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SOME ECONOMIC ASPECTS of the SHEEP INDUSTRY in the WEST of ENGLAND Report No

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SOME ECONOMIC ASPECTS of the SHEEP INDUSTRY in the WEST of ENGLAND Report No LNjNI FOUNpATION OF ACZ1ICULTURAL E66PO.L1103 LIBRARY UNIVERSITY OF BRISTOL DEPARTMENT of ECONOMICS (Agricultural Economics). SOME ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE SHEEP INDUSTRY IN THE WEST OF ENGLAND Report No. 1 Store Lamb Production in the Upland Areas of S.W. Somerset by R. R. JEFFERY Price 5s. .. i . SOME ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE SHEEP INDUSTRY IN THE WEST OF ENGLAND Report No. 1 Store Lamb Production in the Upland Areas of S.W. Somerset General THE changes brought about in the structure of British agri- culture, and especially in the relative importance of the various agricultural products by the exigencies of wartime and post- war conditions have been very great indeed. Nowhere has the change been more striking than in the case of mutton and lamb production which fell from a pre-war (1937-39) average of 214,000 tons to 117,000 tons in 1947, and has since recovered to approximately 149,000 tons in 1950. TABLE I Annual Production of Mutton and Lanb and of Beef in the United Kingdom Average 1937-8-9 to 1949 Mutton and Lamb Beef Tons Tons (000) % (000) % 1937-39 Average 214 100-0 591 100-0 1940 . 227 106-1 557 94-2 1941 . 176 82-2 523 88-5 1942 . 171 79-9 453 76-6 1943 . 159 74-3 445 75-3 1944 . 442 66-4 487 824 1945 . 134 62-6 517 87-5 1946 . 152 71-0 538 91-0 1947 . 117 54-7 479 81-0 1948 . 123 57-5 470 79-5 1949 . 140 654 502 84-9 1950* 149 69-6 605 1024 * Approximate figures. Source: Annual Abstract and Monthly Digest of Statistics A similar but less marked fall took place in the production of beef. The lowest level of beef production was reached in 1943, but by 1946 production had recovered to 91 per cent of the pre-war level. The following year, however, saw a sharp set-back, and the fall was continued in 1948, when beef pro- duction was 79.5 per cent of pre-war, and only 25,000 tons per annum above the lowest point reached in 1943. By 1949 the 277 effect of the Calf Rearing Subsidy began to be felt, and beef production in that year reached 84.9 per cent of the 1937-39 average, but was still below the level reached in 1945 and 1946. In 1950 a further very marked increase occurred and total production advanced from 502,000 tons in 1949 to approxi- mately 605,000 tons in 1950, a figure 2.4 per cent higher than the pre-war average of 591,000 tons. Production of mutton and lamb in the United Kingdom between 1939 and 1950 declined to a much lower level than was the case with beef, and recovery has been at a considerably slower rate. Output fell steadily from 1940 to 1945, recovered somewhat in 1946, but, following the storms and severe winter conditions of the early months of 1947, production slumped to a new low level equal to only 54-7 per cent of the pre-war figure. The following three years 1948-50 record a slow but gradual recovery, but total production in 1950 at approximately 149,000 tons was only 69.6 per cent of pre-war output, and still below the level reached in 1946. Concurrently with changes in the quantities of home- produced meat supplies, some marked changes in the level of imported supplies have also occurred. TABLE 2 Estimated Mutton and Lamb, and Beef and Veal Supplies of the United Kingdom 1938 and 1949 Mutton and Lamb Beef and Veal 1938 1949 1938 1949 Tons Tons Tons Tons (000) (000) (000) 0/0 (000) % Home Supply . 211 38 140 28 605 51 528 59 Net Imports . 344 62 361 72 585 49 370 41 Total . 555 100 501 100 1,190 100 898 100 Source: Commonwealth Economic Committee: Meat 1950. Between 1938 and 1949 total supplies of beef and veal available for consumption in the United Kingdom have fallen by 292,000 tons, equal to 24.5 per cent of the 1938 figure. Mutton and lamb supplies have fallen by only 9.7 per cent, or 54,000 tons. Net imports of mutton and lamb during this period increased by 17,000 tons (4.9 per cent), to offset a fall in 278 home-production of 71,000 tons; net imports of beef and veal declined by 215,000 tons (36.7 per cent) and home-production by 77,000 tons. Thus, in 1949, although total supplies of mutton and lamb were approximately 10 per cent below the 1938 level, the proportion produced in the United Kingdom had fallen very considerably. In the case of beef and veal the proportion produced at home had increased, but total supplies were nearly 25 per cent lower. Apart from changes in the level of imports between 1938 and 1949 there have also occurred changes in the relative importance of exporting countries as the source of supply of our meat imports. Between 1938 and 1949 the proportion of mutton and lamb supplies drawn from the Commonwealth increased slightly; total supplies from New Zealand show a considerable increase offsetting a fall in Australian exports. In the group of foreign countries supplies of mutton and lamb from Argentina in 1949 were higher both in total quantity and as a proportion of total supplies, but this increase was more than offset by decreased supplies from other South American countries. Of total imports of mutton and lamb in 1949, 84 per cent was consigned from Commonwealth countries, in marked contrast to carcase beef and veal imports, of which over 70 per cent were drawn from foreign sources. The only suppliers of substantial quantities of carcase beef and veal who have maintained exports at near or above the 1938 level are New Zealand and Uruguay. Imports from Argentina, a country that supplies nearly two-thirds of our pre-war imports in this category have been reduced in 1949 to just over 60 per cent of the 1938 figure, while imports from Australia in 1949 were less than one-half the pre-war level- The net result of these changes is that in 1949, of a greatly reduced quantity of total imports of beef and veal, a slightly higher proportion is drawn from foreign sources. The overall supply position with regard to beef and veal is much less favourable than for mutton and lamb, and not only have total supplies fallen to a much greater extent, but we are dependent upon non-Commonwealth countries for over 70 per cent of our imports of beef and veal compared with only 16 per cent of imports of mutton and lamb. If attention is con- fined to home supplies however it is with regard to mutton and lamb production that the position is more serious. In 1950 the total production of beef in the United Kingdom reached approximately 102 per cent of the pre-war level, but mutton and lamb production was still less than 70 per cent of pre-wdr. 279 The decline, both in total output and in relative importance of mutton and lamb and, to a less extent, of beef and veal production in this country since 1939 was the result of deliber- ate economic policy dictated by the necessity of producing the TABLE 3 Per Cent. of Total United Kingdom Imports of Fresh, Chilled and Frozen Mutton and Lamb and Carcase Beef and Veal Consigned from Commonwealth and Foreign Countries 1938 and 1949 Mutton Beef and Lamb and Veal 1938 1949 1938 1949 °A °A °A 0/0 Comnzonwealth: New Zealand . 53-2 66-9 8-8 13-9 Australia . 27-5 17-1 19-5 14-7 Other . 0-1 1-2 Total Commonwealth 80-8 84-0 29-5 28-6 Irish Republic 0-3 0-2 Foreign: Argentina . 12-9 14-8 60-2 59-2 Chile . 2-9 0-9 Uruguay . 25 0-2 5-6 10-7 Other . 0-6 0-1 4-7 1-3 Total Foreign 18-9 16-0 70-5 71-2 Total Imports . 100-0 100-0 100.0 100.0 * Negligible. Source: Commonwealth Economic Committee: Meat 1950. maximum quantity of arable products for direct human con- sumption, and of ensuring an adequate milk supply. This policy was implemented along two main lines; direct controls such as cropping orders and rationing of livestock feeding stuffs and, of equal or even greater importance, by the relative price levels fixed for different agricultural products. The powerful price incentive given to milk production, particularly during the war years, can be seen from Table 4. By 1942 milk prices stood at 184 per cent of their pre-war level compared with 150 per cent for fat sheep, 141 per cent for fat lambs and 153 per cent for wool. At the same time, barley stood at 381 per cent and wheat at 164 per cent. By 280 1945 milk had advanced to 202 per cent, but fat sheep to only 171 per cent, fat lambs 160 per cent, and wool had actually fallen to 152 per cent. The discouragement given to the keeping of sheep through the relatively low price level assigned to sheep products succeeded only too well, and there was a decline in sheep numbers throughout the country from a total of 17,949,000 sheep in England and Wales in the pre-war period to 12,596,000 TABLE 4 Agricultural Price Index (1936-38 = 100) Fat Fat Fat Year Milk Cattle Sheep Lambs Wool Barley Wheat 1936-8 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 1940 141 136 128 120 116 194 128 1941 166 141 138 129 135 270 149 1942 184 152 150 141 153 381 164 1943.
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