly dairying districts and 95,000 in the mixed with dairying areas, offset by an increase of 15,000 in the upland rearing areas. Compared with pre-war years, not only has the total num- ber of sheep in the three farming-type areas shown very con- siderable changes, but there have also been significant changes in the distribution of total sheep between the various cate- gories. TABLE (g)

Distribution of Sheep Numbers Between Various Categories of Sheep: 1939 and 1952 by Type-of-Farming Areas

LOWLAND AREAS UPLAND AREAS Mixed with Predom. Dairying Dairying

1939 1952 1939 1952 1939 1952

Breeding Ewes 39.5 35.1 44.4 36.0 40.4 29.0 Two-tooth Ewes . 12.7 12.7 7•6 9.1 2•5 4.8 Others over one year 6.3 11•5 10.3 12.4 13.9 25-8 Total over one year 58.5 59•3 62.3 57.5 56.8 59.6 Sheep under one year 41-5 40.7 37.7 42.5 43.2 40.4 Total Sheep . 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Since 1939 the proportion of breeding ewes to total sheep has fallen in all three type-groups, but most markedly in the lowland groups, and especially in the Predominantly Dairying. The proportion of two-tooth ewes for breeding has remained at about the pre-war level in the Upland Rearing Group, but has increased appreciably in both of the lowland groups. Other sheep over one year show significant increases in all groups, but particularly in the Predominantly Dairying Group where they have risen from under 14 per cent of total sheep in 18 1939 to nearly 26 per cent in 1952, an increase which has been accompanied by a corresponding fall in the proportion of breeding ewes from 40 per cent to 29 per cent of total sheep. Not only therefore has the per cent fall in sheep numbers in the predominantly dairying areas been much greater, but it has been accompanied by very considerable changes in the struc- ture of the remaining sheep enterprise, in which adult sheep for feeding out are now nearly as numerous as breeding ewes. Further, an examination of sheep numbers for individual parishes in this group in recent years reveals considerable, and irregular, changes in the total number of sheep kept from year to year, a state of affairs which strongly suggests that, on a considerable proportion of farms in these areas, sheep are not kept as part of a consistent policy, but on an "in -and-out" basis according to circumstances on individual farms at parti- cular times. Briefly summarising the changes that have occurred in these three type-of-farming areas in Somerset since 1939, it is clear that, in the predominantly dairying areas, war and post- war conditions have enforced a still greater concentration upon milk production. The need to replace imported concentrates by home-grown foodstuffs has meant that an increased acreage of crops has had to be provided for the herd, and that, with a larger headage of dairy cattle concentrated upon a smaller area of grassland remaining, the elimination qf two- thirds of the few sheep maintained in these areas before the war was inevitable. In the mixed farming with dairying areas, although milk production is the most important single enter- prise, it is only one of a number of important enterprises, and while on this type of farm the additional demands upon the land made by the dairy herd is a major reason for the reduction of sheep numbers, sheep have also been reduced to make way for increased acreages of arable crops grown for direct human consumption. In short, in lowland areas sheep have been dis- placed since 1939 by all products which involve a more profit- able or a more productive use of land resources, as indeed was intended. In the upland areas however, the scope for substi- tuting milk production for livestock rearing is much less than in lowland areas, while the possibility of producing cash crops hardly exists at all. In these districts there has been, therefore, despite relatively low prices for sheep products between 193'7 and 1947, a more or less enforced concentration upon the pro- duction of store sheep and cattle, and it is perhaps not sur- prising that, in marked contrast to the lowland areas of 19 Somerset, sheep numbers have been not only maintained but,in recent years, substantially increased compared with pre-war. The differences shown in the changes in number and compo- sition of sheep stocks according to type-of-farming area are perhaps the most important feature of these introductory analyses. Although shown here for the county of Somerset alone, the relative changes are almost certainly reproduced by other West of England counties. Indeed, in so far as these changes represent a response to economic circumstances com- mon to the whole of Great Britain, they are probably dupli- cated throughout the country as a whole. The marked differences in the changes experienced in the various type-of-farming areas are of direct relevance to the prob- lem of increasing sheep numbers. If future expansion is to be confined mainly to upland rearing areas then the extent to which it can proceed will be much more limited than if the lowland areas can be brought in to support the expansion. But it is clear that both economic and technical considerations vary so considerably between different type-of-farming areas that these areas will not react in the same way to any particular measure designed to foster an increase in sheep numbers. One "blanket " policy for the whole country is unlikely therefore to be uniformly effective, and might, for example, lead to an increase in the production of store sheep in upland areas un- accompanied by any corresponding demand for store sheep from lowland farmers, a development that could easily leave the upland rearer in a worse position than before. One of the main questions that arises in connection with an expansion of sheep numbers in the lowlands concerns the type- of-farming areas in which an increase can most hopefully be sought, and the particular measures necessary to bring about such an expansion. As far as the predominantly dairying areas are concerned, it is highly improbable, while the policy of maximum self-sufficiency on the farm continues to be stressed, and, more important, while the price of purchased concen- trates remains so high, that there is any scope for an increase in the number of sheep maintained; it seems more likely that sheep numbers in these areas will continue to decline. In the case of the mixed farming areas the position is more hopeful, if only for the reason that there is much greater scope for an increase in sheep numbers, and that considerations relating to the maintenance of soil fertility may make such a development necessary in these districts. Possibly many farms in the mixed farming areas, now without sheep, could carry a 20 few sheep in addition to their other enterprises, without the need to make more than the minimum of special provision to feed them. However, it seems unlikely that sheep-keeping on a small scale (a few sheep on every farm) will appeal to many farmers in these or any other areas. Sheep have a considerable "nuisance " value around the farm, an attribute peculiar to themselves, and one which often attaches more to a "few " sheep than to a sizeable flock. This includes a propensity to be on any part of the farm other than that to which they have been, supposedly, confined, which together with a whole cata- logue of ills and mishaps to which they are subject, makes constant, and skilled, attention essential. Also, even though the food requirements of a few sheep are not generally difficult to find, yet even this may prove an acute embarrassment in the Spring if grass is late in coming, and winter feed for the dairy herd has come to an end. Whether these are valid reasons or not, many farmers in mixed farming areas seem to be con- vinced that, under circumstances prevailing in the recent past, the extra income to be derived from a few sheep in good years is insufficient to compensate for the nuisance that they create around the place. The alternative to a few sheep on a mixed farm is their maintenance on a scale sufficient to constitute one of the major enterprises of the farm. But on many farms in mixed farming areas sheep flocks have been entirely dispersed over the last decade or so, and although it is quite an easy matter to engineer a reduction in sheep numbers by a deliberate policy of making the production of sheep products relatively unprofitable, it is quite another matter to bring about the reintroduction of sheep on to farms reorganised to yield satisfactory results without them. The introduction of any major enterprise into an established farm organisation, either as an addition to, or in partial substi- tution for, existing integrated enterprises is bound to have many repercussions, not all of which are predictable, upon the existing organisation. Such a move is not likely to be undertaken except with the prospect of a clear gain, which may not necessarily however be a financial gain. On the finan- cial side, reorganisation to accommodate a new enterprise, or to expand an existing one, with the prospect of only a small increase in net income after tax, is unlikely to be regarded as sufficient inducement to undertake the considerable mana- gerial effort and risk involved in upsetting a farm organisation already running smoothly and profitably. The "maximising 21 of profits" may be of vital concern to a producer who regards his present level ofincome and standard of living as oppressively low, but it also involves the maximising of managerial effort, risk and worry, and is unlikely to make much appeal to a producer who,faced by the strong deterrent to additional effort that is represented by high rates of income tax, regards his existing level of income as reasonably adequate. A marked increase in income resulting from the introduc- tion of a sheep enterprise, but an increase that accrued mainly to the producer, would undoubtedly result in a rapid restor- ation of the sheep population in lowland mixed farming areas, although largely at the expense of other lines of production. But, even if the disincentive of current high rates of income tax did not exist, it cannot be assumed that the present level of profitability of sheep production in lowland districts, in com- parison with that of other lines of production open to farmers in these areas, is sufficient to result in any very rapid increase in the number of sheep maintained in these areas. Indeed, the restoration of the pre-war level of sheep population on lowland farms seems likely to be a lengthy one, in which the question of the maintenance of soil fertility may well play at least as important a part as considerations of financial gain. However, before any informed judgment can be passed on this matter, much more detailed knowledge of the economic circumstances involved in the many different systems of sheep management, in the various lowland farming type areas, will be required than is at present available.

22 COSTS AND RETURNS OF THE SHEEP ENTERPRISE IN THE UPLAND AREAS OF S.W. SOMERSET AND N.W. HEREFORD NOVEMBER 1950 to OCTOBER 1951 General THIS investigation forms the second in a series designed to cover, ultimately, the main systems of sheep management in the West of England. The previous survey,* carried out in the upland districts of S.W. Somerset in 1949/50 was confined to an investigation into the costs of rearing store lambs, and accordingly was limited to data relating to the breeding flock and the lamb crop. As the upland areas are of primary importance as a reser- voir of breeding and store sheep, upon which any expansion in lowland sheep flocks is largely dependent, it was decided to carry out a further investigation designed to ascertain the level of overall costs and returns for the sheep enterprise as a whole. The previous investigation, however, had shown quite clearly that farmers on the marginal land of the in S.W. Somerset are faced with an acute problem regarding breeding policy in their flocks. Present-day demand is for draft ewes that are rather larger and certainly more prolific than any of the native breeds available in that district, and for store sheep of greater size and earlier maturity. In attempting to meet this demand different breeders are adopting different breeding policies, and, as a result, a large number of crossbred sheep of different parentage are to be found on the Brendon Hills at the present time, resulting in some cases in an unfortunate mongrel- isation of sheep stocks, and a lack of uniformity in the sheep offered at the local store sales which acts as a deterrent to buyers, particularly large buyers from the lowlands. And cross- breeding obviously gives rise to problems of ewe-stock replace- ment. It has been suggested that the introduction of a breed of sheep such as the Clun Forest (or the Kerry Hill) on to the

* Store Lamb Production in the Upland Areas of S.W. Somerset. University of Bristol, Department of Agricultural Economics, Bristol I Province. By the same author. 23 Brendons might solve the breed problem in that area. The Clun is a sheep falling between hill and lowland types, with some of the characteristics of both, and, although not adapted to true hill conditions, does extremely well in the intermediate uplands of its native district. Not only is it a sheep for which there exists an excellent demand, but it has the great advantage in the context of Brendon Hill conditions that it can be main- tained as a self-contained flock. Accordingly, not only was the scope of the investigation broadened to cover the entire sheep enterprise, but it was extended to include (in addition to the two groups in S.W. Somerset), a group of farms in the upland area of N.W. Hereford, which maintained flocks of Clun sheep. It was hoped that in so doing not only would valuable infor- mation relating to sheep production in a rather different type of upland area become available, but that the results might indicate what possibilities exist for the development of the Clun type of sheep in the Brendon area. It is perhaps as well to say here at once that in this latter hope the investi- gation was doomed to disappointment; not only do consider- able differences of soil and climate exist between the two regions, but the systems of sheep management are so com- pletely dissimilar that it is quite impossible to infer that the much superior economic results attained by the Clun flocks in N.W. Hereford could equally be achieved by the same breed of sheep under Brendon Hill conditions. Equally there is no evidence to suggest that, with appropriate changes in management, results much more favourable than those at present realised on the Brendons could not be obtained with Cluns; the question can, however, only be resolved by direct experience of the performance of this type of sheep under the very different physical conditions of the Brendons. Fortun- ately such experience should in time be available, as at least one sizeable flock of Cluns, and one or two smaller units, have already appeared in this district.

THE SAMPLE Complete records were obtained for thirty-two farms, twelve in the and ten each in the Brendon and N.W. Hereford Groups. The Brendon Group originally con- tained two further flocks, but in both cases the farmer con- cerned sold out all sheep half-way through the investigation under circumstances that are interesting, and possibly signi- ficant. Both were small flocks of under fifty breeding ewes, and both were run for most of the year as "scavengers" 24 behind herds of cows primarily devoted to milk production. In both cases the reason for disposing of the sheep was on the grounds that they competed too keenly with the milking cows at times of the year when keep was short; in one case there was also the additional reason that disease among the sheep was taking an unduly heavy toll of their numbers. S. W. Somerset Uplands The S.W. Somerset uplands comprise the Brendon Hills and Exmoor which together form an isolated region at a general elevation of 800 to 1,000 feet in the Brendons, and 1,000 to 1,400 feet upon Exmoor. Although contiguous, and together forming part of a single natural formation, these two areas form distinct farming-type districts; the Brendon Hills are a typical marginal farming area, while Exmoor is a high moor- land hill farming area, eligible for the payment of Hill Sheep and Cattle Subsidies. Over the whole area of these uplands the soils are thin and stony and, especially upon Exmoor, much is podsolized and of poor quality. Exmoor, with a greater elevation and directly bordering the sea is more exposed to the prevailing winds, and has an average rainfall of 50 to over 60 inches, while on the Brendon Hills it ranges between 40 and 50 inches per annum. As a result of elevation and exposed situation, climatic condi- tions are unfavourable, the growing season commences late, and winter conditions arrive considerably earlier than in the lowlands only a few miles away. All factors of elevation, exposure, temperature, rainfall and soil conditions are dis- tinctly less favourable on Exmoor than upon the Brendon Hills. Both areas are primarily engaged upon store sheep and cattle rearing, although there has been some incursion since 1939, especially upon the Brendons, into milk-selling, which is generally undertaken side by side with store cattle rearing. The N.W. Hereford Uplands This upland area lies in a rough triangle between Hay, Knighton and Ludlow, and embraces the foothills of the Welsh mountains to the west and of Clun Forest to the north. It presents a strong contrast to the Brendon Hill region in nearly all aspects. The general elevation is somewhat lower, between 500 and 1,000 feet, and, lying as it does in the rain shadow of the Welsh mountains, and distant from the seaboard, the average rainfall is between 30 and 35 inches per annum, although a considerable proportion of the winter precipitation' 25 takes the form of snow. Although the winters are colder, what is more important from the point of view of sheep husbandry, they are much drier, while the summers are hotter. There is little of that peculiarly inimical combination of coldness with extreme wetness which is, unfortunately, so typical of winter conditions in the Somerset uplands. The quality of the soil is, generally speaking, considerably better in these Hereford uplands,and natural conditions more favourable. The Brendon Hill region takes the form of an upland plateau intersected with narrow, steep valleys; the N.W. Hereford area consists more of rolling hills, between which the valleys broaden out into considerable expanses which,in areas such as the Wigmore basin are almost indistinguishable from lowland areas. Again, compared with the Brendon Hills, over the whole of which the land is marginal, the farms in the N.W. Hereford uplands con- sist generally of a mixture of marginal type land on the sides and crests of the hills with varying proportions of medium quality land at the lower elevations, and, in some cases, a pro- portion of good quality land where the farms extend into the wider valley bottoms. Although stock-rearing is the primary occupation on all farms in this area, it does not form a homo- geneous type-of-farming district, and varying emphasis upon feeding of both cattle and sheep, and on the production of arable crops for sale is found from farm to farm. Indeed, in this area it would be quite easy to select groups of farms that are entirely marginal in type, or almost entirely lowland in type, and an intermediate group combining features of both. The group of farms included in this investigation are drawn mainly from the intermediate types offarms, and the remainder from the marginal type. ACREAGE AND CROPPING AND STOCKING DATA Acreage Data Data relating to the average area and rental value of the farms are given in Table 1, and a detailed analysis of cropping is shown for each of the three groups in Table A of the Appen- dix Total farm area averaged 524 acres in the Exmoor Group, 181 in the Brendons and 240 acres in the Hereford.Group. The distinctive character of the Exmoor hill farms is seen in the extent of the area of rough grazing, which, at an average of 315 acres per farm, accounts for 60 per cent of the total farm area, compared with 10 per cent in the Brendons and under 6 per cent in the Hereford group. In the great majority of cases the 26 TABLE 1 Average Acreage and Rent Per Farm at June 1951

• N.W. Hereford Brendons Exmoor ACREAGE: Acres % Acres % Acres % Tillage: Cereals . . 50.9 22.6 17-7 10.9 10.5 5.0 Roots and Green Fodder 21.6 9.6 13.3 8-2 17.9 8-6 Other Tillage . . 0-3 0.1 3.5 2.1 0.8 0.4 Total Tillage . . 72.8 32-3 34.5' 21-2 29.2 14.0 Grassland: Temporary Grass . . 88.2 39-1 63.3 38.9 90.3 43.2 Permanent Grass . . 64.7 28.6 65-1 39.9 89.6 42.8 Total Grassland . 152.9 67.7 128.4 78.8 179.9 86.0 Total Crops and Grass . 225.7 100.0 162.9 100.0 209.1 100.0 Rough Grazings* . . 13.9 6.1 18.1 11-1 314.7 150.5 TOTAL FARM ACREAGE . 239.6 106.1 181.0 111.1 523.8 250.5 Total Adjusted Acreage . 226.9 100.5 167.9 103.1 276.5 132.2 RENT: £ % £ % £ % Farmhouse . . . 21.8 7.5 l3'2 6.8 12-5 6-1 Cottages . . . 18.3 6.4 4.0 2.0 6.0 2.9 Buildings . . 21.8 7-5 10.4 5.3 10.0 4.9 Total . . . 61.9 21-4 27.6 14.1 28.5 13-9 Crops and Grass . . 226.8 78.3 163.4 83-6 136.5 66.4 Rough Grazings* . . 0.9 0.3 4.4 2-3 40.6 19-7 Total Farm Rent . . 289.6 100.0 195.4 100.0 205.6 100.0 AVERAGE RENT PER ACRE: S. d. s. d. s. d. Crops and Grass . . 20 1 20 1 13 1 Rough Grazings* . . 1 4 4 10 2 7

* Including waste and woodlands. rough grazings in the Exmoor area consist ofa fenced allotment of hill land in the sole occupation of the farmer, and it is usually but not invariably contiguous with the "in-ground ". Some however have no separate allotment, but share grazing rights upon commons which again may or may not adjoin the in- ground. The possession of this large area of rough grazings, the "hill ", is a most important feature of the Exmoor farms and, to a very considerable degree, determines farming policy in this district. In the other two groups the rough grazings are 27 of an entirely different character, without appreciable influence upon farm management policy, and consist of areas of steep or otherwise inaccessible land scattered throughout the farm itself. Cropping Excluding rough grazings, total crops and grassland aver- age 226 acres per farm in the Hereford Group, 163 in the Brendons and 209 acres in the Exmoor Group. Of this area, cereal crops account for nearly 23 per cent in the Hereford Group compared with 11 per cent in the Brendons, and for only 5 per cent in the Exmoor Group. In the two Somerset groups cereal crops are grown exclusively for feeding, with oats accounting for over 60 per cent of the total acreage, and barley and dredge corn, in roughly equal proportions, for the remainder. In the Hereford Group nearly a quarter of the cereal acreage is in wheat, grown mainly for sale, and another quarter in barley, some of which will also normally be sold off. Corn grown solely for feeding, namely oats, dredge and beans, however, still account for a higher proportion of total crops and grass than do all cereal crops in the other two groups. In the Hereford Group, root and green fodder crops, of which nearly one-quarter are cash crops, account for 9.6 per cent of total crops and grass compared with 8.2 and 8.6 per cent in the two Somerset groups; in these two groups only negligible quantities of potatoes are sold off the farm. The proportion of cultivated land devoted to roots etc. for stock feeding is closely comparable in all three groups, but there are some marked differences in the proportions of the different types of roots and green fodder grown. Mixed roots, consisting usually of turnips with kale or rape, but occasionally of a mix- ture of swedes with kale, account for one-third of the total in the Hereford Group, and clean swedes for another third. In the Somerset groups common turnips are by far the most im- portant crop in this category, accounting for over one-half of the total in the Brendons, and for nearly two-thirds in the Exmoor Group. Total tillage accounts for nearly 33 per cent of the total area of crops and grass in the Hereford group compared with 21 per cent in the Brendons and 14 per cent in the Exmoor Group. In the case of the two latter groups the total tillage undertaken during the year is however understated owing to the exclusion from tillage of first year seeds established by direct seeding. If this acreage is added to the tillage acreage, 28 the proportion of tillage in the Brendons Group is raised to 23.5 per cent, and to 19.2 per cent in the Exmoor Group. Temporary grassland accounts for approximately two-fifths of total crops and grass in the Hereford and Brendons groups, and for slightly more in the Exmoor Group. Permanent pas- ture accounts for 40 to 43 per cent in the two Somerset groups but for less than 29 per cent in the Hereford Group; total grass- land comprises 68 per cent of crops and grass in the Hereford Group, 79 per cent in the Brendons and 86 per cent in the Exmoor Group. Grassland for mowing amounts to 21 per cent of crops and grass in the Hereford Group, 19 per cent in the Brendons but to only 14 per cent in the Exmoor Group; of this mowing land nearly three-quarters in the Hereford and Brendon groups consists of temporary grass, but in the Ex- moor Group the proportion is only slightly above one-half. Rent The average rent per farm is £290 for the Hereford Group, £195 for the Brendons and £206 for the Exmoor farms. Gener- ally speaking, the farms in the Hereford Group are consider- ably better equipped with buildings of all types than are the Somerset farms, and the difference is particularly marked in the case of farm cottages. Total buildings in this group absorb 21.4 per cent of the total farm rent compared with approxi- mately 14 per cent in the two Somerset groups. Rough grazings in the Hereford Group frequently consist of land almost entirely waste, and the average value assessed for it was only is. 4d. per acre, compared with 4s. 10d. per acre in the Brendons Group; in the Exmoor Group, the hill land has an average estimated value of 2s. 7d. per acre but accounts for nearly 20 per cent of total farm rent compared with 2.3 per cent in the Brendons and only 0.3 per cent in the Hereford Group. The average rental value of crops and grass is 20s. ld. per acre in the Hereford and Brendon groups and 13s. id. in the Exmoor Group. Stocking at June 1st, 1951 In Table 2 the average stocking of the farms, per farm, and per 100 adjusted acres is given in summary form, and is set out in more detail in Table B of the Appendix. In considering the figures "per 100 adjusted acres" it must be borne in mind that this measurement consists of varying com- binations of crops and grassland with rough grazing which are together judged to be equivalent in productive capacity to 100 acres of crops and grass alone in the various groups. Thus, 29 TABLE 2 Stocking at June 1951; Average Number Per Farm and Per 100 Adjusted Acres

AVERAGE AVERAGE PER 100 PER FARM ADJUSTED ACRES N.W. N.W. Here- Bren- Ex- Here- Bren- Ex- ford dons moor ford dons moor CATTLE: No. No. No. No. No. No. COWS . 24.0 11.4 15.8 10.6 6.8 5.7 Other Cattle 41.8 32.1 40.4 18.4 19.1 14.6 Total Cattle . 65-8 43.5 56.2 29.0 25.9 20.3 SHEEP: Over One Year . 113 119 262 50 71 95 One Year and under 139 65 199 61 39 72 Total Sheep . 252 184 461 111 110 167 Horses . 2.3 2.4 5.8 1.0 1.4 2.1 Pigs 3.4 3.5 2.4 1.5 2.1 0.9 Poultry . 193 237 97 85 141 35 No. No. No. Cow-equivalent units per 100 adjusted acres 41.6 40.1 41.1 ditto, but excluding cash crops 45.8 40.3 41-2

100 adjusted acres in the Hereford Group consists of 991- acres of crops and grass together with 6 acres of rough grazing, in the Brendon Group of 97 acres of crops and grass plus 101 acres of rough grazing, while in the case of the Exmoor Group it consists of only 75-- acres of crops and grass with 114 acres of hill land. Although this concept of an adjusted acreage is satisfactory in the case of the Hereford and Brendon farms where the acre- age of rough grazing is only a small proportion of the total farm area, it is possible to have doubts as to its validity when applied to farms of the Exmoor type where the area of rough grazing is considerably greater than the area of crops and grass. Apart from doubts on theoretical grounds as to the validity of applying this adjustment to hill land, there are also formidable practical difficulties in assessing separately the relative values of hill land and in-ground. On the basis of relative rental values assessed by the farmers concerned, which is the basis of adjust- ment in all cases, one acre of" in -ground" in the Exmoor Group is estimated to be equivalent to 5 acres of the hill land. 30 If, however, the number of grazing units carried on hill land and in-ground grassland respectively is taken as the basis of adjustment, the appropriate proportion becomes one acre of in-ground to 3 acres of hill. If allowance is made for the undoubtedly smaller value of a week's grazing on the hill, and an intermediate figure of 1 acre of in-ground taken as equiv- alent to 4 acres of hill land, the average rental value of the hill land would require adjusting from 2s. 7d. to 3s. id. per acre, and that of the in-ground from 13s. id. to 12s. 4d. per acre; the effect upon the total adjusted farm acreage would be to raise it from 276-5 acres to 287-8 acres, an increase of 4-1 per cent on the estimate actually used in this report. Total cattle carried at June 1st, 1951, when sheep and cattle numbers are at their greatest, averaged 29-0 per 100 adjusted acres in the Hereford Group, 25-9 in the Brendons and 20-3 in the Exmoor Group. Owing to the circumstance that in the Hereford Group store cattle are generally sold at an earlier age (usually at 18 months) than is common practice in the Somerset groups, adult cattle other than breeding cows account for a considerably smaller proportion of the total in this group. Total sheep per 100 adjusted acres averaged 111 in the Hereford Group, 110 in the Brendons and 167 in the Exmoor Group; sheep over one year old however form a much smaller proportion of total sheep in the Hereford Group than in the other two. The proportion of total sheep to total cattle, on a cow-equivalent basis, is 1-06 to 1 in the Hereford Group, 1-26 to 1 in the Brendon and 1-81 to 1 in the Exmoor Group. Stock other than cattle and sheep are relatively unimportant and,in cow-equivalents, account for less than 9 per cent of total stock carried in all groups. It should perhaps be noted that a considerable proportion of the horses recorded in the Exmoor Group consist of riding ponies. The total number of cow-- equivalents carried averaged between 40 and 42 per 100 ad- justed acres in all groups. If however allowance is made for the area devoted to cash crops in the Hereford Group, the figures become 45-8 cow-equivalents in the Hereford Group compared with 40-3 in the Brendons and 41-2 per 100 adjusted acres, excluding cash crops, in the Exmoor Group. THE SHEEP ENTERPRISE To turn now to the specific subject of this enquiry, the sheep enterprise, it is necessary to consider briefly the general breed and management systems in the three groups. The terms in which farmers refer to sheep of various types varies 31 considerably from district to district, and the age at which a lamb is no longer referred to as such is also subject to a good deal of variation. To clarify this particular point, therefore, any sheep under one year of age is referred to throughout this report as a lamb.

N.W. Hereford It should be mentioned that the system of sheep manage- ment described for this group, unlike the two Somerset groups, is not necessarily typical of flocks generally in the N.W. Here- ford uplands. The farms selected in this group are,for example, all breeders of , while over the area as a whole Kerry Hill and Welsh cross sheep are also extensively maintained. Sheep management policy in the group of farms surveyed in N.W. Hereford is simple in design, but requiring for its execution a high degree of managerial competence. With the exception of one farm which kept, in addition to a main flock of Cluns, a secondary flock of Welsh cross ewes, all sheep in this group are pure-bred Clun Forests. The main aim of these flocks is the production of draft ewes, and virtually all ewes are drafted for sale as four-tooth breeding ewes. In most flocks, all ewe lambs except the smallest are put to ram as lambs, and in the second year those that lambed, together with those that failed to breed as lambs, are bred once more as two- tooth ewes and drafted for sale at the four-tooth stage. In order to maintain the number of suitable breeding ewes under these conditions of a very high rate of turn-over, the majority of farmers purchase some pure-bred ewe lambs or two-tooth ewes occasionally, and, on average, about 15 per cent of the breeding ewes in this group consist of purchased replacements. In this group the great majority of wether lambs are sold as such, and only a few are carried round and fed out as hoggs off grass in the following summer. More than one-half of wether lambs sold are graded, a proportion off grass from August onwards, but the majority off roots between December and March. Store wether lambs are sold mainly from Novem- ber onwards. Brendon Hills In contrast to the Hereford Group, both in the numbers of different breeds and crosses of sheep kept, and in the different systems of management practised, the Brendon Group presents a much more complex picture. A detailed account of the 32 breeds and crosses of sheep and of the mixed composition of many of the flocks in the Brendon Hills has been recorded in an earlier report,* and only an outline will be given here. The basic breed in this group is the Closewool, itself derived from an older breed of the district, the . In recent years however there has been a marked tendency for breeding policy to be directed away from the pure-bred Closewool to the production of a larger, more rapidly maturing type of sheep which is more in accordance with present-day require- ments. Pursuit of this policy has led individual breeders along many different lines, and, as a result, the sheep population in the Brendons at the present time is somewhat heterogeneous. The particular line of development followed tends to vary according to whether a self-contained or a flying-flock is maintained. Where a flying-flock policy is followed, the breeding flock commonly consists of Closewool or Crossbred (i.e. Closewool x Devon Longwool) ewes, mated to a blackfaced ram (usually Hampshire or ). Under this system of management nearly all lambs, ewe and wether, are sold off as lambs; some are graded off grass but the majority are sold off in the summer and autumn store sheep sales. As a general rule only unthrifty lambs are win- tered, and these are either graded or sold off as two-tooth stores after shearing in the following summer. Ewes are bred as long as they remain sound and, when culled, are fed out or• sold for fattening; replacements, varying in different farms from two-tooth to full-mouth ewes, are bought in. Where ewe flocks are self-contained a different approach is clearly necessary, and a number of different policies is adopted. In some cases Closewools are bred pure, or an Exmoor Horn ram may be used from time to time on the whole or part of the flock to maintain hardiness. Sometimes an original Closewool flock is crossed to a Devon Longwool to increase size while maintaining a white face on the ewes, and then a succession of Closewool rams are used, interspersed with Exmoor Horn and Devon Longwool in the hope of main- taining the increased size in the flock without losing too much hardiness. Another method sometimes adopted in the larger -flocks is to maintain pure-bred Closewool ewes and to breed the majority to a Closewool ram while the remainder, usually the poorer types of ewe, are crossed to a blackfaced ram. Some ofthe better type of ewe hoggs resulting from this crossing may

* Op cit. 33 be retained for breeding to a. blackfaced ram again. 'What- ever the method adopted, the objective is always the same; toi meet the demand for a bigger and earlier maturing sheep and at the same time to• prevent the breed of ewes from becoming too soft to withstand upland conditions, while ensuring a supply of whitefaced ewe lambs for flock replacement purposes.. In these self-maintained flocks all whitefaced ewe lambs are reared on, selection for the flock taking place at the two-tooth stage, and the surplus then sold. Draft ewes are usually sold as first-year full-mouth ewes, and, less commonly, as six-tooth ewes; cull ewes are mostly graded off grass. Generally speaking as few as possible of the wether lambs are wintered; some are graded off grass, or off roots in the autumn, but the majority ft are sold as stores in the summer and autumn sheep sales. In a few cases all lambs, both ewe and wether, may be wintered, and the wethers, together with surplus ewe hoggs are sold as two-tooth sheep in the following summer; in the majority of cases in most years, however, winter keep available does not permit of this policy being followed, even if it appears desirable to do so, and only unthrifty wether lambs are then retained for wintering.

Exmoor Climatic conditions on Exmoor largely restrict the type of • sheep that can be maintained to recognised hill breeds. Of the twelve farms in this group all but one have pure-bred Exmoor Horn sheep as their main flock, and eight farms kept no other breed of sheep. Two farms kept a few Closewool ewes in addition to a main Horn flock, and one farm crossed a pro- portion of the Horn ewes to a Closewool ram. In these cases; all of which relate to large flocks on farms with an above.. average proportion of in-ground, the Closewool ewes are Crossed to a Hampshire Down or ram along the lines noted in some Brendon Hill flocks, but, on Exmoor, none of the crossbred ewe hoggs are kept for breeding. Where Horn ewes are crossed to rams of a different breed it is usually the older and the poorer types of ewes that are used. On farms Where flocks are smaller there is less scope for this dual breeding policy, as it has the effect of reducing the number df pure-bred ewe hoggs available for selection for flock replace- ment purposes, and is liable to lead to deterioration in the quality of the ewe-stock if continued over a period of years. All flocks in the Exmoor Group are self-contained for ewe- stock; all pure-bred ewe lambs are kept on and selection for 34 the flock is :thade at the two-tooth stage,'those surplus to re- quirements- being sold in the autumn store sales. Ewes are generally drafted for sale after three crops of lambs, but in a number of cases they go out as six-tooth ewes. Cull ewes unfit for breeding are usually sold out for fattening, although a few may be graded off the farm. In contrast to the Brendon Group, the aim of most farmers on Exmoor is to winter as many as possible of the wether lambs as well as the ewe lambs. How- ever, much depends upon the amount of winter keep available, and when this is short, the more forward wether lambs are sold out in the autumn store sales, and only the poorer ones are Wintered. Wether lambs that have been wintered are normally sold as two-tooth stores in the following autumn, although, Under the stimulus of higher wool prices the practice is begin- ning to develop on some farms of keeping these wether sheep on the farm for another year or even longer. On a few farms in the bleakest part of the moor, where there is little sheltered in-ground, and where it is sometimes necessary to winter the ewe lambs off the farm, all saleable wether lambs are sold as store lambs in the autumn, and only the unsaleable ones are wintered. The Year 1950/51 Owing to the fact that sheep must live out-doors all the year round, they are rather more directly affected by weather conditions than is the case with other types of stock; the twelve months covered by this investigation, November 1950 to October 1951, produced an extreme contrast in weather con- ditions at different periods of the year. In the upland district of S.W. Somerset a general shortage of roots for folding was experienced during the winter months owing to crop failures, but despite this, or, as was sometimes suggested, because of this, the breeding ewes wintered very well on most farms and were in good condition at lambing time. And they had need to be for the lambing period encountered at its very worst that peculiarly unfavourable combination of cold and extreme wetness so typical of winter conditions in these parts. Rainfall was so heavy and prolonged that even On what is normally a dry bank any object in contact with the ground immediately became, and remained, the centre of a pool of water. In such conditions, described by one farmer with fifty years' experience of shepherding on the moor as quite the worst in his recollection, was the Iamb crop of 1951 -dropped. Conditions on the Brendon Hills were.not quite so (35 bad as on Exmoor as lambing commences earlier there, and it was later in the lambing season that the weather became really atrocious. Although lambs generally speaking were strong at birth it is little wonder that many succumbed; losses among lambs were very heavy and the ewes were short of milk. For- tunately the summer of 1951 was exceptionally favourable for sheep, especially upon the hill land; flocks remained remark- ably free from disease and at the end of the summer were healthy and forward in condition. Experience in the N.W. Hereford uplands followed the same general pattern: here however root crops for winter feeding were adequate, but lambing was difficult owing to adverse weather conditions and the results were disappointing. v Owing to the provision made as a matter of normal practice in this district for the feeding of hay and corn to ewes at lambing there was however no general shortage of milk among the ewes. The summer proved very favourable for sheep, which came to the autumn sales in excellent condition.

THE INVESTIGATION Presentation of Results This investigation consists primarily of a record of the total costs incurred for the twelve months from November 1st, 1950, to October 31st, 1951, in respect of all sheep maintained on the farms surveyed, and these costs are related to the total pro- •duction (output) of the enterprise. The final result is therefore, for each group, an aggregate figure of total costs and total production, and the question of a common basis which will permit of comparison of results between the groups, and be- tween sub-groups within the major groups, arises. The sheep enterprise in upland areas gives rise to a con- siderable variety of sale products, and no one end-product is of sufficient importance to make it possible to maintain, with any semblance of realism, that all other products are by- products. Costs and production cannot therefore be related to any single end-product to give, for example, the average cost of draft ewes, or store lambs as a basis for comparison. Neither is it possible to accept the breeding ewe as a basis for calculations of cost and production that would be comparable between groups. Breeding ewes represent a different propor- tion of total sheep both between groups and between individual farms within the same group, while sheep other than ewes are not distributed in equal proportions between various age- 36 groups, or by sex. Thus, for any given acreage of land devoted to sheep, the smaller the number of breeding ewes maintained the greater will be the number of other sheep, and the higher will be the level of costs and production when calculated per ewe. Production per ewe in a sheep enterprise where all the Iambs are sold off as store lambs before the winter will be con- siderably lower than where the lamb crop is kept round and sold out as two-tooth hoggs; in the former case however it will be possible to carry more breeding ewes on any given acreage, and, although production per ewe will be lower, production per acre may well be higher. It seems clear therefore that the most realistic approach that will permit of comparison between flocks where different systems of management are involved, with varying proportions of breeding ewes to other sheep, and varying proportions of other sheep differing in age, sex and condition, is on the basis of the most effective utilisation of land resources devoted wholly to the sheep enterprise. The question of what area of land on any particular farm can,in fact, be considered to be solely devoted to sheep is more difficult to ascertain under some type-of-farming systems than under others. Under upland conditions it is more straight- forward than for many types of lowland farming. The acreage of roots for folding to sheep is self-identified, and presents no difficulty. Similarly, if the per acre yields of other home-grown foodsfed to sheep are known, the acreage necessary to provide those foods can be ascertained with a considerable degree of accuracy. It is however with regard to the area of grassland utilised, which, for sheep is by far the most important form of land utilisation, that the biggest possibility of error exists. Questions arising in this determination involve considerations of the relative values of grassland and rough grazings, of the proportions of annual grassland production accounted for by the hay crop as against the aftermath, of the relative grazing capacity of different classes of stock, and of the same class of stock at different ages, of the relative value of a week's grazing at different times of the year, and for different classes of stock. Further problems arise where certain classes of stock, e.g. dairy cows or fattening lambs, have first access to the best grazing, while other stock follow behind to clear up; some classes of stock may be hand-fed at grass, or run back to grass from a root-fold, while other animals of the same class are entirely dependent upon grazing; in all these cases the value of a week's grazing cannot be considered comparable; without 37 adjustment. Subject to the errors to which any attempt to adjust for any or all of these differences is inevitably exposed, a reasonable estimate of the proportion of grassland devoted to any class of stock can however be made. The basis of calculation of the results of this investigation, which is used throughout the report is therefore: "Per 100 adjusted acres devoted to the sheep enterprise". To avoid con- stant and wearisome repetition of this unwieldy phrase, this measure is referred to throughput the remainder of this report in both text and tables as simply "Per 100 acres ", but the concept, unless specifically stated to the contrary, is invariably as set out in full above. The distribution between different forms of utilisation, of the land devoted to sheep, is set out in Table 3.

TABLE 3 Analysis of Land Devoted to the Sheep Enterprise; Average Per 100 Adjusted Acres

N.W. Hereford Brendons Exmoor CROPS: Acres Acres Acres (1) Roots and Green Fodder: (a) Folded . . 12.0 11.9 • 9-9 (b) Hand-fed . . 1.9 1.4 0.7 Total . 13.9 13-3 10.6 (2) Corn 1.6 Total Crops 15.5 13.3 10.6 'GRASSLAND: 6.6 (1) Hay Plus Aftermath . 0.3 0.3, (2) Silage Plus Aftermath . - 0.8 - • (3) Pasture . 77-2 82.4 64.8 Total Grassland . 83.8 83-5 65.1 Total Crops and Grass 99.3 96.8 75.7 ROUGH GRAZING . 7.6 11.8 113.9 Total Acreage 106.9 108.6 189.6 "Total Adjusted Acreage 100.0 100.0 100.0

Folded roots accounted for about 12 acres per 100 acres in the Hereford and Brendon groups and for 10 acres in the Exmoor .Group. Hand-fed roots consumed by sheep required 38 JOT their production 1-9 acres in the Hereford Group, 1-4 acres in the Brendons and 0.7 acres in the Exmoor Group. Corn, which was fed to sheep only in the Hereford Group, accounts for 1-6 acres per 100 acres after allowing for the value of the straw. Total crops for sheep are thus responsible, per 100 acres, for 15-5 acres in the Hereford Group, 13-3 in the Brendons and 10-6 acres in the Exmoor Group. Hay was fed heavily in the Hereford Group, and, together with the aftermath grazing available accounts for 6-6 acres per 100 acres. Land used for the production of hay and silage was very small in the Brendons -and negligible in the Exmoor Group. Pasture land, the grazing from which is solely absorbed by sheep, amounts to 77-2 acres of grassland plus 7-6 acres of rough grazings per 100 acres in the Hereford Group, 82-4 plus 11-8 acres in the Brendons, and 64-8 acres of in-ground grassland plus the equivalent in ad- justed acres of 113-9 acres of hill land in the Exmoor Group. - The proportion of the total farm area, on an adjusted acre- -age basis, devoted solely to sheep averaged 36-4 per cent in the Hereford Group, 39-7 per cent in the Brendons and 551 per cent in the Exmoor Group. Valuation of Sheep The average valuation of sheep, and of sheep equipment at October 31st, 1951 is set out in Table 4. Some explanation of the basis of valuation is necessary if the calculation of the production of the sheep.enterprise, dealt with in the next section, is to be fully understood. During the year under review the general price level for store sheep in- creased considerably, and the average market value of breeding ewes was roughly 20s. per head higher at the end of the year than at the beginning. The result of valuing breeding stock at market prices ruling at the time of opening and closing valu- ation would be to introduce a considerable element of capital appreciation into the assessment of what is intended to be current production. No farmer can in fact realize the higher prices for breeding ewes without discontinuing in business as a sheep rearer, and in an economic investigation of this type it is necessary to adopt the point of view that the enterprise investi- gated is of a continuing nature. Furthermore, the increase in the capital value of the breeding stock arises directly from the increased value of the sale-products that it produces, and, as the increased production arising from higher market values of sheep and wool are already recorded in current sales, the effect of adding-in the increased capital value of the breeding stock 39 is to inflate production by accounting twice over for what are merely two different aspects of the same thing.

TABLE 4

Valuation of Sheep and Sheep Equipment at October 31st, 1951. Per 100 Acres, as Per Cent of Total Sheep Valuation, and Average Value Per Head

N.W. Hereford Brendons Exmoor AVERAGE VALUATION No. £ No. £ No. PER 100 ACRES: Breeding Ewes . 171.0 1430.8 164.6 1071.3 148.1 905.0 Stock Rams 3.8 59.8 4.5 51.0 4-3 49.1 Lambs 138.9 826.1 102-1 544.7 122.8 553.8 Other Sheep 5.9 37.8 4.6 27.6 32.4 183.5 Total Sheep . 319.6 2354.5 275.8 1694.6 307.6 1691-4 Sheep Equipment - 171.1 - 88.2 - 63.8 TOTAL - 2525.6 - 1782.8 - 1755.2

Per Cent of Total Sheep by Value

0/0 Breeding Ewes 60.8 63.2 53.5 Stock Rams . 2-5 3.0 2.9 Lambs . 35.1 32.2 32.7 Other Sheep . 1.6 1-6 10.9 Total Sheep 100.0 100.0 100.0

Average Value Per Head • £ s. d. s. d. £ s. d. Breeding Ewes 8 7 4 610 2 6 2 2 Stock Rams . 15 18 1 1168 11 10 6 Lambs . 5 19 0 5 6 9 4102 Other Sheep . 6 7 4 518 8 513 3

For the reasons outlined above, the breeding stock, namely ewes and ewe lambs retained for flock replacement purposes, have been valued both in the opening and closing valuation at a value per head determined by averaging the market values ruling at the beginning and end of the year. In the case of sur- plus ewe lambs and all types of wether sheep and lambs, which are sale products of the sheep enterprise, the same consider- ations do not apply. A producer can freely choose whether to sell this type of sheep at ruling market prices, or whether to 40 keep them in anticipation of gaining further profit by so doing; but whichever course he takes the position of the sheep enter- prise as a continuing business is not affected. All sheep, other than breeding ewes and essential flock replacements, have therefore been valued at the level of market prices prevailing when the valuations were made. In Table 4 the valuation of sheep has been taken at the time of the closing valuation, as values at that time were more in accordance with the level of prices, especially wool prices, and costs during the year sur- veyed than was the case at the time of the opening valuation. The total valuation of sheep at October 31st, 1951, when the flocks had been made up for the ensuing year and the sales of store sheep completed, averaged £2,355 per 100 acres in the Hereford Group, £1,695 in the Brendons Group and £1,691 per 100 acres in the Exmoor Group. The total number of sheep per 100 acres was 320, 276 and 308 respectively in the three groups, and clearly the higher value of sheep in the Here- ford Group is not entirely a matter of greater numbers per 100 acres. The average value per head of all classes of sheep is considerably higher in the Hereford Group than in the two Somerset groups, and average values are appreciably higher in the Brendons than in the Exmoor Group. The most impor- tant difference relates to the breeding ewes which, at £8 7s. 4d.. per ewe in the Hereford Group averaged nearly £2 per head more than in the Brendon Group and £2 5s. Od. higher than in the Exmoor. By value, breeding ewes averaged 60-8 per cent of the total valuation of sheep in the Hereford Group, 63-2 per cent in the Brendon Group but only 53-5 per cent in the Exmoor Group. Lambs accounted for between 32 and 35 per cent of the total valuation in each group, but these figures require some qualifi- cation. In the figures in Table 4 the number and value recorded for breeding ewes includes all ewe lambs that were mated as lambs, and subsequently proved to be in lamb, and these ewe lambs are not therefore recorded as lambs in the table. In the Hereford Group, where breeding from lambs was practised by all but two of the ten farms, over 25 per cent of the ewes. recorded are, in fact, ewe lambs. In the Brendon Group five farms bred from ewe lambs, but only two by intent, and only in small numbers; two flocks in the Exmoor Group contain a few ewe lambs that" stole" the ram. On a comparable bastis, therefore, ewes, excluding all ewe lambs, account for about 50 per cent of the total valuation of sheep in the Hereford Group, and lambs, including those bred, for 46 per cent of the total.. 41 „” Other" sheep are important only in the Exmoor Group -where they account for over 10 per cent of the total valuation. These sheep consist, apart from odd cull ewes in all groups, almost entirely of two-tooth wethers in the Hereford and Brendon groups, with the addition of a few ewe hoggs of the same age in the latter group. In the Exmoor group over 95 per cent of other sheep consist of wethers, of which about 'one-quarter were four-tooths. As far as the actual size of the breeding flock is concerned, over three-quarters of the flocks in the Hereford Group are between 100 and 200 ewes per farm, and none above 250 ewes. In the Brendon Group the majority of flocks are also between 100 and 200 breeding ewes, but with one flock above 250 and one below 50 ewes. In the Exmoor Group the majority have 'over 200 ewes per flock, and two flocks over 300; no flock in this group had less than 100 ewes. _ In Table 5 the distribution by age groups of the breeding ewes is set out. TABLE 5 Distribution of Breeding Ewes by Age Groups: Per Cent of Total Breeding Ewes: November 1950

N.W. Hereford Brendons Exmoor. BREEDING EWES: Ewe Lambs . 25.4 3.3 0.3 Two-tooth Ewes 60.4 28.8 34.1 Four-tooth Ewes 7.8 24-1 26.3 • Six-tooth Ewes 4-3 23-3 26-3 Full-mouth Ewes 2-1 20.5 13.0 Total Ewes 100.0 100.0 100.0

• Apart from full-mouth ewes in the Exmoor Group, and ignoring ewe lambs accidentally bred,flocks in both the Somer- set groups tend to be maintained in regular age groups. The lower proportion of full-mouth ewes in the Exmoor Group results from the annual drafting of these ewes for sale, and, while a number of farms in the Brendon Group with self- maintained flocks follow this practice, the effect is offset by other farms in this group which buy in their ewe flock replace- ments and breed them for as long as they remain sound. In .contrast, 60 per cent of the ewes in the Hereford Group fall in the two-tooth category, while a further 25 per cent are ewe 42 lambs; of the sheep in the older categories, a considerable pro- portion consist of Welsh Cross ewes maintained by one farm in this group. Taking all sheep together, less than 10 per cent on hand in the Hereford Group at the time of the opening valuation were older than two-tooths, compared with 35 per cent in the Exmoor Group and 42 per cent in the Brendons.

• - As a result of the-differences outlined above, the total number of sheep per 100 acres is 16 per cent higher in the Hereford Group, but their.total value was 39 per cent greater; the'total value of sheep in the two Somerset groups was the same, but numbers of sheep per 100 acres were 10 per cent lower in the Brendon group. The differences noted in the -average value per head of breeding ewes between the groups is _almost certainly a fairly accurate reflection of relative market demand for the different breeds and types of breeding ewes maintained in the groups, and the higher value of wether lambs and hoggs in the Hereford Group reflects the greater weight and earlier maturing qualities of the Clun breed; conversely the considerably lower average valtie of lambs and hoggs in the Exmoor Group is a measure not only of the smaller size of these animals but of the much harder conditions under which they are reared. Smaller sheep can however be kept thicker on the ground than larger, but the main point to be borne in mind in this connection is that it is extremely doubtful whether •a breed larger and less hardy than the Exmoor Horn could be kept at all in that district. Sheep Equipment A detailed valuation of sheep equipment is set out, per 100 acres, in Table 6. The total valuation of equipment in the Hereford Group at £171 per 100 acres was nearly twice as high as in the Brendons Group,and not far short ofthree times as great as in the Exmoor Group. The main differences lie in the value of equipment associated with the feeding of sheep, and especially of hand- feeding; thus the combined value of hay racks and feeding troughs in the Hereford Group is nearly £80 per 100 acres compared with less than £10 in the Somerset groups, while the value of folding gear is nearly £20 per 100 acres greater in the Hereford Group. The valuation of total equipment, ex- pressed as a percentage of the total value_ of sheep, is 7.3 per cent in the Hereford Group, 5-2 per cent in the Brendons and 3.7 per cent in the Exmoor Group. The total valuation of sheep, together with their equipment, 43 TABLE 6 Valuation of Sheep Equipment: Average Per 100 Acres and as Per Cent of Total

N.W. HEREFORD BRENDONS EXMOOR Per 100 Per Per 100 Per Per 100 Per acres cent acres cent acres cent ox EQUIPMENT: £ Folding gear: (a) Netting & stakes 23.3 13.6 19.0 21.5 15.4 24-1 (b) Hurdles 25.6 15.0 10.3 11-7 14.1 22.1 Total . 48.9 28.6 29.3 33.2 29.5 46.2 Hay racks . 66.2 38.7 4-5 5.1 4.1 6.4 Feeding troughs . 13.0 7.6 4.0 4-5 1.5 2.4 Clipping gear . 30.1 17.6 44.4 50.4 22.0 34.5 Other equipment 12.9 7-5 6.0 6.8 6.7 10.5 Total Equipment . 171.1 100.0 88.2 100.0 63.8 100.0 averaged £2,526 per 100 acres in the Hereford Group, which is approximately £760, equal to 30 per cent, higher than the cor- responding figures for the two Somerset groups; the difference compared with the Brendon Group is due mainly to the greater number of sheep carried per 100 acres, partly to the higher value per head, and, to a much lesser extent, to the greater amount of equipment provided; compared with the Exmoor Group the difference is primarily due to the higher average value per head of all categories of sheep in the Hereford Group.

Production of the Sheep Enterprise The total production of the sheep enterprise consists of two distinct but related categories, production of sheep, and other items of production arising from the enterprise. Production of sheep, as here defined, consists of the amount by which the closing valuation of sheep plus sales of sheep exceeds the opening valuation plus purchases. Other production consists of wool sales and, in the case of the Exmoor Group, receipts in respect of the Hill Sheep Subsidy. In Table 7 the items entering into the calculation of pro- duction are set out as averages per 100 acres for each of the three groups. 44 •

TABLE 7 Production of the Sheep Enterprise; Average Per 100 Acres

N.W. Hereford Brendons Exmoor SHEEP: £ £ £ Closing Valuation (C.V.) 2354-5 1694-6 1691.4 Sales . . 1485-0 819-1 661.3 (A) Sales and C.V. . 3839.5 2513-7 - 2352-7 Opening Valuation (0.V.) 2243-3 1643-1 1568-3 Purchases . 211-8 112-6 55-2 (B) Purchases and O.V. 2455-1 1755-7 1623-5 Production of Sheep— (A)less (B) . 1384-4 758.0 729-2 OTHER PRODUCTION: Sales of Wool 478-3 492.9 600-4 Hill Sheep Subsidy . — — 413 Total Production 1862.7 1250-9 1370-9

PRODUCTION OF SHEEP Production of sheep may be summarised as follows:

PER 100 ACRES Hereford Brendon Exmoor Group Group Group

Valuation increase 111-2 51-5 123-1 Net sales of sheep 1273.2 706-5 606.1 Production of sheep 1384.4 758-0 729-2

The outstanding feature of these results is the very high level of net sales in the Hereford Group which, together with the valuation increase, gives a production of sheep of £1,384 per 100 acres, a figure 82 per cent greater than in the Brendon and 90 per cent higher than in the Exmoor Group. Although production of sheep is lowest in the Exmoor Group, the position is altered when sales of wool are brought into account. Total wool sales in this group at £600 per 100 acres are more than £100 higher than in either of the other two 45 groups, while the Hill Sheep Subsidy, payable only in the Ex- moor Group, adds ,further £41 per-100 acres to total produc- tion in this group. However, despite lower wool sales, total production in the Hereford Group at £1,863 is some £610 greater than in the Brendons and nearly £500 per 100 acres higher than in the Exmoor Group.

ANALYSIS OF PRODUCTION Valuation Changes The total valuation of sheep in all groups was higher in the closing valuation than in the opening and, in the case of the Hereford and Brendon groups, this is primarily due to an in- crease in the average value per head of store lambs at the end of the year, although in both cases there was also a slight rise in their numbers. In the Exmoor Group however the changes are of a more complex nature. Breeding ewes increased in number and value by 2 per cent, and there was an increase of 6 per cent in the total value of lambs retained, despite a fall of 5 per cent in numbers. The main change however relates to "other " sheep, two- and four-tooth wethers, which increased by nearly 40 per cent in numbers and by over 50 per cent in total value and, as a result, accounted for nearly 11 per cent of total sheep numbers in the closing valuation compared with under 8 per cent in the opening. In point of fact however this increase in the number of wether sheep retained is not distri- buted over the entire sample of farms in this group, but is mainly confined to three or four of the larger farms. It repre- sents, for these farms at least, a deliberate change in policy, enendered by higher wool prices in 1951, towards the building up of flocks of wether sheep to run on the hill land. The in- crease in the valuation of sheep in the Hereford and Brendori Groups, both in its nature and extent, is thus of less significance than in the Exmoor Group, where the increase accounts for nearly 17 per cent of total production compared with between 7 and 8 per cent in the other two groups. Lambing Data - Sales of sheep under the systems of management practised in upland areas are governed mainly by the size of the lamb crop produced. Before proceeding to an examination of the level of sheep sales in the three groups some analysis of the lambing results" therefore appears desirable. The. main data relating to the 1951 lambing season, as affecting:both ewes and lambs, are set out in Table 8: 46 , TABLE 8 Analysis of Lambing Data: 1951 Lamb Crop

N.W. Hereford Brendons Exmoor BREEDING EWES: No. % No. % No. % No. of Ewes put to Ram . 1,400 100.0 1,120 100.0 2,663 100.0 No. Died Before Lambing 18 1.3 33 2.9 26 1.0 No. Alive at Lambing 1,382 98-7 1,087 97-1 2,637 99.0 Barren Ewes . 29 2-1 34 2.9 91 3.4 No. of Ewes Lambing 1,353 96.6 1,053 94.2 2,546 95.6 LAMBS: Total No. of Lambs Born 1,823 100.0 1,344 100.0 n.a. No. Born Dead* . 116 6.4 201 15.0 n.a. No. Born Alive 1,707 93.6 1,143 85.0 2,659 No. Died Since Lambing . 81 4.4 119 8.8 88

No. of Lambs Reared . 1,626 89.2 1,024 76.2 2,571 — , No. No. No. No. of Lambs Born per 100 Ewes Lambing . 134.7 127.6 n.a. No. of Lambs Born per 100 Ewes put to Ram . 130.2 1200. n.a. No. of Lambs Reared per 100 Ewes put to Ram . 116.1 91.4 96.5

Dead at birth, or dying within one or two days.

In the Hereford Group, on most of the farms investigated, the main lambing period falls in March, and in April for the remainder. In the Brendon Group about 15 per cent of lambs were dropped in late February, nearly two-thirds in March and the remainder in April; a few ewes in a Closewool x Dorset Down flock lambed down in December. On Exmoor the bulk of the lambing takes place in March on those farms with shel- tered in-ground, but on the more exposed farms it is almost entirely confined to April. As previously indicated weather conditions at lambing were generally very bad in all areas, while for part of the period, especially upon Exmoor, they were atrocious. The figures in Table 8 relating to the number of ewes put to ram call for some explanation. Included here are all ewes, two-tooth and older, that were originally put to ram, plus the -ewe lambs that proved to be in-lamb; ewe lambs that were 47 mated but failed to breed are excluded. A considerable pro- portion of ewe lambs, one-third or more, that are mated do not normally breed, and the inclusion of all ewe lambs that actually went to ram would lead to misleading results in the case of the Hereford Group. Of total ewes put to ram as defined above, between 1 per cent and 3 per cent in the three groups died before lambing, and between 2 and 31 per cent proved to be barren; the incidence of deaths was highest in the Brendons and of barreners in the Exmoor Group. For every 100 ewes put to ram, 96-6 lambed down in the Hereford Group, 94-2 in the Brendons and 95-6 in the Exmoor Group. The total number of lambs born, alive and dead, is not available for the Exmoor Group, but total births per 100 ewes lambing averaged 135 in the Hereford Group and 128 in the Brendons, while births per 100 ewes put to ram averaged 130 and 120 respectively. Of total lambs born, 6-4 per cent in the Hereford Group and 15-0 per cent in the Brendons were born dead, i.e. were dead at birth or dying within one or two days, while lambs dying at a later stage account for a further 4-4 per cent of the total born in the former and 8-8 per cent in the latter group. Total deaths among lambs thus averaged 10-8 per cent of the total born in the Hereford Group, and no less than 23-8 per cent in the Brendon Group. As a result, only 91 lambs were reared in the latter group for every 100 ewes put to ram compared with 116 in the Hereford Group; the corresponding figure for the Exmoor Group was 961 lambs reared per 100 ewes. Results for the 1950 lambing season are available for an almost identical sample of farms in the Bren- don Hills and Exmoor, and the number of lambs reared per 100 ewes put to ram for that year was 101 in the former group and 104 in the latter. Total lambs born in 1950 per 100 ewes put to ram averaged 123 in the Brendon Group and of these 18.2 per cent were born dead, or died at a later stage. The total lamb crop in the Brendons was thus slightly lower in 1951 than in 1950 and losses were considerably higher. In view of the very heavy but unrecorded losses among lambs in the Exmoor Group in 1951 it is clear that the lamb crop must have been a very good one, and was probably equal to at least 130 lambs born per 100 ewes lambing, a figure not far short of that achieved by the Clun ewes in the Hereford Group. In comparing these figures, however, it should be borne in mind that 85 per cent of the ewes in the Clun flocks are two-tooth ewes and ewe lambs, whereas two-thirds of the ewes in both the Somerset Groups are four-tooth sheep or 48 older. The lambing percentage achieved by this group of young Clun Forest ewes under upland conditions is naturally con- siderably less than that normally reached by more mature ewes of this breed under lowland conditions. As a result of differences in the lambing percentages achieved, and in the number of ewes carried per 100 acres, the number of lambs reared and available for sale or for flock replacement purposes averaged 199 in the Hereford Group, 150 in the Brendons and 143 per 100 acres in the Exmoor Group, and it is to these differences in the numbers of lambs reared that a considerable proportion of the differences in the level of sheep sales per 100 acres in the groups is ultimately due. Although the size of the lamb crop is the primary deter- minant, the level of sheep sales is also affected, though to a much lesser degree, by the extent to which sheep are purchased. Purchases of Sheep The average expenditure upon purchases of sheep is set out in Table 9. TABLE 9 Purchases of Sheep: Average Expenditure Per 100 Acres, Per Cent of Total, and Average Price Paid Per Head

N.W. Hereford Brendons Exmoor PER 100 ACRES: No. £ No. No. £ Breeding Ewes 19.9 167.4 15.1 90.6 - - Rams 1.2 29.4 1.1 12.4 1.6 22.5 Lambs 4.5 15.0 3.1 13-1 Hoggs 2.4 9.6 3.3 19.6 Total Sheep 25.6 211.8 18.6 112.6 8.0 55.2 PER CENT OF TOTAL: Breeding Ewes . 77-7 79.0 81-5 80.5 Rams 4.8 13.9 5.6 11.0 19.3 40.9 Lambs 17.5 7.1 39.3 23.7 Hoggs 12.9 8.5 41.4 35.4 Total Sheep 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 AVERAGE PER HEAD: Breeding Ewes . . 8.40 5.98 Rams 24.34 11.79 14-71 Lambs 3-35 4.18 Hoggs 4.00 5.95

In all, over 25 sheep were purchased per 100 acres in the Hereford Group at a total cost of £212, approximately 19 49 sheep in the Brendon Group for £113, but only 8 per 100 acres in the Exmoor Group at a total cost of £55. Over 80 per cent of total sheep bought in both the Hereford and Brendon groups were ewes or, in the former case, ewe lambs for breed- ing. The rate of turnover of the flocks in the Hereford Grou is such that, allowing for home-bred ewe lambs that prove un- suitable for breeding, it is not possible in many cases to main- tain either the numbers or the quality of the flocks without some outside purchases. Over two-thirds of the farms in this group bought some replacements during the year under review; mostly these were two-tooth ewes, but some ewe lambs were also bought and, in total, these replacements amounted to 11 per cent of all breeding ewes in the group as a whole. Pur- chases of replacements were probably somewhat greater than normal in 1951 owing to the relatively poor lambing results in that year. In the Brendon Group half the flocks are self- maintained for ewe stock, and all purchases of ewes were made by the remaining farms in the group whose normal method of replacement is by purchase. The ewes purchased in this group are almost equally divided between two-tooth, four-tooth and full-mouth ewes, although no farm bought ewes of more than one age group. The average price paid for ewes was £8 8s. Od. for two-tooth ewes in the Hereford Group and £6 for ewes of all ages in the Brendon Group. All flocks in the Exmoor group are self-maintained for ewe stock, and no ewes at all were purchased. One or more rams were purchased by four out of five farms in the Hereford Group, three out of five in the Brendons and by all farms in the Exmoor Group. Just under one-third of all stock rams were replaced in the Hereford Group,just over one-third in the Exmoor, but less than one-quarter in the Brendon Group. The average price paid per ram was £24 7s. Od. in the Hereford Group, £11 16s. Od. in the Brendons and £14 14s. Od. in the Exmoor Group, and total expenditure per 100 acres upon rams was £29.4, £12-4 and £22-5 respect- ively. Purchases of lambs, other than for breeding purposes, occurred in the Hereford and Exmoor Groups, but expendi- ture under this heading was small and confined to one or two farms in both groups. Some purchases ofhoggs to feed out were made by one or two farms in the Brendon and Exmoor Groups in the autumn of 1951 to help consume an exceptionally abun- dant crop of roots.

50 Sales of Sheep In Table 10 a summary of sheep sales per 100 acres is set out for the three groups.

TABLE 10 Sales of Sheep: Average Number and Value per 100 Acres and as Per Cent of Total Sales

N.W. Hereford Brendons Exmoor SALES PER 100 ACRES: No. No. No. Ewes 93.9 917.8 46.2 256.6 42.0 218.0 Lambs 72.5 442-7 77.9 401-2 28-3 119.0 Hoggs 6.9 51.4 25.3 154-1 50.4 295.1 Rams 2.8 68.7 1-1 6.2 2-5 28.9 Casualties . 1.2 4.4 0.3 1.0 0.2 0.3 Total Sales 177-3 1485.0 150.8 819.1 123-4 661-3 Per Cent of Total: % A % Ewes . 53.0 61.8 30.6 31.4 34-1 33.0 Lambs 40.9 29.8 51-7 49.0 22-9 18.0 Hoggs 3.9 3-5 16.8 18.8 40.8 44.6 Rams 1-5 4.6 0-7 0-7 2.0 4-3 Casualties . 0.7 0.3 0.2 0-1 0.2 0.1 Total Sales 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

The total number of sheep sold averaged 177 per 100 acres in the Hereford Group, 151 in the Brendons and 123 in the Exmoor Group. Sales of draft ewes accounted for over 90 per 100 acres in the Hereford Group compared with less than half that number in the two Somerset groups. Sales of lambs averaged between 70 and 80 per 100 acres in the Hereford and Brendon Groups but only 28 in the Exmoor Group which, however, sold 50 hoggs per 100 acres compared with 25 in the Brendon Group and less than 7 in the Hereford. The most important sale products in the Hereford Group are ewes, followed by lambs; in the Brendon Group it is lambs, followed by ewes, while in the Exmoor Group sales of hoggs are the most important, followed by ewes. In Table lithe data summarized in the previous table is set out in greater detail. Total draft ewes sold in the Hereford Group averaged 91 per 100 acres, equal to no less than 53 per cent of total ewes put to ram at the beginning of the year, a rate of turnover that •51 TABLE, 11

Sales of Sheep: Average Number and Value of Sheep Per 100 Acres, and Per Cent of Total Numbers Sold

N.W. HEREFORD BRENDONS EXMOOR Numbers Value Numbers Value Numbers Value No. No. No. EVVES: (1) Draft 90.9 51'3 902.4 31.3 20.8 195.2 35.3 28.6 191.6 (2) Culls . (a) Store . 3.0 1.9 12.1 3.9 3.2 17.4 (b) Fat . 3.0 1.7 15.4 11.9 7.9 49.3 2.8 2.3 9.0 Total Culls 3.0 1.7 15.4 14.9 9.8 61.4 6.7 5.5 26.4 Total Ewes . 93.9 53.0 917.8 46.2 30.6 256.6 42.0 34.1 218.0 LAMBS: th (a) Store 34.3 19.4 201.7 65.2 43.2 332.8 23.3 18.9 97.3 b) Fat . 38.2 21.5 241.0 12.7 8.5 68.4 5.0 4.0 21.7 Total Lambs 72.5 40.9 442.7 77.9 51.7 4012 28.3 22.9 119.0 HOGGS: (a) Store 1.8 1.0 11.8 13.3 8.8 76.7 31.9 25.9 187.0 (b) Fat . 5.1 2.9 39.6 12.0 8.0 77.4 18.5 14.9 108.1 Total Hoggs 6.9 3.9 51.4 25.3 16.8 154.1 50.4 40.8 295.1 RAMS: (a) Stock 1.8 1.0 63.9 0.3 0.2 2.4 1.9 1.5 26.3 (b) Other 1.0 0.5 4.8 0.8 0.5 3.8 0.6 0:5 2.6 ,-• Total Rams . 2.8 1.5 68.7 1.1 0.7 6.2 2.5 2.0 28.9 Casualty Sheep . 1.2 0.7 4.4 0.3 0.2 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 TOTAL SHEEP 177.3 100.0 1,485.0 150.8 100.0 819.1 123.4 100.0 661.3 is remarkable for flocks that are about 90 per cent self-main- tained. In the Exmoor group the proportion of the breeding flock sold as draft ewes was 24 per cent, and 19 per cent in the Brendon Group. Cull ewes accounted for only 3 per cent of total sales of ewes in the Hereford Group, but for 16 per cent in the Exmoor Group and 32 per cent in the Brendons; all ewes of this type in the Hereford Group, and over 80 per cent in the Brendons were graded, but only 42 per cent for the Exmoor Group. Sales of lambs (i.e. sheep up to one year old) are of greatest importance in the Brendon Group where more than one-half of the lambs born are sold as lambs, compared with about 35 per cent in the Hereford Group, and less than 20 per cent in the Exmoor Group. Actually, among the flocks in the Bren- don Group, those that are following a policy of cross-breeding with a black-faced ram,and purchasing ewe replacements, sell considerably more than 50 per cent of their lamb crop as lambs each year, while those flocks retaining ewe lambs for flock replacement sell a correspondingly smaller proportion. There are also considerable differences in the method of disposal of the lambs sold; in the Hereford Group more than half are graded whereas in both of the Somerset groups about five-sixths are sold as store lambs. Sales of hoggs in the Exmoor Group account for over 40 per cent by number and nearly 45 per cent by value of all sheep sold and, of those sold, nearly two-thirds were sold as stores. Sales of this class of sheep in the Brendon Group is of less importance, and they are sold fat and store in roughly equal proportions. Hoggs are unimportant in the Hereford Group but of those recorded the majority were graded. Sales of rams are of minor importance in the Hereford and Exmoor groups, where a few pedigree rams are reared for sale on one or two farms in each group; in the Brendon Group sales of rams are negligible. The average price realised by the four-tooth draft Clun Forest ewes in the Hereford Group was a fraction under £10 per head; draft ewes in the Brendons are mainly pure and crossbred Closewools, and the average price realised was £6 5s. Od., while the smaller draft Horn ewes in the Exmoor Group averaged £5 9s. Od. per head. The average price realised by all ewes sold, both draft and cull, was just over £9 15s. Od. per head in the Hereford Group compared with £5 1 is. Od. in the Brendons, and £5 4s. Od. per head in the Exmoor Group. The average price received for all lambs sold was £6 2s. Od. 53 per head in the Hereford Group compared with £5 3s. Od. for the mainly crossbred lambs in the Brendons and £4 4s. Od. for the much smaller Horn lambs of the Exmoor flocks. Store lambs averaged £5 17s. 6d., £5 2s. Od. and £4 3s. Od. per head in the three groups, but the difference in the case of fat lambs sold is considerably more marked. In the Hereford Group fat lambs averaged 52 lb. estimated dressed carcase weight and

TABLE 12

Sales of Sheep: Average Price Realised per Head, and Average Estimated Dressed Carcase Weight of Sheep Sold Fat

N.W. Hereford Brendons Exmoor

EWES: lb. lb. lb. (1) Draft . 9-93 6-24 5-43 (2) Culls: (a) Store 4-06 4-42 (b) Fat . 54-1 5-07 58-5 4-16 49-5 3-23 Total Culls . 5-07 4-14 3-93

Total Ewes 9-77 5-56 5-19 LAMBS: (a) Store . 5-88 5-10 4-17 (b) Fat . 52-2 6-31 43-6 5-37 36-0 4-36 Total Lambs . 6-11 5-15 4-21

HOGGS: (a) Store . 6-47 5-75 5-86 (b) Fat . 714 7-78 49-1 6-46 53-6 5-87

Total Hoggs . •••••••••• 7-44 6-08 5-86 RAMS: (a) Stock . 35-13 8-00 13-73 (b) Other . 5-00 5-02 4-43 Total Rams 24-65 5-87 11-51

realised £6 6s. Od. per head, equivalent to 29.0 pence per lb. For the Brendon Group the corresponding figures were 44 lb. in weight and 7s. Od. in value, at 29.6 pence per lb., while for the Exmoor Group the average weight is 36 lb., value £4 7s. Od. and the price per lb. 29.1 pence. A direct comparison between these figures would, however, be misleading. Of total sales of fat lambs nearly 60 per cent in the Hereford Group are graded off roots from December onwards, whereas in the Exmoor Group 65 per cent, and in the Brendon Group over 80 per cent are graded off grass in the autumn at an appreciably 54 earlier age. Sales of fat lambs are in any case of very minor importance in the two Somerset groups. The average sale price of hoggs shows the same gradation between the groups as was the case with lambs. Store hoggs averaged £6 9s. Od. in the Hereford Group, £5 15s. Od. in the Brendon and £5 17s. Od. in the Exmoor Group where hoggs sold include a proportion offour -tooth wethers. Hoggs graded in the Hereford Group averaged 71 lb. carcase weight which, at an average price of 26.2 pence per lb., realised £7 15s. Od. per head, Fat hoggs in the Brendon group were over 20 lb. per head lighter and averaged £6 9s. Od. In the Exmoor Group the average weight was 54 lb. and the amount received £5 17s. Od. per head; the average age of the hoggs sold in this group how- ever is greater than in the other two groups owing to the inclusion of sales of four-tooth wethers. The outstanding reason for the high level of production of sheep in the Hereford Group is the high level of net sales of sheep achieved, which results from the concentration of far- mers in this group upon the production of young draft ewes of the Clun Forest breed, which command a very satisfactory price. The high rate of turnover involved in the system of management practised is only made possible by the relatively large proportion of lambs reared per ewe, in conjunction with the purchase of a small proportion of annual flock replace- ments. Sales of draft ewes per 100 acres in this group exceed, in value, the total sales of all sheep in the two Somerset groups. Despite the high proportion of lambs required for flock re- placement purposes, sales of lambs in the Hereford Group are also higher in value per 100 acres than in the Brendon Group, where lambs form the main class of sheep sold, and higher than sales of lambs and hoggs combined in the Exmoor Group. In part this high production of sheep in the Hereford Group is a measure of the greater productivity of the land, and of the better natural conditions found in N.W. Hereford, but in the main it is due to the system of sheep management practised, and to the maintenance of a prolific and early maturing breed of sheep for which there is an exceptionally keen demand from both grassland and arable areas. Differences in the level of production between the two Somerset groups arise chiefly from the considerably lower average price per head received for all types of sheep in the Exmoor Group due, in the main, to the smaller size and slower maturing propensities of the type of sheep which of necessity must be maintained under hill conditions. '55 Monthly Distribution of Sheep Sales In Table 13 the monthly distribution of total annual sales of sheep is set out, by value, for each of the three groups, while in Table C of the Appendix the figures are given separately for each class of sheep.

TABLE 13

Monthly Distribution of Sheep Sales: by Value

N.W. Hereford Brendons Exmoor

November 2.0 11.6 10.5 December 4.9 6.3 2.4 January . 4.9 2.0 1.8 February 6.1 1.7 — March . 4.7 5-3 April 1.7 — — May — — — June 0.6 1.8 1.5 July 3.9 2-7 1-4 August . 4.4 *20.9 24.1 September 63.5 27.7 53.5 October . 3.3 20.0 4.8 YEAR • 100.0 100.0 100.0

Starting in November, when flocks have been made up for the coming sheep year, some income from sales of sheep accrues in the Hereford Group in all months of the year except for May, although sales in. April and June are very slight. However, during the first nine months, less than 29 per cent of total annual income has accrued, and over 71 per cent falls in the three months August to October, and 63.5 per cent in the single month of September. In the Brendon Group monthly income from sheep sales is somewhat more erratically distri- buted. No sales at all occurred in April and May, and sales in January, February, June and July were very slight. There were however fairly heavy sales in November, and the first nine months accounted for 31 per cent of total annual sales, while the remainder was spread much more evenly between the three months August to October than was the case in the Hereford Group, and the peak in September was relatively slight. Sales in the Exmoor Group tend to be more concentrated than in either of the other two groups; no sales at all occurred during the four months February to May and, of the first nine months, 56 only November saw any appreciable income, with the result that no less than 82.4 per cent of total annual sales accrued during the final three months, and 53-5 per cent in September. If wool sales, for which payment was normally received during the period August to October, are brought into account, the position is still more striking; of total receipts for the sheep enterprise, 78 per cent in the Hereford Group, 80 per cent in the Brendons and 88 per cent in the Exmoor Group fell during this three-month period. Considering briefly the monthly distribution of sales for the separate categories of sheep (Appendix Table C)it is seen that sales of draft ewes occur mainly in September in all groups but, although they are almost entirely restricted to that month in the Hereford Group, in the Somerset groups a considerable proportion- occurs during August, especially in the Brendons. Sales of cull ewes take place mainly between June and Decem- ber in all groups, with a peak in August-September. Lambs sold in the Hereford Group are mostly sold fat off roots between December and March, when nearly two-thirds of total sales oflambs takes place; in the two Somerset groups, where over 80 per cent of lambs are sold as stores, the main incidence falls between August and December, with a peak in September-October when nearly one-half of total sales oflambs is effected in the Brendon Group and over 60 per cent in the Exmoor Group. In the latter group September alone accounted for over 50 per cent, and the three months September to November for 83 per cent. Sales of hoggs in the Btendon Group are fairly evenly spread over the months July to November inclusive, with a peak in August. In the Exmoor Group the main incidence of sales is narrower, extending from August to November, and the peak, which comes in September, is more pronounced, with 48 per cent of total sales of hoggs effected in that month. The importance of September as the main month for sales of sheep in the Exmoor Group is very marked; 65 per cent by value of draft ewes, 35 per cent of cull ewes, 50 per cent of lambs, 48 per cent of hoggs and 53.5 per cent of total sheep sales for the year occur in this one month.

WOOL SALES Owing to the large number of different grades of wool, and to the different proportions of washed to greasy wool recorded in the three groups, it is not possible to present a briefsummary analysis of wool sales. The minimum data necessary for 57 comparative purposes are set out in Tables 14 to 16, and a detailed analysis is given for each group in Tables D to F of the Appendix. The first point of difference between the groups concerns the varying proportions of washed and greasy wool produced. In N.W. Hereford, where the washing of sheep has remained a traditional practice, virtually all adult sheep are washed before shearing and, by weight, 97 per cent of fleece wool, 67 per cent of lambs wool and over 94 per cent of total wool sold in the Hereford Group was washed wool. In the upland areas of S.W. Somerset the washing of sheep has been abandoned for many years. During 1951 however, under the stimulus of high wool prices and a considerably increased margin between the price per lb. for washed and greasy wool, a number of farmers on the Brendons resumed the washing of their sheep or, perhaps more accurately in the majority of cases, commenced to wash sheep for the first time. Of the farms included in the Brendon Group four out of ten washed some or all of their sheep and, of total wool sold in this group, 20 per cent by weight was washed wool, fleece and lambs wool being washed in equal proportions. No sheep were washed on any of the farms in the Exmoor Group. It will be noted that for the main types of fleece wool the difference in price per lb. between washed and greasy wool is considerably greater for the types of wool found in the Hereford Group than for those in the Brendon Group, and this question which,in conjunction with the associated loss of weight in washed wool, has a considerable bearing upon the economic advantage of washing wool, will be discussed in some detail in a later section of this report. The second difference relates to the distribution of total wool sales between the three main categories of wool, i.e. fleece wool, lambs wool, and pluck, locks, etc. Fleece wool com- mands by far the highest price, and the proportion of total wool sold, by weight, coming in this category was 83.5 per cent in the Hereford Group, 80.6 in the Brendons and 84.0 in the Exmoor Group. Pluck, locks, etc. accounted for 4.7 per cent of the total in the Brendons Group, 5.9 per cent in the Exmoor, but for only 1.4 per cent in the Hereford Group. It is possible, however, that some sales of this type of wool in the Hereford Group may have been overlooked, but the omission, if such there be, will have only a negligible effect upon the total of wool sales. The proportion of lambs wool, which com- mands a price intermediate between fleece wool and pluck, locks, etc. was 10 per cent in the Exmoor Group and 14-15 58 TABLE 14 Wool Sales: Average Quantity and Value of Wool Sold Per 100 Acres, Price Per lb., and Per Cent of Total Sales of Wool N.W. Hereford Group

WASHED WOOL GREASY WOOL TOTAL WOOL N.W. HEREFORD Av. price Av. price Av. price Per cent Weight per lb. Value Weight per lb. Value Weight per lb. Value of total weight FLEECE WOOL: lb. d. lb. d. lb. d. E Diamond, Pick and Shafty Teg 94 104.1 40.6 1 86.3 0.4 95 103.9 41.0 7.8 Pick Ewe and Wether . 405 103.0 173.8 16 81.7 - 5.4 421 102.2 179.2 34.5 Super Ewe and Wether 358 100.5 150.0 11 81.0 3.8 369 99.9 153.8 30.2 Other . 135 86.1 48.3 135 86.1 48.3 11.0 Total Fleece Wool 992 99.9 412.7 28 81.6 9.6 1,020 99.4 422.3 83.5 LAMBS WOOL: Best Shropshire . 74 74.0 22.9 9 54.0 2.1 83 71.8 25.0 6.9 Fine Radnor and Cross-bred 36 74.0 11.0 - 19 63.5 5.1 55 70.4 16.1- 4.5 Other . 14 60.0 3.5 32 62.3 8.1 46 61.6 11.6 3.7 Total Lambs Wool 124 72.4 37.4 60 61.4 15.3 184 68.8 52.7 15.1 Pluck, Locks, etc. . 17 33.2 2.4 17 33.2 2.4 1.4 TOTAL WOOL 1,116 96.8 4501. 105 62.2 27.3 1,221 93.8 477.4 100.0 Per Cent 91.4% 94•3°/ 8.6% 5.7% 100.0% 100.0% TABLE 15 Wool Sales; Average Quantity and Value of Wool Sold Per 100 Acres, Price Per lb., and Per Cent of Total Sales of Wool Brendon Group

WASHED WOOL GREASY WOOL TOTAL WOOL BRENDONS Per cent Weight Av. price Value Weight Av.price Value Weight Av. price Value of total per lb. per lb. per lb. weight lb. d. lb. d. lb. d. FLEECE WOOL: Exmoor Horn 21 101.5 9.0 255 87.9 93.5 276 89.0 102.5 16.9 Light Crossbred 98 82.1 33.6 466 69.8 135.5 564 71.9 169.1 34.5 Heavy Crossbred 129 79.4 42.7 175 67.5 49.3 304 72.5 92.0 18.6 Down . - - - 133 73.0 40.3 133 73.0 40.3 8.1 Other . 20 74.2 6.1 21 72.2 6.1 41 73.2 12.3 2.5 Total Fleece Wool 268 81.8 91.4 1,050 74.3 324.8 1,318 75.8 416.2 80.6 LAMBS WOOL: Exmoor Horn 13 71.5 3.8 15 • 61.7 3.9 28 66.2 7.7 1.7 Cross-bred . 30 70.0 8.7 109 60.4 27.4 139 62.4 36.1 8.5 Down Cross . 7 65.0 1.9 66 57.6 15.8 73 58.3 17.7 4.5 Total Lambs Wool 50 69.6 14.4 190 59.5 47.1 240 61.6 61.5 14.7 Pluck, Locks, etc. . 9 55.0 2.2 68 45.1 12.7 77 46.3 14.9 4.7 TOTAL WOOL 327 79.1 108.0 1,308 70.6 384.6 1,635 72.3 492.6 100.0 Per Cent 20.0% - 21.9% 80.0% - 78.1% 100.0% - 100.0% - TABLE 16

Wool Sales; Average Quantity and Value of Wool Sold Per 100 Acres, Price Per lb., and Per Cent of Total Sales of Wool. Exmoor Group

WASHED WOOL GREASY WOOL TOTAL WOOL EXMOOR Per cent Av. price Av. price Av. price of total Weight per lb. Value Weight per lb. Value Weight per lb. Value weight lb. d. lb. d. lb. d. °A FLEECE WOOL: Exmoor Horn 1,111 88.1 407.8 1,111 88.1 407.8 60.7 Light Cross-bred 347 69.4 100.4 347 69.4 100.4 19.0 Heavy Cross-bred 48 68.0 13.5 48 68.0 13.5 2.6 Other . 31 65.9 8.4 31 65.9 8.4 1.7 Total Fleece Wool 1,537 82.8 530.1 1,537 82.8 530.1 84.0 LAMBS WOOL: Exmoor Horn 161 63.9 42.9 161 63.9 42.9 8.8 Light Cross-bred 24 60.0 5.9 24 60.0 5.9 1.3 Total Lambs Wool 185 63.4 48.8 185 63.4 48.8 10.1 Pluck, Locks, etc. 109 39.6 17.9 109 39.6 17.9 5.9 , TOTAL WOOL 1,831 78.3 596.8 1,831 78.2 596.8 100.0 Per Cent 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% per cent in the other two groups. The average price realised per lb. of wool, on the greasy basis, for these three categories of wool was as follows:

AVERAGE PRICE REALISED PER LB. Hereford Brendon Exmoor Group Group Group d. d. d. Greasy Fleece Wool 81.6 74.3 82.8 Greasy Lambs Wool 61.4 59.5 63.4 Greasy Pluck, Locks, etc. 33.2 45-1 39.6

The third, and rather more important, difference between the groups relates to the type and grade and hence the price of the wool produced in each group. In the Hereford Group over 77 per cent of the fleece wool produced was graded Pick or Super, ewe and wether, with a price range per lb. from 97-1-d. to 1041d. for washed wool and 80-1d. to 861d. per lb. on the greasy basis. In the Brendon Group 66 per cent of fleece wool was graded as Light and Heavy crossbred with a corresponding price range from 76d. to 821d. for washed wool, and 651d. to 70d. per lb. for wool in the grease. In the Exmoor Group 72 per cent of fleece wool was graded as Exmoor Horn, with a price per lb. greasy ranging from 86d. to 88-1-d. The average price per lb. realised for all greasy fleece wool was 81.6d. in the Hereford Group, 74.3d. in the Brendons and 82.8d. per lb. in the Exmoor Group; the corresponding figures for all fleece wool, washed and greasy, however, was 99.4d., 75.8d. and 82.8d. per lb. respectively. Differences in the average price per lb. between the groups for lambs wool are very much less and, in total, they are not important. The fourth difference between the groups, and a very im- portant one, concerns the average weight of wool shorn per sheep, and the total quantity produced per 100 acres. From the data available it is possible to calculate roughly the average weight of fleece shorn'per adult sheep (i.e. over one year old) and the quantity of lambs wool shorn per lamb. In both cases, all wool coming from these sheep that has been graded other than as fleece wool or lambs wool is excluded. Washed wool has been converted to the greasy basis on the assumption that a washed fleece is 15 per cent lighter at shearing than it would have been if left unwashed. 62 Average Quantity of Wool Shorn Per Sheep Greasy Wool Basis

Hereford Brendon Exmoor Group Group Group lb. lb. lb. Adult Sheep: Fleece wool 5-06 5-92 5-68 Lambs: Lambs wool . 1-07 1-58 1-30

In considering these figures two factors need to be borne in mind. Firstly, they relate to sheep kept under upland condi- tions; average clips from the same breeds should be consider- ably heavier under lowland conditions of management. Sec- ondly, in the case of the Hereford Group the proportion of relatively young sheep, two- and four-tooth, in the adult sheep category is considerably greater than in the two Somerset groups. However, the average clip per head for both adult sheep and lambs is highest for the mainly Closewool and cross- bred sheep in the Brendon Group,and is higher for the Exmoor Horn sheep than for the Clun Forest. Of the total number of sheep on the farms at the time of the opening valuation in November 1950, all of which would, if retained, have been over one year old at the time of shearing in 1951, nearly 25 per cent had been disposed of before shearing in the Hereford Group, compared with 15 per cent in the Bren- dons and only 11 per cent in the Exmoor Group, and, as a result, the number of adult sheep available for shearing was between 230 and 240 per 100 acres in the Hereford and Brendon groups and 270 in the Exmoor Group. The total quantity of wool produced per 100 acres, converted to the greasy basis, averaged 1,693 lb.in the Brendon Group; in the Exmoor Group th& greater number of adult sheep on hand at shearing time more than offsets the slightly lower clip per sheep, and the total quantity produced averaged 1,831 lb. per 100 acres; in the Hereford Group the smaller average clip per head reinforces the reduced number of sheep shorn, and total wool produced averaged only 1,417 lb. per 100 acres. The total value of wool sold averaged £477 per 100 acres in the Hereford Group, £493 in the Brendons and £597 in the Exmoor Group. Compared with the Brendon Group, the higher average price per lb. realised by wool in the Hereford Group does not quite offset the lower quantity of wool shorn per head. Compared with the Exmoor Group, the fewer adult sheep available for shearing per 100 acres in the Brendon 63 'Group, and the considerably lower price per lb. realised is only offset to a small degree by the slightly higher average amount of wool clipped per head, and total wool sales in the Exmoor Group were more than £100 higher per 100 acres than in the Brendon Group and £120 higher than in the Hereford Group. Before leaving the question of wool sales it should perhaps be explained that the slight differences in the figures shown for total wool sales per 100 acres between Tables 14 to 16 and Table 7 are accounted for by the inclusion in the latter Table, but not in the former, of interest, paid at the rate of 3-1- per cent per annum, on the value of wool not collected from the farm by September 1st. A further point that should perhaps be made clear, in case it leads to an unfortunate misunderstanding, is that the Clun Forest sheep are not responsible for the wide range of wool types shown in Appendix Table D; most of the grades towards the bottom of the section dealing with fleece wool, in which only small quantities of wool are recorded, are the responsibility of the flock of Welsh cross-bred ewes kept by one farmer in the Hereford Group.

TOTAL PRODUCTION Production of sheep averaged £1,384 per 100 acres in the Hereford Group, but wool sales are relatively low for reasons that are directly associated with the high level of sheep sales achieved. Production ofsheep was slightly higher in the Brendon Group than in the Exmoor, but sales of wool were much lower, and total production in the latter group, including Hill Sheep Subsidy payments, averaged £1,371 per 100 acres, £120 higher than in the Brendon Group but over £490 per 100 acres lower than the figure of £1,862 reached in the Hereford Group. There are, therefore, large differences between the groups both of detail, and in the overall results achieved in relation to the production of the sheep enterprise, and the differences are particularly marked when the Hereford group is compared with the two Somerset groups. The level of production how- ever is but one-half of the economic equation, and the margin, surplus or deficit, can only be determined when production is related to the level of costs involved in bringing about that production. Thus, a high level of production per 100 acres does not necessarily result in a high surplus margin, although, in most cases, a high surplus margin per acre cannot be achieved without it. A high level of production per acre, if accompanied by disproportionately high production costs, can result in a large deficit, and where this is the case, although 64 production per acre judged on its own may seem to be highly satisfactory, a waste of other factors of production, labour, capital equipment, raw materials, etc., will have occurred, a point that is frequently overlooked by those who seek to judge efficiency of production in terms of physical output per acre. In the next section of the report it remains to analyse the pro- duction costs involved in the achievement of the level of pro- duction already assessed for the three groups.

Production Costs METHOD OF COSTING The method of assessing the various items of cost follows closely on the lines adopted in the previous investigation.* Hete it is sufficient to note that figures of actual costs are em- ployed for purchased foods, folded roots, grazing, labour and miscellaneous expenses; together these account for 81 per cent of total costs in the Hereford Group and for over 93 per cent in the two Somerset groups. Unpaid family labour is charged at the same rate as employed labour, and the labour hours recorded for youths and females have been converted into an equivalent number of hours of adult male labour on the basis of relative wage rates. For the hand-fed foods, estimates of production costs have been used. Costs omitted are General Farm Overheads, Management and Interest on Capital. PRODUCTION COSTS In Table 17 average production costs are set out in summary form, together with figures of the average production and mar- gin per 100 acres. TABLE 17 Production Costs, Production and Margin; 'Average Per 100 Acres

N.W. Hereford Brendons Exmoor PRODUCTION COSTS Total foods and grazing 608.8 476.1 352.8 Total labour 1939. 1957. 1904. Miscellaneous expenses 78.5 53.8 41.1 Total Production Costs . 881.2 725.6 584.3 Total Production . 1862-7 1250.9 1370.9 Margin: Surplus 981.5 525-3 786.6

* Op. cit. 65 The much higher level of production in the Hereford Group has not been achieved without a material increase in the level of costs, particularly for foods and grazing, but the increase in cost is small in relation to the increase in the level of produc- tion, and the margin per 100 acres in this'group at £982 is £195 higher than for the Exmoor Group and £456 per 100 acres greater than the corresponding figure for the Brendon Group. Although production per 100 acres is £120 higher in the Exmoor Group than in the Brendons, the total cost of foods and grazing is over £140 less in the former group, and the margin £261 per 100 acres greater. In Table 18 average production costs are set out in greater detail. Total purchased foods were highest in the Exmoor Group at £47 per 100 acres, but virtually all this expenditure was in- curred in respect of keep for ewe lambs wintered off the moor; in the Hereford Group, in contrast, practically the entire ex- penditure of £27 per 100 acres on purchased foods was for purchased concentrates, which also account for an average outlay of £8 per 100 acres in the Brendon Group. There were large differences between the groups in the cost of folded roots fed to sheep, varying from £173 per 100 acres in the Hereford Group to £111 in the Brendons and to less than £80 in the Exmoor Group; there were smaller differences in the cost of hand-fed roots, but again the cost is highest in Hereford and lowest in Exmoor, and total roots averaged £233 in the Hereford Group, £153 in the Brendons and only £94 per 100 acres in the Exmoor Group. Differences in the cost of other hand-fed foods are even more striking than in the case of roots. Expenditure upon home-grown corn and hay in the Hereford Group was very substantial indeed, and the combined cost averaged £101 per 100 acres, which is equal to two-thirds of the cost of all home-grown foods in the Brendon Group, and actually exceeds this total cost in the Exmoor Group. All im- portant items of food costs are thus considerably higher in the Hereford Group, and total foods at £362 per 100 acres were more than twice as great as in the Brendon Group and nearly two-and-a-half times as great as in the Exmoor Group. Grazing costs were £60 per 100 acres lower in the Hereford Group than in the Brendons, but £40 higher than on Exmoor. In this connection it will be recalled that grassland accounts for a smaller proportion of the total acreage devoted to sheep in the Hereford Group than in the Brendons, while in the Exmoor Group a high proportion of the grazing consists of hill 66 TABLE 18

Production Costs; Average Per 100 Acres, and as Per Cent of Total

N.W. Hereford Brendons Exmoor FOODS: £ % £ % £ % (1) Purchased: (a) Concentrates . 26.9 3.1 8.4 1.2 0.4 (b) Other . 0.2 4.4 0.5 47-1 8.1 Total Purchased . 27.1 3.1 12.8 1-7 47.5 8.1 (2) Home-grown: (a) Folded Roots 173.1 19.6 110.8 15.3 79.3 13.6 (b) Hand-fed Roots 59.9 6.8 42.0 5.8 14-3 2.4 Total Roots 233.0 26.4 152.8 21-1 93.6 16-0 (c) Corn . 30.2 3.4 0.3 - - (d) Hay . 70.9 .8.1 3-5 . 0.5 4.5 0.8 (e) Other . 1.1 0-1 1.5 0.2 2-1 0.4 Total Home-grown 335.2 38.0 158.1 21.8 100.2 17.2 TOTAL FOODS . 362.3 41-1 170.9 23.5 147.7 25.3 GRAZING 246.5 28.0 305.2 42.1 205.1 35-1 TOTAL FOODS AND GRAZING 608.8 69.1 476.1 65.6 352.8 60.4 LABOUR: (a) Man . 185.2 21.0 181.9 25.1 173-7 29.7 (b) Horse . 0.5 04 1.3 0.2 0-7 0.1 (c) Riding Pony . 2.2 0.2 5.1 0.7 13.5 2-3 (d)Tractor . 6.0 0.7 7.4 1.0 2.5 0.5 TOTAL LABOUR 193.9 22.0 195.7 27.0 190.4 32.6 MISCELLANEOUS EXPENSES . 78.5 8.9 53.8 7.4 41.1 7.0 TOTAL PRODUCTION COSTS 881.2 100.0 725.6 100.0 584.3 100.0

land. To a certain extent, therefore, the lower grazing cost in the Hereford Group reflects the greater dependence upon tillage crops and hay for sheep-feeding in that group. The total cost of foods and grazing combined averaged £609 per 100 acres in the Hereford Group, £133 greater than in the Brendons and £256 more than in the Exmoor Group. Manual labour costs were comparable in the Hereford and Brendon groups, and slightly lower in the Exmoor Group where, however, the lower cost is offset by a higher cost in- t curred for riding ponies, with the result that the total cost of labour varied only from £190.4 per 100 acres in the 67 Exmoor group to £195-7 in the Brendons. Miscellaneous Expenses averaged just under £80 per 100 acres in the Hereford Group compared with £54 in the Brendons and £41 in the Exmoor Group, but accounted for less than 9 per cent of total costs in all groups. The differences between the groups in the level of cost for the various items are very substantial, both per 100 acres and in relation to the level of production achieved, and these differences warrant an examination in some detail.

(1) Foods In Table 19 a detailed analysis of both the quantities and costs of foods fed per 100 acres is set out. (a) Cake and Corn.—The average quantity of cake and corn fed per 100 acres amounted to nearly 58 cwt. for the Hereford Group compared with less than 9 cwt. in the Brendon Group and under 1 cwt. in the Exmoor Group. Cake and corn in the Hereford Group were fed to fattening wether lambs and hoggs,to ewe Iambs,and to breeding ewes during the late preg- nancy and early nursing period; of the total quantity fed 29 cwt. consisted of home-grown corn, 10 cwt. of cake and 181 cwt. of dried beet pulp. (b) Hay.—Hay is fed as a routine practice during the winter period to all classes of sheep in the Hereford Group, but mainly to breeding ewes; the total consumption in this group averaged nearly 12 tons per 100 acres compared with about half a ton in the two Somerset groups where hay is normally only fed to sheep when snow is on the ground. Hay, cake and corn combined accounted for 35 per cent of total food costs (excluding grazing) in the Hereford Group compared with 7 per cent and 3 per cent of much smaller total costs in the Brendon and Exmoor groups respectively. Calcu- lated per head over total sheep on hand in the opening valu- ation in each of the groups the average consumption of cake and corn would be, for the winter period, 20 lb. per head in the Hereford Group, 3-I lb. in the Brendons and less than one- tenth lb. in the Exmoor Group, while the corresponding figures for hay consumption would be 82 lb., 3-1-- lb. and 4 lb. per head in the three groups. These figures illustrate perhaps more pointedly than any others the great gulf that exists between feeding practice in the Hereford and Somerset systems of up- land sheep management. (c) Folded Roots and Green Fodder.—Folding crops, in the 68 TABLE 19 Analysis of Foods: Average Quantity and Cost of Foods Fed Per 100 Acres, and as Per Cent of Total Cost of Foods

N.W. HEREFORD BRENDONS EXMOOR

Quantity Cost Quantity Cost Quantity Cost CAKE AND CORN: Cwt. Cwt. Cwt. (1) Cake . 10.3 14.5 4.0 2.4 3.4 2.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 • (2) Dried Beet Pulp 18.4 12.4 3.4 6.1 5.0 2.9 (3) Oats . 10.1 10.3 2.9 0.3 0.3 0.2 (4) Dredge . 18.4 18.9 5.2 (5) Beans . 0.7 1.0 0.3 Total Cake and Corn 57.9 57.1 15.8 8.8 8.7 5.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 HAY . 232.6 70.9 19.6 8.4 3.5 2.0 10.8 4.5 3.0 0\ ROOTS AND GREEN FODDER: (1) Folded: Acres Acres Acres (a) Off Farm . - 4.4 2.6 41.2 27.9 (b) On Farm 13.2 173.1 47.8 11.9 110.8 64.8 9.8 79.3 53.7

Total Folded 173.1 47.8 .11••• 115.2 67.4 120.5 81.6 (2) Hand-fed: Cwt. Cwt. Cwt. (a) Mangolds 598 47.9 13.2 205 19.5 11.4 102 12.8 8.7 (b) Swedes 138 12.0 3.3 66 6.9 . 4.7 (c) Turnips 48 4.6 2.7 (d) Cabbage 102 10.7 6.3 3 0.5 0.3 (e) Silage . 70 7.2 4.2 Total Hand-fed 736 • 59.9 16.5 425 42.0 24.6 171 20.2 13.7 Total Roots and Green Fodder 233.0 64.3 157.2 92.0 140.7 95.3 Gall. Gall. Gall. Cows' milk . 10.2 1.3 0.3 14.4 1.5 0.9 21.4 2.1 1.4 TOTAL FOODS .••••••• 362.3 100.0 170.9 100.0 147.7 100.0 form of winter keep taken off the farm is encountered to an appreciable extent only in the Exmoor Group, and not at all in the Hereford Group; such keep is very expensive indeed at the present time and is avoided if at all possible, but it accounts for over one-quarter of total food costs in the Exmoor Group. Folding crops provided on the farm represented, as a per- centage of total food costs, 48 per cent in the Hereford Group, 65 in the Brendons and 54 per cent in the Exmoor Group. An analysis of the types of crops grown for folding by sheep is given in Table 20. TABLE 20 Root and Green Fodder Crops for Folding: Average Acreage Per 100 Acres, and as Per Cent of Total Acreage of Folding Crops

N.W. Hereford Brendons Exmoor Ac. % Ac. % Ac. Turnips . 2-5 18.8 8.6 72.3 8.6 87.8 Swedes . 2.2 16.5 2.1 17.6 0.5 5.0 Kale 0.9 6.9 0.5 3.8 0.2 2.5 Rape . 1.4 11.0 0.1 0.8 Beet Tops 1.9 14.7 Turnips and Kale 1.2 9.2 Turnips and Rape 0.6 4.6 0.7 6-3 - - Swedes and Kale . 0.4 2.7 - - 0.4 3.9 Turnips and Rape and Mustard . 2.1 15.6 TOTAL 13.2 100.0 11.9 100.0 9.8 100.0

Not only is the total acreage provided greater in the Here- ford Group, but a considerably wider range of crops is grown. Folding on roots commences in this district in November, and even in October in some cases, but in the Somerset Groups it does not become general until after Christmas. In the Brendon area over 70 per cent offolded roots consist ofcommon turnips, and over 88 per cent on Exmoor, but, although turnips account for a higher proportion of roots than any other single type in the Hereford Group, they account for only 19 per cent of the total in that group. Swedes are much more commonly grown in this area than in the Somerset districts and occupy 161 per cent of the total area, closely followed by mixtures of turnips, rape and mustard with 151 per cent. Mixed roots in various combinations of turnips, kale, rape and swedes account for , over 32 per cent of the total in this group compared with 6.3 per cent and 3.9 per cent in the two Somerset Groups. 70 The cost of production of folded roots (excluding beet tops) has been determined for each group, the various crops grown being represented in the total acreage costed roughly in proportion to their relative importance. Beet tops, grown only on one or two farms in the Hereford Group, have been charged at £7 per acre. The average cost of production found for each of the groups is. set out in Table 21.

TABLE 21

Average Cost Per Acre of Growing Root Crops for Folding: 1950 Crops •

N.W. HEREFORD BRENDONS EXMOOR

Number of Fields Costed 8 11 11 Total Acreage Costed . 50 63 90 AVERAGE COST PER ACRE: Hrs. £ s. d. Hrs. £ s. d. Hrs. £ s. d. Labour: (a) Man . 27.9 3 2 9 11.3 1 5 4 11.2 1 5 1 (b) Horse 2.0 2 6 1.0 - 1 3 3.3 4 2 (c) Tractor 11.3 2 5 1 9.2 1 16 11 7.9 1 12 7 Total Labour — 5104 — 3 3 6 — 3110 Contract Work . 1 7 ______. Manures (Net Cost) 5 6 7 217 3 2 9 2 Seed . 13 9 92 510 Rent . 1 00 1 3 2 13 11 Hedging, etc., costs 9 2 12 7 10 2 Implements: Repairs and , Depreciation . 1 1 6 1 0 2 19 11 Total Cost . £14. 2 11 £9 5 10 £8 0 10

The cost of growing root crops for folding averaged £14.15 per acre in the Hereford Group, £9.3 in the Brendons and £8.05 in the Exmoor Group. Manual labour costs in the Here- ford Group, owing to the more frequent need for hand-hoeing the types of roots grown in this area, and also to the more thorough pre-seeding cultivations undertaken, were two-and-a- half times as high as in the two Somerset groups where com- mon turnips, usually sown broadcast, are the main folding crop grown. Tractor costs per acre were also higher in the Hereford Group, while the net cost of manures at £5•35 were between £2.45 to £2.85 per acre greater. Total labour and manuring costs account for all the important differences be- tween the groups, and the combined cost of these items aver- aged £10.85 per acre in the Hereford Group, £6.05 in the Brendons and £5.55 per acre in the Exmoor Group. There 71 can however be but little doubt that the difference in The amount of sheep keep produced per acre is at least in propor- tion to the differences between the groups in the level of overall cogs. (d) Hand-fed Roots and Green Fodder.—Although hand-fed roots are ofrelatively greater importance in the Brendon Group, where they account for nearly 25 per cent of the total cost of foods, the actual level of cost is higher in the Hereford Group, where a total of nearly 37 tons per 100 acres were fed compared with 21 tons in the Brendon Group and 8-1 tons in the Exmoor. Mangolds are the most important type of hand-fed root in all groups and, together with swedes, account for all roots hand- fed in the Hereford Group and virtually all in the Exmoor. In the Brendon Group no swedes at all were hand-fed, but small quantities of cabbage, turnips and silage were used in addition to mangolds. Total Foods.—Total foods fed averaged £362 per 100 acres in the Hereford Group, £157 in the Brendons and £141 in the Exmoor Group, and these very marked differences in feeding cost, all relating to the winter and early spring periods, consti- tute by far the most important differences between the groups from the cost side. It is certainly true that there will normally be rather more grazing available during the winter months in the wetter upland areas of Somerset, but this can in no way make up for the much heavier feeding with all types of foods, both folded and hand-fed, in the Hereford Group. In fact, feeding practice in this group, both in the quantity and in the range of hand-fed food provided for sheep constitutes an en- tirely different system of management to those prevailing in the Somerset groups, and one which provides a very much higher average level of nutrition. Indeed, it is quite inconceivable that either the rapid rate of turnover of sheep found in the Hereford Group, or the practice of breeding from ewe lambs which alone makes this rate of turnover possible, would be feasible at all unless a very high level of nutrition were maintained at all stages of the cycle. That the expense of providing this level of nutrition is amply repaid under the economic circumstances associated with this system of management is clearly seen in the figures of production and margin for the Hereford Group. (2) Grazing Differences in the level of cost, and in the relative impor- tance of grazing costs between the groups are considerable; 72 the total cost of grazing in the Brendon Group at £305 per 100 acres represents 64 per cent of the total cost of foods and graz- ing, compared with £247 and 41 per cent in the Hereford Group and £205 per 100 acres and 58 per cent of the total in the Exmoor Group. Pasture.—The average cost of pasture land, per adjusted acre,is set out in Table 22. Pasture,in the sense here employed, relates to that area of grassland that has been grazed through- out the year, in contra-distinction to Hay/Silage land which is not available for grazing during the most productive period of the year.

TABLE 22 Cost of Pasture Land; Average Cost Per Adjusted Acre

EXMOOR N.W. Hereford Brendons Farm Hill* (1) Labour: £ s. d. £ s. d. £ s. d. £ s. d. Man 22 3 8 3 1 Horse 3 Tractor 1 7 26 1 4 Total Labour 3 9 62 48 (2) Manures (Net): Farmyard Manure 3 1 11 4 Artificials 4 2 5 9 7 7 Total Manures 4 5 7 8 711 (3) Field Costs: Rent 1 0 2 1 0 5 12 7 27 Lime . 60 3 7 510 Hedging, etc. 8 7 13 6 10 7 1 0 Total Field Costs 1 14 9 1 17 6 1 9 0 37 (4) Implements: Repairs and Depreciation . 59 49 5 1 (5) Ley Establishment 16 7 14 1 16 8 TOTAL COST . 3 5 3 3102 3 34 3 7

* Average cost per actual acre of hill land. The cost of manual labour is higher in the two Somerset groups, and the extra cost is largely associated with work in- volved in controlling the flow of water in the water-meadows 73 TABLE 23 Manuring of Grassland: Average Rates of Application Per Acre Dressed, and Per Cent of Total Area Dressed, for Pasture and Hay/Silage Land Separately

- PER CENT OF TOTAL AREA DRESSED • AVERAGE RATE OF An LICATION PER ACRE ON AREA] RESSED , N.W. Exmoor: N.W. Exmoor: . Hereford Brendons Farm Hereford Brendons Farm

PASTURE LAND: % % % Tons Tons Tons Farmyard Manure . . . . . 0.4 1.5 0.2 6.5 12.6 18.3 Cwt. Cwt. Cwt. Basic Slag . . , . . . . 5.8 9.9 9.1 9.61 7.30 9.48 Superphosphate . . . . . 0.7 0.5 0.6 , 2.57 2.60 2.83 North African Phosphate . . . - 0.3 0.3 - 6.67 5.40 Nitro Chalk ...... 0.5 0.8 - 2.10 1.00 Muriate of Potash . . . . . - 0.8 - - 0.75 Compound Fertiliser . . . . - 4.5 0.8 - 1.97 2.17 FIAY/SILAGE LAND: Tons Tons Tons Farmyard Manure . . • • 2.1 6.4 19.9 20.0 10.8 10.2 Cwt. Cwt. Cwt. Basic Slag ...... 33.1 22.0 8.9 7.96 7.78 10.33 Superphosphate . . . . . 4.2 - - 4.00 - Nitro Chalk ...... 12.3 1.8 - 2.24 1.00 Compound Fertiliser • • • 8.5 20.2 9.2 1.68 2.17 3.56 during the winter months. The total cost of manures is also higher in the Somerset Groups, mainly owing to heavier dressings of phosphatic manures. In Table 23 average rates of application of manures, and the proportion of the total area dressed are set out for Pasture and Hay/Silage land. The application of farmyard manure to pasture land is in- frequently undertaken in all groups, and even in the Brendon Group, where the incidence was highest, only LI acres per 100 received any. Nearly 10 per cent of pasture in the two Somerset groups, and just under 6 per cent in the Hereford Group were dressed with basic slag at an average rate of application of about 91- cwt. per acre in the Exmoor and Hereford groups and 71 cwt. per acre in the Brendons. Very small quantities of superphosphate were used in all three groups, and a small amount of North African Phosphate in the two Somerset groups; the total area dressed with straight phosphate ferti- lisers averaged 6-3 acres per 100 acres of pasture in the Here- ford Group compared with 107 in the Brendon Group and 10-0 in the Exmoor. Nitrochalk, the only straight nitrogenous fertiliser used, was limited to one farm in each of the Hereford and Brendon Groups while the same farm in the Brendons also applied a little muriate of potash. Compound grass fertilisers were applied by three farmers in the Brendon Group and two in the Exmoor at rates of about 2 cwt. per acre; the proportion of the total area dressed was 4-5 per cent of pasture in the for- mer group but less than one per cent in the latter. Total field costs, which include rent, the cost of liming, and upkeep of hedges and banks, ditches, fences, gates, etc., aver- aged nearly 35s. per acre in the Hereford Group, 37s. 6d. in the Brendons, and, mainly due to a lower rent charge, only 29s. per acre in the Exmoor Group. Liming costs were highest in the Hereford Group where over 12 per cent of the total ad- justed farm acreage was dressed at an average rate ofjust over 2 tons per acre. In the Brendons 6 per cent of the farm was limed during the year, and just over 9 per cent of the in-ground in the Exmoor Group; in both these cases the average appli- cation was approximately 35 cwt. per acre. Costs incurred in the establishment of new leys is one of the most important items in the total cost of grassland, and data relating to this cost is set out in Table 24. Nearly 13 per cent of the total area of grassland in the Hereford Group consists of first-year seeds compared with 7-4 .per cent in the Brendons and 8-5 per cent on Exmoor, and, on this account, the cost of ley establishment should be 75 TABLE 24 Average Cost of Ley Establishment by Undersowing and by Direct Seeding; Per Acre of Ley Established

N.W. Hereford Brendons Exmoor* 0/0 First Year Seeds as Per Cent of Total Acreage of Grassland 12.8 7.4 8.5 Proportion of First Year Seeds Established: (1) By Undersowing 94.5 59.7 28.1 (2) By Direct Seeding 5.5 40.3 71.9 Average Cost of Establishment Per Acre of Ley: £ s. d. £ s. d. £ s. d. (1) By Undersowing 6 2 1 6 13 0 6 16 7 (2) By Direct Seeding 14 7 5 13 5 0 11 0 2 (3) Total 611 1 9 6 2 9 16 9

* Farm only; hill land excluded. considerably higher in the Hereford Group. In fact, however, 72 per cent of the new leys in the Exmoor Group and 40 per cent in the Brendons were established by direct seeding, com- pared with less than 6 per cent in the Hereford Group. The average cost of establishment by direct seeding, per acre of ley established, varied from over £14 in the Hereford Group down to £11 per acre in the Exmoor Group, while the cost of estab- lishment under a cereal nurse crop is at a considerably lower level, varying from £6.1 per acre in the Hereford Group to £6.85 in the Exmoor Group. Thus, owing to the high propor- tion of leys established by the more costly method of direct seeding in the Exmoor and Brendon Groups, the average cost of establishment, per acre of ley established, was £9.85 and £9.3 respectively in these two groups compared with only £6.55 per acre in the Hereford Group where nearly 95 per cent of new leys were sown down under a cereal nurse crop. The higher proportion of leys in the Hereford Group however offsets the lower cost per acre of establishment compared with the Exmoor Group, and the cost of ley establishment, per acre of pasture land, is equal in these two groups and higher than in the Brendons. The lower cost of ley establishment in the Brendon Group, however, is more than offset by higher costs of labour, manures, and hedging compared with the Hereford Group, and of labour, rent and hedging compated 76 with the Exmoor Group, and the total cost of pasture per acre in this group at £3 10s. 2d. is approximately 5s. Od. higher than in the Hereford Group, and nearly 7s. Od. per acre higher than for the Exmoor Group. Hay/Silage Land.—The average cost per acre, exclusive of all cutting and harvesting costs, is set out in Table 25.

TABLE 25 *Cost of Hay/Silage Land; Average Cost Per Acre

N.W. Hereford Brendons Exmoor (1) Labour: £ s. d. £ s. d. £ s. d. Man 2 7 5 3 11 0 Horse 2 5 6 Tractor 210 3 5 5 8 Total Labour 57 9 1 172 (2) Manures (Net): Farmyard Manure 4 3 611 1 0 2 Artificials . 1 2 0 16 1 9 2 Total Manures 1 6 3 1 3 0 1 9 4 (3) Field Costs: Rent 19 10 19 7 13 5 Lime 63 310 511 Hedging, etc. . 8 2 14 0 11 1 Total Field Costs 1143 1175 1105 (4) Implements; Repairs and Depreciation . 50 50 50 (5) Ley Establishment 17 3 12 7 16 11 TOTAL COST . 4 8 4 47 1 j 4 18 10

* Excluding all cutting and harvesting costs. The average total cost per acre of this type of grassland is higher than the corresponding cost for Pasture by 17s. per acre in the Brendon Group, 23s. in the Hereford and 35s. per acre in the Exmoor Group. Most of this difference is due to the considerably heavier application of manures applied to the mowing land, and to the extra labour costs associated with the application of these manures, particularly farmyard manure, and with operations such as rolling, harrowing and stones picking. 77 The cost of farmyard manure was very much higher in the Exmoor Group, and, although .the cost of artificial manures was considerably lower, total manures in this group were higher than in the other two groups. Farmyard manure was applied to nearly 20 per cent of mowing land in the Exmoor Group compared with 6.4 per cent in the Brendons and only 2-1 per cent in the Hereford Group. In the case of phosphatic manures the order is reversed; over 37 per cent of mowing land in the Hereford Group receiving either slag or superphosphate compared with 22 per cent in the Brendons and less than 9 per cent in the Exmoor Group. Nitrochalk was applied to hayland to an appreciable extent in the Hereford Group, over 12 per cent of the total area being dressed at an average rate of 21 cwt. per acre; only one farm in the Brendons and none in the'Ex- moor Group used any straight nitrogenous fertiliser on mow- ing land. Compound fertilisers were applied to 20 per cent of hay land in the Brendon Group but to only 8 to 9 per cent in the other two groups, but the average rate of application was 3.56 cwt. per acre in the Exmoor group compared with 2.17 cwt. in the Brendon, and only 1.68 cwt. per acre in the Hereford Group. Labour costs, both for manual and tractor labour were very much higher in the Exmoor Group, mainly due to the extra costs involved in applying farmyard manure to the large area of mowing land treated in this group, but, to a certain ex- tent, manual labour costs were also higher owing to the higher proportion of water-meadows cut for hay in this group. Costs other than labour and manures show the same general vari- ations between the groups already noted in the case of pasture land. Total costs per acre for hay/silage land in the Exmoor Group at a little short of E5 per acre were 10s. per acre higher than in the Hereford Group and nearly 12s. greater than in the Brendon.

Grazing.—The average cost per acre of pasture land, and hay/silage land, together with the average cost per adjusted acre of grazing are summarised below. The cost of grazing consists of the cost of pasture land plus the cost of the after- math of the hay/silage land, and the calculation of the cost per acre of grazing involves adjustment of the acreage of grassland, not only in respect of rough grazings, but also for that propor- tion of the annual production of the mowing land attributable to the hay and silage crops removed. The cost per adjusted 78 acre of grazing is thus an estimate of the average cost of pro- viding one acre of grazing for the full twelve months.

Average Cost Per Acre*

Hereford Brendon Exmoor Group Group Group In-ground Hill £ s. d. £ s. d. £ s. d. £ s. d. Pasture land 3 5 3 3102 3 3 4 3 7 Hay/Silage land . 4 8 4 4 7 1 4 18 10 Grazing 3 8 1 3 11 10 3 5 5 3 7

* Per adjusted acre except for the Exmoor hill land where the costs are per actual acre.

The cost of pasture per acre is highest in the Brendon Group and, although the cost of hay/silage land is lowest in this group, the preponderance of pasture land in total grazing land is such that the Brendons also have the highest cost per acre of grazing. Conversely, although the cost per acre of mowing land in the Exmoor Group is considerably higher than in the other two, the cost of pasture is lower, and consequently the cost of grazing per acre is lowest in this group. The vari- ation between the groups in the cost per acre of grazing is, how- ever, slightly less than in the case of either pasture or mowing land; and ranges from £3 5s. 5d. in the Exmoor Group to £3 us. 10d. per acre in the Brendons. The level of the cost per acre of grazing, considered alone, does not shed much light on the relative economy of grassland management in these groups; to acquire any significance it must be related to the quantity of grazing provided. Further, a year's grazing is not a homogeneous quantity, as the quantity and quality of the grazing varies considerably from season to season throughout the year. No attempt has been made, how- ever, to apportion the annual cost of grazing between periods shorter than the winter and summer six months, and even here the apportionment must be somewhat arbitrary. Under nor- mal conditions grass will grow for a longer period of the year under the wetter and more equable climatic conditions of the upland areas of S.W. Somerset than in the Hereford uplands, where rainfall and winter temperatures are lower. In the Bren- don Group, and for the in-ground of the Exmoor farms, one- fifth of the total annual cost of grazing has been charged to the winter six months and the remainder to the summer period; for 79 the Hereford Group, and for the Exmoor hill land, the corres- ponding proportion is one-sixth. In Table 26 the cost per acre of grazing for winter and sum- mer periods, the density of stocking and the average cost of grazing per cow-equivalent week are set out. A cow-equivalent week represents the average amount of grazing attributable to one cow, or its equivalent in grazing capacity in other stock, at grass day and night for one week. It does not, of itself, give any real indication of the amount of grazing actually available; a cow may be at grass day and night for a week but will obtain little benefit from it if there is, in fact, little grazing available; on the other hand there may be so much grass available that the stock are unable to consume it all. Differences in the den- sity of stock carried on grassland can only measure relative productivity of grassland if the amount of grazing available per head is the same, and this will not often be the case.

TABLE 26

Average Cost Per Acre of Grazing, Stocking Per Acre and Cost of Grazing Per Cow- Equivalent Week: Winter and Summer Periods

COST OF GRAZING COW-EQUIVALENT COST PER WEEK PER PER ACRE WEEKS PER ACRE COW-EQUIVALENT Winter Summer Winter Summer Winter Summer

GROUP: No. No. s. d. s. d. N.W. Hereford 0.57 2.83 12.84 18.66 9 3 01 Brendons . 0-72 2-88 10.92 15-17 1 3i 3 91 Exmoor: Farm 0.66 2.62 8.96 10.19 1 5/ 5 1/ Hill 0.03 0-15 1.65 4.09 4i 8i

The density of stocking of the grassland, in both winter and summer periods, was highest in the Hereford Group and lowest in the Exmoor Group. Although the cost per acre of grazing is higher in the Brendon than in the Hereford Group, the stock carried per acre was lower, with the result that the cost of sum- mer grazing per cow-equivalent averaged 3s. 9-id. per week in the former group and 3s. 0-1--d. in the latter. The corresponding cost for in-ground grazing in the Exmoor Group, which carried but little more stock during the summer than in the winter, was but for the hill land it was only 8d. per cow-equivalent per week. However, as 44 per cent of total stock, and 47 per cent of total sheep, on a cow-equivalent basis, are carried on the hill grazing during the summer period, the average cost of 80 grazing on in-ground and hill land combined is approximately 3s. 21-d. per week, rather less than in the Brendon Group but slightly more than in the Hereford. As this investigation is concerned with sheep it is only appropriate that these unit costs for grazing should also be set out on the basis of the average cost per ewe per week. In this connection it should be noted that for the small Exmoor Horn ewes, eight have been taken as equivalent in grazing capacity to a cow or adult bullock during the summer period, and five in the winter; for other breeds of sheep the conversion ratio is six ewes per cow in the summer and four in the winter.

. Average Cost of Grazing Per Ewe Per Week

Winter Summer Six months Six months GROUP: d. d. Hereford 2.3 6.1 Brendon 3•9 7.6 Exmoor: Farm 3.6 7.7 Hill. 0.9 1-1 Farm and Hill . 2.8 4.6

During the winter period the cost per ewe per week for grazing averaged approximately 2-1-d. in the Hereford Group, 2-43-d. for Exmoor, and nearly 4d. per week in the Brendons. In the sum- mer six months the hill land makes a much larger contribution to grazing on Exmoor, and the cost in this group at 41d. per ewe per week was considerably lower than in the Hereford and Brendon Groups, where the cost averaged 6d. and 7-1d. per week respectively. The relatively high cost of grazing in the Brendon Group compared with the Hereford Group is thus seen to be due to the higher cost of grazing per acre combined with a lower den- sity of stocking. The low cost in the Exmoor Group is due to the very low cost of grazing provided by the relatively large areas of hill grazing attached to these farms. It certainly can- not be assumed however that sheep in the Exmoor Group obtain as large a supply offood nutrients from a week's grazing as do sheep in the other two groups; hill grazing is undoubtedly obtained at a very low cost, but to a considerable extent this is merely a. measure of the lower value of the grazing both per acre and per ewe per week of this class of land. On the other hand it cannot be assumed that because the cost of grazing per acre is higher and the density of stocking lower in the Brendon 81 than in the Hereford Group that the quantity of nutrients provided by the grassland, either per acre or per head per week, is therefore greater in the former group. There is no means of ascertaining whether or not this is the case, but, in view of the much higher level of production achieved in the Hereford Group, and of the high level of nutrition clearly necessary to sustain this level, it would be surprising if the amount of grazing provided in the Hereford Group was not at least as high as in the Brendon Group; in this connection the higher proportion of new leys in the Hereford Group may be of significance. (3) Labour Costs The cost of manual labour per 100 acres shows less differ- ence between the groups than any other item of cost, and varies only from £174 in the Exmoor Group to £185 per 100 acres in the Hereford Group. Tractor labour, associated mainly with the feeding of hand-fed foods and the shifting of hurdles, netting, etc., is considerably lower in the Exmoor Group, but is offset by the higher cost of riding ponies in this group. Man- ual labour costs account for over 90 per cent of total labour costs in all groups, and for over 95 per cent in the Hereford Group. In Table 27 the total number of man-hours employed per 100 acres for the twelve months upon the various operations associated with sheep husbandry are set out for each group. There are some interesting differences between the groups, but none is of major importance. Routine shepherding accounts for approximately 57 to 62 per cent of total annual labour in all groups, slightly more in the Brendon Group and slightly less in the other two. Of labour requirements, additional to routine attention to sheep, extra time put in during the lambing period is by far the most important, accounting for between 46 to 50 per cent of other labour, and for about one-fifth of total annual labour in all groups. The only other operation of major importance is shearing, which absorbs 6.0 per cent of total annual labour requirements in the Hereford Group, 9.3 per cent in the Brendons and 10.5 per cent in the Exmoor Group. If it is reckoned that for the whole operation of shearing, i.e. preparation of pens and barn, erecting and preparing the clippers, collecting and returning the sheep, tying wool, etc., as well as the actual shearing, the labour requirements for a lamb are equal to two-thirds of an 82 TABLE 27

Analysis of Manual Labour on Sheep: Average Number of Man-Hours Per 100 Acres Per Year, and as Per Cent of Total Annual Man-Hours

N.W. Hereford Brendons Exmoor Hours Hours Hours Routine Shepherding 845.9 57.5 894.0 61-9 812.8 58.6 Other Labour: Lambing . 291.3 19.8 276.9 19-2 266.5 19.2 Tail and Castrate Lambs 22-8 1.6 18.0 1.3 21.3 1.5 Docking and Trimming 57-7 3.9 26.7 1.8 36.7 2.7 Innoculating, drenching, etc. . 40.4 2-7 16.3 1.1 17.1 1.2 Washing Sheep . 20.1 1.4 4-1 0.3 Shearing . 89.0 6.0 133.7 9.3 146.0 10.5 Dipping and Spraying . 37-1 2.5 28.8 2.0 38.6 2.8 Sorting and Drafting 31.6 2.1 16.6 1.2 18.9 14 Foot-Rotting 17.3 1.2 4.6 0.3 3-5 0.2 Sundry 18.7 1.3 23.4 1.6 26.5 19 Total Other Labour . 626.0 42-5 549.1 38.1 575.1 41.4 TOTAL LABOUR 1471-9 100.0 1443.1 100.0 1387.9 100.0 adult sheep, then the overall time required for the shearing operation, per 100 adult sheep, is 24 man-hours in the Hereford Group,38 in the Exmoor Group and 40 in the Brendon. Much of the extra time in the Exmoor Group is accounted for by the time-consuming task of gathering the sheep from the hill, but there is no really apparent reason why time spent shearing in the Brendons should be so high. It is true that flocks are smaller in this group, which would result in the" overhead " labour requirements for preparation for shearing being higher per sheep, and the sheep are larger with heavier fleeces, but, even when these factors are allowed for, it is clear that shearing in the Brendon Hills proceeds at a slower tempo than among the larger flocks in the other two groups. Probably the main reason for this is that the considerable gangs of shearers mus- tered in the Exmoor Group to deal expeditiously with the shearing cannot be got together so readily in the Brendons, where many farmers, owing to the prior claims of a herd of milking cows, cannot give undivided day-long attention to the sheep even at shearing time. The monthly distribution of manual labour over the year is set out in Table 28, and the same data is also represented diagrammatically. 83 TABLE 28

Monthly Distribution of Man-Hours on Sheep; Per 100 Acres and as Per Cent of Total Annual Man-Hours

N.W. Hereford Brendons Exmoor Hours % Hours % Hours % November 92.2 6.3 62.0 4.3 63.2 4.5 December 85.9 5.8 83.4 5.8 68.1 5.0 January 88.6 6.1 89.3 6.2 70.7 5.1 February 83.2 5.6 127.6 8.8 68.7 5.0 March . 333.6 22.7 268.4 18.6 2078. 15.0 April . 132.2 9.0 160.9 11.2 227.2 16.4 May 125-3 8.5 112.2 7.8 125.1 9.0 June 165.6 11.2 213.7 14.7 214.3 15.4 July . 89.6 6.1 89.2 6.2 94.6 6.8 August . 107.5 7.3 92.0 6.4 93.1 6-7 September 91.3 6.2 67.6 4.6 64.8 4.6 October 76.9 5.2 76.8 5.4 90.3 6.5 YEAR 1471.9 100.0 1443.1 100.0 1387.9 100.0

The four months March to June, which cover the lambing, washing and shearing operations, is the period of really heavy labour requirements. During these four months 51 per cent of total annual labour requirements are incurred in the Hereford Group, 52 per cent in the Brendon and 56 per cent in the Exmoor Group. Two main peaks occur during this period in all groups, a major peak associated with lambing and a smaller one at shearing. In the Hereford Group lambing is concen- trated mainly in March, and the peak in this month is more pronounced than in the Brendon Group where it is spread over the three months February to April, or in the Exmoor Group where it is nearly equally shared between March and April. On the other hand the peak associated with shearing is much less pronounced in the Hereford Group, being spread over the months of May as well as June, in contrast to the two Somerset groups where shearing was entirely restricted to the single month of June. April is the month of maximum labour require- ments in the Exmoor Group, and March in the other two groups; during these peak months labour requirements for the sheep are approximately equal to 11 man-hours per day per 100 acres in the Hereford Group, 9 in the Brendon and 8 in the Exmoor Group, compared with 2 to 3 man-hours per day in all groups during the period September to February when labour requirements are at their minimum. 84 Monthly Distribution of Manual Labour Requirements for Sheep Man Hours N.W. HEREFORD BRENDONS EXMOOR 34o.

300 •

200 - 00

100

ti`4'714>4"4 `.-4>E4 o ocs 0 0 CD pj oci 0 0 'CI AD 6') P • t< `< f-t. P • < P • (4) Miscellaneous Expenses The average cost of Miscellaneous Expenses is set out in Table 29. The total cost for the Hereford Group is consider- ably higher than for the two Somerset groups.

TABLE 29 Miscellaneous Expenses: Average Cost Per 100 Acres

N.W. Hereford Brendons Exmoor SHEEP EQUIPMENT: £ £ £ Depreciation . 16.9 9.0 6.3 Repairs . 0.1 0.7 0.6 Grinding Clippers 1.0 1-3 0.9 Total 18.0 11.0 7.8 MARKETING: Commission and Tolls 20.7 9.7 8.1 Transport 7.9 4.8 4.8 Total 28.6 14.5 12.9 Veterinary Fees and Medicines 12-5 6.9 6.5 Dips and Sprays . 11.1 7-3 4.3 Sheep-dog Costs 5.4 10.0 6.2 Fuel and Oil 1.2 1-3 1.2 Marking Fluid . 0.7 1.2 1.1 Wool Cord - 1.1 1.0 Castration Fees . 0.9 0.4 0.1 Other Expenses . 0.1 0.1 - Total Miscellaneous Expenses 78.5 53.8 41.1

• Marketing expenses, which include the cost of transporting sheep to and from market or to grading centres, together with auctioneers' commission, market tolls, etc., account for the largest item of cost in all groups, but this cost in the Hereford Group at £28.6 per 100 acres is approximately twice as great as in the other two groups. All major items of Miscellaneous Expenses are higher in the Hereford Group, with the excep- tion of the cost of maintaining the sheep dogs (exclusive of the proportion of total costs chargeable to cattle), which was con- siderably higher in the Brendon Group where the proportion of sheep to sheep dogs was lower than in the other two groups. Total Miscellaneous Expenses averaged £78.5 per 100 acres in the Hereford Group and accounted for nearly 9 per cent of total production costs compared with £53.8 in the Brendons 86 and £41.1 per 100 acres in the Exmoor Group, and for 7 to 71- per cent of total production costs in the two Somerset Groups.

TOTAL COSTS The higher level of total production costs per 100 acres in the Hereford Group is almost entirely due to the provision of considerably greater quantities of foods of all types, especially of cake, corn and hay, and only to a slightly lesser extent of folded roots. Total food costs per 100 acres were approxi- mately 21 times as high in the Hereford Group as in the Bren- dons and 21- times as great as in the Exmoor Group. Grazing costs were highest in the Brendon Group where higher per-acre costs, principally for labour, manures and hedging are com- bined with a lower level of stocking per acre; the low cost of grazing in the Exmoor Group is due to the very cheap grazing provided by the relatively large areas of hill land. Differences in the level of other costs, i.e. labour costs and miscellaneous expenses, are unimportant.

PRODUCTION, PRODUCTION COSTS AND MARGIN Although the primary basis of analysis throughout this report is "per 100 adjusted acres devoted solely to the sheep enterprise" the results may also be presented in a number of other different ways. In Table 30 the average level of produc- tion, production costs and margin have been calculated per 100 acres, per £100 rent, per £100 of capital, and per £100 of production. The results, per 100 acres, show a level of production in the Hereford Group very much above the other two groups, and, although the achievement of this level of output has involved a very substantial increase in the cost of foods, the increase in production resulting is proportionately greater, and the margin per WO acres in this group, at only a little short of £1,000, is £200 greater than in the Exmoor Group, and £460 greater per 100 acres than in the Brendons. A comparison on the basis of a unit area of land devoted solely to sheep takes no account of the different potentialities of the land in the three groups. The relative rental value of land in different districts is not a very satisfactory measure of the natural productivity of the land in the districts concerned, and still less so under the rather chaotic structure of present- day rents, but it is the only basis generally available which at 87 TABLE 30

Production, Production Costs and Margin, Calculated Per 100 Acres, Per £100 Rent, Per E100 Capital and Per £100 Production

Production Production Costs Margin

PER 100 ACRES: E E E Hereford . . . 1863 881 982 Brendons . . . 1251 726 525 Exmoor . . . 1371 584 787 PER £100 RENT: Hereford . . 1856 878 978 Brendons . . . 1246 723 523 Exmoor . . . 2153 928 1225

PER £100 VALUATION OF SHEEP AND EQUIPMENT: Hereford . . . 73-8 34.9 38.9 Brendons . . . 70.2 40.7 29.5 Exmoor . . . 78-1 33-3 44.8 PER £100 PRODUCTION: Hereford . . . 100.0 47.3 52.7 Brendons . . . 100.0 58.0 42.0 Exmoor . . . 100.0 42.6 57.4

least makes some allowance, however rough, for relative levels of natural productivity. A comparison of production and costs per £100 of rent of the land should therefore enable a better appreciation of the achievements of farms on different classes of land to be made than is indicated by a comparison based on area, which may merely measure differences in natural productivity. • The rental value of 100 adjusted acres of land in the Hereford and Brendon Group is a fraction over £100, and the figures for production, costs and margin per £100 rent are only slightly different from the corresponding figures calcu- lated for 100 acres. In the Exmoor Group the rental value per 100 adjusted acres is less than £65, and production per £100 rent is equal to £2,153, nearly £300 greater than in the Hereford Group and £900 per £100 rent greater than in the Brendon Group. The average margin per £100 rent at £1,225 in the Exmoor Group is considerably more than twice as high as in the Brendon Group and nearly £250 greater than in the Here- ford Group. Although, owing to the unsatisfactory nature of rent as a measure of relative natural productivity, no great precision attaches to these figures yet, nevertheless, they do 88 suggest that within the limits set by natural conditions of soil and climate, the sheep farmers on Exmoor are achieving at least as high a proportion of potential production as are the farmers in the Hereford Group, and both are doing very con- siderably better than those in the Brendon Group. Expressed per £100 valuation of sheep together with sheep equipment, differences in the level of production, cost and margin between the groups are much less marked. Production was highest in the Exmoor Group at £78.1 and lowest in the Brendon at £70.2 but in the case of production costs the position is reversed, with the highest figure in the Brendon Group and the lowest in the Exmoor. Margin per £100 of valuation aver- aged £44.8 in the Exmoor Group, some £6 higher than in the Hereford Group and £15 higher than in the Brendons. If production is related directly to production costs, then for every £100 of production achieved, an input on the cost side equal to £58.0 is required in the Brendon Group, compared with £47.3 in the Hereford and £42.6 per £100 production in the Exmoor Group. Each £100 of production involves an average total input of foods and grazing combined, costing, on average, £38.1 in the Brendon Group, £32.7 in the Hereford Group, but only £25.7 in the Exmoor Group. Direct labour costs, however, are lowest in the Hereford Group at £10.4 per £100 production compared with £13.9 in the Exmoor and £15.6 in the Brendon groups.

Regional Analyses During the course of this investigation some more specific questions concerning sheep management policy came to light in the three groups, and this opportunity is taken to investigate, within the limitations imposed by the available data, three of the more important of these problems, one in each of the groups. In the Hereford Group the main point of interest is whether a greater economic advantage is gained by concentrating upon the production of draft ewes to the greatest possible extent, a policy which involves disposal of the wether lambs at an early stage, or whether better results are obtained by feeding-out the wether lambs off roots with the necessary corollary that if this practice is followed then, for any given acreage devoted to sheep, fewer breeding ewes can be maintained. In the Brendon Hill Group the problem most frequently encountered con- cerns the relative advantage of a self-contained as against a 89 flying-flock of breeding ewes. In the case of the Exmoor Group the main question involves the optimum density of stocking with sheep, and specifically whether fewer sheep main- tained at a rather higher level of nutrition would lead to better economic results.

HEREFORD GROUP: Draft Ewes or Fat Lambs In order to test the relative advantage of concentration upon the production of draft ewes as against a policy of dividing the emphasis between draft ewes and fat lamb and wether produc- tion, the farms in the Hereford Group have been divided into two groups according to the proportion of breeding ewes to total sheep on hand at the time of the opening valuation. This results in a HIGH GROUP on the one hand in which 70 per cent of total sheep consist of breeding ewes and, on the other, of a Low GROUP in which breeding ewes account for just under 50 per cent of total sheep. In the High Group the balance of sheep consists entirely of lambs, but in the Low Group about 8 per cent of sheep other than ewes consist of two-tooth wethers. Both groups winter virtually all their ewe lambs, but, whereas the Low Group retained all their wether lambs to feed out, and in several cases bought further wether lambs to feed, in the High Group over 42 per cent of wether lambs were disposed of, off grass, before the winter-feeding period com- menced. Stocking with ewes was 10 per cent greater per 100 acres in the High Group, but wether lambs and hoggs were over 25 per cent fewer; total stocking with sheep in the High Group, on a ewe-equivalent basis, was 7 per cent lower than in the Low Group, but this difference lasted only during the winter months. As the wether lambs and hoggs were fed out the relative density of stocking with sheep changed and, after lambing, owing to the larger number of ewes and lambs carried in the High Group the density of sheep per 100 acres was greater in that group for most of the summer, falling below the Low Group again in the later part of the summer as the wether lambs and draft ewes in the former group were sold off. The average total valuation of sheep per 100 acres was closely comparable in both groups, as the larger proportion of ewes in the High Group offsets the greater number of lambs in the Low Group. Net sales of sheep, and the production of sheep, however, are both nearly one-quarter higher per 100 acres in the High Group; production of sheep was equal to nearly 68 per cent of the total sheep valuation in the High 90 TABLE 31

Average Production, Production Costs and Margin Per 100 Acres For Two Groups in N.W. Hereford According to Proportion of Breeding Stock Maintained

High Low Group Group £ E PRODUCTION: Closing Valuation . . . . 2332-8 2377-0 Sales . . . . 1638-3 1327.5 Total . . . . . 3971-1 3704-5 Opening Valuation . . . . 2262.5 2223-8 Purchases . . . . . 179-4 245-0 Total . . . . . 2441-9 2468-8 Production of Sheep . . . 1529.2 1235-7 Wool Sales . . . . . 493-0 463-1 Total Production . . . 2022-2 1698-8 PRODUCTION COSTS: Purchased Foods . • • 11-2 43-5 • Home-grown Foods: Folded Roots . . . . 121-7 225•9 Hand-fed Roots . . . . 39-7 80.7 Corn ...... 30-2 30-3 Hay ...... 69-3 72-6 Other ...... 0.1 1.9 Total Home-grown . . 261-0 411-4 Grazing ...... 221-6 271-9 Total Foods and Grazing . 493-8 726-8 Labour ...... 158•7 230-1 Miscellaneous Expenses . . . 76-7 80-3 Total Costs . . . . 729•2 1037-2 Margin: Surplus . . . . 1293-0 661.6

Group compared with only 56 per cent in the Low Group. Sales of draft ewes, both by number and value were approxi- mately 10 per cent greater in the High Group, while, owing to the greater number of wether lambs available for disposal in this group as a result of the greater number of ewes maintained, total sales of lambs exceeded that oflambs and hoggs combined in the Low Group, despite the fact that in the latter group 65 per cent of lambs were sold fat off roots compared with less 91 than 30 per cent in the High Group. The extra value per head realised for the wether lambs fed out off roots in the Low Group does not even offset the fewer lambs available for disposal in this group, and, with fewer draft ewes for sale, and slightly lower wool sales owing to the fewer sheep on hand at shearing time, total production in the Low Group at £1,699 per 100 acres was £323, equal to 16 per cent, lower than in the High Group. On the cost side, the policy of feeding out the majority of wether lambs is associated with a very marked increase in food costs. Purchased concentrates and hand-fed roots are both higher in the Low Group, but the really outstanding difference between the two groups relates to the cost of providing the necessary root crops for folding; the average cost in the Low Group at £226 per 100 acres is over £100 greater than in the High Group, while for total home-grown foods the cost is £150 per 100 acres greater in the Low Group. On average, 16.7 acres of roots for folding were provided per 100 acres in the Low Group,compared with less than 9 acres in the High Group and this difference is entirely accounted for by the much greater requirements for the fattening lambs in the former group. The cost of grazing for sheep was also higher by £50 per 100 acres in the Low Group, due to a combination of a higher proportion of leys and heavier manuring of grassland with a slightly lower rate of stocking in this group, but the higher cost of grazing, unlike the higher cost of folded roots, does not appear to have any very direct connection with the system of sheep management practised. Labour costs, however, are sub- stantially higher in the Low Group, and most of the extra costs are incurred in the feeding of the much greater acreage of folded roots in this group. Total production costs in the Low Group at £1,037 per 100 acres were £308, equal to 42 per cent, higher than in the High Group and, of this total, £180 for total foods and £70 per 100 acres for labour may be directly attri- buted to the extra costs incurred in feeding out wether lambs off roots during the winter. Despite the lower level of costs in the High Group, production is considerably higher in this group owing to the larger proportion and greater number of breeding ewes maintained per 100 acres, and the margin in the High Group at £1,293 per 100 acres is very nearly double that in the Low Group. Although the number of farms in each group is small, the magnitude of the difference in margin between the two groups can leave no doubt but that, so long as the demand for four- tooth draft ewes of the Clun Forest breed persists at its present 92 level, much more satisfactory financial results are obtained when the maximum number of breeding ewes are maintained, and as few as possible of the wether lambs wintered on roots. This is not to say that the winter-fattening of sheep on specially grown root crops is in itself unprofitable, although the evidence here is that if any profit is left at all it can only be small; the point is that the resources devoted to the winter feeding of wether lambs are much more profitably utilised for the produc- tion of an increased number of draft ewes, at least under the economic circumstances and systems of management prevailing in the flocks studied in the N.W. Hereford Group.

BRENDON HILLS GROUP: Self-contained and Flying Flocks The question of whether a self-contained flock or a flying flock, for which ewe-replacements must be periodically pur- chased, is more profitable is intimately bound up with the question of breed policy; if a black-faced ram is used to cross with the native breed of Closewool sheep, with the object of producing a larger and more valuable lamb, the replacement of the ewe-stock by purchase becomes inevitable. Even where the flock is large enough to breed part of it pure to provide essential ewe-flock replacements, and to cross the remainder to a ram of a larger breed, then, owing to the necessarily much slower rate of turnover of the ewe-flock, the possibility of selling draft ewes is greatly curtailed. In fact, on analysis, this question of a self-contained as against a flying flock largely resolves itself into the question of whether it is better to be on balance a seller or a purchaser of draft ewes for breeding. Even a flying flock, producing cross-bred lambs, and purchasing replacements in the shape of two-tooth ewes, can also produce draft ewes as a main sale product, to an extent equal to that in a self-maintained flock. Indeed, in so far as yearling ewes do not have to be maintained, a flying flock of this type can, from any given acreage of land devoted to sheep, produce more draft ewes for sale than a self-maintained flock. The disadvantages from which this system of management suffers is that whereas the purchased two-tooth ewes will cost the owner of the flying flock 140s. to 150s. per head, the owner of a self-maintained flock can rear his replacements at a net cost very little greater than one-half of this figure. The more common system of management of a flying flock on the Brendon Hills however involves the purchase of older draft ewes which are bred, usually to a black-faced ram, for ag 93 long as they remain sound, after which they are either fed out or sold off for fattening. Among the ten flocks in the Brendon Group five are entirely self-contained for ewe-stock, and the remaining five are wholly or mainly maintained by purchase. Flocks in this group have accordingly been subdivided into a SELF-CONTAINED and a PURCHASED GROUP along this line of differentiation. The average number of ewes maintained per 100 acres was 153 in the Purchased Group at the time of the opening valu- ation in November, and 173 in the Self-contained Group, and the number of lambs on hand at that time was approximately 100 per 100 acres in both groups. However, whereas by the following spring the great majority of lambs, both wether and ewe, had been sold off in the Purchased Group, in the Self- contained Group most of the ewe lambs and a proportion of the wether lambs were still on hand, and consequently available for shearing, a circumstance that is primarily responsible for the considerably higher level of wool sales in this group. Total sales of sheep, together with valuation changes, averaged £964 per 100 acres in the Purchased Group and £801 in the Self- contained Group. The total number of sheep sold per 100 acres averaged 150 in each group and, of these, 50 in the Pur- chased Group consisted of ewes, compared with 43 in the Self- contained Group. Of total ewes in the opening valuation, 33 per cent were disposed of during the year in the former group, compared with 25 per cent in the latter; of total ewes sold, however, only 34 per cent in the Purchased Group were draft ewes for further breeding, compared with over 95 per cent in the Self-contained Group. Although over half of the cull ewes in the Purchased Group were graded, the average price realised by all ewes sold in this group was only £4 us. Od. per head compared with £6 8s. Od per ewe for those sold in the Self- contained Group, and total sales of ewes in the latter group exceeded those in the former by approximately £45 per 100 acres, despite the smaller number sold. Purchases of ewes averaged 36, at a cost of £212 per 100 acres, in the Purchased Group, very nearly as much as the total realised by the 50 ewes sold per 100 acres in this group and, as no ewes at all were pur- chased in the Self-contained Group, the net advantage gained by the latter group on transactions in ewes is over £250 per 100 acres. This advantage, however, is practically offset by the greater number and higher average price realised by the lambs and hoggs sold in the Purchased Group. In this group, not only are all wether lambs and virtually all ewe lambs sold, 94 but, being mainly cross-bred to rams of larger and more prolific breeds, their average value per head is greater; also a higher proportion were graded out in this group. The average value of lambs sold was nearly 10s. per head higher in the Pur- chased Group, and 12s. per head higher for hoggs.

TABLE 32 Average Production, Production Costs and Margin Per 100 Acres For Two Groups in the Brendons According to Method of Ewe Flock Replace- ment

Self- Purchased Contained PRODUCTION: Closing Valuation 1610.3 1758.2 Sales . 781-5 847.4 Total . 2391-8 2605.6 Opening Valuation 1428.2 1804-1 Purchases 230.9 24.3 Total . 1659.1 1828.4 Production of Sheep 732.7 777.2 Wool Sales 448.1 526.5 Total Production . 1180.8 1303.7 PRODUCTION COSTS: Purchased Foods . 25.9 3.0 Home-grown Foods: Folded Roots 128.9 97.4 Hand-fed Roots 39.6 43.8 Corn . 0.5 Hay . 1.8 4.9 Other . 1.2 1.6 Total Home-grown 171.5 148.2 Grazing . 349.2 272.4 Total Foods and Grazing 546.6 423.6 Labour . 1943. 196.8 Miscellaneous Expenses 60.4 48.8 Total Costs . 801-3 669.2 Margin: Surplus 379.5 634.5

95 The higher average value realised for the cross-bred lambs and hoggs, together with the greater numbers sold in the Purchased Group is not sufficient, however, to offset the heavy cost of replacement ewes purchased and the much lower revenue from the sales of draft ewes in this group, with the result that the total production of sheep in the Self-contained Group was some £45 per 100 acres greater. Wool sales also were higher by nearly £80 per 100 acres in the Self-contained Group, due mainly to the greater number of yearling ewes car- ried in this group at shearing time. Total production of sheep and wool combined averaged £1,304 per 100 acres in the Self- contained Group, some £120 greater than in the Purchased Group. In itself, the difference in the level of production between the two groups is not of vital dimensions and, in any case, only assumes significance when related to differences in the level of production costs. The Self-contained Group, with a level of production higher by £120 per 100 acres, has a total produc- tion cost which, at £669, is £130 per 100 acres lower than in the Purchased Group, and the margin is consequently over £250 per 100 acres greater in the former group. Differences in the average cost of labour and miscellaneous expenses are unimportant, and practically the whole difference between the groups centres upon the level of foods and grazing costs. Of all sheep sold in the Purchased Group 40 per cent were sold fat compared with only 13 per cent in the Self- contained Group, and this difference in the proportion of sheep fed out undoubtedly accounts for at least the greater propor- tion, if not the whole, of the higher cost of foods and of grazing in the Purchased Group. Folded roots averaged 14 acres in the Purchased Group compared with 10-1 acres in the Self- contained Group, at an extra cost of £30 per 100 acres; total foods were over £45 per 100 acres greater in this group. The majority of sheep graded, however, were fed out off grass, and the cost of grazing was not far short of £80 higher per 100 acres in the Purchased Group. The cost of grazing, per acre of grass- land, was almost exactly 20s. higher in this group; all items of cost were higher, but especially manures, which were double. However, in spite of the higher cost of the grassland, the level of stocking in the Purchased Group was, on average, 17 per cent lower. The productivity of the grassland in the Purchased Group, particularly in view of the much heavier manuring, was cer- tainly higher than in the Self-contained Group, and, with a 96 lower intensity of stocking, the amount of food nutrients available per head of stock must have been significantly higher in the former group, and the output of sheep in terms of lb. of meat produced was almost certainly greater. In terms of cash income produced, however, production was lower in the Pur- chased Group,and, in relation to the cost offoods and grazing, it was very considerably lower. This is not to say that the extra manuring and other attention received by the grassland in the Purchased Group which, in fact, was of modest dimensions in relation to current technical advice, was not justified; it does seem however that the extra productivity of the grassland in this group has not been utilised to the most favourable econ- omic purpose. The value of grazing can only be assessed finally in terms of the value of what it produces; from the economic point of view this value cannot be determined in terms of quan- tities of starch or protein equivalent, nor even in terms of lb. of live weight increase produced, since a lb. of live weight increase will have different money values according to what is produced. The evidence available from this investigation seems to suggest that on the Brendon Hills, only to a lesser degree than in the N.W. Hereford uplands, under present price-cost relationships, a lb. of live weight increase in the form of draft ewes commands a higher price at a lower cost than a similar increase in the form of fat or store sheep and lambs. A concentration upon the maximum production of draft ewes, and the breeding and rear- ing of ewe flock replacements, accompanied by the minimum of fattening, has resulted in significantly more favourable economic results in the Brendon Group than the policy of pur- chasing flock replacements, accompanied by the production of crossbred lambs for sale or for feeding out on the farm. - Although this analysis set out to determine the relative advantages of purchasing as against the rearing of ewe-flock replacements, the results, in the event, are seen to turn at least as much upon the question of the relative importance of the production of draft ewes as an end-product. In so far as the purchase of replacements inevitably follows from a policy of cross-breeding and, in practice, draft ewes are only produced as a main end-product where a self-contained flock is main- tained, the association of draft ewe production with self-con- tained flocks are but two facets of the same general system of management. The implication is, however, that better results are obtained from elf-contained flocks not so much because they are self-contained, but because they give rise to a high - proportion of draft ewes as their main sale product. 97 EXMOOR GROUP: Optimum level ofstocking with sheep In a previous investigation dealing with sheep on Exmoor* some evidence came to light which suggested that on farms relatively heavily stocked with sheep, the economic results achieved were more favourable, per 100 acres, than on those farms where stocking was less intensive. In order to study this point more closely than was possible previously, the farms in the Exmoor Group have been divided into two sub-groups according to the number of sheep carried per 100 acres at the time of the opening valuation. The result of this analysis is to yield a group of farms, the HIGH GROUP, where the density of stocking with sheep aver- aged 322 ewe-equivalents per 100 acres, 48 per cent greater than the corresponding figure of 217 ewe-equivalents in the Low GROUP. Differences in density of stocking are not associ- ated with differences in average size of unit; the area devoted solely to sheep averaged approximately 150 adjusted acres per farm in both groups. The number of breeding ewes averaged 154 per 100 acres in the High Group and 143 in the Low; lambs carried aver- aged 144 in the former group and 103 in the latter, per 100 acres. The most important difference between the groups how- ever is in relation to the number of hoggs maintained, 62 per 100 acres in the High Group and less than 5 in the Low Group. It is owing to the maintenance of flocks of two- and four-tooth wethers, in addition to a normal complement of breeding ewes, and to the retention of a higher proportion of wether lambs, which itself is a necessary corollary of the wether flocks, that the higher density of sheep stock in the High Group is due. The majority of farms in the High Group retain virtually all their lambs, both ewe and wether, while in the Low Group between 40 and 50 per cent of all wether lambs are sold off as stores at the end ofthe summer period. Ofthe hoggs maintained in the High Group, over 95 per cent were wether hoggs, of which three-quarters were two-tooth wethers and the remainder four-tooth. The total valuation of sheep per 100 acres in the High Group was naturally considerably greater than in the Low Group; the average value per head of all classes of sheep, was, however, comparable in the two groups. Although sales of sheep averaged approximately £660 per 100 acres in both groups, the average valuation of sheep in the closing valuation

* Op. cit. 98 TABLE 33

Average Production, Production Costs and Margin Per 100 Acres for Two Groups on Exmoor According to Density of Stocking of the Sheep Acreage.

High Low Group Group PRODUCTION: Closing Valuation 1987.9 1412-0 Sales . 666.2 656.7 Total . 2654.1 2068.7 Opening Valuation 1736.1 1410.2 Purchases 89.5 22.7 Total . 1825-6 1432.9 Production of Sheep 828.5 635.8 Wool Sales . . 671.9 533.0 Hill Sheep Subsidy . 43.6 39.1 Total Production . 1544.0 1207.9 PRODUCTION COSTS: Purchased Foods . 27.3 66.5 Home-grown Foods: Folded Roots 87.3 71.9 Hand-fed Roots 28.0 1-2 Corn . Hay . 5.8 3.3 Other . 2.1 2.2 Total Home-grown 123.2 78.6 Grazing . 226-1 185.2 Total Foods and Grazing 376.6 330.3 Labour . 235-2 148.1 Miscellaneous Expenses . 43.9 38-5 Total Costs . 655.7 516.9 Margin: Surplus 888.3 691.0 was £250 higher per 100 acres than the opening valuation in the High Group, compared with a corresponding increase of only £2 per 100 acres in the Low Group. Sheep numbers at the closing valuation were 10 per cent higher in the High Group, due almost entirely to an increase of over 60 per cent in the number of wether hoggs retained,a move clearly associated with a further increase in the size of the wether flocks. Thus, al- though sales of sheep were at the same level in both groups, 99 production of sheep at £829 per 100 acres in the High Group was nearly £200, or 30 per cent higher than in the Low Group. Sales of draft ewes at £250 per 100 acres in the Low Group were £65 higher than in the High Group, but in the case of the Exmoor Horn breed the economic importance of the produc- tion of a high proportion of draft ewes is much less than is the case with the breeds ofsheep found in the Hereford and Brendon groups. In the Hereford Group the average price realised by draft ewes was 50s. per head greater than for wether hoggs, and nearly 80s. greater than for lambs. In the Brendon Group the difference in favour of the draft ewe was 3s. per head com- pared with a hogg, and 22s. with a lamb; in the Exmoor Group the average price realised by wether hoggs was 9s. per head greater on average than for the draft ewes, a fact that seems to support the frequently made assertion that a high proportion of the draft ewes of the Exmoor Horn breed are purchased to feed out rather than for further breeding. Sales of lambs averaged nearly £200 per 100 acres in the Low Group compared with £40 in the High Group, and two farms accounted for all sales of lambs in the latter group. Practically all lambs disposed of in both groups were sold in the autumn store sales. Sales of hoggs averaged £190 per 100 acres in the Low Group but £410 in the High Group and, allow- ing for additions to the wether flocks at the end of the year, the total production of hoggs amounts to approximately £565 per 100 acres in this group, equal to double the production of ewes and lambs combined. In the Low Group, in contrast, total sales of ewes amounted to more than the sales of lambs and• hoggs combined. The relatively large number oftwo- and four- tooth wethers maintained in the High Group, which is prim- arily responsible for the considerably greater production of sheep in that group is also mainly responsible for the much higher level of wool sales which, at £672 per 100 acres in this group was nearly £140 greater than in the Low Group. Total production in the High Group averaged £1,544 per 100 acres, £336 greater than in the Low Group and, of this difference, production of sheep contributed £193, sales of wool £139.and Hill Sheep Subsidy £4, and by far the most important reason for the higher level of production of sheep and of wool in the High Group was the maintenance of wether flocks in addition to a normal complement of breeding ewes, a practice which was not followed among the farms in the Low Group. This increase of £336 per 100 acres in total production has been accompanied by an increase in expenditure in the High 100 Group of only £139 per 100 acres, with the result that the mar- gin in this group, at £888, is very nearly £200 per 100 acres greater than in the Low Group. This difference in margin is equivalent to approximately £300 per farm between the groups in faVour of the High Group. Of the increased costs per 100 acres in the High Group, total foods and grazing combined account for £46, labour for £87 and miscellaneous expenses for £6. Total home-grown foods were nearly £45 per 100 acres greater in the High Group, mainly due to extra provision of folded and hand-fed roots, but this increased cost is practically offset by a considerably heavier expenditure in the Low Group upon purchased foods, mainly winter keep off the farm. Grazing costs per 100 acres were £41 higher in the High Group. The cost of grazing per acre of grassland was approximately 10s. greater on the in- ground in the High Group, but slightly lower per acre of the hill grazings. Stocking of the in-ground was slightly lower in the winter but considerably greater in the summer months in the High Group, but in the case of the hill ground the position is reversed; stock carried per acre in the summer is slightly lower in the High Group, but considerably higher in the winter. The cost of grazing per head per week however.was lower both on the in-ground and on the hill in the High Group,a result which follows from the heavier stocking in this group, which itself is mainly due to the fact that the extra sheep carried in the High Group in the form of mature wether sheep enable much more effective use to be made of the hill grazings, particularly during the winter months. Total labour costs, per 100 acres, were more than 50 per cent higher in the High Group, both for routine shepherding and for special requirements such as lambing, shearing, etc. In this connection, however, two points should be borne in mind. Firstly, the number of sheep carried per 100 acres is nearly 50 per cent greater in the High Group; secondly, in the case of three out of the six farms in the High Group the hill land is at a distance from the in-ground, and in two of these three cases, and in one further case in this group, the hill land took the form of a common. Both of these factors add to the cost of shepherding in the High Group, and it may be con- cluded that in so far as the higher labour costs in this group are not directly associated with the larger number of sheep carried per 100 acres, they are largely fortuitous in origin. The outstanding feature of this comparison between these two groups of Exmoor farms relates to the system of manage- 101 ment practised in the High Group whereby a flock of wether sheep is maintained in addition to the usual complement of breeding ewes and ewe lambs for replacement. Sales of wether sheep form by far the most important product in this group, in contrast to the Low Group where draft ewes are the most important category of sheep sold, closely followed .by store lambs. Sales of lambs are of very slight importance in the High Group. Owing to the fact that the extra sheep main- tained in the High Group are adult wether sheep, the consider- able increase in production both of sheep and of wool has been obtained with a much less than proportional increase in the cost of foods and grazing, a circumstance that is attributable to the much more effective use that can be made of hill grazing over a longer period of the year by sheep of this type.

COST OF REARING A TWO-TOOTH EWE: Brendon and Exmoor Groups In an investigation* into sheep costs in S,W. Somerset covering the period November 1949 to October 1950, the aver- age cost of rearing a lamb up to the age of approximately eight months old was determined for groups of flocks in the Brendon and Exmoor areas. The majority of the flocks concerned in this previous investigation are also included in the survey forming the subject of this report, from which an assessment can be made covering groups of ewe lambs for a further twelve- month period. The combined results of these two investi- gations thus gives the total cost of rearing two-tooth ewes from the time of birth in February—April 1950, up to the time they enter the breeding flock in the autumn of 1951 at an average age of approximately 20 months. Results are available for six farms in the Brendon Group, covering 239 ewe hoggs, and for ten farms with a total of 805 hoggs in the Exmoor Group. In Table 34 the average cost of rearing ewe lambs from birth till eight months old is set out. This cost consists mainly of the cost of maintaining the breed- ing flock, including stock rams, for a twelve-month breeding cycle, together with the costs directly incurred for the lambs themselves; the gross cost thus arrived at is offset by the value of the wool derived from ewes, rams and lambs, to yield a net cost, which, divided by the number of lambs reared, gives the average cost of rearing, per lamb reared, up to eight months of age.

* Op. cit. 102 TABLE 34

Average Net Cost of Rearing, Per Lamb Reared, from Birth to Eight Months Old, 1949-50

Brendons Exmoor

(1) FOODS ADD GRAZING: £ s. d. £ s. d. (a) Folded Roots 11 9 4 1 (b) Hand-fed Roots 210 1 3 (c) Cake and Corn 1 8 2 (d) Hay . 5 10 Total Foods 16 8 6 4 (e) Grazing 1 2 6 15 4 Total Foods and Grazing 1192 1 1 8

(2) Labour. 17 9 15 4 (3) Miscellaneous▪ Expen▪ ses . 3 6 23 (4) Ewe-flock Depreciation . 17 7 17 3 Gross Cost 3180 2166 Less: Sales of Wool . 17 8 18 8 Net Cost . 3 0 4 1 17 10

The average gross cost per lamb was £3 18s. Od. in the Brendon Group and £2 16s. 6d. per head in the Exmoor; all important items of cost were higher in the former group, and especially for folded roots and grazing. Sales of wool shorn from ewes, rams and lambs, calculated per lamb reared, aver- aged 8.08 lb. in the Brendon Group and 7.94 lb. in the Exmoor Group, and the average price realised per lb. was 25-9d. and 28.1d. respectively. The average credit for wool sold was thus 17s. 8d. per lamb in the Brendon Group and 18s. 8d. in the Exmoor Group, and the net cost of rearing was £3 Os. 4d. per lamb reared in the former group and £1 17s. 10d. in the latter. In Table 35 the average cost of maintaining the ewe-hoggs for the following twelve months from November 1950 to October 1951 is set out. During this period the ewe lambs in- creased in age from eight to twenty months old on average, and at the end, in the great majority of cases, were transferred into the breeding flock. Total foods and grazing for the year averaged £1 12s. 3d. per head in the Brendon Group and 10s. per head less in the Exmoor Group. The cost of foods provided on the farm was considerably higher in the former group, but was largely offset by the cost of expensive winter keep off the farm incurred, for 103 TABLE 35

Average Net Cost of Rearing Per Ewe Hogg, from 8 to 20 Months Old. Period: 12 Months November 1950 to October 1951

Average per Hogg Brendons Exmoor £ s. d. £ s. d. (1) FOODS AND GRAZING: (a) Folded Roots 94 411 (b) Winter Keep 11 5 7 (c) Hand-fed Roots 23 (d) Hay . . 3 Total Foods 12 6 10 9 (e) Grazing 19 9 11 4 Total Foods and Grazing 1123 1 2 1 (2) Labour 11 3 9 3 (3) Miscellaneous Costs 1 3 9 Gross Cost per Hogg 2 4 9 1121 (4) Less: Sales of Wool 1132 1128 NET COST PER HOGG . 11 7 7

the ewe lambs, by a few farms in the Exmoor Group. Grazing costs are very much lower in the Exmoor Group owing to the considerable proportion of their time that the ewe hoggs spent upon the hill grazings during this period. The gross cost per hogg averaged £2 4s. 9d. per head in the Brendon Group and £1 12s. id. per head in the Exmoor Group. Sales of wool shorn from these ewe hoggs averaged £1 13s. 2d. per head in the Brendon Group at the high price prevailing for wool in 1951, and the net cost per head for the twelve months is thus 1 is. 7d. In the Exmoor Group the average value of wool sold per hogg, at £1 12s. 8d., was actually 7d. per head in excess of the gross cost; the value of wool produced was thus greater than the entire cost of keeping the animal for the twelve-month period. In Table 36 the average cost of rearing a two-tooth ewe replacement from birth to the time of entering the breeding flock is set out. Of the total gross cost at twenty months old, 64 per cent in the Brendon Group and 73 per cent in the Ex- moor Group was incurred during the first eight months. All items of cost, with the exception of winter keep off the farm, and of hay, were higher in the Brendon Group, the main differences being in relation to folded roots and grazing, and, 104 TABLE 36 Average Net Cost Per Head of Rearing a Two-Tooth Ewe. Period: Birth to 20 Months Old, 1949 to 1951

Brendons Exmoor £ s. d. £ s. d. (1) FOODS AND GRAZING: (a) Folded Roots 1 1 1 90 (b) Winter Keep 11 5 7 (c) Hand-fed Roots 5 1 1 3 (d) Cake and Corn 1 8 2 (e) Hay . 5 1 1 Total Foods 1 9 2 17 1 (f) Grazing . 2 2 3 1 6 8 Total Foods and Grazing 311 5 2 3 9 (2) Labour 1 9 0 1 4 7 (3) Miscellaneous Costs 49 30 (4) Flock Depreciation 17 7 17 3 Gross Cost per Ewe . 6 2 9 4 8 7 (5) Less: Sales of Wool 2 10 10 211 4 NET COST PER EWE 3 11 11 1173 to a lesser extent, for hand-fed roots and labour costs. The total gross cost per two-tooth ewe averaged £4 8s. 7d. in the Exmoor Group and nearly 35s. higher at £6 2s. 9d. per head in the Brendon Group. With wool sales averaging approximately £2 us. Od. per head in both groups, the net cost per ewe at the time of entering the flock in October 1951 was £3 1 is. 11d, per head in the Brendon Group and £1 17s. 3d. in the Exmoor Group; the average market value at that time for this class of sheep was £7 4s. Od. and £6 2s. Od per head respectively in the two groups.

SOME ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF WOOL PRODUCTION The Effect of the Reduction of Wool Prices in 1952 upon the Income from Wool Sales The sheep year 1950/1 coincided with high wool prices, which averaged 72d. per lb. for all wool of the 1951 clip. For the 1952 clip, however, the average price was reduced by 18d. per lb. to 54d., and it is of interest to note the effect of these changes both as they affect the price for individual classes of wool, and the overall receipts from wool sales in the three groups of farms studied. 105 The general reduction of 18d. per lb. in 1952 is equal to a fall of 25 per cent compared with the previous year. For the types of fleece wool most commonly encountered in the Here- ford Group, i.e. Diamond and Pick Teg, Pick and Super Ewe and Wether, which together account for over 86 per cent of total fleece wool sold in this group, the reduction in price ranges from 22d. to 231-d. per lb. for washed fleeces and from 18/d. to 20d. for greasy. In all cases, for both washed and greasy wool, the percentage reduction from the 1951 level is between 22.2 and 22-8 per cent. In the Exmoor Group, Exmoor Horn fleeces account for over 72 per cent by weight, and still more by value, of all fleece wool. This type of wool, however, not only shows a fall in price of 26d. to 26-1-d. per lb. for washed, and 221d. to 22-1d. for greasy, but the percentage fall is 25.9 to 26-5 per cent and 25-7 to 25.9 per cent for washed and greasy fleeces respectively. In short, the percentage fall for Exmoor Horn fleeces in 1952 was considerably greater than for fleece wool in the Hereford Group, and the price per lb. fell by approximately 3d. per lb. more for Horn fleeces. Sheep farmers in the Exmoor Group, compared with those in the Hereford Group, are thus relatively worse off in 1952 as a result of changes in the relative price levels for different types of wool by an amount per lb. of wool that is approximately equal to the special premium of 3d. per lb. paid for wool from hill sheep. The reason for the greater reduction, both absolute and proportional, in the price of Exmoor Horn wool is to be found in the relative market prices realised by different types of wool when the 1951 wool clip was sold to the trade. At the wool auctions Exmoor Horn wool realised a relatively lower market price, in relation to the far- mers' guaranteed price, than did most other types of wool, re- A vealing that it was over-valued in the farmers' price schedule; accordingly, when the price schedule for the 1952 clip was compiled a greater than average reduction was made for Exmoor Horn wool. In the Brendon Group two-thirds of the fleece wool falls in the Light and Heavy cross-bred categories, for which the price reduction ranges from 17d. to 18d. per lb. for washed, and 15d. to 15i-d. for greasy, with a percentage reduction of 21 to 23 per cent. The fall in the price of cross-bred wool is propor- tionally slightly greater than for the Hereford Group, but con- siderably less than for the Exmoor Group, and, as 20 per cent of fleece wool in the Brendon Group is graded as Exmoor Horn, the average fall in wool prices in this group in 1952, 106 although less than in the Exmoor Group, is greater than in the Hereford. In order to focus more clearly the effect upon the three groups of these changes in the relative prices of different types of wool, the quantity of each grade of wool sold during 1951 has been recalculated at 1952 prices for each of the groups, and the average reduction in price is set out below.

Average Reduction in Receipts from all Wool Sold: • 1952 Prices Compared with 1951

WASHED WOOL GREASY WOOL TOTAL WOOL

Per Per Per Per lb. cent Per lb. cent Per lb. cent d. d. d. GROUP: N.W. Hereford . 21.70 22.4 15.98 23.3 21.28 22.5 Brendons . 18-10 23.0 17.14 23.8 17-34 23.6 Exmoor . 2026. 25.1 2026. 25.1

The fall in the price per lb. over all wool sold was approxi- mately 211d. in the Hereford Group, 17d. in the Brendon Group and 201d. in the Exmoor Group, but it must be borne in mind that whereas the great majority of wool in the Hereford Group is washed wool, all wool sold in the Exmoor Group is greasy. The average percentage fall in prices is equal to 22-5 per cent in the Hereford Group but to 251 per cent in the Exmoor Group. Assuming that the same weight of wool, and the same pro- portions of washed and greasy wool are obtained in 1952 as were in fact obtained in 1951, and the grades of wool produced are the same in both years, and in the same proportion, and that the average level of deductions for inferior condition, bad preparation and other faults is identical in both years (in prac- tice there will be variations on all counts), then the effect of the reduction in wool prices in 1952 upon total wool sales per 100 acres will be a fall equal to approximately £108 in the Hereford Group, £116 in the Brendon Group and £151 per 100 acres in the Exmoor Group.

The Economic Advantage Derivedfrom Washing Sheep The economic advantage, if any, to be derived from wash- ing sheep prior to shearing is a matter that was frequently raised by farmers in the two Somerset groups. One aspect of 107 the problem, now shown to be of almost negligible importance, concerns the cost of the washing operation; labour is the,only cost involved here, and the average time required to collect, wash and return 100 adult sheep to pasture was 5-1-- man-hours in the Hereford Group, where virtually all sheep are washed, and 6/ man-hours on the three farms that washed sheep in the Brendon Group. Labour requirements would probably be considerably greater if washing were undertaken by farms in the Exmoor Group, owing to the necessity that would arise to gather sheep from the commons and hill grazings. The direct cost of washing, per adult sheep, averaged between 11-d. and 2)24. in the Hereford and Brendon groups, equivalent to 1-d. to id. per lb. of wool. This calculation however takes no account of indirect costs represented by losses of sheep resulting from the washing process. It was frequently suggested that such losses do sometimes result, directly or indirectly, but none did in fact take place on any of the farms included in this investi- gation during the season under review. The really important aspect of this question concerns the loss in weight of the fleece as a result of washing, in relation to the difference in price for washed as against greasy wool. There does not appear to be any real experimental evidence as to the extent of this loss in weight when washing is carried out under farm conditions, but the most commonly accepted estimate is. that a washed fleece, at the time of shearing will be, on average, about 15 per cent less in weight than if washing had not taken place. The actual loss will almost certainly vary, however, for individual sheep according to the type and condition of the fleece. Table 37 sets out the price per lb., on both the washed and greasy basis, at 1952 prices, for the main classes of wool produced in the three groups, the difference per lb. in favour of washed wool, the total value of a 6 lb. greasy fleece, and the corresponding value of the same fleece if washed, on the assumption that it will lose 15 per cent of the greasy weight on washing and be reduced to 5.10 lb. as a washed fleece. The difference in the price per lb. between washed and greasy wool among the types of wool most commonly recorded in the Hereford Group (the first five grades in Table 37) ranges from 131d. to 15d. per lb.; for Exmoor Horn fleeces the differ- ence is only 81d. to 91d. per lb., and for Light and Heavy Cross- bred fleeces, the typical wool produced in the Brendon Group, the range is from 81d. to 10d. per lb. The difference in total value per fleece on the washed as against the greasy basis ranges from is. Old. to is. 41d. per fleece in favour of the 108 TABLE 37

Price Per lb. of Wool and Total Value of Fleece on Washed and on the Greasy Basis for Certain Descriptions and Grades of Wool at 1952 Prices

TOTAL VALUE OF PRICE PER LB. FLEECE Excess of value: Price per lb. DESCRIPTION AND GRADE OF WOOL washed over washed as Washed Greasy greasy: per cent Washed Greasy Difference 5.10 lb. 6.0 lb. per fleece of greasy d. d. d. s. d. s. d. s. d. Diamond Teg: Ewe and Wether . 821 67/ 15.00 35 2 33 10+ +1 3+ 122.1 Pick Teg: Ewe and Wether 81 661 14.50 34 6+ 33 4+ +1 2 121.7 No. 77 62/ 14.25 32 81 31 4+ 122.7 Super:Eweand99 99 99 9Wethe;9 • • 791 651 14.00 33 10/ 32 10+ +1 0+ 121.2

99 99 99 99 No. 2 75+ 61/ 13.75 32 1 30 10+ * +1 2+ 122.3 Exmoor Horn No. 1 75+ 65/ 9.50 31 111 32 10+ —1 1+ 114.4 No. 2 72 63/ 8.25 30 7+ 31 10+ —1 31 112.9 Light Cross-bred No. 1 64+ 54+ 10.00 27 3+ 27 11 2 118.4

99 99 No. 2 60+ 52 8.50 25 8+ 26 0 115.9 Heavy Cross-bred No. 1 62+ 52/ 9.75 26 6/ 26 4+ + 21 118.5

99 99 No. 2 59 50+ 8.75 25 1 25 1+ 117.4 washed wool in the Hereford Group, a difference equal to approximately £12-£15 per 100 acres after allowing for the costs of washing the flock. For Exmoor Horn wool, where the premium offered for washed wool is considerably lower, the effect of washing sheep would be to reduce the total value of the wool by over is. per fleece, without allowing for the cost of washing. In the case of the Brendon Group, the net effect of washing sheep producing wool of the Light and Heavy Cross- bred type, is slightly to reduce the total value of the fleece except in the case of Heavy cross-bred No. 1 wool, for which a small increasesof 21d. per fleece would result from washing. If it is assumed that a net gain of at least 6d. per fleece is required to make the washing of sheep yield any worth-while economic advantage from the process, it can be calculated that at 1952 prices for greasy wool, the price of Exmoor Horn washed wool would need to be 121d. per lb. higher than the price per lb. of greasy, which would bring Exmoor Horn No. 1 washed wool to 78-1d. per lb. as against the figure of 751d. actually offered in 1952. Similarly for the Cross-bred the premium for washed wool would need to be from 10d. per lb. for Heavy Cross-bred No. 2 to 11d, per lb. for Light Cross- bred No. 1 instead of the actual premiums offered of 8id. and 10d. per lb. respectively. It is worth noting that the actual premium per lb. is not the critical factor, but the percentage by which the price per lb. of washed wool exceeds that of greasy. A premium of 10d. per lb. for Heavy Cross-bred No. 2 fleece wool would, at 1952 prices, make washing this type of wool an economic proposition; this same premium, if applied to wool of the Diamond teg, ewe and wether, which commands a higher price, would result in the washed wool being worth nearly is. per fleece less than if shorn in the grease. Similarly, a premium of 10d. per lb. for Heavy Crossbred No. 2 during 1951, when the price for all types of wool was considerably greater, would have made washing this type of wool un- economic. Based on the assumption that a washed fleece loses 15 per cent of its weight compared with the same fleece if unwashed, then, at 1952 wool prices, to yield an advantage of 6d. per fleece from washing, the price per lb. of washed wool needs to be at least 20 per cent greater than for greasy wool. Table 37 shows that this requirement was met, for the 1952 clip, only for the types of wool generally encountered in the Hereford Group; the premium for washed Exmoor Horn wool was only 13 to 14 per cent, and for Light and Heavy Cross-bred wool 16 110 to 1812-- per cent above the price for greasy wool. Why it should be that those responsible for fixing the price level for wools of different types should see fit to encourage the washing of wool on the farm for certain descriptions of wool, while at the same time actively discourage it in other cases, is not clear, but almost certainly arises from technical and marketing consider- ations involved in the wool trade, a field in which the layman may well hesitate to tread. As far as the wool grower is con- cerned, however, it is sufficient to remark that unless the price per lb. of washed wool fixed for the particular type of wool pro- duced is at least 20 per cent higher than that fixed for the same wool in the grease, it seems unlikely that washing the flock will be a paying proposition.

Recent trends in the farm price level of home-produced wool Whatever the future may hold for wool prices now that wool has been added to the list of Review commodities, for which the producers' price is guaranteed, and now that the actual marketing of wool is in the hands of a producers' market- ing board, there can be no doubt as to the very great resentment among sheep farmers in upland districts concerning the hand- ling, or rather the mishandling, of wool prices over the last decade. The outline of what has occurred is best indicated by a consideration of the movement of the price index for home- produced wool over this period, in comparison with the cor- responding movements ofthe price indices of other agricultural products. In 1947, when the general index (1936-8 = 100) for all agricultural products stood at 241, the index for milk was 234, eggs 249, fat cattle 203, fat sheep 225, bacon pig 255, barley 235, wheat 205 and sugar beet 263, the price index for wool stood at 150, having actually fallen from 153 in 1942. In 1948 the index for wool jumped to 212; in 1949 it was 224, and in 1950 when milk reached 275, fat sheep 270, bacon pigs 370, eggs 290, wheat 273 and barley 277, the index for wool still lagged well behind at 231. During the period from the out- break of war until the establishment of the Wool Marketing Board, which handled its first wool clip in 1951, the Govern- ment was the sole purchaser of wool, and the price paid to far- mers was such that a considerable profit, at least during the latter years, accrued to the purchasing body. That this should have been the case with a commodity of prime importance to upland farmers who, of all agricultural producers, have bene- fited least from the increased prices accruing to agricultural 111 producers as a whole, led to an understandable amount of dis- satisfaction among them with regard to the level of wool prices between 1939 and 1950. In 1951 however, following the world boom in wool prices that commenced in the previous year, the average price paid to wool producers in this country was raised to 72d. per lb. from an average of 27d. in 1950, an increase of no less than 167 per cent. Although this very high price was welcomed by upland farmers as a belated acknowledgment of underpayment over past years, a welcome, however, considerably mitigated by the knowledge that, paid in this fashion, in a lump sum, it attracts considerably more tax than would have been the case if paid over a number of years, yet this high price itself occasioned a considerable amount of disquietude among farmers, and proved an unsettling influence. It was clear to all that wool prices could not be maintained at that level, yet there was no indication to what extent they would be reduced at subsequent price reviews. In fact, the fall in wool prices in the following year 1952 was equal to 25 per cent of the 1951 level, but this fall has been cushioned by the utilisation of funds left in the hands of the Wool Board from the sale of the 1950 Wool Clip, and there is still no indication as to the level at which the Government will be prepared to support the price of home- produced wool when these reserve funds are exhausted. While this uncertainty persists, sheep farmers in upland areas can only make tentative steps to adjust production to current wool prices. These steps, as far as the N.W. Hereford and Brendon areas are concerned, are taking the form of a slight increase in the number of breeding ewes kept, in some cases at the expense of a reduction in the number of cattle, and a tendency to keep back a number of wether lambs which would previously have been sold off as lambs; in the case of the Ex- moor Group, however, there is evidence on some farms, but, as yet, only on a minority, of a more fundamental change in policy. As described in a previous section this development involves the establishment of flocks of adult wether sheep which, owing to their ability to live on the hill land all the year round, can be maintained without the need to reduce the num- ber of other stock on the farm. This development, however, is dependent upon the maintenance of relatively high prices for wool of the type produced in this region, and, if a stable price could be guaranteed for a period of years, there is little doubt that the maintenance, of wether flocks would become general on Exmoor, and production from the hill land would be very 112 considerably increased. Indeed, it is very difficult to imagine any provision that would be anything like as effective as a relatively high wool price, guaranteed for a period of years, in bringing about that increase in productivity in hill areas which successive Governments have consistently proclaimed as so highly desirable in the national interest. Not only is it essen- tial that the price of hill-type wools be adequate, but the pro- viso that it should be guaranteed for a period of years is also of the greatest importance. No agricultural producers, least of all sheep and cattle raisers, can plan for the future on the basis of short-term and largely unpredictable changes in price emphasis. In fact, there could hardly be a more acute example of the high degree of short-term instability that a system of controlled prices can introduce into the economy of a district by repeated changes in price emphasis than that exhibited in these upland areas over the last five years. The Calf-Rearing Subsidy was introduced in 1947 and, following its modification in amount and incidence on more than one occasion, it was finally withdrawn in 1950, only to be re-instated in 1952; con- currently with these changes a steep increase in wool prices, from a previous very low level was decided upon in 1948, and was followed by a phenomenal increase in 1951, a sharp fall of 25 per cent in 1952, and the almost certain prospect of a fur- ther decline of unpredictable extent in 1953. Each year there has also been the question as to whether or not the Hill sheep and cattle subsidies would be renewed, and, if so, at what level, and for what classes of stock. And overlying the whole posi- tion has been the fact that for very many farmers in these up- land areas, especially on the smaller farms, the production of milk for sale has been a more attractive venture than the raising of either sheep or store cattle. Any upland farmer who attempts to interpret the need of the nation for the agricultural products that he can produce in terms of the relative prices offered, rather than in terms of the exhortations of official spokesmen (and there are few that can afford to let their pro- duction be guided by other than economic considerations) may be excused if he experiences considerable perplexity as to exactly what is expected of him in view of these numerous, erratic and seemingly unpredictable changes in price emphasis. A major difficulty experienced in providing adequate incen- tives of the type needed to bring about a desired expansion of specific commodities, in particular areas, arises from the fixing of national prices for most commodities, and although excep- tions are met with, notably in the case of Hill Sheep and Cattle 113 Subsidies, these localised price differentials, have generally been too small in amount and restricted in scope to play a decisive part in the regional distribution of production. Over the last decade the price of milk has been set at a level designed to foster a considerable expansion of production. It has, however, also resulted in milk production becoming relatively more attractive than store-rearing in many of the traditional stock-rearing areas, and in some of these areas milk production is becoming firmly established, a development the desirability of which is currently the subject of a considerable difference of opinion. It is, however, worth bearing in mind that economic opportunity as much as suitability of soil, clim- ate, etc., has in the past played a large part in determining the "traditional " products of many farming areas. The fact that many marginal areas are traditionally devoted to the rearing of sheep and cattle is at least conditioned by the circumstance that during the period in which this tradition was established motor transport did not exist, and with it the possibility of entering the liquid milk market. That accessibility to markets, rather than natural conditions,can be more important in deter-- mining the" traditional " type of farming practised in a dis- trict is well exemplified by the Pennine districts of Yorkshire and Lancashire where, in close proximity to large industrial areas, a "tradition " of liquid milk and egg production has been firmly established; land of this type and altitude, were it situated away from large consuming centres, would have developed into a "traditional " store -rearing area, and much of it would be rough grazing at that. In view of changed economic circumstances, the argument that districts which in the past have been traditionally devoted to stock-raising should remain so needs to be supported by something more than an appeal to tradition itself. There are, however, very good reasons, technical and economic, why, in the national interest, it is desirable for at least the medium- and larger-sized farms in marginal areas to rear sheep and beef cattle to the greatest possible extent, rather than to produce milk for sale. Yet the fact remains that on very many farms in these areas the production of milk for sale, even at a rela- tively low level of efficiency, is more attractive than store rearing, and is likely to remain so while the prices for milk and other livestock products are uniformly determined for the country as a whole, irrespective of regional differences in physical and economic circumstances. Experience of the Calf- Rearing Subsidy in the past suggests that this type of incentive, 114 payable without distinction of district, is more likely to attract lowland farmers into the rearing of beef stores at the expense of milk-production than it is to have this effect in upland regions. A calf-subsidy, payable at a fairly high level only on farms in upland marginal and hill districts, coupled with a relatively high price for wool produced in these areas would, if sufficient to raise farm incomes in these districts to the level at present made possible by the sale of milk, certainly attract all but the smallest farms away from the production of milk for sale to the maximum production of sheep and beef cattle. The general application of a calf-subsidy and wool prices at the level contemplated here to the whole country would, however, not only be very expensive indeed, but would soon engender a shortage of milk supplies from lowland districts. Present policy with regard to wool prices appears to be based upon the idea that the total sum determined for wool at the annual Price Review should be allocated to the numerous descriptions and grades of wool in proportion to their respec- tive market prices. Adherence to this pricing policy involves the neglect of a valuable economic device which could probably be more effective than any other in promoting an increase in sheep and wool production in hill farming districts such as Exmoor. In an economy in which most agricultural products are subject to central planning by physical controls or price incentives, or both, there is nothing inevitable about the method of detailed price determination based on market value now adopted for wool, although the provision of special price incen- tives for certain types of wool would be a matter for the central planning authority rather than for a producers' marketing board. There is, in fact, already in existence a special premium of 3d. per lb. payable on wool from hill sheep, but this level of premium is much too small, both in absolute terms and in relation to the basic price of wool to be effective in stimulating any worth-while increase in sheep numbers; but there is clearly no reason either of principle or practice why prices for certain types of wool could not be maintained at a level considerably higher than would be justified by considerations of market price alone. It is greatly to be hoped therefore that at future price reviews due consideration will be given to the vital part that the annual wool cheque plays in the economy ofthe upland regions; the poorer and hillier the land the larger is the part sheep play in the economy of the farm, and the larger the pro- portion that the sale of wool represents in the total production H* 115 of the sheep enterprise. A relatively high and stable level of price for wool from hill sheep will enable farmers to maintain sheep production at the maximum level in those districts which are the source of sheep stock upon which the greatly desired expansion of sheep production in lowland areas ultimately, in large part, depends.

Summary and Conclusions During the year 1950/51, data relating to the costs and production of the sheep enterprise were obtained for three groups of upland farms in the West of England, two groups in S.W. Somerset and one in N.W. Hereford. The farms in the Exmoor Group are of the hill type, aver- aging 520 acres in total area of which over 300 acres are in rough grazing. Of the" in -ground" over 85 per cent is under grass with an average rental of 13s. per acre; the rental value of the rough grazings averages 2s. 7d. per acre. Farms in the Brendon Hill Group are marginal in type, averaging around 180 acres in extent, and with a rental value for the land of 20s. per acre. Eighty per cent of the total area is under grass, and rough grazings account for nearly 20 acres per farm. In the Hereford Group farms are intermediate in type, consisting mainly of medium quality land with varying proportions of marginal and better quality land, but lying at an elevation of 500 to 800 feet. On average, one-third of the total farm area is in tillage crops, and the average rental value is also 20s. per acre. In spite of the fact that the rental value of the land is the same in the Brendon and Hereford groups, all aspects of soil, climate, elevation, exposure and rainfall are less favourable in the Brendon Group, while conditions in relation to all these factors are still less favourable in the Exmoor Group. The density of stocking per acre in the Hereford Group is approximately 10 per cent greater than in the two Somerset groups, but whereas sheep absorb the production of only 36 per cent of the total farm acreage in the Hereford Group, and 40 per cent in the Brendons, the corresponding proportion is 55 per cent in the Exmoor Group. The breeds of sheep maintained in the Hereford Group are almost entirely limited to Clun Forest, but flocks were specially selected on this basis. In the Brendon Group Closewools and Closewool crosses form the preponderant breed, and on Exmoor the Exmoor -Horn accounted for the overwhelming 116 majority of breeding ewes maintained. In the Exmoor Group all flocks are self-maintained for ewe stock, but in the Brendon Group the flocks are divided between self-contained and flying flocks, and in the Hereford Group a small proportion of re- placements is purchased. Valuation of sheep per 100 acres was highest in the Here- ford Group at £2,355, mainly due to the higher value per head for all classes of sheep. Sheep numbers per 100 acres were lower in the Brendon than in the Exmoor Group, but average values per head were higher, and total valuation of sheep aver- aged £1,695 in the Brendon Group and £1,691 per 100 acres in the Exmoor Group. The valuation of sheep equipment averaged £171 per 100 acres in the Hereford Group, nearly twice as high as in the Brendon Group, and three times as high as in the Exmoor Group. In the Hereford Group an extremely high rate of turnover of the breeding flock was achieved, and sales of draft ewes averaged 91 per 100 acres, equal to 53 per cent of the breeding flock, compared with less than 20 per cent in the Brendon and 24 per cent in the Exmoor Group. Sales of draft ewes alone in the Hereford Group exceeded total sales of all sheep in each of the two Somerset groups. Sales of lambs formed the most important sale product in the Brendon Group, and hoggs, mainly two- and four-tooth wethers in the Exmoor Group. The average price per head for all types of sheep was highest in the Hereford Group, the difference being greatest for draft ewes. The number of lambs reared per 100 ewes put to ram aver- aged 116 in the Hereford Group, 91 in the Brendons and 97 per 100 ewes in the Exmoor Group. Lambs reared per 100 acres averaged 199, 150 and 143 in the three groups respec- tively. Purchases of sheep, mainly breeding stock, averaged £212 per 100 acres in the Hereford Group, nearly twice as great as in the Brendon Group, and four times as great as in the Exmoor Group. Owing to the very high level of sales achieved, total production of sheep averaged £1,384 per 100 acres in the Hereford Group compared with £758 in the Brendon and £729 in the Exmoor Group. The total value of wool sold in the Exmoor Group, owing to the greater number of adult sheep carried at shearing time, was more than £100 per 100 acres greater than in either of the other groups, but the total production of sheep and wool com- bined at £1,863 per 100 acres in the Hereford Group was £610 117 greater than for the Brendon Group, and nearly £500 greater than for the Exmoor Group. The higher level of production in the Hereford Group could not have been sustained without a higher level of nutrition provided for sheep, and all important items of food costs, especially for folded roots, cake, corn and hay were consider- ably higher in this group; total foods at £362 per 100 acres were more than twice as high as in the Brendon Group and nearly two-and-one-half as great as in the Exmoor Group. Sheep in the Somerset groups receive nothing like the quantity and range of foods provided in the Hereford Group, and rely much more upon grazing. The cost of grazing in the Brendon Group was £60 per 100 acres higher than in the Hereford Group, and £100 higher than in the Exmoor Group owing to the cheap grazing provided by the large areas of hill land in this group. There were only slight differences in the per 100 acre cost of total labour between the groups and, although the cost of miscellaneous expenses were considerably higher in the Here- ford Group, this item accounts for less than 10 per cent of total production costs. Although the higher level of production in the Hereford Group involved greater production costs, the increase in cost was proportionately less, and total costs in this group at £881 per 100 acres were only £297 higher than in the Exmoor Group, and £156 higher than in the Brendons, with the result that the margin per 100 acres in the Hereford Group at £982 was nearly £200 greater than in the Exmoor Group, and more than £450 greater than in the Brendons.. If the results are compared on the basis of production, cost and margin per £100 rent, per £100 valuation of sheep and sheep equipment, and on the basis of cost and margin per £100 of production, the most satisfactory result in all cases is shown by the Exmoor Group, followed by the Hereford Group. The Hereford Group has the highest level of production per £100 of direct labour employed upon sheep, but in the relationship between overall costs and production, perhaps the most critical test of all, the Exmoor Group, owing to a highly satisfactory relationship between the cost of foods, including grazing, and the level of production, is clearly ahead of the Hereford Group, and both are a long way in advance of the Brendon Group. The reduction in the price of wool in 1952 will result in the revenue from the sales of wool falling by approximately £108 per 100 acres in the Hereford Group, £116 in the Brendon and 118 £151 in the Exmoor Group. To offset this fall in the price of wool an average increase in the price of fat and store sheep equal to about 8 per cent on 1951 prices would be needed in the Hereford Group, 15 per cent in the Brendon Group, and just over 20 per cent in the Exmoor Group. The actual price increase awarded for fat sheep and lambs in 1952 is under 5 per cent, with the result that, unless the price of draft ewes and store sheep increases more than in proportion to the increase for fat sheep, not even the Hereford Group will be able to maintain, in 1952, the level of production achieved in 1951, while the Exmoor Group is likely to suffer a net reduction of over £120 per 100 acres in total production from the sheep enterprise, a calculation that takes no account of increases in production costs in 1952. However, even allowing for an appreciable reduction in the level of margin per 100 acres resulting from the fall in wool prices there can be but little doubt that current prices for sheep and wool are adequate to maintain the numbers of sheep in upland districts at a high level, at least as far as the N.W. Hereford and Somerset areas are concerned. In the Hereford Group the potentialities of the land and of the breed of sheep are combined in a system of management that enables both to be realised in a high degree. An extremely rapid rate of turnover of the breeding flock is achieved, yielding large annual drafts of four-tooth breeding ewes of a type meet- ing an excellent demand from lowland farmers, both as grass- land and arable sheep. There is however fairly conclusive evidence that on some of these farms where a high proportion of wether lambs are fed out off roots during the winter, better economic results would be achieved if these lambs were sold earlier as stores, and the resources of land and labour now devoted to feeding them were concentrated upon the produc- tion of a still higher output of draft ewes. Not only are finan- cial results better under this system of management, but more draft ewes would be made available to speed the recovery of sheep numbers in lowland areas, and more store lambs would be available for feeding out on lowland farms. In the Exmoor Group it is also clear that the Exmoor Horn sheep are very well adapted to their environment; in this group, production costs are at a much lower level, in accordance with the lower potentialities afforded by soil and climatic conditions, but the level of production and the margin per 100 acres achieved are very satisfactory indeed for the type of land in- volved. Sheep numbers will undoubtedly remain at a high 119 level on Exmoor, but there is considerable scope for a sub- stantial increase if more effective use can be made of the hill grazings by sheep. Whether or not this further increase comes about is dependent mainly upon a relatively high price being maintained for wool of the Exmoor Horn type. This investi- gation has shown that the level of stocking with sheep can be considerably increased without detriment to other stock by the addition, to the existing complement of breeding ewes and lambs, of a substantial flock of adult wether sheep which can gain their living, from the age of twelve months old, entirely, or almost entirely, off the hill grazings. This development among some farms on Exmoor is, in fact, merely a reversion to the system of sheep management common forty or so years ago when the hill land in this district was thickly populated with wether sheep; it is a system of management that died out following a slump in wool prices, to the great detriment of the hill grazings, and its revival can be attributed to the same factor that made it universal at the earlier period, namely, relatively high wool prices. The revival of these wether flocks upon Exmoor is a development which is to be welcomed from almost every point of view, and not least in the national interest. The extra production, both of meat and wool which fol- lows upon this development is, as far as this upland district is concerned, a clear gain both in terms of increased productivity, which would not otherwise be forthcoming from this type of land, and in terms of improvement to the hill grazings them- selves. The extension and intensification of this development, however, is entirely dependent upon the maintenance of a relatively high price for wool of the type produced in these upland districts, and it is greatly to be hoped that, if necessary, a special production grant will be applied to maintain an ade- quate and stable price level for wool from hill sheep. Despite the fact that the Exmoor Horn breed of sheep appears to give very satisfactory results, the ewe flocks are not hardy enough to winter on the hill land and, for this reason, it is sometimes suggested that a hardier hill breed such as the Cheviot, Scotch Blackface, Swaledale, etc., should be substi- tuted for the native breed. Advice along these lines, however, appears to overlook the essential feature of the economic cir- cumstances under which these suggested breeds are kept in their own native districts. In these districts the hardy hill breeds form part of an integrated" three-tier" system of sheep husbandry, being the first link in a chain of breeding stages stretching from the hill areas, via intermediate uplands, right 120 down to the lowlands, which form the final market for sheep stocks originating in the hills. On the high hill lands the hardy hill breeds proper are kept, bred pure to provide draft ewes, which pass to the lower ranges of uplands where the first crossing stage is undertaken to yield Scotch Half-bred, Grey- face, etc.; the ewes of these crosses are then in turn drafted to the lowlands regions where they are crossed again, usually to a Down ram, to produce lambs, all of which, both ewe and wether, are destined for slaughter. This integrated, stratified," three-tier " system involves a gradation of land of varying altitude and quality extending over a considerable area, without which it cannot operate. Exmoor is but a small area of moderate elevation and, taking the form of an elevated plateau, there is no gradual transition to the lowlands through an intermediate upland area, and the conditions do not therefore exist for the establishment of the "three-tier " system. To introduce a breed of hill sheep from a district where it forms a link in an integrated system, on Exmoor, where no such system is in existence, is to invite dis- appointment. Apart from the question of whether these breeds can be "fitted to the ground" under the different circumstances of Exmoor, they will, if bred pure, be likely to produce draft ewes and store sheep of a breed and type for which no satisfactory local market exists. Certainly draft ewes of these breeds will not be at all readily accepted in lowland areas, and they are unlikely to find favour with farmers in the neighbouring Brendon Hills who are seeking a quite different type of breeding ewe. If however, as seems more realistic, Exmoor should be regarded as an intermediate upland area rather than as a hill district proper, then the first crossing stage might be Carried out there. There would certainly be a market in neighbouring lowland districts for a well-bred sheep of the Scotch Half-bred type, but cross-breeding involves the purchase of ewe-flock replacements of the appropriate breed and,in view of the great distance between Exmoor and the source of these replacements, the cost would in all probability prove prohibi- tive. In any case, the importance of maintaining a breed, the ewes of which will live on the hill ground throughout the winter, is limited; most Exmoor farms have a relatively large area of in-ground and, apart from some of the more exposed farms, there is usually ample room to accommodate the breeding flocks for the few months during the winter when conditions on the hill ground are too severe for the in-lamb ewes. In the Brendon Group the level of production achieved, 121 especially in relation to the cost of food input, is much less satisfactory than in the other two groups. Although total costs per 100 acres were £150 lower than in the Hereford Group, production is £600 lower and is actually £120 lower than in the Exmoor Group, although total costs were £140 per 100 acres higher. The margin in this group was £525 per 100 acres, equal to over 72 per cent of production costs and, although this margin will have declined in 1952, following the fall in wool prices, yet it should still be adequate to maintain sheep num- bers at a high level, at least on the medium and larger size of farms; on the smaller farms sheep have often to compete with milk-selling, and it is doubtful whether any appreciable increase in the numbers of sheep maintained on these farms will be forthcoming. Nevertheless, in comparison with the other two groups it is very difficult to avoid the conclusion that there is something less than satisfactory with sheep management policy in the Brendon Hills district, and the extensive experimenting that is proceeding there at the moment with many different breeds and crosses of sheep is witness to the fact that farmers are aware of this, and are actively seeking a solution. The evidence of this survey suggests that present price-cost relationships definitely favour the maximum production of draft ewes, and the sale of wether lambs as stores, rather than the production of fat sheep and lambs accompanied by a smaller breeding flock. Even if in the future the balance should tip in favour of fat sheep production, the type of sheep required in this district appears to be one which, bred pure, will yield a prolific draft ewe and an early maturing fat sheep or lamb, while at the same time being capable of withstanding climatic conditions in this upland area. Sheep of this type would almost certainly require rather more adequate provision in the way of winter foods, and for summer grazing if their full potentialities are to be realised, and this would involve some degree of intensification of pro- duction from the land itself. It is not suggested that anything approaching the rate of turnover of sheep and the level of food inputs found in the N.W. Hereford uplands would be possible on the Brendon Hills, but a concentration upon the maximum production of draft ewes, with the highest possible rate of turn- over of the flock that can be achieved under local conditions, and the disposal of wether lambs at an early stage might well prove to be one satisfactory answer to the rather difficult prob- lems of sheep breeding and management policy in this district. 122 There are already some encouraging signs of a crystallising- out of breeding policy. The hitherto rather widespread prac- tice of somewhat indiscriminate cross-breeding is more and more giving place to a settled breeding policy. Increasing num- bers of sheep-rearers are adopting the policy of mating their existing ewe flock to a succession of rams of the same breed, with the object of changing over entirely to the breed selected. At the moment considerable interest is being shown in the Border Leicester as the breed favoured, while good results have been obtained with the Kerry Hill and Dorset Down and, on a more restricted scale, with the Clun Forest breed. This development towards a number of different pure breeds should be followed, at a later stage, by the gradual elimination of the less suitable breeds and the concentration of breeding policy upon one or two breeds that prove best adapted to economic circumstances under local conditions. Such an adjustment will inevitably take a long time, and may well be overtaken by changed economic circumstances before it is complete; the rapidity with which the change can be accom- plished would be very greatly facilitated if it were possible for the National Agricultural Advisory Service, or some other body, to carry out controlled experiments in the area with a view to determining what breeds of sheep are best suited to the district; such experiments would certainly be followed with the keenest interest by farmers in this area. One drawback associ- ated with the appearance of a new breed in any district, and especially in the more isolated upland districts, is that there tends to be a certain amount of understandable prejudice against the newcomers in local markets, but, provided the new breed is well adapted to local conditions, and is superior to existing breeds, this prejudice is not likely to endure for long, especially in a district where breed policy is as fluid as it is at the moment in the Brendon Hills.

123 APPENDIX

TABLE A Average Acreage of Crops and Grassland Per Farm at June 1951, and Per Cent of Total Crops and Grass

N.W. Hereford Brendons Exmoor TILLAGE: Acres Acres Acres (1) Cereals: (a) Wheat . 11.2 5.0 0.6 0.4 (b) Barley . 11.4 5.1 3.5 2.1 1.3 0.6 (c) Oats . . 19.0 8.4 10-2 6.3 7.4 3.5 (d) Mixed Corn . 8.5 3.8 3.4 2.1 1.8 0.9 (e) Beans . 0-8 0.3

Total Cereals . 50.9 22.6 17.7 10.9 10.5 5.0 (2)Roots and Green Fodder: (a) For Sale: (I) Sugar Beet 1.9 0.8 (II) Potatoes 3.3 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.3 • Total 5.2 2.3 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.3 (b) For Feeding: (I) Mangolds 2.3 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.4 (II) Turnips 0.5 0.2 6.6 4.0 10.8 5.2 (III) Swedes . 5.4 2.4 1.7 1.0 1.1 . 0-5 (IV) Kale . 1.1 0.5 0.9 0-6 0.9 0.4 (V) Rape 1.1 0.5. (VI) Mixed Roots 5-5 2-5 2.3 1-4 3-8 1.8 (VII) Fodder Beet 0-5 0.2 0.1 0.1

Total 16-4 7.3 12.5 7.7 17.3 8.3 Total Roots & Green Fodder 21.6 9.6 13-3 8.2 17-9 8.6 (3) Other Tillage . 0.3 0.1 3.5 2-1 0-8 0.4 TOTAL TILLAGE 72.8 32.3 34.5 21.2 29.2 14.0 GRASSLAND: (1) Temporary Grass: (a) For Mowing 34.0 15.1 22.8 14.0 15.7 7.5 (b) For Grazing. 54.2 24.0 40-5 24.9 74.6 35.7 Total 88•2 39.1 63.3 38.9 90.3 43.2 (2) Permanent Grass: (a) For Mowing 13.5 6.0 8.8 5.4 13-4 6.4 (b) For Grazing.. 51.2 22.6 56.3 34.5 76.2 36.4 Total 64.7 28.6 65.1 39.9 89.6 42.8 TOTAL GRASSLAND 152.9 67.7 128-4 78.8 179.9 86.0 TOTAL CROPS AND GRASS . 225.7 100.0 162.9 100.0 209.1 100-0 Rough Grazings* . 13.9 6.1 18.1 11.1 314.7 150.5 TOTAL FARM ACREAGE 239.6 106-1 181.0 523.8 250.5 TOTAL ADJUSTED ACREAGE 226-9 100.5 167.9 103.1 276.5 132.2

* Including waste and woodlands. 124 TABLE B

Average Number of Stock Per Farm and Per 100 Adjusted Acres at June 1951. Number of Cow-Equivalent Units Per 100 Adjusted Acres for Each Class of Stock and as Per Cent of Total

AV1 RAGE PER 100 COW EQUIVALENTS PER PER CENT OF TOTAL AVERAGE PER FARM AuJUSTED ACRES 100 ADJUSTED ACRES COW EQUIVALENTS N.W. N.W. N.W. N.W. Here- Bren- Exmoor Here- Bren- Exmoor Here- Bren- Exmoor Here- Bren- Exmoor ford dons ford dons ford dons ford dons

:ATTLE: No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. 70 :lows . . 24.0 11.4 15.8 10.6 6.8 5.7 10.6 6.8 5.7 25.5 17.0 13.9 Dther Cattle:. Two years & over 7.4 6.3 11.2 3.3 3.8 4.0 3.3 3.8 4.0 7.9 9.5 9.7 One to two years 11.7 12.8 14.3 5.1 7.6 5.2 2.6 3.8 2.6 6.3 9.5 6.3 Under one year . 22.7 13.0 14.9 . 10.0 7.7 5.4 2.5 1.9 1.4 6.0 4.7 3.4 Total Other Cattle 41.8 32.1 40.4 18.4 19.1 14.6 8.4 9.5 8.0 20.2 23.7 19.4 Total Cattle . 65.8 43.5 56.2 29.0 25.9 20.3 19.0 16.3 13.7 45.7 40.7 33.3 SHEEP: Over one year . 113 119 ' 262 50 71 95 10.0 14.0 15.8 24.1 34.9 38.4 One year & under 139 65 199 61 39 72 10.2 6.5 9.0 24.5 16.2 21.9 Total Sheep . 252 184 461 111 110 167 20.2 20.5 24.8 48.6 51.1 60.3 --lorses . . 2.3 2.4 5.8 1.0 1.4 2.1 1.3 1.6 2.1 3.1 4.0 5.1 3igs . . . 3.4 3.5 2.4 1.5 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 'oultry . . 193 237 97 85 141 35 0.9 1.4 0.4 2-1 3.5 1.0 k.LL STOCK . • - - - - 41.6 40.1 41.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 TABLE C Monthly Distribution of Sheep Sales by Value: Per Cent of Total Annual Sales in Each Category

N.W. HEREFORD BRENDONS EXMOOR Draft Cull Draft Cull Draft Cull Ewes Ewes Lambs Hoggs Ewes Ewes Lambs Hoggs Ewes Ewes Lambs Hoggs % % % 0A 0/0 % 0//0 0A °A November . - - 6.8 - '33.2 16.3 13.6 22.1 12.6 December . - 7.3 12.6 24.6 9.9 10.8 6.9 2.6 Tanuary • - - 15.8 6.2 3.8 6.8 1.3 C7\ February . - 20.5 - 3.4 March . • - - 15.7 - 10.3 April . • - - 4.0 16.2 May . • - - - Tune . • - - 1.9 - 10.4 5.7 1-2 2.2 Tuly . . - 12.6 9.8 22.1 2.8 13.9 10-4 1.8 August . . 5.9 9.0 2.4 - 44.6 10.3 30.0 35.0 39-6 3.3 24.8 September . 94.1 57.3 10.5 1.6 55.4 28.7 17.8 19.7 65.0 35-2 50.3 48.2 Dctober . - 13.8 - 29.3 15.0 31.7 14.4 10.6 6.5 Year . . 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 TABLE D N.W. Hereford: Analysis of Aggregate Sales of Wool

WEIGHT OF PRICE WOOL MAX. REALISED PRICE/ Total Per cent LB. Total Per lb. WASHED WOOL: Fleece Wool: Quality lb. % d. £ d. Diamond Teg, Ewe and Wether 99 1.0 1061 43.9 106-4 Pick Teg • • 629 6.2 1041 272-8 104-1 Pick Ewe and Wether 2,267 22-5 1041 987.4 104.5 Pick Ewe and Wether No. 2 1,076 10-7 991 447-0 99.5 Super Ewe and Wether 1,778 17.7 1021 759.2 102.5 Super Ewe and Wether No. 2 1,177 11.7 971 477.9 97.4 Shafty Pick Teg . 45 0.4 97 18-2 97.0 Fine Cast . . . . 587 5-8 901 2208. 90.2 Pick and Super Grey and Black ' 214 2.1 821 73.7 82.7 Fine Half-bred Hogg . . 33 0.3 83 11.5 83.0 Fine Half-bred Ewe and Wether 110 1.1 83 36.6 79-9 Pick Radnor and Cross-bred . 16 0.2 871 5.8 87-0 Cast Radnor and Cross-bred . . 15 0.2 80 5.0 80.0 Fine Radnors, Cross-breds and Kempies 51 0.5 87 18-6 87.0 Deep Radnors, Cross-breds and Kempies 3 - 831 10 80.0 Red Kemp and Light Grey Welsh . 73 0.7 741 22.7 74.5 Red Kemp and Light Grey Radnor and Cross-bred 9 0.1 741 2.8 74.5 Total Fleece Wool 8,182 81.2 3,404.9 99-9 Lambs Wool: Shropshire . . . 614 6.1 75 189.3 74.0 Fine Cross-bred and Radnor 295 2-9 74 910 74.0 Grey: Shropshire and Kerry 115 1.2 60 28.7 59.9 Total Lambs Wool 1,024 10.2 309.0 72.4 Total Washed Wool . 9,206 91.4 3,713.9 96.8

GREASY WOOL: Fleece Wool: Pick Teg • • 8 0.1 861 2.9 86.2 Pick Ewe and Wether 5 0.1 861 1.8 86.2 Pick Ewe and Wether No. 2 126 1.2 811 42-8 81.5 Super Ewe and Wether 15 0.1 85 5.3 84.8 Super Ewe and Wether No..2 78 0.8 801 26.1 80.3 Total Fleece Wool . 232 2.3 78.9 81.6 Lambs Wool: Shropshire . . . 77 0.8 64 17.3 53.9 Fine Cross-bred and Radnor 160 1.6 631 42.4 63.5 Kerry . . 227 2-2 64 60.5 64-0 Grey: Shropshire and Kerry 31 0.3 50 6.5 50.0 Total Lambs Wool 495 4.9 126.7 61.4 Other Wool: Pluck . 137 1.3 19.7 34.5 Sand Kemp 6 0.1 0.1 4.0 Total Other Wool . 143 14 19.8 33.2 Total Greasy Wool 870 .8-6 225.4 62.0 TOTAL WOOL 10,076 100.0 3,939.3 93.8

127 TABLE E Brendons: Analysis of Aggregate Sales of Wool

WEIGHT OF PRICE WOOL MAX. REALISED PRICE/ Total Per cent LB. Total Per lb. WASHED WOOL: Fleece Wool: Quality lb.• % d. £ d. Exmoor Horn . . . . No. 1 142 1.30 1011 601 101.5 Light Cross-bred . . . . No. 1 632 5.80 82f 216.5 82.2 Light Cross-bred . . . . No. 2 24 0.22 78 7.8 78.0 Heavy Cross-bred . . . . No. 1 725 6-65 80 241.7 80.0 Heavy Cross-bred . . . . No. 2 135 1.24 76 42.8 76.0 Down Cross . . . . • . No. 2 79 0.72 82 27.0 82.0 Devon ...... No. 1 52 0-48 621 13.5 62.2 Total Fleece Wool . . 1,789 16.41 609.4 81.8 Lambs Wool: Exmoor Horn . . . . No. 2 86 0.79 . 71f 25-6 71.2 Cross-bred . . . . . No. 1 198 181 711 57.7 69-9 Down Cross . . . . . No. 2 48 0.44 65 13.0 65.0 Total Lambs Wool . . 332 3.04 - 96.3 69.6 Other Wool: Pluck . • • • • 63 0.58 14-5 55.2 Total Washed Wool . . . 2,184 20-03 7202. 79.1 GREASY WOOL: Fleece Wool: Exmoor Horn . . . . . No. 1 1,328 12-18 881 489.7 88.5 Exmoor Horn . . . . . No. 2 374 3.43 86 134.0 86.0 Light Cross-bred . . . . No. 1 2,840 26.05 70 828-4 70-0 Light Cross-bred . . . . No. 2 270 2.48 671 75.6 67.2 Heavy Cross-bred . . . . No. 1 959 8.80 68 271-6 68.0 Heavy Cross-bred . . . . No. 2 210 193 651 57.1 65.2 Down Cross...... No. 1 819 7.51 73/ 250.0 73.2 Down Cross . . . . . No. 2 65 0-60 691 18.8 69.4 Devon . . . . . No. 2 10 0-09 55 2.3 55.0 Super Ewe and Wether . . . 73 0.67 85 25.6 84.2 Massam Cotts 54. 0-49 59 13.3 59.0 Total Fleece Wool . . 7,002 64.23 2,166.4 74.3 Lambs Wool: Exmoor Horn . . . . No. 2 100 0.92 61i 25.7 61.7 Cross-bred . . . . . No. 1 464 4-25 62 118.3 61.2 Cross-bred . . . . . No. 2 262 2.40 59 64.4 59.0 Down Cross . . . . . No. 1 438 4.02 591 1051 57.6 Total Lambs Wool . . 1,264 11.59 313.5 59.5 Other Wool: Locks ...... 234 2-15 36-8 37.7 Pluck . . . . • • 201 1.84 44-7 53.4 Grey Wool . . . . . 17 0.16 3.4 48.0 Total Other Wool . . . 452 4.15 84.9 45.1 Total Greasy Wool . . . 8,718 79.97 2,564-8 70-6 TOTAL WOOL . . . . . 10,902 100.00 3,285.0 72.3

128 TABLE F

Exmoor Group: Analysis of Aggregate Sales of Wool

WEIGHT OF PRICE WOOL Max. REALISED Quality Price Total Per cent per lb. Total Per lb. lbs. d. d. WASHED WOOL . Nil

GREASY WOOL: lbs. d. d. Fleece Wool: Exmoor Horn No. 1 16,803 50-20 88+ 6,196-1 88-5 Exmoor Horn No. 2 3,524 10-53 86 1,262-8 86.0 Light Cross-bred No. 1 5,032 15-04 70 1,467-6 70-0 Light Cross-bred No. 2 1,313 3.92 671 367-9 67-2 Heavy Cross-bred No. 1 874 2-61 68 247-7 60-0 Down Cross . No. 1 241 0-72 73+ 73-6 73-2 Cast Half-bred Ewe and Wether . 228 0-68 64 60-8 64-0 Halfbred: Greys and Blacks 82 0-25 55+ 17-1 50-0 Cotts . 8 0-02 2-1 63.0 Total Fleece Wool 28,105 83.97 9,695-7 82.8 Lambs Wool: • Exmoor Horn No. 1 2,402 7-18 65 644-7 64-4 Exmoor Horn No. 2 544 1-62 611 139-4 61.5 Cross-bred . No. 1 432 1-29 62 108-0 60-0 Total Lambs Wool 3,378 10-09 892-1 63-4 Other Wool: Locks . 1,406 4-20 218-8 37-3 Locks and Pieces 105 0-31 3-6 8-2 Pluck . 477 1-43 105-5 53-1 Total Other Wool 1,988 5-94 327-9 39-6 TOTAL WOOL • 33,471 100-00 10,915-7 78-3

129 TABLE G

Monthly Distribution of Cow-Equivalent Weeks; Average Number Per Acre of Grazing and as Per Cent of Total

EXMOOR N.W. Hereford Brendons Farm Hill

No. % No. % No. % No. % November 2.40 7-6 2.26 8.7 1.72 9.0 0.54 9.4 December 2.05 6-5 2.00 7.7 1.13 5.9 0.44 7-7 January . 2.00 6.3 1.64 6.3 1.17 6.1 0-22 3.8 February ‘. 1.97 6.3 1.56 6.0 1.18 6.2 0.16 2.8 March . 2.07 6.6 1.50 5.7 1.74 9.1 0.12 2-1 April . 2.35 7.5 1.96 7.5 2.02 10.5 0.17 2.9 WINTER 12.84 40.8 10.92 41.9 8.96 46.8 1.65 28.7 May 2-76 8.8 2-29 8.7 2.04 10.7 0.37 6.5 June 3.39 10.7 2.74 10.5 1.82 9.5 0.73 12-7 July . 3.37 10.7 2-76 10.6 1.46 7.6 0.95 16.6 August . 3.35 10.6 2.66 10.2 1.54 8.0 0.90 15-7 September 3.03 9.6 2.48 9.5 1.63 8.5 0.73 12.7 October . 2.76 8.8 2.24 8.6 1.70 8.9 0.41 7.1 SUMMER 18.66 59.2 15-17 58.1 10.19 53-2 4.09 71.3 YEAR 31.50 100.0 26.09 100.0 19.15 100.0 5-74 100.0

130 • •1

TABLE H Per Cent Distribution of Total Cow-Equivalent Weeks of Grazing Between Various Categories of Stock for Winter and Summer Six Month Periods and for the Year

EXMOOR N.W. HEREFORD BRENDONS Farm Hill Winter Summer Year Winter Summer Year Winter Summer Year Winter Summer Year 0/0 CATTLE: 0/0 COWS 32.4 27.4 29.4 17.8 19.8 19.0 14.2 11.6 12.8 Other Cattle: 1.0 0.1 0.3 • Two years & over 5.9 3.7 4.6 9.5 11.8 10.9 14.2 19.0 16.8 16.9 34.4 29.4 One to two years 0.8 11.4 7.1 9.0 9.1 9.0 5.3 10.7 8.2 • Under one year . 4.9 3.5 0.9 4.9 3.3 0.4 3.2 2.0 0.9 3.0 2.0 1.3 1.0 Total Other Cattle 7.6 20.0 15.0 18.9 24.1 21.9 20.4 32.7 27.0 16.9 40.6 33.9 Total Cattle . 40.0 47.4 44.4 36.7 43.9 40.9 34.6 44.3 39.8 17.9 40.7 34.2 SHEEP: Over one year 45.4 32.9 38.0 46.4 36.7 40.7 41.9 35.7 38.6 64.5 48.3 52.9 Six to twelve months 7.4 3.0 8.8 3.7 17.3 8.1 4.3 Under six months 1.2 14.3 8.5 13-1 7.6 14.2 7.5 7.2 5.2 Total Sheep . 52.8 47.2 49.5 55.2 49.8 52.0 59.2 49.9 54.2 68.8 55.5 59.3 Other Stock . 7.2 5.4 6.1 8.1 6.3 7.1 6.2 5.8 6.0 13.3 3.8 6.5 TOTAL STOCK 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 TABLE I

Monthly Distribution of Cow-Equivalent Weeks of Grazing Between Different Classes of Stock: Per Cent of Monthly Totals

EXMOOR N.W. HEREFORD BRENDONS Farm Hill

Cattle Sheep Other Cattle Sheep Other Cattle Sheep Other Cattle Sheep Other 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 % 0/0 % 6.8 November 45.3 48.0 6.7 35.2 57.7 7.1 37.5 56.8 5.7 14.8 78.4 42.3 49.8 7.9 32.5 59.5 8.0 44.7 46.8 8.5 11.2 80.5 8.3 December 16.7 January 40.3 51.9 7.8 39.2 51.4 9.4 41.9 49.9 8.2 18.9 64.4 p-, 51.3 22.8 t.,..4 February 39.9 52.4 7.7 41.1 49.4 9.5 41.3 51.1 7.6 25.9 N.) 38.0 55.0 7.0 42.6 48.7 8.7 27.9 66.9 5.2 33.9 36.2 29.9 March . 221 April . 34.1 59.7 6.2 32.6 60.8 6.6 24.1 71.5 4.4 251 52.8 13.3 WINTER 40.0 52.8 7.2 36.7 55.2 8.1 34.6 59.2 6.2 17.9 68.8 52.4 41.8 5.8 46.3 45.9 7.8 37.8 571 51 61.0 31.5 7.5 May . 3.7 June 44.8 50.4 4.8 42.3 51.4 6.3 41.9 52.5 5.6 41.5 54.8 50.7 4.9 431 50.6 6.3 52.1 40.9 7.0 32.3 64.8 2.9 July . 44.4 2.7 August . 44.7 50.3 5.0 44.9 48.6 6.5 49.4 44.0 6.6 36.4 60.9 48.9 45.4 5.7 43.4 51.3 5.3 46.8 47.5 5.7 44.5 52.2 3.3 September 5.9 October 51.0 43.0 6.0 43.6 50.5 5.9 411 53.5 5.4 43.3 50.8 3.8 SUMMER 47.4 47.2 5.4 43.9 49.8 6.3 44.3 49.9 5.8 40.7 55.5 6.5 YEAR 44.4 49.5 61 40..9 52.0 71 39.8 54.2 6.0 34.2 59.3 ,